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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 18
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 17
David Biggs's Week 17 Rankings
David Biggs's Week 16 Rankings
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 16
The Rookie Report: Week 16 Starts & Sits
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 15
David Biggs's Week 15 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 15 Starts & Sits
The Rookie Report: Week 14 Starts & Sits
David Biggs's Week 14 Rankings
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 14
The Rookie Report: Week 13 Starts & Sits
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 13
David Biggs's Week 13 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
NFL Survivor Pool: Week 5
10
October

NFL Survivor Pool: Week 5

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

A few big upsets in week 4 and the field has dwindled to 790, a little less than half of the original entrants. If the Bengals wouldn't have been able to complete their comeback Thursday against the Jags half of the remaining survivors would have been eliminated. As expected, the top pick Buffalo Bills with 420 selections blazed their way through the Texans 40-0. But sadly my secondary pick fell short when the Titans couldn't pull out a late comeback against Jets in OT. To my surprise the Jets 1st win was only the second biggest eliminator of the week, with 146 losing on the Saints compared to 123. The Titans showed me they are too weak to trust against the Jaguars even with all the distractions. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice.... you can't get fooled again.

 

A team that did impress me last week were the New England Patriots and there stout defense against the Tom Brady and the Bucs. This defense will give the rookie Mills fits and the Pats offense will score enough to pull off this road win. I went back and forth between Pats and Vikings for this pick. But last week the Vikings offense got shut down and for some reason I'm not comfortable picking against Detroit here. The Pats won out here because picking against Houston and getting to use a middling team like the Pats was too good to pass up.

 

Another strong pick is the Cowboys, but I think I'll be able to find a better spot to use them.

Cheers DrinkFive!

 

 

ENTRY #1                               ENTRY #2

            RAMS                                   BUCCANEERS

            BUCCANEERS                       BROWNS

            BRONCOS                            CARDINALS

            BILLS                                  TITANS

            PATRIOTS

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 4
04
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 4

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

5 Rushing TDs

 

Nearly a quarter into the 2021 season, the league’s leader in rushing touchdowns is certainly not someone anyone expected. Sam Darnold now has 5 total rushing TDs on the season after back-to-back 2 TD games. He’s also got 5 total passing TDs, but his two INTs yesterday cost his team their perfect record.  But hey, fantasy football isn’t all about wins and losses. Darnold was the QB1 on the week, just edging out Patrick Mahomes and his 5 passing TDs. Darnold is now the QB5 on the season, just a fraction of a point behind Tom Brady for 4th. Darnold is a game manager who just happens to be scrambling into the end zone at the right moments. His 20 carries for 58 yards on the year do not inspire confidence in his rushing abilities. My advice to you is to package Darnold in some sort of trade where you can sell him at his highest value of the season, especially before Christian McCaffrey comes back and the ground game takes over the Panthers' offense once again.

 

32.1 Fantasy Points

 

Cordarrelle Patterson is continuing his spectacular season. The 2013 first-round pick has bounced around the league for 9 years, and now finally on his 5th team, it seems like they have unlocked his offensive abilities. Patterson finished Week 4 as the RB1 on the week, and sits as the RB2 on the season, behind only Derrick Henry (who is on pace for nearly 2,700 yards from scrimmage). Patterson’s 5 TDs is the highest total he’s had since his rookie season (and tied with Sam Darnold for the league lead). His 45 touches and 354 yards from scrimmage are both more than halfway to career highs. It’s pretty rare that a player can blow away their season-best stats 9 years into their career. He’s still only owned in 70% of Fleaflicker leagues, so I imagine that the rest of the leagues will be frantically scrambling on the waiver wire to pick him up.

 

4 of the Top 6 Quarterbacks are Free Agents

 

In fantasy football, we’re used to positional volatility. We might expect a bunch of the top-scoring kickers, defenses, or tight ends to not be on any team in a given week. What we generally don’t expect is that to be true for the quarterback position. Using our drinkfive.com fantasy league for reference, we find that 4 of the top 6 QBs in week 4’s scoring were all free agents. This includes the week’s top scorer, the aforementioned Sam Darnold (56%), Matt Ryan (76%), Taylor Heinicke (34%), and Daniel Jones (60%). We also find the most owned QB, Tom Brady (98%) put up a whopping 11.06 points, despite 43 passing attempts. So, it’s sometimes a crapshoot, even at the most consistent position in the game. That’s what makes fantasy football so much fun (and aggravating), isn’t it?

 

10% League Ownership

 

Want some positional volatility? The tight end position has it in droves. This week’s top scorer, C.J. Uzomah (another candidate for a late-career break-out) is owned in only 10% of Fleaflicker leagues. His monster game on Thursday night helped propel the Bengals to victory. 5 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TDs gave him a total of 24 fantasy points, almost 6 points more than the next highest scorer. Among the top 5 scoring TEs so far this week, their ownership caps out at 58% for Dalton Shultz. The average ownership is only 29%. When we look at the TEs who are owned in at least 90% of leagues (we must exclude Gronk and Waller, who did not or have not played yet), we find that they only scored an average of 6.6 points. This is going to be the season that benefits QB and TE streamers the most.

 

8-100 Yard Rushing Performances

 

With all of this craziness, let’s check out a position that’s all chalk, shall we? This week, there were 8–100-yard rushing performances by running backs. Every single one of those players are owned in at least 92% of Fleaflicker leagues. In fact, if you expand that list to include all-purpose yards, there were 13 such games by running backs. All but one, Cordarrelle Patterson (who led in both AP yards – the guy Is still returning kicks, and points) are owned in at least 89% of leagues. This consistency at the running back position is probably the most predictable thing in all of fantasy football this year. Even the WR position has some wacky stuff going on, like Randall Cobb’s 21.4 points, good for WR6 on the week and helping exactly nobody since he’s only owned in 24% of leagues. This is certainly an important week to work the waiver wire!

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pickfive: 5 Pickups for Week 5
04
October

pickfive: 5 Pickups for Week 5

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!

 

Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

 

5) Samaje Perine (CIN) - 3% owned – Joe Mixon’s status for week 5 is in doubt after spraining his ankle which would push Perine into a high volume game against the Packers for week 5.  There shouldn’t be much competition with the only other RB on Cincinnati’s roster being rookie Chris Evans who has yet to record a carry this season.

 

4) Jamison Crowder (NYJ) - 20% owned – It was a strong season debut for Crowder catching 7 of 9 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown.  He should continue to have opportunities to produce fantasy points on a Jets team likely to be playing from behind more often than not with a quarterback in Zach Wilson that has shown a tendency to target the slot.

 

3) Dalton Schultz (DAL) - 34% owned – Schultz has been putting up monster numbers the past couple of weeks catching 12 of 15 targets for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns over that span.  Look for him to continue his streak against a Giants team giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

 

2) Latavius Murray (BAL) - 48% owned – Ty’son Williams was a surprise inactive in week 4 leaving Murray to be the top running back on the Ravens depth chart.  He’s worth the add if available despite the risk of a further running back committee.

 

1) Damien Williams (CHI) - 9% owned – David Montgomery looks likely to miss some time with a knee injury opening up the opportunity for Damien Williams in a run-heavy offense.  He should be picked up if needing running back help on your team in the upcoming weeks.

 

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Injuries & Notes for Week 5
05
October

Injuries & Notes for Week 5

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Week 4 was not kind to many across the league. Only one undefeated team remains, Tom Brady barely escaped Foxboro with a victory, Matt Nagy has saved his job for another week, Urban Meyer might have lost his job (certainly his locker room), and we learned that even domes can have weather delays. Not sure who to thank for that last one, probably El Niño. Regardless, let's get updated on what you need to know going in to Week 5.

 

  • Jimmy Garoppolo was initially thought to have a multi-week calf injury and exited Sunday’s game after a lackluster performance. Garoppolo has not been very good this year, not topping 20 fantasy points in any game. NBC Sports Edge even went as far as to speculate that Garoppolo had played his last snap with the 49ers immediately after the game. Trey Lance threw a pair of TDs, threw for 157 yards and rushed for an additional 41. The news on Tuesday was that the injury to Garoppolo is not as bad as they thought, and that he might play Week 5 against the Cardinals. Frankly, I can’t understand why they would rush him back to play in that situation when the 49ers are on bye the following week. Trey Lance is probably their best chance in a shootout and in my opinion SHOULD be the starter.

 

  • Josh Gordon is back!!! He was probably already picked up in your league by that one guy who is still living in 2013. Tuesday, he was promoted to the 53-man roster on the Chiefs and is worth a stash spot on your bench since he’s on the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league. 

 

  • David Montgomery is going to be out 4-5 weeks which should land him on the IR, providing a little bit of roster relief for those leagues that are taking advantage of the new rules. Montgomery had a huge share of the Bears rushing attempts, and also had his best game on Sunday, running up over 100 yards and 2 TDs. This loss is definitely going to hurt and I don’t expect there to be a direct replacement for him. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert will fill in for him while he’s gone, with Williams likely to get the majority of the work.

 

  • Teddy Bridgewater left the game at halftime on Sunday and entered concussion protocol. Going into week 4, he was averaging 17.6 points per game, which put him right at the end of superflex startability. Now Drew Lock is going to start if Teddy can’t go and that feels like a downgrade for all fantasy players on the Broncos.

 

  • Joe Mixon has an ankle injury. Initially, it was thought that he would be week-to-week, but now it appears that he’ll be day-to-day, so keep an eye on his practice status throughout the week. Of course, last year he was week-to-week in Week 5 and didn’t play again that season, so take all of this with a grain of salt. Mixon was playing over 75% of his team’s snaps, and now Samaje Perine will have to fill that role.

 

  • Will Fuller has a broken finger and is considered week-to-week. This has been a frustrating start to his first season in Miami. For now, cut him loose and look for your fantasy points somewhere other than the Dolphins passing game.

 

  • Logan Thomas is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Thomas was a popular draft pick this year who actually showed up and played well. His loss is tough, especially the zero points he got for you in Week 4. You’re better off streaming a TE from another team than trying to replace him with Ricky Seals-Jones.

 

  • DJ Chark is going to the IR after breaking his ankle last Thursday night. Chark was off to a good start, playing on over 80% of snaps in the first 3 games, scoring 2 TDs and averaging 22 yards per reception. Now his absence should bump up the production numbers for Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault as the Jaguars get their passing offense going. 

 

That's it for this week! Make sure to join us live on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Wednesday at 9pm CST. Bring us your lineup questions, trade evaluations, and things you generally need advice on in your life. We're guaranteed not to make it any worse than it already is.

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