Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 8 Preview: The Deadline Looms...

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes (knee) – Although originally the news of Mahomes’ injury and subsequent chatter from the team carried with it a more conservative amount of time off the field (3-6 weeks), the latest reports have been much more optimistic. A limited practice today has some people crying for a miracle (which is only being compounded by Andy Reid refusing to rule him out for Sunday against the Packers), but let’s be honest with ourselves… Mahomes won’t play this week, but will likely suit up for Week 9 or 10, well before their bye in Week 12. In the meantime, Matt Moore (4% owned) will fill in under center. Matt Moore seems like a nice guy, but he is a veteran backup that has always been below the Andy Dalton line when filling in as a starter. Don’t expect him to perform anywhere near the level of a QB1 over the next couple of weeks. The rest of the offense needs to be downgraded as well, except perhaps for Travis Kelce. He’s cool.

Sam Darnold (toenail) – After facing too many ‘ghosts’ in the blowout loss against New England, Darnold had a toenail removed but should be on track to play against the Jaguars this week. Hopefully his confidence has not been completely broken by Belichick’s Patriot Death Squad, because Darnold has been shaping up to be a great young QB in an up-and-coming offense. We’ll see!

Matt Ryan (ankle) – Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this year except for last week’s performance when he sprained his ankle and was taken out.  Dan Quinn is not being very specific about the timetable for this injury, but Ryan is tentatively expected to start practicing soon and be available for Week 8. This is a situation worth monitoring, as its possible with 5 straight losses that they may let him sit for longer as not to risk a longer-term injury by playing when he’s not at 100%.

Cam Newton (foot) – Still out, the undefeated Kyle Allen (8% owned) will keep the reins to the Carolina Panthers’ offense (read: Christian McCaffrey) for a little while longer. The 49ers defense has been playing lights out this year, and if Allen can pull off another win, we may not see Newton back for even longer, if this season at all. That said, a loss could put Newton right back in the driver’s seat if he can prove to be healthy once more after a week’s worth of practices.

Mason Rudolph (concussion) – Rudolph will start against everyone’s favorite team to start players against in fantasy this year... the Dolphins! He cleared the concussion protocol last week and should be doing a lot of handing the ball off to James Conner and trying to get JuJu going in the offense. If there is any game to start Rudolph in this year, it’s this one.

RUNNING BACKS

David Johnson (back/ankle) – Fantasy owners of David Johnson around the world could be heard swearing in front of their TVs in Week 7, after Johnson started the game but immediately afterwards ceded his snaps to backup Chase Edmonds (75% owned). Edmonds then played the game of his life, putting up 126 yards on the ground for 3 TDs and adding 24 yards through the air on top of that. The biggest waiver wire pickup of the week (along with Ty Johnson and Kenny Stills), it remains to be seen whether David Johnson will practice this week, but I feel confident not playing him in this kind of fluid situation after last week’s debacle and the Cardinals signing Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner to back up Edmonds.

Kerryon Johnson (knee) – Johnson has just 5 carries for 23 yards before exiting the game against the Vikings last week – but hey, that’s better than David Johnson, right? What’s that? You started both? Ouuuuuch. There were certainly some bad starting scenarios out there this week with some major players getting injured early. It looked like Johnson may be out for a few weeks, but he ended up requiring surgery on his right knee that put him on injured reserve. The earliest return possible would be Week 16 against the Broncos, so he should be dropped in all redraft leagues at this point. Ty Johnson (65% owned) will slot in immediately as the starter, but it may end up being more of a committee with J.D. McKissic (21% owned) also involved. Remember as well, that Jay Ajayi, CJ Anderson, Spencer Ware, and Kenyan Drake are all still viable options to be signed (or traded, in Drake’s case) to the team. I think Drake is the most likely, as he’s clearly healthy, talented, and available – and also just the type of running back that the Lions seem to like.

Ito Smith (concussion) – Already ruled out for Week 8, Brian Hill (0% owned) will back up Devonta Freeman against Seattle. I expect Freeman to handle the majority of snaps in what could be a decent game for him. Perhaps his first rushing TD? No, I don’t own him anywhere – I swear!

Adrian Peterson (ankle) – Getting over a high-ankle sprain, and with Chris Thompson (turf toe) also sidelined, we may see Wendell Smallwood (1% owned) suck up some snaps like a Dyson. I would not put any faith in Peterson’s ability to get the job done. That said, I also don’t have any faith in the Washington Redskins, so this is probably all a situation to be avoided if possible.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Will Fuller (hamstring) – Out with a hamstring.. soft tissue injuries often plague the fast, downfield wide receivers in the NFL and Fuller is certainly no stranger to injuries that can keep you off the field for weeks at a time. The word on the street is that this is a “significant” hamstring pull, which is a big reason why Kenny Stills (47% owned) was a top waiver pick this week. Stills can play a similar role to Fuller and has already shown chemistry with Watson. Look for both Stills and Keke Coutee (18% owned) to have larger roles going forward in this offense with Fuller sidelined for a few weeks.

Adam Thielen (hamstring) – It’s that time of year… couldn’t have happened at a worse time for Thielen either, as Cousins has been reading too many internet forums about his poor performance and inability to pass the ball downfield so he has gone the opposite direction over the past few weeks. This injury doesn’t seem as long-term or serious as Will Fuller’s, but in the meantime 7^th round rookie WR Olabisi Johnson (4% owned) has been catching on as the WR3 in Minnesota and will have more opportunities this week with Thielen out. A sneaky play, starting Johnson will carry a lot of risk.

Christian Kirk (ankle) – Kirk has been limited in practice for the past two weeks and will likely be a game-time decision against the Saints in Week 8. Yeah, just what every fantasy team manager wants to hear, right? I think he’ll play but any setbacks will have him sitting out once more which puts a big strain on the Cardinals’ passing offense.

A.J. Green (ankle) – The latest is that Green will return after the bye week, although quite a few industry insiders have him pegged for a trade before the deadline next week. The Bengals certainly don’t want to do anything to interfere with their draft position next year.

Davante Adams (toe) – Another game-time decision is in the works here for Adams, and since he plays on Sunday night it’s probably not something that you want any part of unless you have another option also going in that game or on Monday. At this point a return for Week 9 is most likely for Adams.

Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – Chairman of the mid-season pulled hamstring club is Sammy Watkins, but he has been practicing and should start this week against the Packers. He’s always an option to blow up, but Watkins is not a recommended play this week.

Tyrell Williams (foot) – Back at practice, Williams has been missing since Week 4 but there has not been a game he played in where he didn’t score a TD. Against Houston this week, look for Williams to rise in the WR rankings a bit before kickoff on Sunday.

TIGHT ENDS

Delanie Walker (ankle) – Basically playing injured last week, Walker had to exit the game after halftime and wasn’t even targeted in the passing game. Jonnu Smith (4% owned) is going to be the starting tight end there for the foreseeable future and there is a clear case here to consider dropping Walker entirely, when considering his age and injury history.

Jared Cook (ankle) – Cook and Bridgewater have finally started to show some chemistry over the past few weeks, and the Saints go up against the leaky Cardinals’ defense in Week 8… unfortunately, Cook was sidelined last week with an ankle injury and has not yet practiced this week. Look for him to practice on Friday because he would be a great option at TE if available.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

80 Touchdowns

With 10 TD throws in his first two games of the season, Patrick Mahomes is now on pace to throw a cool 80 touchdowns on the year. Give him the MVP right now, because he's going to beat Peyton's record by 25. On a serious note, he's going to need to keep this pace up if his defense keeps playing like...well, like crap. The Chiefs D have given up 65 points in two weeks, and sure, those opponents were playing catch-up, but giving up over 1000 yards is alarming to say the least. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are 2-0 behind the strength of a historic start. Mahomes joins only Drew Bledsoe with at least 4 TD in each of his first 2 games to start the season...and also our next, magic man.

4 TD and 400 Passing Yards

The Fitzmagic is real, folks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the only QB in league history to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs in the first two games of the season. Along the way, he's thrown 4 TDs of at least 50 yards or more and even put one in on the ground - all by himself! The Buccaneers season so far has consisted of blowing out their division rivals New Orleans, and then taking down the Super Bowl champs, two events that really mean that Jameis Winston will not be returning to the starting lineup in Week 4. The Bucs are one of several 2-0 teams that are a surprise, like Miami and Cincy. Unlike those two teams, the Bucs look like they could actually be the best team in their division. Finally, congrats to DeSean Jackson, who tied Jerry Rice for the most 60+ yard TDs, notching his 23rd against his old team on a 75-yard catch and run on the first offensive snap of the game.

28 Receptions in Two Games

If you own Michael Thomas in a PPR league, you're definitely happy with his two straight 30+ point performances. His 28 catches in two games are 10 more than the next closest players - a 3-way tie between Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Adam Thielen. Thomas has been targeted 30 times and he is catching everything that comes his way. He's basically the entire receiving core of the team. Aside from Alvin Kamara's 15 catches, Thomas has more receptions than the rest of the team combined (21). He's a cool 20 points ahead of the next closest WR, and is second overall in PPR fantasy points, only behind the afore mentioned Fitzmagic. He's on pace for well over 200 catches, smashing the record of 143 by Marvin Harrison. This is, of course, an absurd (but fun) extrapolation.

8.4 Yards per Carry

This year's early season rushing leader is not one that many people predicted. Matt Breida has 184 yards on only 22 carries. His usage is mostly thanks to the absence of Jerick McKinnon, but he's making the most of it. The 49ers have given him 11 carries in each game, and I expect that number to go up. They should have given him more carries in the 4th quarter to help ice the game away, so I expect his production to continue improving. His next three games are against the Chiefs, Chargers and Cardinals - all teams that have a very porous defense. Breida is only owned in 61% of Yahoo leagues, so while not a hidden gem by any means, he is a guy who needs to be in starting lineups in most, if not all leagues.

1 out of 10 Tight Ends

This season, the top 10 TEs have been the model of inconsistency. Only one of the top 10, Eric Ebron, has more than 6 points in both games this season. Most guys have one big game and one dud, not great, but you'll take it. What makes Ebron's consistency surprising is that he went into the season and wasn't considered the top TE on his own team - that belonged to Jack Doyle. Doyle has been targetted more than Ebron, but hasn't been productive. Meanwhile, Ebron has managed to find the end zone in each game and may become a favorite target of Andrew Luck, who had a good showing in Washington on Sunday. Only Will Dissly has a chance to save some face for his positional group, when he suits up tonight in Chicago.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

2 Records to Start the Season

Last week, we checked in on Patrick Mahomes and Michael Thomas's blistering starts. This week, they both continued their record making/breaking pace. Mahomes now has 13 TD to start the season, the most by anyone ever. He's averaging over 30 points per game, leading all non-magical quarterbacks. He'll get Denver in week 4, his toughest match so far, but certainly one where he can keep up his pace. Meanwhile, Thomas added another 10 receptions to his season total, bringing it to 38. All of this on just 40 targets - he's almost having a perfect season. He's still on pace for over 200 receptions, a ridiculous number, but I'm just a sucker for ridiculous early season extrapolation.

565 Field Goals Made

Kickers rarely make this column, but I'm generally OK with making an exception for future hall-of-famers. Adam Vinatieri went 3 for 3 in Philly on Sunday to tie Morten Anderson's all time record of 565 field goals made. Congrats to Adam, for completing this in just your 23rd season. Yea, Adam was kicking field goals way back during Clinton's first term in office. Anderson played even longer - he was drafted before I was born, and kicked his last FG after my 26th birthday. Vinatieri will probably pass Anderson's record for most points, as he's only 33 behind him now. Will a kicker make this column twice in one year?

Over 40 Fantasy Points

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have now faced off something like 20 times, and Sunday might have been the highest scoring affair of all of them. Both QBs managed to top 40 fantasy points in a game, combined for 770 passing yards and 10 total TDs. The Saints have been coming from behind in every game this year, and it's resulted in some huge fantasy production. Not only the afore mentioned Brees and Michael Thomas, but Alvin Kamara is living up to his draft stock and has the 2nd most points among RBs. For the Falcons, this is Matt Ryan's best game since 2016, and the first time that he's thrown 5 passing TDs in one game. Three of those went to Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley, who put up a 7 for 146 line and will be the waiver wire darling of the week. He was only 22% owned in Yahoo leagues going into Sunday's games, so look for him in your league this week.

5th Most Points in Week 3

One of the best performances of the week belongs to a guy owned in just 3% of Yahoo leagues. He's responsible for the biggest upset of the season so far, and the destroyer of survivor pools. That's right, it's Josh Allen, Buffalo's rookie QB. Allen was an efficient 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and no picks, while running in two on his own. I'm not saying you go out and pick him up, but it was enough to beat the Minnesota Vikings, who were favored by 16.5 points. This is now two straight weeks of just 3 points for the Vikings DST, which has to now go face the Rams on a short week. This is probably the time to move on and stream another team. It still remains to be seen if the Vikings are really this bad, or if they just got caught looking ahead to the next game.

3 of the top 10 TEs

Using the drinkfive fantasy league as a measuring stick (standard scoring, 10 teams), only 3 of the top 10 TEs this week are even on teams. This week's top 10 TE list is dominated by guys owned in 2% or fewer of Yahoo leagues. Dallas Goedert led the way with a measly 13.3 points, and was only one of three guys to hit double digits. Both OJ Howard and Jesse James have a shot at that tonight, bringing a little stability to a position that has some of the worst production it's seen in years. At this point, I feel that playing a TE is just a dart throw and a hope that he will find the end zone. Streaming a TE this season seems more relevant than ever, and I would definitely go that route if you are not getting the production you want out of the TE slot.

Well, we've officially made it to championship week - this year has had more ups & downs than usual due to COVID-19, but the season went on! And now it's up to you to make those all-important final decisions that will carry you to victory and secure the fantasy football championship (or 3rd place) in your league(s). Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Top guys for this week? Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce. What else is new? :) Some sleeper candidates include Matt Ryan, Leonard Fournette, Rashard Higgins, and Tyler Higbee.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!