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We're through 3 weeks and the Saints now demand to be considered a contender. In Tampa, the Fitzmagic gets intercepted by the Steelers. Patrick Mahomes is still our MVP and is the Rams/Vikings going to be the best Thursday night game ever?

Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line, 9/26/18: Week 4, Saints on the March

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Whelp, just sat down Thursday morning to look over the slate of games coming up this week and holy
shit! I need to pick the Panthers who play tonight! Now, I generally try to avoid the Thursday night games
because they have proven to be quite chaotic, but I liked the way the Panthers played the Rams last week
and think that defense should have a field day with Jameis Winston in their house. Jameis must have wax
in his ears, because he has not heard the whispers from Bruce Arians as was apparent from his 3
interception, 55% completion percentage performance against the Niners.

Week 1 didn't really have any big upsets, so only 152 of the original 1499 entrants were taken down.
Shockingly, the biggest party pooper was the Cleveland shit Browns, that had 77 people drinking the
kool-aid, followed by 25 lost to the Bears opening night. Predictably the majority of the picks went to the
two biggest home favorites Seattle and Philadelphia. (apparently they all read this column)

The lock pick this week is the Patriots favored by 19 against the tanking Dolphins. I used them for one of
my picks and it just feels dirty. I am curious to see if they are the top pick this week as per usual with the
largest favorite or if people will think that is a waste of the Patriots to pick against Miami.

Welcome to this special DFS focused edition of the Rookie Report! I’ll have the normal Rookie Report out later this week, but this week’s Thursday night game doesn’t have any rookies you should be considering for your season-long lineup, and probably shouldn’t consider for any larger slate DFS tournaments either. With that in mind I wanted to do something a little special this week and give you a little intel on each of the rookies suiting up for the Giants and Eagles in case you’re playing the Thursday night showdown DFS slate. The prices are pretty low on most of these guys, so if you find the right one to play it can give you extra cap space to pay up for the higher priced players to go with them. Here is a rundown of each rookie playing Thursday night listed in order by their DraftKings price tag for Thursday night:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (DraftKings Price: $6,000): The Eagles have started to make a point to get Hurts more involved with a handful of gadget plays each week, averaging about 4 snaps per game over the last 5 weeks. Given his explosive athleticism, he can turn just a few snaps into a handful of fantasy points on the right night, but he’s not priced like a player who would only play a handful of snaps. H’s priced like a quarterback. About the only real chance he has of returning value at his price tag would be if Carson Wentz gets hurt or benched early on. I wouldn’t count on either of those happening. Even if Hurts does get extended playing time, the Giants surprisingly allow the 5^th-fewest QB points per game.

Verdict: Nowhere near worth the price tag

WR John Hightower, PHI (DraftKings Price: $1,200): Hightower has played 60% of Philly’s offensive snaps in each of the last 4 weeks, and finally hit on a big play last week with a 50-yard catch against the Ravens. The expected return of DeSean Jackson is going to put a dent in his playing time this week, but I don’t expect DeSean to walk into a full-time role in his first game back. Philly may ease him back in on some sort of pitch count. Hightower’s aDOT of 21.7 for the year means the team likes to target him deep. He could produce a useful night on just a couple catches. The Giants don’t give up a ton of big passing plays, allowing just 1 completion of 40+ yards on the year, and the 8^th-fewest 20+ yard completions. Hightower obviously has a low floor, but probably the highest ceiling of any of the rookies playing on Thursday.

Verdict: Boom-or bust dart throw that I’d like a bit more if his price was below $1,000

WR Austin Mack, NYG (DraftKings Price: $400): Mack seemingly came out of nowhere last week to play 75% of the offensive snaps against Washington – 6 more snaps than Golden Tate played. He was targeted only once though, and he turned that target into just 1 yard. Washington has been one of the tougher pass defenses in the league, but that still doesn’t exactly instill confidence in Mack going forward. The Eagles are a much better matchup. They rank 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers (half-PPR). Mack seems to have surpassed Damion Ratley and CJ Board on the depth chart and will serve as a starter this week assuming Sterling Shepard doesn’t return from IR. Darius Slay is likely to shadow Darius Slayton in this game, so that should open up some opportunities for Golden Tate and Mack. Mack wasn’t very productive at Ohio State, never reaching 400 yards in a season in college, but you could argue it was a crowded WR group. He’s a big bodied WR that profiles as more of a possession receiver than deep threat, so he’ll need to see a bit of volume to put up many fantasy points. That volume seems unlikely to come.

Verdict: Low ceiling dart throw who could fall into a handful of points

RB Jason Huntley, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With the absence of Miles Sanders this week, there should be some available running back touches for the Eagles. Boston Scott will certainly assume the lead back duties. When Sanders was out in week 1, Scott and Corey Clement split the snaps 38 to 25, but at that point Huntley had only been on the team for a week. He should be more up to speed now. Clement still served as the number two back last week after Sanders went down, but knowing ahead of time that Miles won’t play could mean they make a point to get Huntley into the rotation. Doug Pederson was ecstatic to claim Huntley off waivers from Detroit before the season started, and this may be the best opportunity he’s had to get him on the field. The Giants rank 15^th in run defense DVOA, and allow the 13^th-most RB points per game. Huntley is an explosive speed back (4.37 forty-yard dash at his pro day) who averaged 6 yards per carry and 44.5 catches per year in his last 3 seasons at New Mexico State. If he’s able to get on the field for 15-20 snaps, He could turn out to be a bargain at his price tag.

Verdict: My favorite play of the rookies in this matchup. Very little risk with enough upside to roll the dice.

WR Quez Watkins, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With Jackson expected back for week 7, Watkins will be lucky if he’s on the field for more than a couple snaps. He played a season-high 15 snaps last week, but is yet to record his first target. You probably shouldn’t bet actual money that his first target and first fantasy points will come Thursday night.

Verdict: Shouldn’t be near your lineups, even at $200 price tag

That’s all I’ve got for Thursday night. Keep in mind that the optimal Thursday lineup may not include any of these guys, but with a single-game slate everyone is in play. My overall favorite plays for this game are the two defenses, Golden Tate, Boston Scott, and Jake Elliott, but the rookies are worth looking into as well.  Make sure to check back for the rest of the Rookie Report later this week, hopefully your Thursday night slate bets are a success. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

42 Pass Completions

If I told you that the franchise record for passing completions for the Colts was 42, you would immediately think of Peyton Manning. Nope, he only has 40. Maybe you would remember Andrew Luck – also topped out at 40, also against Houston, just like Peyton. It turns out, that record now belongs to Matt Ryan, who completed 42 of his 58 pass attempts on Sunday. I guess that’s really called for when Jonathan Taylor has to sit for his second straight game. Ryan threw 13 more passes than the next closest QB (Jacoby Brissett with 45), and had 13 more completions than the next highest total (Garoppolo with 29). Ryan may not be scoring a ton of points in Indy this year, but he’s led the team to a winning record and he has thrown the ball at least 37 times in all but one game this season. There may not be a lot of fantasy production from Ryan, though he is definitely a starting superflex QB every week, there’s value to be found at the WR position. 4 of their WRs are averaging at least 3 catches per game, and 8 players have at least double-digit receptions (Jonathan Taylor not among them).

28.6 Fantasy Points

Ja’Marr Chase led all WRs in fantasy points this week, putting up 7 catches for 132 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. His 28.6-point total was the second-highest of the week, behind his QB, Joe Burrow. Both players seemed to relish in their return to Louisiana, where they won a national championship with LSU. It’s the 4^th time in 23 regular season games that the pair have connected on multiple touchdown passes in one game. Chase has 7 games with 100+ receiving yards in his career, and now 6 games with over 20 fantasy points. He’s the WR5 on this season after this performance, despite half his games being under 9 fantasy points. His forever-teammate, Joe Burrow, is also 5^th at his position in fantasy points. He’s been a bit more consistent, accumulating a respectable total with only two top-5 finishes this season.

19 Total Points

Thursday night football has really been stinking it up lately. It’s best to go ahead and make dinner reservations on Thursdays if the last two games are any indicator. Week 6’s matchup between the Bears and the Commanders was just 3-0 at halftime. Chicago, despite rushing for a ridiculous 238 yards, generated only 7 points. This just goes to show that imbalance I have spoken of over the last few weeks is still a big problem, and not resulting in any good outcomes for the Bears. The previous Thursday resulted in only 2 more points, a 12-9 game that excruciatingly went into overtime – extra football that nobody asked for. Tonight, we’re being given our 4^th primetime look at the Broncos in 6 weeks. Someone at the scheduling office is clearly a fan of bad football. The Saints @ Cardinals this coming Thursday does nothing to dispel that notion. The only advice I can give is to bet on bad football and not start anyone on Thursdays if you can help it.

116 Rushing Yards

Breece Hall is really getting going now in his rookie season. This week, he posted his first game with 100+ rushing yards. He’s now scored a rushing TD in 3 straight weeks – all of them victories for the Jets. He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the last 2 games, and though he’s had only 2 targets per game in the last 3 games, he’s still 3^rd in the league in receiving yards among running backs. Hall is the RB6 on the season and is putting up very consistent fantasy points. He has at least 12 points in every game other than week 1. He has increased his carries every single week, and is averaging just over 5 yards per carry on the season. Hall is really having the season you hoped for if you drafted him first overall in dynasty leagues, and the Jets are surprisingly good, though apparently, it’s not very surprising to them.

616 Rushing Yards

The Jets, however, aren’t even the best team from NYC. The Giants are 5-1, showing that their win last week was not a fluke with this week’s comeback against the Ravens. The Giants now have more wins this season than they did all last year when they went 4-13. Led by Saquon Barkley, the RB2 in fantasy, he has the 2^nd most rushing yards in the league, the 7^th most receiving yards among RBs, and leads the league in rushing attempts. Barkley looks like the player he was in his first two seasons. He has at least 17 points in all but 1 game this year. His next 4 matchups are very favorable, including one against the Texans, who are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. All 4 of those opponents are giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs. Barkley could definitely be a player to target if you need that one more piece on your squad to put you over the top.