Three weeks are in the books, and that means that it's time for us to check out some player trends. After all, in a row does a trend make. Or at least that's what Dave says. Anyways, there's been a ton of points this season, so let's take this time to look at the players who are consistently improving on a weekly basis. These are guys who are both studs that you might expect to see atop the fantasy rankings, and guys who are moving their way up from the depths of the preseason ADP charts.
James Robinson (RB-JAX) – Wk 1 vs IND – 9.5, Wk 2 @ TEN – 19.5, Wk 3 vs MIA – 27.9. Robinson was the lone bright spot on the Jaguars last week. He has trended up for three weeks in a row in lots of categories – total yards, total points, touchdowns scored and even receptions. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, he is in the top 20 for both carries and receptions. He’s the overall RB5 on the season. There’s almost no competition for him at his position on the Jaguars, so Robinson looks like he needs to be an every week starter. Coming up, Jacksonville goes to Cincy and Houston, followed by playing Detroit at home before their bye week. All of these teams are in the top 7 when it comes to giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Now is the time to try and acquire Robinson, as his value is only bound to go up.
Jerick McKinnon (RB-SF) – Wk1 vs ARI – 11.9, Wk 2 @ NYJ – 13.7, Wk 3 @ NYG – 15.2. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in all 3 games so far this season, a great trend for fantasy football. It may even hold for a while considering how banged up the 49ers backfield is. He was used sparingly in the first two weeks, getting only 9 total touches, though he was also used in the return game a bit. With nobody else to take carries from him last week, he had 17 total touches. That’s a usage rate that I expect to continue as long as Coleman and Mostert are sidelined. Even when they come back, it seems as though McKinnon will see some touches, and if his knack for scoring touchdowns continues, it would be silly to keep him on the sidelines. Coming up the 49ers have 3 straight home games against Philly, Miami and the Rams, all of whom are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up points to opposing RBs.
Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) – Wk 1 vs GB – 3.6, Wk 2 @ IND – 5.9, Wk 3 vs TEN – 27. Jefferson was the Vikings 1st round pick this year and he has been thrown right into the offense. He’s increased his receptions, targets and yards each week, topping out last week with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 175 yards. He also found the end zone and his 27 points made him the WR2 on the week. There is a Stefon Diggs sized hole on the Vikings offense, and Jefferson looks like he might fill it very nicely. Coming up are games at Houston and Seattle, followed by Atlanta at home and then the bye week. Houston is halfway respectable against the WR, but Seattle and Atlanta are giving up the 1st and 3rd most points to opposing WRs, respectively. It’s time to get Jefferson on your team and into your lineup.
Keenan Allen (WR-LAC) – Wk 1 @ CIN – 5.7, Wk 2 vs KC – 13.1, Wk 3 vs CAR – 23.7. Allen is known as one of the players with the largest share of his team’s targets on an annual basis. He is currently tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league leading 37 targets. His targets, receptions and yardage have all gone up week to week. Last week he added on a touchdown to make him WR4 on the week and WR12 on the season. Allen catching 13 passes on 19 targets from rookie Justin Herbert is a great sign as well. The distribution of the targets can suddenly shift when a new QB enters the scene, however it looks like Herbert is firmly focused on his top WR now. Upcoming games in Tampa and New Orleans, followed by hosting the Jets will all be tough. Tampa gives up the 12th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and they’re the least stingy of that group. I guess we finally found something that the Jets don’t suck at. Still, Allen is a solid WR1 and needs to be in your lineup every week, regardless of who is at QB for the Chargers.
Often we don't look far enough ahead to be able to make intelligent decisions for our rosters going forward 2, 3, or even more games. Let's play chess here and look into some players that are trending up overall that I think will continue to provide fantasy value deeper into the season. All of these guys are also very obtainable either through the waiver wire or buy buying them from an opponent while they're still cheap!
QB Teddy Bridgewater is the 15th highest scoring QB this season, putting up 92.74 fantasy points over 5 games. Although he started slow (which makes sense after the coaching and player changes that Carolina made over the last year), he has averaged almost 300 passing yards and 2 TDs over the past 2 matchups with Atlanta and Arizona, not including a rushing TD against the Cardinals in Week 4. Bridgewater has the cast to back up his rising numbers with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson at wideout (and Curtis Samuel is one of the best #3 WRs in the league), but one of the biggest indicators that Bridgewater will have continued success is that even without the #1 pick of most fantasy football drafts this season (Christian McCaffrey), the Panthers offense has been able to put up big numbers and continue to utilize fill-in Mike Davis in a similar way. The guy had 25 touches last week including 10 targets which resulted in 9 receptions for 60 yards and a TD. That is what we like to see when looking for a fantasy QB that excels... a pass-catching RB that scores TDs every game. That’s what we have here, folks.
RB Myles Gaskin probably should not be on this list – and we probably shouldn’t be talking about the Dolphins in general this season, right? But hey, here we are. He’s the 27th highest scoring RB this year, with 45.6 fantasy points, 17.60 coming in Week 5’s routing of the 49ers. But Gaskin has not had a game below 7.7 fantasy points this season and is in general still trending up. With a matchup against everyone’s favorite New York Jets this week (currently allowing the 6th most points to RBs with 24.9 per game), he should continue that trend. Admittedly, a lot of Gaskin’s value depends on Fitzpatrick staying under center for as long as possible, but that seems to be the likely situation in Miami for quite a while as they allow Tua Tagovailoa to develop slowly and learn the offense. Gaskin is currently ranked as RB26 by the FantasyPros ECR, but I have him at #22. This team is hot, and you know what they say about irons.
WR Mike Williams is currently the #50 WR overall in Half PPR scoring with 38.9 points. Although only putting up 7 receptions for 100 yards over the first 3 games of the season and going out with a hamstring injury in week 3 against the Panthers, he has stepped up in a big way starting with this most recent week’s performance. In Week 5’s loss to the Saints he caught 5 passes for 109 yards and 2 TDs for a 25.40-point performance. Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Mike! This is the start of a positive trend for Williams which coincides with the rise of the Chargers’ rookie QB, Justin Herbert. Herbert started in Week 2 against the Chiefs due to the botched pain-killing injection before the game and has retained the job ever since. He has played better each subsequent game and is himself an honorable mention for the ‘Boom!’ tag as a QB. Granted, Keenan Allen came out of the game in the 2nd quarter with back spasms, but Herbert is throwing well enough and for enough yards now that he can easily support both receivers in this offense. Williams has a very good chance to get back to his level of success in 2019 (50ish receptions for 1000ish yards). In fact, he already matched the number of TDs (2) just from showing up on Monday Night Football.
TE Austin Hooper is currently ranked TE15 from the FantasyPros ECR, and I think that is a little low considering the trend that I am seeing and how I project him to perform over the next several games. He has scored only 29.8 fantasy points so far in Half PPR which makes him the #22 ranked TE over 5 games, but his targets have increased over the last 3 weeks from 4 to 7 and then to 10. Last week against the Colts, Hooper caught 5 passes for 57 yards. The previous week he also caught 5 passes and scored a TD. With the Browns’ offense stepping up this year and scoring 30 points in 4 straight games for the first time since 1968, it is impossible to ignore that Cleveland may be doing some things right this season. Hooper obviously had a hell of a resume from Atlanta, and the signs of life that we’re seeing now are really encouraging! The next 3 matchups (PIT, CIN, LV) don’t look great on paper, but with all of the threats both on the ground and in the air in Cleveland, Hooper is not attracting much of the secondary so far in 2020. Capitalize on that!