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It’s time for the playoff push in fantasy football - the last two weeks of the regular season are upon us. We’ll take a look at Dave’s rankings and compare them to the ECR (expert consensus rankings) on Fantasypros.com. Some players we like more than the crowd, some of them are ranked lower, but I’ll do my best to justify why I like them.

Boston Scott (RB-PHI), Rank 20, ECR 27 (+7) - Scott is in a committee in the Eagles backfield, but he’s been getting a decent share of work. Since being added to the rotation back in Week 6, he’s averaging 10 carries per week and has scored 4 touchdowns. Jordan Howard was also inactive last week due to an injury, and Miles Sanders tweaked his ankle during the week 12 game, so his status needs to be monitored. If Sanders does not go, then Scott’s stock goes up even more. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the second place team isn’t even close. The Jets have given up double digit points 18 times in 11 games this season. For a single week spot start, you could do a lot worse than Boston Scott.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-NE), Rank 25, ECR 28 (+3) - This week, the Patriots will play the Bills on Monday night football. The Bills just got torched by Jonathan Taylor for over 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago. While I’m not saying that there will be anything like a repeat of that, what I am saying is that the tape on how to run on the Bills is out there, and Bill Belichick is the coach who is most likely to be able to repeat that. Stevenson has led the Patriots backfield in carries in 2 of the last 3 weeks, and he’s a good flex play. The Bills are better at defending the pass than the run, so the Patriots will definitely lean on the run game instead of leaning on their rookie QB to defeat this stout defense.

Rex Burkhead (RB-HOU), Rank 30, ECR 33 (+3) - Burkhead is leading the way in the Houston backfield the last two weeks. While that hasn’t translated to a lot of fantasy points, he does have 33 touches over that time, and one thing we like to see from RBs is the opportunity to score points. If you’re getting the ball, you’re more likely to score. Simple as that. Burkhead is a touchdown dependent dart throw this week against the Colts.

Jamaal Williams (RB-DET), Rank 27, ECR 23 (-4) - Williams has moved up the charts due to the likely absence of D’Andre Swift coming up in week 13. This is an area where I disagree with Dave and I would go ahead and start Williams if you’re short at RB or need a flex play. Williams should see plenty of usage - last week he saw 20 touches, and Week 1 with Swift limited, he had 17 touches (8 receptions!). This will be the first full game where Williams has the backfield all to himself, and the Vikings are giving up the 9th most points to opposing RBs, after having just been dominated on the ground last week by the 49ers. 

Matt Breida (RB-BUF), Rank 33, ECR 30 (-3) - Breida has only been used in the last 3 games, but he’s scored in two of them and is averaging 12.07 points per game during that span. He has 1.57 points per touch in these three games, so he’s being very efficient during this time and has earned the right to get more work. I could definitely see his touches per game get into the 12-15 range very soon. This week they play the Patriots, who traditionally focus on shutting down the best weapons on the opposing team. Breida is probably the 4th best weapon the Bills are presenting at the moment, so this could be a sneaky good matchup for him if the primary offensive weapons are not effective. 

CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL), Rank 7, ECR 10 (+3) - Lamb is back in the lineup for this week, now practicing in full after being in the concussion protocol and missing the Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys play on Thursday night (with normal rest!) and will likely be missing Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson. Lamb should be in line for a ton of volume against the Saints, who give up the 5th most points to opposing WRs. Fire up Lamb in all formats as a very solid WR1.

Hunter Renfrow (WR-OAK), Rank 31, ECR 25 (-6) - Here’s a spot where I disagree with Dave. Since the Raiders bye in week 8, Renfrow has led the team in receptions and/or yardage in 3 of 4 games. He’s averaging 6.5 receptions over that span, and has 12.9 points per game during that time. Renfrow’s matchup this week is against the Washington Football Team, who give up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr throws for 300+ yards, so I expect them to air the ball out as much as is reasonable for the rest of the season. That, or we’ll just have to trust in the coin to deliver their victory this week. I like Renfrow as an easy WR3, even better than just a flex option.

Kendrick Bourne (WR-NE), Rank 38, ECR 34 (-4) - Here’s a spot where I suspect I see more value than Dave does. Bourne is certainly boom or bust, but he’s boomed in two of the last three weeks, scoring over 20 points in weeks 10 and 12. Bourne gets a consistent amount of targets, 4-6 each game, and does get a few handoffs occasionally, which helps, but doesn’t exactly provide him with a higher floor. There are no dominant receiving options on the Patriots, so it’s not like Bourne will get crowded out. He has a chance go really go off each game, so treat him as a high risk, high reward flex play, especially in a standard or half PPR format.

Van Jefferson (WR-LAR), Rank 33, ECR 31 (-2) - Van Jefferson has emerged as the #2 option on the Rams, albeit a distant second behind Cooper Kupp. Jefferson seems to only excel when scoring a touchdown, but the opportunities are definitely there. The Rams throw the ball about 37 times per game, and Jefferson is averaging 7.7 targets per game in the last 3 games. Jefferson has developed into a proper downfield threat, even with the addition of Odell Beckham. The Jaguars are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, so it’s a plus matchup for Van as the Rams look to beat up on the Jags after losing to the Packers.

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

33.7 Fantasy Points

 

This year hasn't been a good one for Cam Akers (or the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams), but they certainly took all their frustrations out on the Denver Broncos in a Christmas bashing they won't soon forget. Akers scored 32% of his season total on Sunday, and winning some bold fantasy managers their game. 23 carries, 118 yards, 3 TDs, and another 2 for 29 through the air made Akers the highest scoring fantasy player of the week. His total this week is higher than his two best previous games combined. It took Akers until week 12 to pass 33.7 fantasy points this season. Now, he's averaged 5.2 yards per carry the last 2 games and is lined up for a matchup with the Chargers next week, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing RBs.

 

67% of His Season Points

 

From the "most obscure name I could find" department, I present to you Shane Zylstra, TE on the Detroit Lions. Going into Week 16, Zylstra had 5 receptions on the season. On Saturday, he had another 5 receptions on 6 targets, both stats doubling his season total. He also caught 3 touchdowns, putting up 23.10 points, helping, in all likelihood, zero teams across all of fantasy football. He's rostered in 0% of leagues in Fleaflicker, so if he's actually on someone's team, it's basically a rounding error. Zylstra was one of 4 tight ends to score over 20 points this week. The previous high was only 2 different TEs scoring at least 20 points in the same week.

 

13 Kickers with 10+ Points

 

I haven’t spent a lot of time on kickers this year, usually, I’m either praising huge performances or decrying their use in fantasy football altogether. This week, I just want to say that I’m impressed that there were so many good performances, and so many of them went unnoticed in our drinkfive.com league. Going into the Monday night game, there are 13 kickers who scored 10 or more points in Week 16. Leading the pack was Rams kicker Matt Gay, who was a perfect 9 for 9 on the night. He had 6 extra points and 3 field goals – two of them over 50 yards. 8 other kickers scored at least 15 points – big swings for the fantasy semifinals, though only 2 teams in the drinkfive league had any of those kickers on their roster. Kickers can swing a game, but damn are they still just a crapshoot all the time.

 

21 D/ST Points

 

The Los Angeles Rams really did have a complete game, appearing in every category of the article so far. Well, Tyler Higbee did not get mentioned among the TEs, but he was one of them who scored over 20 points this week. The D/ST put together their best game of the season by far. They had 21 points thanks to 4 INTs, one of them returned 85 yards for a TD and 6 sacks. They crushed their previous season-high, which was just 9 points from way back in weeks 1 & 2. In another example of a positional crapshoot, there were only 1 of the top 8 defenses rostered in the drinkfive league – congrats to Tad for figuring out that the Patriots were still a good start against the Bengals. Or, maybe he just got lucky that Burrow threw a pick-six in what was essentially garbage time.

 

3.4 Fantasy Points

 

To complete my LA Rams theme today, I went digging for a wide receiver to break down, figuring they certainly had someone put up big numbers, with them scoring 51 points total. Page 1, nothing. Page 2, nada. Page 3, come on, I must have missed something. I finally reached page 4 and found Van Jefferson, the WR65 on the week, with a whopping 3.4 fantasy points. Jefferson had 3 receptions on 5 targets, good for 19 yards. I won’t claim to have done all the research, but I cannot think of a time when a team has had more than twice as many points as receiving yards of their leading WR. This game was a proper anomaly.