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Simply put, a confidence pool is a love-hate relationship!

In week 2, well, it was pretty hateful! So many upsets and so many points lost on games that the majority of the country could not have predicted! In week 3, however, the pool saw the error of its ways and gave us a more loving result. After the early Sunday games, we were still rocking a perfect board!

It’s a good thing, too. Now we have bye weeks to deal with. With a solid week 3, that puts us at a good spot as most confidence pools will be losing lines 14, 15 and 16 this week with six teams on a bye. With the number of possible points decreased starting this week, it’s good that we got them when we could!

On to week 4! HERE WE GO!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

13 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – The Colts have given me nothing but reasons to have nothing but confidence in them this season – especially when playing a team that seems to be as confused as the Titans. This shouldn’t be close.

12 – SAN DIEGO over Jacksonville – After being down 30-0 at halftime, the Jaguars turned to their future and brought Blake Bortles into the game. While it’s a great move for the future, their present is still pretty bleak.

11 – PITTSBURGH over Tampa Bay – The Steelers run game exploded last week against one of the top defenses in the league. The Bucs, well they imploded in Atlanta. A switch back to Mike Glennon at quarterback might help, but the Steelers are just too much to leave much doubt that they’ll lose this game.

10 – WASHINGTON over New York Giants – The Redskins lost a shootout last week. Lucky for them they now have an offense that can produce a shootout every week. The Giants on the other hand cannot. Kirk Cousins has seemingly lit a fire in the nation’s capital so much so that this week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that Kirk Cousins will be a starting quarterback in week 1 of 2015 … and that will be with the Redskins.

9 – Miami over OAKLAND – Yes the Raiders are the “home” team this week, but this home team has to travel across the country…and THEN across the pond to London. The Dolphins would be higher if they knew what they were doing at quarterback but either way they should be able to handle the Raiders.

8 – KANSAS CITY over New England – The Patriots were only able to put the ball in the end zone ONCE against the Raiders at home last week and just squeaked out the win. The Chiefs on the other hand finally found their offense groove last week. It’s hard to see the Pats stopping the Chiefs on a Monday night in Arrowhead this week.

7 – SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia – I’m still not throwing the towel in on the 9ers. They have started with a tough schedule with games against an undefeated Cardinals team (in Glendale) and games against the Bears and Cowboys. The Eagles rely heavily on their high-powered offense which San Fran should be able to contain.

6 – Detroit over NEW YORK JETS – Detroit looked pretty bad last week in beating the Packers, but I believe that was just a bad game. I’m confident that the Lions will bounce back for a road win, just not too confident.

5 – CHICAGO over Green Bay – The league’s fiercest rivalry is renewed in Soldier Field this week. The Bears’ injury questions leave me questioning them a bit, but the Packers haven’t seemed to find their groove yet this year so Chicago should be able to take this one. I have a feeling that the home team will be winning both games this season.

4 – HOUSTON over Buffalo – This game depends on the health of Arian Foster. If he plays, then keep the Texans here. If not, then slide them down a bit – maybe even put the Bills on the 1-2 line.

3 – Carolina over BALTIMORE – After last week's debacle, the Panthers will have a big point to prove. I’m not confident on a road team in Baltimore, but the Carolina D will look to return to form and shut down the Ravens.

2 – Atlanta over MINNESOTA – A new era has begun in Minnesota with Teddy Bridgewater now under center. Couple that with the fact that the game is being played in Minnesota and that gives me SOME reason to question the outcome, but the Vikings just have too many injury and legal issues to keep up with the Falcons.

1 – DALLAS over New Orleans – Sunday Night’s matchup is a good one. The fact that the game is in Jerry’s house makes it a toss-up. I think the ‘Boys will use the momentum from their comeback in St. Louis last week to propel them to a big win.

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when finalizing your weekly confidence pool picks or placing your game wagers? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and can set your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I will briefly go over each match up, explaining the main reasons for my decision on the winner of every game. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders. Confidence pool tip: when making my picks, I start with the easiest game/highest number and work my way down. I then go over my final decisions a couple times as well as making changes during the week as injuries and other factors come into play. Remember, St. Nick always checks that list twice and so should you.

NICK'S WEEK 4 PICKS:

DOLPHINS @ BENGALS - Cincy should of had a win but they did play Denver. The Dolphins almost lost to the Browns at home. I think this game will have above average scoring with Cincinnati coming out on top. Results- Bengals will win and barely cover the spread. Pick the under.

COLTS @ JAGUARS - Two mystery teams playing in a foreign land. So, not only are these squads hard to figure out, neither have home field advantage. I'm going with the Colts on this one because Frank Gore and the running game seems more crisp than that of the Jags and I'm also impressed with the play of tight ends Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle. Colts will pull off a close win and cover the close spread. I'm going with the over since both defenses will probably miss the plane to London.

BILLS @ PATRIOTS - What's to be said here? The Pats are not going to lose in Foxboro, no matter who is under center, and the under-achieving Bills pulled off a miracle last week against a very good team to save their coach's job. The Patriots will win decisively and cover the spread without a problem. The over might be a little high because of last week's charity thrown the Bill's way.

SEAHAWKS @ JETS - I'm a realist... and I really don't think Russel Wilson will play much, if at all. If he suits up and plays, he will be ineffective. I also think the Jets had a hiccup and are a much better team than Ryan Fitzpatrick and the rest of the guys showed against the Chiefs last week. Seattle still has a good defense, but so do the Jets. This game will come down to a few big plays. I'm leaning on the Jets to pull off the upset, so put low numbers on confidence pools and stay away from the spread. Definitely the under on this one.

BROWNS @ REDSKINS - The Browns did not look like the Browns we all know and ridicule last week because they played Miami, a Jekyll & Hyde team. They will not fare so well against the Redskins this week, who are a much better team in my opinion and are starting to hit their stride. The Redskins will win but won't cover the spread as the game barely makes the under.

LIONS @ BEARS - This one is so easy, a soccer fan could figure it out. The Bears are banged up and brutal while Matthew Stafford has shifted the Lions offense into high gear. Detroit will come away with a big time division win, so put the big time confidence points on them. Also, take the Lions and the low spread which is a steal. I feel confident in the over even if the game is lopsided.

RAIDERS @ RAVENS - Now that the Ravens have pulled off three games in a row, this game is a little easier to pick. The Raiders have given up a lot of yards this year and will continue to do so against Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing attack. Baltimore will easily cover the spread and would tread with some caution if picking the under, which is where I'm leaning.

TITANS @ TEXANS - The Texans came up empty last week, but it was against the Patriots on the road for a prime time game. I believe they will do a lot better against division rival Titans this week, but put low pool numbers on this one. With J.J. Watt gone, there will be more running lanes for Demarco Murray to enable the Titans to get some offense going. Stay away from the spread but definitely go for the over.

PANTHERS @ FALCONS - Another tight division game? Not exactly. Yeah, I know Matt Ryan and the Falcons are looking good, but Monday night's win came against the worst defense in football. They will have their hands full playing the stout defense of the reigning NFC champion Panthers. Carolina only lost because they faced Minnesota's defense, one of the best in the league. The Panthers should cover the spread and I'd put mid-range pool points on them. Stay away from picking the total points.

BRONCOS @ BUCCANEERS - I think Denver's offense is the real deal and we all know their defense is tops in the AFC. The Bucs are another Jekyll & Hyde team that is hard to put your finger on. I would take Denver in both pools and point spreads, as well as taking the over in this contest.

SAINTS @ CHARGERS - This is a classic example of a game where you want to put low numbers on the confidence pool and stay away from the spread. Both teams put up large amounts of points but have weak defenses. That being said, I would take the over if I touched anything in this game. If I had to pick a winner, it would be San Diego because of home field advantage and a slightly better defense.

RAMS @ CARDINALS - What the hell happened to the Cardinals last week? I want to forget about that game altogether... and so does my wallet. Arrrgh! The Rams have a good defense and obviously a potential star RB in Todd Gurley. The problem is, they are too hard to predict as they are only showing flashes of potential. Arizona should win this game with all of their talented offensive weapons, including their own star RB David Johnson and a tough defense to boot. I would pick the Cardinals covering the spread, low pool points and would stay away from the over/under due to the strong defense play on both sides of the ball.

COWBOYS @ 49ERS - Dallas is on the rise with their rookie QB and RB duo. San Fran are a bunch of jokers with flash in the pan ability. Definitely no consistency to beat a surging Cowboys team. I would pick Dallas all day to cover the spread, mid-to high pool points and would pick the over.

CHIEFS @ STEELERS - Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing loss and the Chiefs finally played like the team people remembered them to be a season ago. The Steelers have home field advantage with Le'Veon Bell returning to action, so Heinz Field will be like playing in an insane asylum if you're the visiting team. I'd go with low pool points and safely take the Steelers and the spread, which is under a touchdown, but would stay away from the over/under.

GIANTS @ VIKINGS - This game would be a lot closer to decide if it weren't for the crazy play of Minnesota's defense and the electricity of playing at home in a new stadium. Sam Bradford looks like he has been with the Vikings for multiple seasons, not multiple weeks and Stefon Diggs has become the talk of the WR world. Now, the Giants have a trio of playmakers in Beckham, Cruz and Shephard, as well as a beefed-up defensive front, but I just don't think it will be enough to get past the Vikings. Stick with low to mid on pool points, safely take Minnesota and the spread, but stay away from the over/under.