Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

3 Safeties

 

Safeties are coming in bunches this season. Yesterday, there were three scored by three different teams - the Indianapolis Colts, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Seattle Seahawks. The first two were via sacks and the last one was a blocked punt that was nearly recovered for a TD instead of a safety. But, as I said, these things come in bunches. Of the 15 safeties that have been scored this season, two came in Week 2, three came in Week 3, and three more came in week 11. Minnesota has been involved in 3 of them - giving up 2 of them early in the season and finally returning the favor this week against the Jaguars - a must-have score that came in a game that wound up going to overtime. Indianapolis has been involved in 4 safeties this season - 3 in their favor and one against them, on a flag for intentional grounding in the end zone. The Seahawks have also been involved in 3 safeties this season - all 3 of them in their favor and all 3 of them occurring in weeks where 2 other teams have managed to score a safety.

 

1,039 Receiving Yards

 

Vikings rookie WR Justin Jefferson is now third among all wide receivers in the league (through Sunday's games) with 1,039 receiving yards. As expected, as a rookie, he started the season slow with only 70 yards in his first two games. Since then, he's averaging 97 yards per game, has put up 5 games over 100 yards, and scored 7 touchdowns.  He's now the #4 fantasy wide receiver with 178.6 points on the season, averaging about 15 points per game. With drop-offs of all the rookie QBs who were once playing well this season, Jefferson's name is now coming up in offensive rookie of the year conversations, and he could definitely be a strong contender if he keeps up this pace to close out the season. Jefferson's pace is rather historical, he has the second-most receiving yards by a rookie WR through his first 12 games. He's quite behind Odell Beckham's pace of 1,305 in 2014, but he's slightly ahead of Randy Moss in 1998 and Anquan Boldin in 2003. All three of those guys won the offensive rookie of the year award.

 

1,114 Receiving Yards

 

Travis Kelce turned in another huge game on Sunday night and is now just 5 yards behind the league leader in receiving yards - DK Metcalf with 1,119 yards.  Kelce is 4th in the league with 82 receptions and naturally leads all tight ends with 8 touchdowns. Kelce is leading all TEs is all statistical categories and is just shy of 200 points on the season. His average of 16.5 points per game is almost 4 points ahead of the second-best TE, Darren Waller. Waller had a historically great game on Sunday against the Jets, scoring 38.5 fantasy points, the best mark on the season for a TE by almost 6 points (and the high-water mark for Week 13 so far). In the Raiders' last-second victory over the Jets, Waller had 13 receptions for 200 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. This is the 4th time in NFL history that a tight end has had a game with 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. He'll need a lot more games like this if he wants to catch Travis Kelce for the points total this season - Kelce still has roughly a 45-point lead with just 4 games to go in the NFL regular season.

 

31 Fantasy Points on a D/ST

 

The New England Patriots turned in the D/ST performance of the season on Sunday while visiting the Chargers in Los Angeles. Their 31 points tops the Falcons' 28 points they got just last week. The Patriots tore apart rookie QB Justin Herbert and held him to a 49.1% completion rate for 209 yards and 2 interceptions. Along the way, the Patriots returned a punt for a touchdown and also blocked a field goal attempt at the end of the 2nd quarter, and returned that for a touchdown as well. Add 3 sacks and zero points allowed to all of that and you arrive a 31 fantasy points for a D/ST that had a decent chance at being on the waiver wire, as they're only 66% owned in Fleaflicker leagues. This performance sort of came out of nowhere considering the Patriots D/ST has scored 32 total points since Week 4. Next up for the Patriots, the other Los Angeles team, again in Los Angeles, coming up on Thursday night.  A quick turnaround might mean that the defense is still pumped up for this rematch of Super Bowl LIII.

 

4 of the Top 10 QBs

 

I like to use our drinkfive.com fantasy league as a way to find interesting or noteworthy stats, but often I find us a bit lacking in some areas. Often this comes in the form of nobody owning a kicker worth a damn on any given week (The top 3 this week are owned! But only 4 of the top 10). D/ST is another position where this crops up, this week nobody had the Patriots and only 5 of the top 10 teams were rostered. This also occasionally happens at the tight end position, but what I never find is a staggering lack of ownership at the quarterback position. This week, only 4 of the top 10 QBs (so far, there are 6 guys left to play) are on rosters. This is mostly due to the fact that there were lots of big performances from the middle and lower tiers of QBs. Derek Carr led the way with 4 total touchdowns, one of them a last-second bomb to keep the Jets winless. Baker Mayfield’s 4 first-half touchdown passes vaulted him into the QB2 spot of the week, scoring a Browns record 38 first-half points.

 

Just two weeks left of the regular fantasy football season for most leagues, and the decisions that you make over this period of time will make or break your team's chances to win a championship! Use any rankings as a guide, but I also encourage team managers to use their gut when determining a start between two similarly ranked players. No regrets! Good luck.

 

Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with any specific questions or comments that you might have. We are now broadcasting our weekly podcast, The Fantasy Finish Line, LIVE on YouTube every Wednesday at 9pm CT during the regular season. Tune in!

 

It’s time for the playoff push in fantasy football - the last two weeks of the regular season are upon us. We’ll take a look at Dave’s rankings and compare them to the ECR (expert consensus rankings) on Fantasypros.com. Some players we like more than the crowd, some of them are ranked lower, but I’ll do my best to justify why I like them.

Boston Scott (RB-PHI), Rank 20, ECR 27 (+7) - Scott is in a committee in the Eagles backfield, but he’s been getting a decent share of work. Since being added to the rotation back in Week 6, he’s averaging 10 carries per week and has scored 4 touchdowns. Jordan Howard was also inactive last week due to an injury, and Miles Sanders tweaked his ankle during the week 12 game, so his status needs to be monitored. If Sanders does not go, then Scott’s stock goes up even more. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the second place team isn’t even close. The Jets have given up double digit points 18 times in 11 games this season. For a single week spot start, you could do a lot worse than Boston Scott.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-NE), Rank 25, ECR 28 (+3) - This week, the Patriots will play the Bills on Monday night football. The Bills just got torched by Jonathan Taylor for over 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago. While I’m not saying that there will be anything like a repeat of that, what I am saying is that the tape on how to run on the Bills is out there, and Bill Belichick is the coach who is most likely to be able to repeat that. Stevenson has led the Patriots backfield in carries in 2 of the last 3 weeks, and he’s a good flex play. The Bills are better at defending the pass than the run, so the Patriots will definitely lean on the run game instead of leaning on their rookie QB to defeat this stout defense.

Rex Burkhead (RB-HOU), Rank 30, ECR 33 (+3) - Burkhead is leading the way in the Houston backfield the last two weeks. While that hasn’t translated to a lot of fantasy points, he does have 33 touches over that time, and one thing we like to see from RBs is the opportunity to score points. If you’re getting the ball, you’re more likely to score. Simple as that. Burkhead is a touchdown dependent dart throw this week against the Colts.

Jamaal Williams (RB-DET), Rank 27, ECR 23 (-4) - Williams has moved up the charts due to the likely absence of D’Andre Swift coming up in week 13. This is an area where I disagree with Dave and I would go ahead and start Williams if you’re short at RB or need a flex play. Williams should see plenty of usage - last week he saw 20 touches, and Week 1 with Swift limited, he had 17 touches (8 receptions!). This will be the first full game where Williams has the backfield all to himself, and the Vikings are giving up the 9th most points to opposing RBs, after having just been dominated on the ground last week by the 49ers. 

Matt Breida (RB-BUF), Rank 33, ECR 30 (-3) - Breida has only been used in the last 3 games, but he’s scored in two of them and is averaging 12.07 points per game during that span. He has 1.57 points per touch in these three games, so he’s being very efficient during this time and has earned the right to get more work. I could definitely see his touches per game get into the 12-15 range very soon. This week they play the Patriots, who traditionally focus on shutting down the best weapons on the opposing team. Breida is probably the 4th best weapon the Bills are presenting at the moment, so this could be a sneaky good matchup for him if the primary offensive weapons are not effective. 

CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL), Rank 7, ECR 10 (+3) - Lamb is back in the lineup for this week, now practicing in full after being in the concussion protocol and missing the Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys play on Thursday night (with normal rest!) and will likely be missing Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson. Lamb should be in line for a ton of volume against the Saints, who give up the 5th most points to opposing WRs. Fire up Lamb in all formats as a very solid WR1.

Hunter Renfrow (WR-OAK), Rank 31, ECR 25 (-6) - Here’s a spot where I disagree with Dave. Since the Raiders bye in week 8, Renfrow has led the team in receptions and/or yardage in 3 of 4 games. He’s averaging 6.5 receptions over that span, and has 12.9 points per game during that time. Renfrow’s matchup this week is against the Washington Football Team, who give up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr throws for 300+ yards, so I expect them to air the ball out as much as is reasonable for the rest of the season. That, or we’ll just have to trust in the coin to deliver their victory this week. I like Renfrow as an easy WR3, even better than just a flex option.

Kendrick Bourne (WR-NE), Rank 38, ECR 34 (-4) - Here’s a spot where I suspect I see more value than Dave does. Bourne is certainly boom or bust, but he’s boomed in two of the last three weeks, scoring over 20 points in weeks 10 and 12. Bourne gets a consistent amount of targets, 4-6 each game, and does get a few handoffs occasionally, which helps, but doesn’t exactly provide him with a higher floor. There are no dominant receiving options on the Patriots, so it’s not like Bourne will get crowded out. He has a chance go really go off each game, so treat him as a high risk, high reward flex play, especially in a standard or half PPR format.

Van Jefferson (WR-LAR), Rank 33, ECR 31 (-2) - Van Jefferson has emerged as the #2 option on the Rams, albeit a distant second behind Cooper Kupp. Jefferson seems to only excel when scoring a touchdown, but the opportunities are definitely there. The Rams throw the ball about 37 times per game, and Jefferson is averaging 7.7 targets per game in the last 3 games. Jefferson has developed into a proper downfield threat, even with the addition of Odell Beckham. The Jaguars are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, so it’s a plus matchup for Van as the Rams look to beat up on the Jags after losing to the Packers.