Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playoff Season!

For more than 50% of players, this means that your season is…well…over! Well that’s kind of a bummer!

Have no fear though, the Confidence Pool has no playoffs! Even if you are sitting in the bottom of your league long standings (which you shouldn’t be if you have been following along here!) you still have a chance at a payout every week!

Week 14 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – Hopefully, for the Lions 2020 hopes, this will be the nail in the coffin that puts Matthew Stafford on the IR.

15 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants – Eli’s back! Should help Saquon be Saquon again…but it won’t be enough in Philly.

14 – GREEN BAY over Washington – It’s been a while since we have seen a big yardage day from Aaron Rodgers. So, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that AARON RODGERS WILL THROW FOR AT LEAST 400 YARDS THIS WEEK.

13 – HOUSTON over Denver – The Texans need to win to keep pace with the Colts and Titans. The Broncos need to focus on getting a high draft pick.

12 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami – It was only a month ago when the Dolphins beat the Jets for their first win, but this seems like a different Jets team.

11 –Pittsburgh over ARIZONA –This Steelers team seems like a good candidate for a Disney movie the way they still win after losing so much.

10 – OAKLAND over Tennessee – The Raiders need this game and they know it. Look for Derek Carr to bounce back in a big way.

9 – Dallas over CHICAGO – Can’t play the Lions every week, Bears!

8 – CLEVELAND over Cincinnati – Baker is hurt for the Browns but, I means, they’re playing the Bengals.

7 – ATLANTA over Carolina – If you listened to the DrinkFive podcast this week, you know my feelings on picking Falcons games.

6 – TAMPA BAY over Indianapolis – We’ll make this our Hunch of the Week.'

5 – Seattle over LOS ANGELES RAMS – These two teams have basically flipped roles from where they were last year.

4 – Kansas City over NEW ENGLAND – Remember last year’s AFC Championship game? So do the Chiefs!

3 – JACKSONVILLE over Los Angeles Chargers – This game will happen. Maybe it will be exciting – who knows?

2 – San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS – Is it me, or do the Saints lack the dominance factor when they play in the Dome lately?

1 – BUFFALO over Baltimore – This should be a good one and I think the Bills can find a way to pull out the upset.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

16 Total TDs

Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 on the season, and the second highest scoring player among all fantasy football players. He and Josh Allen have supplanted Jalen Hurts at the top of the overall list, and now I can stop trash talking Jalen Hurts and let him just be bad in Philadelphia. Oops, maybe I’ll stop now. Anyways, Taylor has a league leading 16 total TDs on the season. He also leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,541. He has 35 more fantasy points than the next highest non-QB, Cooper Kupp – though Kupp has had a bye, and Taylor’s is coming up in Week 14. Taylor has an average of 22.2 points per game, still shy of Derrick Henry (still the 7^th highest point total among non-QBs) – who would just be the biggest story in the NFL if he had remained healthy and continued the pace that he was on. Back to Taylor, who nearly had a remarkable record. Last week he tied LaDanian Tomlinson with 8 straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards and 1 TD. In week 12, he came just 3 yards short of extending that streak to a record breaking 9 games.

2 Receptions for the WR1

This week’s stupid technicality stat comes to us courtesy of the most impressive hybrid player in the league, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson has had RB and WR eligibility the entire season, and it makes sense, because he’s both! He is the WR7 on the season and the RB8, yet he only has one game over 100 receiving yards, and 1 game – this week – over 100 rushing yards. He does have 6 games over 100 total yards (including return yards, he really does do it all) and has 9 total touchdowns. He’s achieved at quite a high level all year and has huge season long totals, despite having missed one week on bye, and another week with an injury. It’s very rare for a player to finally break out in his 9^th season, on his 5^th team. Patterson is someone that offensive coordinators have tried to unlock all over the league, and it’s one of the least likely storylines this season that the Falcons offense, of all teams, have managed to figure out how to make him one of the top 10 offensive weapons in the entire league. Perhaps the credit should fall to Patterson himself, considering the Falcons offense is 27^th in total points and 26^th in total yards.

10 TEs over 10 Points

Most weeks you can find 8-10 TEs scoring at least double-digit points, so that’s perhaps not the most impressive stat I can provide you here. What I am proud of is that 6 of those 10 tight ends are owned in the drinkfive fantasy league. Unfortunately, none of the next 10 are rostered, giving us a 30% hit rate among the top 20 tight ends for week 12. In a cruel twist of ownership, 8 of the top 11 TEs that are the most owned TEs in all of Fleaflicker scored just 4.3 points or fewer (Darren Waller gets the ominous distinction of being the tallest…er…bad tight end this week). Jack Doyle led the way this week, in the second lowest TE1 score that we’ve seen all season long (T.J. Hockenson’s 13.9 points in week 8 get that award). Tonight’s game should see the return of Logan Thomas, who averaged 9 points per game, so at least there’s a bit of quality returning to the TE pool.

2 Losing Teams Over 200 Rushing Yards

Back when the NFL was a run-heavy league, a team that got to 200+ rushing yards was almost guaranteed a win. This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans both dominated their opponents on the ground, but were unable to turn that into control of the game. They both lacked a clear lead in the time of possession, and ultimately, on the scoreboard. The only other team that rushed for at least 200 yards was the San Fransisco 49ers, who did dominate the time of possession, still needed to cash in on two quick turnovers by the Vikings in the 3^rd quarter to take control of the game in order to use the rushing attack to their advantage. In both the Eagles’ and Titans’ case, their problem was terrible QB play that prevented them from scoring points. Neither team could top 130 yards passing, both of them threw the ball to the other team, and both had an abysmal completion percentage to boot. The NFL is a game of passing attacks with the run game complimenting it, just ask the Raiders with Derek Carr’s 6-0 record when he throws for at least 300 yards. They are 0-5 when he does not reach the 300-yard mark.

2 TDs in 4 Straight Games

Joe Mixon is quietly keeping his team firmly in the playoff chase with a feat that has not been seen for 15 years in the NFL. Mixon has 2 touchdowns in 4 consecutive games now, with 13 total on the season. Mixon has scored every single week since week 4, and only has 2 games this season where he did not find the end zone. He has at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and is now sitting as the RB3 on the season. He is just one of 5 non-QBs that have eclipsed the 200-point mark for the season. He has picked up where his rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase has left off. Chase started out the season on a tear, but has not gone over 50 yards in each of his last 4 games (since he blew up for 201 yards) and those are his 4 lowest totals on the season. Joe Burrow, likewise, has struggled lately, throwing only 2 TDs in the last 3 games, with 3 INT over that same time period (one of those going back to the house the other way). Mixon IS the Bengals offense at this point, and has a matchup coming up against the Chargers, giving up the 5^th most points to opposing RBs.