Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Wow!  What an opening week for the NFL and for contrarian sports bettors! The underdogs showed out with a 12-4 week 1 finish, and 9 of those dogs won outright! The total bets being placed was phenomenal and definitely a sign of the spreading movement of legalization throughout the country. Contrarian bettors will be able to take HUGE advantage of the growing interest in sports betting and week 1 was a great start! We went 3-0 with our drinkfive Week 1 bets, so let’s keep that momentum rolling into week 2.

Week 2 is known as “overreaction week”. We have to be careful not to fall into this trap ourselves. A couple of my picks below have one of my favorite signals to follow as a contrarian bettor; reverse line movement. This is when the line moves in the opposite direction of what “makes sense”. It’s a terrific signal that, despite heavy public betting numbers on a team, the pros are on the other side and the books have enough liability with the pro money that the line moves away from the majority bet team.

Philadelphia +3.5 vs San Francisco:

This might be my favorite bet of the week. The 49ers are traveling across the country again to face the new-look Eagles at home. The look-ahead line opened at 4 and after week 1’s results dropped to 3.5, but what I really like about this game is the reverse line movement we have seen midweek. This number has now dropped to 3 in spite of the Eagles only seeing a third of the bets. Another great signal is the fact that 73% of the money is coming in on the Eagles even with the small bet count. This means heavier pro money is moving the needle and that is the side I want to be on. Try to grab the hook and get the 3.5 if you can to protect against the most common key number in the NFL. Remember, the lines move late on game day as both the public starts looking at the games more during the weekend and the limits rise so the pros can come in with bigger bets.

Indianapolis +3.5 vs Los Angeles Rams:

To me, this is a classic overreaction line for week 2. The Colts didn’t look great in their debut against the Seahawks, meanwhile, the Rams were featured on Sunday Night Football and had all eyes on them in prime time for their win. Keeping this simple the Colts lost to a very good team and the Rams beat an unimpressive Bears team at home. Another week for the Colts to prepare, and without uncertainty about Carson Wentz, facing a west coast team traveling east; I am taking the home dog here. The line has been bouncing all week. You may be able to hold out for a 4 or even better as Sunday's game time approaches, but every time the number has bumped to 4 this week it was immediately hit and dropped back down to 3.5 signaling sharp money coming in.

Under 54.5 Tennessee @ Seattle:

The look-ahead total for this game was 49 and Monday the lines shot up to 54. That is a lot of action very quickly, however, since Monday the line has settled in a bit. I think 54.5 is the best number from an overreaction high total. Seattle was impressive against Indianapolis last week and they are headed home to play in front of their home crowd for the first time since the 2019 season. Tennessee looked awful, and while that could be an overreaction itself, I don’t think it is. I feel like the Titans are regressing and they face a very tough matchup in Seattle with the Seahawks and the 12th man. The line movement tells us the under is a heavily sharp play in a pros vs joes betting matchup. 38% of the bets are on the under, while a massive 89% of the money is coming on the under. I think this line was way too inflated, but the public sees a high-powered offense against a bad defense and thinks the over is a no-brainer. Tennessee is going to rely on the run to keep that high-powered offense on the sidelines, and their defense only needs to come up with a couple of key stops to keep this one under the total.

While the early week bet counts were lower than week 1 I have still seen some impressive bet counts coming in throughout the week. This high level of interest is good for the contrarians. More public money means stronger signals and heavier betting on favorites and overs. This is giving us A TON of value early on this season and I think that had a lot to do with the record-setting week 1 covering record for the underdogs. We still have to stay consistent and stick to the strategy. Take what the lines show us, even the “hold your nose” plays like Detroit last week. Speaking of Detroit, let's end on a good lesson gleaned from that game. Detroit looked sharp all week and as the weekend approached we saw the number rise (all the way to 9.5). Early week bettors didn’t cover, but if you grabbed them on the weekend you either pushed or got the back-door cover with their comeback. This shows the importance of closing line value (beating the closing number) and sometimes waiting for the weekend line movements when more public betting and higher limits come into the books.

Entering into week 4 and I want to change things up a bit. Moving forward, I am going to do a quick early week preview for some of the games I am liking early that week. Thursday night I will put my official drinkfive.com picks out. The goal is to dive a bit deeper each week into the strategies and trends I use to make my bets. I will also give plays or leans I have on each of these games outside of the official picks later in the week.

Last week we went 2-1 bringing our season record to a profitable 6-3 so far. Contrarian bettors have been on fire to start the season! Through the first 3 weeks, dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%). It’s a great start to the year, but if blindly following dogs and unders was all it took then we’d all be rich. I expect some regression at some point as the books get sharper with their lines and adjust. In the meantime, we stick to our contrarian roots to take advantage of extra value, but we also check off trends, systems, line movement, and any other edge we can find to make the best bet!

Note:  The spread number will always reflect based on the home team and does not represent my pick or play.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati -7.5 O/U 46:

The 2-1 Bengals host the 0-3 Jaguars in the week 4 Thursday Night matchup. This line opened at 7.5 and has pretty much stayed put since. The Bengals are getting 75% of the bets and 77% of the money and despite that lopsided betting we have yet to see major line movement. The lack of line movement is a classic line freeze, especially with the lopsidedness in betting, however this is a game I am not getting involved in from a spread perspective. The pros are all over Jacksonville and they have to be because 7.5 is a big number for any team in the NFL so it’s purely the value play. 

I do have this game in 4 separate teasers where I have Cincinnati teased down to -1.5. I also have a 1 unit bet on the under in this game as well. I got this at 46.5. The line opened at 47 and was bet down to 46.5 immediately, since then it has bounced around between 46.5 and 45.5. Bets and money are all favoring the over, but we see a dip in the line signaling reverse line movement. I am usually a fan of Thursday Night unders anyway because teams have less time to prepare, less time to heal up, and in general are off their normal routine.

Detroit at Chicago -3 O/U 42.5:

The early line opened Detroit +6 before being bet down to +3.5 by Sunday night. I am kicking myself for not jumping on this one early!  Detroit is taking the bets (78%) and the money (94%) early in the week which is what has led to the continued drop in the line. I even see a couple of 2.5’s on the board as of writing this. This is a divisional game and with that comes a built-in familiarity between the teams. The first goal for every NFL team is to win their division, so regardless of personnel or coaching changes these teams are built to compete with the teams in the division. This is usually something I feel I can take advantage of with divisional game underdogs. The bottom line in this one comes down to the very simple fact that Detroit is better coached. The Bears are at home, and they are coming off of an embarrassing loss, and we don’t know who the QB will be yet so I am laying off until later in the week.

I lean Detroit on this one at anything +3 or better. While they are 0-3 this season they have shown more than I think most of us expected to see this season. I think Matt Nagy has lost the locker room, while Detroit continues to fight hard in some tough early season games. This is a game I can see Detroit winning outright so I am also going to track the ML odds and sprinkle a little on it when I feel like I am getting my best value.

Cleveland at Minnesota +2 O/U 52:

This game is similar to the Carolina Dallas game in terms of my excitement level to bet it this week. This line opened with Cleveland favored at -1 and has since been bet up to 2, and even some 2.5’s. Cleveland has 70% of the bets and 90% of the money. To me this is purely a week 3 overreaction to Cleveland handling a very bad Chicago team and having the better record. Minnesota’s losses are to the Cardinals and the Bengals, both teams have winning records early in this season, and I do not think the Vikings are getting credit yet for how good those teams may be this season. The value here is too good to pass up; this game should be closer to a pick’em. If you want to feel better about this bet, throw Minnesota into a teaser bet and stretch that number across TWO key numbers in 3 and 7!

As I was writing this I grabbed Minnesota +2.5 because I don’t see any chance that the books move to this to 3 at any point this week. I also have Minnesota in a couple of teaser plays.

Kansas City at Philadelphia +7 O/U 54.5:

This one stinks, but this is a great example of how overreaction can create inflated value. The line on this game opened at 6.5 Sunday afternoon and bet down to 5.5 by Sunday night after the Chiefs lost, then hovered around 6 for most of Monday before jumping to 7 and 7.5 after the Eagles poor performance on Monday Night Football. The betting is predictably lopsided with KC grabbing 87% of the tickets and 98% of the money. I have a feeling a big part of the money coming in is in the form of teasers on KC. I have also teased the Chiefs down to 1.5-point favorites. I just don’t see a world where Mahomes loses 3 games in a row, not yet anyway. That being said, the Chiefs inability to cover the spread, slow start, and a big number on this game has me leaning Eagles early in the week. It’s a disgusting play, I know. 

Right now, this is only a lean to the Eagles and I would need to get it at 7.5 at least. I do have the Chiefs -1.5 in a couple of teasers already locked in. I have no love or opinion for the total in this one.

Carolina at Dallas -4.5 O/U 50.5:

Both the Panthers and the Cowboys remain undefeated ATS through the first 3 weeks of the season. Only one of them, barring a push, will leave week 4 remaining undefeated. This has been a crazy line to track and follow early in the week after opening early Sunday at 4 and jumping to 5.5 by Sunday night. The line has continued to bounce between 4 and 5 since. Bets are split 50/50, but the money is favoring Dallas with 67%. Typically, early week money is something that signals sharp action, which would be in favor of Dallas at this point. I am not making a play on this game yet, but I am heavily leaning Carolina in this game. Dallas is coming off a huge win on Monday Night Football against a division rival and is prime for a let down spot. Carolina has had extra rest and prep time, playing in last weeks Thursday night game, and have the top ranked defense in DVOA.

This number has been bouncing and if it gets back to 5 I may jump on it regardless of the day of the week. Dallas always draws heavy public action, plus they are coming off of the big prime time win where everyone saw them play. Right now, this is Carolina or no play for me. I also like the under in this game. It has been bet up from 48.5 to 50.5 and the bets and money are on the over, however I think this is inflated and I am looking to catch the high number before it dips back down again. No plays made yet, but this is a great betting game for week 4!

Seattle at San Francisco -3 O/U 52.5:

Both the Seahawks and the 49ers are coming off of a loss to NFC North teams and now face a division rival. You will come to know this about me, but I key into division matchup games immediately and I love division dogs! In this case especially we have a short division dog with a spread of 3 or less. This line opened at 3.5 and fell through the 3 to 2.5 Monday morning before settling at 3 (-115). Seattle is 1-2 while the 49ers are 2-1, which makes Seattle the more desperate team in this matchup. Russell Wilson is covering 65% of the time as a road dog in his last 33 games. Meanwhile, Shanahan is awful as a favorite going 8-19-1 (30%) in his last 28. If trends aren’t your thing, and you don’t like picking the highly bet (70% bets) and highly bought (78% of money) Seattle team, then consider the X and O’s; the 49ers run a man to man defensive scheme that is prime for Russ, Lockett, and Metcalf to pick apart.

I have a half unit bet on Seattle +3 -115 already in play. We will see what happens later in the week and if the opportunity presents itself to put the other half on them at +3 or better I will pull that trigger. This is a high total, but I see a high scoring game, I am just not sure if I can bet either way on this one confidently this early in the week.

Baltimore at Denver +1 O/U44.5:

It feels wrong to end with my last two picks being the “square” picks in terms of early week ticket and money count. Baltimore has seen 82% of bets and 88% of money since opening up at 1.5-point dogs on the road against the Broncos. I know Baltimore barely beat the Lions, if not for a record setting field goal by Justin Tucker, and the Broncos are 3-0, but let’s look at who these teams have each played. Baltimore lost in OT to the undefeated Las Vegas Raiders, beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, as previously mentioned. Denver has played the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets who are a combined 0-9 to start the season. I am far more willing to give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt for looking past the Lions after a huge win against a conference rival in week 2. Denver, on the other hand, doesn’t have anything near a signature win. The wrong team is favored and I would not be surprised to see this line close at a PK. 

This was my favorite bet early this week. I am on Baltimore +1.5, Baltimore +110 ML and I have them in a teaser play at +7 crossing the key number of 3 and landing on the key number of 7.