Welcome back to the rookie report! While week 11 saw many of the phenomenal crop of rookie WRs continue their dominance (most notably Mike Evans), it was the rookie runners who surprised this past week. Alfred Blue and Jeremy Hill both topped 150 yards, Tre Mason topped 100, and Isaiah Crowell saw his most extended work of the season and put up 90 total yards. The only way it could have been better would be if some of them found the end zone.
Before we dive into this week’s games, I just want to make a point to remind everyone to check the status of their lineup throughout the week, or at least one final check before the games get started on Sunday. Last week I didn’t even mention Alfred Blue in this column and recommended Terrance West as a starter. By Sunday, Arian Foster was out for the Texans and Crowell was announced as starter for the Browns. Pay attention so you don’t miss the boat when these sorts of things happen. There are a lot of borderline rookies this week, so make sure to pay attention to the details. With that, let’s dive into this week’s rookie matchups…
Rookies to Start:
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 12: @SD): The Rams have found the formula that works for them over the past few weeks, and it includes a lot of Tre Mason. The Rams have won 2 of 3 in a brutal stretch (@SF, @Ari, Den.), and Mason averaged 84 yards from scrimmage in those 3 contests. The Chargers are just a middle of the road run defense right now, so Mason is poised for what should be a solid RB2 day.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): This call hinges entirely on the health of Arian Foster. There’s been talk that Foster is expected to play in week 12, but if he doesn’t, Blue is in line for another big day. Mallett’s willingness to take shots downfield opens up some room to run, and the Bengals already allow the 6th most RB points in the league. If Foster does suit up, you’d probably want to keep Blue on the pine. The Texans haven’t really eased Foster’s workload if he plays, even when nicked up.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Tell me one thing that you’ve seen from the Chicago defense that makes you think they can stop Mike Evans. Go ahead. I’ll wait. The truth is, they haven’t done anything to show that, and Evans has at least 7-100-1 in each of his past 3 games, and while he’s not a lock to hit those marks again this week, the upside is just too immense to sit him.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys’ defense has been really good against opposing WRs, but it’s been more of a product of their run-first offense and high time of possession. They don’t have anyone who can cover OBJ, and as long as the G-Men can keep the ‘Boys from from holding the ball for 40 minutes, OBJ should be a safe WR2 yet again.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): The matchup isn’t quite as good as you’d think, but J-Matt will continue to be a safe WR3 as long as Sanchez is under center. He’s topped 100 yards in each of Sanchize’s 2 starts and has 3 TDs to go with those yards. Expect the good times to keep rolling.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Mett’s going to continue to suffer through some rookie growing pains, but his big arm and porous Philly D should make him an upside QB2 option this week. The Eagles have allowed 287 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. If Mett approaches those stats, He’d be a borderline QB1.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ind.): Bortles has had an extra week to get ready for the Colts, and their defense isn’t imposing (10th most QB points per game allowed), but he’s still no better than a QB2 option without Allen Robinson. He’s been too turnover prone to trust as a number 1, even with decent matchups.
RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 12: @Atl.): The Browns’ backfield situation got a little less crowded this week when Ben Tate was waived by the team, but there still isn’t a ton of clarity as to who the starter will be. The plan seems to be to watch and see who practices best and let them start each week. Crowell is the more talented back, but until Sunday we probably won’t know for sure which guy will get the nod. Whichever back starts will be worth a start on your fantasy squad. The Falcons allow the 2nd most fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs, and Josh Gordon’s return should keep them from stacking the box. I’d expect Crowell to start, but check on Sunday. The back that doesn’t start will be a dicey flex play at best.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 12: @Hou.): Gio should be back this week, but Hill has undoubtedly earned a bigger role in the offense going forward. His carries will take a hit this week, which makes him more of a flex option than a safe starter, but if he gets a hot hand the Bengals know they can ride him. Bengals' beat writers expect Hill to continue to see the most carries on the team for the immediate future, but there’s a lot of volatility with Gio back in the mix.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. GB): I’d expect Ben Tate to need at least a week to get up to speed on the playbook and be a part of the offense, so McKinnon remains the best bet to see lead back carries for the Vikes. Without a bunch of byes this week, he’s just a borderline option. The game flow is likely to keep him from piling up carries, and he still hasn’t scored his first TD, but his workload keeps him in the flex mix.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Sankey’s role has stabilized over the past few weeks, even as his yards per carry have dipped a bit. He finally scored his 2nd TD of the season last week, but he’ll likely need another TD this week to be considered a successful flex play. I would expect over 60 total yards against a suspect Philly run defense.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): The Buffalo snow storm couldn’t have come at a worse time for Watkins. He’s coming off back-to-back down games, and this week gets to do battle with the Jets’ awful secondary, which he torched for 3-157-1 the last time he faced them. If weather isn’t a factor, Watkins would be a safe WR2. If things aren’t totally cleaned up by Sunday, it could be a run-heavy football game that will make it really tough for Watkins to blow up the way he could against New York. Pay attention to the field conditions on Sunday.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 12: @Sea.): Larry Fitzgerald is fighting through an MCL sprain, and although he plans to play through it, he will undoubtedly be limited. The Seahawks defense is outstanding against WRs, but the small, quick guys like Brown are the ones that give them trouble. Stanton clearly likes him. Until this past week, every Stanton TD pass was to Brown and he hit him 5 times in the game against the Lions. Expect 4-5 catches and an ok shot at a TD for Brown this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 12: @Den.): Landry is still just fodder for PPR leagues, but as usual he’s in the conversation for WR3 for those leagues. Denver should be playing angry after losing to the Rams, and they won’t take their foot off the gas pedal if they get ahead. That should keep the Dolphins throwing, and should help Landry to pull in at least 5 receptions. He’s more of a WR4 in standard leagues.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ind.): Allen Robinson is done for the year, and it was announced this week that Hurns will start with Marqise Lee playing in 3-WR sets. Hurns has put up some blowup games with other Jaguar receivers sidelined, and there’s a chance he does it again this week. He’s very much a boom-or-bust option with Cecil Shorts likely to see a lot more volume, but Hurns’s deep threat skills give him some appeal as a WR3. Lee isn’t worth a play.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): Adams appeared to be gaining consistency headed into the Packers’ bye week, but he has just 3 catches for 23 yards and a TD in the 2 games since. Aaron Rodgers said he expected Adams to have some chances going into the Philly game, but it didn’t really play out that way. You’d have to be pretty ballsy to play him, but Adams still has some boom-or-bust WR3 appeal. You just get the feeling that Rodgers has to start looking his way sooner or later.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Seferian-Jenkins is an excellent streaming option this week if you’re missing Dwayne Allen, Julius Thomas, Heath Miller or Greg Olsen. The Bears give up a league-worst 12 points per game to opposing tight ends, and ASJ plays on just about every snap for the Bucs. He disappointed last week against the ‘Skins, but the Bucs should be throwing a bunch to keep pace with the Bears’ offense. He’s a low end TE1 option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. GB): Teddy’s likely to be throwing a bunch, but he still has a bit of a low ceiling. He still hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in one game, and although they should be playing from behind, you can’t have any confidence that he’ll do so this week. He’s a dart throw low-end QB2 at best.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 12: vs. KC): The Chiefs’ defense has been stingy during their current 5-game win streak, and there’s no reason to expect that to stop against the winless Raiders. KC has allowed the fewest pass yards per game in the league. Carr isn’t a great option in good matchups. This is a really bad one. The KC defense is an ideal streaming play if they’re available.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 12: @NO): The 49ers and Bengals showed over the past two weeks that the way to win in the Superdome is to run the ball down the Saints’ throats, but there’s no way to know if it’ll be ‘Zo or Pierce who will see primary backup work behind Justin Forsett. Taliaferro is only worth considering for a flex spot if you know he’ll get the number 2 RB work for Baltimore.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 12: vs. StL.): With Ryan Mathews back, Oliver still saw the same 13 carries he handled in the previous 2 contests, but he just hasn’t been doing much with those carries lately. The Rams’ D is stingy vs. running backs, so I’d keep Oliver benched this week. There isn’t enough upside for the risk.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): The ‘Skins do defend the run effectively, and the 49ers have still been using a lot more Gore than Hyde. You can do better than Carlos this week. At best, he’s a roll of the dice for a TD.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): This is an easy call, but I just wanted to point out that with Jennings back from injury, Williams saw just 3 touches for 6 total yards. Don’t even consider him.
WR Paul Richardson, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): There are no changes for Richardson’s outlook this week. He just won’t see enough volume to make an impact, and he should see a lot of Antonio Cromartie this week. It’s just not a good situation for him.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Buf.): Amaro had a decent number of targets come his way in his last game, but he has just 2 catches for 6 yards and a TD in Vick’s 2 starts. Even with TE being incredibly shallow this year, I wouldn’t bank on much from Amaro this week.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 12: @NE): The matchup is decent with the Pats allowing 9 points per game to opposing TEs, but the Lions have 3 capable tight ends. Even if the Pats are able to slow down Megatron, I haven’t seen anything that makes me think Ebron will pick up much of that slack. Don’t roll the dice here.
Rookies on Byes: WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR, WR Martavis Bryant, PIT
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): He hasn’t overwhelmed since returning from injured reserve, but he seems to have taken the lead back role from Bobby Rainey. The Bucs want to see what they have in Sims, and the Bears’ D is certainly beatable. Sims should be a dart throw flex option in deeper leagues.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Ball and Hillman are both out for the next couple of weeks. C.J. Anderson undoubtedly has the lead back role going in, but Thompson is still capable of vulturing a TD or 2. He will at the very least see change of pace work.
WR Cody Latimer, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): RB isn’t the only position where the Broncos are banged up. Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both are questionable for next week, and if one or both don’t play, I think this is the week Denver finally unleashes Latimer. If he gets his chance, he could really benefit from Brent Grimes playing on Demaryius Thomas. It’ll be hard to pull the trigger without more official news from the Broncos about his role, but his talent is real and his time may be coming.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): With Bradshaw out and Allen banged up, Colts may look for a spark from Moncrief. We saw in the first meeting with Jacksonville that the Colts won’t let up when they get a lead, and I could see Moncrief getting some extra snaps. He did catch 4 balls for 55 yards in garbage time in the first meeting, and a similar stat line this time wouldn’t shock me at all.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you win this week. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Bye weeks are over, so the decisions get tougher this week. It doesn’t make it any easier when you take into account that this is the final regular season week in most leagues, and the choices could be critical if your playoff spot is in jeopardy. Even if you’re not in the playoff hunt, play it out and try and take some pleasure in spoiling someone else’s hopes or seeding. By now we’ve got a pretty good idea of who most of the rookies are, but you know NFL football is never predictable. Let’s take a look at the rookie matchups for week 13:
Rookies to Start:
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 13: @TB): The return of Giovani Bernard brought an even split of the backfield touches for the Cincinnati Bengals, but Hill was clearly the superior back and should continue to be. The even split is still more work than Hill was seeing before Gio was hurt, and the rookie should be a high-end RB2 in a great matchup against the Bucs. He’s a great bet for a TD.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 13: vs. Oak.): Mason finally gets a plus matchup after averaging 85 total yards per game over a brutal 4-game stretch of the schedule (@SF, @Ari, vs. Den, @SD). With the cake matchup, Mason is a really solid bet for triple digit yards, and is a safe RB2 this week.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 13: @Jax.): I almost feel bad for the Jaguars corners who have to cover Odell Beckham. They don’t have much of a chance, and it won’t be pretty. OBJ is a borderline WR1 this week.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 13: @Min.): KB has struggled with consistency and drops throughout his rookie season, and yet he still has been held under 9 points in standard leagues just 3 times in 11 games. He has 8 TDs on the year, and the Vikings defense isn’t anything to write home about. Benjamin should be a safe WR2 this week.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Evans will face the toughest defense against WRs that he’s seen in some time, but he’s been pretty much matchup-proof. He’s got at least 1 TD in 6 of his last 7 games (8 total in that stretch), and should be a borderline WR2/3 with a bunch of upside.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Matthews continued to be solid with Sanchez at QB, tallying a 6-77 line last week. It was the first time all year that J-Matt played more snaps than Riley Cooper. It’s a very positive sign for a rookie who has been coming on very strong. He should be a solid WR2 in what figures to be a shootout on Turkey Day.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Mettenberger is a fun 2QB league streamer right now. His completion percentage and W-L record haven’t been great, but he’s been willing to let loose and wing it downfield. Mett has thrown for 260+ and 2 TDs in 3 of his 4 starts, and put up 299 yards, 2 scores and one INT in the first meeting with Houston. He’s an upside QB2 this week.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): The matchup is a tough one for Crow, but he has the talent to succeed in it. It appears he’s the lead back in the Browns’ committee even though West saw more carries in week 12. Crowell has shown a nose for the end zone, and is low-end RB2 option with substantial upside if he gets the start.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Car.): He’s got to be due for a TD, right? I want to say yes, but who knows. He’s got zero on the season so far. He should still be good for the usual 15-20 touches, and Carolina allows almost 20 RB fantasy points per game. The upside is there, but so is the risk. He’s a boom or bust RB2/flex option.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): The Titans’ run D has been awful, allowing the most RB fantasy points in the league to date, but Arian Foster might be back for this one. After last week’s struggles against the Bengals, Blue’s 150-yard day in week 11 seems like an aberration. Without Foster, there’s plenty of flex appeal in the plus matchup, but I wouldn’t want to play him if Foster is a go.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Sankey’s production remains lackluster, but the workload should be pretty solid once again. I wouldn’t play him over McKinnon, Crowell, or Blue (w/o Arian), but he’s got some low-end flex appeal for 12-team leagues. He’s had a reasonable floor, but not much of a ceiling.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 13: @Atl.): I’m tempted to list Brown as a ‘Rookie to Start’ this week with a great matchup and no Larry Fitzgerald. There’s still a decent amount of risk with Drew Stanton under center, but the two have had a decent connection thus far. Brown has a ton of upside this week and could pay off big as a WR3.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Landry should be safely started as a WR3 in PPR leagues this week. The Jets are a total mess right now. Their biggest weakness is the secondary, and Tannehill is doing whatever he wants in the short passing game where Landry thrives. The rookie’s yardage numbers leave something to be desired in standard leagues, where he’s more WR4 with upside than WR3, but he’s averaging 6-49-1 over his past 4 games.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Bills’ offense was in rhythm on Monday night against the Jets’ dumpster fire of a secondary, but Sammy has very little to do with t. He’s been really struggling since coming back from a groin injury and he should be shadowed by Joe Haden this week. He’s just a WR3 with upside this week.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. NO): We’ve finally seen the floor on Martavis, who bottomed out at 2 catches for 11 yards against the Titans in week 11 on 5 targets. The upside is real, and he could very possibly come up with 2 TDs this week, but he still is a limited snap player who carries some week-to-week risk. Fire him up if you need the upside and can live with the risk.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): The G-Men defense is trending in the wrong direction since the Prince Amukamara injury, giving up 4 TD tosses to Tony Romo last week, but Bortles has been awful since the Allen Robinson injury. He’s completed under 60% of his passes in each of the last 2 ball games against pretty average defenses in Dallas and Indy, and he had a 0:2 TD-INT ratio in each game. He should be better than that this week, but probably not a lot better. Not worth a 2-QB league start.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 13: @StL.): Despite finally breaking into the win column last week, Carr remains a poor option for 2-QB leagues. He’s topped 200 passing yards in just 3 of his 11 starts and has averaged just 1 TD per game since his blowup 4TD game against the Chargers in week 6. Keep him benched against the suddenly dangerous Rams’ defense.
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Car.): The matchup is good for Teddy, and he did just have his first 2TD game of the season, but overall Teddy has struggled mightily. He’s thrown for just 368 yards, 3 TDs and 2 picks in his past 2 games. You can do better even if you can start 2 quarterbacks.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): West will get some work (he actually had more carries than Crowell last week), but unlike Crowell, he’s not a very good bet in tough matchups like the one the Bills present. If he somehow were to get the nod as the starter, it would improve his outlook a bit, but signs point to it being Crowell.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Doug Martin’s return muddled the Bucs’ backfield situation much more than expected. It was believed the Bucs had turned the page on Martin, but he got the start last week and led the Bucs’ running backs in touches. Add in the fact that the Bengals’ D has stiffened quite a bit over the past couple weeks, and it’s hard to come up with a reason to play Sims this week.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): It’ll be all C.J. Anderson this week in the Denver backfield. Thompson saw just 5 touches last week, and he would need a lot more than that against the Chiefs to be useful.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. SD): The matchup isn’t great, and Pierce has been running as the clear number 2 back in Baltimore lately. ‘Zo has a better chance of giving you a goose egg than he does of clearing 5 points.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Lee finally showed some of that potential he consistently flashed in his USC days in week 12, but he still played just 65% of the offensive snaps. With a limited role in an ineffective offense, Lee will have to show me more before I trust him in any of my fantasy lineups.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Needless to say, week 12 wasn’t a banner week for the Jaguars’ passing game. Lee had an ok game, but no other receiver did. Hurns has had 2 blowup games this season and has a starting spot for the moment, but he has had just 1 catch in each of the last 2 contests. There’s no reason to trust him this week.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Despite a decent matchup, Seferian-Jenkins looks like a longshot to suit up this week. Even if he plays, he’s been fairly unproductive despite ample opportunity for most of the season, and wouldn’t be an especially enticing option this week.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Mia.): The Miami D is elite vs. TEs, and the Jets’ offense is a dumpster fire. Add in that Amaro still hasn’t been cleared after a week 12 concussion, and you can’t feel good relying on Amaro in any format.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Tom Savage, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Savage gets mentioned only because of Ryan Mallett’s season-ending injury. Signs point to Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the nod, but if Fitzmagic gets hurt or the Texans fall out of playoff contention, Savage would likely see some action. He could be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 13: @Jax.): After barely playing in week 11, Williams was back to getting some change-of-pace and goal line work in week 12, putting up 35 yards and a TD on 10 carries. He’s a good bet for another TD this week, and could see some extended carries if the Giants get up by a few scores. He’s a roll of the dice flex option in deep leagues.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): This is no more than a hunch, but the Seattle run defense isn’t the same on the road, and the 49ers would be wise to try to win this game on the ground and out-physical the ‘Hawks. That could mean extended run for Hyde, and would make him a better play than usual.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 13: vs. NE): There’s not a ton of reason for confidence with DA’s recent performances, but the Pats do a great job of taking away a team’s best weapons, and for Green Bay that’s Jordy and Cobb. Adams should see some extra looks, so he’s a slightly better option than his usual WR4 dart throw outlook.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): After scoring just 20 & 23 points in their past 2 games, this sets up as an opportunity for the Colts’ offense to get back on track. Dwayne Allen is still nicked up, and Moncrief finally played more snaps than Nicks last week. There’s a ton of upside here down the stretch if he can fully supplant the washed up Hakeem. He’s a guy to grab in dynasty leagues if for some reason he’s available. Nicks and Wayne both figure to be gone next year. For this week, 60 yards and a TD aren’t out of the question if his snaps continue to rise a little.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Ebron had pretty much his worst day as a pro last Sunday, missing one opportunity after another to make plays. He’ll be eager to bounce back this week in front of the home Thanksgiving Day crowd, and the Bears allow more TE points than anyone in the league. I expect a much better showing from the inconsistent rookie.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Remember to check on your players before Sunday, and make sure you know which of your guys are involved in Thursday games this week. You don’t want to wait to set your lineup only to find out you still had Theo Riddick in the lineup when you would have pulled him if you checked. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Have a great Thanksgiving!