Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

On this episode of the Fantasy Finish Line podcast - your hosts Jason Evans and David Biggs will get into the weeds on 2nd year WRs - who is predicted to perform at a high level, who may be good value picks for the later rounds of your draft as bench depth, and who you should stay away from. We'll also touch on some fantasy red flags. When do you want to avoid drafting and/or starting players on a weekly basis? Stay on top of the latest news and analysis by listening to the show!

This video/podcast will go live at 9pm CT on Wednesday, September 1, 2021 - it will also be available on all major podcast channels and remain available on YouTube for later review and comments. Join us live and add your comments/questions to the show!

This video features the songs and artists listed below, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license:
- Various original music by David Biggs

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Since we’re doing a podcast on Tuesday night this week, let’s return to an old favorite and go over some good waiver pickups for Week 5. All players owned in less than 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, and FAAB bid suggestions are a percentage of your total budget.

QB

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR, 42% owned, FAAB 5%) – Bridgewater is legitimately trending up with improved performances over the last 3 weeks. Now, in Week 5, he gets to face the Falcons who have surrendered essentially 30 fantasy points to the QB position of their opponent every single week. This is a great fill-in if you have injury or bye concerns. Week 6 vs Chi is not great, but then Week 7 is another top matchup against the Saints. Christian McCaffrey could be back by that game as well. Bridgewater is gelling with his receivers nicely and the Panthers are now on a little 2 game win streak.

Kirk Cousins (MIN, 64% owned, FAAB 6-7%) – Cousins had a truly abysmal outing in Week 2, but it turns out that the Colts defense is really good, so we can probably write that one-off. Now he’s got consecutive games against the teams giving up the second and most points to opposing QBs. Both teams, Seattle and Atlanta, are giving up an average of 30+ points per game. Cousins has a very reliable run game that opposing defenses will be forced to focus on before the pass. He’s also found a great connection with his rookie WR, Justin Jefferson. Combine that with Adam Thielen trending up and you’re going to find Kirk Cousins in the top 5 QBs the next couple of weeks.

RB

Damien Harris (NE, 43% owned, FAAB 15-18%) – Harris was quite impressive on Monday Evening Football, putting up a perfect 10.0. Well, I suppose he could have done a bit better, but 100 yards on 17 carries is a nice average. This is the kind of production that will keep you in the lineup on the Patriots, especially with Sony Michel heading to the IR yesterday. Now, traditionally starting RBs for the Patriots is a recipe for driving yourself insane, but let’s just look at their current stable of RBs. Damien Harris is in line to take almost all of the early-down work, provided the game is not getting out of hand. The Patriots defense should keep them in every game. James White will get almost all of the 3^rd down work, and as demonstrated last night, even when he’s playing well, he won’t see much – if any – work on early downs. Sprinkle in a little Rex Burkhead and that’s your rotation. I see Harris as a high floor player with a decent ceiling if he can find the end zone. Just know that when Cam comes back, Harris will probably Cede some goal-line and short-yardage work to him, but then again, he was probably already going to lose a few of those carries to Burkhead anyways.

Justin Jackson (LAC, 22% owned, FAAB 10-12%) – Jackson did not produce much in limited work on Sunday, but he’s been able to produce in the past and he’s definitely going to be given opportunities. The Chargers have always worked with more of a split in carries than most teams, and they should continue to do that with Ekeler out. Joshua Kelley will see the largest boost in production on the team, but he’s a rookie and I do not see him getting 3-down work at all. Kelley has also lost a fumble in consecutive games, and any more of that will see him lose carries. Jackson had an impressive 6.9 yards per carry last season, and his rookie year showed him as effective in the passing game. He’s had a small sample size over his whole career, but now is when he can get sustained work and string a few good games together in a bid to get a larger share of the RB work for the Chargers.

D’Ernest Johnson (CLE, 2% owned, FAAB 13-15%) – Nick Chubb is headed to the IR, and that means that D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up in Cleveland. Johnson looked very good in his first actual game where he got a decent amount of work. This was against a Cowboys team that allowed a franchise-record number of rushing yards. Johnson produced 95 yards on only 13 carries, good for a 7.3 ypc average. Thus far this season, the Browns have been quick to swap between Chubb and Hunt, especially as the game goes on. I expect this to continue with Johnson and Hunt – perhaps with Johnson replacing more of Chubb’s carries instead of Hunt and keeping Hunt in a similar role to what he has now. The Browns are leading the league in rushing yards and are 2^nd in rushing attempts, so their 2^nd RB is a must-own.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB, 41% owned, FAAB 5-8%) – Vaughn has had a rough start to his rookie campaign. Injury and a positive COVID test in the preseason basically kept him out of training camp. Now that Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy have been sidelined with injuries, there’s room for Vaughn to show his stuff. He had only 5 touches but did find the end zone. Any RB that can connect with Tom Brady in the passing game has potential for a high ceiling, once his usage goes up. For now, I like Vaughn as a bench stash, though he can be used in an emergency situation this week if you need. The Bucs play on Thursday night and the quick turnaround will make it tough for their injured RBs to return by then. Fresh legs will be at a premium, and while the Bears have a solid defense this year, they have resigned themselves to Tom Brady being one of their co-owners along with the McCaskeys.

WR

Cole Beasley (BUF, 44% owned, FAAB 8%) – Beasley has been very fantasy relevant this season because Josh Allen is playing like he deserves some MVP consideration. Usually, a really strong passing offense can support 3 WRs in fantasy, and the Bills are apparently one of those offenses this season. Beasley had 20 targets through 3 games going into last week and was getting good work until he went out with an injury in the 2^nd half of the game in Las Vegas. Beasley did return later in the game, and the injury came on a spectacular TD catch, so I don’t expect Beasley to miss too much time. This team is just too exciting to stay away for long. This week, the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans, so keep an eye on Beasley’s practice attendance, as well as the Titans COVID testing results. As of the time of writing, the Titans have gone 2 straight days with no new positives, which means that they can open their facilities tomorrow, barring any new developments. I like Beasley as an injury/bye week replacement and a guy you should keep on your roster since he will move up the depth chart if there are any long-term injuries to Diggs or Brown.

Laviska Shenault (JAX, 47% owned, FAAB 5%) – Shenault is a rookie and all rookies are going to have growing pains, however, the Jaguars really like this rookie and are trying their best to get the ball in his hand. He has at least 5 touches in every game this season. He also has at least one rushing attempt in every game and last week put up a season-high of 91 yards from scrimmage. The bigger worry with the Jaguars is whether Minshew Mania is for real or not. After a surprise win against the Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars have lost 3 straight and now must go to Houston to face a team that will be fired up after finally ridding themselves of Bill O’Brien. Shenault is just behind Cole and Chark for the receiving yardage lead on his team. 5 players on the team have over 130 receiving yards on the season already, showing that Minshew likes to spread the ball around. Any changes in the depth chart will benefit Shenault and he is a TD away from a very good performance any week. Consider him a bench stash, for now, to be used to fill in for byes and injuries, especially if his team is getting a good matchup.

Tee Higgins (CIN, 45% owned, FAAB 10%) – Higgins just dwarfs everybody on the field when you see him on TV. He lines up at WR, but wears 85 (why do so few WRs not wear numbers in the 80’s anymore?) and is easily mistaken for a TE. He’s 6’4” but runs a lot faster than you expect him to. He’s an elite WR talent and is just starting to find his groove. Now that the Bengals finally have a win under their belt, they have some very tough matchups. I fully expect Joe Burrow to continue throwing the ball a lot – he is currently second in the league for passing attempts. Higgins leads his team in yards per reception, is second in receiving yards, and third in targets. I expect his target share to grow with A.J. Green struggling as he has. This is a young man’s league, and Green is not that anymore. Get Higgins on your bench now while he’s still cheap. The Bengals have a much softer schedule when it’s time for you to make your playoff push.

Scott Miller (TB, 29% owned, FAAB 8%) – Miller is officially trending up in several categories, including receptions, targets, and fantasy points. The Bucs keep running into injuries, so there’s going to be plenty of playing time for Miller going forward. Tom Brady also seems to be up to his old tricks with a 5 TD game (to 5 different players). With Brady getting in the groove with his new team, there will be plenty of fantasy potential out there. Miller is going to see lots of targets as long as Chris Godwin remains out (for this week most likely) and Mike Evans keeps getting banged up (every week it seems). This week doesn’t seem to be a great matchup for him, however as I mentioned earlier, Tom Brady owns the Bears, so you could do a lot worse than Scott Miller as a bye week or injury replacement.

Tim Patrick (DEN, 8% owned, FAAB 3%) – Patrick is a deep league option, but has all the signs you look for when grabbing a waiver wire player. He’s trending up on a team that has an injury above him on the depth chart. He has increased his receptions each of the last 3 weeks, along with his yardage and fantasy points. He’s also scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks. With Brett Rypien filling in the next week at least, at least he and Patrick have a bit of a downfield rapport developing. However, they’re going to New England, who will smother them on the pass defense. The only solace may be that the Broncos could find themselves down by enough points that they have to throw the ball deep anyways. Grab Patrick as a cheap bench stash if you can’t get any of the players listed above and wait until he has easier games to take a flyer on him in your lineup.

TE

Robert Tonyan (GB, 31% owned, FAAB 10%) – Tonyan will be on bye in Week 5, so he’s not going to be there for you if you need someone this week, but he looks like one of Rodgers’s favorite targets this year. Tonyan has a touchdown in all 3 games that he started this year and put up an incredible 6 rec, 98-yard, 3 TD performance on Monday Night Football yesterday. Tonyan was making the Falcons secondary look foolish, and it’s clear that he’s caught Rogers’s eye. Tonyan will be one of the hottest waiver pickups this week, and if people with big budgets in your league need TEs, you will probably need to double that FAAB to 20% or more to have a shot at landing him. When the Packers return, even with Davante Adams, I expect Tonyan to be a relevant TE1 for the rest of the season.

Dalton Schultz (DAL, 49% owned, FAAB 8%) – Schultz found the end zone for the second time this season on Sunday and he currently sits as the TE8 after 4 games. With Dak Prescott throwing the ball so much and so well, there will be plenty of work for Schultz. He already has 28 targets on the season and there’s not a lot of competition for his spot on the Cowboys depth chart. As long as Dak keeps throwing the ball like he has been, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise, Schultz will be in the TE1 conversation based on volume alone.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 7 was another eventful one for the rookie crop. Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb each seemingly took the week off, but there were plenty of other big rookie performances to enjoy. Brandon Aiyuk, Antonio Gibson and James Robinson all reached 100 scrimmage yards in week 7, bringing the total of 100-yard days for the rookies to 23 divvied up between 12 different players. Justin Herbert finished the week as the QB1 and Joe Burrow as the QB4 in the best week of the season for either of them. Clyde Edwards-Helaire found the end zone of the first time since week 1, Harrison Bryant found it twice, and Albert Okwuegbunam became the first rookie tight end to reach 60 receiving yards in a game this year. The rookies certainly have more in store for us in week 8, so let’s dive in and look at what to expect…

(Note: All fantasy point totals and rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. All players under same header at same position are listed in order I would play them this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): Burrow has had the Browns’ number this season despite the Bengals getting swept by Cleveland for the year. Over the two meetings Burrow totaled over 700 yards and 6 scores through the air, and another 53 and a TD on the ground. Since week 2, Burrow has thrown for over 300 yards against every opponent he’s faced except the Ravens, and the Titans aren’t a daunting matchup. Tennessee has given up the 10^th-most QB points per game despite facing the 11^th-easiest QB schedule. They’ve allowed each of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to throw for 250+ yards and multiple TDs, and I’d expect the Bengals’ QB to have a great chance to extend that streak to 6. Burrow is in-play for 1-QB leagues this week.

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Herbert is coming off a monster game in week 7, his best fantasy game of the year, but the matchup this week isn’t quite as easy. I’d still view him as a low-end QB1 for week 8. He’s thrown for at least 260 yards each game this season and has accounted for 11 total TDs in the last 3 weeks. Denver has only allowed 2 QBs to throw for 250 yards against them, and has given up just 1 passing TD in the last 3 games combined, but they’ve proven to be vulnerable to QB runs. Sam Darnold ran for 84 yards and a score against them in week 4, and Cam Newton ran for 76 and a TD in week 6. Herbert showed what he can do running the ball last week with 66 yards and a TD on the ground against Jacksonville. That rushing ability should give him enough cushion to withstand it if he doesn’t have a ceiling passing game. View Herbert as a very strong QB2 or upside low-end QB1.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 8: @Det.): Taylor benefitted in his last couple games from a banged up Jordan Wilkins, and while Wilkins may be healthier this week the matchup with Detroit is good enough for Taylor to be a locked-in RB2 even if he cedes some carries to the vet. Detroit allows the 5^th-most RB points per game, the Colts are favored by a field goal, and Taylor is coming off his most productive receiving game since week 1. Taylor is a safe bet to make a run at 100 scrimmage yards for the second game in a row, and given the Colts’ implied total of 26.5 he’s a pretty good bet to find the end zone as well.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): I can’t say for sure if Edwards-Helaire has felt the pressure from the Chiefs’ signing of Le’Veon Bell, but his play over the last two weeks has looked like that of a man that doesn’t want to lose his job. In Bell’s debut, CEH had to split work with the veteran addition, and had to give way to DeAndre Washington in the 2^nd half with the game well in hand, but he still managed to finish as the RB15 for the week. This week’s matchup with the Jets has as lopsided of an NFL betting line as I’ve ever seen, with Kansas City favored by an absurd 19.5 points. It’s possible CEH and Bell are watching from the sideline down the stretch again, but you can’t sit Clyde in this game. The Jets have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game, and CEH is the lead half of the RB committee in a game where the Chiefs implied total is 34 points. There is a great chance that Edwards-Helaire gets in the end zone in this one, and he should be locked into your lineup if you have him.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 8: @GB): Over the last month or so Jefferson has made a clear case that his upside is just too much to leave on your bench. He’s topped 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and 160 in two of them. He did square off with the Packers in week 1 without much success (2-26 on 3 targets), but that was with no preseason, and he had yet to unseat Bisi Johnson for the WR2 role. Adam Thielen is likely to draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, which could be a boost for Jefferson. Alexander has struggled with Adam Thielen in past meetings, including coughing up 6-110-2 on 8 targets in week 1, but Jaire has been much better since then. The Vikings are a 6-point underdog, so game script should keep them throwing. Jefferson should be a solid WR2 this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 8: @Sea.): The 49ers just cannot keep their offensive weapons healthy this season. Last Sunday it was Deebo Samuel and Jeffrey Wilson who went down, and Aiyuk stands to benefit from it this week. The Seahawks have allowed the most WR points per game in the league, and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. He’ll be the default WR1 in this game. The 49ers have a reputation of throwing most of their passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Aiyuk can excel in that short passing game, but the average pass thrown to Aiyuk has been over 11 yards downfield. He’s not limited to just the short game. The 49ers will have to score to keep pace with Seattle, and that probably means 7+ targets for the rookie. He’s going to be a safe WR3 in all formats this week.

Borderline Rookies:

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 8: @Sea.): The 49ers should probably just start putting the words “next man up” on the back of their running back jerseys rather than a name. They’ve seen Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and now Jeffrey Wilson all go down with injuries this year, and every time someone goes down, they seem to have a dynamic back ready to step in and take over. It appears to be Hasty’s turn to be that back. He’s looked great on the opportunities he’s gotten in the last two weeks, totaling 94 yards on 18 carries. The Seahawks have been a solid run defense, ranking 8^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 12^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they struggled to contain Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Chase Edmonds in their last 2 games. The absence of run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams has started to be a problem. Adams’ status is still up in the air this week. If he plays it would be a slight downgrade for Hasty, but he should be in line for 15+ carries and a few targets as well. Jerick McKinnon will mix in a bit also, but look for Hasty to be the lead back. He should be a reasonable RB2 option this week depending on what your lineup looks like.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): Swift managed to find the end zone for the second straight week last Sunday, but the touchdown was the highlight of an otherwise pedestrian fantasy day. There were some positives to take away though. It was the second straight week where Swift led the backfield in snaps, and he’s seen almost as many carries as Adrian Peterson in those two weeks. He’s also now seen 4+ targets in 5 of 6 games for the season. He gets a tough matchup this week with the Colts, who allow the 5^th-fewest running back points per game, so you should temper expectations a little bit. I still think Swift has shown enough that he will continue to see the most snaps and touches in this backfield and is a viable flex option this week even in a difficult matchup.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Moss played in almost an even split of the backfield snaps with Devin Singletary in week 7, and if that timeshare continues he could be a sneaky upside option in week 8. The Patriots can be run on. They rank just 25^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed at least 1 running back in each of their last 5 games to reach 60+ rushing yards and 80+ scrimmage yards. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in this game, so game script should remain at least neutral for them. I like Moss’s chances of getting 10+ carries, and I think he’s the more likely bet than Singletary if the Pats are going to extend their streak to 6 games of 60+ and 80+. I view him as an upside RB3/flex option.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Mark Ingram left the Ravens’ week 6 game with an injury heading into the bye week, and he’s still not practicing this week as of Thursday. That means Dobbins and Gus Edwards are likely to split the backfield work on Sunday. The two saw an almost dead-even split of the snaps in week 6, with Dobbins handling 9 carries and 4 targets while Edwards handled 14 and 1. Dobbins had more rushing yards on his 9 attempts than Edwards had on 14. This week’s matchup with Pittsburgh is a difficult one. The Steelers rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-fewest points to the position, so it could be a bit of an uphill fight to a strong fantasy day. If you had to choose one of the two to play this week, I would go with Dobbins. He’s clearly the more explosive back, and he’s posted 3 plays of 30+ yards on just 36 touches this season. I’d view him as a contrarian DFS play at $4,600 in DraftKings and a flex option in deeper leagues.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Kelley seemed to move ahead of Justin Jackson in the Chargers’ backfield pecking order, but this will remain a fluid situation moving forward. Kelley out-snapped Jackson 38-to-31 and handled 17 touches to Jackson’s 10 against the Jaguars. The matchup this week is much tougher against a Denver defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game. The Broncos have allowed just 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their last 4 games, and James White had to catch 8 passes to accomplish the feat. Given that the work will be split between Kelley and Jackson, I’d only be considering Kelley if you’re desperate here. There is some upside if he further takes over the early-down work and widens the playing time gap with Jackson, but it could just as easily go the other direction.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I would lean towards playing Higgins if I have him, but the re-emergence of AJ Green has made him a bit more of a volatile play. Higgins saved his day with a 4^th-quarter touchdown last week, but the 5 targets he saw come his way were the fewest he’s seen since week 1. Tennessee has been carved up by opposing wide receivers, allowing the 4^th-most points per game to the position, but it’s Tyler Boyd who will have the easiest matchup in this one again slot corner Chris Jackson. Jackson is a 7^th-round rookie who has been forced into a starting role and has a 29.9 coverage grade (scale from 0-100) from Pro Football Focus. Higgins still has easy starter upside in a game that could be a shootout, but there is some downside if he doesn’t get in the end zone.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 8: @Cle.): If there was ever a week where Ruggs is going to look like a good option, it’s this one. He faces a Cleveland defense that has surrendered the 2^nd-most WR points per game and ranks 25^th in pass defense DVOA. The only thing holding him back is his lack of volume. Ruggs hasn’t seen more than 3 targets come his way in a game since week 1, but he didn’t let that stop him from going for 118 yards and a score against the Chiefs two weeks ago. At some point the Raiders have to give their number 1 receiver more opportunities. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week, and the matchup makes me a little more inclined to take a chance on this being a boom week. He’s a very interesting option for DFS tournaments at $4,900 on DraftKings.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NO): Allen Robinson is still sitting out of practice with a concussion as of Thursday, so Sunday’s game may be a big opportunity for Mooney. Mooney saw his highest snap share of the season in week 7, and he’s averaged 6.5 targets per game over the last 4 games. He almost posted a huge game in week 7, but Nick Foles just missed hitting him for a long TD to beat a Rams’ zero blitz on Monday. Robinson has averaged 10 targets per game this season, so if he misses this game Mooney will be in line for an obvious bump in volume. The Saints have a middling WR defense, allowing the 13^th-most WR points per game. Mooney should get serious consideration as a WR3 option this week if A-Rob doesn’t play. He would be a chalky play in DFS in that scenario at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 8: @Chi.): If you’re considering Callaway, you’ll need to monitor the status of Michael Thomas ahead of this game. If Thomas plays, Callaway would move to the ‘Rookies to Sit’ portion of the column. If Thomas is out, Callaway becomes an intriguing PPR WR3 option with Emmanuel Sanders also still sidelined battling a symptomatic case of Covid-19. Thomas did return to practice on Thursday, but his status is still up in the air. Callaway has played more than 65% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks, and in those games he has averaged 8 targets, 6 catches, and 54.5 yards. The Bears are a stingy defense against WRs, allowing the 4^th-fewest points per game to the position, but Drew Brees has a way of finding his guys. I think he would finish not too far off what he did last week if Thomas is out again.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): When Courtland Sutton went down for the year, it was assumed it would be Jeudy who would step into a WR1 role for the Broncos, but that hasn’t been the case so far. Tim Patrick has cemented himself into that role instead with Jeudy serving as more of a secondary option. The rookie has just 13 targets over the last 3 games, and has turned them into 6 catches for 113 yards and a TD. This week’s opponent, the Chargers, allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. With Jeudy spending a lot of time in the slot, he should at least avoid the toughest Charger CB Casey Heyward. It’ll be Patrick who draws that matchup, but this game won’t be a picnic for Jeudy. He should still see a handful of targets, but he’s not an option you should be relying on unless forced to in a deeper league.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Week 7 was a sobering reminder of just how low Lamb’s floor will be without Dak Prescott under center. This isn’t going to be the dynamic passing game it was early in the season, and Lamb will need volume to return productive games. Lamb gets the best matchup of the Dallas WRs, facing off with slot corner Cre’Von LeBlanc while Amari Cooper is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, but with Ben DiNucci under center you should be dropping expectations pretty low. Philly gives up the 12^th-most WR points per game, but Lamb is no more than a floor PPR flex play this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 8: @LV): Bryant made the most of Austin Hooper’s appendectomy last weekend by getting into the end zone twice against the Bengals. He played 77% of the offensive snaps and looks like the #1 tight end as long as Hooper is out. The Raiders haven’t been especially giving to tight ends, allowing the 14^th-fewest TE points per game, but in the last 2 games they’ve allowed Travis Kelce to put up 8-108-1 and Gronk to put up 5-62-1. They also are pretty bad as a pass defense in general, ranking 29^th in pass defense DVOA. Bryant should be an enticing TE streaming option as the lead TE in an offense that likes to utilize the position and has an implied total of more than 28 points this week. Another top-10 TE finish wouldn’t be a surprise.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Tua will make his first career start on Sunday, and it comes in a less than ideal matchup. The Rams have allowed the 6^th-fewest QB points per game, and any defense that boasts Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey isn’t a great one to make your first start against. There is some upside here. The Rams have allowed Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Allen to each throw for 3+ TDs and 250+ yards against them, and Tua is in the same realm talent-wise as Burrow and Herbert.  There are easier matchups coming for Tua. I’d leave him sidelined this week unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB or Superflex league.

QB Ben DiNucci, DAL (Wk. 8: @Phi.): I’d avoid DiNucci unless he is the only available option for you. He had a sterling senior season at James Madison in 2019, but he was mediocre at Pitt before that. The NFL is a huge jump in competition level, and we’ve seen over the last couple weeks that the Dallas o-line is a mess right now. There are a couple positives for the rookie. He does have an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, he has the wheels to escape the inevitable heat he’ll feel in the pocket (he averaged over 500 yards rushing per season in 2 years at JMU), and Philly isn’t a fearsome QB defense. Philly has allowed the 16^th-most QB points per game despite facing the 2^nd-easiest QB schedule in the league so far. Despite all that, I expect DiNucci to look like a deer in the headlights at times and wouldn’t trust him in any fantasy formats this week. If Dallas had any way to avoid playing him, they would take it.

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 8: @KC): Perine has been playing as the lead back for the Jets for two weeks now, out-snapping Frank Gore 81-to-41 over that span, but Gore is getting more of the opportunities. Gore has 22 carries and 4 targets in those games, and Perine has 18 carries and 6 targets. The Chiefs are as heavy a favorite as you’ll ever see in an NFL game, so the Jets may have to abandon the run pretty early on. There is a chance that Perine gets some receiving work in garbage time, but with the Jets implied total of 14.5, this is an offense to avoid for the most part (especially the running backs). You could roll Perine out there if you’re desperate, but you’ll be better off looking for a higher upside option.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Dallas may be forced into a prominent role this week with Chris Carson likely out and Travis Homer banged up as well. If both sit this week, Carlos Hyde will serve as the early down back and Dallas will work as the third-down guy and receiving back. This isn’t the best matchup to roll out a guy who will serve mainly as a receiving back. The 49ers haven’t allowed any running back this year to get to 4 receptions, and only two backs have reached 20 receiving yards against them. Dallas played 12 snaps last week and handled zero rushing attempts. That won’t lead him to a productive fantasy game this week.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 8: @Mia.): Until we see Akers start to play more, there’s no way to justify putting him in your lineup. He’s been on the field for just 4 snaps in the last two weeks. Akers would need an injury ahead of him or a blowout on the scoreboard to get into the game. The Dolphins do rank dead last in run defense DVOA, but they excel in pass defense and should at a minimum stay in the game.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Aaron Jones probably returns this week, but even if he doesn’t Dillon touched the ball just 5 times last week with Jones out. Jamaal Williams worked as the clear lead back. It does seem silly that the Packers used a second-round pick on Dillon but are so unwilling to put him on the field. Minnesota is a middle-of-the-pack run defense, but even if this were a great matchup Dillon doesn’t play enough to be trusted.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 8: @Bal.): What a change a couple weeks have made for Claypool. Two weeks ago he was the talk of the league after a 4-touchdown breakout game. Last Sunday he saw just one target and finished the day with negative yards. He’s bound to be better than that this week. The Steelers won’t hold anything back against the Ravens, and Claypool has been one of the best playmakers on the team. I’m sure there will be a few shot plays drawn up for the rookie, but with Diontae Johnson back on the field Claypool basically functions as a part-time WR3. In his 3 healthy games, Johnson has averaged nearly 13 targets per game (31% target share). In those 3 games, Claypool has averaged 2 targets. You should steer clear unless you’re desperate this week. Diontae did get a little banged up at the end of the Titans’ game. It sounds like he should be fine, but if he is unexpectedly out Claypool becomes a high upside WR3.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Peoples-Jones made a spectacular game-winning TD catch last Sunday after Odell Beckham exited with what turned out to be a torn ACL. It was an exciting moment for the rookie, and may be the first truly big catch he’s made since high school or earlier. He’s always had tantalizing potential but was never a consistent performer at Michigan. Some people expect DPJ to assume a bigger role in the offense with Beckham out, but I would pump the brakes at least a little bit. Rashard Higgins is the guy who becomes an immediate starter, and Cleveland uses their 2-tight end set as a base formation. There will be more playing time for DPJ, but that will probably mean he’ll be playing 40-50% of the offensive snaps going forward. Vegas is a burnable pass defense, ranking 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but if I’m taking a shot on a Browns wide receiver this week Peoples-Jones is third in line behind Jarvis Landry and Higgins. Jones should be rostered in deeper leagues in case he does emerge though.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Davis was a full-time player in week 7 with John Brown out, playing 95% of the offensive snaps, but it didn’t translate into fantasy production. He posted just 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 targets. Brown is practicing in full this week as of Wednesday, and it’s hard to envision Davis being a better play when he goes back to playing less than 50% of the snaps against a talented New England secondary.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Duvernay’s snap share increased for 4 consecutive weeks heading into the team’s bye, but some of that can be attributed to Miles Boykin being banged up. Boykin should be back to full strength after a week off. Duvernay has averaged 7 PPR points per game in the last two games, but Pittsburgh ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA and isn’t really a matchup to target for Duvernay.

Rookies on Byes in Week 8: RB James Robinson, JAX, RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, WR Laviska Shenault, JAX, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 8: @NYG): Tampa enters week 8 as a 10.5-point favorite, and for now it seems that Vaughn has moved into the RB3 spot on the depth chart behind Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. If this game stays close, Vaughn won’t play much. He didn’t play much in a blowout win a week ago against the Raiders, but Tampa led by just 4 with 8 minutes to go and pulled away down the stretch. If they get up earlier in this one, I’d expect Vaughn to get some extended run. The Giants allow the 10^th-most RB points per game. Vaughn is worth a look as a minimum priced option for DFS limited slate tournaments.

RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): With Dallas looking at Ben DiNucci starting at QB, the rout could be on for Philly. Since it became clear that DiNucci would start, the Vegas line has moved almost a touchdown in Philly’s favor. The Eagles are now a 9-point favorite. That could mean a lot of opportunity in the second half for Huntley and Corey Clement. Huntley has the burners to break a long touchdown, and Dallas is tied for the most 20+ yard runs (9) and 40+ yard runs (3) allowed this season. He’s no more than a dart throw for a limited slate DFS tournament or the deepest of leagues, but the opportunity is there for a strong game out of Huntley.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 8: @KC): Mims walked into a much bigger role in his first game than I expected, turning 7 targets into 4-42. He was barely used at all in the 2^nd half of the game, but the entire Jets’ offense called it a day at halftime anyway. This week they have a VERY low projected total at just 14.5 points, and they should be throwing a ton in a very negative game script. Breshad Perriman looks like he’ll be out this week, and Jamison Crowder could be as well. Mims will be the de facto WR1 if both guys miss this game. The Chiefs are a tough WR matchup, allowing the 5^th-fewest points per game to the position, but the ball has to go somewhere. Mims costs little more than the minimum on DraftKings, and you could make a case for starting him if you need a fill-in in a deep league. It’s easy to envision him topping the production he put up in his debut, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a TD in this one.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 8: @NYG): Tyler Johnson has had a nice stretch over the past 3 weeks, with 60 yards or a touchdown in each game, and he gets a fortuitous opportunity this week. Antonio Brown will be ready to go for week 9, so this may be the last chance he gets as a rookie to make his mark, and Chris Godwin will miss Sunday’s game with a broken finger. The last time Godwin missed a game, Johnson played 79% of the snaps and finished with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. The Giants have allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are certainly ahead of Johnson in the target pecking order this week, but Johnson might legitimately be #3. He’s a fill-in option in really deep leagues, and in-play for DFS tournaments at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): While Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are dealing with Casey Heyward and Desmond King respectively, Hamler will get to face off with Michael Davis. Davis has allowed the highest QB rating against, and the most yards per target into his coverage of any of the Chargers starting corners. In the 3 games he’s played, Hamler has averaged 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt, and could see a couple extra opportunities come his way with the tougher individual matchups for Patrick and Jeudy. KJ has enough speed to break a long TD, and he may be worth a DFS dart throw at just $3,600 on DraftKings.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Reagor is back at practice this week and seems likely to be activated for week 8’s matchup with the Cowboys. I don’t think this is an ideal week to get him into your fantasy lineups, but if he’s available on the wire in a deeper league, he’s a guy you should target. The Eagles are light on offensive weapons right now outside of Travis Fulgham, and Reagor can be a game breaker. The matchup this week is a good one on paper, with Dallas allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game, but this one could be over by halftime with Dallas starting an unheralded rookie QB. If you want to wager that Jalen makes an impact while the game is still competitive, the best place to do that would be in a DFS tournament. Reagor costs just $3,600 on DraftKings this week.

TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): Okwuegbunam didn’t play a single snap in the first 4 games of the season, but he’s announced his presence in a big way over the last two weeks. He’s an athletic weapon who clearly still has good chemistry with his college QB Drew Lock. Albert has played just 52 snaps in the last two weeks, and had the ball come his way on 13 of them. Noah Fant returned from injury last week, and the rookie still saw 7 targets and caught every one of them for 60 yards. This is a guy who shouldn’t be on your dynasty waiver wire, and would make for an intriguing dart throw this week in DFS tournaments at just $2,800 on DraftKings. The Chargers allow the 12^th-most TE points per game.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NO): Kmet has largely been an afterthought for fantasy players this season, serving as the Bears TE3 behind Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. Kmet’s still not a guy you can trust in season-long lineups, but it appears he may have pulled even with Harris on the depth chart, playing more snaps than the veteran for the first time this season last Monday. In the first 4 games of the season, Kmet was targeted just 3 times and turned them into 1 catch for 12 yards. He finally broke through with a touchdown in week 6, but I chalked it up to a fluke. He followed that up with another 2 catches for 45 yards in week 7. I know those aren’t ‘startable’ fantasy numbers, but he is heading in the right direction and the Saints have allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game this year. New Orleans has given up 30+ yard catches to little-used tight ends Foster Moreau and Jesse James this season, and let Marcedes Lewis in the end zone as well. Kmet will cost the minimum on DraftKings, and if there was any week to take a chance on Kmet having a surprisingly good game, this is the one to do it. The possible absence of Allen Robinson would free up some targets, and a couple of those could find their way to Cole.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Over the years, the "third-year breakout" WR has turned into the "second-year breakout". Last season featured a great bunch of rookies that broke out right away. These are 5 guys we know well from their productive rookie seasons - all with WR1 upside, over 150 fpts, and 2+ pts/touch over the last year, along with a couple of guys on the bubble.

Justin Jefferson (ADP WR7)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 125 targets Jefferson had 88 receptions for 1400 yards and 7 TDs. 1 fumble. 230.2 fpts, 2.58 pts/touch. 

Jefferson’s 2020 season was certainly the ceiling of what you can expect from any rookie performance. With his ADP where it is this year, he’s being drafted as though he will repeat last year’s performance. While it’s hard to see Jefferson improving on his points per touch number or his yardage number, there is a little bit of room to increase his targets and TDs. If you are not put off by the vaccine disconnect between the locker room and the head coach in Minnesota, then by all means, Jefferson deserves to be drafted as a top 10 WR.

CeeDee Lamb (ADP WR12)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 111 targets Lamb racked up 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 TDs. 10 rushes for 82 yards, and 1 TD. 2 fumbles. 180.7 fpts, 2.15 pts/touch.

In 2020, Lamb did not record a 100-yard game once Dak Prescott went down for the season. He did, however, score 3 of his 5 touchdowns, so his knack for finding the end zone really has me encouraged. This season he will be the #1 WR on the Cowboys from week 1, so an increase in his targets should be a given, and his yardage should really get a healthy boost with Dak throwing the ball all season long. Lamb finished as the WR20 last year, so his bump in ADP this season seems to be just right. The only thing that would keep me from drafting him is that he will probably wind up going even earlier due to the Hard Knocks effect giving him an artificial boost.

Brandon Aiyuk (ADP WR23)

2020 Stats: 12 games, on 96 targets Aiyuk totaled 60 receptions for 748 yards and 5 TDs. 6 rushes for 77 yards, and 2 TDs. 154.5 fpts, 2.34 pts/touch.

Aiyuk is a little more volatile week to week compared to the previous two players, and I attribute this to the dominant running game in SF. His points per touch is really stunning but was boosted by his rushing stats. Last season he had 3 receptions or fewer in 5 of his 12 games - only one of those games produced a double-digit performance. This season, with Kittle back in the mix, as well as a top-tier rookie RB in Trey Sermon, I’m not certain that Aiyuk can overcome the volatility he saw last year. I expect some of his games to feature very little usage, however, if he is in line for 80 receptions (instead of last year’s 60) under a full load of games, that should bring him easily into the realm of a top 20 WR (last year’s WR20 scored 180 points, Lamb).

Tee Higgins (ADP WR24)

2020 Stats: 16 games, with 108 targets Higgins had 67 receptions for 908 yards and 6 TDs. 1 fumble. 161.1 fpts, 2.24 pts/touch.

Higgins has another rookie joining his WR group this year, but Ja’Marr Chase has struggled mightily in the preseason and will need time to adjust to the NFL, leaving Higgins and Boyd to carry the load in Cincy. Higgins did not see much of a drop in production once Burrow went down last season, so I would expect to see a similar stat line this season compared to last year, with a modest improvement for being a second-year player and much more familiar with the offense they’re running. Last year, Higgins finished as the WR30, so his ADP of WR24 is about as optimistic as I am willing to go for him this year. If you can get him in that spot or a few lower, then go for but, but I do not recommend reaching above WR24 for Higgins.

Chase Claypool (ADP WR25)

2020 Stats: G16, from 109 targets Claypool put up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Also had 2 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles. 183.9 fpts, 2.55 pts/touch.

Claypool’s 11 total TDs last year led all rookies in this group, thus boosting his visibility in fantasy and certainly helping out his points per touch. Expecting Claypool to reproduce his touchdown total is wishful thinking at best, so let’s assume there’s a small regression there. Claypool finished as the WR19 in points for last year, so dropping him down to WR25 on the ADP tracks with this regression. Ideally, for him, the Steelers offense will see an improvement - they were 12th in points and 24th in yards, so again, their scoring outpaced their actual offense and some kind of regression is to be expected. Best case scenario, the yardage increases, and the points do not dip by much at all. 

Close but no cigar… guys that aren’t quite there yet.

Jerry Jeudy (ADP WR30)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 113 targets Jeudy brought in 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 TDs. 2 fumbles. 131.6fpts, 2.53 pts/touch.

Jeudy actually saw a consistent amount of targets last season, with only 1 game being below 4 targets. His 16+ yards per reception are what help keep his points per touch in the elite group, but a catch rate of only 46% severely limited his ceiling in 2020. I expect this to go up with Teddy Bridgewater (66.5% completion rate) as his starting QB. You may look at Bridgewater over Lock as a bad thing for a downfield receiver like Jeudy, but don’t be fooled. In 2020, Bridgewater averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, while Lock was a full yard worse, 6.6 Y/A for his 2020 season. Jeudy will be just fine with Bridgewater (ignore what I said about this on earlier podcasts). Jeudy finished last year as the WR44, so him being drafted all the way up at WR30 shows optimism on the public’s behalf that Jeudy will get the ball in his hands more reliably than last year, and will probably score more touchdowns to boot. He’s a good value at WR30, though I wouldn’t reach past maybe WR28 for him.

Laviska Shenault (ADP WR42)

2020 Stats: G14, on 79 targets Shenault notched 58 receptions for 600 yards and 5 TDs. Also 18 rushes for 91 yards. 128.1 fpts, 1.69 pts/touch.

Shenault definitely trails this group of rookies statistically, coming in way behind the rest in terms of points per touch. He’s also going to be in a new offense with new HC Urban Meyer, and he has Marvin Jones, the Jags FA acquisition, as someone to soak up targets as well. Shenault has yet to fully break out - his career-high is just 86 yards, so it’s certainly possible that we see him take the next step this season. Since he’s got a new QB, a new coach, and a new WR presumably ahead of him in the pecking order, I don’t expect that step forward to be very large. Shenault finished as the WR47 last year, so going at 42 this year looks like good value to me. I wouldn’t mind taking him as high as WR40, though honestly, it’s still anyone’s guess as to what the Jaguars offense will look like after the super vanilla looks they showed us in the preseason.