Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

It's week 13 for fantasy team managers and you know what that means - crunch time! We'll go over waiver wire picks on this strange week that extends longer than usual with PIT vs. BAL on Wednesday afternoon, and also include some deep league plays and fantasy fool's gold looking forward into the playoffs. Good luck to your teams out there!

We'll also answer any lineup questions you might have in the chatroom or from Twitter and who knows - maybe a bet or two. You can't force these things!

This video features the songs and artists listed below, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license:
- Bridge to Grace - Weapon
- What i realized - No Better

Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line, 12/3/2020: Week 13: Crunch Time

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Each week we discuss the best waiver moves to make on teams that need a leg up, positional depth or just to pick up that guy that fell through the cracks for no apparent reason. Heading into Week 13, this is the time to go for all upside plays and scratch anyone from your team that you haven't, or won't play on a weekly basis. Points, people! It's all that matters now. You don't need to carry handcuffs or roster 3 QBs in a one QB league. Listen up for some big tips on players that are not owned by the majority of teams out there (50% owned or less).

QB:

Alex Smith (vs. DEN, 36% owned)
Denver is currently giving up almsot 20 points per game to QBs in standard scoring leagues. Yes, this is mostly because they get up to a big lead against teams who are then forced to throw the ball - but regardless of the circumstance we're just interested in the points! Smith had some bad weeks against BUF and SEA but those are some of the best defenses against the pass. Last week vs. OAK Smith put up 234 yards and 2 TDs. In what could be a high-scoring game against the Broncos, Smith is a good QB2 and a possible spot start if your current guy has a bad match-up (here's looking at you, Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick) or is just bad in general (Michael Vick, RG3).

WR:

Malcolm Floyd (@BAL, 40% owned)
Floyd has caught at least 4 balls in the past 4 games and Rivers has been targeting him a lot in the passing game. Although he didn't capitalize on those targets last week, Floyd faces a Ravens' secondary this week that has had trouble with recent passing attacks (can you say Ben Roethlisberger?) so if Rivers can get in a good rhythm with his offensive line and receivers we may see on of Floyd's best games this season.

Jarvis Landry (@NYJ, 22% owned)
After talking about Landry for the past few weeks, he's still owned by less than 1/4 of Yahoo leagues. Sucking up receptions in the slot like usual, Landry garnered 7 receptions for 50 yards and 2 TDs against Denver. He, along with QB Tannehill, has been performing at a high level for ther past few weeks now and both look to continue this trend against a Jets' team that is playing for increasingly less each week.

RB:

Andre Williams (@JAX, 38% owned)
Rashad Jennings is back and taking most of the carries in the Giants' running game, but two important things have happened: first, the Giants have started to realize that Jennings is better (and healthier) when spaced out and avoiding too much short yardage work and second, the Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. That's probably the more important thing.. whereas earlier in the season the Giants were having trouble moving the football downfield and thus Williams did not get the opportunity to capitalize on the limited touches he received, the revitalized Giants' passing game should create more redzone touches here. Around 10 touches a game plus some goalline work is just fine for a flex play at RB.

LeGarrette Blount (@GB, 33% owned)
Less than a week removed from being fired by the Steelers, Blount was resigned by his former team (NE) and marched downfield for an impressive 78 yards on 12 touches, including 2 TDs. Yes, Jonas Gray was even more impressive the previous week but that is the mystery of the Belichick. In my humble opinion, Blount will remain the short yardage and goalline back for the Patriots - he had the same role last season and played well there. This is a dicey pick, but could pay off dividends throughout the playoffs.

TE:

Jordan Cameron (@BUF, 47% owned)
Cameron was outstanding last year but has only had 1 impressive game so far this season. He is an excellent candidate to break out in the next few weeks, though, since the Browns have been playing really well and he gets a lot of space given back to him on the field now that Josh Gordon is back out there. A tough matchup against BUF this week may not get him on any leaderboards, but the Colts and the Bengals (which he plays in weeks 14 and 15, respectively), are giving a lot of points to TEs. Don't sleep on Cameron - he'll be instrumental in someone's playoff run.

Kyle Rudolph (vs. CAR, 47% owned)

If Cameron is not available, Rudolph is an excellent choice. Injured for most of the year and on a team with a rookie QB, he is flying under the radar in some leagues after being eased back into an every-down role in MIN. Playing on almost every snap last week and grabbing 3 receptions for 50 yards on 5 targets, it looks like he's back on his feet for real. The 6'6" Rudolph is also arguably the best redzone target that the Vikings currently have rostered.

Defense / Special Teams:

MIA (@NYJ), DET (vs. CHI), IND (vs. WAS), BUF (vs. CLE), AZ (@ATL)

When you correctly predict an 0-10 team to get their first win against a team that came into the game 7-3, you know it’s going to be a good week!

The Raiders made sure that the Lions remain alone in football misery’s history. No winless season in the bay…at least not this year. And if you read this post and used my picks, you impressed a lot of people last week!

Not only did you have the Raiders getting their first win but you correctly picked 13 of the 15 games! What a week it was!

Let keep the momentum going!

Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – INDIANAPOLIS over Washington – Colt McCoy is back under center as RGIII takes a seat. McCoy has been the most productive of the Redskins quarterback merry-go-round, but there is just no way he can pull out a win in Indy.

15 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – I feel like the Texans are an offensive volcano about to burst and the eruption will come Sunday.

14 – BALTIMORE over San Diego – The Ravens look like the top team in the toughest division in the league. The Chargers have been struggling and this cross-country trip comes at a very inopportune time.

13 – DETROIT over Chicago – Thanksgiving day starts in Ford Field with a classic NFC North battle. The Lions need to get back on track and should be able to do so easily against a team that just can’t seem to find their identity.

12 – PITTSBURGH over New Orleans – I said before that the Saints have been hard to figure out this year. Well it seems like figuring this year’s team is getting easier to do…and it’s not good.

11 – Miami over NEW YORK JETS – The Dolphins nearly pulled out a win in Denver. There is no reason they shouldn’t be able to win in New York against a team that is playing a quarterback that the coach doesn’t want to play.

10 – DALLAS over Philadelphia – My initial BOLD PREDICTION was that the Cowboys would win the East. This is the game where they prove that one to be true.

9 – MINNESOTA over Carolina – While the Vikings showed signs of life against a red-hot Green Bay team last week, this pick is more of a lack of faith in Carolina than confidence in Minnesota.

8 – GREEN BAY over New England – Possible game of the year here. The fact that this game is in Lambeau is a HUGE advantage for the Pack. This week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that this game will be this year’s Super Bowl matchup.

7 – Cincinnati over TAMPA BAY – The Bengals seem to be back on track now. With a healthy AJ Green and a healthy running game whether its Bernard or Hill, they should be able to continue Tampa’s woeful season.

6 – Arizona over ATLANTA – The Falcons round out a clean sweep of NFC South losses this week. If you thought a 7-9 Seahawks team in the playoffs a few years ago was bad, could we see a 6-10 team this year?

5 – Seattle over SAN FRANCISCO – Thanksgiving ends with what has been one of the best rivalries in the last few years. It does seem to have lost a bit of its luster as both team’s haven’t lived up to expectations this year, but the Seahawks have definitely been the lesser of two evils here.

4 – ST. LOUIS over Oakland – Coming off of their first win of the year, the Raiders have to make a bit of a trip this week. The only real interesting question with this game is which of these team’s will end up in LA first?

3 – BUFFALO over Cleveland – It looks like the snow will let up enough for the Bills to have their home field advantage back this week. This game could go a long way in deciding playoff spots down the road and the Bills won’t let that chance pass them by.

2 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – Any time you think the Broncos are going to lose, make sure to have it down pretty low on your list.

1 – JACKSONVILLE over New York Giants – Conversely, any time you think the Jaguars are going to WIN a game, make sure it is on the one point line.

Week 13 looms ahead of us in the fantasy football season and that means that the end is near! What it doesn't mean, is that your options on the waiver wire are running dry. Because of injuries to key players like Rob Gronkowski, Chris Johnson and others, we'll see a few players that have been waiting in the wings all year step up to the plate. Don't lose hope in your team until you're statistically out of the running for a playoff spot, and even then - play spoiler! Check out our week 13 waiver wire picks below:

Quarterback Pickups

Alex Smith (KC @ OAK, 29% Owned): Smith has mostly been the game manager of a run-first offense, as expected, but last week's performance (255 passing yards, 2 TDs, 35 rushing yards) was fairly impressive against the Bills' stout passing defense. Week 13 brings the Chiefs to Oakland, where they'll face a defense giving up 18+ points to quarterbacks. Smith is a high-floor QB that can sometimes find good chemistry with Jeremy Maclin and this is shaping up to be one of those weeks.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ  @ NYG, 23% Owned): Fitzpatrick put up 4 TDs and almost 300 yards against the Dolphins in Week 12, and the Jets' passing attack does not look like it will be slowing down any as they travel to New York to face the Giants. Like the Raiders, the Giants have a porous secondary that has given up some big games this year and a smart guy like Fitzpatrick will surely take advantage of that.

Wide Receiver Pickups

DeVante Parker (MIA vs. BAL, 4% Owned): Dolphins' WR Rishard Matthews went down last week with a chest injury which turned out to be 'multiple fractured ribs' and will sideline him indefinitely. Too bad for Matthews, but it does shine a light on rookie DeVante Parker, who had 4 receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. Parker is extremely talented, but still rough around the edges - still, with Matthews out the Dolphins will need him to play a more prominent role in the offense which should lead to relevant fantasy production. Playing Parker against the Ravens' terrible passing defense should allow for plenty of big play opportunities.

Cecil Shorts (HOU @ BUF, 11% Owned): We love Cecil Shorts here at drinkfive! He was a great PPR play on the Jaguars in garbage time, and the same applies in Houston except that he is also being used in 'gadget' plays like the wildcat touchdown that he threw in Week 11 or the shovel pass that he took in for a touchdown last week. The Texans are showing trust in Shorts by running these sorts of plays more often and I expect to see a few more tricks from Shorts down the stretch.

Running Back Pickups

David Johnson (ARI @ STL, 27% Owned): Arizona RB Chris Johnson has a fractured tibia and Andre Ellington has been diagnosed with turf toe. It's likely, then, that David Johnson will get the chance this week to see if he can shoulder a larger load of carries (his previous high carry total this season was 8, just last week). Looking at his stats so far this year, it's not too much of a stretch to think that the lightning in a bottle (7 TDs on only 54 touches) may escape against the Rams.

Shaun Draughn (SF @ CHI, 28% Owned): When it was first announced that Draughn would be the 49ers lead running back after Carlos Hyde was sidelined, there was a distinct lack of fanfare. After all, Draughn had not really impressed in the previous seasons when he was given opportunities to do so. True, he's on the 49ers anemic offense, but he is the undeniable lead back and is playing nearly every snap. Regardless of how well the team performs, Draughn will continue to trudge ahead and pick up fantasy points each week.

Tight End Pickups

Scott Chandler (NE vs. PHI, 9% Owned): Gronkowski is down with an injury and the latest news from Adam Schefter is that he will miss multiple weeks. After all, the Patriots will not have any issues making it to the playoffs this season and if resting one of their best players will allow for his availability in the post-season then so be it. In the meantime, Chandler will be used as the TE1 on the Patriots offense, which means 4+ targets each week. Chandler was already known as a good red zone target even with Gronkowski on the field, so with this injury he immediately becomes a top 10 TE.

Defense/Special Teams Pickups

Chicago Bears (CHI vs. SF, 4% Owned): The Bears, you say? Well, we've seen some sparks and glimmers of a defense emerging this year and the 49ers are regularly giving up 9+ points per game to opposing defenses. This is not a slam dunk play, but in leagues where people own the better defensive plays the Bears DST should be available and I expect them to rack up the 9+ points without much trouble.