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Last year, the NFC South were essentially the basement dwellers of the NFL, with none of the teams even reaching .500. There were 22 wins between all 4 teams, Tampa Bay didn't win a single game at home, Carolina had a tie (ugh, the worst). 5 of Atlanta's 6 wins came inside the division, where they went an astounding 5-1. None of the teams had a better point differential than -23! Of course, with all of that being said, Carolina still managed to win a playoff game and had an OK showing in Seattle, for one half. So, enough looking in the past, let's see what these teams have done to make things better!

Carolina Panthers (7-8-1):

Add/Re-sign -

Greg Olsen, TE - 3 year extension

Michael Oher, T, 2 year FA contract, Jonathan Martin, T, claimed from waivers

Ted Ginn Jr., WR, 2 year contract (was on the team in 2013)

Cam Newton, QB, 6 year extension

Devin Funchess, WR - 2nd round pick (#41 overall)

Jarrett Boykin, WR - one year contract

Departures -

DeAngelo Williams, RB - Released, now in PIT

Issues:

Last year, the Panthers were severely lacking at the wide receiver position. Their first round pick in 2014, Kelvin Benjamin, did stand out and show a lot of promise. Even with that, it's clear that this offseason, the plan was to get much better at that position. The Panthers will now feature guys on the outside at 6'4" and 6'5", and should easily pass the 3828 yards they had cumulatively last season.

Cam Newton and Greg Olsen, their most legitimate and consistent threat over the last few years, have been re-signed. Olsen, Funchess and Benjamin will help Cam improve from an off year last season where he was troubled by injury early, and again late in the season. A healthy Cam ought to get at least 4000 yards with an improved receiving core.

Jonathan Stewart is now the clear #1 in Carolina, and we all saw how well that worked out at the end of last year. Over the years, fantasy owners have been constantly burned by the two-headed attack that the Panthers have had, splitting carries between Williams and Stewart. Well, worry no more. Stewart is backed up by Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whittaker, so there's really no stopping him from getting the ball 20-25 times per game. The Panthers are packed with good fantasy potential this season, with 4 and perhaps 5 for sure weekly starters.

New Orleans Saints (7-9):

Add/Re-Sign -

C.J. Spiller, RB - FA, 4 year contract

Mark Ingram, RB - 4 year extension

Departures -

Jimmy Graham, TE - Traded to SEA

Pierre Thomas, RB - Cut

Kenny Stills, WR - Traded to MIA

Issues:

It would appear that the Saints have several issues. Traditionally a pass-first team, they traded away two of their top receiving threats, Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. This has a lot of people scratching their head, trying to figure out what the Saints are thinking. Last year's play selection, the addition of C.J. Spiller and the new contract for Mark Ingram all point to this team shifting their focus to a run-first attitude. The early prediction is that Spiller and Ingram will split carries, which, I suppose, will result in the same guessing game that fantasy owners have been dealing with for years.

Drew Brees will continue to be Drew Brees, that is, he's the guy that's thrown for over 4300 yards the last 9 years in a row, and once again lead the league (tied) in passing yards. He may not approach 5000 yards again, but it's probably a sure thing that he has his 10th straight season over 4000 yards. He will probably be a top 5 fantasy QB and will make use of whoever is there at WR.

Speaking of the WR's, who's left? Marques Colston is past his prime, but will still enter the season as the top guy. Brandin Cooks and Nick Toon both showed promise, and they will likely take another step up in their development, with Drew Brees leading the way. Finally, the question most people have been asking about the Saints all offseason, how do you replace Jimmy Graham? Josh Hill will try, but Drew Brees can't perform miracles, so don't expect one. The only sure fantasy value on this team seems to start with Drew Brees. Brandin Cooks has a good shot at being a solid WR2/3, and it's pretty unclear as to who is going to be worth starting at RB, but they're both worth owning.

Atlanta Falcons (6-10):

Add/Re-Sign -

Jacob Tamme, TE - 2 year contract

Tony Moeaki, TE - 1 year contract

Antone Smith, RB - re-sign 1 year contract

Eric Weems, WR - re-sign 2 year contract

Tevin Coleman, RB - 3rd round pick, #73 overall

Departures -

Steven Jackson, RB - Released

Harry Douglans, WR - Released, now in TEN

Jacquizz Rogers, RB - Signed by Bears

Issues:

The Falcons were only able to win one game outside of their division in 2014, yet still had a chance in week 17 to make the playoffs. The NFL is kinda weird sometimes. So, the Falcons already have a few well established fantasy names on their team that you can count on for 2015. Starting with the WR's, Jones and White are going to continue to dominate the targets on the team. Jones has the potential to finish as a top WR, and White, while getting older, can definitely be a threat and fantasy relevant if he stays healthy. Eric Weems was re-signed as the third WR to replace Harry Douglas, but like Douglas, he won't be relevant unless one of the big two guys goes down.

Matt Ryan finished as the #7 fantasy QB last year, and with the same weapons as last year, he will likely remain in the top 10. They're still trying to find a replacement for Tony Gonzalez. They'll use Tamme and Moeaki this season, with Tamme in a primary role. They won't likely wind up as top 10 fantasy guys, however the potential is there in this offense for big production at that position.

The rushing game has been lacking in Atlanta for the last couple of seasons. This year, it's all about the youth movement. Second year RB Devonta Freeman may sit on top of depth charts, but expect third round pick Tevin Coleman to have a good chance at starting. I'm interested in seeing if they will make more use of Antone Smith, a guy who seemed magical every time he touched the ball last season. Overall, the Falcons have three guys you can count on for reliable fantasy production, and a few spots where you could get a couple of surprise performances.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14):

Add/Re-Sign -

Jameis Winston, QB - First Overall pick in the 2015 draft

Donovan Smith, T - 34th overall pick, will protect Winson's blind side

Tim Wright, TE - Claimed off waivers

Henry Melton, Chris Conte, Major Wright - Lovie Smith is adding a bunch of guys that he used to coach on the Bears

Departures -

Josh McCown, QB - Went to Cleveland

Issues:

Last year the Bucs finished a dismal 2-10, they didn't win a single game at home, and they scored 133 fewer points than their opponents, the 4th worst in the league. So, with all of that in mind, the Bucs are putting their faith in Jameis Winston, their first overall draft pick and hopeful franchise QB. Winston is unlikely to break into the top 10 QB's in his first season (few ever do), but he might be worth keeping around as a backup and for bye weeks. His rushing ability will keep his fantasy floor high.

The Bucs current strength on offense definitely lies at the WR position. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are another tall duo on the outside, something that has become very popular lately in the NFL, and for good reason. Both Evans and Jackson went over 1000 yards each, with Evans scoring 12 times. I expect both of them to break 1000 again this year, but any production further down the depth chart is questionable at best.

Doug Martin has had a tumultuous few seasons in the NFL. He was a rookie phenom, but struggled and was also bit by the injury bug in the next two seasons. He's still in line for the starting job, but he has Bobby Rainey, Mike James and Charles Sims all breathing down his neck. This situation will get fleshed out through the preseason - it's anyone's guess at this point what will happen at RB for the Bucs. The Bucs will go with either Tim Wright or Austin Seferian-Jenkins at TE, but neither are really likely to bust out into relevance in Winston's first year. Overall, stick with the WR's on this team for fantasy relevance, and monitor the rest for waiver wire pickups or bench depth.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

14 Fantasy Points

Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.

7 Wins in a Row

The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season).  Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.

27 Carries

A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore.  The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?

1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards

The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards.  The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.

604 Points

The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.

New Orleans Saints

What’s changed since last year? The Saints have remained pretty steady on offense, with a few minor changes. They acquired Jared Cook at TE, currently ADP 72 (TE7). Cook had his two best receiving yard totals the last two years and he’s moving into an offense that once made epic use of a tight end. He’s got some real potential to be a stand out at a position with very little depth across the league. In the backfield, Mark Ingram has left for Baltimore and the Saints picked up Latavius Murray (ADP 81, RB34) as a change of pace back alongside Alvin Kamara. Murray has at least 6 scores in each of the last 4 seasons and even though TDs aren’t a reliable stat, you can be pretty certain that he will be vulturing a few scores from Kamara.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? There are two young WRs, both drafted in 2018, that I’m keeping an eye on this year on the Saints. Keith Kirkwood (no ADP) seems like he’s still stuck as the WR4. He had over 16 yards per reception last year and found the end zone twice, but he had only 13 catches in 8 games. Kirkwood will be fighting for snaps and is only relevant in the deepest leagues. The best breakout candidate is Tre’Quan Smith (ADP 189, WR65) and his value is perfect as a sleeper. You can take him at the end of a draft, so the investment is minimal. Smith put up a few big games last season, and he might find more action if there’s an injury on the Saints. Still, I’d rather have the 3^rd or 4^th option on a great offense as a bye week replacement over a 1^st or 2^nd option on a bad team.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I’m tempted to just recommend Tre’Quan Smith here, but honestly, his draft value is probably appropriate for the role that he’s slated for this season. I do think that Ted Ginn (ADP 255, WR85) is a better option as a sleeper. He’s likely to wind up available at the end of even the deepest drafts and is basically the WR2 on an outstanding offense. He was banged up last season, but had 53 catches on 70 targets the year before, so clearly Brees likes to look his way.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There’s two guys who I’d love to have on my team, though you’re very unlikely to land both of them. Alvin Kamara (ADP 2, RB2) is a stud and has gone before Barkley in most of the drafts that I’ve done so far this year. Kamara has finished as the 4^th highest scoring RB in each of the last 2 seasons and is the safest of the top tier RBs, in my opinion. Michael Thomas (ADP 12, WR3) is another stud who you can count on for gaudy numbers. His last two seasons he was 8^th in WR points in standard leagues and 6^th in points in PPR leagues. It would be nice to see him get into the end zone a bit more, but his 85% catch rate last season was just absurdly good and it’s hard to ask for improvement on that.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Based on his low ADP, Ted Ginn is likely to be an early season waiver pickup. They have three tough matchups to begin the season, vs Texans, @ Rams and @ Seahawks, so the Saints will need to make good use of all of their weapons if they want to win those games.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Saints traded away a bunch of their picks for 2019 and didn’t select anyone who will be fantasy relevant this season. I would be a terrible host, however, if I didn’t give Shawn a chance to discuss Devine Ozigbo.

Carolina Panthers

What’s changed since last year? The team has parted ways with WR Devin Funchess, who regressed in all statistical categories during a disappointing 2018 campaign. This clears the way for Curtis Samuel to be a regular starter opposite D.J. Moore. More on Samuel in a moment. The Panthers also acquired Chris Hogan, formerly of the Patriots. Hogan basically averages between 55 and 61 targets per year, and that’s over two different teams. I don’t expect much more than that from Hogan, unless there’s injuries ahead of him.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? D.J. Moore (ADP 67, WR28) nearly reached our breakout criteria last season, with 788 yards his rookie season. I think Moore can certainly improve on those numbers as the first option in the passing game this year, and he’s being drafted like someone who will start every week on most fantasy teams. I also like third year WR Curtis Samuel (ADP 97, WR40). He’s improved every year so far and with the departure of Funchess, he’s been moved up the depth chart and should start all season. Both of these guys are not going to go under the radar, so if you see them at good value, I suggest drafting them. Most defenses will be very concerned with stopping Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton, so there should be plenty of opportunity for the WRs to break loose.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? The fantasy relevance on the Panthers isn’t too deep, but I’d argue that Greg Olsen (ADP 144, TE15) is a worthy sleeper pick. Olsen needs to stay healthy to be relevant, of course, but when he is, his talent puts him just a hair behind the tier 1 TEs. If you’re drafting a TE at the end of the draft like this, you’re probably comfortable with streaming TEs. This is your insurance against any injury to Olsen. His ceiling is much higher than anyone being drafted near him, you just need to deal with his floor of “instantly broken foot”.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Last year’s RB revelation, Christian McCaffrey (ADP 3, RB3), is a lot of people’s top choice this season. In PPR, he finished 10^th in 2017 and 2^nd in 2018. He’s not missed a game in his career so far (this will be his third season), but his touches did nearly double last year to 327. Usually, RBs can go a couple of years with this kind of workload, so I feel confident that he can remain healthy AND will get a ton of touches this season.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? The Panthers DST (ADP 268, DST25) and kicker Graham Gano (ADP 295, K25) are both ranked rather low at their respective positions, but have been traditionally reliable and will definitely be streaming options throughout the season. TE Ian Thomas (ADP 311, TE33) is also a guy to keep an eye on, especially if you wind up drafting Greg Olsen’s broken foot. Thomas looked OK during his rookie season filling in for Olsen, and aside from a 7 game stretch in the middle of the season where he had just 1 catch, he was as good as any other streaming TE option.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Panthers do not have any rookies at skill positions that are going to be fantasy relevant this season. Will Grier has competed for the backup job behind Cam, but hasn’t impressed anyone. Jordan Scarlett and Elijah Holyfield will compete to be the backup to McCaffrey.

Atlanta Falcons

What’s changed since last year? The Falcons have had a dual backfield attack for the last couple of seasons, but Tevin Coleman has moved out west, leaving Devonta Freeman (ADP 31, RB16) as the main back and Ito Smith (ADP 166, RB56) as the change of pace guy. I suspect that this winds up as more of a Freeman dominated backfield, with Smith getting just 5-8 touches per game at most. The rest of the Falcons offense looks much like it did last season, which finished 6^th in total yards, despite (or maybe because of) being 29^th in average starting field position.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Well, he’s not going to surprise anyone, as he very nearly reached our breakout threshold last season, but Calvin Ridley (ADP 53, WR22) is a second year WR with all the tools to be a top 10 WR alongside Julio Jones. He’s the younger half of what is arguably one of the best WR combos in the league. With 92 targets last year and 10 TDs, he will certainly see a lot of passes thrown his way this season, though reproducing that touchdown total will be difficult. I like Ridley if he falls to you around the 60^th pick – just don’t reach for him expecting him to have double digit touchdowns again.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I like Austin Hooper (ADP 127, TE12) as a guy who you can pick up way late in the draft and will probably be able to start most of the season. He’s had a solid few years, improving his stats every season as he goes along. Last year, he had 71 receptions on 88 targets – numbers that only a few TEs can count on. I expect him to get at least as much work with Dirk Koetter as the Falcons OC. Koetter is the guy who made OJ Howard a big name in fantasy, and made us all learn just who the heck Cameron Brate is. He even made Marcedes Lewis a pro-bowler back in 2010.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The same guy who you’ve tried to draft every year from the Atlanta Falcons. It’s Quintorris Lopez (Julio) Jones (ADP 14, WR4), of course! Julio, despite being panned for not making it to the end zone until week 8, finished the season with a league-high 1677 yards and had 8 TDs. He broke the 100 yard mark 10 times last season. And perhaps the best thing to look forward to – the Falcons don’t play outside until November 17^th in Charlotte, not a notorious bad weather city. Their only other outdoor games are in San Francisco and Tampa Bay, so I expect to see big things from the Falcons offense this season.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Since the Falcons offense trends towards high volume for a few guys, I would keep an eye on these two players for waiver pickups, especially if guys ahead of them go down. Ito Smith (ADP 166, RB 56) and Mohamed Sanu (ADP 175, WR61) are both likely to not produce enough on their own, but could find themselves with a lot of playing time if there’s injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. If you’re in a deeper league, it’s certainly possible that they are both drafted, so keep an eye out.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Falcons did not draft any fantasy relevant skill position players this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers...coming soon.

Here's three games with interesting fantasy matchups that you can use to help make your lineup decisions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints - Let’s try this one more time, shall we. Last week I predicted that the Saints would be giving up a lot of points to the Cowboys, and the entire game featured one touchdown and 5 field goals. I do, however, have more faith in the new Bucs offense than the new-ish Cowboys one. Tampa has scored 96 points in the last 10 quarters of football. Jameis Winston only has one turnover during that time and WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are putting up huge numbers. Of course you’re starting them, but I think you need to get Jameis Winston in your lineup as well, since the Saints are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs.

I also think that Ronald Jones is a guy you can fire up. His snap % has gone from 12 to 31 to 49 in the last 3 weeks and he had 20 touches in last week’s game. On the other side, Tampa is in the top 10 giving up points to opposing QBs and WRs, but with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, I’m still only starting Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara on the Saints.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals -  Two teams and 8 games between them and nary a win in sight. The Cards did sniff it in Week 1 with a tie, but these guys are a combined 0-7-1. Both teams lost by 3 scores last week, and at this point it’s just about pride. Let’s start with the Cardinals RB David Johnson, who has a spectacular matchup this week – basically guaranteed double digit points in a standard league. How can I say this? Well in 4 games, the Bengals have had 7 RBs score at least 13 points against them, again, standard scoring. Those 7 RBs are basically averaging 100 yards and a TD each. This should open things up for Kyler Murray and he will likely find Larry Fitzgerald early and often. Fitz will be boosted by the absence of Christian Kirk. Andy Isabella will see more work, but it’ll be on the outside, according the Kliff Kingsbury.

Regardless, the Cardinals run far more 4-WR sets than the rest of the league and there will be a lot of mouths to feed on offense, so I only like Fitzgerald and Johnson as solid fantasy starts, but they should be tremendous against the crappy Bengals. I also like Tyler Eifert for the Bengals, as the Cardinals have given up an absurd about of points to opposing tight ends. The Cardinals are giving up over 19 points per game to opposing TEs, while the next closest team is giving up only 12. This is historically bad, start Eifert!

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Traditionally, this is a defensive struggle, but that’s not likely on Sunday. The Ravens have given up over 500 yards of offense the last two weeks. The Steelers finally figured out their offense as led by Mason Rudolph, and the name of the game is efficiency. The Steelers are in the top 10 for most points against at WR and RB while Baltimore is in the top 11 of each of those stats. Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to yards given up. The Steelers gave up 85 points in the first 3 weeks and the Ravens have given up 73 in just the last two! This is shaping up to be a solid fantasy matchup for both sides.

For the Steelers, I like James Conner of course, though his available may be up in the air, so keep an eye on injury reports. Jaylen Samuels proved very valuable and could have a huge role if Conner doesn’t play. Both Conner and Samuels had 8 targets and 10 carries, so they’ve both got value as starters, especially in a PPR league. Juju has to get involved sooner or later, so keep him in this week because it’s clear that the Steelers still love him. I also like Diontae Johnson if you’ve got bye week or injury troubles. 6 targets and 6 catches in an offense with lots of short passes is a good sign, especially in a PPR league.

For the Ravens, I like Lamar Jackson to continue to dominate, and hell, he’s the #1 fantasy player so far this year, so of course you’re starting him. Even when the team is losing, he finds a way to put up those garbage points. Last week, Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown did not put up the big numbers you want to see, but they both had lots of targets and that will continue all year long. Start them both along with Mark Ingram and don’t be surprised if both teams put up over 30 points in this division matchup.