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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're just a week away from Championship Week in most leagues, so hopefully your team is still standing (both literally and figuratively). Week 14 was a brutal one for injuries. I was bounced from 3 different league playoffs with teams that each started one of Andy Dalton or Thomas Rawls, and one of them also had Tyler Eifert. It didn't help that I got horrible efforts from Calvin Johnson, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, Jeremy Maclin, Larry Fitzgerald and Brian Hoyer (2 separate 2-QB leagues), but that's neither here nor there. TJ Yeldon also went down in last week's carnage. After last week, the running back position is getting mighty thin, so expect a lot of RB insight in this week's write-up. There is only one rookie that I feel confident in telling you is a must-start this week, but plenty more who could and should make an impact. Let's dive in....

Rookies to Start:

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Yes, David Johnson is the only rookie that I can say with total confidence that you should be starting this week. He's thrived in the starter's role the past two weeks, putting up 120+ scrimmage yards in in each contest and scoring a TD in one. The Eagles rank 21st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency), and they've allowed 100 RB rushing yards and or a running back TD in 5 of the 6 games played since their bye. Arizona should control the game, which should keep Johnson running all day. He has an RB2 floor and RB1 ceiling.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Gurley had a monster bounce-back game last week, but that doesn't mean he's out of the woods just yet. He's still a boom-or-bust option, albeit one with overall RB1 upside when he booms. The key last week was that the Rams were able to play from ahead, keeping the run game in play long enough for Gurley to wear down the defensive front and start ripping off chunk plays in the 2nd half. That's been his MO all season, and keeping this game close will be critical to him having another big day. Tampa does rank 5th in run DVOA, and the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of, but I like the chances that the St. Louis defense keeps this game close and allows Gurley to return at least RB2 value. My only hesitation is the low floor we've seen if the Rams fall behind.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Jones has finally appeared to emerge as the lead back in Washington, out-touching Alfred Morris 39-17 over the past 2 weeks. Buffalo ranks 28th in run DVOA, and every team that has had 17 RB carries against Buffalo has picked up at least 85 rushing yards on them. Jones has 18 carries on his own in each of the past two games. The Bills have also allowed 7 RB rushing scores in their past 8 games. Despite Jones's inefficiency, with RB so thin this week he's a decent flex play and boasts high RB2 upside.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 15: @NO): Ameer had his worst game in 3 weeks last Sunday, and still managed 44 scrimmage yards against a defense that ranks 12th in run DVOA. The Saints rank 27th. The Saints have been giving points to RBs almost as freely as they do to QBs, allowing the 2nd most RB points in the league. I expect Abdullah to get back to double-digit carries this week, and in this matchup that could make him an upside flex in leagues with 12 teams or more.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Cooper will be happy to be rid of Aqib Talib this week after Talib held him catchless on 8 targets, but the Packers are no cakewalk either. They've allowed just one WR to reach 70 yards in the past 5 games (Alshon Jeffery), and they've allowed just 4 top-20 weekly WR finishes all year. The Raiders should funnel Cooper targets early to get him back on track, but he's definitely more of a WR3 option than locked in WR2. I'd feel much more comfortable starting him if Green Bay's top corner Sam Shields misses this game with the concussion he suffered last week.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The bump in volume for Tyler Lockett in week 13 proved to not be a fluke. After seeing a season-high 7 targets in the first game after Jimmy Graham went down, he saw another 7 this past Sunday. With those 14 targets, he pulled in 13 of them for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He now boasts a ridiculous 41 catches on 47 targets for the year (87.2% catch rate, best of any WR targeted at least 10 times). As long as that volume holds up, and I expect it to, Lockett should remain a decent WR3 option.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Dorial has flashed great potential at times this season, especially over the past 2 weeks, but he was back to being inconsistent last Sunday following his breakout game vs. Jacksonville. The good news...he was targeted 7 times and got open consistently. He'll remain a volitile weekly option, but his talent and role give him WR2 upside, even versus the emerging New England secondary.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Walford has finally started to see substantial volume over the past 2 weeks. He's got 8 catches for 100 yards on 12 targets over the past two games. The Packers are in the bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to TEs (all point numbers based on ESPN standard scoring) and have allowed a tight end touchdown in 5 of their past 6 games. Despite the presence of Mychal Rivera to steal some TE snaps, Walford is a solid streaming option this week.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Car.): The matchup is really imposing for Tye, but he's scored at least 5 fantasy points in each of his past 4 games and 7 in each of his past 3. With Josh Norman likely to match up with Odell Beckham a bunch (not sure if Norman will follow Odell to the slot), look for Tye to remain a key piece of the offense in situations where Norman is on Beckham. There isn't a huge ceiling here, but Tye should be a safe bet for 40-50 yards, which is better than taking a shot on someone who may goose egg if you're streaming at tight end. Tye has been returning borderline TE1 production over the past month.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Mariota has been playing excellent football lately, scoring 17+ points in every game except versus Carolina since he returned from injury in week 9. He's found a variety of ways to get to the end zone, even catching a 41-yard TD on trick play last week. He gets a real test this week though. The Patriots do a great job of erasing the opposition's top targets, so look for them to focus primarily on Delanie Walker, and secondarily on Dorial Green-Beckham. The Patriots' secondary has been really coming together of late, seeing standout play from both Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. New England has allowed 12 points or fewer to opposing QBs in 6 of their last 7 (Eli is the exception). I wouldn't be willing to try Mariota as anything more than a low level QB2 this week.

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Jameis was a huge letdown last week in an excellent spot, and he gets much stiffer opposition this week. The Rams have allowed a QB to reach 20 fantasy points just twice all year, and the Bucs will be without Vincent Jackson. Mike Evans should spend most of his day squaring off with Trumaine Johnson, who just held Megatron to 1 catch for 16 yards on Sunday. Jameis has proven to have a usable floor in 2-QB leagues, scoring at least 12 points in every game this season, but he's not on the QB1 radar this week.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): As of now, Yeldon appears to be a longshot to play with a sprained knee. The Jaguars signed Jonas Gray, and head coach Gus Bradley didn't update the media on Yeldon's status on Tuesday. Typically coaches are eager to share good news on the injury front. Even if Yeldon is able to go, I'd expect him to see a limited workload and split touches with Denard Robinson. Given that he's gotten by all year on volume, a split workload would make him a dicey flex play even in this plus matchup.

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Allen showed what his floor looks like last week w/o Matt Schaub in a tough matchup with the Seahawks, and it wasn't god awful (56 scoreless yards on 13 touches). That's not what you're hoping to get out of a starter though. This week he faces a Chiefs' defense that is arguably just as stingy as the Seahawks, and they also boast the best pass DVOA in the league on passes to running backs. If you're okay with about 5 points in standard scoring or 10 in PPR leagues, go ahead and play Allen. There isn't much more ceiling than that this week.

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 15: @Min.): Since Matt Forte returned from injury, Langford has averaged just 14 touches and 57 scrimmage yards/game, and he's been held under 70 yards and without a TD in each of the last 2. Both were plus matchups (home against San Francisco and Washington). This week he faces a Vikings team that has allowed just 2 RB scores in 9 games since their bye, and over 16 RB points just once in that span. Given the time share with Forte, I doubt Langford gets enough volume to make a fantasy impact. He's best left on the pine.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 15: @Sea.): Don't expect a repeat of last week's rushing output for Duke. He still gets by on his passing game work, and he just doesn't get as much of it with Johnny Manziel starting. In the 5 games where Manziel has started or seen extended playing time, Duke has just 7 total catches. Even if you throw out the first 2 games of the year, which were before Johnson had established his passing game role, he's still averaged just 2.3 catches per game in the other 3. Facing an imposing matchup this week, Duke will be hard pressed to return RB3 value in any format.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 15: vs. Chi.): The passing volume was finally there last week for Minnesota, with Teddy Bridgewater throwing for nearly 340 yards on 25 completions, but just 11 of them were to wide receivers and only 2 were to Diggs. He still sees a healthy percenage of the Minnesota passing targets, but I don't expect that big volume again this week. Teddy B has thrown for under 200 yards in 5 of the past 7 games, and Minny should lean on AP this week facing a Bears' defense that ranks dead last in run DVOA. I'd be at least a little surprised if there's enough work for Diggs to top 50 yards.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 15: @NYG): With the season on the line, now is not the time to play a low-floor touchdown dart throw wide receiver. In his best game without a TD, Funchess tallied just 4 points. Yikes.

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): I can't trust Parker this week after his 2-16 line on Monday Night Football. He may bounce back this week, but I expect him to see quite a bit of Jason Verrett, who has been an elite cover corner. Verrett rarely ventures into the slot, so he likely won't shadow Jarvis Landry, and Parker struggled versus Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie last week. This week shapes up for a heavy dose of Landry.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Don't chase last week's points. Agholor has done next to nothing all year, and outside of a 53-yard TD catch last week, he caught just 2-of-5 targets for 9 yards. You can't start him this week.

WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf): Crowder has shown over the past few weeks that he should only be under consideration if DeSean Jackson misses this game. Even if Jackson is out, Crowder's ceiling has settled in around 5 catches for 50 yards. You should be aiming higher with the season at stake.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Gordon continued his disappointing rookie campaign last week, adding a 13th straight game without a touchdown, but his role has been constant and even increasing down the stretch of the season. With this year a lost cause, the Chargers have started to lean on Gordon in situations where they used to go to Danny Woodhead. Gordon has had at least 13 touches in each of his past 6 games, and at least 49 scrimmage yards in each (over 60 in 4 of them). Of the 6 opponents he faced in that stretch, 5 were in the top-11 in run DVOA. Miami ranks 23rd. If he sees 15+ touches, Gordon is a decent bet to top 75 yards and just might find his way to his first TD of the year.

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): On the other side of the Miami-San Diego game, Jay Ajayi isn't a consideration for the fantasy playoffs, but he could be an intriguing punt play in DFS tournaments. The Dolphins are now mathematically out of the playoff race, and Ajayi could see an expanded role down the stretch. San Diego is 31st in run DVOA and has allowed 100+ RB rushing yards in 10 of 13 games this year. There is really nice upside if Ajayi can find his way to double-digit touches.

WR Adam Humphries, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Admittedly, Humphries would be a hard sell to play in just about any but the most insanely deep fantasy games, but I like this spot for him. He did only haul in one catch last week for a 6-yard touchdown, but with V-Jax out and Evans facing a tough matchup with Trumaine Johnson, the ball has to go somewhere. I still expect 7-10 targets to go to Evans, but Humphries should see a handful as well, and he's topped 50 yards twice this season. I like his chances to put up a career-high yardage day.

TE Tyler Kroft, CIN (Wk. 15: @SF): Ok, you can't trust a guy with just 4 catches on the season in your fantasy playoffs...I get it. But, there is some DFS punt play appeal. 2nd-string QBs tend to have a rapport with 2nd-string pass catchers, and Eifert's status is likely in doubt this week as he suffered a concussion in the week he returned from a neck stinger. Kroft pulled in 2 catches for 31 yards in relief of Eifert on Sunday, and he could see a bigger role in a game the Bengals should win easily. The 49ers rank 23rd in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends.

TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): The Belldozer has put up stat lines of 3-68 and 3-49 in two of his past 3 games, and is in line to start at TE again if Vance McDonald is out once more. Bell actually led the team in receiving last week against the Browns. He's a streaming option in super deep leagues as the starting tight end on a team that likes to utilize the position.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you advance to the title game (or to the semis if your league goes through week 17. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about something I wrote, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally here...championship week. Hopefully all of the weeks of waiver wire moves, bold lineup decisions, and Sunday and Monday nail biting have paid off, and you still are left standing with a chance to bring home the title. This week should be all about making the lineup decisions that you can live with even if you happen to lose...does that mean playing it safe and rolling with your stars (even if they haven't necessarily been that this year), or does that mean rolling the dice with a guy you feel good about this week? That's up to you. I'm here to give you a better feel of what to expect from your rookies this week, but it's up to you to pull the trigger and start them. Let's dive in...

Rookies to Start:

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. GB): The matchup isn't ideal, but you aren't sitting him after he dropped 40 points on the Eagles last Sunday (all points listed are in ESPN standard scoring). Johnson has averaged 157 yards from scrimmage and scored 4 TDs in his 3 starts since CJ2K went down, and this week faces a Packers team that ranks 18th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency). Johnson has RB1 upside again this week (although I doubt he beats the rest of the RB field by 10 points again).

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): The matchup is tough this week, as Cooper is likely to draw Jason Verrett and the Chargers allow the 4th fewest WR points in the league, but if you take away the goose egg Amari put up against Denver, he's put up lines of 7-115, 4-69, and 6-120-2 in the past 4 weeks with at least 8 targets in each game. He'll continue to see lots of volume, and the upside is just too high for you to leave Cooper on the bench despite some shaky weeks this season. He's a rock solid WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jameis gets an interesting matchup this week. The Bucs' offensive game plan is typically run-heavy and limits Jameis's passing volume, but the Bears have allowed some solid passing days on limited attempts this year. They've allowed over 20 QB points on fewer than 25 passing attempts 3 times this season, including 32 to Teddy Bridgewater on 20 attempts last Sunday, and have also allowed at least 21 QB points in each of the past 3 contests. I expect the game script to at least be neutral, and the Bucs pass volume to be limited again, but Jameis has shown a safe QB2 floor, and there is upside for a top-10 QB day.

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): There is a fear that Karlos will split touches with Mike Gillislee after Gillislee ran so well over the past few weeks, but Williams is the one who is built to be an every down back and I'd expect him to lead the committee. The Cowboys rank 27th in run DVOA, and Karlos averaged about 10 yards per carry in his return from a two-week injury absence. If Karlos is able to take the lead, I like his chances to return RB2 value and get back into the end zone for the first time since week 10.

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 16: @Sea.): The matchup is brutal and we've seen a low floor for Gurley, but his talent and volume give him some flex appeal. The Rams do have some history of being able to run on the Seahawks under Jeff Fisher, getting stat lines of 18-85-1 from Tre Mason and 26-134 out of Zac Stacy against them in the last two seasons, but those games were in St. Louis. This one is in Seattle. I'd lean towards sitting Gurley if you have better options.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Abdullah is coming off his best game of the year, and the 49ers run defense has been abysmal on the road. San Francisco allows 28.7 points per game to opposing RBs on the road (at least 22 in all 7 road games). They also rank 24th in run DVOA for the year. Abdullah was the overall RB14 in a plus matchup on Monday. He looked explosive, and more importantly, Jim Caldwell went back to him after he lost a fumble in the 2nd half. Betting on the Lions' run game is always a risky proposition, but Abdullah could have week-winning upside if you're willing to trust him with the title on the line.

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Although Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton are likely to vulture any short TDs, Artis-Payne should lead the backfield in touches yet again. He out-touched Tolbert and Fozzy Whitaker 16-9 a week ago, and this week faces the Falcons who allow the 4th-most RB fantasy points and rank 21st in run DVOA. Artis-Payne's expected volume should make him a low-end RB2 with the upside for more.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 16: @NO): Yeldon is very iffy for this week, and would likely split touches with Denard Robinson if he's able to give it a go Sunday, but boy does he get a juicy matchup. The Saints have only held 2 teams in their past 10 games under 19 RB points, and they rank 29th in run DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and be ready to roll out Yeldon if he seems to be close to 100%.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. StL.): Regardless of matchup, Lockett should remain a borderline WR3 in most formats. He's seen 7 targets in each game since Jimmy Graham went down for the year, and in those games he's been the overall WR28, WR4 and WR21. The Rams have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game for the full season, but have allowed 26.5 per game over the past 4, which would be the-4th most. Don't invent reasons not to play Lockett just becuase it's the title week.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Week 15 was just a taste of what DGB is capable of. He's now put up 14-285-1 over the past 3 games on 22 targets. With Mariota out due to a knee injury, you'd expect Green-Beckham's value to take a minor hit this week, but that might not be the case. Zach Mettenberger did target Dorial 7 times after taking over last Sunday, connecting with him 5 times. Dorial actually has a higher catch rate on throws from Mett than he has on throws from Mariota. His talent and role will keep him firmly on the WR3 radar this week.

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): If Rishard Matthews is able to come back from his rib injury this week, this is a situation best avoided for fantasy. If Matthews is out again however, Parker remains in play as a WR3 option. He's topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games, and the Colts allow the 5th-most WR points in the league. I'd feel more comfortable starting him as a 4th WR in leagues where that's possible, but he has upside once again.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): I'm almost inclined to list Tye as a 'Rookie to Start' this week, but I can't advocate starting him over proven studs like Barnidge, Olsen, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, etc. Tye has been no lower than the overall TE8 in the past 3 weeks, and he should see an uptick in volume this week with Odell Beckham suspended (I expect the suspension to be upheld). Tye should carry a low TE1 floor this week, regardless of the matchup. Every defense that Tye has started against so far has ranked in the top half of the league in limiting TE fantasy points (4th, 8th, 12th, and 15th). The VIkings rank 12th(tie) vs TEs in terms of points allowed, but also are 26th in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends. Tye should be safe to fire up again.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): Walford has seen target totals of 5, 7 and 7 over the past 3 games, and the Chargers rank 31st in pass DVOA against tight ends. His point totals haven't been overwhelming (10 total points in those 3 games), so he's more of a desperation streamer, but there is legitimate upside here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 16: @TB): Despite double-digit carries in games vs. the 24th, 23rd and 20th ranked run defenses in terms of DVOA, Langford has been held to 5 points in each of the past 3 weeks. Meanwhile, Matt Forte has tallied 17, 10 and 15 in those games. This week, they face the Bucs, who rank 4th in run DVOA. Langford is a desperation flex-play at best.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Jones gets a plus matchup this week, but he has proven to be unreliable over and over again. Every time we're convinced he's taken over as the lead back, Alfred Morris rears his ugly head again. This past weekend it was due to a Jones hip injury, and the rookie is day-to-day as a result of it for this week. That should allow Alfred to continue to mix in prominently in week 16. We've seen the big play ability of Jones a few times this year, and he has higher upside than Jeremy Langford this week due to the matchup, but like Langford, Jones is just a desperation flex option.

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Allen has totaled just 2 fantasy points total in the past two games and was out-carried by Terrance West last week after fumbling for the 2nd straight game. John Harbaugh claims Allen won't be banished to the doghouse this week, but West isn't going to go away and the Steelers allow the 2nd fewest RB fantasy points in the league. Pittsburgh also ranks 7th in run DVOA and 5th in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Buck isn't worth a starting spot this week.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 16: @KC): Even with an impressive performance last week in a tough matchup with Seattle, Johnson was still just the overall RB27 for the week. I don't expect him to be even that good this week against a Chiefs defense that is in the top-5 in the league at limiting RB fantasy points and also allows the fewest RB receiving yards.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Funchess managed to cash in for those owners who rolled the dice on him finding a touchdown last weekend, but do you really want to make it double-or-nothing against the #2 defense in the league in terms of wide receiver fantasy points allowed? Funchess is once again a low-volume TD dart throw this week, but not one I'd want to roll out there.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): I'm pretty much listing him for comic relief at this point. Agholor followed a 3-62-1 line in week 14 with a goose egg in week 15. There's no chance you're playing him despite a decent matchup.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Ajayi is a DFS punt option again this week. His role is too undefined to trust him in your fantasy title game. Miami's season is limping to the finish, and Ajayi saw some work with the game last week getting out of hand early. This week things may stay a bit closer, but the Colts have allowed 132.5 RB rushing yards per game in the past 4 weeks, and the Dolphins have consistently under-utilized Lamar Miller. Miller is averaging under 12 carries per game. There is a decent chance that Ajayi gets a bigger share of the load than expected once again this week.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Most people would probably still shy away from using Diggs despite his 2 TDs last week. The volume just hasn't been there. He's tallied just 11 catches and 120 yards in the past 4 games. With that said, I have a hunch the Minnesota pass volume is a little higher than we're used to this week. The Giants invite shootouts, and with AP nicked up, the Vikings might be inclined to oblige them. New York has faced 35 or more pass attempts in 12 of their 14 games this year, and 40+ in 9 of them. They've also allowed 28.5 WR fantasy points per game over the last 4 weeks, which would be the worst in the league as a season average. No one is questioning Diggs's talent. The increase in volume should make him an upside WR3 option.

WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. NE): Quincy is running as the full time #3 WR for the Jets with Devin Smith on IR, and the Pats' defense focuses on taking out the top options of the opposing pass attack. New England is 5th in pass DVOA against number 1 WRs, 14th in pass DVOA against number 2's, and 27th vs. all other WRs. While I'm hard pressed to mention formats where Enunwa is a viable option, he should be a decent bet to set career bests in catches and yards (currently 5 and 50).

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Williams put up a 5-31 line against the best fantasy TE defense in the league last week with Crockett Gillmore now done for the year. This week he gets a Pittsburgh defense that has been good against tight ends, but they have given up 75+ yards to the position 6 times in 14 games. Williams is nothing more than a DFS punt play, but 5 catches and 50+ yards wouldn't be surprising.

TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 16: @Det.): The Belldozer has 40+ yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and is fresh off receiving 8 targets last week despite Vance McDonald being active. The Lions have allowed 11 TDs to tight ends in 14 games, and rank 30th in pass DVOA against the position. If last week's volume repeats itself, Bell should at least threaten to crack the top-12 tight ends for the week.

That's all I've got this week. Hopefully it helps you to the league title. For those of you with a week 17 championship game or avid DFS players, I will do a quick column for week 17 as well. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always...good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

The 2016 NFL offseason is fully underway. Fantasy drafts are just a couple months away, pretty soon guys will start running plays without pads and we'll get some fake football in just about 3 months! (August 7, HOF game, GB v IND). There have been lots of big free agent moves, as well as some big time draft picks.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 5/3/16, NFL Draft 2016 Rookies & Free Agents)

Free Agent Moves

Quarterbacks -

Brock Osweiler (HOU, 4yr, 72mil) - Signed a massive contract with Houston - with numbers like that, he's undoubtedly the starter this year. I see his value as a mid to low QB2, but with the good receiving threats in Houston, he could have some decent upside.

Robert Griffin III (CLE, 2yr, 15-22mil) - The guy who wasn't even given the honor of Kirk Cousin's clipboard last year has signed with Cleveland for a modest deal, worth up to $22 million. RG3 still has to compete to earn his job against Josh McCown and (possibly) 3rd Round pick Cody Kessler. Given the rest of the offensive roster, particularly the receiving core, I don't know who'd even want the job.

Sam Bradford (PHI, 2yr, 36mil) - Re-signed with Philly for a number that might indicate he could be their starter. But then the Eagles traded up to the 2nd pick, drafted a QB (more on him later) and Bradford has been pouting ever since. Now, as of March 9th, it looks like Bradford has ended his holdout.

Mark Sanchez (DEN, Traded from Eagles) - Sanchez was traded for only a conditional 7th round 2017 pick AND the Broncos drafted a QB near the end of the first round. Despite this, it seems like Sanchez is currently the front-runner to start in Denver this year. The strength of the run game, WR core and that defense immediately puts him in the upper QB2 discussion, possibly a lower QB1.

Other moves: Ryan Fitzpatrick is still without a contract. It's been quite a drawn-out negotiation with the Jets, and a few other teams have dipped their toes into the water, but now it seems like there's a 50/50 shot that the Beard doesn't get anything done before the season starts. Chase Daniel signed for 3 years, 21 million with the Chiefs, but he's just their very well paid backup QB. Brian Hoyer signed on with the Bears as their backup (a position that has seen at least 1 start each of the last 6 years).

Running Backs -

Matt Forte (NYJ, 3yr, $12mil) - Forte is certainly going to be the opening day starter on the Jets, however he has both Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson behind him. Powell already is a solid 3rd down back, so Forte's role may be limited compared to what he's been used to most of his career. Forte being here in the first place is possible, due to the exit of...

Chris Ivory (JAX, 5yr, $32.5mil) - Ivory's landed himself a decent contract on a team that was not blown away by TJ Yeldon's performance last year, though it was still respectable. Ivory will be a serious weapon on a team that had the best pair of WR's last year, one of the best young QB's in the league, and some say, the best looking draft in 2016.

Lamar Miller (HOU, 4yr, $26mil) - Miller also landed a big contract, though it's still a little surprising that Miami let him go. In Houston, Miller will be the main head of a timeshare, though he's slated to get decent majority of the touches. He should be the RB1 we all have expected him to be in the past.

Alfred Morris (DAL, 2yr, up to $5.5mil) - At first, this move looked like a good one for Morris - he would be running behind an offensive line that got Darren McFadden over the 1000 yard mark last year. Then draft day came and now it looks like Morris will be firmly in the 2nd position on the depth chart where he might just be called in for short yardage situations when Elliott needs a breather.

Demarco Murray (Traded to TEN) - Most people would agree that Murray was not used right in Philadephia last year, and he should improve just by moving to a new team. Despite the Titans selection of Derrick Henry in the 2nd round this year, Murray should be a guy who gets a lot of carries this year.

Other RB Signings: Arian Foster is still a free agent, having stated that he will wait until he's fully healthy before signing with a team. Stevan Ridley signed with the Lions. Marshawn Lynch retired, leading the way for Thomas Rawls to take over.

Wide Receivers -

Marvin Jones (DET, 5yr, $40mil) - Wide Receiver was clearly the thinnest position in free agency this year, this being the biggest move and the best free agent is proof of that. Jones will attempt, with Golden Tate, to fill some megatron-sized shoes.

Travis Benjamin (SD, 4yr, $24mil) - Leaving the depleted Browns WR core in even worse shape, he arrives in San Diego, a team that had a very depleted WR group last year. Hopefully Keenan Allen returns to form this year - if so, he and Benjamin could provide a solid 1-2 punch for Philip Rivers, with Antonio Gates taking care of the middle of the field.

Mohamed Sanu (ATL, 5yr, $32.5mil) - It's been a good off-season for ex-Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers. Sanu will be replacing Roddy White in the Falcons offense, and should prove to be a lot more useful than White's last couple of years. Sanu could wind up as an every week starter as a WR3/flex early on in the season.

Other WR moves - Mike Wallace signed with the Ravens. Brandon LaFell signed with the Bengals - they're one of the only teams that really lost depth this year. Nate Washington signed with the Patriots. Rueben Randle signed with the Eagles. Rishard Matthews is on the Titans now. Still unsigned: Anquan Boldin, Roddy White, Andre Johnson

Tight Ends -

Ladarius Green (PIT, 4yr, $24mil) - Green moves into the Steelers' high powered offense to replace the retiring Heath Miller (pause for Heeeeeeaaaaath). Green wasn't going to be the featured guy in San Diego, with Gates coming back for another couple years. We can assume that he's going to love his new spot, and so will, I assume, Ben Roethlisberger. Green is an easy TE1 this year.

Coby Fleener (NO, 5yr, $36mil) - It seems that the Saints have realized that they need to have a serious TE in their offense, and Ben Watson is not going to last much longer, so they turn to youth. Fleener should be an easy TE1, as he was a good receiving TE when he had Andrew Luck throwing him the ball, he just wasn't getting enough chances.

Martellus Bennett - (Traded to Pats) - Bennett's act was wearing thin in Chicago, so the bears sent him to New England (what a terrible punishment). He'll be the best compliment to Gronkowski since Aaron Hernandez - let's just hope he can keep his head on straight.

Other TE Moves: Ben Watson signed with the Ravens. Gates, Zach Miller, Dwayne Allen re-signed. Vernon Davis signed with the Redskins. Jared Cook signed with the Packers.

2016 Fantasy Rookies (see Shawn's Article for in-depth player profiles)

Quarterbacks:

Jared Goff (Rnd 1, Pick 1, Los Angeles Rams) - The Rams traded an awful lot away to acquire the number 1 pick. I expect to see him under center for their first game in L.A.

Carson Wentz (Rnd 1, Pick 2, Philadelphia Eagles) - This is the pick that has Sam Bradford's panties in a bunch. The Eagles traded up to pick Wentz, but with the money they just paid Bradford, it's hard to know who will be the starter this season.

Paxton Lynch (Rnd 1, Pick 26, Denver Broncos) - The third QB taken in the first round, the Broncos also traded up to pick this QB. Lynch doesn't seem like he's going to start right away in Denver, probably to get some time behind a veteran QB.

Christian Hackenberg (Rnd 2, Pick 51, New York Jets) - This pick adds to the mystery surrounding who will start this season for the Jets. Will it be Geno Smith? Will they sign Fitzpatrick? Can the rookie compete for a starting job?

Running Backs:

Ezekiel Elliott (Rnd 1, Pick 4, Dallas Cowboys) - Some people thought that the Cowboys would go elsewhere with the 4th overall pick, but I see this as Jerry Jones being unable to pass up the shiniest, best toy in the store. Lucky for him, this one is real gold, rather than the fool's gold Manziel pick that he almost took a few years ago. Elliott should start right away, and I'm already hearing people talk about him as a potential overall #1 RB in fantasy for this season.

Derrick Henry (Rnd 2, Pick 45, Tennessee Titans) - Henry will get plenty of work in his rookie campaign, but may not be very fantasy relevant with DeMarco Murray carrying the load this year in Tennessee.

Kenyan Drake (Rnd 3, Pick 73, Miami Dolphins) - Drake is a speedster that will be a compliment to Jay Ajayi in the running game. This is good news for Ajayi owners, as it seems that this pick indicates that the Dolphins will be full speed ahead with Ajayi as the starter.

C.J. Prosise (Rnd 3, Pick 90, Seattle Dolphins) - Shawn's overhyped sleeper did indeed shoot up the draft board, being the 4th overall RB taken.

Wide Receivers:

Corey Coleman (Rnd 1, Pick 15, Cleveland Browns) - The Browns needed WR depth perhaps more than any other team. They wound up taking three more WR's in the 4th and 5th rounds. It's clear that the WR position is as up for grabs as any in the league this year.

Will Fuller (Rnd 1, Pick 21, Houston Texans) - Shawn predicted that some team would fall in love with Fuller and his deep ball capability, and he was right. That team was Houston, and it might actually be a good fit. With Fuller lining up opposite of DeAndre Hopkins, Brock Osweiler has some fancy new toys to play with this year.

Josh Doctson (Rnd 1, Pick 22, Washington Redskins) - Shawn's favorite WR in the draft, Kirk Cousins has a nice compliment to DeSean Jackson. Add Jordan Reed to the mix, and you have a receiving core than can keep up with some of the other big names in the division.

Laquon Treadwell (Rnd 1, Pick 23, Minnesota Vikings) - Can someone say WR run? The Vikings haven't had a proper number 1 at WR in a while, so this pick was obvious. Pairing 3rd year QB Teddy Bridgewater with some rookie talent is just the ticket now that the Vikings are moving their games back indoors.

Sterling Shepard (Rnd 2, Pick 40, New York Giants) - As Shawn said, Shepard is the best slot receiver in the draft, and filling that need is going to help the Giants a lot. Odell will be able to hang out on the outside more often, and they need to replace Rueben Randle's receptions anyway.

Michael Thomas (Rnd 2, Pick 47, New Orleans Saints) - The Saints always cycle through a lot of WR's every year - heck, every game really. There will be chances for the rookie, but I don't think he'll be emerging as a fantasy starter this year.

Tight Ends:

Hunter Henry (Rnd 2, Pick 35, San Diego Chargers) - Shawn went three for three on the TE draft order, and had Henry at the top. Henry was clearly the top TE this draft and went to a team that doesn't take the position lightly. Knowing that Gates will be gone in a few years and Green is now in Pittsburgh, drafting Henry is a smart move for the long term, but don't worry about him in redraft leagues this year.

Austin Hooper (Rnd 3, Pick 81, Atlanta Falcons) - The Falcons are still trying to replace Tony Gonzalez, and while Hooper isn't exactly anything special like Gonzalez, he should get some opportunities right away.

Nick Vannett (Rnd 3, Pick 94, Seattle Seahawks) - He's a big TE that got drafted by a team that has a lot of buyer's remorse with the currently injured Jimmy Graham. He'll certainly take some time to develop into a regular starter, but he could rise fast if Russell Wilson likes throwing him the ball.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

239 Yards from Scrimmage

Kareem Hunt had a hell of a game on Thursday night, after an inauspicious start to the game. Thankfully, Andy Reid stuck with his rookie and he broke the record for the most yards in a debut game since the merger in 1970. Hunt's performance included 3 touchdowns and landed him the top fantasy points spot in Week 1. His teammate Alex Smith finished second, putting up a very un-Alex Smith like 368 yards and 4 TD. Both players are the only ones to score above 30 points in both standard and PPR formats, topping a rather pedestrian fantasy football Sunday to start the season.

2 of the top 10 ADP

Only two of the top 10 ADP players scored in double digits yesterday. Antonio Brown put up 18.2 points, followed by LeSean McCoy with 15.9. Granted, two of the top 10, Ajayi and Evans, were on that always fun Week 1 bye, but a lot of big names really struggled. Bell & Johnson had all of 55 yards on 21 carries between the two of them. Maybe Melvin Gordon can save this group tonight with a good performance, but really, the fantasy stars of this past week were mostly not the guys who we expected.

4 of the top 15 Point Scorers

Rookies have four of the top 15 point totals so far this week in fantasy. Lead by Hunt, we also saw DeShone Kizer, Kenny Golladay and Leonard Fournette turn in big fantasy performances. While I don't know what to expect long term from the Browns QB, I do expect the other three guys to be impact fantasy players all year long. Other rookies making big contributions to their team were Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey and Tarik Cohen. The league is always getting younger, your fantasy team should reflect that. Don't get stuck using veterans all the time.

29:23 TD to INT Ratio

I'm sorry that I don't have a better theme than "lackluster" for the first week of the NFL season. So far, NFL passers have a pitiful 29:23 touchdown to interception ratio. This pales in comparison to the past two opening weekends, which were 48:19 in 2016 and 50:31 in 2015. We're down nearly 20 touchdowns to last year's opening count, so maybe Drew Brees and Philip Rivers can help close that gap. I don't expect that Sam Bradford and Trevor Siemian will contribute much to that department, but hey, it's been a strange Week 1.

31 Years Old

31 Years Old? What is this, some RB playing beyond his years? A WR that refuses to slow down? Nope, it's the Rams new coach, Sean McVay, the youngest coach in NFL history. McVay's Rams had, hands down, the most dominant victory of the day, beating the Colts 46-9. There were a lot of encouraging fantasy players in this game. Jared Goff got his first 300 yard game, Cooper Kupp had 4 receptions and a TD and Todd Gurley had 24 touches and also found the end zone. The Rams defense may be the bright spot, even without Aaron Donald playing this week. Even more credit goes to McVay, who helped orchestrate the return of Donald to the team after his holdout. With him in the lineup next week, the Redskins are going to have a very long day.