This week we were treated to a Thursday night blowout that was especially kind to Julio Jones owners, and as is usual, a fantastic Sunday slate of games. Here's what we learned.
- It's going to be a looong time before we see RGIII again, which isn't a bad thing for the rest of the team. In two games, Kirk Cousins has 677 yards passing with 5 TD's to go against just 1 INT. Washington has put up 41 and 34 points with Cousins at the helm. It's clear that the rest of the fantasy players on that team are now in much better hands.
- Le'Veon Bell looks like he's settled in as one of the best RB's in the league. He's second in the league with 315 yards (behind Demarco Murray, who has 385 yds on an incredible 75 carries). Maybe most interesting is Bell's 81-yard run last night, which was the longest non-touchdown run in about 20 years in the NFL. It's also the longest run the Panthers have ever given up, as well as the longest run for the Steelers in 44 years.
- Three Quaterbacks caught passes yesterday. Russell Wilson caught a 17 yard pass from Jermain Kearse and Johnny Manziel had a long catch and run using some subterfuge which got called back. Most impressive was Andy Dalton's 18 yard TD reception from Mohamed Sanu , who is now 4 for 4 in his career for 166 yards and 2 TD's. Sanu has a perfect QB rating of 158.3 for his career.
- Devin Hester, you really are ridiculous. Hester saved a play by forcing and recovering a fumble from a defensive player who was returning an earlier fumble. He then took and end-around 20 yards for a TD and capped it off with a punt return for a TD, giving him 20 in his career, leaving him alone atop the NFL record books. That's quite a game that should remind Lovie Smith of his days in Chicago.
- Ted Ginn Jr. must love to see his name on the box score. He threw a 10 yard pass, had a 4 yard rush, a 3 yard reception and had 1 punt return for 8 yards. He's not getting much activity in any phase of the game, but he's certainly available for whatever the coaches ask of him.
- Stephen Tulloch has joined the ranks of Bill Grammatica and Kendry Morales by tearing his ACL while celebrating a sack of Aaron Rodgers . Tulloch was placed on IR on Monday and while I suppose as a Bears fan, it's wonderful to see a division rival be the victim of such a ridiculous circumstance. What did we learn here? Clearly nothing, players will always celebrate and get hurt, shit happens.
- Kelvin Benjamin is going to give Sammy Watkins a run for his money when it comes to the best rookie WR. Benjamin caught 11 passes on 11 targets and now has 19 for 253 yds and 2 TD's this season. He's turning into a must start every week, regardless of who is throwing him the ball in Carolina.
- It's good to be a 'kowski'. The only players that scored points in the Patriots - Raiders game had 'kowski' in their name. Sebastian Janikowski and Stephen Gostkowski had three field goals each, and Rob Gronkowski topped it off with a touchdown, with the extra point by Gostkowski of course.
- There's running back controversy in Baltimore, and it doesn't involve Ray Rice. Bernard Pierce is not fully healthy right now, and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro had a great showing, gaining 91 yards on 18 carries and scoring a touchdown. Taliaferro was praised by his coach after the game and he could easily take over the starting role from Bernard Pierce in the next couple of weeks.
- Defense continues to be the most erratic position, but it's not without its favorites. Preseason favorites like New England, Houston and Cincinnati are all in the top 4 point scorers, but Seattle, the unquestioned #1 drafted D/ST is sitting at 26th right now, only scoring 14 points through three games. Some things never change, like people's ability to be wrong about fantasy football.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your team is off to a rip-roaring start to the season. I know plenty of rookies are. Hollywood Brown, Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf turned one good game into 2, and Devin Singletary and Josh Jacobs were on their way there before suffering injuries. TJ Hockenson and AJ Brown took a step backwards in week 2, but Deebo Samuel and David Montgomery got going on Sunday. There will be even more rookies getting the chance to contribute in week 3 with injuries clearing the way for increased playing time for a few guys. We’re also going to see the changing of the guard in New York with Daniel Jones taking over for Eli much earlier in the season than expected. Which rookies should make it into your lineup? Let’s dive in and take a look…
Rookies to Start:
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 3: @Was.): Montgomery saw a spike in usage week 2 as Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis both saw their playing time drop considerably. It’s still a committee, but Monty handled 18 carries and saw 3 targets, and more importantly handled all 5 carries inside the 5-yard line and scored his first touchdown. Washington has allowed nearly 250 rushing yards to opposing RBs through 2 weeks at a clip of 4.7 yards per carry. With the Bears favored to win this game, look for Montgomery to be very involved again and should be a solid RB2. The biggest concern here would be that Washington may stack the box a bit. They probably won’t have to respect Trubisky’s arm as much as they did with Wentz and Dak.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): Week 2 made it clear that Hollywood’s limited snaps in week 1 were due to the score getting out of hand early. He played 65% of the snaps and was targeted 13(!) times in a much more competitive week 2 contest. He and Mark Andrews are clearly the top targets in the passing game and the Ravens are a touchdown underdog this week against the Chiefs. They should be throwing at least a little more than usual and Kansas City doesn’t have a great pass defense. They’ve allowed over 260 yards per game through 2 weeks. Brown is a reasonable WR2 option in week 3.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): We’ve seen Murray throw the ball 54 times in an overtime game where the Cards mostly played from behind, and then 40 times in a game that had a mostly neutral (maybe slightly negative) game script. The volume is going to be there every week, and at some point he’s going to make plays with his legs. The Carolina defense is no pushover this week, and Arizona might actually be playing from ahead if Kyle Allen gets the start at QB for Carolina, but I would still bet on Murray to throw for another 300 yards.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 3: @Min): Keep an eye on the injury report with Jacobs. He left last week’s game briefly with a groin issue but did return so he should be good to go this week. The bigger concern for Jacobs might be his lack of usage in the passing game. Jacobs has been targeted just once in two weeks, and the Raiders are an 8-point underdog against the Vikings. Gruden is still likely to force feed him the ball as long as the game is close, and as usual that volume will have him in play for a RB2 spot. He’s quickly proving to be a better play in non-PPR leagues than PPR formats. Minnesota did let Aaron Jones run for 116 yards and a TD last Sunday.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Like Jacobs, you really need to follow the injury report with Singletary. He left last week’s game with a hamstring injury and wasn’t practicing yet this week as of Thursday. The match-up this week is a good one. Cincy has been shredded to the tune of 331 yards and 3 TDs on the ground in the first 2 weeks and Singletary has posted 127 yards on just 10 carries. If it sounds like he is going to be a full go, Singletary should be in your lineup. If he’s out, it’ll be a committee between Frank Gore on early downs and TJ Yeldon as the 3rd-down back.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): I’d actually lean towards sitting Sanders this week, but there is upside against a Lions team that hasn’t defended the run well. Sanders has led the Eagles’ backfield in snaps and carries, but he isn’t seeing a ton of targets and hasn’t been very efficient with his opportunities. He’s shown a tendency to try and break the big play, committing to bounce the ball outside and not seeing cutback lanes to take what the blocking is giving him. Through 2 games 11 of Sanders’ 21 carries have gone for 2 yards or less. The Lions have coughed up 249 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry in the first 2 weeks so there is some hope, but I would look for better options if you have them.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): McLaurin has gotten off to a hot fantasy start to his rookie campaign and the underlying numbers behind that start have been fantastic. He’s played 91% of the offensive snaps, is getting 20% of the pass game targets, and his average target depth is 18 yards. He’s here to stay kids. The one thing holding me back from making him a clear start this week is the Bears’ defense. They’ve allowed the 7th-fewest WR points so far (9th-fewest in PPR) and may be the best overall defense in the league. I’d still lean toward playing Terry this week if you have him. Just know that this is probably the toughest matchup he’s faced so far. One positive for McLaurin this week is Chuck Pagano’s scheme that is typically heavy on blitzing which can make them susceptible to the big play. The Bears have already allowed 4 pass plays of 24+ yards in the first two weeks.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Metcalf has clearly cemented himself as the number 2 receiver in Seattle behind Tyler Lockett, and he’s posted 2 quality performances thus far. He is going to be a huge problem for any defense that double-teams Lockett. The Seahawks’ run-heavy scheme lowers Metcalf’s weekly floor and with Drew Brees sidelined this could be a positive game script, but the Saints did allow the most WR fantasy points last year and the 6th-most in the league through the first 2 weeks. I like Metcalf to top 60 yards again and have a reasonable shot at finding pay-dirt.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Mecole showed off the wheels that made people think he’d be an ideal Tyreek Hill replacement last weekend. He posted 4-61-1 on 7 targets and had a TD longer than 70 yards that was called back on a holding penalty. Every offensive player in this passing game has a chance to go off any given week, and Mecole’s game-breaking ability means they are going to scheme the ball to him with the opportunity to make plays. Hardman played more than half of his snaps in the slot, which means he’ll tangle mostly with 33-year old Brandon Carr rather than Marlon Humphrey. I like his chances of winning that match-up. Mecole is in the WR3/flex discussion and has a ton of upside this week.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Hockenson’s dazzling debut did not turn into a repeat performance in week 2, but his playing time was similar. The Lions aren’t going to be a high-volume passing attack when they can help it, and that is going to make Hock a volatile option weekly. He’s certainly in play this week if you’re searching for a replacement for Njoku, are afraid of trusting OJ Howard again, or just don’t have a legit TE1, but there is a boom-or-bust element here. The Eagles aren’t a great TE match-up. They struggled a little with Vernon Davis and Austin Hooper in the first two weeks but allowed the 4th fewest TE points per game last season. If you have safer options than Hock I’d use them.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 3: @TB): The Giants may get Sterling Shepard back this week, but the receiver group overall is still pretty bad and Todd Bowles’ Tampa defense hasn’t made life easy on opposing QBs so far. They’ve allowed the 7th lowest passer rating in the league to opposing QBs through 2 games and coughed up just 1 passing touchdowns. Jones has the rushing ability to salvage a QB2 day even if he doesn’t throw it well, but I’d like to see him succeed against a first-string defense before throwing him out there in lineups, even 2QB ones.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): The Jaguars called a surprisingly pass-heavy game plan in week 2 in a game that was pretty close throughout, but the Jaguars have played at the slowest pace in the NFL through 2 weeks. That caps Minshew’s weekly ceiling, especially facing off with a Titans team that also likes to play at a deliberate pace. The Jaguars implied total is less than 20 points. Minshew’s rushing output was a nice bonus this week, but it’s not something he has a history of doing. He totaled just 119 rushing yards in 13 games at WSU last year. If forced to choose between Jones and Minshew this week, I’d go with Jones.
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): Mark Ingram had a bit of an injury scare last Sunday but was able to return to action and should be fine for this week’s showdown with Kansas City. I believe Hill will eventually work his way into a bigger role, but I need to at least see him operating in front of Gus Edwards or being utilized more in the passing game before I consider using him in lineups.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): Mattison has played on just 20% of the Vikings offensive snaps and handled just 13 carries through 2 weeks. There is a chance at some additional opportunities for him this week with the Vikes favored by just over a touchdown, but the Raiders have done a good job of stuffing the run so far allowing just 63 rush yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. He’s not a great option even if he gets a few extra carries.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Brown seems like an interesting option with Jalen Ramsey likely to follow Corey Davis around in what should be Ramsey’s final game as a Jaguar, but the Jaguars play an inordinate amount of zone coverage and negate the effect of a lock-down shadow corner. It’s probably a big part of why Ramsey wants out of Jacksonville. I like Brown’s game, but the Titans just don’t throw enough to support their wide receivers as weekly options right now. None of their pass catchers outside of Delanie Walker are more than a dart throw this week.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 3: @KC): The Ravens may be throwing more than usual in a game where they are a touchdown underdog and facing a less than stellar secondary, but the targets just haven’t been there for Boykin. I’d rather he have a breakout game from my bench or the waiver wire than post another 1-catch game in the lineup.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 3: @SF): Johnson has been at least somewhat involved through the first two weeks, and there’s always the narrative that the second string WR and second-string QB will have an instant connection. That seemed to hold true last Sunday with Johnson being the target on 3 of Mason Rudolph’s 19 attempts last week, but I wouldn’t want to bet on him having a big game this week. There are too many receivers ahead of him in the pecking order and I’d expect the Steelers to try to run a bit more to take pressure off Rudolph in his first start.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Unfortunately for Johnson, newly activated Michael Crabtree’s snaps did come at his expense rather than Damiere Byrd’s. Byrd, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk are all pretty much every-down players, but Johnson and Crabtree are basically splitting the 4th WR role for now. I’d be fine with dropping Johnson in most formats at this point.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Campbell scored his first touchdown last week but has now played just 18 snaps in each of the first 2 contests and continues to run behind Chester Rogers in the slot. I expect that his playing time will increase as the season goes along but he isn’t playing enough right now to be trusted in your weekly lineups.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 3: @GB): Fant continues to play significantly more snaps that Jeff Heuerman, but Huerman is on the field just enough to keep Fant from being a borderline TE1. I assure you the Broncos don’t want to throw the ball 40 times a game like they have in the past 2 weeks, but I don’t know that they’ll be able to avoid it this week at Lambeau. With that said, 4 targets just isn’t going to cut it for Fant against a defense that has allowed just 5 catches for 14 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 weeks.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Knox has been operating as the lead guy in the Bills TE committee, but he hasn’t seen a ton of targets and the Bengals have allowed a total of 6 catches and 82 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 games. If you’re searching for a fill-in tight end due to injury this week, Knox isn’t a great place to look.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes & Cheap DFS Options:
RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Thompson is likely to be thrust into action this week with both LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams ailing. McCoy has returned to limited practice, but Williams still isn’t practicing as of Thursday and Thompson would be the first guy in line to fill his receiving role. Williams has 22 carries and 11 targets through 2 games. If Thompson sees close to the same workload he’ll be a great cheap option in DFS tournaments (costs the minimum in DraftKings) and a great desperation flex in deeper leagues. Double-digit points or close to it in PPR formats should be the expectation for Darwin if Williams sits.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): The Miami Dolphins have lost by a combined 92 points through 2 games and are a whopping 3-touchdown underdog against the Cowboys this week. With Dallas’s new souped up offense under Kellen Moore this one could get ugly in a hurry. There won’t be much reason to risk Zeke’s health into the 2nd half which should mean a lot of Tony Pollard. If you need an insurance policy for Damien Williams or Devin Singletary or Josh Jacobs in deep leagues, Pollard is a guy to keep in mind. He’s likely going to get extended run in this one.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 3: @Phi.): I mention Johnson mostly as a stash for this week. I wouldn’t trust running him out there in lineups this week, but with the release of CJ Anderson Ty seems poised to step into a bigger role in the offense. The Lions have been hesitant to turn Kerryon into a full-on workhorse – he hasn’t played 60% of the snaps in either game this year, so Johnson is a guy that you should be adding in most formats in case he makes the most of his increased opportunity.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both going to be out in week 3 (and probably week 4 as well), and JJAW become nearly a full-time player in their absence last Sunday. Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz are likely to lead the way in targets this week for Philly, but no one is a better bet to find the end zone than JJ. Darius Slay has been deployed in the slot on occasion before and I would expect him to spend some time covering Agholor, which should mean good things for Arcega-Whiteside. He and teammate Mack Hollins are both worth considering if you’re hurting for a wide receiver in a deep league or looking for a cheap DFS tournament play.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): It’s hard to put too much confidence in Deebo with the way the 49ers have shuffled their receivers in and out of the lineup. No receiver played more than 51% of the snaps last week. Some of that can be attributed to the blowout score, but Samuel played 88% of the snaps in week one and just 40% in week 2 yet was still on the field and getting touches in the 4th quarter with a 31-point lead. While sorting out the passing game pecking order after Kittle seems messy, I do think that Deebo is one of the guys that the 49ers will get into the game plan every week. He is a difference maker with the ball in his hands and Kyle Shanahan has found ways to use him running the ball and catching it. The Steelers are notorious for not adjusting their alignment to match up effectively in the slot, and I think we’re going to see Samuel move around quite a bit to take advantage of that. I’d only be considering Deebo in deeper leagues, but the upside is there for a WR3 day again.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 3: @Dal.): The Dolphins are pretty much guaranteed to be in a negative game script and throwing again as a 3-touchdown underdog this week. Williams saw his playing time jump up in week 2, and he had a nice rapport with Josh Rosen in preseason. With Rosen taking over as the starter this week, there is some decent upside in the sheer amount of garbage time there should be. Williams is a reasonable option in really deep leagues if you’re struggling to find a flex.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 3: @Min.): Tyrell Williams is fighting through a hip pointer this week and will draw the shadow coverage of one of the best shutdown corners in the game in Xavier Rhodes. Renfrow played 75% of the snaps last week in a negative game script and was targeted 8 times. The Vikings are 8-point favorites in this game so the situation should be similar. I’d expect Renfrow to see about 8 targets again and is a decent option in really deep PPR formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some of your tough lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury updates throughout the week. There are plenty of questionable players to monitor and make sure you aren’t playing an inactive player. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
5 Players over 30 Fantasy Points
Week 3 saw the return of big fantasy totals, with Russell Wilson leading the way at over 41 points. Unfortunately for Wilson, it was in a losing effort as most of the 4th quarter was basically garbage time for the Seahawks, who were trounced by the Brees-less Saints. We also saw newcomer Daniel Jones put up numbers we’ve never seen from a rookie before, throwing for over 300 yards and scoring 2 TDs through the air and another 2 on the ground. The big scoring numbers went deep, with the top 10 players all scoring at least 25 points, and the top 24 players all hitting at least the 20-point mark. This likely translated into fantasy success for lots of people, as the position players in the top 24 were all owned in at least 75% of Yahoo leagues.
4-4 Record
Rookie and Backup QBs were the big story this week, with 25% of NFL teams now having turned to either a rookie or a backup this season. Six of these guys were starting for the first time this week, and we saw Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen lead their teams to victories in games where they were not expected to do much of the heavy lifting. Jones and Allen were responsible for 4 TDs each, while Bridgewater played an admirable game manager. Elsewhere in the rookie watch this week, Kyler Murray did what he could, but was sacked 8 times and his first victory still eludes him. Next up is a home game against division rival Seattle – a softer target that you might have thought in the preseason. Finally, we’ve got our number 1 boy, Gardner Minshew II. Minshew led the Jaguars to victory in the annual Thursday night Crap Bowl sponsored by NFL network versus the Tennessee Titans. Minshew is playing so well that whispers of what to do with Nick Foles when he comes back have turned into full on serious conversations.
0.79 Points Per Target
49ers tight end George Kittle was part of the preseason “big 3” at his position, but he’s fallen quite short of that mark so far. In 3 games, he hasn’t topped more than 5.7 points, but is remarkably consistent, with 5.4 points in the other 2 games. His targets are there, he has 21 on the season, but he’s just not doing anything with them. This is very disappointing when you consider that only Travis Kelce (1.38 PPT) has made it into the top 10 from the preseason top 3. This means that lots of guys who you could have taken very late are doing quite well at the position. Leading the way at TE is Evan Engram, a high-volume guy who will probably maintain that role with his shiny new QB, leads all TEs in scoring with 39.70 points. The most efficient so far? That’d be Mark Andrews, who has a very nice 1.48 points per target, despite his very disappointing week 3 performance.
0.20 Fantasy Points
The once great John Ross has returned back to irrelevance, at least for one week. Going in to week 2, Ross led all WRs in fantasy points, but his 2 catches for 22 yards and a fumble have dropped him down to 7th overall at the position. He’s just behind DJ Chark, who is only owned in 41% of Yahoo leagues and will likely be this week’s hot WR pickup on the waiver wire. Chark has scored a TD in each of his first 3 games and is a clear favorite target of Gardner Minshew II. Elsewhere at WR, Davante Adams is having a very slow start to a season, which is surprising since the Packers are 3-0. Adams is averaging just 6.6 points per game and hasn’t found the end zone yet. Adams is lagging behind his usual pace of receptions and touchdowns since his 2016 breakout season, but his yards per game isn’t that terrible and his catch rate is as high as it’s ever been. Perhaps it’s just positive game script that’s keeping Adams from putting up big numbers. The Packers haven’t been challenged too much by their opponent’s offenses so far, so that’s translated into a quiet air attack so far this season. The Packers are 27th in pass attempts and passing yardage, which is bound to improve as the season goes on, so don’t fret, Rodgers and Adams owners.
0 Offensive TDs Allowed
The Patriots D/ST keeps putting up great performances, and it’s because their real-life defense has been stellar. Through 3 games, they have only allowed 3 points to opposing offenses, a field goal early in week 1. The D/ST has double digit points in each game so far this season, and a schedule with the Redskins, Giants, Jets and Browns coming up after this week’s meeting in Buffalo show that they have a decent shot at keeping this streak alive. In Week 3, the team did give up a pick-six and fumbled a punt in the end zone, both resulting in TDs for the Jets D/ST, who led the way with 16 points this week. The Jets have a bye coming up, so they are not useful just yet, but they have 3 TDs on the season and are tied for third in total points among all D/STs.