Week 9 has arrived and we're still square in the middle of bye-week hell. I hope that you can utilize these rankings to bolster your bench and make some smart decisions about fill-in players during these tough times toward the end of the fantasy season. Remember, we're going for the championship here! Fight through the tough stuff.
Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
5 Players over 30 Fantasy Points
Week 3 saw the return of big fantasy totals, with Russell Wilson leading the way at over 41 points. Unfortunately for Wilson, it was in a losing effort as most of the 4th quarter was basically garbage time for the Seahawks, who were trounced by the Brees-less Saints. We also saw newcomer Daniel Jones put up numbers we’ve never seen from a rookie before, throwing for over 300 yards and scoring 2 TDs through the air and another 2 on the ground. The big scoring numbers went deep, with the top 10 players all scoring at least 25 points, and the top 24 players all hitting at least the 20-point mark. This likely translated into fantasy success for lots of people, as the position players in the top 24 were all owned in at least 75% of Yahoo leagues.
4-4 Record
Rookie and Backup QBs were the big story this week, with 25% of NFL teams now having turned to either a rookie or a backup this season. Six of these guys were starting for the first time this week, and we saw Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen lead their teams to victories in games where they were not expected to do much of the heavy lifting. Jones and Allen were responsible for 4 TDs each, while Bridgewater played an admirable game manager. Elsewhere in the rookie watch this week, Kyler Murray did what he could, but was sacked 8 times and his first victory still eludes him. Next up is a home game against division rival Seattle – a softer target that you might have thought in the preseason. Finally, we’ve got our number 1 boy, Gardner Minshew II. Minshew led the Jaguars to victory in the annual Thursday night Crap Bowl sponsored by NFL network versus the Tennessee Titans. Minshew is playing so well that whispers of what to do with Nick Foles when he comes back have turned into full on serious conversations.
0.79 Points Per Target
49ers tight end George Kittle was part of the preseason “big 3” at his position, but he’s fallen quite short of that mark so far. In 3 games, he hasn’t topped more than 5.7 points, but is remarkably consistent, with 5.4 points in the other 2 games. His targets are there, he has 21 on the season, but he’s just not doing anything with them. This is very disappointing when you consider that only Travis Kelce (1.38 PPT) has made it into the top 10 from the preseason top 3. This means that lots of guys who you could have taken very late are doing quite well at the position. Leading the way at TE is Evan Engram, a high-volume guy who will probably maintain that role with his shiny new QB, leads all TEs in scoring with 39.70 points. The most efficient so far? That’d be Mark Andrews, who has a very nice 1.48 points per target, despite his very disappointing week 3 performance.
0.20 Fantasy Points
The once great John Ross has returned back to irrelevance, at least for one week. Going in to week 2, Ross led all WRs in fantasy points, but his 2 catches for 22 yards and a fumble have dropped him down to 7th overall at the position. He’s just behind DJ Chark, who is only owned in 41% of Yahoo leagues and will likely be this week’s hot WR pickup on the waiver wire. Chark has scored a TD in each of his first 3 games and is a clear favorite target of Gardner Minshew II. Elsewhere at WR, Davante Adams is having a very slow start to a season, which is surprising since the Packers are 3-0. Adams is averaging just 6.6 points per game and hasn’t found the end zone yet. Adams is lagging behind his usual pace of receptions and touchdowns since his 2016 breakout season, but his yards per game isn’t that terrible and his catch rate is as high as it’s ever been. Perhaps it’s just positive game script that’s keeping Adams from putting up big numbers. The Packers haven’t been challenged too much by their opponent’s offenses so far, so that’s translated into a quiet air attack so far this season. The Packers are 27th in pass attempts and passing yardage, which is bound to improve as the season goes on, so don’t fret, Rodgers and Adams owners.
0 Offensive TDs Allowed
The Patriots D/ST keeps putting up great performances, and it’s because their real-life defense has been stellar. Through 3 games, they have only allowed 3 points to opposing offenses, a field goal early in week 1. The D/ST has double digit points in each game so far this season, and a schedule with the Redskins, Giants, Jets and Browns coming up after this week’s meeting in Buffalo show that they have a decent shot at keeping this streak alive. In Week 3, the team did give up a pick-six and fumbled a punt in the end zone, both resulting in TDs for the Jets D/ST, who led the way with 16 points this week. The Jets have a bye coming up, so they are not useful just yet, but they have 3 TDs on the season and are tied for third in total points among all D/STs.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.
3 Allens are 3-0
There are three young QBs with the name Allen that all started (and won) yesterday. Josh Allen, whom we all know, led the Bills to victory over the Redskins yesterday. He threw for one score and got another on his own on the ground on the way to 17.6 fantasy points as the QB12 for this week and the highest scoring Allen. Just behind him was Brandon Allen, making his first NFL appearance at the age of 27 and grabbing a victory in the process. He threw for 193 yards and 2 TDs against the lowly Cleveland Browns and did just enough to win the game. Congrats to Brandon in his first start – though his career as a Bronco is not likely to last very long with his team at 3-7 and a rookie QB almost ready to start. Finally, we have Kyle Allen, one of the more surprising mid-season success stories this year. Allen threw for a couple of TDs, but more importantly, he gave Christian McCaffrey the ball 27 times, which is the most important part of the QB’s role on the Panthers. Allen is now 5-1 as a starter and will continue to hold the job next week when his team travels to Green Bay. Congrats to all the Allens this week!
11 Home Teams are 11-0
Going into Sunday, home teams were 57-65-1 across the NFL. Discounting the London game, where there is no real home team, every home team won on Sunday, going a perfect 11-0. There were some obvious ones here, like the Bills beating the dumpster fire from Washington and the Eagles holding on to beat the dumpster fire from Chicago. (I may not be creative, but I am accurate). There were also a few surprises, such as the Chargers playing like a real football team and running the ball down the Packers throat. The Chargers were in command the entire game and shut down Aaron Rodgers after one of his best two-game stretches of his career. The most impressive home victory came courtesy of the Baltimore Ravens, who put up as many points on the New England defense as they had surrendered in the previous 8 games. It wasn’t all easy for home teams, as the Steelers had to survive a missed FG to win the game, the Chiefs had to make a FG at the end to win and the Seahawks had to win in OT, but the true winners here are the Miami Dolphins, who finally got their first win of the season. Or are the real winners the Bengals, who now have sole possession of the first overall pick in next year’s draft?
25.55 Fantasy Points Per Game
This season, Christian McCaffrey is a fantasy madman. He’s currently averaging 25.55 points per game in standard scoring, which is nearly unheard of. He’s on pace to come very close to the season record in total scrimmage yards and already has 13 TDs. He’s already outpacing the next 4 RBs by a range of 30 to 80 points, and all of those players have played one more game than he has. We’re only halfway through the season here, folks, and McCaffrey is on pace to score over 400 fantasy points this year. The last time we saw that kind of performance was LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006, when he had 31 touchdowns. Since Tomlinson’s 2006 season, only 9 RBs have broken the 300-point mark, most of them just barely. McCaffrey, at his current pace, will reach (and pass) that milestone the very first day of December, while the rest of us are digging in to our Thanksgiving leftovers.
42% - Average Ownership of the Top 10 TEs
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. OK, don’t stop me, because yes, I am a broken record when it comes to pointing this out. This week, we saw another slew of random guys make up the top 10 scoring TEs of the week. This week featured Noah Fant (12% owned) leading the way with 17.5 points, helped along by a 75-yard TD. Jacob Hollister (1%) caught two touchdowns, one of them the game winner. Mike Gesicki (4%) and Nick Boyle (0%) complete the list of players who are owned in very few leagues, but made contributions to their teams. In fact, all 4 of these guys listed helped their team win. Honorable mention goes to Foster Moreau (0%) who caught one pass for a 3-yard TD, good enough to be the TE11 this week. Over the season, the active players in the top 10 at the position are owned in 90%+ of leagues (except Darren Fells, 63%), so I guess people are paying attention. The weekly chaos at the TE position is just begging for a further look and perhaps a change in how we incorporate them into fantasy football leagues.
39.22 Fantasy Points
With his stellar OT performance, Russell Wilson is now the first player this year to repeat as the top fantasy point scorer in a week. He also led the league back in Week 3 with 41.34 points. He now has 5 games (out of 9) with 24 points or more. His floor this season is 14.30 points, and he’s had between 14.3 and 16.6 points 4 times this year – a result of his team having a very strong run game. Despite this up-and-down nature of Wilson’s fantasy performances, he now leads all players in total points on the season with 225.50, though Lamar Jackson and the aforementioned Christian McCaffrey have played one fewer game and retain a higher per-game average. Wilson leads the league with just one interception and one fumble. His two total turnovers on the season is very impressive. The second-best players in turnovers are Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray (impressive for anyone, especially a rookie) with 4 total. Wilson has his team at 7-2, and they’re definitely the best looking second place team in the league. For Week 10, the Seahawks go to San Francisco for which is sure to be the best Monday night matchup of the season.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
37 Completions
Thursday night, the Bengals unleashed their #1 overall pick in a prime-time game – though if you didn’t have NFL network handy, you struggled to find it. Broadcast rights aside, this Browns-Bengals matchup was better than it had any business being. In only his second game of his professional career, Joe Burrow attempted 61 passes, completing 37 of them for 316 yards and 3 TDs with zero interceptions. The 37 completions are a record for rookie passers. Now, perhaps, the Bengals would like to consider acquiring a defense so that their rookie’s arm doesn’t fall off by the end of the season.
50 years
Raheem Mostert, one of 49 (probably) players injured for San Francisco, recorded a feat that hasn’t been done in over 50 years. He became the first player in 50+ years to score a TD of 75+ yards in the first two weeks of a season. Last week, he had a 76-yard TD reception, and yesterday he opened the game with an 80-yard TD run where he was clocked at a blazing 23.09 MPH. Seriously. Get in your car and drive 23 mph and see if anyone could possibly keep up. Hell, Mostert would have been speeding on the street that I grew up on. Limited to only 10 touches since apparently injuries are more contagious than Covid-19 to the 49ers, Mostert still sits as this week’s RB14, and the RB4 on the season. Hopefully Mostert can stay on the field as he has the two fastest speeds clocked by ball carriers this season – and they’re the fastest regular season numbers since 2016.
75,000 Yards
Tom Brady became the second player, behind fellow quadragenarian Drew Brees, to reach the 75,000 passing yards mark. Brady has yet to really impress in a fantasy football sense this season, but he did lead his team to an impressive victory over the, admittedly lame, Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The question of whether Brady still “has it” is unresolved in my mind, but he does win games, so we can go ahead and give him credit for this one. He does need to stop throwing interceptions – that’s 4 games in a row including the playoffs last year. Nonetheless, we celebrate Brady’s 75,000 yards, a distance so damn far that it would take Raheem Mostert nearly 2 hours (111 minutes) running at full speed to cover all those passing yards. You can tack on another 17 minutes to include his playoff yardage.
60+ Fantasy Points
So far in this short season, 4 QBs are averaging 30+ fantasy points per game. Leading the pack is no surprise, it’s Russell Wilson, who has an amazing 82.5% completion rate to go with 9 passing TDs already. It’s the 3 players who also average 30+ per game that may have you surprised. In order, you have Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray. Between them they have 8 rushing TDs, obviously an invaluable asset to fantasy football QBs. Amazingly, Cam Newton has landed here with only 1 passing TD in 2 games so far this season. Last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson sits just outside the top 10, just a few points ahead of 2020 Rookie of the Beginning of the Year Joe Burrow.
43.6 Fantasy Points
Aaron Jones is insane. This is the note that was my placeholder and I really can’t start this section any better. Since the start of last year, he has 13 games over 15 points (and 2 more games of 14.8 points). Two of those games are over 40 points, 8 of those are 22+ points or better. On Sunday, Jones was everywhere. He carried the ball 18 times for 168 yards, good for a 9.3 yards per carry average. He found the end zone twice on the ground and once more through the air, where he added 4 catches for 68 yards. His performance in Week 2 was so dominant over all other RBs that the difference between Jones and the RB2, Nick Chubb, is an entire Raheem Mostert – 17.8 points! If you take the highest non-QB, non-Jones scorer in Week 2, Calvin Ridley, you would need to increase his output by 65% just to reach Aaron Jones’s performance. This guy is insane, and the Packers are really, really good this year.