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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a 1-week hiatus, and it looks like we missed a pretty explosive week for some rookie receivers, not to mention the scintillating first start of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson won’t hold up for long if he keeps carrying the ball 27 times per game, but it worked at least in this one. Not to be outdone, DJ Moore and Tre’Quan Smith each put on a show in week 11. Christian Kirk finished the week as a top-20 option, Keke Coutee was in the top-30 for the week, and Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller ended up in the top-40. Marcell Ateman and Trey Quinn were also each productive in their first real action of the season. Saquon kept being Saquon, Lindsay kept being Lindsay, but the rest of the rookie RB crop was quiet in week 11 outside of a breakout performance by unknown Gus Edwards. Will any of these trends continue this week? Let’s dive in and take a look…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 12: @Phi.): You obviously know what to do with Saquon, but I wanted to give a little background on the matchup this week. The Eagles’ injury-riddled defense has allowed 31 RB points per game in their last 5 contests (all scoring and rankings are in PPR format). There are only 3 teams in the league that allow more than that per game for the year. The return of Timmy Jernigan this week might help Philly, but the Saquon show doesn’t take weeks off.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Like Philly’s, the Cincinnati defense has been crumbling of late. Over their past 8 games, the Bungles have coughed up more than 135 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing scores to RBs. Chubb should be a strong RB2 play in this one.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Michel should’ve had a chance to get healthier over New England’s bye last weekend, and he gets a great situation this week. The Pats are 9.5-point favorites on the road at the Meadowlands this week. The game script should be run-heavy and the Jets have a middling run defense that ranks 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Only 6 teams have allowed more rushing scores to backs than the Jets.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Edwards should be a great option this week, especially in non-PPR formats. I did list Phillip Lindsay in the borderline category this week, but I’d be hard-pressed to start Edwards over him in a PPR league. With that said, I love Edwards this week. I can’t imagine the Ravens would go back to Alex Collins this week after the performance Edwards put together against the Bengals, and the Raiders have been shredded on the ground this year. Baltimore is a double-digit favorite, and Oakland has given up more than 100 running back rush yards in 8 of their last 10 games, and more than 150 in 4 of them. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability from the QB position only serves to open up more lanes for Edwards. If you managed to get Gus on the wire this week, find a way to get him into your lineup.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Mayfield is nearly a must-start in 2-QB leagues this week, but he’s a borderline option in leagues where you start just one. Baker’s been really consistent over the past month-plus, and has seemed to turn a corner since Hue and Haley were fired. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 straight starts, and has only turned the ball over twice in those games. Cincinnati has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game. Keep rolling with Baker in 2-QB formats until he gives you a reason not to.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Jackson was phenomenal in his first NFL start, and he gets rewarded with one of the easiest matchups imaginable. We already know what Jackson can do with his legs and his running ability, and this week he faces a Raiders team that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and has allowed multiple passing scores in 9 of the 10 games they’ve played. Jackson is a high-upside QB2 this week with some borderline QB1 appeal in deeper leagues.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): I’d still lean toward starting Lindsay even though I listed him as a borderline option. I just want to emphasize that this is one of the tougher matchups he’ll face. The Steelers have allowed the 7^th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and the Broncos have really failed to feature Lindsay as much as they should. He’s been hyper-efficient, averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry, but he’s received more than 15 carries in a game just twice all year, and has more than 3 receptions just twice as well.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): It’s been a while since Calvin teased us with his string of blowup games in the season’s first few weeks. He’s shown a floor right around 7 points, but we’ve kind of lost the ceiling a bit. This week is as good as any to take a chance on him finding it again. The Saints have allowed more WR points per game than any other team, and the Falcons are likely to be throwing as 2-score underdogs. The risk of another floor game is still there, but Ridley is a reasonable upside WR3 this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Moore’s coming-out party last weekend was a blast, but Carolina’s passing volume is never a given. Cam Newton has thrown fewer than 30 times in 4 of Carolina’s 6 wins this year, and the Panthers are favored this week. He could see a bigger target share with Devin Funchess listed as questionable, and we’ve seen him flash the skills to be a big-time player in this league. If the volume is there, he should be a solid WR3 this week.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Smith had a huge breakout game last weekend against Philadelphia, but he looks iffy to play on Thursday night after missing Tuesday’s practice and getting in a limited session Wednesday. He revealed last Sunday that Drew Brees pulled him aside to tell him the reason he threw him the ball on his 2^nd TD catch was because he trusts him. That could just be a motivational tactic from Brees, or it could be a positive sign for Smith going forward. The Saints have so many mouths to feed in this offense that it leads to some low-floor performances. We’ve seen those with Tre’Quan a couple times in recent weeks. The Falcons do allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, so the matchup is ripe for another strong performance if Smith is able to play. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): The Lions corners outside of Darius Slay have struggled mightily in coverage this year. Several secondary receivers have torn this defense apart this season: Danny Amendola (6-84-1), David Moore (4-97-1), DJ Moore (7-157-1), Equanimeous St. Brown (3-89), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (7-68-1), Quincy Enunwa (6-63-1) and notably Miller himself (5-122-1) have all had strong days against this defense. I’d expect the Lions to be a little more aware of Miller this time around, and he’ll likely be catching passes from Chase Daniel rather than Mitch Trubisky, but he’s still a decent flex option in deeper leagues and has a ton of DFS tourney upside.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): Rosen has made some strides in his rookie year. He’s made some big plays to Christian Kirk and had his first 3-TD game last week, but he’s still throwing for minimal yardage (just 2 games over 210 yards and peak of 252), and the Chargers have been stingy against the pass of late. They’ve allowed just 5 passing scores in their past 6 contests, and have allowed just 1 QB to top 250 yards passing and one to top 16 fantasy points in that span. Rosen isn’t the type to overcome that for a solid day.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): It’s looking more and more like Darnold is going to miss this game. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d still steer clear if he does play. It’s possible the bye week got him straightened out (both physically and mentally), but I wouldn’t count on it. Darnold turned the ball over 4 times twice in his last 3 starts. There could be some garbage time upside for Darnold in this one with the Pats heavily favored, but you know better than to chase garbage time points.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Allen looks set to return just in time to face one of the most fearsome pass defenses in the league, Jalen Ramsey and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA, and the Bills’ offense remains a dumpster fire. A rusty Josh Allen could get roughed up a bit in his return.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay above, the Steelers are a tough matchup for RBs, and Freeman is getting by on touchdowns alone. He hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards in a game or more than 10 fantasy points since week 4.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Smith has just 10 carries for 21 yards in the last two weeks, and the Saints allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. Ito continues to see some goal line work, but not enough that you can bank on it. He also isn’t seeing enough action in the passing game to offset his poor rushing performances. This game should be pass-heavy for Atlanta with the Saints favored by 12. It looks like more of a Tevin Coleman night for the Falcons backfield.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 12: @Car.): Penny should continue to work as the number 2 back behind Chris Carson this week. He’s been pretty efficient with his touches over the last 2 games, but the Panthers have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game and rank a respectable 12^th in run defense DVOA. Penny has managed to top 6 PPR points just 3 times all year, and reached double-digits just once. The upside isn’t there for you to trust Penny unless something happens to Carson.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Jordan Wilkins pleasantly surprised in week 11 by scoring a TD, but he and Hines still combined for just 9 carries and 3 targets in a game that the Colts won by 4(!) scores. This backfield is Marlon Mack’s show until further notice.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): This isn’t the best week to roll our Christian Kirk. The Chargers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, and just one wide receiver has found the end zone against them in the past 5 games. Kirk’s role in this offense is secure, but his upside is severely limited this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Sutton has played pretty well over the past 3 games, averaging 3-71, but the QB play of Case Keenum holds this entire offense back, and the Steelers have been playing much improved pass defense of late. They’ve allowed fewer than 30 WR fantasy points in each of the last 4 contests. Only 2 teams in the league have allowed fewer than 30 per game on the year.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Gallup is dealing with the suicide death of his brother from last weekend, and also has to get ready on a short week for a Thursday game. I’m surprised he’s going to play. Some people feel like it’s a welcome distraction from the grief to go play a game and not think about it. Brett Favre played one of the greatest games of his career after the death of his father, but I can’t imagine taking the field so soon after the death of an immediate family member and being able to focus on football. I wish Gallup all the best both on and off the field this week.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): The new coaching regime has opened up the game plan and gotten other weapons more involved in Cleveland (most notably Duke Johnson Jr.), and that’s made Callaway’s already low floor even lower. His stats haven’t dropped off much, but his targets have. In the 7 games prior to the coaching change, Callaway averaged 6.3 targets per game. He’s had just 7 total in the 2 games since the change. There may be some upside in DFS tournaments this week, but I would take my chances elsewhere.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): If you’re looking for spots to use Goedert in any format, you’re searching for the opportunities where he has the best chances of finding the end zone. In each game this year he’s either scored a TD and finished with double-digit fantasy points or failed to score 4 points. This week isn’t a prime opportunity for a touchdown. The Giants have allowed just one TE to hit paydirt all year.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): These two might be a decent DFS dart throw if they were one guy, but individually there just isn’t enough upside to roll the dice, especially in tougher matchups. Only one team has scored double-digit points against Tennessee from the tight end position, and that was Zach Ertz and the Eagles.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): It’s pretty hard to trust much of the Philly offense after their putrid performance in week 11, but Adams was a bright spot. He continued to produce with limited touches, and now has averaged 7.6 carries and 53.6 yards per game in the last 3 (7 ypc). This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. The game script also should be much better for Adams with the Eagles favored by a touchdown. Adams should be a good option in deeper leagues and a bargain in DFS tournaments.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Bringing in Demaryius Thomas hasn’t affected Coutee the way I feared it would. Coutee posted a 5-77 line in his return from a hamstring injury, and the Titans are a good matchup for him this week. Tennessee ranks 24^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): MVS could be in line for a bounce-back week after he burned a lot of fantasy owners in week 11. The Vikings rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 receiver, but just 25^th on throws to the number 2 guy. Xavier Rhodes probably has a lot to do with that. It might not be a great week to go for Davante Adams in DFS lineups, but Valdes-Scantling has some appeal in DFS tourneys in deeper fantasy formats.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ from the 2018 draft made some noise in his first regular season action. It may be point chasing to point him out as a sleeper now, but this is a team that has really missed Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson this year. This team loves to throw to their slot receivers, as evidenced by the 15-176 that Maurice Harris tallied in weeks 9 & 10. Those numbers didn’t stop Quinn from supplanting him in week 11. Jamison Crowder could return this week, but Quinn should be a decent floor PPR option going forward in the same vein as Bruce Ellington or Cole Beasley.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Ateman is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues and in dynasty formats. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant have shown time and again this year that they can’t be relied upon to produce or stay healthy, and Ateman’s 4-catch, 50-yard debut is already the 4^th-best receiving yardage total any Raider WR has posted in a game this season. He’s a big, raw, physical player who could make a splash down the stretch. The reason why I call Ateman a stash is because this week’s matchup is a tough one. Baltimore allows just the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, but the coast gets a little clearer after. The Chiefs, Steelers and Bengals are the opponents that follow, and the Raiders should be throwing a bunch in each game.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Herndon has turned into the clear top TE on this team over the course of the season, and the Pats are quietly struggling to defend the position this year. New England has allowed 6 tight end scores in the past 6 games, and at least 50 receiving yards to them in each contest as well. Herndon hasn’t caught for a ton of yards, but he’s reached 10 points or more 3 times in the past 5 games. He’s a back-end TE1 this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your toughest decisions involving rookies. This week is a critical one with only two weeks left before the fantasy playoffs begin. Make sure to double-check your lineups for any players with games on Thursday, and this especially goes for players with injury designations that play on the holiday. Kerryon Johnson, Chris Thompson and Marvin Jones have already been ruled out and Tre’Quan Smith, Mitch Trubisky and a host of others are questionable as well. Make sure you aren’t starting inactive players before going into your turkey comas on Thursday. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Time, it does indeed fly by!

Once we get past this set of games, we will be past the third quarter of the season. We are getting into crunch time. Plus we still have some teams on a bye which means every game in the Confidence Pool counts.

So let’s keep the momentum moving!

Week 12 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

14 – CLEVELAND over Miami – It’s been a disappointing season off of Lake Erie, but at least they get a home game against the Dolphins.

13 – NEW ORLEANS over Carolina – I saw a show talking about how important this game was for the Panthers…as if they hadn’t already been written out of this season.

12 – BUFFALO over Denver – The battle of the Allens in Orchard Park shouldn’t be a close one.

11 – Oakland over NEW YORK JETS – With a trip to KC next week, people have called this a trap game for the Raiders. Not likely! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE RAIDERS WILL OVERTAKE THE CHIEFS AND WIN THE AFC WEST!

10 – NEW ENGLAND over Dallas – Home games against “good” teams are still easy pickings for the Patriots.

9 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – The Titans are slowly creeping up as a playoff contender.

8 – HOUSTON over Indianapolis – The week kicks off with a game that could go a long way in deciding the AFC South. Lucky for the Texans this game is in Houston.

7 – Baltimore over LOS ANGELES RAMS – These aren’t your Rams of 2018 – which means they can’t hang with the Ravens of 2019.

6 – ATLANTA over Tampa Bay – I’ve decided to pick the Falcons to win again…which means that they will probably fall short.

5 – Green Bay over SAN FRANCISCO – The 9ers are good, but I think they will get a bit of a rude awakening the way the Packers have been playing.

4 – Detroit over WASHINGTON – It is me or does it feel like the Lions are the best 3 win team in recent memory?

3 – CHICAGO over New York Giants – If the Giants end up winning this one, I wouldn’t be surprised.

2 – PHILADELPHIA – Seattle – Thoughts of a home loss to the Patriots should still be fresh in the minds of the Eagles.

1 – CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh – After an impressive showing in Oakland last wee, I have a hunch that the Bengals will finally get that first win at home this week.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the final week bye week of the season. Hopefully you’re in good playoff position heading into this week. Week 11 had some exciting new developments, including the continued breakout of Deebo Samuel and the debut of N’Keal Harry, but let’s not live in the past. Let’s look at what to expect from week 12…

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): As usual, Jacobs is an obvious start this week. He’s not quite a chalk DFS play, but he should be a fine fantasy starter in this one. The Jets have been tough on running backs for a team with just 3 wins. They’ve allowed the 13^th fewest RB PPR points per game and rank 2^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but the Raiders should feed Jacobs once again. They’re a 3-point road favorite and should have no problem keeping the game script at least neutral. Jacobs has run for 110 or more yards in 4 of his past 6 games and has multiple receptions in 6 of his last 7.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Sanders didn’t exactly have the breakout game we all hoped for last weekend with Jordan Howard out, but I like his chances to have that big day this week if Howard sits again. New England is one of the toughest RB matchups in the league because they allow the 2^nd lowest RB receiving production in the league. The Seahawks aren’t a complete pushover, allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, but they rank just 16^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 11^th-highest yards per rush attempt. They’ve also allowed 3 backs this year to reach 8+ catches and 60+ receiving yards in a game. If Sanders gets a full workload he should be a safe RB2 with so many backs out of commission this week. If Howard plays, he falls to more of an RB3 or flex option.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 12: @Phi.): On the other side of the Philly-Seattle game, DK Metcalf looks poised to have a strong week facing a secondary that allows the 7^th-most WR PPR points per game. Metcalf has been playing at a high level lately, and the Seahawks will have Tyler Lockett playing at less than 100%. In his last 4 games, Metcalf has turned 33 targets into 19-259-3. DK is a little pricey to be a sneaky DFS play this week, but he should be a strong WR3 and passable WR3 in a smash spot this week.

Borderline Rookies: 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Singletary has become the clear lead back in Buffalo, and in a week with numerous injuries and byes at the top of the position, he has to be in RB2 consideration, but the matchup is a bit dicey this week. The Broncos allow the 12^th-fewest RB points per game and haven’t allowed more than 76 rushing yards to an opposing back since week 4 (Marlon Mack hit 76 against them in week 8). They also rank 6^th in run defense DVOA. Singletary remains a solid option and a decent bet to reach double-digit PPR points, but his ceiling isn’t exciting this week. 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): You know the drill with Montgomery. The usage has been there, but the rushing efficiency hasn’t. He’s averaged 4 yards per carry or more in a game just twice this season. Monty has had at least 14 carries and 15 touches in each of the last 4 games, and with Chicago favored by almost a touchdown this week I’d expect that streak to be safe, but he’ll likely finish as a low-end RB2 if he doesn’t get into the end zone. The Giants have given up just 8 RB scores on the year (rushing or receiving). The volume will make Montgomery a passable floor play with the hope for more.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 12: vs. GB): There is a lot up in the air this week for the 49ers offense with regard to injuries. Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, Matt Breida, and George Kittle are all not taking contact yet as of Thursday. The 49ers seem to have found something in Samuel, so he should be a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup with Green Bay if he plays, but if you have safe options that play earlier in the day it would probably make sense to get them in the lineup rather than wait on Deebo. The Packers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAR): Brown is more of a ceiling play than anything this week. The Rams have been ok against opposing wide receivers, limiting them to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but Brown is likely to have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey for much of this game. Julio Jones is the only team WR1 to reach 70 yards against the Rams since week 4. Brown’s deep threat skills make him an intriguing upside option, but this week could be a tough one for him if he doesn’t get a deep ball.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): McLaurin got back on track to some degree last week, totaling 69 yards on just 4 targets against the Jets. He also had a 67-yard catch nixed by a penalty. All in all, it was a good sign for McLaurin moving forward. He gets another plus matchup this week against a Lions’ secondary that has been cooked lately, allowing five 80+ yard receiving days and 7 WR touchdowns in their last 5 games. McLaurin is in play as a WR3 in a favorable matchup, but beware there is still a low floor given the shaky QB play he’s getting.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Renfrow has fully emerged as a weekly PPR WR3 streamer over the last few weeks. The Raiders have actively looked to involve him in the passing game, and he gets a great matchup this week. In his last 4 games he’s gone 19-250-2 on 22 targets. He gets to face the Jets this week, who allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. I’d expect a double-digit PPR output from Renfrow this week, putting him back in that WR3 range.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 12: @Buf.): Fant will be an interesting option at the tail end of the TE1 range this week. With Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce on byes this week, the TE position is a little uglier than usual. The Bills have been as tough a matchup as there is for tight ends this year. They’ve given up just 1 touchdown to the position, allowed only 1 TE to catch more than 4 passes, and only 1 to top 50 receiving yards, and they weren’t the same tight end. Fant has been on a bit of a tear since the Broncos traded Emmanuel Sanders and Jeff Heuerman has been hurt. In the last 3 weeks, Fant has been targeted 23 times and totaled 12-201-1. The usage should be there even in the tough matchup. Fant’s ceiling won’t be great, but he has a reasonable shot at being the second tight end to reach 50 yards against Buffalo.

Rookies to Sit: 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Jones has been a road warrior this season, averaging 24.5 fantasy points per road start compared with 11.25 points per home start, but that largely is a result of who his opponents were. His 3 blowup performances came against the defenses that allow the 2^nd, 4^th and 11^th-most points per game to opposing QBs. This week’s opponent allows the 5^th-fewest and have allowed just 9 passing scores in 10 games. Jones has turned the ball over 11 times in his last 5 starts. He’ll need rushing production to make him even a worthwhile QB2 play this week in a brutal matchup. If you’re considering Jones in a 1 QB format you’re doing yourself a disservice this week.

QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Finley had a prime opportunity to have a decent game last week and he fell horribly flat, completing just 42% of his passes for 115 yards, zero TDs and a pick. This week he’ll face a Steelers’ defense that has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards and forced 16 QB turnovers in those games. If Finley were your last option in a superflex league, I’d consider starting a non-QB instead.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): Johnson returned from his injury last weekend, but he didn’t return to his normal role. I think Bo Scarbrough’s early down role might become the new normal in Detroit rather than a one-game fluke. Both Ty Johnson and JD McKissic are more built to be third down backs rather than early down grinders. Washington has given up the 5^th-most rushing yards per game to opposing backs, and I’d look more to the new guy Scarbrough to be the best fantasy option in the Lions’ backfield this week. 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 12: @NE): It was nice to see Pollard get into the end zone last week and make the most of his opportunities, but the Cowboys enter week 12 as a touchdown underdog and Pollard doesn’t get opportunities when the Cowboys are behind. 37 of his 51 carries this season have come with Dallas in the lead (27 of them with a multiple score lead) and 8 of his 11 targets came with the team ahead as well. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allow the fewest RB points per game and allow fewer than 30 running back receiving yards per game. There isn’t much upside for Pollard here even if he gets a boost in playing time.

RB Qadree Ollison, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Ollison found the end zone last week, but it would be tough to roll the dice on a repeat performance. He was the 3^rd option in the run game behind Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner, so you’re just hoping for a goal line carry or 2 if you play him. The Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. I’d look elsewhere if desperate for a running back this week.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ten.): It was nice to see Armstead get a couple targets again in the passing game, but he’s still only seeing a handful of snaps and a few touches per game. There isn’t enough production to consider him unless Fournette misses time.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Gaskin is fighting for scraps in one of the worst offenses in the league. No running back on the team saw more than one carry other than Kalen Ballage despite Ballage being his usual inefficient self. Gaskin has played just 12 snaps in the two weeks he’s been active. Even with Mark Walton being cut from the team, there isn’t a reason to take a flyer on Gaskin.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): The last time we saw Slayton he was roasting the Jets for 10-121-2 on 15 targets. It was an impressive performance to be sure, but it’ll be tough for him to produce anywhere close to that this week. Sterling Shepard is practicing in full and is expected to clear the concussion protocol in time to play this week, and Evan Engram has an outside shot at suiting up as well. Shepard was targeted 9 times in each of the 3 games he played with Daniel Jones, including one that Golden Tate was active for. I still think Slayton is in line for a decent workload (5-7 targets), but the Bears allow the 2^nd-fewest WR PPR points per game and Slayton is a bit overpriced to be a cheap DFS option ($5,300 on DraftKings). You could play Slayton if you’re desperate, but with Shepard back and the tough matchup I’d look for a safer option.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): I’d love to tell you that Brown is a sneaky option this week, but the Titans’ passing game just hasn’t been trustworthy all year and Jacksonville has allowed just one wide receiver to reach 70 yards in their last 4 games. The return of Corey Davis should also take away some of Brown’s target share. If Brown manages to top 50 yards this week it would be a bit of an upset.

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): With N’Keal Harry active for the first time last Sunday, Meyers was relegated to the 5^th WR role for the Pats. He did still play 19 snaps but managed just 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 targets. As Harry gets more integrated into the offense, Meyers is going to find it harder to make a fantasy impact. Meyers would slide into the sleeper category for this week if Dorsett doesn’t play, but it’s still a low upside spot with the Cowboys allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It sounds like Campbell may return from his abdominal injury this week, and he would’ve been an interesting sleeper this week if TY Hilton were still out, but Hilton’s return renders Campbell an afterthought for fantasy purposes this week. Monitor his production this week, but he’ll be hard to actually use in any lineups.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): You might be able to get away with Hockenson as a fill-in tight end this week, but he’s been a disappointment more often than not. Washington was eviscerated by the tight ends of the Jets last week, but prior to last week hadn’t allowed any tight end to reach 60 yards and had only allowed 2 TE scores. Hockenson hasn’t topped 4 catches in any game since week one, and has only reached 50 yards once and has just 1 score since then. There are other tight ends you can find that would be a better option this week.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Moreau continues to get in the end zone every other week, but his usage continues to render him almost unplayable. His snap share has been solid, playing about 40% of the offensive snaps or higher every week, but in the last 4 games he’s totaled just 4-21-2 on 6 targets. If he doesn’t get in the end zone, he’ll give you close to a goose egg, and the Jets have allowed just 2 tight end scores all year.

Rookies on Byes: QB Kyler Murray, ARI, RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, RB Darwin Thompson, KC, WR Andy Isabella, ARI, WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI, WR Bisi Johnson, MIN, WR Mecole Hardman, KC, TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): I know…I feel dirty even considering recommending Haskins in a fantasy lineup, but if there was ever a week for him to come through, this is it. The Lions have given up multiple passing TDs in 6 straight games, and 3+ passing scores in 4 of the last 5. They’ve also given up 280+ passing yards in 5 of them and haven’t picked off a pass since week 6. This could be a get right spot for their defense, or it could be Dwayne Haskins’ first useful fantasy week. Haskins has sneaky upside in 2QB leagues as a desperation streamer.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle): You know you’re grasping at straws a bit if you’re considering the backup running back for the Dolphins for your lineup, but you have to figure the Dolphins are only going to put up with Kalen Ballage running for 2 yards per carry for so long before they decide to see what someone else can do. The player with the best chance to be that ‘someone else’ right now is Laird. Myles Gaskin was a more prolific runner in college and was the only one of the pair that was drafted, but the usage on Sunday made it clear that Laird is more likely to benefit than Gaskin if the Dolphins shift some of the work away from Ballage. He out-snapped Gaskin 16-7, and more importantly was the guy on the field during the hurry-up garbage time offense. He totaled 6 catches for 51, and although 4 of them came on the team’s final drive he showed enough that he should get some extended run this week. He was a prolific pass catcher in college with 96 receptions and 5 receiving TDs in his last 2 seasons at Cal, and he should get a chance to showcase that skill more going forward. With the numerous unavailable running backs this week, Laird is an interesting dart throw if you’re desperate for a fill-in RB in PPR leagues.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): I feel like Diontae should be held out of this week’s game just on principle after he suffered a concussion that left him BLEEDING FROM HIS EAR on Thursday, but it sounds like there is a real chance he clears the protocol in time for the game. If he plays, he has to at least be in consideration for a WR3/flex spot with JuJu Smith-Schuster likely out. The Bengals rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Johnson would be the default number 1 or 2 receiver along with James Washington. Keep a close eye on the injury report, but Johnson is a sneaky streamer if he plays.

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Miller jumped onto the fantasy radar with 7 targets in a game back in week 6 with Breshad Perriman sidelined, but he fell back into obscurity for a few weeks once Perriman returned (just 6 total targets in weeks 8, 9 and 10). In week 11 he resurfaced. Miller was on the field for 51% of the offensive snaps without a Perriman injury and managed to post 4-71 on 6 targets. It may feel like chasing points to consider Miller this week, but he gets to face an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 6^th-most WR PPR points per game and costs just $100 more than the minimum on DraftKings. The Falcons have struggled to defend the slot this year. 3 of the 4 100-yard receiving days they allowed were to players that play significant snaps in the slot (Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett and Nelson Agholor). They also gave up 3-72 to Keke Coutee, 6-69 to Larry Fitzgerald and 8-65-1 to TY Hilton.

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Harry is worth looking at this week if you’re desperate for a WR in deeper leagues, and he’s worth a stash after seeing his usage in his NFL debut. Harry played almost an even split with Mohamed Sanu & Phillip Dorsett behind Julian Edelman and was tied for 3^rd on the team with 4 targets. It’s a really encouraging sign to see him so involved right away, and now Sanu is expected to miss multiple weeks with injury and Dorsett is questionable for week 12 with a concussion. The Cowboys are a tough matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but there should be plenty of opportunity for Harry if Dorsett is out. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he’ll be a fun & inexpensive upside option in DFS tournaments. There will be more favorable matchups ahead to use Harry in later this season if he shows out in his extended opportunity this week (Houston, Kansas City, Cincinnati).

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Keep an eye on Paul Richardson’s status for week 12. With Richardson out last week, Harmon was a near every-down player and found a nice rhythm with Dwayne Haskins. Harmon totaled 5-53 on 6 targets and gets to face a Detroit defense this week that allows the 10^th-most PPR points per game to WRs. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he offers plenty of upside for DFS tournaments if Richardson is out again.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Knox found the end zone for the first time since week 3 last Sunday and played his second highest snap share of the season. The targets left something to be desired, but Knox gets another favorable matchup this week. The tight end position is the best way to attack the Broncos. They’re a top-5 defense against QBs and WRs, and a top-12 defense against RBs. Tight end is the only position they are in the bottom half of the league at defending. Knox makes for a reasonable fill-in this week if you’re struggling for a tight end.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

2 TDs in 21 Seconds

Derrick Henry sure loves to play against the Jaguars. In 8 career games against them, his team is 6-2, and he has 857 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. He especially loves to play against them at home – he has 397 rush yards and 6 TDs in the last 2 Jaguars/Titans games in Nashville. On Sunday, he even was able to score 2 TDs in just a 21 second span, accounting for 100% of the Titans offense on two consecutive drives. With 10:51 left in the 3^rd quarter, the Titans started a drive from their own 26 and Henry promptly took the first snap 74 yards for a score. On the ensuing kickoff, the Jaguars fumbled and the Titans recovered on the 7-yard line. The next snap, Henry took it right in to the end zone, to give him 20.1 fantasy points over the course of 21 seconds of game time – not bad! Hell, the rest of the team got involved in the fun on their very next possession just a couple of minutes later. Ryan Tannehill connected with A.J. Brown on a short pass and Brown did the rest of the work, scoring a 65-yard TD, completing a run by the Titans that saw them score 28 points in just over 6 minutes of game time.

2 of the Top 8 QBs

In our drinkfive.com league, only 2 of the top 8 QBs so far in Week 12 are owned by teams. This is a 10-team league, so admittedly Baker Mayfield should be owned, but I dropped him over a month ago and he’s been a FA ever since. But I digress – I was amazed to find the average ownership of the top 8 QBs to be only 47.5%. This is the kind of stat that you find early in the season while everyone is getting used to a new year, not in Week 12 when we’re all fighting for playoff spots. Leading the way was Ryan Tannehill, the only QB to break 30 points (so far) this week. He had 2 touchdowns through the air and added 2 more on the ground. Following him was Sam Darnold who also had 2 through the air and found the end zone via his feet as well. Raise your hand if you thought Tannehill and Darnold would be the QB1 and QB2 of this week. If your hand is up, you’re a damn liar, or you can see the future.

3 Games Over 150 Yards Receiving

Chris Godwin was the highest scoring positional player (non-QB) of the bunch on Sunday, putting up 184 yards and 2 scores via some of the most impressive catches of the week. Godwin is the only player other than Tannehill to break the 30-point mark in standard scoring, and he’s now got 3 games with at least 150 receiving yards this season. If you combine this with Mike Evans’ 3 games of at least 180 yards this year, you have the first pair of Bucs teammates to break 1000 yards in a season, as well as the first teammates anywhere to each have 3 games of 150+ yards in a season. In a down year at the position, these two have absolutely dominated, constantly remaining in the top 3 – they’re currently WR1 (Godwin) and WR3 (Evans).

104 Receptions in 11 Games

One wide receiver who is not experiencing a down year is Michael Thomas, who already has a stat line that anyone would be proud of for an entire season. He’s currently sitting at 104 receptions, 1,242 yards and 6 TDs, and he still has 5 games to go! The receptions and yards are both leading the NFL, and it’s not really close. He has 23 receptions more than the 2^nd highest total (DeAndre Hopkins) and 171 receiving yards more than Chris Godwin, who comes in 2^nd there. Thomas is still on pace to hit 150 receptions on the season, which is probably a record that can stand for quite some time. He is averaging over 100 catches per year now in his first 4 seasons, and has topped 1130+ yards in each of those seasons as well. We’re watching the very beginning of what can certainly be a hall-of-fame career, and damn is it exciting. I suspect he will be the first WR off the board for years to come in fantasy drafts.

21 Fantasy Points for the D/ST

Congrats to the Washington Redskins for managing to score 19 points and win a game without an offensive or defensive TD. They did manage one score on a kickoff return in a play that looked like it could have been a disaster but turned into a touchdown, all credit to Steven Sims for that run. The Redskins now have 2 wins, all but ensuring the Bengals the first pick in the 2020 draft, up 2 games with just 5 left to play. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are trying to figure out how to win. The team is 3-7-1 this year and they have had a lead in every single game this season. It’s hard to find things to be encouraged by on both teams. The Lions are trotting out Jeff Driskel and Bo Scarbrough, who had an OK day but his fantasy numbers were marred by a fumble. Meanwhile, the Dwayne Haskins finally got a win, but he was too busy celebrating with fans to realize the game hadn’t actually ended and was nowhere to be found to take a knee to actually end it. The reactions at the end of the game to this were basically what I’d expect from a 2-9 team that had to fire their coach this year.