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The Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
Statistically (in)Significant: Week 12
29
November

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 12

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

16 Total TDs

 

Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 on the season, and the second highest scoring player among all fantasy football players. He and Josh Allen have supplanted Jalen Hurts at the top of the overall list, and now I can stop trash talking Jalen Hurts and let him just be bad in Philadelphia. Oops, maybe I’ll stop now. Anyways, Taylor has a league leading 16 total TDs on the season. He also leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,541. He has 35 more fantasy points than the next highest non-QB, Cooper Kupp – though Kupp has had a bye, and Taylor’s is coming up in Week 14. Taylor has an average of 22.2 points per game, still shy of Derrick Henry (still the 7th highest point total among non-QBs) – who would just be the biggest story in the NFL if he had remained healthy and continued the pace that he was on. Back to Taylor, who nearly had a remarkable record. Last week he tied LaDanian Tomlinson with 8 straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards and 1 TD. In week 12, he came just 3 yards short of extending that streak to a record breaking 9 games.

 

2 Receptions for the WR1

 

This week’s stupid technicality stat comes to us courtesy of the most impressive hybrid player in the league, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson has had RB and WR eligibility the entire season, and it makes sense, because he’s both! He is the WR7 on the season and the RB8, yet he only has one game over 100 receiving yards, and 1 game – this week – over 100 rushing yards. He does have 6 games over 100 total yards (including return yards, he really does do it all) and has 9 total touchdowns. He’s achieved at quite a high level all year and has huge season long totals, despite having missed one week on bye, and another week with an injury. It’s very rare for a player to finally break out in his 9th season, on his 5th team. Patterson is someone that offensive coordinators have tried to unlock all over the league, and it’s one of the least likely storylines this season that the Falcons offense, of all teams, have managed to figure out how to make him one of the top 10 offensive weapons in the entire league. Perhaps the credit should fall to Patterson himself, considering the Falcons offense is 27th in total points and 26th in total yards.

 

10 TEs over 10 Points

 

Most weeks you can find 8-10 TEs scoring at least double-digit points, so that’s perhaps not the most impressive stat I can provide you here. What I am proud of is that 6 of those 10 tight ends are owned in the drinkfive fantasy league. Unfortunately, none of the next 10 are rostered, giving us a 30% hit rate among the top 20 tight ends for week 12. In a cruel twist of ownership, 8 of the top 11 TEs that are the most owned TEs in all of Fleaflicker scored just 4.3 points or fewer (Darren Waller gets the ominous distinction of being the tallest…er…bad tight end this week). Jack Doyle led the way this week, in the second lowest TE1 score that we’ve seen all season long (T.J. Hockenson’s 13.9 points in week 8 get that award). Tonight’s game should see the return of Logan Thomas, who averaged 9 points per game, so at least there’s a bit of quality returning to the TE pool.

 

2 Losing Teams Over 200 Rushing Yards

 

Back when the NFL was a run-heavy league, a team that got to 200+ rushing yards was almost guaranteed a win. This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans both dominated their opponents on the ground, but were unable to turn that into control of the game. They both lacked a clear lead in the time of possession, and ultimately, on the scoreboard. The only other team that rushed for at least 200 yards was the San Fransisco 49ers, who did dominate the time of possession, still needed to cash in on two quick turnovers by the Vikings in the 3rd quarter to take control of the game in order to use the rushing attack to their advantage. In both the Eagles’ and Titans’ case, their problem was terrible QB play that prevented them from scoring points. Neither team could top 130 yards passing, both of them threw the ball to the other team, and both had an abysmal completion percentage to boot. The NFL is a game of passing attacks with the run game complimenting it, just ask the Raiders with Derek Carr’s 6-0 record when he throws for at least 300 yards. They are 0-5 when he does not reach the 300-yard mark.

 

2 TDs in 4 Straight Games

 

Joe Mixon is quietly keeping his team firmly in the playoff chase with a feat that has not been seen for 15 years in the NFL. Mixon has 2 touchdowns in 4 consecutive games now, with 13 total on the season. Mixon has scored every single week since week 4, and only has 2 games this season where he did not find the end zone. He has at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and is now sitting as the RB3 on the season. He is just one of 5 non-QBs that have eclipsed the 200-point mark for the season. He has picked up where his rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase has left off. Chase started out the season on a tear, but has not gone over 50 yards in each of his last 4 games (since he blew up for 201 yards) and those are his 4 lowest totals on the season. Joe Burrow, likewise, has struggled lately, throwing only 2 TDs in the last 3 games, with 3 INT over that same time period (one of those going back to the house the other way). Mixon IS the Bengals offense at this point, and has a matchup coming up against the Chargers, giving up the 5th most points to opposing RBs.

 

 

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 14
09
December

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 14

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

With the league extending to 17 games and 18 weeks this season, bye weeks have also been extended.
 
 
Normally we are done with teams taking a week off and are back to a full slate of 16 games a week by this time. We still have a little time before we are able to score more points for our season long pool, so every game still counts…even the Jets games!
 
 
Week 14 – HERE WE GO!!!!
 
 
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
 
14 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – Have no fear Bears fans, this MIGHT be the last time you have to play Aaron Rodgers!
 
13 – KANSAS CITY over Las Vegas – The Chiefs embarrassed the Raiders in Vegas just a couple weeks ago – hard to think moving the 
game to KC will help the Raiders any.
 
12 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – Yes the Titans have been riddled with injuries…but this is still a home game against the Jaguars.
 
11 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over New York Giants – If you’re a Giants fan on the west coast, stay close to your phone, you may be asked to play quarterback. 
 
10 – New Orleans over NEW YORK JETS – It’s been a while since the Saints have played a game that you just assumed was going to be incredibly boring. 
 
9 – DENVER over Detroit – It was amazing that the Lions actually won a game last week – two in a row would downright be a miracle.
 
8 – TAMPA BAY over Buffalo – I told a friend shortly before their last game that I thought the Bills could make the Super Bowl…which was apparently their kiss of death. 
 
7 – CINCINNATI over San Francisco – Is it weird to think of this as an outside-the-box Super Bowl preview? 
 
6 – Baltimore over CLEVELAND – Old Browns continue to make Cleveland upset that the current Browns are, well, the current Browns.
 
5 – Seattle over HOUSTON – It’s still odd to me that Seattle is, deservedly, this low against Houston.
 
4 – MINNESOTA over Pittsburgh – The week starts out with a “they’ll win because they’re the home team” matchup.
 
3 – ARIZONA over Los Angeles Rams – Bet the over…just…just bet the over! 
 
2 – WASHINGTON over Dallas – This may just be the start of what we’ll see the rest of the season. My BOLD PREDICTION is that WASHINGTON WILL WIN THE NFC EAST.
 
1 – CAROLINA over Atlanta – This just may be the week the thrill and excitement of Cam Newton starting for the Panthers again leads to a win!

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NFL Survivor Pool: Week 1
11
September

NFL Survivor Pool: Week 1

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Welcome back to another season of NFL survivor pool extravaganza! Week one always seems to be one of the toughest to make picks, soo many question marks, and teams no longer show anything in the pre-season to help you get a feel for what is to come. I was already shocked on Thursday night when the Bills Schalacked the Rams at their ring ceremony. Not surprised they won, but the margin was insane, and holding LA to 10 points with 7 sacks, Wow! 

 

However, there is one thing I am certain of in this first week of the season. Russel Wilson and the Denver Broncos will not lose on Monday night to his former team up in Seattle. It's pretty simple. Russ will be highly motivated and the Seahawks are one of the teams pegged to be drafting at the top of the draft next year. Denver's defense will shut down the Hawks and won't need to put up much on offense.

 

My second pick would be either the Baltimore Ravens over the Jets or the Titans at home vs the Giants. After some back and forth I went with the Titans simply because it was a home game and I wanted to use them up early on and save the Ravens for later.

 

Cheers! Drink Five!

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 14
12
December

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 14

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

33.70 Fantasy Points

 

This week’s best performance by a WR/RB/TE came from a very unexpected place. Evan Engram had a monster game, putting up 33.70 points in the best game of his career by a long shot. He caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 162 yards and found the end zone twice. That’s a career-high for targets, yardage, touchdowns, and tied his high in receptions. He increased his season total in yardage by 42%. He scored more than 31% of his fantasy points this season this week. It took him the first 6 weeks of the season to get to 33.7 points. He has jumped all the way up to TE4 for the year – he was the TE15 going into the week. He’s increased his weekly average by 2.2 points. He scored more than the TE1 and TE2 combined last week. He scored more than the TE2 and TE3 combined this week.

 

4 Touchdown Passes

 

Russell Wilson threw 4 touchdown passes on Sunday, though one of them was to the wrong team. It took Russ 4 games to throw his 4 first TDs of the season. Over his next 7 games, he only threw 4 more. Then on Sunday, he managed to throw another 4 – with three of them going to his own team! It’s only the second time all season that he’s thrown for more than one touchdown. He improved from QB22 to QB19 – almost worth starting in a superflex league. He’s averaging more than a point per game less than Marcus Mariota. Russ finally got to cook in Kansas City, but he provided his opponents a little too much of their own home cookin’ to be able to try and avoid his 5th L in a row.

 

223 Receiving Yards       

                             

Marking a new career high, Justin Jefferson caught 11 passes for 223 yards. He did not make it to the end zone but still was the WR2 on the week with 27.8 points. He’s less than 2 points behind the unexpected 3 TD performance of Jerry Jeudy. But back to Jefferson – it’s the 6th time he’s had 139 or more receiving yards. He’s at an even 1,500 yards for the season, and with 4 games left, he has a real shot at passing 2,000 yards receiving, which would be a first for any NFL receiver. I suppose it helps when your QB throws the ball 41 times in a game – the 5th time Kirk Cousins has done that this year. Amazingly, Cousins is only 4th for attempts this season – Tom Brady leads the way with 89 more attempts than Kirk!

 

99 Rushing Yards

 

So close to that mostly meaningless mark of 100 yards – unless you’re in a league with bonuses. In which case, I offer my condolences to those with Josh Jacobs on their team, but not really. Honorable mention goes to those with Joe Mixon on their team, 96 yards. Jacobs finds himself as the RB1 on the season, a spot he’s held the last couple of weeks. He has 1,402 rushing yards, which is 203 more than the second-place RB, Derrick Henry. He has 1,748 yards from scrimmage, which is 224 more than the aforementioned Justin Jefferson. Jacobs is averaging just over 134 yards from scrimmage per game. He has 11 touchdowns on the season, but if he had zero, his yardage and receptions would make him the RB7.

 

3 D/ST Teams with Negative Points

 

The Tennessee Titans became the 6th team this season to post the absolute failure of a fantasy stat line. -4 points from your D/ST. That means that they gave up 35+ points to the opposing team, while not forcing a single turnover or sack or really blocking anything or doing a single thing of note all game long. Joining them in their failure are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings. All three teams gave up at least 34 points and over 400 yards of offense. It’s the third time this year that the Titans have finished with negative points. I don’t understand what the people who roster this team were thinking, going against the upsurging Jaguars – 45% of leagues in Fleaflicker have the Titans rostered. And while, yes, I’m responsible for the Titans being on a roster in two of those leagues, I must defend myself by pointing out that in two other leagues, I have the Buccaneers.

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