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23
September

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 3

The allure and grandeur of the start of a new season is starting to fade and we are now getting a better idea of how teams actually look. With it comes a week where we have some tough decisions on our hands. Most of the “sure thing” games have the favorite on the road, which never makes it a “sure thing”.

My best to those who have to make picks for a survival pool this week.

We’re not worried about that here though so let’s get some confidence!

Week 3 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – DALLAS over Philadelphia – You know it’s a week of good matchups when the Cowboys are sitting on the top line!

15 – CLEVELAND over Chicago – The Justin Fields era officially begins…and probably gets off to a rocky start.

14 – PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati – Joe Burrow had one of the worst games of his young career last week – not a good run to be on when you head to Pittsburgh.

13 – DENVER over New York Jets – The Giants…the Jags…and now the Jets…how were the Broncos so lucky to get this start to a season?

12 – BUFFALO over Washington – The Bills dominated a mid-level team who was playing their backup QB on the road last week….look for a lot more of the same at home this week.

11 – Carolina over HOUSTON – The surprise of the young season has been the Carolina defense. They should have no problem against a rookie quarterback making his first start with a questionable offense.

10 – Arizona over JACKSONVILLE – I don’t think anyone has spent more time looking at college yearbooks than Trevor Lawrence must have this season. Well, maybe Urban Meyer has.

9 – LAS VEGAS over Miami – Just like the first two weeks, I REALLY want to pick the Raiders…so this time I will :) My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that DEREK CARR WILL LEAD THE LEAGUE IN PASSING YARDS THIS SEASON.

8 – TENNESSEE over Indianapolis – I said last week that that Titans needed to show me something before I pick them – a win in Seattle is a pretty good “something”.

7 – Baltimore over DETROIT – After two incredibly dramatic games to start the season, Ravens fans should be able to breath a little

easier this week.

6 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Tampa Bay – The Rams are one of the few teams that will be able to keep up with the Tampa Bay offense.

5 – SAN FRANCISCO over Green Bay – Rodgers and Friends looked like their old selves last week. Can’t play the Lions every week though.

4 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – It’s weird having the Chiefs this low for a home game…but have they seemed like the same dominant Chiefs we’ve seen the last few seasons?

3 – NEW ENGLAND over New Orleans – I told you the Saints week 1 success was a fluke! The real Saints will continue to come marching in to week 3.

2 – MINNESOTA over Seattle – The Vikings may be the best 0-2 team in recent history.

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Atlanta – Daniel Jones has quietly been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the first two games. That should result in a win this week.

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14
October

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 6

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Just like last week with the London games, we have another aspect of the NFL schedule starting up this week – bye weeks!

This can play big in your season long pools. If you have had a solid start and are sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, you are loving bye weeks as the top numbers aren’t in play! You can’t have 15 and 16 point games where there are only 14 games played in a week!

On the flip side, if you need to make up ground, you need to make sure you hit as many picks as you can in a week.

Lucky for you, you’re reading my picks, so you’re good to go

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – INDIANAPOLIS over Houston – The fact that the Colts are on the top line this week show’s how good the matchups are this week!

13 – PITTSBURGH over Seattle – Do you really have any confidence in Geno Smith going cross-country for a prime-time game?

12 – Los Angeles Rams over NEW YORK GIANTS – This wouldn’t be close even with a full, healthy Giants offense.

11 – Dallas over NEW ENGLAND – As you are reading this, Trevon Diggs just intercepted another pass.

10 – Tampa Bay over PHILADELPHIA – I credit my mocking the Eagles last week for their win in Carolina…no way it happens against Tampa though.

9 – CAROLINA over Minnesota – This is based on Christian McCaffrey playing – if he doesn’t, feel free to drop the Panthers down the list…maybe even pick the Vikings.

8 – DENVER over Las Vegas – I’ll need at least a week after all of the off-the-field issues to have confidence that the Raiders can win a

game again.

7 – JACKSONVILLE over Miami – After the Falcons and Jets, London now gets to see the Jags and Dolphins!! … … … sorry London.

6 – Green Bay over CHICAGO – A big road win last week has the Bears looking better than most thought they would this year…which will just be motivation for Aaron Rodgers to bring them back down to Earth.

5 – Kansas City over WASHINGTON – At this point, pick the Chiefs to win on the road just seems like holding on to something that needs to be let go.

4 – BALTIMORE over Los Angeles Chargers – It’s scary to think that Lamar Jackson is having a better year than his MVP season. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that LAMAR JACKSON WILL FINISH WITH 4,000 PASSING YARDS AND 1,000 RUSHING YARDS THIS SEASON.

3 – CLEVELAND over Arizona – This is just going to be a fun game to watch!

2 – TENNESSEE over Buffalo – The way the Bills are playing, if you think they will lose, you better keep them on a lower point line.

1 – DETROIT over Cincinnati – I mean, I just feel bad for the Lions and their fans at this point – feel free to call this a pity pick.

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11
November

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 10

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

OK….so….um…about last week…

Well, seems like a good time to remind you that in most season long pools, your lowest score of the year is dropped. So, we’ll just use that benefit and move on!

Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – Yes the Jaguars beat Buffalo last week, but do you really expect them to win two in a row just scoring 9 points?

13 – DALLAS over Atlanta – When you lose as the top line team, you don’t get to be there the following week…but the Cowboys are playing the Falcons so they should still be pretty high.

12 – Buffalo over NEW YORK JETS – The Bills have learned their lesson when playing lower level teams.

11 – PITTSBURGH over Detroit – I don’t think the Steelers will need as much help from the refs to pull out the win this week.

10 – ARIZONA over Carolina – The second string Cardinals offense won in San Francisco last week, a depleted Panthers team has no chance.

9 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Minnesota – Off-field issues are going to catch up to the Vikings this week.

8 - Tampa Bay over WASHINGTON – I see Tom Brady having another huge game here…and it has nothing to do with the fact that I just traded away Leonard Fournette in one of my fantasy leagues.

7 – Baltimore over MIAMI – The Thursday Night primetime lights will remind the country that yes, Miami does still have a team…then the game will start to remind you they’re not good.

6 – TENNESSEE over New Orleans – It seems odd to say that the loss of Jameis Winston will cripple his team…but it will.

5 – NEW ENGLAND over Cleveland – I have no confidence that the Browns can win two tough road games in a row.

4 – LAS VEGAS over Kansas City – If the Raiders want to be considered a legit AFC West contender, they NEED to win this one.

3 – Los Angeles Rams over SAN FRANCISCO – Yes, the Rams added another fancy piece with OBJ, but will it really make a difference? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE RAMS WILL NOT WIN THEIR DIVISION.

2 – DENVER over Philadelphia – If you win in Dallas, then you get to be picked to win at home against a bad Eagles team.

1 – Seattle over GREEN BAY – Russell Wilson is coming back, Aaron Rodgers might not – that’s not a good combination for the Packers.

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12
September

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 1

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

statistically insignificant header image

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

45 Years Old

Tom Brady became the oldest player to start a game at 45 years hold. While this is not necessarily a fantasy stat, it’s appreciated by someone who feels themselves getting older all the time. There were also zero rookie QBs starting this week. Finally, it’s time for middle-aged men to shine.

10 Players Scoring 2-TDs Each

Through Sunday, there are 10 players who scored 2 TDs each, and in an interesting quirk, half of those players are free agents in the drinkfive fantasy league. Those players – Jamaal Williams, Dontrell Hilliard, Devin Duvernay, Jahan Dotson, and O.J. Howard – are free agents, owned in just an average of 29% of Fleaflicker leagues. Week 1 is always a fun time to revisit your entire draft and blow your team up with the waiver wire, so put your claims in now!

34.9 Fantasy Points

The high-water mark for Week 1 is 34.9 fantasy points – achieved by two players who are common subjects in this space. Patrick Mahomes threw for 360 yards and 5 TDs. Mahomes now has 18 touchdowns in 5 opening days, a low QB rating of 123.3 on opening day, has not thrown a pick, and is 5-0. Justin Jefferson also put up 34.9 fantasy points, having 9 receptions and 11 targets (on 9/11) and was one of the players who are owned in our league who had 2 TDs. His 184 receiving yards are a career high and his 15^th 100-yard game in his 34-game career.

8 D/STs with 10+ Points

Week 1 saw a lot of fantasy value coming from the defense/special teams slot. The Pittsburgh Steelers led the way with an astonishing 26 points. It helped a bit that they had a sack/fumble in bonus time to pad their numbers a bit. This performance was very impressive considering it came against the AFC Champion Bengals and Burrow had 2 more turnovers than he ever had in his career before. In an interesting tidbit, Burrow had the most rushing yards of his career in a single game. The Steelers are only owned in 51% of Fleaflicker leagues and play against New England next week, the offensive team that surrendered the second most points to their opposing D/ST in week 1.

5 WRs on New Teams with 14+ Points

Sometimes, a change of scenery works wonders. 5 Players on new teams – Tyreek Hill, Christian Kirk, Jarvis Landry, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams – all scored at least 14 fantasy points for their new teams. Both Brown and Adams put up monster games over 20 points, picking right up where they left off with new QBs. A.J. Brown had the most receiving yards for any Eagles player in their debut game. In a case of good old home cookin’, Michael Thomas played his first game for New Orleans in 21 months, and had his best performance since December 2019. Thomas scored 2 touchdowns on his way to 20.2 fantasy points, good for WR7 on the week.

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