Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

5 TE’s at the Top

Through Sunday in Week 6, the tight end spot in fantasy has been quite a slog. There’s been no dominant player at the position, though there have been a few pleasant surprises. Going into this week, there were 5 players between 49 and 51 points on the season. Unfortunately, it looks like Will Dissly, who led the pack by a very slim margin, could be done for the season with an Achilles tear. That leaves us with the newest break-out TE Austin Hooper as our leader. Hooper took advantage of a Cardinals defense that is giving up an absurd amount points to opposing TEs. Hooper has now finished as a top 3 TE in 3 of 6 weeks so far this season. Rounding out the top 5 are the always reliable Travis Kelce, Evan Engram (who missed a game, so his per-game average is still pretty good), and finally the Ravens break-out star, Mark Andrews.

78 Passing Yards

Jared Goff had a whopping 78 passing yards on Sunday, a career low for him, which roughly equates to $20,833 per yard gained through the air this week. The Rams had a particularly bad game against the still undefeated 49ers. They scored a TD on their opening drive and then did nothing for the rest of the game. The fact that they gained all their yards on the ground that first drive seems like a bad omen for the way the rest of the game went for them. It’s hard to tell where this team’s fantasy potential is headed. On one hand, this offense was a juggernaut last season and now have scored at least 27 points in 4 of 6 games this season. On the other hand, you have Jared Goff, who has thrown more picks than touchdowns in the last 4 weeks. Aside from this week, the Rams are still putting up decent fantasy points with their big players, so I wouldn’t ditch them all yet, but I would consider who I start against the 49ers going forward.

116 Passing Yards in One Drive

The Chiefs haven’t done a lot of winning the last couple weeks, but Patrick Mahomes is still doing amazing things on the field. In their first drive, thanks to several penalties, Mahomes managed the stunning mathematical trick of throwing for 116 yards in one drive. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they only gained another 157 yards through the air the remainder of the game. They only had about 20 minutes in time of possession for the entire game, and clearly this has become the (rather obvious) method for defeating the Chiefs. Last week, they had just under 23 minutes in time of possession. Against the Texans, the Chiefs only ran the ball 11 times despite never being down more than 7 points in the game. On the other side, the Texans ran the ball 41 times to go along with 42 passing attempts. Balance, my friends, is key in all things.

27 D/ST Fantasy Points

With another 27 fantasy points this week, the New England Patriots D/ST squad has just dominated fantasy football. Their 27 points made them the 8^th highest scoring “player” in Week 6. On the season, the defense and special teams have combined for 5 TDs and have 16 turnovers in just 6 games. They’re second in the league with 25 sacks and have given up only 3 touchdowns on defense all season. Their 127 fantasy points on the season make them the 9^th highest scoring entity in fantasy football this season, behind only one non-QB, Christian McCaffrey. Compared to other D/STs, they are 52 points ahead of the second highest scoring team and have more than doubled up the 4^th highest scoring team.

36.5 Fantasy Points in Week 6

The squeaky wheel does often get the grease, though sometimes it takes a few weeks to apply it. This week, Stefon Diggs had a monster game, scoring 3 TDs and 167 yards on 7 receptions, adding 18 rushing yards on 2 carries just for fun. This more than doubles his season total in points – he had just 27.3 through 5 games going into Week 6. Since the Vikings rough defeat in Chicago Week 4, they have put up 66 points in just two games. During that time, Kirk Cousins has 2 300+ yard games to go along with 6 TDs and just one pick. It turns out that the Vikings can’t just run the ball all game, like they did early in the season. They need to pass it as well, thus giving their offense balance. Déjà vu, no?

It is that time of year again. The time when fantasy football players start waking up from a long Winter slumber and taking a look at NFL rosters with a mix of surprise, excitement, and terror. In this two-part feature, I will take you on a trip through every team in the NFL to highlight some of the major fantasy-relevant offseason personnel moves. We'll start with the AFC. From Stefon Diggs to Melvin Gordon, quite a few big names have seen changes of scenery this offseason. 

AFC East

New England Patriots: Obviously, Tom Brady skipping town to join the Buccaneers is the big news here, but an arguably more interesting turn of events is that 2^nd year QB Jarrett Stidham is now the incumbent starter. The Pats did not select a QB in the draft, but there are a few veterans floating around in free agency: Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, and Blake Bortles among them, but it is not likely that New England moves in that direction. Mohamed Sanu was not cut as some expected, leaving last year’s cast of characters plus recent acquisition from the Chiefs, Damiere Byrd, as well as 2020 draft pick Devin Asiasi as this season’s primary pass-catchers.

Buffalo Bills: The Bills brought in some talent from out of town in Stefon Diggs, a major offensive gain for Josh Allen’s offense. They also let Frank Gore walk in free agency, getting signed by the Jets in what will likely be Gore’s last residency (how many times have we said that before?).

New York Jets: Frank Gore is back together again with Adam Gase to find some way to string together a few more 100-yard games as depth to incumbent RB Le’Veon Bell, and wide receiver Breshad Perriman was signed from the Bucs. This helps, but they will still need more help at the receiver position with Robby Anderson departing.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins acquired RBs Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, and drafted Tua Tagovailoa to be the QB of the future. Maybe it is looking up in Miami?

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Traded TE Hayden Hurst to the Falcons for two draft picks this year, including the 2^nd round pick they used to select RB J.K. Dobbins who will be groomed as the feature back in Baltimore. The rest is business as usual for a team that did not need much help on offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The surging Steelers defense can’t win games by itself, and so Pittsburgh added more offensive components to try and compete in 2020, bringing in TE Eric Ebron and drafting both RB Anthony McFarland Jr and WR Chase Claypool as high-upside depth at those positions who will both likely see regular snaps in their rookie years.

Cleveland Browns: Case Keenum was solidified as the Browns’ backup with a three-year contract, and Cleveland signed former Falcons TE Austin Hooper for a stunning $44 million dollar contract with $23 million guaranteed. Good luck, Cleveland – you will need it.

Cincinnati Bengals: Clearly the big conversation centers around #1 draft pick Joe Burrow becoming the new signal caller in Cincinnati. Out with Andy Dalton. The Bengals also drafted a new target in WR Tee Higgins.

AFC South

Houston Texans: It has been quite the offseason for Bill O’Brien and the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins is now an Arizona Cardinal, and in his place the Texans acquired Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. David Johnson will take over duties as the primary ball carrier from departing free agent RBs Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde.

Tennessee Titans: Delanie Walker and Dion Lewis were cut, carving a more prominent role for incumbent TE Jonnu Smith and the Titans drafted RB Darrynton Evans in order to try and bolster what is a very thing depth chart behind featured running back Derrick Henry. Newly re-signed Ryan Tannehill will try to come close to the high bar he set for himself in the 2019 season.

Indianapolis Colts: Washed up? Ha! The Colts signed Philip Rivers to lead the offense in 2020 for a $25 million price tag. If he fails, they will go right back to Jacoby Brissett. Indianapolis also drafted RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman who should immediately slot into the starting lineup. Should we mention former Bears TE Trey Burton? I guess.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Needing a starting TE, the Jaguars signed former Bengal Tyler Eifert, which will reunite him with OC Jay Gruden in Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew will retain the starting role, although the Jaguars did draft QB Jake Luton but it would be a surprise to see him making starts this season.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: Fantasy football managers should be excited about the Chiefs drafting RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who will have an immediate role in the offense. Kansas City also acquired TE Ricky Seals-Jones and some made some other depth positional signings, but not much else has changed on offense. Why mess with a good thing, right?

Denver Broncos: Melvin Gordon is now a Bronco, which likely minimizes the fantasy value of Phillip Lindsay and relegates Royce Freeman to a backup role. Starting QB Drew Lock got some new toys in the draft in WRs Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The Broncos have very little excuse not to improve on their 7-9 record from 2019.

Las Vegas Raiders: It is going to be tough to say ‘Las Vegas’ when referring to the Raiders but we will do our best. Henry Ruggs III was the fastest receiver at the combine, so clearly the Raiders had to draft him. Regardless of how that pans out it will improve the talent in the receiver room in Las Vegas. The Raiders also acquired Marcus Mariota and Jason Witten, but maybe the latter signing was just so that Gruden could have someone closer to his age to hang out with on the sideline.

Los Angeles Chargers: Let us start with replacing Philip Rivers at QB. Ok, insert Justin Herbert. The Chargers also drafted RB Joshua Kelley who should get some work right away behind starter Austin Ekeler, and WR K.J. Hill who I have seen talked up as one of the steals of the 2020 draft. We’ll see Chargers, we’ll see.

The secret to a good offense is balance. But what rings true in the NFL is not always true for fantasy football. Sometimes a team with a huge imbalance can be very helpful for fantasy - or at least tell us what we should be avoiding. Let’s have a look at teams who are on both sides of the run/pass balance sheet. First up is the team that is running the ball far, far more than any other team in the league.

Chicago Bears - Run 67%, Pass 33% - The Bears are tied for the fewest plays per game in the league, so it’s not as if this offensive imbalance can be exploited all that much. What we do know for sure are two things. One, that this can’t last forever. Eventually, they will have to throw the ball. The Bears run the ball 10% more than the next highest team on the run-heavy side. That’s just absurd. Fields has only one game with double-digit completions, and that tops out at 11. He’s bound to throw the ball more, eventually. Until then, he’s a sit in all formats. Along with any pass catcher on the Bears.

Justin Fields has the same number of rushes and completions this season. The Bears are running the ball this much because their offense is basically anemic. The second thing we know is that there is only one fantasy player worth starting on the Bears, Khalil Herbert. The silver lining we can take away from the analysis of this imbalance is, I suppose, that we can feel confident in starting a backup RB while David Montgomery is out. When he comes back, it’s all going to be thrown into chaos again.

General Analysis - Though it’s not a hard rule, it can generally be interpreted that running the ball too much in this league is a sign of a bad offense. Only 3 of the teams that run the ball more than 50% of the time are in the top 10 of scoring. In the NFL, you need to have a good run game to be good, but you need to be good enough to not have to use it that often. The most balanced team - the one closest to a 50/50 split - is the Tennessee Titans (50.7% run/49.3% pass), and there are only 6 teams that run the ball more than they do. This is clearly a passing league.

Let’s look at the best offense in the league for a moment. The Detroit Lions have scored 140 points in 4 games, and are right smack in the middle of the pack when it comes to run/pass. That doesn’t mean they are 50/50 - they are actually 42.4% run and 57.6% pass. They just have found the best balance that works in today’s NFL. They are 16th in run% and 17th in pass%. The second-best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are just two spots away from the Lions, leaning towards the pass. Both teams have found the sweet spot of the run-to-pass ratio that is keeping offenses honest and keeping their teams scoring points - the only two in the league to be averaging over 30 points per game.

New York Jets - Run 30.8%, Pass 69.2% - Now we look to the Jets, the team with the biggest imbalance in the league. The Jets throw the ball 4% more than any other team. Despite this imbalance, they are in much better shape than the Bears. The Jets are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring points (18th), and actually have the 8th most yards from scrimmage in the league. Even though they’re imbalanced, they are still moving the ball a lot since their imbalance comes due to the pass, instead of the run. Passing plays just rack up more stats and that’s a fact. The Jets, with their 5.5 NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt) are only 24th in the league. It’s still higher than the Bears 5.2 Y/A running the ball, which is a shiny 4th in the league!

Now that we’ve established that passing the ball is intrinsically more valuable than running the ball, even when you are at either extreme, what fantasy insight can we glean on this Jets team? Well, they do have tons of completions - the second-highest number of receptions (tied for 3rd in the league), so there’s lots of value in PPR formats. Unfortunately, they do spread the ball around a ton. Already, 6 players have at least 15 receptions through 4 games. Their leading pass catcher, Tyler Conklin, has 21 catches on the season and is tied for 21st in receptions - I do love fun coincidences like that one. The Jets like to spread it around so much, they even have 4 players who have thrown pass completions already this season. 

Perhaps if the Jets had fewer offensive players to choose from, they would have one or two stand out in fantasy. As it stands, the Jets only have one player who is in the top 10 of points at his position, Tyler Conklin, currently the TE10. The other high water marks are Breece Hall (RB) and Garrett Wilson (WR), both at 19 of their respective positions. I believe that perhaps the most accurate conclusion we can draw from our two examples thus far is that it’s not a good idea to have fantasy players from any team on either extreme of the run/pass split. At least the Jets are running 70 plays per game and have fantasy value based on their expected volume alone, though there are no studs to be seen.

Buffalo Bills - Run 36.3%, Pass 63.7% - Finally, let us take a look at an offense that is unbalanced AND performing well. The Bills are 5th in the league in terms of total points with 114, and they are 6th when it comes to being a pass-heavy offense. The Bills are obviously a good, talented team, whereas the previous two are not. Take a look at where just a few stats can make a world of difference. The Bills have a 6.7 NY/A when passing and are able to squeeze many more fantasy points out of their passing game compared to the Jets, who threw the ball 23 more times, but actually have 2 fewer completions! It’s not about how much you do the thing, it’s about how well you do it.

The Bills are also running the ball efficiently with the time they do run it, probably because defenses have to defend the pass so much. They are gaining 4.8 Y/A, the 11th best in the league, and not that far behind the Bears. Since the best runner on the Bills is Josh Allen, this sort of ruins any chance they have at a candidate for a good fantasy RB. Their best is Devin Singletary, at RB26. They do have Allen all the way up at QB2, and Stefon Diggs at WR2, so it’s clear that their more focused, pass-heavy offense is netting tons of fantasy points.

So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise? First, it’s not going to help being the team that runs the most or passes the most if you don’t have the right players to exploit it. Chances are, you’re just being forced into those situations because you’re a bad team. Second, it’s best to be in the middle of the pack regarding the split (somewhere around 42% run, 58% pass) to find the most offensive success. Third, you need to have all-pro players to really be a predictable offense and still succeed. If you do not have those players, you are going to struggle to find fantasy success. As much as we want our players to dominate touches or carries, your average player is going to be more likely to excel on a more balanced team.