Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Last time we spoke about fantasy, we broke down the AFC east, starting with the Super Bowl champion Patriots. This time, we will head west and cover the NFC west, starting with the Super Bowl losing Seahawks.

Seahawks additions/re-signings:

Signed Marshawn Lynch to a 2-year contract extension. Beast mode is staying put in Seattle for, presumably, the rest of the prime of his career. Maybe they’ll remember to give him the ball on the goal line in the 4^th quarter the next time they’re in the Super Bowl. The biggest trade in the offseason saw Seattle acquiring Jimmy Graham from the Saints. This finally gives Russell Wilson a pro-bowl caliber pass catcher and is a huge upgrade for the offense.

Seahawks Losses:

They cut Zach Miller – don’t need him now, and besides, they have the other Willson for 2 TE sets. They also lost center Max Unger (as well as 2015’s first round pick) in the Jimmy Graham trade. This trade is still a net gain for the Seahawks offense, as they already have a center on the roster that filled in for Unger while he was out for 10 games last year.

Seahawks notes:

Michael Bennett wants a new contract after just getting a new one last year. So far, he hasn’t reported to voluntary workouts. The Seahawks haven't made a ton of moves, their roster is already rather stacked (at non-fantasy positions)! They still just have Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse at WR, and added Graham. I think all they need is Wilson and Beast-mode.

Cardinals additions/re-signings:

Signed Mike Iupati, a stellar guard from the 49ers. Iupati is signed to a 5 year deal, so he should anchor their line for quite some time. They also signed LaMarr Woodley, veteran LB who was on the Raiders last year.

Cardinals Losses:

Jonathan Dwyer – after his arrest, that’s a “no duh”. Rob Housler is no longer their TE, but that’s not really a position of great focus on this offense. Antonio Cromartie went back to the Jets. Larry Foote retired, Ted Ginn was released and signed with the Panthers and Darnell Dockett (D-lineman) was released to allow salary cap space.

Cardinals Notes:

The Cards need a QB, and they're going to wind up going with one less as they haven't offered a deal to Ryan Lindley. Maybe they want to draft one? They kept Larry Fitz, and they will ride with Ellington / Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams at running back.

49ers additions/re-signings:

Torrey Smith signed with the team, leaving the Ravens. He’ll be teamed up with Anquan Bolden for quite the 1-2 punch. Reggie Bush will provide a great change of pace behind an impressive Carlos Hyde. They also signed Darnell Dockett, Jerome Simpson, and of course Jim Tomsula as their new head coach.

49ers losses:

Frank Gore, who seemed eternal in San Francisco, is finally gone and went to Indy. Patrick Willis and Chris Borland both retired due to future injury concerns / they didn't want to destroy their body playing football. They also lost (addition by subtraction?) coach Jim Harbaugh. Mike Iupati went to Arizona, Michael Crabtree signed with Oakland, and they cut Stevie Johnson.

49ers notes:

The biggest change has got to be the coaching staff and the fact that there will be a new system. There's a ton of fantasy potential on this team now, so the 49ers could be in for a big turn-around, if they can get their in-house stuff in order. Of course, if you listen to our podcast, we both basically decided that it’s most likely that the 49ers finish last in the division this year.

Rams additions/re-signings:

Nick Foles is their new starting QB, one would assume, after acquiring him from the Eagles in a trade. They signed Nick Fairley, one of the best DL's in the league who played with Suh and joins the team that had the best line last year. They also added LB Akeem Ayers from the Pats - they will have a great defense again this year. Case Keenum has been signed from Houston as the backup QB, which is a rather important role in St Louis in recent years.

Rams losses:

Sam Bradford & Shaun Hill have been shown the door. I'm sure people in St Louis are saying "good riddance" to these guys. The Rams must be sick of Bradford's annual injuries and swapped him for Nick Foles. I’m not sure if the mad genius Chip Kelly just doesn’t like Foles, or if he has some crazy grand plan with all of his QB’s. What I do know is that the Rams didn’t really upgrade or downgrade their QB situation, but I suspect that Foles has a higher upside.

Rams Notes:

The Rams vs Steelers in week 3 should be sweet, as defense usually is stronger early, before the offenses can get rolling. Games that feature strength vs strength are always entertaining. They still only have Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin, so the receiving core is awful for now. Jared Cook is not likely to pick up the slack (ala Jimmy Graham). Tre Mason is still a bit unproven, but could be excellent if there are other playmakers on the offense to take some attention away from him. This is all going to be on Nick Foles to make something out of the offense.

Christine Michael has had a wild ride in his NFL career so far, and I do not expect that wild ride to end anytime soon. You may recall the hype last year as some folks thought Michael would run away with the Dallas job when given the chance. After being cut by the Cowboys, spending time on the Redskins practice squad, then being re-signed by the Seahawks, Michael is back to wreak havoc on Fantasy owners.

Expectations for week 1 were an even split but giving Michael the nod to start. The good news here is that Michael made the most of his carries vs Miami. He had 15 carries for 66 years (4.4 YPC) and added 2 catches for 5 more yards. Not a great game by any means but nice to note he had a better game in a near even split with Rawls. (Rawls stat line – 12 carries 32 yards (2.7 YPC) and 3 receptions for 26 yards)

I expect Rawls' usage to increase in the weeks to come but if he continues to disappoint then our favorite hype train should pick up more steam.

We also want to keep an eye on Russell Wilson and his ankle injury. Pete Carroll says it is nothing serious, but if for some reason Wilson misses time, the whole Seahawks offense will take a major hit.

All in all, I am usually the first one to hop on a hype train but I would temper expectations this year. I expect this backfield to be a time-share the whole season with both backs earning carries and having RB2/flex appeal depending on matchups. I can not see a scenario where Michael is the workhorse unless Rawls suffers another injury. In which case, CHOO CHOO!

2016 Prediction

654 rushing yards and 5 TD’s

As predicted, last week was a doozy for confidence pool picks. Point totals usually reserved for bye week wins were taking down pools everywhere. There were multiple touchdown favorites outright losing and others narrowly escaping with victories. I'm looking at you New England. Too much Stress! Sadly the Pittsburgh Steelers let me and their country down with their on-field display against the Chicago Bears, leaving me with only one remaining entry to the survivor pool. Fortunately 91 other members picked the Steelers and a total of 218 entries were eliminated by the time the games were over. The Dolphins flop against the New York Jets was the next biggest killer, claiming 71 entries.

That brings me to the Green Bay Packers. They trailed the Bengals 21-7 at halftime and required extra time to come back and win by a field goal 27-24 as 227 survivor entrants collectively let out their breaths. Initially the Packers are who I was looking at picking this week as they host the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football as a touchdown favorite. But I actually think the Bears might be a better team than the Bengals. And who am I kidding, I will be watching this game at a Chicago sports bar in San Diego with my fellow ex-Illini. I can't be in there cheering the Packers like some turncoat.

That brings me to this week’s pick, the Seattle Seahawks. They opened up as the weeks biggest favorite at -13.5 against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. The Colts offense performed better than I thought capable last week with Andrew Luck out. But, let’s remember it was vs the Browns and they barely hung on to the victory. The Seahawks have struggled on offense so far, especially establishing a running game. This week they will get both of those things corrected and continue the years-long tradition of running backs beating up the Colts defense.

My final suggestion would be to avoid the Arizona Cardinals. They could be widely picked as 8.5 point favorites against the 9'ers, but I think the Cardinals are done. The team missed their window and will be in rebuild mode this offseason. San Francisco is on a long week and Arizona on a short one, be careful of the upset.

Cheers

Drink Five

Last week was a tale of two halves. The first saw me with my head in my hands cursing my reluctance to select the Packers in their beat down of the Bears, while watching the Seahawks trail the Colts 15-10 at the half. Then alas the third quarter started and the Hawks began laying a beat down of their own en route to a 46-18 victory. Others were not so lucky, with 196 more people being eliminated in week 4. The 3 biggest disappointments came at the hands of Atlanta, Dallas, and New England.

Week 5 might be the hardest week to pick all season. All the bad teams play each other (Jets/Browns), and all the best teams have tough match-ups, are on bye, or on the road. The weeks biggest favorite is the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Steelers are the team I feel most confident in this week, and they actually haven't been that impressive this season yet. Unfortunately for me, I already used the Steelers up in a week 1 victory.

So, I have to go with my second choice, the Philadelphia Eagles at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Eagles have looked impressive all season long and have their only loss coming at the hands of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in week 2 (27-20). The Cardinals, on the other hand, look to be a team one season prior to a rebuild. While this game will feature Arizona's biggest strength (their passing game) going against the Eagles biggest weakness (their secondary), I still see the Eagles pulling this one off to add to their nice lead in the NFC East. Is there such a thing as making them beat us on the ground? Because at just 2.65 YPR the Cardinals will need 5 downs to get a 1^st.

Good Luck,

Drink Five!!