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Wow!  What an opening week for the NFL and for contrarian sports bettors! The underdogs showed out with a 12-4 week 1 finish, and 9 of those dogs won outright! The total bets being placed was phenomenal and definitely a sign of the spreading movement of legalization throughout the country. Contrarian bettors will be able to take HUGE advantage of the growing interest in sports betting and week 1 was a great start! We went 3-0 with our drinkfive Week 1 bets, so let’s keep that momentum rolling into week 2.

Week 2 is known as “overreaction week”. We have to be careful not to fall into this trap ourselves. A couple of my picks below have one of my favorite signals to follow as a contrarian bettor; reverse line movement. This is when the line moves in the opposite direction of what “makes sense”. It’s a terrific signal that, despite heavy public betting numbers on a team, the pros are on the other side and the books have enough liability with the pro money that the line moves away from the majority bet team.

Philadelphia +3.5 vs San Francisco:

This might be my favorite bet of the week. The 49ers are traveling across the country again to face the new-look Eagles at home. The look-ahead line opened at 4 and after week 1’s results dropped to 3.5, but what I really like about this game is the reverse line movement we have seen midweek. This number has now dropped to 3 in spite of the Eagles only seeing a third of the bets. Another great signal is the fact that 73% of the money is coming in on the Eagles even with the small bet count. This means heavier pro money is moving the needle and that is the side I want to be on. Try to grab the hook and get the 3.5 if you can to protect against the most common key number in the NFL. Remember, the lines move late on game day as both the public starts looking at the games more during the weekend and the limits rise so the pros can come in with bigger bets.

Indianapolis +3.5 vs Los Angeles Rams:

To me, this is a classic overreaction line for week 2. The Colts didn’t look great in their debut against the Seahawks, meanwhile, the Rams were featured on Sunday Night Football and had all eyes on them in prime time for their win. Keeping this simple the Colts lost to a very good team and the Rams beat an unimpressive Bears team at home. Another week for the Colts to prepare, and without uncertainty about Carson Wentz, facing a west coast team traveling east; I am taking the home dog here. The line has been bouncing all week. You may be able to hold out for a 4 or even better as Sunday's game time approaches, but every time the number has bumped to 4 this week it was immediately hit and dropped back down to 3.5 signaling sharp money coming in.

Under 54.5 Tennessee @ Seattle:

The look-ahead total for this game was 49 and Monday the lines shot up to 54. That is a lot of action very quickly, however, since Monday the line has settled in a bit. I think 54.5 is the best number from an overreaction high total. Seattle was impressive against Indianapolis last week and they are headed home to play in front of their home crowd for the first time since the 2019 season. Tennessee looked awful, and while that could be an overreaction itself, I don’t think it is. I feel like the Titans are regressing and they face a very tough matchup in Seattle with the Seahawks and the 12th man. The line movement tells us the under is a heavily sharp play in a pros vs joes betting matchup. 38% of the bets are on the under, while a massive 89% of the money is coming on the under. I think this line was way too inflated, but the public sees a high-powered offense against a bad defense and thinks the over is a no-brainer. Tennessee is going to rely on the run to keep that high-powered offense on the sidelines, and their defense only needs to come up with a couple of key stops to keep this one under the total.

While the early week bet counts were lower than week 1 I have still seen some impressive bet counts coming in throughout the week. This high level of interest is good for the contrarians. More public money means stronger signals and heavier betting on favorites and overs. This is giving us A TON of value early on this season and I think that had a lot to do with the record-setting week 1 covering record for the underdogs. We still have to stay consistent and stick to the strategy. Take what the lines show us, even the “hold your nose” plays like Detroit last week. Speaking of Detroit, let's end on a good lesson gleaned from that game. Detroit looked sharp all week and as the weekend approached we saw the number rise (all the way to 9.5). Early week bettors didn’t cover, but if you grabbed them on the weekend you either pushed or got the back-door cover with their comeback. This shows the importance of closing line value (beating the closing number) and sometimes waiting for the weekend line movements when more public betting and higher limits come into the books.

Bit of a rough week going 1-2 on the drinkfive best bets last week. Let’s look to bounce back in week 3 with a little bit more knowledge and some great trends to take advantage of. Underdogs regressed a little bit in week 2, however on the season dogs are an impressive 21-11 ATS. It’s still early in the season but there is a trend worth noting that is gaining some legs in the sports betting community; home field advantage does not seem to be as much of an advantage. Home teams are 16-16 straight up and 13-19 ATS through the first two weeks. What is eye opening, and worth tracking, is that home favorites are only 5-13 heading into week 3. 11 of the 16 games in week 3 have home favorites. High performing dogs plus underperforming home favorites; it’s a contrarian’s wet dream!

Miami +4.5 at Las Vegas:

The line for this game has been all over the place this week as both teams had questions regarding their quarterbacks. As of writing this the line is up to 4.5 and I am jumping on what I think is a severe over reaction. Miami got shut out last week and the Raiders are 2-0 so immediately there is contrarian value. Even though this line has bounced around due to injury concerns it opened at 5.5 and, even with clarity on the starting QB situation for both teams, it's down to 4.5. Despite having a backup QB start and only 26% of the tickets the line has never come close to going back to the original open of 5.5. I also see this as an overreaction play. Miami was shutout last week while there is suddenly, and embarrassingly, MVP talk surrounding Derek Carr after the Raiders 2-0 start. If that doesn’t scream over reaction I don’t know what does. The icing on top is Gruden’s 31% ATS record after multiple straight up wins.

Green Bay +3.5 at San Francisco:

There is some recent history between the Packers and the 49ers out in San Francisco. This will be the fourth meeting in 3 years at Levi’s Stadium. In 2019 the 49ers took care of business, while last year the Packers got their revenge. This is a rare popular dog with 63% of the bets coming in on the Packers and the line movement reflects that after dropping from 4 to its current line of 3. Tracking the line, I have seen what appears to be sharp buyback at 3, which is why I am recommending this pick at 3.5. As of writing this the line is juiced -120 to the favorite so I think there is a good chance 3.5 shows back up. There are a couple of trends that help tip the scales for me in this one too. Shanahan is only 22% (2-7 ATS) in his first game at home after coming off a multi-game road trip and he is only 31% ATS as a favorite in the last 27 games. Ultimately it would not surprise me to see Green Bay win this one outright, so of course I am going to take the points. San Francisco is dealing with tons of injuries and has not had a particularly confident win yet this season. Green Bay may have let the Lions stick around a bit longer than anticipated, but in the end, Aaron Rodgers did what future Hall of Famers do and found a way to confidently win the game with what was given to him. 

Tampa Bay -1.5 at Los Angeles Rams:

Tampa Bay is the public play and I am jumping on the bandwagon. There is a pro system that I like to follow on this one too; that is the dog to favorite system. Tampa Bay opened up as a +1.5 point road dog, however this line has been flipped and now Tampa is the -1.5 favorite. The dog to favorite system can be tricky, but ultimately it boils down to line movement and the public rarely moves lines, sharps move lines. The line currently sits at 1.5 and honestly, I am going to wait until the weekend to see if there is some buy back on the Rams now that it has moved so much. Aside from the line movement the Buccaneers are playing great football and are enjoying a 10 game winning streak dating back to last season. The Rams have looked good being led by Matt Stafford this year, but ultimately, they don’t have a signature win yet. Wins against Chicago and Indianapolis aren’t enough for me to fade the GOAT and reigning Super Bowl Champs. 

There is a profitable 0-2 ATS trend worth considering this week with 5 teams starting the season 0-2 ATS. Over the last 5 seasons teams that start 0-2 ATS are 26-12 ATS in week 3. Washington, New York Jets, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Atlanta all fit the trend this week. I could make an argument for Atlanta +3 at the New York Giants and Washington is clearly the sharp play at Buffalo after opening +9 and being bet down to +7/+7.5. Kansas City joining that list is honestly what makes the Chiefs Chargers game tough for me. KC has been bad ATS for longer than 2 games and ultimately, I do think the Chargers have value at 6.5, so do the books apparently who are not moving the line to the key number of 7 despite 71% of the bets and 79% of the money on the Chiefs. 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

42 Offensive Plays

The Cincinnati Bengals had only 42 plays (excluding 4^th down) on offense against the Steelers on Sunday and showed me that perhaps quantity isn’t everything. On last week’s podcast, I stressed that the Bengals just need to throw the ball a lot more in order to get their offense going. After all, their strength is really in the receiving core they have built. So, Joe Burrow throwing 18 passes is not what I would have considered a ticket to victory. It would appear, however, that efficiency is everything. Burrow’s final stat line of 14/18 for 172 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT) was plenty for victory, compared to Ben Roethlisberger going 38/58 for 318 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. That’s right, Ben threw the ball an astonishing 40 times more than his opponent. Hell, he targeted Najee Harris 19 times – that’s more than Burrow’s total attempts! So, I still think that the Bengals need to throw the ball in order to have success this year – and I’m sort of backed up in the stats with 3 TDs through the air, but I certainly got a big lesson in how important it is to be efficient on the football field.

66 Yard Field Goal

Usually, kickers are buried at the bottom of my column, but this week they certainly deserve a more prominent position. First of all, congrats to Justin Tucker, who finally broke the NFL record for the longest made field goal at 66 yards. As the best kicker in history, (sorry, Adam Vinatieri), it feels like it was only inevitable that Tucker would eventually break this record – it was just a matter of being given a chance. Jacksonville taught us all a lesson this week about why you don’t necessarily attempt field goals that long. At the end of the first half on Sunday, Matt Prater lined up to attempt a 68-yard field goal, which fell short and was returned 109 yards by Jamal Agnew of the Jags for a touchdown as time expired in the half. Apparently, it’s really hard to stop a guy on a return when you have a kicker, a holder, and 9 linemen on the field – rather than your normal kicking team. Agnew wasn’t touched once he crossed his own 40-yard line. It was an eventful day for kickers across the league. 10 kickers finished with 10+ fantasy points, and we were treated to a night cap of Mason Crosby kicking a 51-yard field goal to cap yet another Aaron Rodgers comeback.

7 Players with Rush Attempts

The San Fransisco 49ers are currently on the hunt for a starting RB. Trey Sermon was the starter in name last night, and did receive 10 carries, but that wasn’t even quite half of the 21 carries attempted by the team in the game. Six other players carried the ball for the 49ers, none of them doing so very effectively. Overall, the team had 21 carries for 67 yards, good for just 3.2 ypc. At least they did find the end zone twice. The 49ers need a featured back to make their offense run correctly, and they have been decimated by injury this year, so unless someone can step up into the role, it’s going to be a long year in San Fransisco. Hell, they had more players attempt a rush than catch a pass. I’m not sure the last time that happened, but it feels like some 1940’s football right there. The Packers had the opposite true – targeting 9 different players (technically…) while only two players had rushing attempts. That technicality? Well, I’m sure that Aaron Rodgers didn’t mean to target himself when he caught a pass off a deflection for 4 yards.

47 Total Yards

The Bears offense reached new lows on Sunday against a Cleveland Browns defense that feasted on rookie QB Justin Fields. The Bears total yardage – basically a net total, gains minus losses, was 47 for the entire team. Fields had 68 total passing yards, and lost 67 yards over the course of the 9 sacks that he had. No player on the Bears had more than 2 receptions. The Browns were able to run the ball 42 times, while the Bears attempted a combined 33 passes and rushes. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both outgained the Bears with their rushing yardage totals, and then Hunt did it again through the air with 74 more yards. Odell Beckham Jr. returned to the lineup, and also outgained the entire Chicago offense. Throughout the league, we had a number of plays that outgained the entire Bears offense on a single snap of the ball. Justin Tucker’s 66-yard record breaking FG, Mason Crosby’s game winning FG (51 yards), Antonio Gibson’s 73-yard touchdown reception, Jamal Angew’s 109-yard return TD, and many other field goals and other big plays. The point I’m trying to make here is that the Bears gained just 47 more yards of offense than I did on Sunday, and I barely left the couch.

12 QBs over 20 Fantasy Points

Time for a quick QB roundup. Josh Allen led the way this week, scoring 5 total touchdowns in the second straight game where his team put up 35+ points on their opponent – this time it was on the Washington defense that was very respected last year. Speaking of Football Teams, capital F, capital T, Taylor Heinicke just put up his second straight game above 20 fantasy points. It’s looking like he could take the starting job for the entire season, and he’s only owned in 27% of Fleaflicker leagues, so hit that wire! Landing just outside this top 12 was Kyler Murray, putting up just 19.54 points in Jacksonville – though he still keeps the season lead among all QBs with 89.2 fantasy points through three games. Justin Herbert finally has a signature win in his young career, and had a huge fantasy day. Leading a late TD drive, Herbert put up 4 total TDs and broke the 30-point mark. Elsewhere at QB, Sam Darnold is averaging 21.6 ppg, Aaron Rodgers is averaging 16.22 points per game, and Tom Brady has 4 carries for 20 yards. Nice.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

16 Total TDs

Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 on the season, and the second highest scoring player among all fantasy football players. He and Josh Allen have supplanted Jalen Hurts at the top of the overall list, and now I can stop trash talking Jalen Hurts and let him just be bad in Philadelphia. Oops, maybe I’ll stop now. Anyways, Taylor has a league leading 16 total TDs on the season. He also leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,541. He has 35 more fantasy points than the next highest non-QB, Cooper Kupp – though Kupp has had a bye, and Taylor’s is coming up in Week 14. Taylor has an average of 22.2 points per game, still shy of Derrick Henry (still the 7^th highest point total among non-QBs) – who would just be the biggest story in the NFL if he had remained healthy and continued the pace that he was on. Back to Taylor, who nearly had a remarkable record. Last week he tied LaDanian Tomlinson with 8 straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards and 1 TD. In week 12, he came just 3 yards short of extending that streak to a record breaking 9 games.

2 Receptions for the WR1

This week’s stupid technicality stat comes to us courtesy of the most impressive hybrid player in the league, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson has had RB and WR eligibility the entire season, and it makes sense, because he’s both! He is the WR7 on the season and the RB8, yet he only has one game over 100 receiving yards, and 1 game – this week – over 100 rushing yards. He does have 6 games over 100 total yards (including return yards, he really does do it all) and has 9 total touchdowns. He’s achieved at quite a high level all year and has huge season long totals, despite having missed one week on bye, and another week with an injury. It’s very rare for a player to finally break out in his 9^th season, on his 5^th team. Patterson is someone that offensive coordinators have tried to unlock all over the league, and it’s one of the least likely storylines this season that the Falcons offense, of all teams, have managed to figure out how to make him one of the top 10 offensive weapons in the entire league. Perhaps the credit should fall to Patterson himself, considering the Falcons offense is 27^th in total points and 26^th in total yards.

10 TEs over 10 Points

Most weeks you can find 8-10 TEs scoring at least double-digit points, so that’s perhaps not the most impressive stat I can provide you here. What I am proud of is that 6 of those 10 tight ends are owned in the drinkfive fantasy league. Unfortunately, none of the next 10 are rostered, giving us a 30% hit rate among the top 20 tight ends for week 12. In a cruel twist of ownership, 8 of the top 11 TEs that are the most owned TEs in all of Fleaflicker scored just 4.3 points or fewer (Darren Waller gets the ominous distinction of being the tallest…er…bad tight end this week). Jack Doyle led the way this week, in the second lowest TE1 score that we’ve seen all season long (T.J. Hockenson’s 13.9 points in week 8 get that award). Tonight’s game should see the return of Logan Thomas, who averaged 9 points per game, so at least there’s a bit of quality returning to the TE pool.

2 Losing Teams Over 200 Rushing Yards

Back when the NFL was a run-heavy league, a team that got to 200+ rushing yards was almost guaranteed a win. This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans both dominated their opponents on the ground, but were unable to turn that into control of the game. They both lacked a clear lead in the time of possession, and ultimately, on the scoreboard. The only other team that rushed for at least 200 yards was the San Fransisco 49ers, who did dominate the time of possession, still needed to cash in on two quick turnovers by the Vikings in the 3^rd quarter to take control of the game in order to use the rushing attack to their advantage. In both the Eagles’ and Titans’ case, their problem was terrible QB play that prevented them from scoring points. Neither team could top 130 yards passing, both of them threw the ball to the other team, and both had an abysmal completion percentage to boot. The NFL is a game of passing attacks with the run game complimenting it, just ask the Raiders with Derek Carr’s 6-0 record when he throws for at least 300 yards. They are 0-5 when he does not reach the 300-yard mark.

2 TDs in 4 Straight Games

Joe Mixon is quietly keeping his team firmly in the playoff chase with a feat that has not been seen for 15 years in the NFL. Mixon has 2 touchdowns in 4 consecutive games now, with 13 total on the season. Mixon has scored every single week since week 4, and only has 2 games this season where he did not find the end zone. He has at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and is now sitting as the RB3 on the season. He is just one of 5 non-QBs that have eclipsed the 200-point mark for the season. He has picked up where his rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase has left off. Chase started out the season on a tear, but has not gone over 50 yards in each of his last 4 games (since he blew up for 201 yards) and those are his 4 lowest totals on the season. Joe Burrow, likewise, has struggled lately, throwing only 2 TDs in the last 3 games, with 3 INT over that same time period (one of those going back to the house the other way). Mixon IS the Bengals offense at this point, and has a matchup coming up against the Chargers, giving up the 5^th most points to opposing RBs.