Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As the fantasy regular season winds down, hopefully you've got yourself well positioned for a playoff spot. It was a big week for some rookies, with Devin Funchess tallying his first TD and Dorial Green-Beckham finally getting a starter's share of the snaps (even if it took an injury to Kendall Wright to get them). Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley continued their usual excellence, and Karlos Williams returned to action in a big way. Let's talk about what week 10 should have in store...
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 10: vs. Chi.): If you own him, you know you're starting him, but he should be worth his price tag in daily fantasy games as well. The Bears allow 121 rushing yards a game and 4.6 yards per carry. They do a good job limiting TDs (just 2 rushing scores allowed all year), but Gurley is a good bet to top the century mark this week and I think he finds the end zone as well despite how few the Bears have allowed.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 10: @Oak.): Diggs didn't do a lot last week against the Rams, but he should be much better this week. The matchup is much softer. The Raiders don't allow a ton of WR touchdowns (just 4 on the year), but they do allow 16.7 catches and 221 yards per game to them. Diggs gets easily the most volume of the Vikings WRs, and he likely will get around 10 targets and should be safe to fire up as a WR2 this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys have been pretty solid against quarterbacks all year, allowing just 9 passing scores in 8 games and about 240 yards per game, but Jameis has shown a really safe floor. With at least 12 points scored each week, he should be a safe QB2 this week in 2 quarterback leagues, albeit one with limited upside.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 10: @StL.): If Matt Forte is out again, volume should keep Langford on the RB2 radar despite a tough matchup. If you have strong options to play over Langford, go for it. The Rams have allowed just 2 offensive TDs in 4 home games this year. While Langford should get a bunch of work, he'll be a long shot to find the end zone. If Forte is a go, Langford shouldn't be near your lineup.
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Yeldon was having a rough game in week 9, but broke a long 4th quarter run that bailed his day out. With that said, his volume remains consistent. The Ravens have been tough on opposing rushers, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and just 4 RB touchdowns on the season, but that volume keeps Yeldon in the RB2 discussion. I'd expect him to tally somewhere around 8 points in standard leagues this week.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Jones hasn't produced much lately, but he's definitely running ahead of Alfred Morris right now. Jones had 11 carries in week 9, Alf has 10 total in the last 2 games, and he's turned them into just 15 yards. This is a plus matchup for RBs. The Saints allow 105 rush yards per game to opposing backs, and even with Chris Thompson back this week, Jones should get 12-15 carries. That makes him a realistic flex option this week with byes and all of the RB injuries around the league right now.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Duke has a similar outlook this week to what he has every other week. He remains firmly on the PPR flex radar. He's a better option if Josh McCown starts at QB. The Steelers allow the 3rd fewest RB fantasy points, but they also allow almost 5 catches and 42 receiving yards per game to RBs.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cooper is pretty close to a must-start at this point based on volume and upside, but there are some red flags this week. He's a little dinged up with a quad injury. He's alternated games with a TD and without, and he's due for no TD this week. The matchup isn't ideal, as the Vikings are in the top 10 teams in the league at limiting WR fantasy points. Also, Cooper and Crabtree almost never go off in the same week, and Cooper is the one who usually gets the defense's focus. Week 9 was the second time all year that both receivers finished in the top-24 at the position in fantasy points. It all adds up to Cooper being a little dicier this week than most, and certainly not someone to target in DFS.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. NO): I was worried Crowder's role would be reduced with the return of DeSean Jackson, but he caught 6 passes for 50 yards in week 9. Hopefully it's a sign that things won't change with D-Jax back. He's got 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and at least 4 catches in each of the last 6 (6 rec./gm on average). He's got a plus matchup this week and should be a WR3 option in PPR leagues. His floor this week should be 5 catches and 50 yards.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Mariota is coming off one of his best days as a pro in week 9 against the Saints, but the Saints are the worst QB defense in the league and he gets a much stiffer test this week. Don't read much into Aaron Rodgers fantasy bonanza in week 9 against these Panthers. That was an outlier game. If you throw out week 9, Carolina is allowing just 12.3 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which would be good for 3rd lowest in the league behind Denver and St. Louis. Don't chase last week's points here. He's nothing more than a desperation 2QB league play.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 10: @NYJ): Earlier in the week I was planning on listing Karlos as a guy to start, but as the week has gone on it's become clear that Shady McCoy will play Thursday night. Karlos was tremendous in his return to action last week (9 carries for 110 yards and 2 TDs), and he now has a TD in every game he's played in and is the overall RB21 for the season despite missing 3 games, but I think the TD streak ends this week. The Jets allow just 10.6 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and most of the work should go to McCoy. Keep Karlos under wraps this week.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 10: @GB): The Packers have been good against RBs, and Abdullah's role shrunk in the first game with Jim Bob Cooter in as offensive coordinator. Joique Bell is getting the early down work and Theo Riddick the passing down work. The game script doesn't set up well in this game either. The Packers are an 11-point favorite and haven't lost to the Lions at home in the last 20 meetings. Keep Abdullah benched.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 10: @Sea.): Nothing new to report on Johnson. He remains the 3rd banana in this run game behind CJ2K and Ellington. Even though he's seeing some red zone work, the Seahawks allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. This isn't the spot to pick to use a guy with very limited volume.
RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Cobb will be activated from the short-term IR this week and should see at least a couple carries, but the bulk of th work this week should go to Antonio Andrews. Andrews has been good in the past 2 games and earned more work. Cobb will eventually factor in, and could be worth a stash in deeper leagues, but you aren't considering him this week.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Big surprise here...another Titan rookie I'm telling you to sit. This is the worst possible week for DGB to draw Josh Norman. The Panthers should deploy their top cover man on Green-Beckham. Dorial had a breakthrough in week 9 with Kendall Wright sidelined, seeing double-digit targets and pulling in 5 of them for 77 yards (both career highs). Wright is likely to be out again, but I don't like the chances of DGB continuing his breakout this week. He has the talent to start producing in tough matchups, but for now I'm giving Norman the benefit of the doubt.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Agholor should finally return from a high ankle sprain, and the matchup is a good one, but Nelson hasn't done anything yet this year. It would be a pretty big leap of faith to think that this is the week he starts producing, even though the Eagles' offense is playing much better than it was when he got hurt. There is a chance that things click for Agholor at some point in the second half and the fantasy points start coming, but it hasn't happened yet. At most he's a deep league flyer right now.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Ari.): Lockett is still in play for leagues that count return yardage. His passing game involvement was increasing before the bye last week (8 catches for 115 yards and a TD in the last 2 games), but the Cardinals are a tough matchup. I hope his role continues to grow, but this isn's a good spot to fire him up.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I wouldn't get Ajayi into the lineup this week, but I wanted to mention him as a deep league flyer to scoop off the waiver wire. He debuted last week and was impressive, gaining 41 yards on just 5 carries. Lamar Miller isn't going away, but the coaching staff admitted that Ajayi earned more work with his performance. If anything were to happen to Miller, Ajayi would get a huge boost in value. He's definitely surpassed Damien Williams and Jonas Gray on the depth chart, and will see change of pace work for now.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Funchess finally broke through last week with a 3-71-1 line, and he gets a favorable matchup again this week. Don't go too crazy here. He's still running behind Ginn, Cotchery and Corey Brown in terms of snap count, so the floor is really low, but he could be a decent punt play in DFS tournaments.
WR Adam Humphries, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Humpries is taking advantage of the absence of Vincent Jackson. He posted a 5-55 line in week 9, and it seems likely that Jackson is out again in week 10. The matchup isn't great, but Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (if he returns) would draw a lot of the defensive attention. There is some upside for a nice PPR day out of Humphries.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Walford is a TD dart throw in this game, with the upside for a little bit more. His quarterback likes him, he has 2 scores in the past 3 games, and the Vikings have given up at least 30 TE receiving yards in all but one game this year. If you're desperate for a TE streamer, you could do worse than Walford this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps with some of your lineup decisions. If you have any questions or complaints, you can reach out and let me know on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As usual, we're coming off a week with plenty of surprises, plenty of injuries, and plenty of storylines. We may have seen the end of Peyton Manning's legendary career. We may have seen the beginning of the end of the Matt Forte era in Chicago. We also saw the Lions miraculously hold on to upset the Packers when GB's own holder blocked Mason Crosby's game-winning field goal try. In terms of the rookie crop, Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones were the heroes, while several others had respectable days as well. Let's take a look at what week 11 should have in store...
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 11: @Bal.): The Ravens have been pretty good against opposing running backs, so this may be a week to fade Gurley in DFS games, but you certainly can't sit him in your year-long leagues. The Ravens have given up more than 81 rush yards to RBs in a game exactly twice this year. In those two games, they were absolutely gashed by Le'Veon Bell and Chris Johnson. Each gained over 120 yards and found the end zone. In their other 7 games, they've given up an average of 69 rushing yards per game and just one rushing score total. Don't be scared off by those numbers. Gurley has been a top-12 fantasy back in each of the past two games in poor on-paper matchups. He is the entire offense, especially with Case Keenum starting now, and he's still an RB1 until further notice.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): The biggest concern for Langford isn't the dangerous Denver defense, it's whether or not Matt Forte plays. If Forte is a go, that likely moves Langford to your bench. He's earned an increased workload when Forte returns, but with the Bears still clinging to their slim playoff hopes, I'd expect Forte to see the majority of touches if active. If Forte is out, however, I'd be willing to trust Langford again. The Broncos have been incredible against the pass, but there have been cracks in that defense against the run. Charcandrick West just put up a monster game against Denver on Sunday, and the Colts' RBs put up 21 fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring) on Denver the week before. Langford has been on an absolute roll, and he should be the focal point of the offense with Alshon doing battle with Aqib Talib on the outside. Langford should easily return RB2 value.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 11: @Det.): Amari's upside is impossible to sit this week. He also should be due for a TD this week if you buy into the whole 'he alternates games with and without a TD' thing. The Lions' pass defense has looked a little bit improved the past 2 weeks, allowing 27 total fantasy points to the Packers' and Chiefs' WRs in those weeks. They had allowed 26.2/per game in the previous 5 games. The Lions have had a better pass DVOA (Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistic, which measures defensive efficiency) against number 1 receivers than against number 2 guys, but they've been really burnable at home under the Ford Field roof. They've allowed at least 25 WR fantasy points in all 4 of their games there. Cooper should be fine this week, and is a safe WR2/3 in MoTown.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. GB): Diggs has shown his floor over the past two weeks, putting up lines of 3-42 and 2-46 with 10 rush yards. That is still a usable floor in deeper leagues, but you're typically looking for more from a starter. I expect the Vikings to have to throw a bit more this week, and Diggs should be noticeably more productive as a result. The Packers are one of the bottom-5 defenses in the league in pass DVOA against number 1 WRs. The floor remains 4-5 points in standard leagues, but I expect him to come in a bit closer to his ceiling this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Mariota goes from a dream matchup to a nightmare matchup, then back into the dream. The Jaguars have allowed 10 TD passes in their last 4 games to Hoyer, Tyrod, FitzMagic and Flacco after allowing 7 TDs in the first 5 games. Mariota's weapons will be limited with Justin Hunter done for the year and Kendall Wright likely out again, but Mariota will have QB1 upside with a pretty decent floor. The Jaguars have allowed 8 straight QBs to put up 15 or more fantasy points on them. It also appears that interim coach Mularkey is willing to let Mariota use his legs a bit, scheming in a few designed runs in week 10. That development only increases Mariota's value. He's a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week with upside for more.
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 11: @Phi.): The Eagles are 5th in the NFL with 12 interceptions, and Jameis has thrown 9 INTs 9 games and hasn't thrown a TD pass in the past 2 weeks. He has, however, kept his floor reasonable by scoring on the ground in 3 straight games. That floor should hold steady this week as Mike Evans should have his way with the Eagles' secondary. Philadelphia is the 3rd best team in the league in overall pass DVOA, but they are 31st in that stat against WR1s. They allow 100 yards per game to the top opposing WRs, and Evans has topped 125 in 3 of his last 4 games. Another big day from Evans should keep Jameis in the mid-to-high QB2 range even if he throws a pick or 2.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 11: @NE): Williams continues to defy the odds. His TD streak rolled on last week in a brutal matchup, and it's getting hard to bet against him doing it again. The Patriots run defense has allowed just 133 rushing yards total to RBs over the past 3 games, and Karlos will likely see about 6-10 touches in this game making him unlikely to find the end zone again this week. With that said, his results each week have defied logic. I mean, he has exactly 1 carry on the season from inside the opponent's 5-yard line, yet he's scored 7 TDs (5 rushing) in 6 games. He's sustaining the unsustainable. Feel free to trot him out there again if you want to roll the dice on him finding the end zone for a 7th straight game. Just know there's plenty of risk built in.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Justin Hunter has a fractured ankle and Kendall Wright is looks to be out again this week as well. That forces DGB into a starting role this week. His targets and production have been inconsistent so far, but his upside and the volume he's likely to see this week make him a WR3 option. Jacksonville has allowed 7 WR TDs in the past 4 games, and the only recievers who have logged a snap this year the Titans have healthy are Green-Beckham and Harry Douglas. I like DGB's chances of finding paydirt in a decent matchup.
Rookies to Sit:
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): Yeldon was in a walking boot on Monday and was listed as questionable for this week. He shed the walking boot on Tuesday and said he expects to play despite the short week. Even if he does play Thursday, he's at best a low-upside flex option. The Titans' defense has really been coming together lately, and has allowed just 1 total RB touchdown in the past 4 games to go with just 71 rush yards per game in the past 3. The volume is still likely to be there for TJ, but I wouldn't expect more than 50-60 scoreless yards. Anything extra would be gravy.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 11: vs. KC): Hopefully you aren't forced to play Gordon this week. The Chiefs have been strong against opposing RBs and Woodhead has consistently been the better fantasy back. If you throw out the one outlier game for the Chiefs' defense where the Bengals rushed for 4 TDs against them, KC has allowed just 10.4 RB points per game, which would be the best in the NFL. Considering Gordon hasn't topped 9 points all year or 5 points in the past 4 games, it's hard to expect much from Melvin this week.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Oak.): The Raiders' once stout RB defense has been crumbling lately. They've allowed 373 rushing yards and 3 TDs to opposing RBs in the past 2 games (mostly to Adrian Peterson and D'Angelo Williams), and they just lost Aldon Smith to suspension. The Smith news hurts their pass rush more than the run D, but it's a blow to the overall defense. None of that will matter against the Lions' rushing "attack." Detroit runs for just 67 yards a game, and Ameer Abdullah has just 6 carries in 2 games under new OC Jim Bob Cooter. There's no reason to play him this week.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Jones exploded last week, but don't chase last week's points here. There were actually some negative signs on Sunday as Alfred Morris out-touched Jones 18-14 and Jones played his lowest share of snaps in several weeks. There could be more strong weeks for Jones down the stretch, but this one probably won't be one of them. The Carolina RB defense has been much better since the return of inside linebacker Luke Kuechly. The Panthers allowed 67 fantasy points to RBs in the 3 games he missed, and just 83 in the 6 games he's played (a 9 points per game improvement). Add in that Washington figures to be playing from behind as a 7-point underdog, and it likely sets up for more Chris Thompson snaps. I'd avoid playing Jones this week.
RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Cobb was a healthy scratch in his first game after being activated from the IR, but Antonio Andrews might have done as much to help Cobb's playing time hopes as he could have done himself. Andrews rushed 11 times for 8 yards, reminding us that 'workhorse' is a title that likely shouldn't be associated with him. Cobb isn't a startable option this week, but if Andrews continues to struggle going forward, it will help Cobb see some touches sooner than later. He remains a deep league and dynasty stash.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Johnson is nearing the point where I almost don't have to mention him. He scored in double-digits in 4 of his first 5 games, but he's been a non-factor of late. He's scored just 5 points total in the past 4 games, and this week's big game with the Bengals isn't a spot where I'd expect that to change. He's firmly planted behind CJ2K and Ellington.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Crowder's decent PPR floor has remained in tact with DeSean Jackson back in action, and he even scored a TD in week 10, but this week could be a struggle. Panthers' slot corner Bene Benwikere has been struggling a bit lately, but seemed to get back on track against the Titans last week, and the Panthers are in the top-5 in the league in pass DVOA against non WR1 & 2's. Crowder has put up at least 4 catches and 40 yards in 7 straight games, and he might get to those numbers again, but I don't see upside for much more this week.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. SF): Feel free to consider Lockett if return yardage is counted in your league, but if they aren't, Lockett showed a scary low floor Sunday with just one catch for 7 yards. He did post his best game of the season against these 49ers (5-79-1), and he could be a DFS tournament punt play, but he shouldn't be in your regular fantasy lineups this week.
TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. StL.): Don't chase last week's 4-40-1 line from Maxx. The Rams are a much stiffer defense than Jacksonville. The Rams have been beaten up by Jimmy Graham, Gary Barnidge, and the suddenly red hot Zach Miller, but in their other 6 games they allowed just 21 total TE points and zero touchdowns. Maxx is still running behind Crockett Gillmore. He's just a dynasty stash at this point.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. SF): Lynch has been battling through injuries all season, and the Seahawks are a 12-point favorite in this matchup. There is blowout potential here with the Seahawks desperate for a win. This could be a prime spot to get Lynch some rest if Seattle is able to get up by a couple scores early. They're going to need a healthy Marshawn down the stretch if they really want to mount a playoff push. With that in mind, there is a good chance for some extra Rawls work. In the first go-round, Lynch put up 122 yards on the 49ers and Rawls tallied 32 on 6 carries, and that game was closer than some expected (20-3 final). It's always risky to play someone in the hopes of a blowout, but this game sets up to be a decent spot for Rawls at least on paper.
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Ajayi has been really solid in his first two pro games, putting up 89 yards on just 11 carries. He's become a great handcuff option for Lamar Miller owners, and could have his best game yet this week if he gets even a minor bump in touches. The Cowboys are in the bottom-6 in the NFL in run DVOA. The biggest hurdle to seeing increased work for Ajayi is the return of Tony Romo. If Romo is able to sustain drives more effectively than Matt Cassel was, Dallas can get back to the formula they used last year and control time of possession. That would limit the Dolphins' offensive opportunities, and Ajayi's as well. I'd expect there to be a little rust for Romo in his first game back though.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. TB): Mark Sanchez showed the ability to produce in this offense during an 8-game stretch as starter last season, and the Bucs haven't been good against opposing WRs. They've allowed over 200 yards to opposing WRs 5 times in 9 games. Agholor finally returned last week and matched his season high with 3 catches on 4 targets. He did that while running behind Josh Huff on the depth chart. I'd expect him to get back into the starting lineup before long. He did only catch one pass from Sanchez in week 10, but he was targeted on a downfield throw by him as well. Helping Nelson's outlook even more is the fact that the Bucs have struggled more with true outside WRs (Julio, Hurns, A-Rob, Odell, Rueben Randle, DeAndre Hopkins) than with slot guys, and Jordan Matthews spends most of his time in the slot. I expect Agholor to set a new career high in catches and possibly get loose for a deep catch.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): Funchess is in pretty much the same boat he was in heading into week 10. His play has been improving over the past couple weeks, but his snaps and target volume are very limited. He made 2 nice catches for 41 yards in week 10 after a 3-71-1 line in week 9, and he gets another plus matchup this week. If the improved play continues, his role should continue to grow. He'll be a TD dart throw this week and a DFS tournament punt play. He'd be a better option for FanDuel than DraftKings since DK is a full PPR scoring system, and his catch number will likely be low.
WR Tre McBride, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): McBride will be active for the first time in his career this week, and he'll step right into the number 3 WR spot in a game against a bad pass defense. Harry Douglas has been wildly inefficient with his targets this year except for week 9, when he went 5-73 against the worst pass defense in the NFL (New Orleans). If Douglas struggles with his efficiency again early on Sunday, it could lead to increased looks for McBride.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 11: @Det.): Walford is a better than average TD dart throw again this week. He's scored in 3 of his last 4 games, and the Lions have allowed a TE touchdown in 7 of their 9 games this year (8 total TDs). No other Oakland tight end has scored a touchdown this season, so if one of them is going to score this week, it's very likely that it's Walford.
That's all I've got this week. Hopefully it helps with some tough lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Make sure and fit the suggestions to your roster and your league format, and feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or just want to yell at me about something (@shawn_foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.