Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Last time we spoke about fantasy, we broke down the AFC east, starting with the Super Bowl champion Patriots. This time, we will head west and cover the NFC west, starting with the Super Bowl losing Seahawks.

Seahawks additions/re-signings:

Signed Marshawn Lynch to a 2-year contract extension. Beast mode is staying put in Seattle for, presumably, the rest of the prime of his career. Maybe they’ll remember to give him the ball on the goal line in the 4^th quarter the next time they’re in the Super Bowl. The biggest trade in the offseason saw Seattle acquiring Jimmy Graham from the Saints. This finally gives Russell Wilson a pro-bowl caliber pass catcher and is a huge upgrade for the offense.

Seahawks Losses:

They cut Zach Miller – don’t need him now, and besides, they have the other Willson for 2 TE sets. They also lost center Max Unger (as well as 2015’s first round pick) in the Jimmy Graham trade. This trade is still a net gain for the Seahawks offense, as they already have a center on the roster that filled in for Unger while he was out for 10 games last year.

Seahawks notes:

Michael Bennett wants a new contract after just getting a new one last year. So far, he hasn’t reported to voluntary workouts. The Seahawks haven't made a ton of moves, their roster is already rather stacked (at non-fantasy positions)! They still just have Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse at WR, and added Graham. I think all they need is Wilson and Beast-mode.

Cardinals additions/re-signings:

Signed Mike Iupati, a stellar guard from the 49ers. Iupati is signed to a 5 year deal, so he should anchor their line for quite some time. They also signed LaMarr Woodley, veteran LB who was on the Raiders last year.

Cardinals Losses:

Jonathan Dwyer – after his arrest, that’s a “no duh”. Rob Housler is no longer their TE, but that’s not really a position of great focus on this offense. Antonio Cromartie went back to the Jets. Larry Foote retired, Ted Ginn was released and signed with the Panthers and Darnell Dockett (D-lineman) was released to allow salary cap space.

Cardinals Notes:

The Cards need a QB, and they're going to wind up going with one less as they haven't offered a deal to Ryan Lindley. Maybe they want to draft one? They kept Larry Fitz, and they will ride with Ellington / Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams at running back.

49ers additions/re-signings:

Torrey Smith signed with the team, leaving the Ravens. He’ll be teamed up with Anquan Bolden for quite the 1-2 punch. Reggie Bush will provide a great change of pace behind an impressive Carlos Hyde. They also signed Darnell Dockett, Jerome Simpson, and of course Jim Tomsula as their new head coach.

49ers losses:

Frank Gore, who seemed eternal in San Francisco, is finally gone and went to Indy. Patrick Willis and Chris Borland both retired due to future injury concerns / they didn't want to destroy their body playing football. They also lost (addition by subtraction?) coach Jim Harbaugh. Mike Iupati went to Arizona, Michael Crabtree signed with Oakland, and they cut Stevie Johnson.

49ers notes:

The biggest change has got to be the coaching staff and the fact that there will be a new system. There's a ton of fantasy potential on this team now, so the 49ers could be in for a big turn-around, if they can get their in-house stuff in order. Of course, if you listen to our podcast, we both basically decided that it’s most likely that the 49ers finish last in the division this year.

Rams additions/re-signings:

Nick Foles is their new starting QB, one would assume, after acquiring him from the Eagles in a trade. They signed Nick Fairley, one of the best DL's in the league who played with Suh and joins the team that had the best line last year. They also added LB Akeem Ayers from the Pats - they will have a great defense again this year. Case Keenum has been signed from Houston as the backup QB, which is a rather important role in St Louis in recent years.

Rams losses:

Sam Bradford & Shaun Hill have been shown the door. I'm sure people in St Louis are saying "good riddance" to these guys. The Rams must be sick of Bradford's annual injuries and swapped him for Nick Foles. I’m not sure if the mad genius Chip Kelly just doesn’t like Foles, or if he has some crazy grand plan with all of his QB’s. What I do know is that the Rams didn’t really upgrade or downgrade their QB situation, but I suspect that Foles has a higher upside.

Rams Notes:

The Rams vs Steelers in week 3 should be sweet, as defense usually is stronger early, before the offenses can get rolling. Games that feature strength vs strength are always entertaining. They still only have Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin, so the receiving core is awful for now. Jared Cook is not likely to pick up the slack (ala Jimmy Graham). Tre Mason is still a bit unproven, but could be excellent if there are other playmakers on the offense to take some attention away from him. This is all going to be on Nick Foles to make something out of the offense.

Well, if you are lucky enough to live on the East coast, then you probably didn't waste any of your life Monday night watching the abysmal display put forth by the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. I envy you for this - Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert playing quarterback in the same game should be an FCC violation. In a game that gave us a combined passing total of 300 yards and a mere 185 yards of total offense from the Rams, there was little to get excited about. There was however one exciting moment which came early in the fourth quarter brilliantly called by Kevin Harlan.

Watch Kevin Harlan's brilliant call here.

There were a few things I could take away from this game. Gurley and Hyde will be 2 of the top rushers for this season if they can stay healthy. Tavon Austin will be a focal point of the Rams’ offense. Jared Goff will be starting under center sooner than later, watching the display Keenum will put on week in and week out will have no educational value and can only hurt in my opinion. Finally one of these two teams will likely be picking number one in next year’s draft.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

15 Passing TD's

Through 6 games, Texans rookie and frequent source of material for this column, Deshaun Watson has thrown 15 passing touchdowns, not to mention the two he's gotten via rushing. This total matches the 2016 Houston Texans entire season. Having the exact same receiving core makes this even more impressive, though you could argue that there are fewer weapons this season, with all their TE's injured. Watson has been beyond impressive and is set to crush all the rookie passing records and turn in the best rookie QB season ever, passing guys like Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Dan Marino. This hype train could roll all the way to Canton.

3 Points or Less

The San Francisco 49ers have lost their last 5 games by 3 points or less, a feat that is so rare it makes you think they should play the lottery, or perhaps, whatever is the opposite of the lottery. Yesterday even saw the benching of Brian Hoyer, destroyer of his own teams, for C.J. Beathard. Beathard, of course, is the grandson of Bobby Beathard, former NFL GM. Why the team calling the game had to announce this every 5 minutes is beyond me, but clearly it's important and must be repeated as often as possible. C.J. Beathard will soon be known as the guy who gets benched for whoever the 49ers sign next season (Kirk Cousins, anybody?).

25.40 Fantasy Points

No more old man jokes for the Purple Jesus (just blasphemous ones, please). Adrian Peterson was his old self, racking up 134 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs on Sunday. Who needs to catch the ball when you have Larry Fitzgerald doing all that for you. Peterson averaged 5.2 yards per carry and was explosive from the very start of the game, putting up more yards on the opening drive than the Cardinals averaged all season. The 160 yards the Cardinals got on the ground yesterday is only 99 short of their season total going into that game. Did Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson just become best friends?

25+ Fantasy Points

Move over Quarterbacks, the Running Backs are once again dominating the fantasy football scoreboard. Sure, Kirk Cousins led the way with 28.8, but the next 4 highest scoring players were RB's, and some familiar high draft picks as well. Melvin Gordon, Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell and Mark Ingram all scored at least 25 points AND each had at least 25 carries. Maybe the talent available at this position is dictating a return to the bell cow back. I for one, welcome the return of the workhorse RB to fantasy football. There were 11 RB's that saw at least 20 touches in Week 6, led by Jordan Howard's 36 carries and 1 reception. As we head into fall and bad weather football, I expect to see even more work for running backs.

2.77 Inches per Carry

Thursday night was a rough one for the Carolina Panthers, and their running backs in particular. With 13 total carries, Christian McCaffrey, Fozzy Whittaker and Jonathan Stewart netted only 1 yard, good for an average of 2.77 inches per carry. A less classy organization might make lewd jokes about proudly carrying 2.77 inches, or letting the running game grow and not necessarily letting it show, but not us. No sir, I don't care what kind of flaccid running game you bring to Thursday night football, we won't make you the butt of the joke at the end of an article. Not us here at drinkfive, we have way more class than that. Or not. Penis.

Los Angeles Rams

What’s changed since last year? The Rams don’t have any big changes (or even minor ones) on offense to speak of. They let CJ Anderson walk as a free agent (now on the Lions) and they acquired Blake Bortles as a backup QB. Aside from that, what would you expect from a team that won the NFC Championship last season? There’s nothing broken, so don’t try to fix it! Cooper Kupp is on track to return and, had he stuck around all year (extrapolated stats), he would have had 80 catches, 1100+ yards and 12 TDs. This would have made him the WR8 in standard scoring, right between Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Not bad company, and a good piece to have returning to your team.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? So, Cooper Kupp is a third year WR, but obviously he’s broken out. Last season saw Josh Reynolds fill in for him, and as a 3^rd year WR, he stands poised to step-up, if only he could get past any of the big 3 WRs on the Rams. Kupp, along with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks have a stranglehold on the position, and without an injury to someone, it will be difficult for Reynolds to actually show what he’s got. I then turn my eyes over to Gerald Everett, 3^rd year TE whom I think will be incorporated into the offense more this season. His receptions more than doubled last year from his rookie season, and he’s still not being drafted (ADP 276, TE31). Everett saw 50 targets last year and if that number can creep closer to the 70-80 mark, then he’s going to be a great low end TE-1 option this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? When you take the team that went to the Super Bowl last year and don’t make any changes, your opponents would literally have to be asleep for you to get some real value on them. I will mention that right now, Cooks (ADP 40, WR15, Woods (ADP 41, WR16) and Kupp (ADP 48, WR21) are all on the positive side of draft value right now, but none of them are a steal.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? In the spirit of this question, there isn’t really anyone on the Rams who are a genuine stud, considering Todd Gurley is not the player he once was. Of the three main WRs I mentioned, I think that Cooper Kupp has the best potential to become a top-10 WR, and he’s the “cheapest” of the three, so grab him in the 5^th round if he’s available.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? My breakout candidate, Gerald Everett, is unlikely to be drafted in most redraft leagues and will be available for those of you who are planning on streaming TEs this season. If he has a big first couple of games, then he’s likely to wind up sticking on someone’s roster for quite a while, so keep an eye out for him early.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Third round pick Darrell Henderson is currently on most people’s radar as the successor to Todd Gurley on the Rams. His current ADP of 86 and ranking of 113 shows me that his value is currently upside down and he should be avoided in drafts. The only reason to take him might be as a late round handcuff for Gurley, and that’s if you can get him at a more reasonable spot in the late 11^th or 12^th rounds. Henderson will come along, but let’s not ship Todd Gurley out of town just yet.

Seattle Seahawks

What’s changed since last year? The Seahawks let free agent RB Mike Davis walk, which should aid in clearing up their muddy backfield from last season. Chris Carson (ADP 51, RB21) has a clear path to the #1 spot, with Rashaad Penny (ADP 81, RB33) getting an increased role – I expect this to be a RBBC offense in no time. I also don’t expect either guy to really run away with a bulk of the carries, unless the other one is out with injury. The Seahawks also added one of the most hyped WRs in the draft, DK Metcalf, whom we’ll touch on in a moment. Needless to say, this should provide a boost to the passing game.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? For me, the guy to watch in Seattle is David Moore. Sure, they drafted a new WR, but Moore averaged over 17 yards per reception last season and is now in his third year in the offense. He should have a more active role with Doug Baldwin out of the picture and has a chance to really shine early before Metcalf can establish himself in the offense. His ADP of 286 tells me that he’s basically being ignored by drafters, so he’s available as a flyer at the end of deeper drafts.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? There’s no sleeper recommendations to draft on the Seahawks. Their main players, Lockett, Carson, Wilson and Penny are all being drafted around their rankings, and everyone else worthy of a flier will be available on the waiver wire.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There’s no sure-fire studs on this team. Russell Wilson is the only one who comes closest, and he’s being drafted towards the end of the 9^th round currently. I’m worried that he’s only cracked 4000 yards in two different seasons, and has never eclipsed 35 passing TDs. He does run the ball a lot, though he ran the ball only 67 times last season, a career low, and had no TDs on the ground. His redeeming stat is that he’s never missed a game in his career. I guess I just gave you all the reasons why their best player is still not a fantasy stud.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? I’ve mentioned him a few times now, but David Moore is going to be the hot waiver wire pickup from the Seahawks. Keep an eye out for him early, though if DK Metcalf has a hot start, it’s likely to keep Moore buried on the depth chart. You can also watch for Nick Vannett at TE, the most likely candidate from a really sad bunch of fantasy TEs on the team.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Seahawks spent their second round pick on DK Metcalf, a guy who perhaps had the most hype before the draft and then saw his stock really fall during the days leading into the draft. He was finally taken on the second day and is currently listed as a starting WR on their depth chart. His ADP of 112 (WR43) and Rank of 151 really have me hesitant to recommend taking him, as I really don’t see any value in picking him. I do expect him to be fantasy relevant, considering he’s replacing Doug Baldwin.

San Francisco 49ers

What’s changed since last year? Lots have changed for the 49ers! Jimmy Garoppolo is back, one year after tearing his ACL in late September 2018. Based on the QB play that the 49ers got out of Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard last season, having Garoppolo back could rocket their offense to a top 10 spot in the league. The 49ers also acquired Tevin Coleman, who is slated to be the starting RB. This is an offense that showed some huge signs last year and is finally ready to move forward with healthy, first option starters at QB and RB.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Dante Pettis is a 2^nd year guy who is most poised to have a big break-out season, though his hype is starting to be real all over the internet. His ADP is currently 80 and his consensus ranking is 77, so as a mid-rounder, he has a very high ceiling. Since he really has no rapport with Garoppolo, there is the reality that he does have a low floor, but signs so far in camp have been very positive for Pettis. He’s very likely to keep Marquise Goodwin at bay and will at least start the season ahead of the two rookie WRs that the 49ers drafted.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Nobody on the 49ers really has proper sleeper value, though I like where you can get Deebo Samuel (ADP 191, WR60) and Jalen Hurd (No ADP) – both rookies. They’re flyers in deep drafts and will definitely be drafted in dynasty formats.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? George Kittle, if you’re not reaching for him, could be your ticket to the fantasy postseason. His ADP of 29 (TE2) and rank of 23 even shows that he’s got a bit of value and I’d endorse taking him pretty much anywhere in the third round, if there’s no one else you like available right there (he’s ranked right next to Antonio Brown, I know who I feel more confident in).

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Since Garoppolo has been out for basically an entire season, the WR core for the 49ers is rather up in the air. Marquise Goodwin (ADP 219, WR67) as well as the rookies Samuel and Hurd are all guys who should be available on the waiver wire. Whoever does start to click with Garoppolo is likely to be gone, perhaps before the season even starts, so keep a close eye on these three guys.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The aforementioned Deebo Samuel, 2^nd round pick, and Jalen Hurd, 3^rd rounder, both will be looking to make their way onto the field this season. Samuel made a highlight reel worthy 45-yard catch over a defender in the first preseason game to set up a TD. Of course, Jalen Hurd would not be outdone and found the end zone twice in the same game. The future is looking good for this rookie combo and they should both find plenty of playing time in what looks like it will be a WR rotation. Once one or both of them gets established, they will certainly be fantasy relevant.

Arizona Cardinals

What’s changed since last year? Is everything a valid answer? Because nearly everything is different for the Arizona Cardinals. They have a new coach, Kliff Kingsbury, a new QB, Kyler Murray, and a hot rookie WR, Andy Isabella. They also got rid of JJ Nelson. The only recognizable parts of the offense are Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, though some people with deeper teams already have their eyes on Christian Kirk as well. Most importantly, the play caller and the signal caller are both new and this offense should look completely different than last year’s.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Christian Kirk is a 2^nd year WR who was drafted in the 2^nd round in 2018. He seems to be a pick to click for many pundits. He had 68 targets last season in 12 games, so over a full season with a bit of a boost, it’s completely reasonable to expect him to get at least 100 targets. The Cardinals were 29^th in the league in pass attempts, a number that’s bound to get a lot better with Kingsbury’s air raid offense. Kirk has an ADP of 77 (WR32) and is a very solid mid round pick up as the first WR off your bench, with potential to be a WR2.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? This is basically a brand new offense this season, so there’s not a lot of options yet. Johnson, Fitz, Kirk and Murray are all being drafted at or near their expected value. There’s nobody I would recommend drafting from the Cardinals as a sleeper.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There’s about to be a David Johnson renaissance in the desert. Johnson is currently at ADP 5 (RB5), Rank 5 and is basically being placed just outside the tier 1 RBs, but still ahead of any other position players on the board. I know you aren’t going to get great value for Johnson, but his production in a brand new offense that should know how to use an extremely talented and versatile player is too good to pass up. Johnson will be a stud this year, and considering the RB position is top-heavy, he’s the last man on the top that’s worth that early first round pick.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Andy Isabella has an ADP and rank of over 200, so he’s likely to be available on the waiver wire early in the season. Look for him to hook up with fellow rookie Kyler Murray as they try to develop a rapport for when the team needs to eventually replace Larry Fitzgerald. I would also keep an eye on Ricky Seals-Jones at TE since that position is so hard to pin down a top 10 guy there.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Well, just the first overall pick in the 2019 draft, Kyler Murray. Murray should be starting in week 1 and has already looked good in his first preseason game. He went an efficient 6 of 7 passing for 44 yards before exiting early, as is tradition in week 1 of the preseason. Murray will be the starter all year, and like most rookie starters at QB, is very unlikely to finish as a top 10 guy, but will be relevant as a streaming and backup option, as well as in 2-QB leagues. Andy Isabella was taken in the 2^nd round by the Cardinals, because when you get yourself a Lamborghini, you find some sweet accessories to go along with it. Isabella has a tougher road to regular playing time, but he should find his way on the field for a significant amount of targets this season and will be fantasy relevant by the middle of the year.