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The Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8
02
November

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

47.6 Fantasy Points

 

For the second week in a row, we have a new season-high fantasy point scorer. Dalvin Cook defeated the Green Bay Packers, and he did not require a whole lot of help from the rest of his team. Cook touched the ball a whopping 32 times, had 226 yards from scrimmage, and scored 4 TDs. He led his team in both rushing and receiving on Sunday, which is impressive when you have two top WRs on your team. Of course, that’s likely to happen when you have 70% of your team’s total offense. Cook had an absurd 1.5 points per touch during the game. He was so efficient that Kirk Cousins only needed to attempt 14 passes – his second-fewest attempts in a start in his career. On the season, Dalvin Cook, the RB2, is averaging an impressive 1.14 points per touch, second only to Alvin Kamara who is the RB1 and averaging 1.16 per touch. They’re the only RBs in the top 10 who are averaging over 1 point per touch on the season.

 

5 of the Top 10 RBs

 

Using our drinkfive.com fantasy league as a metric, we see that this week, 5 of the top 10 RBs are not even rostered. It’s been an interesting week, setting aside the fact that Dalvin Cook outscored the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring RBs by 5.5 points. The probably-soon-to-be-rostered list contains DeeJay Dallas, Zack Moss, Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines (awesome TD celebrations buddy!), and Damien Harris. On average, they are only owned in 40% of Fleaflicker leagues but definitely helped you win the week if you were bold enough to insert any of them in your lineup. It was a low scoring week, where the RB2, Giovani Bernard, only topped out at 21.3 points. In fact, our guy Dalvin Cook was only 1.5 points shy of scoring as many as the 8th-10th ranked RBs on the week. The waiver wire will be active with RBs this week but remember that Dallas will be replaced by returning starters, Moss is in a split backfield, and Harris is on a team that is notoriously bad at sticking with one RB. Finally, I have no clue what to make of the Indy backfield. Clearly Jonathan Taylor has angered the gods (or just Chuck Pagano) in some hideous manner.

 

3rd Time as QB1 in 2020

 

Patrick Mahomes absolutely lit up the Jets, a minor league football team that plays its games out of New Jersey. For some reason, this game counts as an actual game in all historical statistics and for the official NFL record. Perhaps the most fun item from the game is that Le’Veon Bell, Chiefs running back, was the highest-paid Jets player on the field. He would have finished 2nd on the team in yards from scrimmage with a whopping 37 too. But I digress - two years ago, I gushed about Mahomes in nearly every weekly column, but he’s been mostly absent this year, so let me make up for that now. On Sunday, he had his best passing performance of the year, completing 31 of 42 passes for 416 yards and 5 TDs, good for a 144.4 passing rating. The latter number, of course, making little sense since his performance was basically perfect, but his rating was not. This is the third time this season that Mahomes finishes as the QB1 for the week. What’s amazing is that Russell Wilson, who has played 1 fewer game, is still the QB1 on the season, leaving Mahomes as the QB2 in fantasy football, but the QB1 in our hearts.

 

7-0 Steelers

 

There’s not a ton of fantasy numbers to crunch out of the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. This tends to be the case when your D/ST outscores all of your position players. As a team though, they are very impressive. Their 7-0 start is tied for the best in franchise history with the 1978 team, which won the Super Bowl. This team also has recorded at least 1 sack in 64 straight games (that’s 4 seasons) and is closing in on the all-time record of 69 games which was set by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the early 2000s. The lack of fantasy dominance in a dominant team is frustrating for casual fans, but not for Steelers fans, which the drinkfive staff is lousy with. On Sunday they got the best of Lamar Jackson, forcing his first-ever pick-six very early in the game and sacking him 4 times. The Ravens now fall to 2 games behind the Steelers, who should have a very easy time next week against the Cowboys, where, I can only assume, Ben DiNucci will be musing about what horses want when they are hungry.

 

7 TDs by Two Players

 

A few fun random stats that didn’t fit elsewhere. The Vikings-Packers game saw 7 touchdowns scored…by only 2 players. In addition to the aforementioned Dalvin Cook’s 4 TDs, Davante Adams was responsible for all three TDs for the Green Bay Packers. The Chargers lost after giving up a 17-point lead for the third time this season, an NFL record for consecutive losses. Tua Tagovailoa started and won, but it was about as ugly as it could be with just 5.72 fantasy points and none of his receivers reaching 20 yards. Drew Brees again holds the NFL record with 560 passing TDs, but perhaps only for a day. Tom Brady is at 559 and plays tonight against the hapless Giants. Finally, Tuesday is a very important day. The NFL trade deadline is at 4 pm ET. Oh yeah, there’s also a bit of an election going on. GO VOTE!

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 10
12
November

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 10

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

We have now reached double digits in the 2020 NFL season – we’re big boys and girls now!
 
Seriously though, in what has been the longest year in history, how is it that the football season has been moving at lightning speed? Not fair, world! Not fair at all!
 
So let’s not waste any more time!
 
Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!!
 
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
 
14 – GREEN BAY over Jacksonville – I think the Packers loosened up the cobwebs built up against the Vikings last week against the 9ers.
 
13 – NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco – Really hard to see the rough stretch for San Francisco ending in the Superdome. 
 
12 – PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati – A week ago you could see the Steelers in the top spot this week…but the struggles against the Cowboys gives us a little bit of hesitation – but not much. 
 
11 – LAS VEGAS over Denver – I’ll give Drew Lock some credit, he looked pretty good last week – but most of it was garbage time…against the Falcons in the 4th quarter. Take it with a grain of salt.
 
10 – Baltimore over NEW ENGLAND – If you struggle against the Jets, you have no chance against the Ravens.
 
9 – DETROIT over Washington – The Lions should be able to give fans false hope with a win against Washington. 
 
8 – CLEVELAND over Houston – A year or so ago you would have thought this would be an exciting matchup. Now…meh. 
 
7 – Tampa Bay over CAROLINA – The Panthers could really have used McCafferey against an angry Tampa Bay team. 
 
6 – MIAMI over Los Angeles Chargers – So, are the Dolphins legit? 
 
5 – TENNESSEE over Indianapolis – You know, whoever wins doesn’t matter – let’s all just be glad we get a solid Thursday matchup! Keep in mind though that Derrick Henry loves him a Thursday Night Game.
My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that DERRICK HENRY WILL HAVE OVER 200 YARDS RUSHING.
 
4 – Seattle over LOS ANGELES RAMS – Buffalo exposed some chinks in the Seahawks armor but I don’t think the Rams will be able to exploit them.
 
3 – Minnesota over CHICAGO – I hope I’m wrong, but this Bears’ team just seems too dysfunctional.
 
2 – ARIZONA over Buffalo – This is just going to be a fun game to watch!
 
1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia -  NFC East matchup – pick the home team and move on.

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 11
19
November

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 11

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL
Don’t look now but we are getting close to the end of the season.
 
If you are somewhere in the middle of your season long pool, now is the time to start making your move! Though, if you have been following the picks here – obviously you are towards the top :)
 
So let’s keep it rolling!
 
 
 
Week 11 – HERE WE GO!!!!
 
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
 
14 – Pittsburgh over JACKSONVILLE – Normally I’m not big on putting a road team on the top line. But, I mean, come on…
 
13 – MINNESOTA over Dallas – Not too much about the Cowboys makes me think they can stop the roll the Vikings have been on the last few weeks. 
 
12 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over New York Jets – Justin Herbert vs Sam Darnold – basically Darnold getting a chance to see what the Jets were hoping he would be. 
 
11 – CLEVELAND over Philadelphia – Two storied franchises ready to provide what I’m sure will be, well, a game.
 
10 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – No Brees, no problem when you’re going up against the Falcons. 
 
9 – TAMPA BAY over Los Angeles Rams – When was the last time we had three prime time games with six teams with a .667 or better win percentage? 
 
8 – BALTIMORE over Tennessee – Remember when the Titans seemed dominant? Now…not so much. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is thanks to the crowded AFC playoff race, THE TITANS WILL NOT MAKE 
THE PLAYOFFS.
 
7 – SEATTLE over Arizona – Arizona is looking good, but it is just too hard to see the Seahawks continue to struggle back at home.
 
6 – HOUSTON over New England –  Cam and friends looked good last week – I just don’t see them being able to do the same on the road.
 
5 – CAROLINA over Detroit – This is a battle of teams that can look like contenders or pretenders depending on the week. Lucky for the Panthers this is in Charlotte.
 
4 – Green Bay over INDIANAPOLIS – The Packers need a statement win – and I think Aaron Rodgers knows that. 
 
3 – Cincinnati over WASHINGTON – I am really excited to see Alex Smith win his first game as a starter…just won’t happen yet.
 
2 – Kansas City over LAS VEGAS – I was all set to pick the Raiders here, but when nearly your entire defense is placed on the COVID list, makes it hard to contain the Chiefs’ offense.
 
1 – DENVER over Miami – Just seems like a trap game that the Dolphins will fall into.
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 13
04
December

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 13

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL
I, for one, was close to just adding the Ravens/Steelers game to this week’s picks as well!
 
 
But, week 12 ended, and week 13 is right around the corner. It was a big plug to have football on a Wednesday afternoon. On the flip side though, it means we have to wait until Sunday for the next week to start…but then there will be an extra Monday game! And a Tuesday game!
 
At least…that’s how the schedule looks at this second! So before any other changes are made to the schedule, let’s get going!
 
Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!!
 
 
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
 
 
15 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – Well, at least the Broncos will have a quarterback this week!
 
14 – PITTSBURGH over Washington – The Steelers let an inferior Ravens teams hang around all game last week – I don’t see that happening again this week.
 
13 – GREEN BAY over Philadelphia – There is no reason to think the Packers won’t dominate this (sigh) potential playoff preview.
 
12 – SEATTLE over New York Giants – This matchup made me think and laugh a bit – whoever does get that elusive fifth win and take the NFC East crown – they will have to play a first-place schedule next season! 
 
11 – BALTIMORE over Dallas – Lamar is back…Dak is not! 
 
10 – MIAMI over Cincinnati – Unfortunately we don’t get the Tua/Burrow matchup we were hoping for. Lucky for the Dolphins they still have a little Fitzmagic in their back pocket. 
 
9 – MINNESOTA over Jacksonville – A home game against the Jags is something Minnesota desperately needs.
 
8 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over New England – I’m not saying that the Chargers are a playoff level team, but they are a lot better than their three win record shows.
 
7 – Buffalo over SAN FRANCISCO – It would be easy to put the Bills on a higher line playing on a neutral field, but it’s not like the 9ers are unfamiliar with the Cardinals stadium.
 
6 – TENNESSEE over Cleveland – It will be fun to see Derrick Henry collide with Myles Garrett.
 
5 – New Orleans over ATLANTA – It’s still No Brees No Problem in New Orleans
 
4 – CHICAGO over Detroit – Sure the Lions can pull this road win out, but at this point, the Bears are due to end the losing skid.
 
3 – Indianapolis over HOUSTON – The thought of being out of the running for the AFC South Championship better be enough motivation for the Colts.
 
2 – ARIZONA over Los Angeles Rams – This is just going to be a fun game to watch! 
 
1 – NEW YORK JETS over Las Vegas – I’m a Raiders fan…I know them…this is a game they lose. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is, simply put, THE JETS WILL WIN A GAME!
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