Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!
Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.
If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.
Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!
Cheers,
Drink Five!
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
36 Fantasy Points, Week 10's Leader
This year's fantasy football juggernaut is perhaps as unexpected as anything in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky (yes, he gets to be called by his full name) tops the Week 10 leader board with 36 points. For the sake of argument, let's assume that future HoF'er Nick Mullens keeps his total under 36 tonight. This is the second time this season that Trubisky is the highest points scorer in a week. He also achieved this back in week 4, when he set the high water mark for any player this season at 43.46 points. Trubisky is the only QB to lead the league in points in a given week twice this season. The QB group that led the league just once is Patrick Mahomes (Wk 7), Drew Brees (Wk 3), Ben Roethlisberger (Wk 2) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Wk 1). That's pretty impressive company to beat, considering that a Bears quarterback and high fantasy ceiling have never been discussed together, ever. The only other player to lead the league in two different weeks in fantasy is James Conner, who did so in weeks 5 and 8.
249 Passing Yards
With just 249 passing yards on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes came one game short of tying Drew Brees' record for consecutive 300-yard passing games. Mahomes' streak ended at 8 games, but don't worry, he's still the league leader for passing yards and touchdowns and has a 9.0 touchdown percentage. His numbers were down this week against the Cardinals, but it didn't take a lot to beat them. His best stat from this game is that he did not throw an interception, which he had done in each of the last 5 weeks. Mahomes is still on track to throw over 5000 yards and could still get to 50 touchdowns at his current pace. This is perhaps the most impressive resume for MVP in a season with a few really top notch contenders. Mahomes will have a chance to separate himself if the Chiefs can beat the Rams this Monday in Mexico City - apparently the only good MNF matchup that we're allowed to have this season. I wonder how the crowd will react to the monstrosity that is the Booger-mobile. This is the last streak I was tracking in 2018, so let me know if there's something else out there I should be watching for.
501 Yards on Offense
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers accumulated a whopping 501 offensive yards against the Redskins on Sunday - a team that normally gives up just 324 yards per game. Given those stats, one would assume that Fitzmagic is back in full force - Ryan Fitzpatrick did have over 400 passing yards for the fourth time this year. Of course, we don't bring up stats like this because things went according to plan. The Bucs managed just 3 points, helped along the way by 4 turnovers (three of them to end long drives) and two missed field goals. Give credit, I guess, to the Washington Redskins, who are now 6-3 and are probably going to be hosting a playoff game. I don't even need to guess - just look at the remaining schedule for the Redskins, which features just two teams that have winning records. A final, weird note about the Redskins is that this team has not experienced a single lead change this year. They have either led all game or trailed after the first score, showing that this team is literally devoid of excitement.
21 TD in 6 Games
I'm willing to bet you haven't heard much about Andrew Luck's health since he attempted 121 passes in just 5 days back at the end of in weeks 4 and 5. There's a good reason, and it's that everything finally seems OK with @CaptAndrewLuck (that twitter feed is a must-follow). Andrew Luck has at least 3 TDs in the last 6 games and 21 total over that period of time. He's the 5th best QB over the last 4 weeks in fantasy and has the Colts on a 3-game winning streak. The Colts are just 4-5, but they have a good ground game, haven't given up a sack in the last 4 games and Luck is on track to throw for the most TDs in his career - all of them apparently going to tight ends. Also, nice game, Eric Ebron and your three TDs. Not a nice game, all of us who switched over to Jack Doyle once he returned from injury. The Colts could sneak into the AFC wildcard picture, or even the division picture, with two games against the Titans left to go.
50% More Offensive Touchdowns
The Bills can use this tag line when advertising their team for the rest of the season. They went into Sunday with just 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games, and increased that total by 50% with an additional 4 against the Jets. Heck, they even added a bonus defensive TD to make it a lucky 13 on the season. This was just the second game this season that the Bills did not have a turnover - the other was their Week 3 shellacking of the Vikings. The Bills also put up 451 yards of offense - their previous high water mark was just 333 - a 35% improvement! The new and improved Matt Barkley led Buffalo Bills (please, please do not give us any more Nathan Peterman) will have a bye this week before playing the Jags in week 12 and oh who cares, it's the Bills and they still stink. This is more of an indictment on the Jets, who have multiple turnovers in 8 of 10 games this year and somehow managed to lose the two games where they did not turn the ball over.
Twenty teams were eliminated last week, this brings our surviving entrants down to 186 with 8 weeks left to go in the
season. Last week we managed to fade the dreaded Thursday night nightmare on Halloween of all nights,
when the 49ers were able to pull out an unnecessarily close victory against the Cardinals 28-25. The
Cardinals jumped out to an early 7-0 lead and had me doubting game manager Garoppolo's ability to
keep up with the potent Cardinal offense. But then the tables turned and the Niners had the 21-7 lead at half,
wrap it up, easy game right? Wrong the Cards rallied back outscoring the Niners 18-7 in the second half
capped by an 88 yard touchdown from Andy Isabella to bring the game within 3. But alas, the Cards
couldn't get a stop and the Niners held on. Seriously, I would not bet against Kyler Murray if they are down
by a score and have the ball last.
Now, on to this week, where I will again be taking the cowards way out by selecting the largest favorite of
the week in the Saints at -13.5 on the road vs the Atlanta Falcons. The announcement that Matt Ryan
would be returning for this game shockingly did not move the line an inch. Bottom line in this one is the
Falcons can not stop anyone, and this week that anyone is Drew Brees and the best team in the NFC.
Could this be Dan Quinn's final coaching performance? Hopefully the Dolphins can do me a favor and
knock off the next biggest favorite Colts at home, which will surely eliminate a large number of
remaining players.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.
33.42 Fantasy Points
Through Sunday, your Week 10 fantasy points leader is, for the first time this season Lamar Jackson. He’s finished in the top 5 a total of 6 weeks out of his 9 games this season, though never as the actual top player. He’s having an amazing season and is clearly one of the candidates for MVP, along with Russell Wilson, who we get to see later on tonight. Jackson had his second game of the season where he threw more touchdowns (3) than incompletions (2). He had a perfect QB rating, also for the second time this season, which is only the second time anyone has done it twice in one season. He added 65 more rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns. With 702 rushing yards so far this season, he’s on pace for 1,248 yards, which will crush Mike Vick’s single season record of 1,039 yards.
0.08 Yards Per Touch
Saquon Barkley was the #1 ADP player across all the major sites back in August, but he’s wound up as one of the more disappointing first round picks, especially after yesterday’s game. On 13 carries, Barkley managed to gain only 1 yard on the ground. 9 of his 18 total touches went for zero or negative yards. He’s having a very disappointing season, though a lot of that can be attributed to his garbage pile team. The Giants lost to the lowly Jets and it marks the low point of their season (so far). Compared to last year, Barkley is averaging a full yard per carry less, one fewer catch per game, and 24 fewer rushing yards per game. He only has 3 TDs on the season compared to 15 last year and having missed 3 games, he’s on pace to finish with numbers well shy of his rookie year. At least the Giants can point to their rookie QB Daniel Jones as a bright spot, even if he’s only won a couple of games. He’s thrown at least 1 TD in every game he’s started, and 4 of them twice.
9.6 Receptions per Game
Michael Thomas is currently leading the league with 86 receptions through 9 games, on pace for 153 on the season. This would match the single season record with an entire game to go. This year, Thomas has 5 games with at least 10 catches, and in every game except for one, he has at least 8 catches. Thomas is his usual PPR machine this year, but he’s also leading the league in yards, with 1027 already. Even in a standard scoring league, Thomas is third in points on the season, with a floor this year of 8.90 points. Thomas now has 1000 yards in each of his first 4 seasons, only the 4th player to ever start his career like that.
446 Passing Yards
On Sunday, Patrick Mahomes returned to the Chiefs lineup after missing just 2 weeks from a dislocated kneecap. His 446 passing yards were the most any QB has thrown for this season, breaking the previous high of 443 yards, also by Mahomes, in Week 2. Mahomes also had a season high 50 passing attempts, and 3 TDs to zero INT, bringing his season-long ratio to 18:1. Mahomes put up a very respectable 29.84 fantasy points, good for the 5th overall player this week. He’s currently at 2,626 yards on the season, good for 5th overall, really good for a guy who has played 1 or 2 fewer games than all the players ahead of him. He’s leading the league in yards per attempt, yards per completion and yards per game. Not a bad follow-up of an MVP season – he would be in the conversation if it wasn’t for lots of other guys having stellar seasons.
49 D/ST Fantasy Points
Well folks, it looks like the AFC North is once again proving to be a tough matchup for anyone who finds themselves thinking there’s easy wins to be had. The Ravens and the Steelers defenses have come alive. The Ravens managed two scores against the hapless Bengals and were the best D/ST replacement for the Patriots that I could ever have hoped for. Now I just need to find a person willing to trade for a D/ST. This is definitely a first world problem, but on to the Steelers. Their trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick seems to be the smartest trade of the entire season. Fitzpatrick has 5 interceptions, 2 TDs and 1 fumble recovery in his 7 games with the Steelers. He’s a huge upgrade to their passing defense, and is a huge reason the Steelers have given up just one double digit game to opposing WRs since Week 2. The Steelers D/ST have double digit points in every game that Fitzpatrick has played with them this year.