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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 18
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 17
David Biggs's Week 17 Rankings
David Biggs's Week 16 Rankings
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 16
The Rookie Report: Week 16 Starts & Sits
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 15
David Biggs's Week 15 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 15 Starts & Sits
The Rookie Report: Week 14 Starts & Sits
David Biggs's Week 14 Rankings
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 14
The Rookie Report: Week 13 Starts & Sits
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 13
David Biggs's Week 13 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
Statistically (in)Significant: Week 10
16
November

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 10

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

8 Rushing Attempts

 

The best running back in fantasy football received as many carries as the third-string QB slash gadget player on his team. Don’t worry, Alvin Kamara is still the best RB in fantasy, but his 8 carries for 15 yards is kind of funny to look at. He did find the end zone twice on those carries, but his 1.9 yards per carry versus Taysom Hill’s 5.6 yards per carry. Kamara owners are most thankful for the passing game, where he led the team with 7 receptions for 83 yards and another touchdown. This puts Kamara 56.1 fantasy points ahead of all but Dalvin Cook, who plays tonight and is the only other RB with any distance between him and the rest of the league. Cook has his work cut out for him, trying to keep up with Kamara. Kamara put up his third 30+ point performance this week, despite being out-rushed by a gadget QB. Cook has to face a Bears defense that hasn’t allowed 100 rushing yards to an opponent’s entire RB group since week 3.

 

14.5 Fantasy Points

 

Sounds like an OK game, right? What if it was a season total? What if this total was from a player who was drafted in the first round? What if this player, though injured, did manage to play 3 games this season? Well, this would be one of the more epic busts of the year, I suppose. Michael Thomas has a grand total of 18 targets with 10 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns in 3 games this season. Last season Michael Thomas had 300.1 fantasy points, so he’s not even reached 5% of those points so far this year. Let’s compare, for a moment, another first round pick who has played only 3 games. Christian McCaffrey, also facing a terrible disappointment of a season after having missed a majority of the season, has managed to put up 81.9 fantasy points in just 3 appearances, good for the RB31 on the season. He’s at least looking at nearly 20% of his points from last season. Thomas’s outlook for the rest of the season just looks bleak, with Drew Brees looking at a possible multi-week injury. Perhaps the injection of last year’s passing yards leader, Jameis Winston, can get him going again.

 

163 Fantasy Points in 5 Games

 

Kyler Murray has taken over the NFL in the past few weeks. His team now sits atop the toughest division in the league (by tiebreaker), he’s in the MVP conversation now, and he’s far and away the QB1 on the season. Over the past 5 games, Murray has averaged 32.6 points per game and scored at least 1 rushing and 1 passing TD in each game, an NFL record. He’s only thrown 3 interceptions during that stretch, compared to 10 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs. Murray is now 32 points ahead of the pack at the QB position and has already had his bye week. Checking in on the running back, Kyler Murray, he’s currently sitting at 604 rushing yards, good for 8th in the league. He has an average of 6.9 yards per carry, which leads the league and his 10 TDs are 2nd in the league on the ground. His 120.4 points on the ground would make him the RB11 on the season. We all get to watch Kyler on Thursday night in Seattle, so tune in to see what ridiculous shit he can come up with!

 

3-50+ Yard Field Goals

 

Tyler Bass (who?) had a hell of a day for the Bills. He finished the week as the top kicker, netting his owners a cool 19.7 points. Of course, the problem here is that he’s only owned in about 25% of fantasy leagues. Bass went 3 for 3 on Sunday, both in extra points and field goals, from 54, 55, and 58 yards. With this performance, Bass now finds himself on top of the kicker list, and hey, who doesn’t want to be K1? As the weather starts to really turn – we saw at least a couple of games really affected by the weather yesterday – nabbing kickers who will be indoors could be a very smart streaming move. We all also need to stop worrying about a name when we grab kickers. Of the kickers who have made 20 or more field goals this year, the highest ownership rate is Jason Sanders of Miami, only at 68%. Justin Tucker will not save you, or your fantasy team, especially since he’s outdoors in crummy weather cities for all but one game to close out the season.

 

728 Days

 

It’s been basically two full years since the #1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft, Alex Smith, started a game. To celebrate, he went ahead and put up career highs in pass attempts (55), pass completions (38), and passing yards (390). Unfortunately for his Football Team, he was unable to find the end zone, and ultimately, they fell to the Lions after some exciting back-and-forth in the 4th quarter which saw 5 scores between the two teams. Smith looks like he’s set to start the rest of the season in Washington, and in an incredibly down NFC East, they could make the playoffs if they could just win a couple of games. The Eagles are currently in 1st place with only 3 wins on the season. This is the latest into a season that a division winner has had only 3 wins. So, congrats to Alex Smith, for completing his return to the NFL. Now he’s got the first game out of his system, he can focus on the work of actually turning his team around, and with great young players like Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson in a division as historically bad as the NFC East, no Football Team can be counted out.

 

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 11
23
November

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 11

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

0 Targets in Week 11

 

The WR3 this week, (or TE1, depending on your hosting site) had exactly zero targets in the passing game this week but put up 24.42 points. In surely the most controversial issue of the fantasy season, Taysom Hill started at QB this week for the Saints, while retaining WR or TE eligibility on most fantasy platforms. This was surely a triumph of the well prepared because Hill found the end zone twice on the ground and also threw for 223 yards, more than doubling his career passing yards total. He still sits at zero passing TDs, but has 13 career rushing & receiving TDs, already halfway to Drew Brees’s career total. The fantasy football story from this game that has been buried is that Michael Thomas finally had a good game. He broke out for 9 receptions and 104 yards, more than he had combined in his previous three starts in 2020. Going into next week’s much tougher matchup against Denver, it’s anyone’s guess how Taysom Hill will perform, or even what positions he will be eligible to start in. One thing I think we might be able to speculate with some confidence is that Michael Thomas has resumed duties as the WR1 on the New Orleans Saints.

 

25 Fantasy Points Per Game

 

With 9 starts now under his belt, Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert is averaging 25 points per game, which is good for 5th among all QBs in the league. This week he put up his second-highest total of the year, 27.74 points, on the strength of his highest passing yards total of 366 and 3 touchdowns in an easy victory of the Jets. Herbert is now 7th in overall points at the QB position and 5th in points per game, which is a remarkable feat considering he was only inserted as an emergency starter in Week 2, with no apparent plans to make him a starter that early in the season. Now that Joe Burrow is done for the year and we saw Tua Tagovailoa benched against Denver in the 4th quarter, I think it’s safe that say that Justin Herbert has the Offensive Rookie of the Year award all but wrapped up with 6 games still remaining in the season.

 

16 Receptions

 

Keenan Allen caught 16 passes on Sunday, a franchise record for the Chargers, in a game that they had to have to avoid supreme embarrassment. Let’s face it, anyone who loses to the Jets this year will be the laughing stock of the week, so the Chargers did dodge that bullet in a game where they were up 24-6 at one point. That’s very on point for the Chargers this year. But I digress, let’s go back to Keenan Allen. He’s now leading the league with 81 receptions after 10 games. A bit off of Michael Thomas’s record-setting pace last year, but still on pace for 130 on the season and by far the most he’s had in a single season of his career, which was 104 last year. Allen has been a huge part of bringing Justin Herbert along as a rookie, and I don’t think that either player would be in the excellent fantasy position they are in without the other one.

 

3 Out of the Last 4 Weeks

 

Dalvin Cook has now led all running backs in fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 weeks. In Weeks 8 and 9, it was from gaudy totals of 47 and 38 points, but last week he led a rather low scoring group with 22.50 points. Cook has 14 total touchdowns on the season and has scored in all but one game this season. He also exceeded 100 yards from scrimmage for the 6th time this season – his 4th week in a row. Cook is now sitting all alone as the RB1 on the season, having edged out Alvin Kamara by 5 points, though Cook does have one fewer game played on the season, putting his average points per game well ahead of everyone other than Christian McCaffrey. While it’s certainly possible that Cook is passed in points by a player tonight, let’s just suppose that doesn’t happen. That means that while Cook has been on this hot 4 game tear, his team is 3-1, sweeping through the NFC North while dropping a game to the Dallas Cowboys of the embarrassing NFC East. Of course, the Cowboys did get Andy Dalton back who threw 3 touchdowns and saw Ezekiel Elliott crack 100 yards for the first time all season.

 

22.86 Fantasy Points

 

Travis Kelce continued his utterly dominant season this week, catching a wide-open touchdown to seal the victory for the Chiefs late in the 4th quarter last night. Kelce now has 162.76 points on the season, which would make him the WR3 on the season if he played that position. Of course, instead, he’s the TE1, but since the numbers line up so well with Taysom Hill, why not just play with positional eligibly a little bit. Kelce has now finished as the top TE of the week 4 times on the season, and 3 of the last 4 weeks, just like Dalvin Cook. Kelce has the 3rd most receiving yards in the league and leads all tight ends in every statistical category. Kelce is on a pace to have the second-most fantasy points in a season by a TE in NFL history, right on pace with Jimmy Graham’s 2013 season. He’s still got some work to do if he wants to match Rob Gronkowski’s 2011 season, however.

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Dave's Week 10 Rankings
10
November

Dave's Week 10 Rankings

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

How did we get to Week 10 already?! Fantasy football goes by so quickly during the season. With only 8 weeks left this year, it is more important than ever to do your research on player trends, keep on top of the latest news around the NFL, and use rankings (whether your own, FantasyPros ECR, or from a trusted expert) to help with waiver wire selections and fine tuning of your lineup. Good luck this week, let's get to the 'ship!

 

Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with any specific questions or comments that you might have. We are now broadcasting our weekly podcast, The Fantasy Finish Line, LIVE on YouTube every Wednesday at 9pm CT during the regular season. Tune in!

 

2021 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 10
11
November

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 10

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL
OK….so….um…about last week…
 
 
Well, seems like a good time to remind you that in most season long pools, your lowest score of the year is dropped. So, we’ll just use that benefit and move on!
 
 
Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!!
 
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
 
 
14 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – Yes the Jaguars beat Buffalo last week, but do you really expect them to win two in a row just scoring 9 points?
 
13 – DALLAS over Atlanta – When you lose as the top line team, you don’t get to be there the following week…but the Cowboys are playing the Falcons so they should still be pretty high.
 
12 – Buffalo over NEW YORK JETS – The Bills have learned their lesson when playing lower level teams.
 
11 – PITTSBURGH over Detroit – I don’t think the Steelers will need as much help from the refs to pull out the win this week.
 
10 – ARIZONA over Carolina – The second string Cardinals offense won in San Francisco last week, a depleted Panthers team has no chance. 
 
9 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Minnesota – Off-field issues are going to catch up to the Vikings this week. 
 
8  - Tampa Bay over WASHINGTON – I see Tom Brady having another huge game here…and it has nothing to do with the fact that I just traded away Leonard Fournette in one of my fantasy leagues.
 
7 – Baltimore over MIAMI – The Thursday Night primetime lights will remind the country that yes, Miami does still have a team…then the game will start to remind you they’re not good.
 
6 – TENNESSEE over New Orleans – It seems odd to say that the loss of Jameis Winston will cripple his team…but it will.
 
5 – NEW ENGLAND over Cleveland – I have no confidence that the Browns can win two tough road games in a row. 
 
4 – LAS VEGAS over Kansas City – If the Raiders want to be considered a legit AFC West contender, they NEED to win this one. 
 
3 – Los Angeles Rams over SAN FRANCISCO – Yes, the Rams added another fancy piece with OBJ, but will it really make a difference? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE RAMS WILL NOT WIN THEIR DIVISION.
 
2 – DENVER over Philadelphia – If you win in Dallas, then you get to be picked to win at home against a bad Eagles team. 
 
1 – Seattle over GREEN BAY – Russell Wilson is coming back, Aaron Rodgers might not – that’s not a good combination for the Packers. 
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