Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Through 3 weeks we are 6-3 on the official drinkfive picks!  Insert the “Its not much but its honest work” meme.  We are turning a small profit and I am looking forward to building on it in week 4! Underdogs and unders have been extremely profitable through the first 3 weeks. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%).  There are a couple of things I want to mention related to this incredible start; first, when betting underdogs, in particular short dogs, I advise putting a small portion of your bankroll on the money line. This is a great way to build extra bankroll and take advantage of plus money bets. Second, sports betting is not easy and trends are great for extra edges, but we have to be wary of regression. This is why sticking to a strategy is important. You’re going to ride some highs and lows, but trying to play both sides of the market is a recipe for disaster. I’m seeing some incredible value on dogs again this week so without further a due…

Seattle +3 at San Francisco:

This is a buy-low spot on Seattle as they are coming off of two losses in a row. Admittedly this line is a bit chalky with 72% of the bets and 77% of the money coming in on the Seahawks. I have this at +3.5 and my recommendation is to hold off and shop around for the hook if you can find it. That being said I am making it an official play +3. This is also a great spot to throw a bit of money on the money line currently at +130. First and foremost, this is a division game and I love taking division dogs. Division games provide an extra edge for underdogs because the teams are very familiar with one another, and GM’s build their teams to win divisions so they match up well regardless of record. I am betting on Russell Wilson in this one! He is 27-10 ATS (70%) as a road dog and 26-14-4 ATS (65%) off a loss. The extra edge is that he has never lost 3 games in a row in his entire career. I simply can’t pass up taking Wilson in a rare underdog spot.

Baltimore +1/ML at Denver:

Hopefully, you jumped on this one earlier in the week. I like Baltimore to win this game regardless, but the line is flipping and the Ravens will be the favorite before kickoff. This was an early week bet for me at Baltimore +1.5 and a little on the money line as well. I still like it here with Baltimore still showing as a slight dog. A small tidbit to mention when betting on this game. If the line flips and the spread is anything between a PK and -1.5 I would recommend looking at the money line instead of the spread. Even if that means paying a little more juice it protects you from losing the bet completely if Baltimore wins by 1. This is another chalky dog play with 74% of the bets and 80% of the money coming in on the Ravens. Ultimately, I think the Ravens were teased up when they opened as dogs, and are probably in a lot of money line parlays too. This explains the heavy action, but regardless I like other edges here outside of what the market is showing is the public play. Denver has been playing very well and Teddy Bridgewater has looked incredible, which is why now is the time to sell high on them. The Broncos look good, but then again look at the teams they have played; Giants, Jags, and Jets. The Ravens are a big step up in class compared to those teams. Harbaugh is another edge I like in this game. He is 58% as a road dog, including 4-1 with Lamar Jackson, but beyond that, he is significantly better than his counterpart Vic Fangio which could be the difference in what bookmakers are saying will be a coin flip game.

Minnesota +2 vs Cleveland:

I am back in my contrarian comfort zone with this pick. Minnesota is only getting 38% of the bets and 30% of the money this week when they play host to the Cleveland Browns. While Cleveland has the better record, they have not necessarily been the more impressive team. Sure, week 1 was a fight for the ages and for 3 quarters the Browns looks good, but ultimately, they came up short against Elite talent again. They followed up that disappointing loss with an uninspiring win against Houston and a drumming of the Chicago Bears; two severely bad teams that don’t earn them any merit from me. On the other hand, the Vikings are literally only a couple of plays away from starting 3-0. An OT loss to Cincinnati with a questionable fumble call and a missed field goal against Arizona in week 2. The fact that this game is in Minnesota makes all the difference. Mike Zimmer is 35-21-1 ATS (62.5%) at home and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) as a home dog.  Kirk Cousins has actually been playing very well and Dalvin Cook is looking to be back from injury. I don’t have faith that the Cleveland defense is complete enough to cover all the ways the Vikings can attack them. The only way I see this going south for the Vikings is if Cleveland jumps out to a big early lead.

Well, this has been my most embarrassing survivor pool performance by a long shot. Two picks, both heavy favorites, both losing on missed field goals as the clock ran out. The main pool I entered had 1924 entries and saw 1180 of those eliminated in the very first week. My picks, the Titans and the Broncos, were polarizing examples of how coaching can decide a game. The Giants first-year coach, Brian Daboll, showed that he understands the game of football and decided on a 2pt try rather than a tie late in the fourth quarter to secure his first coaching win.

Then there were the Broncos. Such superior talent on the team allowed them to remain in the contest in spite of numerous mental mistakes and poor coaching decisions. That is, until the final drive, as their 250 million dollar quarterback is driving them down the field to complete a 4th quarter comeback and Nathaniel Hackett decides to let the clock run down from a minute plus to 20 seconds on a 4th and 5 to attempt a 64 yard field goal. I have never in my life seen a worse coaching decision. It might be the only instance in the history of the universe to have a unanimous disagreement with the call. I'm serious. If we can somehow harness the solidarity of the opposition to that decision we could have world peace, it was truly amazing! It crushes me as a Broncos fan to come to the realization that they will be wasting several years of Wilson's career with this bozo at the helm. Normally, one bad decision can be written off, but something that bad shows he is not ready for the responsibility of being a head coach and will be learning on the job.

Anyways, take the Packers this week. Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears and is 6-0 coming off a loss with Matt LaFleur as coach. I think you should fade the other big favorite 49ers vs the Seahawks. Trey Lance has yet to prove he can play and in no way deserves 9.5 points.

Cheers!
Drink Five!