Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you we’ve made it to the final week of the fantasy regular season. You know where you stand in the playoff picture and know what you need to do to extend your season. It also means the end of the NFL bye weeks, which may make it harder to find use for some of the rookies that were invaluable fill-ins over the last few weeks. Week 13 does boast some favorable matchups for the rookie crop. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs all face off with defenses in the bottom-5 in the NFL at limiting RB points, and every notable rookie tight end other than Noah Fant gets to face off with a bottom-8 tight end defense. Plenty of rookies may dazzle this week.

Regardless of upcoming opponent, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop this week on Thanksgiving. I’ll dive into the rest of the rookies that play Sunday and Monday later, so stay tuned for that… All of the players for Week 13 are now listed.

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Singletary is getting close to being an every-week fantasy starter. He’s put up 75+ rushing yards in 3 of his past 4 games, and this week faces a Dallas defense that ranks 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. His usage is secure every week, and he has the ability to be a game-changer on the Thanksgiving DFS slate at a reasonable $5,800 price tag. The only rookie running back I’d consider ahead of him this week is Josh Jacobs.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 13: @Det.): I know playing Monty would feel like playing with fire on Turkey Day, but on paper it’s probably the right move. The Bears are almost certainly going to handle the Lions in the early game Thursday as Detroit starts David Blough at QB. Montgomery’s efficiency has been BRUTAL lately, but he’s got 15+ touches in 5 straight games and the Lions are allowing the 2^nd-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. If you have Montgomery, it probably makes sense to hold your nose and put him in the lineup.

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): Jacobs is coming off his worst fantasy game of the year in a surprising blowout loss to the Jets, but you have to go back to the well again this week. His ceiling won’t be as high as it typically is with the Raiders a 10.5-point underdog, but he’ll have plenty of room to run while the game is competitive. The Chiefs allow the most RB PPR points per game and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Jacobs went for 9.9 PPR points the first time he faced KC (99 rushing yards). I expect he’ll reach double-digits in this one.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Jordan Howard has been ruled out for another week, and Sanders has played more than 80% of the offensive snaps with Howard sidelined the last two games.  Against Miami that should result in a strong fantasy day for him. The Dolphins have given up the 5^th-most RB PPR points per game and rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles have been hesitant to give Sanders a huge workload. He hasn’t topped 15 touches in any game this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jay Ajayi getting a bit more work this week if the Eagles are playing from ahead (they’re a 10-point favorite), but if Sanders gets about 15 touches in this matchup, he should be at least a low-end RB2 this week.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): It looks like the Giants will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison this week. That leaves Sterling Shepard and Slayton as the top two options in the passing game (outside of Saquon of course) against a defense that ranks 19^th in pass defense DVOA. Slayton has been consistently targeted down the field, and no team in the NFL has allowed more 40+ yard pass plays than the Green Bay Packers. There are likely safer options than Slayton this week, but this a great spot for another big game for the Auburn product. He may tangle with Jaire Alexander more than I’d like him to, but I still think Slayton comes up with a nice game.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Murray has been playing his best football of the season the last few weeks, and this week gets a reasonable matchup with the Rams. LA ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA, and the strongest part of their pass defense, Jalen Ramsey, isn’t likely to venture into the slot to cover Larry Fitzgerald and/or Christian Kirk. Murray has really started to use his legs over the past several weeks, topping 30 rushing yards in 5 of his last 7 games, and the Rams are a week removed from letting Lamar Jackson run for 95. With all 32 teams playing, Murray is going to be more of a low-end QB1 this week rather than locked-in starter, but the upside is there for a strong week.

 

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch to Devlin Hodges at QB this week, and the last time Hodges started they leaned heavily on the run game with 16 rushing attempts in 25 first half offensive plays against the Chargers. James Conner is expected to miss another week, and Snell worked as the starter last week, handling 21 of the team’s 38 rushing attempts. Kerrith Whyte had a nice performance last week as well, but he carried just 6 times and played just 7 offensive snaps. Snell is the Steeler back you want. The Browns have limited opposing backs to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but they rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Snell seems like a sure bet for 15+ carries against that defense. I like him as a flex option this week. He is a better option in non-PPR formats though.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): I believe Metcalf is going to fall on the right side of the borderline this week. The Vikings have struggled to contain all kinds of different receivers this year, allowing the 4^th-most PPR points per game to the position. They’ve given up a decent number of splash plays, allowing the 11^th-most 20+ yard pass plays on the year. Tyler Lockett is still a little banged up, and Metcalf has averaged 7.8 targets per game over the last 5 contests. There is still some degree of boom-or-bust to Metcalf’s game, but I like him to finish as a WR3 or better this week.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): McLaurin is more of a floor play than ceiling as long as Haskins is the QB, but the matchup this week puts him in play. The Panthers overall pass defense has been decent, ranking 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 5^th-most WR points per game. McLaurin has been the target on 21.3% of Haskins’ pass attempts this season and has averaged 7.8 yards per target. He’s averaged about a 4-70 line the past two weeks, and I think he’ll be in that ballpark again in this plus matchup. He’s a reasonably safe WR3/4 floor play with an outside chance at a ceiling week.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 13: @Ind.): Brown has been the epitome of boom-or-bust this season. He’s topped 80 receiving yards in 4 contests and been held under 30 yards in 6 of them. The Titans’ offense as a whole has been more productive in the passing game since changing QBs. They’re averaging 32 more passing yards and 0.6 more passing TDs per game in Tannehill’s starts compared to Mariota’s (excluding the game Mariota was benched during). Brown leads the team in targets from Tannehill, and in yards per target from him (min. 6 targets). The Colts are an average pass defense. Brown is worth a roll of the dice if you’re an underdog in a must-win matchup.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Fant put up a pretty miserable fantasy day in week 12 with the whole Broncos’ offense doing next to nothing. He was targeted 5 times but totaled just 3 catches for 14 yards. It’s worth noting that the return of Jeff Heuerman from injury did ding his snap share a little bit. Heuerman had been out all 3 games since the Manny Sanders trade prior to week 12, and Fant played 82, 86, and 86 percent of the offensive snaps in those games. That number was down to 74% in week 12 with Heuerman back on the field. Fant is still the tight end featured in the passing game, but the Chargers allow the 10^th-fewest PPR points to the position. His usage keeps him in the conversation of being a top-12 tight end option this week but he’ll be a volatile option like most borderline tight ends. The likelihood that Drew Lock starts this week gives Fant even more uncertainty.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Knox played above 70% of the offensive snaps in consecutive weeks for the first time all year in weeks 11 & 12. If that continues the targets are going to follow. The Cowboys allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, and the Bills are a touchdown underdog and will likely have to throw it more than they like to. If there was ever a week to take a leap of faith on Knox, this is probably it.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Jones has been productive of late, putting up 11 TDs and 1 pick over the last 4 games while adding 28.5 rushing yards per game in that span, but turnovers and sacks have continued to be problems for him. He’s taken 23 sacks and lost 7 fumbles in his past 5 games. The Packers have just a middling pass rush, but so do the Jets and Cardinals who got to Jones a combined 14 times. Green Bay allows just the 10^th-fewest QB points per game and Jones will be without Golden Tate and Evan Engram. Engram has been out several weeks, but Tate has averaged 8 targets per game since returning from suspension. Jones is only a low-end QB2 option this week.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Haskins failed to make good on his opportunity last week against one of the worst QB defenses in the league, so there’s no reason to trust him against a much tougher opponent this week. The Panthers allow the 11^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. In 3 starts this year, Haskins has averaged 171 passing yards per game and totaled 2 touchdowns and 3 turnovers. There just isn’t a ceiling to chase here right now.

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch from Mason Rudolph to Devlin “Duck” Hodges, but he’s not likely to be a valuable fantasy starter this week. Pittsburgh leaned heavily on the run game in Hodges’ first start, and I’d expect them to do the same here. Pittsburgh ran the ball on 16 of their first 25 offensive plays in Hodges’ first start. Cleveland ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges’ best bet for fantasy production would be on the ground. He ran for nearly 30 yards in his first start, and Cleveland has allowed the 4^th-most QB rushing yards per game and coughed up 4 rushing scores to the position. I’d still look elsewhere this week, even in 2QB formats.

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Signs are pointing to Drew Lock making his first start of the year Sunday. He’s been taking the majority of the 1^st string reps in practice, but I’d rather see what he can do before pulling the trigger on him in any lineups. The Broncos want to run first and foremost, and the Chargers rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Broncos likely want to limit Lock to fewer than 30 attempts if possible. I’d steer clear until we see how Lock looks in real game action.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): The Vikings have played 3 consecutive close games that were decided by 4 points or less, and Mattison has averaged just 8 offensive snaps per game in those contests. The Vikings are a field goal underdog this week and Seattle allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Mattison probably gets a handful of carries, but not enough to trust in lineups.

 

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Laird did see a jump in playing time last week as expected, but he was still limited to just 37% of the offensive snaps. He played one snap less than Kalen Ballage, and Gaskin played just enough to keep Laird’s usage from being exciting. With all 32 teams playing this week, you shouldn’t be scrounging the wire for a guy who may get a handful of targets on one of the worst offenses in the league. The Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest PPR points per game to running backs.

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 13: @SF): I only mention Hill at all because he got 8 carries on Monday night. There’s nothing to read into his usage. Baltimore won by 39 points, so he got some late run. It’s HIGHLY unlikely that scenario repeats itself in San Francisco.

 

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. TB): In two games since posting a 5-65 receiving line against Houston in week 9 Armstead has just 3 touches for 19 yards. The Bucs rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest RB PPR points per game. Even if Ryquell does get a handful of touches this week he’s unlikely to do much with them.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Brown found the end zone twice last week, and probably is still in consideration for your lineup this week if you have him, but on paper this looks like a down week for Hollywood. The 49ers rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. This week’s matchup is going to be a rainy one in Baltimore, and if you play Brown it’s with the hope he hits a couple big plays. San Francisco has allowed just 18 pass plays of 20+ yards in 11 games. No other team in the league has allowed fewer than 23. I get it that Brown may be your best option this week, but I want to make it clear how dicey he is against the 49ers.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Samuel has been breaking out over the past few weeks, but the return of George Kittle last Sunday resulted in Samuel being targeted just twice. He did turn those targets into 50 yards and a TD, but similar usage this week is unlikely to have a similar return. The Ravens secondary has been fantastic since trading for Marcus Peters. They’ve given up just 2 WR scores in their past 6 games, and there is a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore during the game. I know there will be temptation to play Samuel after he put up 19.2, 21.4, and 13 PPR points in his last 3 games, but I think you’ll be better served to look elsewhere this week.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Johnson may very well lead the Steelers in targets this week, but I’d rather not rely on him if you need a win this week. The Steelers are likely to lean on the run game, and the Browns allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. Johnson has just 5 catches for 46 yards in the past 2 games. Meanwhile James Washington has put up 6-147-1 including a 79-yard TD catch from Devlin Hodges. Washington seems like the higher upside play this week. Johnson has some upside this week, but it’s very possible the Steelers total less than 200 passing yards which caps his ceiling.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Oak.): Tyreek Hill is fully expected to play this week after exiting KC’s last game with a hamstring issue just 7 snaps in. Mecole played 52 snaps in that game but had played just 38 snaps total in the 3 games prior, totaling 3-118-2 on 3 targets and adding a rush for 7 yards in those games. That’s an incredible level of production given the limited playing time, but Hardman remains just a big play dart throw as long as Hill is in the lineup. The Raiders have been burnable, giving up more 20+ yard pass plays than any other team in the league, but I’d still try for a safer option this week.

 

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Harry made a spectacular TD catch last week and played more than 80% of the offensive snaps, but the return of Phillip Dorsett this week should push him back to the bench. He’ll play some, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration even in this decent matchup. I’d look to Jakobi Meyers if you’re looking for a rookie Patriot pass catcher this week.

 

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Harmon has finally started to make an impact on the field the last couple weeks with Paul Richardson battling an injury. Richardson returned last week but played just 15 snaps to Harmon’s 38. Harmon has been targeted 6 times in each of the last 2 contests, but he’s been mostly utilized in the short & intermediate part of the field. His sneaky PPR upside the last two weeks was mostly due to so many receivers being on byes. With all 32 teams playing and Richardson another week removed from injury there just isn’t enough upside to try Harmon this week.

 

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR):  Johnson is an obvious sit with just 4 catches for 36 yards on 9 targets in the past 3 weeks, but I’d be opposed to starting Isabella too. He’s getting some deep targets on his limited snaps, but he may have to match up with Jalen Ramsey a bit in this one. He’s still in play as a cheap DFS tournament dart throw, but I’d probably look elsewhere this week. The Rams have allowed the 2^nd-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards in the league and have given up just 4 passes of 40+ on the season.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Johnson was already producing in a limited capacity before the Lions brought in Bo Scarbrough, but Ty’s opportunity should be limited even further going forward. Bo has become the clear leader of the Lions RB committee, getting almost all of the early down work. Johnson is left fighting with JD McKissic for leftovers. Johnson would be lucky to top 35% of the offensive snaps this week against a Bears’ defense allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, and even if he does reach that number, it’s highly unlikely he reaches a usable point total.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Hockenson hasn’t produced much fantasy goodness in quite some time. He hasn’t topped 10 PPR points since week 4, and he’s finished under 3.5 PPR points in 3 of his last 5 games. He gets a favorable matchup this week against a Bears’ team that has allowed the 7^th-most points to the position per game, but in week 12 he combined his lack of production with a drop in playing time. It was the first time all year he played fewer than 50% of the Lions’ offensive snaps, giving way to Logan Thomas at times. He was playing through an injury, which may explain the dip in snaps, but he will still be banged up on the short week this week. His limited playing time and limited production makes him almost impossible to trust this week.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Phillip Dorsett is set to return this week, but it sounds like Mohamed Sanu could be out again. Sanu has been playing primarily in the slot, so it’s Meyers who is likely to play in his stead. Houston has struggled to defend the slot, allowing massive games to Michael Thomas (10-123) and Keenan Allen (13-183-2) who spend a decent amount of time in the slot, and gave up respectable games to less heralded slot receivers Jarius Wright (5-59), Mohamed Sanu (5-42-1) and Hunter Renfrow (4-88-1). At just $3,300 on DraftKings, Meyers has a chance to easily outproduce his price tag. The Texans rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA.

 

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): It seems that Adam Thielen may return Monday night, and if he does, I don’t expect Johnson to do much. He hasn’t topped 4 targets in any game that Thielen played from start to finish. Unfortunately, we may not know if Thielen is playing until Monday night. If you’re considering Thielen this week, it makes some sense to scoop Johnson off the waiver wire to be safe. The Vikes are a 3-point underdog on Monday night, so they’ll likely be throwing more than 30 times and you could make a case for Bisi as a TD dart throw even if Thielen returns. If Thielen does sit, Johnson becomes more of a WR4 type, but one with enough upside to not kill you this week and be a potential steal in DFS tournaments at just $3,800 in DraftKings. The Seahawks aren’t a WR defense to target, but they aren’t one to avoid either allowing the 14^th-most PPR points per game to the position.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Campbell’s status is still up in the air for Sunday, but if he plays, he has a chance at a surprising day. TY Hilton has already been ruled out, and the last time Campbell played with Hilton sidelined he was targeted 8 times. Eric Ebron also played in that game, and he’s since gone to injured reserve. The Titans rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA and Campbell is basically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings).

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): It looks like there is a real chance that Alshon Jeffery returns this week, but if he doesn’t there is some solid upside for Arcega-Whiteside. The Dolphins are the worst team in the league in pass defense DVOA and they allow the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position. JJ was targeted 5 times and played 71% of the snaps in week 12 as the number 2 receiver to Jordan Matthews, and Matthews was cut this week. Nelson Agholor is also on the mend and could be back. If both he and Jeffery return, you shouldn’t consider JJ, but if Alshon or both sit, JJ becomes an upside option for DFS tournaments and deep leagues.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Smith filled in as the Giants’ full-time tight end in week 12 with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison both sidelined. If both are out again, Smith would make a really interesting spot play this week. The Packers have given up a 60-yard receiving day to a tight end in 5 straight games and coughed up 5 scores to the position in those games. I wouldn’t expect a monster game out of Smith after he averaged just 3.4 yards per catch last week, but he should have a great chance at 5+ catches if both Ellison and Engram sit again. He could be a steal in DFS tournaments at just $2,900 on DraftKings.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): There is a chance the Vikings play without Adam Thielen again on Monday, and the Seahawks allow the 4^th-most TE points per game. Seattle has surrendered big fantasy days to 2^nd tier and lower tight ends CJ Uzomah (4-66), Gerald Everett (7-136), and Ricky Seals-Jones (3-47-1). It may be tough to pull the trigger on Smith given that we won’t know Thielen’s status until Monday, but he could be a great option for Monday showdown DFS slates ($3,200 on DraftKings), and could be a decent fallback option if you have Thielen set to play in a flex spot.

 

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): With the injury to Hunter Renfrow, look for the Raiders’ plans moving forward to include more 2-tight end sets. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most TE points per game and Moreau costs the minimum on DraftKings. While Darren Waller is the most likely Raider to take advantage of the matchup, Moreau has had a knack for getting in the end zone. He’s scored every other game for the past 8 weeks, and while that’s hardly predictive this would be the week he’d be due for a score if the pattern holds.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): The Cowboys have started to get Pollard at least slightly more involved of late, but he still has averaged just 3 touches per game in the Cowboys’ 5 losses. Luckily for him the ‘Boys are favored by a touchdown on Thursday. I wouldn’t roll Pollard out there in season long leagues. There is a very real chance that the Cowboys streak of losing to every winning team they play continues, but if you think the Vegas line is about right Pollard has a chance to be a dangerous cheap option for Thanksgiving day DFS tournaments. The Bills rank 26^th in run defense DVOA.

 

That’s all I’ve got for the Thanksgiving slate. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. Keep in mind there are 3 games on Thursday with the first starting at 11:30 AM CT, so make sure your lineups are set in time. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Have a safe and happy holiday, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

4 Games with 100+ Rushing Yards

 

Last week Lamar Jackson played on Monday night, so I didn’t have my usual opportunity to gush about his absurd statistical season he’s having this year. Allow me to quickly remedy that by pointing out that Jackson now has 4 games with at least 100 rushing yards, a feat that has not been done by any QBs in the history of the league. Jackson’s season total is now up to 977 rushing yards and he could pass Mike Vick’s single season record of 1,039 yards next week. Jackson’s opponent next week, the Buffalo Bills, have given up 109 rushing yards to opposing QBs all season, though Jackson has the ability to go ahead and double up their total on the season by the end of the game. Now 50 fantasy points ahead of the field, Jackson has wrapped up the unofficial Fantasy MVP award for this year, and is the front runner for the actual MVP award, and it’s not even really close.

 

2 TDs and a Blocked Kick

 

Taysom Hill had a hell of a game on Thursday night. This may be the first instance I’ve seen of a third string QB outscoring a starting QB (who played the entire game) in fantasy scoring. Hill had 16.50 points thanks to a rushing and a receiving TD, while Drew Brees put up only 11.26 points, his lowest effort of the season. Hill even blocked a punt early in the game, which probably gave him even more points in leagues that feature IDPs. Maybe we could make a special flex position for guys like Hill who are only QB eligible, but never actually play QB. Meanwhile, Hill’s teammate Michael Thomas finally dropped a pass. He had a streak of 198 receptions over 22 games without dropping a pass, just an incredible stretch for him. Thomas had only 6 receptions on Thursday, but he’s still on pace to break the single season receptions record – as long as he doesn’t drop any more passes.

 

27.90 Fantasy Points

 

If you had DeVante Parker as the WR1 for the week, then congratulations, you ought to go play the lottery. The 2015 pick has been a bust for years before actually emerging as a solid WR this season. He has at least 91 yards and 6 receptions in each of the last 3 games and is on pace for a really respectable season of 70 receptions and 1100+ yards. Parker finished with the 3^rd most points overall for Week 13 and has the 3^rd most points at WR over the last 4 weeks. Props also go to his teammates Jason Sanders and Matt Haack for executing a very strange play on 4^th down for a touchdown. It was apparently a fake FG, though it did not look like any fakes I’ve ever seen. It did, however, remind me of that awful 4^th down trick play that the Colts tried back in 2015.

 

25 Fantasy Points in the Last 4 Weeks

 

The New England Patriots D/ST have not put up points lately, only 25 points in the last 4 weeks, but are still 45 points ahead of 2^nd place. The pace at which they were scoring early in the season obviously could not be sustained, though they are still doubling up the 10^th highest scoring D/ST. That’s a hell of a head start. The Patriots have yet another tough matchup next week when they host the Kansas City Chiefs, but their prospects of being the top D/ST returns in Week 15 and 16 against the Bills and Dolphins. Hopefully the team is healthier, not in an IR sense, but mostly healthy enough so they can all travel in the same enclosed space without worrying about disease spreading rampantly. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a team taking two planes because so many of its players are ill.

 

25.28 Fantasy Points per Game in the Last 4 Weeks

 

Derrick Henry is crushing it at RB lately, averaging 25.28 points per game over his last 4 games. This makes him the top RB during that time period and second to only Lamar Jackson. It would be easier to count the games this year that Henry does NOT have a touchdown; that would be 3. He’s scored 11 TDs total, just one off his career high he set last year. He’s already set new career highs for rushing and receiving yards. Over the last 3 weeks, Henry has 496 yards rushing and 5 TDs. He’s great at putting up tons of points in bunches, and he’s currently in the midst of one of his best streaks of his career. Meanwhile, the Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and are in the wild card hunt, thanks to Ryan Tannehill. He’s a top 10 QB over the last 4 weeks and leads the league in yards per pass attempt at 9.2y/a since Week 5. The Titans still have 2 games against the Texans which will go a long way to deciding the division winner.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. It’s been a long, strange trip this season, but hopefully you’ve made it to this point with a postseason berth secured, or at least a chance to earn one this week. We had our first Wednesday Afternoon Football in recent memory a couple days ago, and week 13 brings us two Monday games, a Tuesday night game, and two of the latest byes we’ve seen in years (Tampa & Carolina). If the Vegas betting lines are on point, it’s also going to have a LOT of uneven scores. 7 of the week’s 15 games have point spreads of more than 6 points. A week with a lot of lopsided games can be tricky to navigate when setting fantasy lineups, but there should be some exploitable matchups as a result. Which rookies does that apply to? Let’s take a look and find out…

 

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

 

Rookies to Start:

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): You already know what to do with Robinson. You can’t sit him. He’s given rock solid production week in and week out, and there is nothing about the matchup this week to scare you off of that. In Mike Glennon’s first start Robinson played all but one snap, and he was a popular passing game option as well with 6 targets and 5 catches. Minnesota ranks a middling 16^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and they’ve given up over 100 rushing yards in 4 of their past 5 games. For the season, Robinson has 80% of the Jaguars team rushing yards. He should be safe for 70+ rushing yards and a handful of catches once again, and he’s always a threat to put the ball in the end zone.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Taylor’s trip to the COVID/reserve list came at a pretty inopportune time as he just seemed to be getting back on track. I don’t think the week off is going to derail his momentum. He seems to have separated himself from Jordan Wilkins again for the early down work, and this week’s matchup is a great one for him. The Texans allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, but more importantly they allow the most running back rushing yards in the league. Nyheim Hines will of course mix in a fair amount as usual, but I’m going to make a bold claim that Taylor runs for over 100 yards and finds the end zone in this one. I think he’ll run with a little extra juice after the week off.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): This week’s attack could feature a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for Minnesota as they’re favored to win by 10 points, but you know the kind of upside that Jefferson brings to the table. Jacksonville boasts one of the worst secondaries in the league. They rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. Jefferson has been more consistent in recent weeks after having some boom-or-bust performances in the early part of the season. He’s averaged 5 catches for 89 yards on 8 targets over the past 4 games, and found the end zone 3 times in that span. The potential limited volume in an easy win this week makes him more of a WR2 than a WR1 against the Jags.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Claypool gets a difficult matchup on paper, but his usage has been very reliable over the past few weeks and Washington has been vulnerable to big plays, an area where Claypool has had success this year. The Football Team has given up more 40+ yard completions this year (9) than every team in the league except the Chargers (10). Pittsburgh hasn’t made a living on the deep ball this year, with only 8 completions of 30+ yards on the season, but 5 of those 8 went to Claypool. Washington has allowed the 2^nd fewest WR points per game and ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA, but Claypool has had 8+ targets in each of the last 5 games and his splash play prowess gives him additional upside in this one. The absence of James Conner should result in even more passing volume for this offense despite a likely positive game script. Roethlisberger attempted a season-high 51 passes last week with Conner sidelined. Claypool’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling this week even though it looks like a tough spot. Fire him up as a WR2 this Monday.

 

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): This week isn’t a great one to bet on a ceiling game out of Herbert. The Patriots have struggled against the pass on paper, ranking 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also slow the game down when they can and limit play volume on the other side. New England ranks 29^th in pace in the first half of games (seconds per offensive play run), and 31^st in pace when they have a lead. They’ve allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in 6 of their 11 games, and 2 or fewer total TDs to the opposing QB in 8 of 11. They also haven’t allowed any QB they’ve faced to throw 35 or more pass attempts. Herbert has thrown the ball 40 or more times in 6 of his 10 starts. The rookie should be a solid high-end QB2 and passable low-end QB1 this week, but it’s not crazy to consider sitting him this week in 1-QB leagues if you have a replacement you really like this weekend. Lower volume could cap his upside.

 

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Reports out of Miami on Saturday make it sound like Tua is trending toward starting this week, and he should be a reasonable QB2 if that proves to be the case on Sunday. The last time we saw Tua in action, he was lifted for Ryan Fitzpatrick due to a shaky performance against the Broncos when he was sacked 6 times. The Bengals aren’t anywhere near as daunting of a defense. They rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have just 13 sacks total in 11 games this season. Cincy has limited fantasy production out of Alex Smith and the combo of Daniel Jones & Colt McCoy over the last two weeks, but had allowed 2+ total TDs to 8 QBs in a row before those two games. Tua also has the benefit of a healthy Myles Gaskin at running back. I expect a solid performance in a plus matchup.

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): Dobbins will return from the COVID list this week, and it comes at just the right time. Dallas is burnable opponent, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 6^th-most RB points per game. We saw on Wednesday how uninspiring a healthy dose of Gus Edwards can be (10 yards and a TD on 9 carries vs. Pittsburgh). The Ravens get both Dobbins and Mark Ingram back this week, but in the last two games both were healthy for, Dobbins saw 20 carries and 4 targets to Ingram’s 7 and 2. The game script should be very positive in this game assuming Lamar Jackson is able to play. Baltimore was favored by a TD with Lamar’s status still uncertain. I’d look for 15 or so touches from Dobbins this week, and a strong likelihood he finishes the week as an RB2.

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy production has been wildly uneven since the team signed Le’Veon Bell. He’s put up fantasy point totals of 12.8, 4.6, 10.9, 20.2, and 4.4 in the 5 games with Bell active. He did, however, play his highest snap share yet with Bell on the roster in week 12, and he’s found the end zone 4 times in those last 5 games. Denver is a defense that is easier to attack on the ground than through the air, especially since AJ Bouye returned from IR in week 7. The Broncos have allowed 18.5 or more QB points in 8 games this year. Bouye was inactive for 5 of them and left one of the other 3 with injury. Denver ranks just 19^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game. There is risk with CEH every week, but this is a week that I would bet on him returning RB2 value. Make sure he suits up before pulling the trigger. He was questionable with an illness as of Saturday.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Gibson has been on fire lately, finishing as a top-8 fantasy back in 4 of his last 5 games (and the RB17 in the other). He found the end zone 8 times in those 5 games, with at least 1 score in each, but I’m here to dump a little cold water on the rookie this week. Gibson’s hot streak has coincided with an easier stretch of the schedule where Washington has played from ahead regularly. 3 of their 4 wins on the season came during the stretch, and Gibson still hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in a team loss. His passing game usage has kept him fantasy viable in most of his down weeks, but he still gives way to JD McKissic on a lot of 3^rd downs when they’re trailing. In the team’s 7 losses, Gibson averages playing just 46% of the snaps gaining just 66 scrimmage yards, and Washington is an 8-point underdog against the Steelers this week. The Steelers are one of the toughest RB matchups in the league. They allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. They also should limit Gibson’s receiving output. No team in the league allows fewer RB catches and receiving yards than the Steelers do. I know it would be hard to sit Gibson this week given the output you’ve gotten from him recently, but if he doesn’t find the end zone for the 6^th straight game, you may be cursing his name Monday.

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Keep an eye on the health updates with Swift. Editor's Note: Swift is inactive for Week 13. Obviously it’ll be tough to sit him if he plays, but there were reports that his snaps would be limited if he’s able to go and he was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday. The matchup isn’t a great one with the Bears ranking 5^th in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 8^th-most RB rushing yards per game. Swift has topped 95 scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 5 games and was heavily involved in the passing game with at least 4 targets each week in that span. I wouldn’t expect him to be nearly as involved this week if he is able to play. I’d view him more as a desperation flex, and would probably lean against playing him if he’s active.

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Pittman has come into his own as the Colts’ WR1 in recent weeks, averaging nearly 7 targets per game in his last 4, and this week faces a defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. He had a bit of a down game last week with just 2 catches for 28 yards against the Titans, but he was targeted 9 times in that game. The volume should be there again this week. Phillip Rivers has thrown the ball 36 or more times in 5 of his last 6 games, and Pittman gets the best opportunity to take advantage of this defense against Phillip Gaines thanks to Bradley Roby’s PED suspension. Gaines has allowed a team-worst 18.3 yards per completion on throws into his coverage, and allowed a 60% completion rate. Roby was injured earlier this year 3 snaps into a game against Green Bay in week 7 and missed the following game as well. The opposing WR1s in those two games were Davante Adams (13-196-2) and DJ Chark (7-146-1). I’m not saying Pittman is going to have that kind of day, but I’d be shocked if he has another 2-28 kind of performance. He’s a great value in DFS tournaments at just $4,900 on DraftKings, and a WR3 with big upside this week.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Jeudy had a predictably terrible fantasy day last week with zero catches with practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton throwing the ball. Hinton completed just one pass all day. Drew Lock should be back under center in this one, and that should be a big help to all of the receiving weapons. Keep an eye on the injury report as Jeudy is questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s got a healthy amount of upside. The entire passing game struggled in the first meeting with Kansas City, including Jeudy who posted 2 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. In the 4 games since that meeting (not including last week), Jeudy has averaged 10 targets and 76 receiving yards per week. He gets a tough individual matchup this week with Bashaud Breeland, but the Broncos should be throwing a lot this week and that volume will keep Jeudy in play as an upside WR3 if he’s able to take the field.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Aiyuk should return from his stint on the COVID/reserve list this week, and he was performing well before being placed on it. The rookie had topped 70 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games he played in, but Deebo Samuel wasn’t active for any of them. His return should make the target breakdown tougher to predict with both active. Samuel commanded 13 targets in an upset win last weekend while Aiyuk was out, and having the duo out there together this week will probably limit the ceiling for each. The Bills have a formidable secondary with Levi Wallace and Tre’Davious White each allowing right around 8 yards per target. Neither corner is allowing even 3 yards after catch per completion into their coverage. Aiyuk averages 5 yards after catch per reception. Samuel averages 13. Kyle Shanahan is creative enough that he’ll be able to scheme the ball to these guys in positions to make plays, but only Seattle has managed to get two receivers to 10 fantasy points against Buffalo in the Bills’ last 8 games. If only one 49er gets to 10, there is a chance it’s Aiyuk who has the solid game, but my money would be on Samuel after what we saw from him last week. Aiyuk is on the flex radar Sunday.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Lamb should be a floor flex play once again this week in another tough matchup. He’ll draw coverage from Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Humphrey has allowed just 6.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and zero touchdowns. The Cowboys are probably going to play from behind and will have to throw, and Lamb has 4 receptions in each of his last 4 games. He’s got the raw talent to have a big game unexpectedly, but if you’re playing him you just hope he gets in the end zone or clears 10 PPR points.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Higgins did manage to post a 5-44-1 line on 5 targets in Brandon Allen’s first start last weekend, but that’s pretty much what a successful week is going to look like for him with Burrow out. Tyler Boyd did lead the Bengals in targets last week and he gets the best individual matchup of the Cincy receivers this week, facing Nik Needham in the slot. Higgins will match up mostly with Xavien Howard, who has been tough but given up some big plays. He’s allowed just a 46% completion rate into his coverage, but has given up 15 yards per completion and 3 touchdowns on the year. Higgins is always a threat to find the end zone, and that keeps him in the flex discussion, but you’ll probably need him to score to provide a useful fantasy day.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Mooney and Mitch Trubisky seemed to have a connection early in the year even with Mooney playing limited snaps, and Trubisky continued to look his way in his return to the starting QB role. In the first two weeks of the season, Mooney turned 6 Trubisky targets into 6 catches for 74 yards and a TD. The efficiency wasn’t nearly as high last week against Green Bay, but Trubisky threw Mooney’s way 9 times in the loss. It resulted in 3 catches for 34 yards. The game script should be a bit more positive this week for Chicago, so passing volume could be down, but against Detroit’s rag-tag secondary the efficiency should be better. The Lions rank just 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Mooney has been a dicey flex option most weeks, only reaching 60 receiving yards in 1 game this year, so he’s more of a desperation option this week, but I do like his chances of having one of his better games of the year.

 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): There was a lot of talk of Hurts getting to play a bit more last week with the way Carson Wentz has been struggling, but that didn’t really come to fruition on Monday night with Hurts playing just 2 snaps. He did make a crisp throw to Alshon Jeffery on one of those snaps, but it looks like he’ll have to supplant Wentz as the starter to have any fantasy value. For his part, Wentz didn’t really do anything to inspire confidence in his ability to get the job done against the Seahawks, but Philly has so much invested in their QB that it would take an awful lot for them to bench him. Keep an eye on the situation, but for now Hurts is no more than a stash for 2-QB formats with more value in dynasty leagues than redraft.

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers defense allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and has been getting healthier, and Moss is still splitting snaps with Devin Singletary. He’s been playing slightly more than his backfield counterpart, but he’s only reached 60% of the offensive snaps once all year and Cam Akers is the only running back to score 11+ fantasy points against the 49ers while playing less than 66% of the snaps. In fact, Frank Gore is the only non-Ram to run for more than 60 yards against San Francisco all year, and that was back in week 2. If Moss falls into the end zone in this one he’d return at least flex value, but I’d probably avoid making that bet. Josh Allen is as likely (actually more likely) to get the goal line rushing opportunities as Moss.

 

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): The return of Austin Ekeler puts a pretty solid cap on Josh Kelley’s opportunity going forward. It was nice to see Kelley get into the end zone to vulture a TD from Ekeler last weekend, but it’s entirely possible that he goes to the bench for Kalen Ballage when Ballage gets healthy, which could happen as soon as this week. Kelley has played less than 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and Ekeler and Ballage haven’t both been active at the same time in any of them. There is more chance of Kelley’s playing time going down than up if this backfield is healthy.

 

RB Anthony McFarland Jr., PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): With James Conner out after testing positive for Covid-19, this seemed to be a golden opportunity for the Steelers to get McFarland more involved and see what the rookie can do. He did play his highest snap count of the year on Wednesday against the Ravens, but that was still just 19% of the offensive snaps and he ended the day with just 4 touches and 26 scrimmage yards. The Washington defense he faces this week allows fewer RB points per game than Baltimore. You can’t roll him out there in any leagues this week even though Conner is expected to be out again.

 

RB DeeJay Dalls, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): With Chris Carson back in action Dallas didn’t play a single offensive snap last week. I don’t foresee a big playing time spike this week that would result in him being a playable fantasy option. The Giants allow the 14^th-most RB points per game, but Dallas isn’t the one who will be scoring those points for Seattle.

 

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): In case you missed the news Saturday, Ahmed is listed as doubtful and isn’t expected to play in this game. Even if he were surprisingly able to suit up, Myles Gaskin has been activated off injured reserve and will function as the lead back. Ahmed would only see change-of-pace work or garbage time work if he ends up active on Sunday.

 

WRs Laviska Shenault & Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): Collin Johnson announced himself with some authority last weekend, posting 4-96-1 on a team-high 8 targets. We’ve seen throughout his career that Glennon likes big targets on the outside, and the 6’6” Johnson fits the bill. Unfortunately for him, the return of DJ Chark and Chris Conley this week will force him back to a backup role. The 80% snap share he played in week 12 was his highest of the season by nearly 50%. I would expect DJ Chark to be the guy Glennon looks to most often in week 13. Laviska Shenault has some upside in a plus matchup (the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game), but Viska hasn’t been anything more than a floor flex play most of this season. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just 3 times all year and found the end zone just once. He’s not the kind of player you want to bet on having a big game in a week where you may need it most. I’d prefer both DJ Chark and Keelan Cole to Shenault this week.

 

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): As I mentioned with Jerry Jeudy, there’s no reason to take anything away from last week’s game with Kendall Hinton at QB. Burn the tape and throw it away and pretend it never happened when looking at Denver pass catchers. Prior to last week Hamler had been putting up reasonable performances, but still comfortably behind Jeudy’s production. In the 3 games before facing the Saints, KJ totaled 14 catches for 160 yards and 1 rush for 15. Much like the rest of the Denver offense, Hamler wasn’t great in the first meeting with Kansas City as he posted just 2 catches for 24 yards on 3 targets and a rush for 10. I like his chances to exceed those numbers this time around, but he gets a tough individual matchup. Kansas City’s slot corner L’Jarius Sneed is allowing just 4.9 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and Hamler is unlikely to see as many targets as Jeudy or fellow teammate Tim Patrick. I’d leave Hamler benched this week unless Jeudy winds up inactive.

 

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): Things are trending in the wrong direction for Reagor to be able to make a fantasy impact as a rookie. He was shaping up to have WR1 usage for this team for a few weeks there, playing 73, 88, and 93% of the offensive snaps in the three games prior to week 12, but last week he lost snap share to Alshon Jeffery. Reagor played just 61% of the snaps in week 12. The Eagles are also likely to get Zach Ertz back from IR this week, and that could siphon targets away from the rest of the passing game. Ertz was averaging 7.5 targets per game before going down with injury, and while he wasn’t particularly efficient with those targets, Carson Wentz still looks to him as a safety blanket. Reagor has been averaging about 6 targets per game and 31.5 receiving yards per game over the last 4 contests, and any volume coming away from that will make him pretty unusable for fantasy purposes. The opponent this week, Green Bay, allows the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, so it isn’t a plus matchup for Reagor. There’s a chance that getting Ertz back as an underneath weapon helps open up the deep passing game more and helps Reagor, but I’d rather see that before I trust it’s going to happen. The Eagles’ passing game as a whole has been a mess this year.

 

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): I’ve tried to predict potential breakout games for Duvernay a couple times this year without much luck, so I’m not going to do that this week. Dallas is a great matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 3^rd-most points per game to the position. They’ve also been burned for big plays, allowing 8 catches of 40+ yards on the season (only Washington and the Chargers have allowed more), but Duvernay hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this year. The addition of Dez Bryant has resulted in more target competition for Duvernay, making his breakout game even more unlikely. Bryant has been targeted 7 times in the last two weeks. Duvernay has been active for all 11 games and has just 23 targets for the season.

 

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 13: @NYJ): The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most WR points per game, and you still can’t trust either of these rookie wide receivers to help your fantasy squad this week. Ruggs has reached double-digit fantasy points just once all year, and hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any game. Is there a chance he hits a big play and has a good game? Sure, but if he doesn’t, I hope you enjoy your 2-25 on 4 targets line. Bryan Edwards played just 30% of the snaps last week in a blowout loss where the Raiders were throwing all game. He’s well behind Nelson Agholor and Ruggs for playing time right now.

 

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Kenny Golladay is on track to miss yet another game this week, but Danny Amendola seems to be on track to return. Golladay missed the first meeting with the Bears, a game where Cephus saw 10 targets come his way, but his role has pretty much evaporated since then. Quintez has been no more than the team’s part-time WR3 with Kenny out, and has seen exactly 2 targets in each of the last 4 games. He’ll need more volume than that to be useful, and you can’t count on him getting it this week.

 

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 13: @Ten.): This is a decent matchup for a tight end with the Titans allowing the 8^th-most TE points per game, but Bryant has been a non-factor as a receiver since Austin Hooper returned to the lineup. Bryant has just 1 catch on two targets over the last 3 games combined despite playing more than 55% of the offensive snaps in each game. He’s more of a run blocker than a receiving threat right now, and isn’t likely to help you this week in any formats.

 

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Kmet has seen his snap share increase in 4 straight games – he even played 30 more offensive snaps than Jimmy Graham last week – but Graham is still the tight end seeing the targets and receiving yards. Kmet has just 3 catches for 17 yards on 7 targets over the last 4 games. Graham has posted 11-100-1 on 19 targets in that same span. The changing of the guard hasn’t happened yet, and Detroit allows the 9^th-fewest TE points per game.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 13: @Ari.): Akers hasn’t reached the point where he’s a good weekly fantasy option just yet, but he’s at least part of the rotation again. In weeks 5, 6 and 7, Akers played a total of 17 offensive snaps. Since then he’s averaged 17 per game, and his play has improved as Darrell Henderson’s has faded. Henderson has just 24 rushing yards on 18 carries in the last 2 weeks while Akers has 101 yards on 14 carries. He’s their only back that has given them any kind of spark in the running game in recent weeks, and it’s bound to lead to more opportunities for the rookie. It’s not great that 31% of his scrimmage yards from the past 4 weeks came from one play, but he’s trending in the right direction. It would take some serious balls to play him in a less than ideal matchup this week (Arizona allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, and this is still a 3-man committee backfield), but he shouldn’t be sitting out there on the waiver wire in most leagues. He remains available in 65% of ESPN leagues.

 

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. LV): Mims is currently one of the most overlooked weekly WR options in fantasy football. I get that the Jets are a terrible team, but there has been fantasy production to take advantage of here. Mims is available in 91% of ESPN fantasy leagues, and all he’s done since getting activated in week 7 is average 6.6 targets and 57 yards per game. In the past 3 games those numbers are at 7.7 and 66. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but it’s coming. This week he gets a favorable matchup against struggling rookie corner Damon Arnette. Arnette has allowed a team-worst 75% completion percentage on throws into his coverage, and while he hasn’t been tested deep very much, Mims has the wheels to burn him if the Jets test it out. Mims ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine while Arnette ran 4.56. The Jets as usual should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch, and I like Mims’ chances of posting his best fantasy game of the season.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers are not an easy matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-fewest points per game to the position, but we saw again last week that Davis typically produces when John Brown is out of the lineup. Davis has caught for 50+ yards 4 times this season, and 3 of them came in the 4 games where Brown played less than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps (3 games Brown missed and one that he left early with injury). Davis has also played at least 95% of the offensive snaps in all 3 games Brown missed. Jason Verrett isn’t an easy matchup on the outside, but #1 receiver Stefon Diggs will be dealing with Richard Sherman on the other side. Davis isn’t much more than an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments or a deep league flex option, but 50+ yards is probably a reasonable expectation.

 

WR Isaiah Coulter, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Editor's Note: Coulter is inactive for this week's matchup. Coulter has been gifted a huge opportunity thanks to the positive PED test and suspension of Will Fuller this week. Coulter is expected to step into Fuller’s spot in the lineup at least until Randall Cobb returns from IR (it’s unclear how the lineup will look when Cobb returns since both Cobb and Keke Coutee are best suited to the slot), and any full time role with Deshaun Watson as your QB warrants a look from fantasy players. Coulter is a bit raw after playing at the FCS level for Rhode Island, but he has the tools and traits to develop into a decent NFL receiver. He’s got speed, running a 4.45 40-yard dash at the combine. That isn’t Will Fuller fast, but it’s fast enough. He also steps into an offense with a lot of passing volume, and one where most of the receiving volume goes to the wide receivers. The Texans are 5^th in the league in passing yards with Watson averaging 291 yards per game, and 70% of their receiving yards have gone to the receivers. With that situation, Coulter is worth stashing in deep leagues, but he shouldn’t be plugged in anywhere this week. His fantasy ceiling will only come if he’s able to replace Fuller’s deep threat role, and the Colts have allowed just 4 completions of 40+ yards all year. This isn’t a week to hope for a big play from Isaiah. He should be monitored though.

 

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Trautman isn’t a name that most people know, but he’s actually led the Saints in tight end snaps in each of the past 3 games, likely because he’s a better run blocker than Jared Cook & Josh Hill and the team has been run-heavy with Taysom Hill at QB. There haven’t been a ton of targets for the rookie (he’s had one catch on one target in each of Hill’s two starts, including 1-19 against these Falcons), but matchups don’t get better for tight ends than this one. Atlanta allows a league-high thirteen TE points per game. I wouldn’t play him in season-long leagues, but he’s a decent dart throw for DFS tournaments. He’ll cost the minimum for normal DraftKings tournaments, and just $400 on the Showdown slate for the Saints-Falcons game.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. There are a lot of rookies with fluid injury situations this week, and COVID could strike a player at any time, so make sure to check the active/inactive updates before kickoff and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.