Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Having officially passed the halfway point for the 2020 Fantasy Football season, it's do or die time for most team managers to really step up their decision making and pickups from the waiver wire that can make all of the difference in those close matches. Ready to make your push for the playoffs? Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Jerick McKinnon, DeVante Parker, Marvin Jones, Mike Gesicki, Ross Dwelley, and the Tennessee Titans DST.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Houston Texans

What’s changed since last year? The Texans didn’t sign any offensive players of note in free agency, they fired their GM Brian Gaine, Lamar Miller tore his ACL and MCL in the preseason, and they acquired RB Duke Johnson from the Browns.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? There has been quite a bit of noise about 2^nd year WR Keke Coutee breaking out this year after a good showing in some games last year, but he has had trouble staying healthy and it looks like he won’t play early in the season after an ankle injury in early August. 4^th year WR Will Fuller has also had trouble staying healthy and went down with an ACL last year but appears to be fully recovered now and is my choice for a breakout. He did have 7 TDs in 2017 but has maxed out at only 635 yards so I think this year may be his best yet.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Duke Johnson (ADP79, RB34) is a good example of a sleeper pick right now, although his ADP has risen substantially since Lamar Miller suffered a season-ending knee injury. Especially in PPR leagues, Johnson could end up outperforming his ADP by miles if the Texans don’t end up picking up another RB to start. Either way, he’ll have the opportunity to succeed in this offense.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Deshaun Watson (ADP 40, QB2) is routinely taken off draft boards quickly, DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 5, WR1) is an easy decision to make here. Hopkins is an otherworldly talent who will almost certainly catch 100+ passes for 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs. Boom.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? 2^nd year TE Jordan Thomas (ADP 373, TE41) could find his way into being a TE2 on a team that craves some more options in the passing game, and UDFA RB Damarea Crockett (ADP 303, RB78) figures to find a way into the lineup throughout the year barring some major moves from the Texans. Duke Johnson has not missed an NFL game, however, so Crockett’s path to playing time probably doesn’t happen that way.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Of note, the Texans picked TE Kahale Warring (3^rd round, #86 overall) for depth at the position – analysis reveals that Warring needs a lot of help with his blocking but is a skilled route runner. He will likely not provide a fantasy impact in 2019. [Editor's Note: Warring is now a candidate for IR, looks like he certainly won't be making any immediate impact in fantasy]

Indianapolis Colts

What’s changed since last year? #1 with a bullet, Andrew Luck has retired, leaving most NFL analysts, fans, players, and coaches in shock. Yowza. This clearly impacts the Colts’ offense negatively in general and we’ll likely see ripples of this in fantasy for years to come. They added Devin Funchess after losing Dontrelle Inman and Ryan Grant and added Spencer Ware.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? 2^nd year WR Deon Cain (ADP 342, WR114) has been killing it in the preseason, so let’s go with him. He tore his ACL in early August last year which is why his name may have faded from memory, but he’ll be a week 1 starter for the Colts and has been showing great chemistry with Jacoby Brissett (who is now the starting QB there). Roll the dice on this kid in a deep draft, why not?

Who is a sleeper you can draft? At this point almost all the Colts are still being drafted above their ADP when you factor in the effects of Luck’s retirement. Perhaps Nyheim Hines (ADP 185, RB58) could help out as a safety valve for the new QB and improve on the yardage (425) and TD (2) numbers he had last year...

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Marlon Mack (ADP 38, RB21) is being drafted earlier than T.Y. Hilton (ADP 41, WR15), Hilton has more value and a higher upside (5 1000+ yard receiving seasons while Mack has not yet reached 1000 yards rushing). I’m calling Hilton the stud on this team, and the Colts may be playing from behind more than they have the lead this season. Chuck it, Jacoby!

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? While everyone is drafting Eric Ebron (ADP 90, TE8) as a top 10 TE, they may be forgetting about Jack Doyle (ADP 203, TE21) a little too soon. Doyle finished the 2017 season as the TE8, with 80 receptions, without Andrew Luck. He didn’t participate in the offseason program at all, due to hip/kidney surgeries, but is now recovered and chomping at the bit to provide some fantasy production to your team. Could he cause Ebron to bust in 2019? Maybe.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Parris Campbell (ADP 205, WR70) has missed the last 15 team practices in training camp and preseason due to a lingering hamstring injury. He may play against the Bengals this week, but it looks like he’ll start out the year as the WR4 on the Colts, behind Hilton, Funchess, and Cain. He’s still very much a weapon that the Colts will use but is not likely to be relevant this year without a top QB at the helm.

Tennessee Titans

What’s changed since last year? Congrats on the new gig as backup QB in Nashville, Ryan Tannehill! The Titans also added WR Adam Humphries and drafted rookie WR A.J. Brown.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? So, the narrative says that 3^rd year WR Corey Davis (ADP 94, WR37) should be the breakout player on the Titans this year. And I agree, he should. 2018 basically doubled his stats from the previous year, and at 65 receptions for 891 yards, he doesn’t have far to go to eclipse that 1000 mark. The trouble is really the offense in general but he is currently on a trajectory to be an every week fantasy starter.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Without hesitation, Delanie Walker (ADP 114, TE11). True, he’s getting older (35 as of August 12^th, happy birthday Delanie!), but he strung together 4 straight seasons of 100+ targets and 800+ yards before he was injured in game 1 of 2018. He’s still the starting TE of the Titans and still Mariota’s favorite redzone target. His ADP has been rising recently but he has been no worse than the TE 5 over the past three years. This guy could help you win your league at his current valuation. Former Patriots’ RB Dion Lewis (ADP 129, RB46) is also a possible sleeper, if incumbent starter Derrick Henry is unable to live up to expectations.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Derrick Henry (ADP 36, RB19) is as close as we get to a stud on the Titans now (not counting Walker since consensus is lower on him after coming back from injury), but he’s not quite there. Last year, Henry rushed for 1000+ yards and 12 TDs though – so if he can match those numbers this season, he’ll be drafted as a stud RB in 2020. What are the odds?

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Adam Humphries (ADP 224, WR74) is not currently being drafted in most leagues, and has been getting some buzz in the preseason, even receiving more targets than Davis in the preseason. Last year he had 76 receptions for 816 yards and 5 TDs playing slot receivers for the Bucs. That said – there may not be enough targets to spread around in Tennessee - maybe he just signed with the Titans for the $36 million and a cool place to Netflix and chill.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The only rookie that the Titans took on the offensive side of the ball during the 2019 draft was WR A.J. Brown (ADP 207, WR71). He was drafted #51 overall in the 2^nd round and has all the pieces to be a #1 WR on any NFL team. Unfortunately, he was drafted by the Titans. In Tennessee, Brown has to deal with unpredictable QB play, a struggling offensive line, a middling number of targets available for the playmakers, and a depth chart that currently has both Davis and Walker in front of him as primary options in the passing game. From all the tape I’ve seen of him, it’s likely that Brown will be great – but it’s not likely that it’s in 2019.

Jacksonville Jaguars

[Editor's Note: Jaguars information will be available shortly]