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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re just a few weeks out from NFL training camp, so that means it’s time once again to turn your attention back to fantasy football (if you’re one of those crazy people that stops thinking about it during the offseason). Today is part one of my 4-part look at the incoming rookie class that I call the “Rookie Fact Sheet”. Today we look at the quarterback class, but I’ll have more coming on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends soon. 

The concept is simple. I’m going to give you some facts related to this year’s quarterback class based on things like college production, draft capital, and what those things have historically meant for NFL production. Then, I’ll tell you how I interpret those facts for 2021 and/or beyond. Since many of you in dynasty leagues have already had your rookie drafts, this series will slant more toward redraft leagues, but there will be some fun dynasty tidbits for you as well. Without further ado, let’s dive in…

FACT: 

Since 1990, only 3 non-FBS (or Division 1-A as it was previously known) QBs have been drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Steve McNair – Four top-5 fantasy seasons, six top-10 seasons, nine top-20 seasons.

Joe Flacco – One top-10 season, three top-15 seasons, eight top-20 seasons.

Carson Wentz – One top-5 season, two top-10 seasons, five seasons as a QB2 or better

What It Means:

Don’t be afraid to draft Trey Lance just because he went to North Dakota State. The league has identified 3 QBs in the last 30 years that played at the FCS level as being good enough to be taken in the first round of the draft, and all 3 turned out to be pretty good. Don’t be afraid of the lower level of competition that he faced. 

FACT: 

Since 2000, only 7 quarterbacks who ran for over 1,000 yards in a college season were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL draft – Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Colin Kaepernick, Deshaun Watson, and Vince Young. 

Five of them have posted a top-10 fantasy season, and Hurts could make it six this season. Watson and Newton each have multiple top-5 seasons, and Lamar Jackson has posted a QB1 season. 

What It Means:

This is another Trey Lance fact. Lance ran for 1,100 yards in 2019 for North Dakota State, and became the 8th QB on this list when he was drafted. I expect that Jimmy Garoppolo will probably open the season as the starting QB for the 49ers, but I don’t think it will take long to turn the page to Lance even if they’re winning games early on. This is a roster that if healthy is likely to win games even if Garoppolo is holding the offense back. The last time Kyle Shanahan had a dynamic runner at QB like this was in 2012 with Washington and RG3. Griffin ended that season as the QB5 with over 800 rushing yards, and Washington finished the year ranked 4th in the league in points and 5th in total yards. If Shanahan thinks Lance can open up this offense the same way that Griffin did back in ’12, he won’t hesitate to make the switch. Lance is a player I would be targeting in the later rounds of 1 QB leagues, and might even be willing to take as a QB2 in superflex and 2QB formats. Just make sure to get a 3rd QB who will open the year as a starter. I expect Lance to be a fringe QB1 as a rookie in weeks where he has the job. 

FACT:

Three quarterbacks other than Justin Fields have posted 40 passing touchdowns and 400 rushing yards in one college season and then been drafted into the NFL.

Deshaun Watson – Three consecutive top-5 fantasy seasons

Kyler Murray – Back-to-back top-10 seasons to start his career, including a top-5 finish in 2020.

Marcus Mariota – Four consecutive QB2 finshes when he was a starter. He didn’t play 16 games in any of those seasons.

What It Means: 

Fields’ ceiling at the NFL level is sky high. I hope we’ve moved past the harebrained idea that Fields is going to be a bust just because he went to Ohio State. Fields is just the third ever 1st-round QB drafted out of Ohio State, and one of them was drafted nearly 40 years ago (Art Schlichter), so if you’re using OSU as a knock against him, you’re basically saying you don’t like him because Dwayne Haskins was a bust. Fields has exactly the kind of fantasy upside you should be chasing in leagues, and he landed in an offense that made Alex Smith into the QB4 in 2017, and Mitch Trubisky into the QB11 in points per game in 2018. Like Trey Lance, he might not open the season as the starter, but he’s going to force Matt Nagy’s hand sooner than later. You should be drafting him as a mid-QB2 in redraft leagues. Like with Lance, just make sure you have a fill-in for the early weeks if it’s superflex. 

FACT: 

Since 2000, nine rookie QBs have finished as the QB14 or better. All nine had at least one wide receiver on the roster who had posted a top-10 fantasy season (non-PPR) prior to that season. 

Among the 5 first-round QBs this season, only Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have a past top-10 WR as a teammate.

What It Means:

If you want to make an upside bet on a rookie QB in redraft leagues this year, Lawrence and Fields are probably the two to target. Neither Trey Lance nor Zach Wilson will have a receiver that has previously posted a top-24 season, and Mac Jones’ top target Nelson Agholor hasn’t finished higher than the WR22. Having a top-10 WR doesn’t automatically mean a QB will be a top finisher (14 of the 32 rookie QBs who started 11+ games and didn’t finish in the top-14 in that span had a previous top-10 WR as a teammate), but since 2000 it has seemingly been a prerequisite to finishing as a QB1 or close to it. If you’re drafting a rookie QB to start for your fantasy team you’re definitely living dangerously, but Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are the best bets to be worthwhile starters. 

FACT:

In his last six seasons as head coach at Ohio State, Urban Meyer’s quarterbacks threw for 38 or more touchdowns in 4 of them.

What It Means: 

Urban Meyer has a reputation of having a run-heavy offensive system, but that system has resulted in high-volume passing touchdown totals in many of Meyer’s most recent seasons as coach. Trevor Lawrence has been kind of overlooked since training camp started as videos of Trey Lance and Justin Fields throwing dimes have popped up on twitter, but there’s a reason why Lawrence was pretty much the consensus QB1 in this class. He’s got plenty of receiving weapons and is almost assured to be the week 1 starter. Lawrence is the safest of the rookie QBs in re-draft. 

FACT:

Mac Jones is the first quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft on a team coached by Bill Belichick.

What It Means:

There isn’t too much to read into this one. Belichick stumbled upon Tom Brady as a 6th round pick in 2000 and hasn’t had much need to pick a QB in the first round since. Jimmy Garoppolo, picked back in 2014, was the only second rounder Belichick had ever picked. The one thing I’ll mention here is that there is a narrative that Bill Belichick won’t play rookies early on, but in reality 14 of the 18 first round picks Belichick has made in his time as Patriots’ head coach have played in at least 12 games as rookies. Only N’Keal Harry and Ben Watson appeared in fewer than 8 games as rookies. The QB position is sometimes viewed differently, but again we have no track record of what Bill will do with a first-round rookie signal-caller because he’s never had one. I expect Cam Newton to open the season as starter, but don’t be surprised if Mac is playing sooner than expected. 

FACT: 

20 Quarterbacks scored 240+ fantasy points in 2020. 

Since 2000, only 2 quarterbacks not drafted in the first round scored 240+ points or more as a rookie: Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, and both scored more than 60 fantasy points rushing the ball.

What It Means:

This one is pretty straightforward. If a quarterback wasn’t drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, he shouldn’t be on your radar for redraft leagues. Only 2 such QBs in the last 2 decades scored enough points as a rookie that they would’ve been a top-20 QB last year. If you’re going to throw a late dart at a guy like this, it should be a guy that has the ability to add points with his legs. Davis Mills seems to have a clear path to win playing time early on as a rookie, but he totaled 86 rushing yards in 14 college games. Kyle Trask, who appears to be in line to back up Tom Brady in Tampa, rushed for 54 yards in 27 college games.

There are 3 QBs drafted after the first round this year that do have running ability. Kellen Mond, Ian Book, and Sam Ehlinger all posted a 500-yard rushing season in college. Book and Ehlinger both appear to be no higher than 3rd on their team depth charts this season (Ehlinger may be 2nd with the Wentz injury, but it seems inevitable that they add a veteran QB). That leaves just Kellen Mond, who would likely step in as the starter if anything were to happen to Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins has missed just one game in the last 6 seasons, and it was a week 17 game where he was rested because the Vikings were locked into their playoff position. Leave Mond to the waiver wire unless an injury does occur, even in 2-QB leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll be back soon with the rookie fact sheets on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, and eventually my rookie rankings for 2021. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if there’s anything you want to yell at me about written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally made it back to the NFL regular season, and I’m excited to be back to look at which rookies can lead your teams to the win column each week. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, welcome! Every week I’ll look at the matchups of all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what you should do with them for your lineups. I’ll group the players into 4 categories – Rookies to Start, Borderline Rookies, Rookies to Sit, and Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options. While those category names are pretty straightforward, don’t take them too literally. You should always read the explanation of why I have a player listed in the category he is and apply it to your league rules and roster. If I list Javonte Williams as a rookie to start, and you drafted him as your 4^th running back, you might still have better options and should leave him sidelined. I also may call a QB borderline specifically in 2-QB formats…that doesn’t mean you should consider him over a top-12 option. I just want to supply some useful info so you can make the best decisions for your own starting lineup each week. Before we get into the Week 1 report, I wanted to share my redraft rookie top-12 for the 2021 season:

1. RB Najee Harris, PIT
2. RB Javonte Williams, DEN
3. TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
4. WR DeVonta Smith, PHI
5. WR Elijah Moore, NYJ
6. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
7. RB Trey Sermon, SF
8. WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA
9. WR Terrace Marshall Jr, CAR
10. QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX
11. QB Zach Wilson, NYJ
12. QB Justin Fields, CHI

Week 1 is always a difficult one to predict for the rookies. Coaches often don’t want to tip their hand as to how they’d like to use their rookies in the preseason, and we wind up trying to read the tea leaves and deciphering the true meaning behind coachspeak to sort things out. Those tea leaves got even harder to read this year with just 3 preseason games instead of 4. That will throw off the normal preseason routines and usage patterns that we’re used to. Even if you think you’ve got a good handle on how a player will be used, you’ll still have to figure out how difficult of a matchup they’re facing. The most objective measure we have for this is how the team fared against the position last year. The only problem with that is these defenses aren’t the same as they were last year. Case in point, the Atlanta Falcons allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers last season than any other defense…but in 2019 they allowed just the 15^th most. Things can change a lot in a year. With all of that in mind, bear with me as I try to sift through what to do with your rookies in week 1.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): If you have Najee on your team, you likely had to select him by the early second round, and you can’t sit him week 1. The Steelers’ offensive line woes have been a hot topic throughout the offseason, but the Bills were just a middling run defense last year and the volume will be there for Najee in week 1. Buffalo ranked 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2020 and allowed the 12^th-most points per game to the position. This probably isn’t going to be a ceiling week for Najee, so he probably isn’t the best DFS target, but he should be a solid RB2 in the opener.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): You didn’t draft Kyle Pitts to sit him. If you have him on your team, he should probably be in the starting lineup this week. The Eagles allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game last season, and while they have upgraded the secondary with the addition of Steven Nelson from the Steelers, this is far from an elite unit. The Falcons are likely to use Pitts all over the formation. He’ll face stiff competition when he lines up outside against Darius Slay and Nelson, but he should have a much bigger advantage when he’s lined up in-line against a safety, or in the slot against 5’9” Avonte Maddox. If Pitts is who we think he is, this is a spot where he should smash.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): The Jets’ rookie signal-caller gets a soft landing in his NFL debut facing off with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers played a conservative defense last season that attempts to limit big plays, but they were picked apart underneath. The Jets' new OC Mike LaFleur brings an efficient system with him from San Francisco that could have a field day against that sort of defense. Carolina allowed the 8^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs and ranked 23^rd in pass defense DVOA despite allowing just 6 pass plays of 40+ yards all season. Phil Snow returns as defensive coordinator, so the scheme should be similar in 2021. Carolina’s defense crumbled down the stretch last season, allowing 3+ passing TDs in 5 of their final 8 games, and they’ll need a big impact from first-round rookie Jaycee Horn if they want to shore that up. The Panthers are favored by 4.5 points in this game, so the game script should keep Wilson throwing. He has a very real chance to make a big splash in week 1. He should be considered a solid QB2 option in the opening week.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 1: @Hou.): I mentioned that Zach Wilson gets a soft landing in his debut, but the number 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence gets an even softer one. The Texans ranked 29^th in the league in pass defense DVOA in 2020 and traded away their top cornerback Bradley Roby this week. Roby was going to be out due to suspension anyway this weekend, but the Texans were absolutely shredded through the air without him last season, giving up an average of 278 passing yards per game and multiple total TDs to the opposing QB in all 6 games. They even allowed Jake Luton to throw for 304 yards and Brandon Allen to throw for 371 with Roby sidelined. The Texans have revamped their roster over the offseason, but it now looks like one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and the defense should be a rag-tag bunch. My biggest concern for Lawrence is that we may see a lot of handoffs to James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. In addition to being awful against the pass last year, the Texans also allowed the most rushing yards, the highest yards per carry average, and the 2nd-most rushing TDs. Those volume concerns are why I view Lawrence as a lower-end QB2 in his NFL debut.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Smith is in line to be the Eagles WR1 in the season opener, and on paper, the matchup looks good. The Falcons allowed more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team last season. They did revamp much of the back end of their defense over the offseason but none of the new additions seem likely to be big difference makers. Fabian Moreau was solid for Washington last season, allowing a passer rating below 80 on passes into his coverage, but that wouldn’t scare me off Smith this week. My bigger concerns are that the two tight ends may be the top two targets in what shapes up as a lower volume passing attack. Smith has a sky-high ceiling in this matchup, but probably shouldn’t be started ahead of any top-24 WRs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Chase’s training camp struggles have been discussed ad nauseam throughout the last month, and while I think they’re being overblown it’s enough to worry me for week 1. I don’t think Chase actually thinks the NFL ball is harder to catch because it’s a little bigger and doesn’t have stripes. I do think there is a little rust still from him not playing football last year, but that will shake off quickly once the games start counting. Chase is still slated to start in an offense that had enough passing volume to get 3 different receivers to 100 targets last season even with QB Joe Burrow missing 6 games. He’s going to see volume, and he opens the season against a Vikings team that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game in 2020. The Vikings did bring in Patrick Peterson to help shore up that pass defense, but it remains to be seen how much the 31-year-old corner has left in the tank. He allowed a passer rating of 98.2 on throws into his coverage last season. I’d fade Chase to a small degree early in the season while he works out those training camp kinks, but he has WR2 upside this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 1: @NE): Waddle enters week 1 with some sneaky upside as Will Fuller finishes serving the last game of his PED suspension. Waddle is listed as a starting receiver for the Dolphins, he plays with a QB that he caught passes from in college, and he faces a Patriots’ defense this week that is missing their #1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England was stingy against receivers in 2020, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but they were just 18^th in pass defense DVOA. Waddle wasn’t a big volume receiver in college. He never topped 45 receptions in a season, but he’s a big-play threat and the Dolphins have emphasized pushing the ball downfield in camp this season. Waddle isn’t an especially safe play this week, but his ceiling looks something like what Marquise Brown did in his NFL debut 2 years ago (4-147-2). A more realistic hope is probably 4-5 catches with one big play sprinkled in. I’d consider him in the WR4 range this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Jones has earned the starting job in New England to open the season, but I wouldn’t be eager to get him into lineups in week 1. I expect the Patriots to play conservatively and lean on the run game, and the Dolphins return 9 out of 11 starters from a defense that allowed the 2^nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the league last year. I don’t expect Mac to have enough passing volume to put up big yardage, and this defense isn’t one that’s likely to give up a lot of TDs. I’d wait on getting Mac into starting lineups.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): This may be a moot point to mention with Jimmy Garoppolo officially named as the week 1 starter on Wednesday, but the 49ers tinkered with a 2-QB approach in the preseason and may utilize that to some degree during the regular season. Don’t be surprised if Lance plays a few series while this game is competitive, and since this game has one of the biggest point spreads of the week at 7.5 there may be some garbage time late. It won’t amount to enough opportunity to make Lance a useful week 1 option, and he may even put a dent into Jimmy G’s upside in this inviting matchup.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Stevenson was one of the league’s breakout performers in the preseason as he piled up 216 yards and 5 touchdowns across 3 games, but he’ll almost certainly open the season playing second fiddle to Damien Harris in this run game. The Dolphins are more vulnerable on the ground than they are through the air, but if you play Stevenson, you’re hoping he steals the goal-line work from Harris and gets into the end zone.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Gainwell enters week 1 of the season without his role clearly defined. The expectation is that he’ll mix in on passing downs as that’s an area he’s specialized in and Miles Sanders has had issues catching the football in practice, but it’s possible we see Boston Scott taking some of that work as well. The Falcons did allow the 9^th-most receptions per game to opposing running backs in 2020, but also the 6^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game. I’d wait a week or two to see how this backfield shakes out before trusting Gainwell in lineups.

RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 1: @Was.): Don’t be fooled by the news that Austin Ekeler is suddenly questionable for Sunday’s game and think that Rountree has some sneaky upside. If Ekeler sits, the Chargers will likely handle the backfield with a committee approach with Justin Jackson leading the way. Washington allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game a season ago and still boasts one of the best front 7’s in the NFL. Don’t fall for the trap here.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): There’s no reason to consider Evans for your lineups or go scoop him off the waiver wire just yet but keep an eye on how the Bengals use him in week 1. The team’s offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said that Evans has “the most natural hands for a running back that I’ve ever been around.” Callahan has been around Gio Bernard, Joe Mixon, Jalen Richard, Doug Martin, and Theo Riddick, among others. Joe Mixon is expected to have a workhorse role, but there is still a chance that Evans is able to carve out a receiving role, so it’s a situation worth monitoring.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Moore draws a good matchup for his NFL debut, but it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll get. The Titans allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game last season but reports throughout camp have made it clear that DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green will be the top 2 targets in this offense, and there’s no guarantee Moore is playing ahead of Christian Kirk in Week 1. No team played more 4-wide receiver sets than the Cardinals, and only the Bills even came close, but that still accounted for just 21% of their offensive snaps. If Moore is behind Kirk, he won’t be on the field nearly enough to help you. Monitor his usage in this one, but I wouldn’t put him in the Week 1 lineup.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): If you drafted Marshall in your fantasy leagues, you may have circled his week 1 matchup with the Jets as a great opportunity to get him in the lineup. The Jets were the worst team in the NFL last season and ranked 28^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be so quick to trust the rookie. He still enters the season 4^th in the target pecking order behind Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson, and this may be a game where they don’t need to throw it a ton. Despite their defensive woes against the pass, the Jets still only allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game. I’m not sure there will be enough passing volume to go around to make Marshall a useful piece in season-long leagues. He does cost the minimum on DraftKings, however, and may be worth a shot in DFS tournaments.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Generally speaking, the Texans are an offense that should be avoided for fantasy purposes, and that’s especially true when you’re talking about players who aren’t even slated to start. Collins has seemingly been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Chris Conley in recent weeks, and the Texans are expected to lean heavily on the running game when they can since they have a plethora of experienced running backs and start Tyrod Taylor at QB. Game script is going to make that hard to do some weeks, but this week against Jacksonville is a game where the Texans may manage to be competitive. The Jaguars are favored by just 3 points. Collins looks like he’ll be the WR3 in a low-volume passing attack in this one. Steer clear.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk.1: vs. SF): ARSB has been a popular name as a fantasy sleeper this year since the Lions appear to be devoid of much WR talent on the roster, but he’s listed as a 3^rd-stringer on the Lions’ most recent unofficial depth chart. There is an opportunity for a Lions’ WR to step up in the opener – the 49ers were just a middling defense against wide receivers last year and may be missing starting CB Emmanuel Mosley on Sunday, and game script is likely to keep the Lions throwing. I just don’t have any confidence that St. Brown is the guy who steps up in this one. I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Eskridge was a fun player to watch during his time at Western Michigan, but he’s probably got work to do to carve out a role with the Seahawks. In 2020, Seattle wide receivers not named DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett combined for 69 targets all year (nice). That works out to a 4.3 per game split between all the other wide receivers. That’s going to have to be significantly different in the new offense under Shane Waldron for Eskridge to find his way to a meaningful rookie role. Waldron spent the past 3 years as the LA Rams passing game coordinator, and in the past two years, the Rams’ WR3 has averaged just over 75 targets. That would at least be a start for Eskridge, but I’d like to see that play out on the field before I insert the rookie into lineups. The Colts were a middling WR defense last year, not a bad one, so this isn’t the week to take a swing on an unknown.

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Atwell was heavily targeted in the preseason, but he managed to turn 29 targets into 18 catches for just 129 yards. His usage made Diontae Johnson look like a downfield threat. I don’t expect Atwell to see a lot of snaps in week one as he’s listed behind both DeSean Jackson and Van Jefferson on the Rams’ depth chart. Even if he does see some time on the field, his preseason usage hints at him only having value in the deepest PPR leagues for now. Keep him parked on the bench this week.

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Smith-Marsette could open the season as the Vikings WR3, but that role on this team isn’t one that’s going to result in useful fantasy production, even with Irv Smith out. Last season the Vikings top two tight ends and their WR3 combined for just 110 targets, with only 30 of them going to WR3 Chad Beebe. Even if all that target share was divvied up evenly between Tyler Conklin and Smith-Marsette, we’re still only talking about less than 3.5 targets per game for each guy. Leave Ihmir on the waiver wire unless he starts to produce.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): Freiermuth is likely going to open the season as the TE2 in Pittsburgh behind Eric Ebron, so he should be avoided in fantasy lineups for week 1. If you play DFS and thought Freiermuth had sneaky upside facing a Bills defense that allowed the 6^th-most TE points per game last season, keep in mind that they were missing Matt Milano for 6 games last season, and they were shredded by tight ends in those 6 games. With Milano on the field, only 1 tight end all year reached 10 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring against the Bills.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 1: @NYG): Williams enters week one as part of what appears to be a 1-2 running back punch to start the season for the Broncos. The expectation is that Melvin Gordon will be the 1, and Javonte the 2, but don’t be surprised if that turns out to be reversed. Gordon played in the final preseason game while Javonte was held out despite not being injured. This usually means the team has big plans for a player and wants to make sure they don’t get hurt in a meaningless game. Gordon did miss time earlier in camp with a groin injury, so there’s a chance he was only playing because he hadn’t gotten any live game reps in the first two preseason contests, but Javonte being held out is certainly a good sign for the rookie. The Broncos want to lean on the run game when they can with game-manager Teddy Bridgewater at QB. They ranked 13^th in the league in rushing attempts last season. They face the Giants in week 1. New York allowed the 14^th-most RB points per game last season – not good, not terrible, but they also lost their run-stopping nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. If Javonte is the leader of this committee, I like his chances to see 15+ touches in week 1 and return RB2 value. He costs the minimum on DraftKings and could be a difference-maker if you have the fortitude to get him in the lineup in season-long leagues this week.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): Sermon may not have taken the starting job right away like some were predicting, but he still has an opportunity for a nice debut. Raheem Mostert will be the starter, but there may be enough to go around for both players to be productive in this game. The 49ers are one of the heaviest favorites of the week, and the Lions ranked 27^th in run defense DVOA en route to allowing the most RB fantasy points per game in the league. San Francisco hasn’t been shy about their desire to run the ball a lot this season, and the Lions aren’t likely to be the team to prevent them from doing that. Sermon should mix in a fair amount as a change of pace back to Mostert and may see some extra work down the stretch if the 49ers get out in front. A finish in the RB3 range would be a successful debut for the rookie.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): With Jamison Crowder still struggling to get himself back from the Covid reserve list, Elijah Moore is in line to start in the slot in week 1, and a big debut could be in the offing. Corey Davis got a lot of attention after he was targeted 10 times in just 13 routes run during the preseason, but Moore is likely to remind us that there’s another pretty good receiver on the Jets on Sunday. The rookie averaged nearly 11 catches per game at Ole Miss last year and will have the most favorable CB matchup in the opener. Davis should have success against heralded rookie Jaycee Horn, but there should be plenty of room for Moore to thrive against a defense that allows a lot of short and intermediate completions. I like Moore to top 75 receiving yards in his debut, and a touchdown would be a nice cherry on top.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Look, I don’t like writing Toney’s name here any more than you like reading it here. The Giants reached for him in the first round of the NFL Draft, and he missed time early in camp and didn’t really stand out until recently. Despite that, the Giants pass-catcher situation for week one is still very much in flux. Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Kyle Rudolph all missed time with injury recently, and the Giants don’t want to let Saquon fully loose in the opener either. Engram has been ruled out for week one, and while Golladay and Rudolph are both set to play it remains to be seen how the targets will shake out. This isn’t an easy matchup. The Broncos ranked 11^th in pass defense DVOA last season, and then went out this offseason and added standout cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and rookie Patrick Surtain II. Toney is still a threat to take any touch to the house. If he gets a handful of catches and breaks one for a long TD, he’s going to be a big value at his minimum price tag on DraftKings. Pay attention to any news about how the Giants intend to use their pass catchers in Week 1 if you’re considering using Toney.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): Brown gets a big opportunity in week 1 after Curtis Samuel pulled up lame with a hamstring issue at practice Wednesday. Brown should slide into a starting spot opposite Terry McLaurin against the Chargers in the opener. The matchup isn’t an ideal one for him. Brown excelled down the field in his college career at North Carolina, averaging 20+ yards per catch in each of his last two college seasons. While that pairs well with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, it doesn’t pair well with the matchup against Los Angeles. Only 5 teams allowed fewer 20+ yard receptions than the Chargers last season. The Chargers did lose starting corner Casey Hayward in free agency, but they also get Derwin James back for 2021 after the standout safety missed all of last season. There are also plenty of mouths to feed in this offense with McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic and Adam Humphries all around as well. It’s still difficult to completely fade Dyami at his minimum price tag on DraftKings given his big-play potential and his gunslinger QB. If you have the roster space he’s worth a stash in season-long leagues on the chance that he breaks out in week 1. Curtis Samuel was moved to the injured reserve on Friday.

That’s all I’ve got for Week 1. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to do a final check before kickoff to be sure you don’t start any inactive players. I’ll be back each week to give you a rookie rundown throughout the season, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the rookies or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was a very eventful one for the rookie crop and was a humbling reminder how hard it can be to predict what to expect in the first game for the fantasy rookies. The two rookies I told you to start last week, Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts, both had the kind of volume you look for from a fantasy starter (17 touches for Harris and 8 targets for Pitts), but neither put up the kind of fantasy performance that you hope for. Both should have better days ahead. All five of the first-round rookie QBs scored more points than Aaron Rodgers in week 1, and Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence each put up over 250 passing yards and multiple scores. 

It was a big debut week for all 3 of the top-10 drafted WRs as well, as each topped 60 yards and found the end zone in their respective openers. All 3 were somewhat risky fantasy plays going into the week, but I also talked about the big upside each possessed in this article last week. My three deep-league sleeper WRs for week 1 (Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown, and Kadarius Toney) all managed to somehow put up negative receiving yards on Sunday, but Rondale Moore had a nice debut and Anthony Schwartz was a big surprise for the Browns with Odell Beckham sidelined. 

One of the biggest rookie storylines of the week was the San Francisco 49ers backfield. Trey Sermon was long expected to be the number 2 back in the Bay behind Raheem Mostert, but he was a surprising healthy scratch in week 1 and got to watch from the sideline as Elijah Mitchell rattled off over 100 yards and a score against the Lions. With Mostert sidelined for the season, I’ll get into what to do with the 49ers backs going forward later in this article.

There are a few rookies that were close to non-factors in week 1 that don’t warrant enough consideration for a full blurb about their week 2 outlook. Those players are: 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Played zero offensive snaps in week 1)

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Zero carries, 2 targets in week 1)

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Maybe number 2 back behind Gibson, but played just 4 offensive snaps)

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Saw 2 carries and 1 target in week 1, now in concussion protocol)

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Played just 2 offensive snaps in week 1)

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Targeted just once in 14 offensive snaps week 1)

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Targeted one time in the 4th quarter of a blowout loss)

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Played just 4 offensive snaps in week 1. Clearly lost WR3 battle with KJ Osborn)

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies to Start: 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Harris’ debut wasn’t quite what fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or second round were hoping for as he totaled fewer than 6 fantasy points against the Bills. On the one hand, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t great and struggled against a talented defense like Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps and handled all the running back touches. That’s the kind of usage you’re looking in a first round fantasy running back. The offensive line should improve with more time playing together, and there will be easier matchups to come, starting as soon as this week with the Raiders. Vegas allowed the 4th-most running back points per game in 2020 and ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In the opener Monday night they let the combination of Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Trenton Cannon put up 98 rushing yards and 2 scores. Najee should be in for a bounce back performance and should be started with confidence.  

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): If you look only at their final fantasy production, you’d probably think Melvin Gordon is still the clear lead back in Denver after the veteran posted 118 scrimmage yards and a touchdown Sunday while the rookie ended up with 41 scoreless yards. If you only look at that production, you’d miss that it was Javonte who handled 56% of the RB rushing attempts, and two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps. Gordon padded his stats with a 70-yard touchdown run but at worst this is a 50-50 timeshare for Javonte. At best, he’s the current 1-A to Gordon’s 1-B…and this week they get to go face the Jaguars. The Jaguars allowed the third-most RB points per game last season and allowed the 3rd-most RB points in week 1 as they were publicly undressed by what should be a very bad Texans team. The Broncos should be able to have their way with the Jags, and I expect a much better showing from Javonte in this one. I’d view him as a low-end RB2 who’s a better option in formats that aren’t full PPR. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): If you just look at the box score from week 1, you can see that DeVonta Smith had a solid NFL debut. If you look deeper at the numbers, there are even more reasons to be excited about what Smith can do this season. The rookie dominated usage in the Eagles’ passing game. Smith ran a route on 95% of the Eagles dropbacks in week 1, had a 23% target share, and a whopping 55% of the team’s air yards. Despite the talk of how involved the Eagles’ tight ends would be this year, this passing game runs through DeVonta Smith. Smith gets a very favorable week 2 matchup. The 49ers have typically been good against wide receivers over the last couple seasons, but they lost their top corner Jason Verrett for the year last week and may not have Emmanuel Moseley back from injury in time for this game. That leaves them with freshly signed Dre Kirkpatrick and Josh Norman (neither of whom were on a team for training camp), 5th-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir (who held up well in week 1 but faced a Lions’ team that is devoid of WR talent), and Dontae Johnson (who was cut for Josh Norman before being later re-signed). No matter who the matchup, I expect Smith to have a notable advantage. He should be fired up as a WR2 this week. 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 2: @TB): I may regret listing Pitts here come Monday, but you simply can’t already be benching this guy after a so-so week 1 performance given what he cost to acquire. This matchup isn’t an exciting one. The Falcons struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright last week against the Eagles, allowing pressure on more than 30% of his dropbacks (the 8th-worst mark in week 1). They should have similar issues with the Bucs in week 2. Philly was 2nd in the league last year in pressure rate as a defense, and the Bucs were 3rd (and returned all 11 starters). That pressure could actually play into Pitts’ hands. His average target depth was just 4.8 yards in the opener, and Ryan may need to find him as an outlet in the short part of the field to beat the pass rush. Pitts did have 8 targets in week 1, tied with Calvin Ridley for the team lead and good for a 24% share. He’s going to be heavily involved. The Bucs are not a dominant defense against tight ends. They allowed the 10th-most points per game to the position a year ago and allowed Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz to combine for 9 catches and 65 yards a week ago. If you drafted Pitts, don’t run away from starting him in this matchup. 

Borderline Rookies: 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): The Jacksonville Jaguars, as a team, had the most embarrassing performance in the NFL in week 1 by getting housed by a Houston Texans team that is expected to be the worst in the NFL. Somehow Trevor Lawrence still finished the week as a QB1. Playing from behind played into his hands in the opener, as he tallied over 330 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He also threw 3 interceptions, but it was an exciting week, nonetheless. On paper, the Denver Broncos should be a tough matchup. PFF graded their secondary as the best in the NFL entering the season, but they let Daniel Jones throw for over 260 yards and a score against them last week. The Broncos did revamp their secondary in the offseason, so you shouldn’t give too much weight to the fact that they allowed the 10th-most QB points per game a season ago, but there seems to be a defensive issue that has carried over. They struggle to prevent QBs from running the ball, especially near the goal-line. Denver allowed the 5th-most QB rushing yards per game last season, and tied for the most QB rushing scores allowed, and then in week one they let Daniel Jones run for 27 yards and a score. We’re yet to see Trevor Lawrence showcase that part of his game, but he has the capability. He rushed for 766 yards and 17 TDs in his last two seasons at Clemson, and he may get a chance to flash those skills again this week. The Jaguars should be playing from behind and throwing again (they’re a 6-point home underdog), and I like Lawrence’s chances of posting multiple total scores and another top-15 QB finish. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Mitchell was certainly the biggest surprise of week one among the rookies, getting the nod as the 49ers RB2 ahead of the higher drafted Trey Sermon, and then putting on a show when his number was called after Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury. Mitchell handled 19 of the 20 running back rushing attempts after Mostert went down and finished the day with a 104-yard performance that included a scintillating 38-yard touchdown run. It was an impressive debut from a player who wasn’t on very many fantasy radars…but will it carry over to week 2? Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained Trey Sermon’s healthy scratch by saying that he just wasn’t one of their top-3 guys out of camp, but I suspect it had something to do with the fact that Sermon doesn’t play special teams. Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty both do. I expect Sermon to be active in week 2, and it remains to be seen which back will post the better fantasy day. Kyle Shanahan has shown a willingness to ride the hot hand in the backfield, regardless of who has it. Since the start of 2020, 6 different running backs have led the team in rushing attempts, with 5 of them handling two-thirds of the HB rushing attempts at least once. Injuries played some part in the musical chairs in this backfield, but this job isn’t going to just be handed to Mitchell. I expect he’ll get first crack to establish the hot hand in week 2 but faces a Philly defense that allowed the 11th-fewest RB points per game in 2020. He’s also unlikely to be very active in the passing game. Mitchell wasn’t targeted once in week 1 and averaged just 1.24 receptions per game over his last 3 college seasons (no more than 1.6 per game in any individual season). I’d shy away from Mitchell in PPR formats and look at him as a risk/reward RB3 option in half- and non-PPR scoring. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 2: @Chi.): The pecking order of the Bengals’ WR group was one of the hottest topics of discussion of the offseason, and for at least week 1 the top option of that group appeared to be the rookie Ja’Marr Chase. Chase led the team in route participation and had the highest percentage of targets per route run. He finished with a 5-101-1 line on 7 targets and clearly still knows how to catch a football even without the white stripes on it. The problem for Chase is that this offense has two other very capable receivers who may have better matchups than he does this week. Chase should do most of his work against 2nd-year pro Jaylon Johnson. Johnson had his struggles as a rookie, allowing nearly 9 yards per target and a 107.5 passer rating into his coverage, but his cohorts in this secondary are worse. Marqui Christian and Kindle Vildor are likely to be overmatched by Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, and I look for Joe Burrow to share a little of the wealth with them this week. Chase has the same kind of upside that he did a week ago, but I’d be a little hesitant to go all-in for this week’s matchup. I view him as a WR3 option for week 2. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Like the other two receivers drafted in the top-10 this year, Waddle’s debut was a rousing success. He managed to get in the end zone and finished as the WR27 for the week with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. Waddle was in a route on 93% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 1, and was targeted on 18% of his routes, but those numbers could both drop with Will Fuller returning from suspension. Waddle spent 75% of his snaps in the slot, but he could leave the field in 2-WR sets with Fuller back. Waddle will match up mostly with Taron Johnson in the slot, who was just an average corner last season, but he allowed just 2 catches on 5 targets into his coverage in week 1 and the Bills allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game in 2020. With slightly reduced usage, I would be less excited to fire up Waddle this week than I am DeVonta or Chase. 

Rookies to Sit: 

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): I was very tempted to list Jones as a sleeper for week 2 but couldn’t bring myself to do it. I just don’t think the Patriots will have to throw enough to make Jones a viable option even in 2 quarterback leagues. The Jets were an awful defense in 2020, allowing the 3rd-most QB points per game, but have just 3 starters that are carry-overs from last year (Quinnen Williams, Bryce Hall, Marcus Maye). I expect them to play better as a unit under the leadership of Robert Saleh, and in week 1 they limited Sam Darnold to just 1 touchdown and a QB17 finish. I’d expect that to be the high end of Jones’ reasonable range of outcomes for week 2 and wouldn’t consider him other than as a low-end QB2 option. 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. NE): Wilson had a shaky debut in week 1, but he still managed to throw for over 250 yards and a pair of TDs en route to finishing as the QB16 for the week. He should face more of an uphill battle in week 2. The Jets’ o-line allowed the highest pressure rate in the league in week one, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, Wilson could be under fire even more often in week 2. He was sacked twice in just 13 snaps after Becton was injured in week 1. The Patriots only sacked Tua twice last week and had just the 20th best pressure rate in the league, but I expect Belichick to have some wrinkles ready for the rookie QB this week. There is a narrative that you shouldn’t start rookie QBs against Belichick, and there’s a reason that narrative exists. There have been 31 rookie QBs to make a start against the Belichick Patriots. 15 of them scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, and only 5 of them made it to 18. The absolute best rookie performance against them in that span was put up by Russell Wilson in 2012. Wilson scored 23.42 fantasy points in that game. That score would’ve been good enough for a finish as the QB12 last week. Again, that’s the BEST rookie QB performance EVER against the Belichick Patriots. Wilson isn’t likely to approach it. 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): The 49ers will likely roll into week 2 with the attitude of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ at the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo played well in week 1 and should again be at the helm of the offense, with a few designed packages and plays for Lance. The Eagles’ defense erased Matt Ryan and the Falcons in week 1, but they were just a middling QB defense a year ago. Lance’s upside is a possible TD again, which isn’t useful in fantasy when 15 quarterbacks topped 20 points in week 1. 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Unless there is a drastic change between now and Sunday, it’ll be Andy Dalton under center for the Bears against the Bengals. You may see Fields mix-in for a few plays again like he did in week 1, but even if he duplicates his performance, one TD with very little other production isn’t going to do you much good in fantasy. If by some chance the Bears made the move to Fields as the starter this week, he’d have sneaky upside as a QB2 against a Bengals’ defense that ranked just 27th in pass defense DVOA in 2020. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Stevenson’s stellar preseason did not carry over into the regular season as his career began with a resounding thud. The rookie back lost a fumble early on and didn’t see the field again as Damien Harris dominated touches. There have been reports that the Patriots could reduce Harris’ role this week after his own late fumble cost the Patriots the game. It remains to be seen whether that could allow Stevenson to work his way back into the mix, or if 2nd-year pro JJ Taylor will get a shot instead. I’d avoid using Stevenson in any lineups until things work themselves out. Even if he does play a bit, he won’t return much value without a TD. 

RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): Roundtree appears to be the primary backup to Austin Ekeler in this offense, but it’s unclear if there’s any value there is in that role after Ekeler handled 60% of all the Chargers running back touches in week 1 despite not seeing a single target. Ekeler handled half of the snaps in short down & distance situations with Roundtree seeing the other half. On passing downs, it was Justin Jackson splitting the work with Ekeler. Roundtree is probably going to see anywhere from 5-8 carries and zero targets most weeks. If he doesn’t score a TD he isn’t going to give you much value in your lineup. 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Carter did at least see a handful of touches in the opener, but his usage wasn’t encouraging. Carter’s value comes in his ability as a receiver, and Ty Johnson was on the field for 80% of the long down & distance situations for the Jets. Carter did handle the other 20%, but he was only on the field for 25% of the team’s total snaps. Until that number comes up, there’s no reason to consider him in your lineups. 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Brown may be the guy who is the most negatively affected by the Ryan Fitzpatrick injury. Brown’s skill set is best utilized on downfield throws, and we’re certainly less likely to see downfield throws from Taylor Heinicke than from FitzMagic. Washington leaned heavily on the running game in the opener. They dialed up a run play on 16 of the 34 plays with Heinicke at QB. I’d look for that to be the strategy going forward. One silver lining is that Terry McLaurin is likely to draw James Bradberry in coverage in week 2. Bradberry’s coverage helped make Courtland Sutton a non-factor in week 1, and he was one of the best coverage corners in the league with a 79.9 coverage grade from PFF in 2020 (7th-best among qualified CBs). If Heinicke shies away from throwing into Bradberry’s coverage, it could mean a few extra looks in Brown’s direction. Unfortunately, I don’t expect them to be the downfield looks that could make him a useful fantasy starter. 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Moore did not make the splash I expected him to in his debut, finishing with 1 catch for negative-3 yards on 4 targets, but he had some opportunities, and his peripheral numbers were encouraging. Moore’s average target depth was 23 yards downfield, and he was in a route on 85% of the Jets’ dropbacks. Corey Davis is going to be the volume receiver in this offense, and they’re clearly going to look to Moore to try and stretch the field. I’m not sure how many opportunities he’ll get to do that this week. The Patriots were in the top-10 at limiting WR fantasy points a year ago and allowed the 5th-fewest in week 1, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, the Jets’ o-line might not hold up long enough to let downfield plays develop. Unless the Jets do a better job of getting Moore involved on quick hitting routes, he could have a quiet day again. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Marshall was involved more than I expected in week 1, playing 53% of the offensive snaps and drawing 6 targets against the Jets. Those targets were less than 9 yards downfield on average, and Marshall only pulled in 3 of them for 26 scoreless yards. Teammate Robby Anderson posted more than double the fantasy points on half as many targets. I don’t expect Marshall to consistently out-target Anderson, but I do expect both guys to be fighting for what’s left over after Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore get their touches. This week the Panthers face a New Orleans defense that stifled the Packers’ high-powered offense in week one. I wouldn’t want to take a chance on Marshall or Anderson having a breakthrough as the Saints add Bradley Roby into the secondary mix. 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Collins had a quiet debut after getting a bit of camp buzz this summer for the Texans. He did run as the WR2 in terms of playing time but was targeted on just 10% of his routes. Both Brandin Cooks and Chris Conley were targeted at higher rates. There should be more volume for the Texans passing attack in week 2. They won’t be dominating the scoreboard in this game like they did against the Jaguars, but I’m not quite ready to believe that Tyrod Taylor will continue to play at the level he did in week 1. The Browns should make it a long day for a Texans’ team with an implied total of less than 18 points. Brandin Cooks is the only piece of this offense to consider in week 2. 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 2: @GB): In a game where Jared Goff threw the ball 57 times, St. Brown was targeted on just 6% of his routes. This passing game is clearly going to run through the running backs and TJ Hockenson, and there were no signs in week 1 that ARSB is standing out over his teammates at wide receiver. Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson, and Quintez Cephus were all targeted at a higher rate than Amon-Ra. Week 1 was a strange game for the Lions, with them falling behind by 28 points and rallying back with some back-ups in the game, so things could change in ARSB’s favor. He still shouldn’t be in your week 2 lineup. 

WR Mike Strachan, IND (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Strachan was involved a bit in the opener, and there has been a lot of buzz about how much the coaching staff loves him, but he still played only 18 snaps, was targeted just twice in week 1, and draws a matchup against a Rams defense that has been among the best in the NFL at limiting WR points since the start of last year. Hard pass. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 2: @Was.): After a lot of talk about Toney potentially getting extra opportunity in week one due to the injuries the Giants’ pass catchers were dealing with, he played just 5 offensive snaps and turned 2 targets into 2 catches and negative-2 yards. Steer clear of Toney until his playing time improves. It’s too early to write him off, but there is a chance he turns into Tavon Austin all over again. Jason Garrett just isn’t a creative enough play-caller to maximize Toney’s talents.  

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Freiermuth had a typical rookie tight end game last week. He played 29 offensive snaps and finished with one catch for 24 yards on one target. Teammate Eric Ebron wasn’t heavily involved either with just 2 targets on 27 snaps. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, were middle of the pack against tight ends last year allowing the 17th most points per game to the position. They limited Mark Andrews to just 3 catches for 20 yards on Monday night. There are better tight end options available than a guy playing half the team snaps in a middling matchup. 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): It’s unlikely Gainwell got through your waivers unclaimed this week, but if he did, he’s worth scooping up. While he’s clearly behind Miles Sanders in the Eagles’ backfield, he got nearly half of the short down & distance snaps and 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. Those are the places where RBs can make their fantasy money (at the goal-line and catching passes in a hurry-up offense). The 49ers are coming off a week where they allowed the Lions’ running backs to haul in an absurd 16 receptions, and they’re banged up on the defensive side of the ball. Gainwell excels as a receiver out of the backfield and has a great chance to be a useful flex option in PPR leagues this week. 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): If you read what I wrote about Elijah Mitchell above, you already know why I have Sermon listed here. For season-long leagues, he’s a guy you can probably acquire on the cheap or possibly scoop off the wire if an impatient manager already dropped him. When he doesn’t have a clear-cut standout RB1, Kyle Shanahan likes to ride the hot hand. I expect Mitchell will be the first man up against the Eagles, but Sermon isn’t going to be a healthy scratch again this week and likely gets a chance if Mitchell struggles. As I mentioned with Mitchell, this isn’t a cake matchup. The Eagles ranked 13th in run defense DVOA last season, so it’s possible no one establishes the hot hand. Sermon is still worth going after as a budget alternative to spending all your free agent budget on Mitchell. There’s a reason the 49ers drafted him in the 3rd round and Mitchell in the 6th.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Moore’s playing time in week one wasn’t quite as extensive as you’d hope for as he played 38% of the team’s offensive snaps, but the ball came his way when he was on the field, and he produced with his opportunities. Moore finished with 4 catches for 68 yards on 5 targets, good for 17 yards per catch despite his average target coming less than 5 yards downfield. Teammate Christian Kirk draws a tough matchup in the slot with Mackensie Alexander this week, and the beauty of the Cardinals’ offense is that they play 4 WRs together with regularity and force the opposing defense into a dime package where their secondary depth is exposed. Moore’s opponent for many of his snaps should be 3rd-year corner Kris Boyd, who allowed a 121.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage last season on 39 targets. DeAndre Hopkins should dominate targets again for the Cardinals, but Moore should have an opportunity to build on what he did in his debut. He’s a sneaky WR3 option in PPR leagues this week, and costs just $4,000 in tournaments on DraftKings. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): Schwartz was thrust into a big role unexpectedly in week one with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, and he made a big impression. Baker Mayfield looked his way downfield on several occasions and he posted a nice day with 69 receiving yards. He finished with an average target depth of just over 25 yards. With Odell already ruled out for week 2, Schwartz could do more of the same. His speed is going to be a matchup nightmare for a Texans secondary that allowed Trevor Lawrence to connect on 5 throws of 20+ yards last week. Not one of Houston’s top-3 corners runs faster than a 4.50 40-yard dash. Schwartz is one of the fastest receivers in the league, running a sub-4.30 at his pro day. The Browns are nearly two-touchdown favorites, so if things go according to plan, they may not be throwing a ton in the second half, but Schwartz has a chance to do damage before things get ugly. There is always a bit of boom-or-bust nature with pure deep threats, but Schwartz has a legit chance to boom and costs just $3,300 on DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Lost Fumbles

I’ve been talking up Trevor Lawrence, so it’s only fair that I talk about when he’s remarkably bad as well. He’s the first player this century to lose 4 fumbles in one game. Those 4 fumbles canceled out Lawrence’s 2 TD passes. He finished the game with 6.66 points – truly not a great sign for what I thought was a step forward in his second year. Lawrence added one pick to his total, for 5 overall turnovers – the most he’s had in a single game in his career. Sometimes I wish that there was still someone on TV to hype the Jaguars so I didn't feel so alone in this. Meanwhile, their opponent the Eagles D/ST has been having a great year – they now have 5 INTs, 5 fumbles recovered, and 16 sacks through just 4 games. They are now the D/ST2 on the season, but have 2 tough matchups leading into their bye week, so – maybe time to try and trade a D/ST? Is that even a thing?

2 Quarterbacks Over 30 Fantasy Points

…And neither of them are owned in the drinkfive.com so-called “Experts League”. Well, let’s not be too tough on everyone, here. Geno Smith threw for 2 TDs and ran in another while accounting for 369 total yards on the day on his way to leading the Seahawks to 48 total points – and they needed nearly every one of them. More on that in a moment. Joining Smith in the 30+ territory was his opponent, Jared Goff. For the second time this year, Goff threw for 4 TDs and he’s now the QB5 on the season. Goff is also tied for the league lead with 11 passing TDs. This is likely a trend that can continue for Goff, considering his team has given up the most points in the league so far this year.

140 Points Scored on the Season

The Detroit Lions are leading the league in scoring, having scored 140 points on the year so far. Unfortunately for them, they have given up 141 points – also the most in the league. This is why they have a very disappointing 1-3 record. The Lions have scored 35 and 45 points in games they lost this season. They are leading the league in passing TDs (tied), rushing yards per attempt, and total yards. Second in the league in rushing TDs, and top 10 in lots of other important offensive milestones. Unfortunately, they are dead last in defense when it comes to points, yards, first downs given up, rushing TDs, and rushing yards per attempt. It’s really an extreme experience being a Lions fan this season.

5 of 5 Field Goals in the Home of the Hotspurs

Kickers haven’t come up much this year so far, and props go to Greg Joseph of the Vikings who completed 5 of his 5 field goal attempts in England on Sunday morning. He kicked for a total of 181 yards, including one with under 30 seconds left to answer Will Lutz’s 60-yard field goal which had tied the game just minutes earlier. The fans in England were treated to a good game, one that had 5 scores in the 4^th quarter alone. Unfortunately for Joseph, he can’t claim he had a perfect day, as he did miss 1 extra point. In fact, each of the top 4 scoring kickers missed one kick this week – 3 of them missing extra points attempts. Perhaps this shows that the NFL moving the extra point back is accomplishing what they wanted. Perhaps this shows that kicking is pretty damn random indeed. Perhaps they don’t even belong in a column about fantasy football. My apologies, it’s getting late.

35.9 Fantasy Points

I tried my best, but I just couldn’t avoid talking about one more Detroit Lion. It’s not as if he doesn’t deserve it. T.J. Hockenson scored 35.9 fantasy points, the most of any TE this season – by more than 10 points. Hockenson had 8 receptions for 179 yards (lead the league in receiving yards) and scored 2 TDs. He even tacked on a 2-point conversion catch just for the cherry on top. This catapulted him all the way to TE3 on the season, even though he had only 19.2 points going into week 4. He has 65% of his points in just one game this year. Sometimes a small sample size is really fun to play with.