Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Third year WRs tend to be a hot commodity come draft time, so let’s take a look in to some past successes and failures, along with a few more of the third year guys coming up in 2018. If you haven’t done so, check out Part 1.

A quick review over last year's WRs in their third season showed a few definite successes from further down the ranks, and a few disappointments from the top. Most notably, DeVante Parker was probably the most hyped player preseason, but turned in a crappy 670 yards and just 1 TD.

Amari Cooper was the other top draft disappointment. He put up over 1000 yards in his first two seasons, and then finished 31st overall at WR in 2017. Only 2 of the 9 WRs drafted in the first two rounds in 2015 finished in the top 25 - Devin Funchess (21st) and Nelson Agholor (22nd).

The lack of success stories from last year are a bit of a reflection of a down WR year in general. Stefon Diggs did manage to finish on top of the class, but he was only about 3 points higher than Funchess and Agholor.  In all, the best that the 2015 class could achieve is the 4th tier of WRs.

There are some lower round picks that still look promising, but didn't break out in their third year. Tyler Lockett, Jamison Crowder and J.J. Nelson have all shown at least a few flashes of being big fantasy producers. Heck, even the converted RB Ty Montgomery technically counts as a WR drafted in 2015.

The 2014 WR draft class had an even bigger group in the first two rounds - 12 guys, and considerably more success. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee, Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry are all guys who were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and either had a considerable jump in their 3rd year, or were already at the top and had another good season.

Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson all took a step back in their third season, but remained fantasy relevant. The pickings were slim further down the draft board, with only Martavis Bryant really generating any interest, but winding up suspended that year.

Over the last couple of years, there's plenty of examples of big seasons from third year WRs, but a lot of them are from players who had success very early in their career. A true breakout WR1 performance like Davante Adams in 2016 isn't that common, but getting guys up to the WR3 level is a very reasonable thing to expect.

This year, there's 12 guys whose chances we're considering for a 2018 breakout. In Part 1, we had the 1st round guys - now we'll do guys from rounds 2 through 4 (some of them in there are already irrelevant and have been skipped). Part 3 will cover the last 4 guys that were drafted before Tyreek Hill.

Sterling Shepard (NYG) - Shepard was the 40th overall pick in 2016, and had a pretty respectable rookie year. Unfortunately, he dropped to only 85.5 points in 11 games (7.77 ppg) last year, compared to 119.4 points over 16 games (9.95 ppg). This drop in points per game also came with an increase in targets per game (from 6.56 in 2016 to 7.64 last year).

So, Sterling went through the stereotypical “sophomore slump”, but this is not all his fault (apart from injuries), considering how bad his team was last year. The WR position was decimated for the Giants last season – Shepard missing only 6 games made him one of the more reliable WRs on the team. When he was in, his production was volatile, mostly because the team had no idea what they were doing.

In 2017, the 3 games where he had 10 or more targets Shepard went over 100 receiving yards and had at least 14 fantasy points in each game. Those were his first 100+ receiving games since Week 2 of his rookie year, so we are seeing improvement in his ceiling, if not improvement in his floor as a fantasy player. What I want to see from Shepard in 2018 is better performances in his bad games. 5 (out of 11) games under 5 points in standard scoring is going to keep him on the bench most weeks.

We move on to the biggest question with Shepard, and that’s about his team. What will he be surrounded by in 2018? Thus far, he has a new coach – the offensive minded Pat Shurmur, who made Adam Thielen into a pro-bowler and Stefon Diggs into the best 3^rd year WR in 2017. It looks like QB Eli Manning will return for another season as the Giants starter, despite Ben McAdoo’s best efforts, so this is a definite plus for Shepard.

At WR, Shepard should move into the 2 spot once the Giants part ways with Brandon Marshall, which is very likely to happen since the 34-year old is coming off of a couple of major injuries and cutting him will save over $5 million from the cap. Odell Beckham Jr. will be back and will command a majority of the targets, as well as WR1 draft status and lots of attention from opposing defenses.

I give Sterling Shepard a 50% chance at breaking out into a solid WR3 for the Giants. This reflects the Giants likely drafting an offensive player at #2 that is not a QB or WR (meaning the pick will be complimentary and not take away from his possible production). I really have my doubts that he can move into WR2 territory, but anything is possible when you have a running mate like OBJ.

Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Drafted 55^th overall (2^nd round), Boyd was taken just a few picks after Michael Thomas (47^th) and was the last WR taken until late in the third round. A similar refrain with all these WRs, Boyd missed some time in his 2^nd season due to injury and this really caused him to take a step back in 2017. Boyd had at least 2 receptions in all but 2 games of his rookie season, which made his future look promising. The script was flipped in 2017, where Boyd only had more than 2 receptions in 2 games – just the last two of the season.

Boyd’s 2017 is almost a throw-away season, but he played so much that this has to be taken into account. If you remove the last two games, he averaged just 1.5 receptions per game. The one bright spot is that he scored the game winning TD in Week 17 to eliminate the Baltimore Ravens from playoff contention. His biggest play wasn’t even fantasy relevant since it occurred in Week 17, so he was a total zero in fantasy last season.

I don’t think that Boyd’s roster spot is guaranteed this season. Ahead of him on the depth chart are A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell, along with last year’s rookie dud John Ross. I have to assume that all things being equal, Ross will be given more chances than Boyd to produce on the field and make the team. This will likely be a preseason competition, but not one to bother following closely.

I give Boyd just a 20% chance to become a WR3 this season. He would need a lot of things to work in his favor and would definitely need to pass LaFell up on the depth chart. I put Boyd’s chances so low because of his 2^nd year regression and the rest of the skill position talent on the Bengals. Boyd’s only chance is really if he solidifies the starting spot opposite Green and if Joe Mixon takes over as a 3-down player, eliminating lots of Bernard’s targets.

Braxton Miller (HOU) - Miller was picked #85 overall by the Texans, and has struggled to make it in the lineup for various reasons during his first two years. Aside from injuries, he's been a healthy scratch several times and has only played in 21 games, having a reception in only 16 of them. Needless to say, Braxton Miller hasn't done much in the NFL.

The Texans are full steam ahead to squeeze through their Super Bowl window, and this will probably leave Miller as the odd man out in Houston. I give Miller just a 10% chance of being fantasy relevant at all this season. He will probably be in an NFL camp this summer, but at this point he's probably not worth keeping around on your dynasty roster into next year.

Chris Moore (BAL) - Pick 114 in the 2015 draft by the Baltimore Ravens was Chris Moore. He's played in a whopping 28 games, which is very good for this draft class. Much of this action is due to his good play on special teams, which definitely makes him more valuable to a team - and more likely to get chances with the ball. Thus far, he hasn't had very much action on offense, but at least his career has trended in the right direction.

After just 7 receptions in his rookie year, he improved in every receiving stat over year two, though he only had 18 receptions. He did manage 3 TDs last season and his yards per reception went up to 13.8. Moore has never really been the guy, but then again, the Ravens passing game has been sluggish at best over the last couple of years.

This year, the Ravens have acquired Michael Crabtree (and not Ryan Grant) who will sit atop the depth chart. Currently Chris Moore is going to be up against first round (thus far) flop Breshad Perriman and former Cardinal John Brown for the second starting WR spot on the Ravens. Moore has the good fortune of being in just the right spot at the right time to take this starting job.

I give Moore a 50% chance of being fantasy relevant this season - not too bad for a 4th round pick three years ago. This doesn't really put him in as a end of draft flier in my opinion, but he is a guy to keep on your radar during the preseason. I'd say he has only a 15% chance at being a WR3, or someone you would want to start on a regular basis next year.