Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an eventful first two weeks. If your fantasy squad hasn’t been bitten by the injury bug yet, count yourself lucky. The list of fantasy starters who have missed and will miss time is lengthy – Tua Tagovailoa, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson – for some teams it’s been a bloodbath, but injuries to proven fantasy studs usually means rookies you wouldn’t have dared to start before are now in consideration. I’m here to help you parse through the rookies if any of them are on your radar as injury fill-ins.
Week 2 saw breakout games for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers continuing to rack up targets for Las Vegas, Braelon Allen finding the end zone twice, and Caleb Williams and Bo Nix taking baby steps forward. There’s a lot more in store for week 3, so let’s not waste any more time recapping what you already know.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s tackle week 3…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Daniels has yet to find the end zone through the air this season, and it hurt his fantasy output last week when he finished as just the QB18, but what we’ve seen across the NFL has me even more convinced that Daniels should be treated as a weekly top-12 QB. Passing production is down league-wide, Daniels’ rushing production gives him a nice floor each week, and he’s executing well within what he’s being asked to do in this offense. Through 2 weeks, the rookie has completed 75.5% of his passes and hasn’t turned the ball over. If he keeps doing that, we’re going to see better passing days in the future. This week he faces a Cincinnati defense that has allowed just 136 passing yards per game, but they also rank just 15th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA stat and have given up 32 and 29 rushing yards to Jacoby Brissett and Patrick Mahomes, respectively. If those guys are running for 30-ish yards, Daniels has a decent chance to break 60 on the ground. You’re not going to find many QBs with more upside than Daniels offers on a week-to-week basis.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): I hope all of you Marvin Harrison Jr. drafters out there didn’t panic and bench the rookie after his week 1 dud, because week 2 was sensational. Harrison put up over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns in just the 1st quarter against the Rams last Sunday en route to an overall WR1 finish for the week, and it should be just the beginning of a fantastic career. He gets a favorable matchup in week 3 against a Detroit defense that has given up a 20-point WR fantasy game in each of the last two weeks. I wouldn’t count on quite the same kind of blowup game this week, but Harrison should have a WR2 floor against a young Detroit secondary that’s still finding it’s way.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Nabers wasn’t quite as explosive as Marv in week 2, but he wasn’t far behind, finishing the week as the WR3 after putting up 10-127-1 on an absurd 18 targets (a 67% target share!!). After facing the Commanders’ barely there secondary, he’s going to find the sledding to be much tougher against the Browns in week 3. You still can’t sit him given the kind of volume he’s seeing, but I’d expect this week’s performance to be closer to his week 1 output than his week 2 output. Cleveland ranked 2nd in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game. They’ve been a little worse than that through 2 weeks this year (10th in DVOA, 15th-most WR points allowed), but Daniel Jones isn’t on the same level as the two QBs the Browns have faced this year (Dak & Trevor Lawrence). Nabers should be treated like a solid WR3 this week with upside for more.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): It’s taken just two weeks into his rookie season for Bowers to reach auto-start status. The guys we expected to be the studs of the position – Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta, Kincaid – have all underwhelmed through two weeks. Meanwhile, Bowers has been a focal point of the Raiders’ offense, racking up 16 targets so far in an offense that should continue to lean pass-heavy. This week he gets to face a Carolina defense that coughed up TDs to Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson in week 1 and should continue to struggle on the defensive side of the ball even if Andy Dalton improves their offense. Bowers has posted back-to-back top-5 finishes to start his career, and should be treated as a safe bet to finish highly again this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ind.): This is only applicable to superflex leagues, but I like Caleb Williams to post his best game as a pro this week against a terrible Colts’ defense that is without their best pass rusher (DeForest Buckner). If you’ve been looking at box scores, you know the Colts have coughed up over 150 rushing yards to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs this year, but did you know they also rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA for the season? This is a defense that can be beat in multiple ways, and I don’t expect the Bears’ RBs who have totaled just 85 rushing yards in 2 games to duplicate the rushing efforts we saw from Mixon and Jacobs, so Caleb will have chances to pick on them through the air. Williams looked sharp on the opening drive last week before the Texans started blitzing, and I expect the Bears to have better answers for the blitz in this one against an Indy team that has a lot less pass rushing firepower than the Texans. I think Caleb has a real chance to post 250 and 2 scores in this game.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): With Rachaad White suffering a groin injury last week in Detroit, Irving could be in line for a bigger workload in a game where the Bucs are a touchdown favorite against a Denver team that has allowed the 11th-most RB points so far. If White misses this game, or you get a sense that he’s going to see a limited workload as a result of his injury, Irving has potential to finish as a top-24 back in a favorable matchup. Bucky has handled just over a third of the running back snaps and carries so far this year, and if you throw away Irving’s 31-yard TD run in week 1, he’s STILL averaging a yard and a half more per carry than Rachaad this season. If White is going to be less than 100% this week, the Bucs should give the rookie a real chance to lead the way. If White is going to be limited, I’d treat Bucky as an RB3 with upside. If White’s out, Bucky is an RB2.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 3: @Pit.): McConkey’s week 2 output was less than stellar in a game against Carolina where the Chargers just didn’t have to throw much. Things get a little tougher this week with LA a 2-point underdog to the Steelers, so game script should be much more neutral, and McConkey should be able to avoid Joey Porter Jr.’s coverage in the slot. Quentin Johnston should draw Porter’s coverage instead. Porter has mostly erased the opposing team’s WR1 in the first 2 weeks (Drake London: 2-15-0 on 3 targets, Courtland Sutton: 1-26-0 on 4 targets), but slot receivers have had a lot more success against Pittsburgh. Ray Ray McCloud put up 4-52-0 on 7 targets in week 1, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey tallied 4-50-0 on 5 targets in week 2. McConkey is a better receiver and has a better QB than either of those two slot guys. I’d treat 4-50 as the floor here, which makes McConkey a viable WR3 this week.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ind.): If you read what I wrote about Caleb Williams above, you know I like the Bears to have as much success throwing the ball as they have all year, and that yardage has to go to someone. Keenan Allen is expected to be sidelined again this week, so Odunze and DJ Moore should be on the field for nearly every play. The Colts’ secondary has been in shambles, allowing a 78.3% completion rate and nearly 10 yards per completion. This is setting up as a spot where Odunze could have a breakout game, but part of me worries about whether OC Shane Waldron will let it happen. With Keenan Allen out last week, it was a perfect opportunity for the Bears to showcase Odunze, and instead they were scheming up looks for Gerald Everett and DeAndre Carter. Waldron was very slow to trust 1st-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year too, so I’m hoping this isn’t a trend. I still like Odunze as an upside WR4 this week if you can stomach plugging in a player with less than 4 PPR points per game in the first 2 weeks.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 3: @TB): If you’re in a pinch this week in a superflex league, you can probably get away with starting Nix, but I’d view him as an option at the tail end of the top 24 QBs for the week. Volume has been the best signal for Nix’s fantasy value through 2 games – he’s attempted 38.5 passes per game - but his paltry 5 yards per attempt means that volume isn’t even adding up to 200 passing yards on average. At a quick glance, this looks like a great matchup on paper. The Bucs have allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game so far, but 53.4% of the fantasy points they’ve allowed this year were rushing points for Jayden Daniels in week 1. Neither QB they’ve faced has thrown a touchdown or reached 11 points of passing production against them. The Bucs rank 13th in pass defense DVOA and should continue to make things tough on Nix through the air. Nix’s rushing upside and passing volume provide some hope for him to produce a quality QB2 performance where you could plug him in if you need to, but I would temper expectations.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 3: @Atl.): The Chiefs learned this week that they’ll be without RB Isiah Pacheco for possibly up to 2 months, leaving a huge void in their offense. They went out and signed Kareem Hunt on Tuesday, but he’ll likely take a couple weeks to get ramped up, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still on IR, leaving the backfield to Steele and Samaje Perine in the meantime. There’s been a lot of speculation about what this backfield will look like without Pacheco, and I think it’ll be messy once Hunt is ramped up and CEH returns, but it should be fairly predictable until then. Steele has out-snapped Perine 6 to 0 in short down & distance situations, and Perine has out-snapped Steele 9 to 1 in long down & distance situations. The only long down & distance snap Steele played was one where he took a handoff up the middle to better position the Chiefs for their game-winning field goal last Sunday. We should see a standard division of duties in this backfield where Steele handles the bulk of the early down work, and Perine handles most of the passing down work. There will be some slight deviation from that to avoid being too predictable, but by and large, that’s how it should go. Being the lead rusher for the Chiefs always carries some TD upside with it, but I wouldn’t expect a huge yardage total against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 6th-fewest RB points per game this year and 5th-fewest last year. Treat Steele like a TD-dependent flex option.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Thomas has rewarded fantasy managers who were willing to roll the dice on him the first two weeks, logging WR18 and WR27 finishes in the first two games despite tallying just 4 targets in each. If you want to roll those dice again, I wouldn’t fault you. You only need BTJ and T-Law to connect once or twice to give you a useful fantasy day with the downfield targets he’s been seeing, but this Buffalo defense has made life tough on top receivers so far. They held Marvin Harrison Jr. to 1 catch for 4 yards in the opener and had mostly contained Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last week even before Tua exited the game with a concussion. Neither receiver made it to 50 scrimmage yards. I don’t feel great about the prospects of Thomas connecting on more big plays in this one.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): Coleman was frustratingly targeted just once in the Bills’ win last week over the Dolphins, but there are some reasons for optimism here. He led the Bills’ receivers for the second straight week with a 90% route participation rate, and his low target total was as much a result of the team’s low passing volume as anything. Josh Allen attempted just 19 passes in a game that wasn’t competitive early and got less competitive when Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion. The Bills are solid 5 and a half-point favorites this week, but I don’t see this game being quite as non-competitive. The Jaguars’ pass defense has had a clear weakness through the first two weeks of the season – the right side of the field. They rank 28th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the right, with both their right CB Montaric Brown and his safety help over the top struggling. Coleman has spent about half of his snaps this year lined up to the right, so he should see plenty of opportunities against that weak right side. The Bills passing game is going to spread the ball around quite a bit, but Coleman should get enough work to be worth consideration as a WR4. The only reason I’m hesitant to recommend starting him is the floor we saw last week.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Cam Taylor-Britt wrote a check with his mouth last week that I did not expect him to cash on Sunday, but he more than backed up his Xavier Worthy trash talk, holding the rookie to just 2 catches for 17 yards and making an incredible one-handed interception in the process. Worthy was supposed to be the burner that gave Patrick Mahomes the ability to push the ball down the field again and beat 2-deep shell coverages, but two weeks in, Mahomes is doing more dinking and dunking than ever. Mahomes’ 5.1-yard aDOT this year would be easily the lowest of his career. You already know Worthy isn’t going to be a high-volume target for Mahomes – he’s totaled just 7 targets and 2 rushing attempts through 2 games – so you need splash plays and TDs to get value from him in your lineup. Mahomes’ conservative approach, and safety Jessie Bates looming over the top in coverage have me thinking this won’t be a great week to trust Worthy to make a big play. The Falcons have allowed just 2 completions of 20+ yards through 2 weeks.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 3: @LV): The Panthers have made the move to bench Bryce Young this week in an effort to try and fix their broken passing game that totaled just 255 yards in the first two weeks (35 of which have gone to Legette). Dalton is at least a competent NFL QB, but he’ll be dealing with the same scheme, same o-line, and same pass catchers that Bryce had to work with. I do expect some modest immediate improvement this week, especially facing off against a Vegas defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA, but if you’re willing to take a chance on Dalton feeding Legette this week given what we’ve seen from the Panthers in the first two weeks, you’re braver than I am.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Mitchell’s usage through two weeks has teased the upside he has in this offense with cannon-armed Anthony Richardson at the helm, but it just hasn’t turned into production so far. He’s earned 9 targets that have traveled on average more than 18 yards down the field, but he’s pulled in just 2 of them for 32 yards. Meanwhile, fellow deep threat Alec Pierce has pulled in 8 of 10 targets for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns. All signs point to Josh Downs being active this week. Michael Pittman isn’t going to be the one to lose playing time to get Downs on the field, so that means one of Pierce or Mitchell will, and given how the first two weeks have gone, I’d expect it to be Mitchell. He’ll likely still be involved and could see a couple targets, but his route participation rate should drop below 50% after being right around 70% for the first two weeks. His only path to fantasy relevance this week is to score a TD, preferably a long one.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): The box score will show you that Davis touched the ball 10 times in week 2, and that might get you excited about his growing role, but I regret to inform you that not much changed from week 1. Davis is still splitting backup work with Ty Johnson, and 6 of his 10 touches came in the 4th quarter with the Bills up by 3 touchdowns. The value proposition with Davis was that he would get valuable goal line carries, but through two weeks, the Bills have run 7 offensive snaps inside the 10-yard line – 1 incomplete pass to Keon Coleman, 3 rushes by James Cook, and 3 rushes by Josh Allen. There’s not a lot of fantasy upside in getting a handful of rushing attempts with no goal line work even in a good matchup. The Jaguars have been a middling RB defense so far, allowing the 14th-most points per game to the position.
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Wright got his first taste of NFL action last week, and it didn’t go according to plan. He totaled just 4 yards on 5 carries with Raheem Mostert sidelined, and the Dolphins lost their QB in the process. Mostert is practicing this week as of Wednesday, so it’s possible Wright will go back to being inactive on gameday, but if he’s active, I wouldn’t expect much more opportunity than he got last week. If the Dolphins want to be competitive without Tua, they’re going to have to lean on De’Von Achane as much as possible, so I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of touches for Wright against what has been a much-improved Seattle defense. There’s always a chance Wright breaks a big play, but the floor here is zero points.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): Benson got a little extra work in week 2 with the Cardinals surprisingly blowing out the Rams, but he was largely ineffective with the extra carries, putting up just 10 rushing yards on 11 totes. He should be back to his normal workload this week – just a handful of touches – against a Detroit defense that ranks 9th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 3: @LAR): The 49ers got some bad news this week that WR Deebo Samuel is dealing with a calf strain and is likely to miss a couple weeks, but that news could provide a small bump to Guerendo’s playing time while he’s out. The 49ers use Deebo as the change of pace back more often when Christian McCaffrey is out, so Deebo’s absence means they’ll be forced to use Guerendo when Jordan Mason needs a breather. I don’t foresee a ton of playing time this for Isaac unless the game gets out of hand – he was out-snapped by Mason last weekend 24 to 1 – but I’d be surprised if he’s limited to just a snap or two again.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Tracy’s snap share stayed stable from week 1 to week 2, checking in right around 20% again last Sunday, but he was limited to just 1 touch against the Commanders after handling 2 carries and 2 targets in the opener. He’s not going to help your fantasy squad much with fewer than 5 touches.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 3: vs. SF): On paper, it looks like Corum saw a huge leap in playing time last weekend, carrying 8 times for 28 yards after not playing a single snap in week 1. If you look closer, you’ll see that all 8 of those carries came in the 4th quarter with the Rams trailing 41-10. He didn’t play a snap before LA was in a 31-point hole. The uptick in touches isn’t a change in Corum’s role. Keep him parked on the bench.
RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 3: @Ten.): Lloyd returned in week 2 from a preseason hamstring injury that sidelined him for the opener, but he left the game with a new ankle injury that could sideline him for week 3. He’s already sharing backup work with Emmanuel Wilson behind bell-cow back Josh Jacobs. The new injury just further cements that he shouldn’t be in lineup consideration this week.
Update: Lloyd was placed on IR and is out until at least week 7
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 3: @NYJ): Don’t be fooled by the TD Polk scored last week. He still was targeted just 3 times and is an ancillary weapon in a low volume passing attack. The Pats face the Jets this week, who have been off to a sluggish start on defense but ranked 3rd in pass defense DVOA a season ago. I wouldn’t count on Polk finding the end zone again this week.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): McCaffrey continued to operate as one of the Commanders’ clear top-3 WRs last weekend in terms of playing time, but figuring out who gets the opportunities in this offense after Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz looks like it’ll be a weekly crapshoot. McCaffrey was targeted just once last Sunday while Dyami Brown, Olamide Zacchaeus, and Noah Brown were each targeted 3 times. When the ceiling case for McCaffrey is likely 4-5 targets, you should be looking elsewhere for your starting WRs. He doesn’t get the kind of deep targets that can result in strong production with that volume.
WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 3: @LAR): Deebo Samuel is expected to miss a couple games with a calf strain, but I wouldn’t expect Cowing to see much of an increase in usage as a result. Ronnie Bell and Chris Conley have both been running ahead of Cowing as the team’s WR4 and 5, and I’d expect that duo to play the majority of the WR3 snaps this week, though I expect we’ll see fewer 3-WR sets and more Kyle Juszczyk than normal while Deebo is out.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. LAC): Wilson was inactive again in week 2 as he works his way back from injury. He missed significant practice time in the latter weeks of training camp prior to missing the last two weeks, so I’d expect there to be a ramp up period of at least a few weeks once he’s able to suit up before we’ll see him utilized in anything close to a full-time role. He could be active in week 3, but he shouldn’t be in your lineup.
WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. NE): Corley ran his first route of the season last week and caught a pass for 4 yards on that play. He did not run a 2nd route. Malachi remains buried on the Jets’ depth chart for now.
TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): All posted a quietly positive game last week in his first extended NFL action, tallying 4 catches for 32 yards against the Chiefs, but it’s not production I would count on repeating itself in week 3. The Bengals made a point to avoid going after Kansas City’s stingy outside corners and attacked them with the tight end position after watching Isaiah Likely shred their secondary in week 1. Four different Cincy tight ends logged route participation rates of over 25% in week 2. In fact, All’s 27% rate was the lowest of the 4, and his 4 targets were just 4 of 16 total tight end targets for the Bengals on Sunday. This week’s opponent, the Commanders, are much more vulnerable at cornerback than KC. The Commanders have allowed just 1 catch for 5 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 weeks, while coughing up 18+ fantasy points to 3 different wide receivers in that span. This should be a big week for Ja’Marr Chase, and not for the Cincy tight ends.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): I was optimistic about Johnson after week one when he earned 4 targets and logged a 76% route participation rate, but the Giants made two changes in week two that make me much less bullish on Theo in the immediate future. The first is that they decided to keep their tight end in to block more often to help protect Daniel Jones. Johnson ran 38 routes in week 1 and logged just 8 pass blocking snaps. In week 2, those numbers were 16 routes and 12 pass blocking snaps. The second thing the Giants did was realize that they should be throwing to Malik Nabers as much as humanly possible. Nabers had a 67% target share in week 2. We won’t see that absurd number every week, but I expect the ball to go to Nabers often enough that there just isn’t enough leftover receiving work for Johnson to be a start-able fantasy tight end.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 3: @LV): The Panthers’ passing game could get a much-needed shot in the arm this week with the switch at QB to veteran Andy Dalton, but Tommy Tremble’s week 2 return from injury means Sanders probably won’t benefit much. Sanders did see his target total double from 1 in week 1 to 2 in week 2, but his playing time went in the opposite direction with Tremble active. Sanders’ route participation rate dropped from 69% to 51% while Tremble earned a 45% share and 4 targets against the Chargers. Anything’s possible if this passing game looks drastically different with Dalton, but I’d bet against Sanders, who has totaled just 12 yards on 42 routes run.
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Spann-Ford played ahead of Luke Schoonmaker in week 1, but that changed in week 2 with starting tight end Jake Ferguson sidelined. Both players logged uninspiring route totals, but Schoonmaker ran 15 routes to just 12 for Spann-Ford, and the 2nd-year tight end out-targeted the rookie 6 to 1. Schoonmaker is the only Dallas tight end who should be in fantasy consideration if Ferguson is out again.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Like it or not, this is Zach Ertz’s job until further notice. Sinnott has run just 3 target-less routes in each of his first two NFL games.
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. NE): I know, this is probably a week late and going to feel like point chasing after Allen piled up 56 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs last Sunday, but I’m listing him here because I don’t think his usage was a fluke or was a result of Breece Hall being banged up. In week 1, we only saw Allen in garbage time vs the 49ers, but in week 2, he played a full drive in the 2nd quarter and mixed in regularly in the 2nd half in a game that never had a margin of more than 7 points, and he made the most of the opportunities. I’m not saying that Allen is going to usurp Breece Hall at any point this season, but rather that I think there could be room for both to be fantasy relevant. Nathaniel Hackett was the OC and Aaron Rodgers was the QB in Green Bay in 2021 and 2022, when Aaron Jones was finishing as a top-12 RB and teammate AJ Dillon was finishing in the top-30, and I think we could see something similar play out here with Allen as that RB2. I don’t love the matchup this week with New England boasting a solid defense so far (allowing the 11th-fewest RB points per game), but Allen shouldn’t be sitting on waiver wires, and he’s likely going to be instrumental in getting through bye weeks for some teams, and he could have RB1 upside if anything happens to Breece.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): There haven’t been a ton of targets for McMillan through two weeks, but his targets have consistently been downfield, and he could see some extra looks come his way this week with Mike Evans likely to draw shadow coverage from Pat Surtain Jr. Surtain limited DK Metcalf to 3-29 on 4 targets in week 1, and George Pickens to 2-29 on 4 targets last week, and Baker Mayfield hasn’t been the type of QB to force the ball into coverage in his time in Tampa. That should mean Chris Godwin’s hot streak to start the year continues, but also that Jalen McMillan should set a new season-high in targets. McMillan leads the team in routes run and should tangle mostly with 2nd-year pro Riley Moss, who has allowed 9 completions for 94 yards on 13 throws into his coverage. Those 9 completions account for 29% of all completions against the Broncos this season. If you’re in a bad spot at WR this week due to injuries, McMillan is a guy who isn’t projected to score a lot of points but is set up for a potentially strong week.
WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 3: @TB): In case you forgot about Vele, the rookie hauled in 8 receptions in week 1 before sitting in week 2 with a rib injury. He’s practicing in a limited capacity as of Wednesday, and his matchup this week with Tampa could be a decent one. The Bucs rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA the short passes, and if he’s active, Vele should once again feast on short throws in what has been a high-volume passing game (77 attempts through 2 weeks). I wouldn’t count on Vele breaking 50 yards, but he should dink and dunk his way to a respectable PPR game if you’re in a pinch.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 3: vs. SF): After significant injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the last two games, Whittington suddenly finds himself in a prominent role in an LA offense that still boasts Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. I wouldn’t plug him into lineups this week in a tough matchup with the 49ers. Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson are going to be the top 2 WRs in this offense for now, and Whittington will split WR3 snaps with Tutu Atwell until he separates from him, but we saw the Rams give Whittington volume in the preseason and they’ve tried to get him a couple manufactured touches in the regular season as well. There’s room for him to climb the depth chart if he makes the most of his opportunities, and he shouldn’t be sitting on dynasty waiver wires outside of the shallowest leagues.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): This is probably moot if Tee Higgins is able to return this week, but Burton has some sneaky potential in this matchup if Higgins is sidelined again. Burton is still just an ancillary role player in this offense (he ran just 8 routes last week), but he’s shown the ability to be a deep threat in college, in the preseason, and again last week when he caught a deep ball for 46 yards, and now he gets to face off with the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Commanders have given up 18+ points to 3 different receivers in the first two weeks of the season and have allowed 7 completions of 20+ yards. Ja’Marr Chase is probably going to post a blow-up game this week, but this is a spot where Burton could do some real damage on just 8-10 routes run if a couple deep balls connect.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.