Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Each new fantasy football season brings along its own sets of dos and don’ts during the draft that depend on a ton of different variables: among them changing schemes in the NFL, teams forming committees at a specific position and your league’s specific rules and draft inclinations. This show is all about how to identify those things and use them to your advantage to draft the best possible team this season.

Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/2/16: How to Draft a Winning Team in 2016

Important off-season moves and updates in 2016:

Fitzpatrick finally re-signed with the Jets – One year, 12 million dollar contract.. ups the values of all offensive players on the Jets. Thoughts on the Jets chances this year? As good or better than in 2015.

Arian Foster signs with the Dolphins – And he looks like he’s in great shape and will easily take over the #1 role in Miami. The issue is that by mid-season the Dolphins may not have a healthy RB between Foster and Ajayi!

Rams relocating to Los Angeles from St. Louis – This news seemed like an eventuality.. how will the team moving affect their performance this season? As they’re a rebuilding team, will it even matter at all? Probably not.

Josh Gordon is back in the game – He’ll miss the first four games but will be back in uniform.. after last year it may be tough to trust this guy but he is the only receiver in the NFL to ever record back-to-back 200 yard games, he’s only 25-years-old and he’s clearly making an effort to turn things around.

Philadelphia Eagles sketchy QB situation – Not only are they keeping Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel (and paying them a decent amount to boot), but they traded up to No. 2 in order to draft Carson Wentz as their up-and-coming guy. Not to mention the fact that new head coach Doug Pederson will likely tone down the formerly pass-happy offense.

Steelers are shooting themselves in the foot – With all of the suspensions and injuries so far this year (Le’Veon Bell - 4 games, Martavis Bryant - 2016 season, Senquez Golson – Lisfranc injury, 12 weeks) the Steelers need to straighten up and fly right. The season hasn’t started yet, guys!

Eddie Lacy – A P90X workout all off-season with founder Tony Horton has helped Lacy get back into shape and he could once again be a top 5 RB option for the 2016 season.

Peyton Manning finally retires – and backup Brock Osweiler walks to Houston where he’ll be the starter. I think I could throw a few passes to Deandre Hopkins, but in all seriousness this is actually a decent landing spot for the new QB. Lamar Miller looks to finally have a bellcow role there as well. Can the Texans be a playoff team in 2016?

Tom Brady – Looks like Brady will finally be getting those 4 games that he was able to avoid in 2015. Jimmy Garoppolo will stand in for him during those first few games.

Draft Strategies for 2016:

Best Overall – Regardless of the many draft strategies out there, this is always a good option. Simply put, it means either creating or grabbing a set of overall rankings that you trust and believe in and then taking the best player available at all times (with the possible exception of later when you have too many of a particular position, etc). Even if you end up taking more RBs or WRs than you wanted early, for example, you could trade them off for the types of players that you might be looking for later.

Zero RB – A lot of writers out there have done pieces on the Zero RB strategy for fantasy football, but it was pioneered by Shawn Siegele at RotoViz several years ago. The idea is basically that going RB heavy has long been a fixture of fantasy football drafts since there are not usually many ‘bellcow’ RBs available. This draft strategy is setting up your team to steadily improve as the season goes on and gambling against the injury risks that seem to occur more often with RBs than with WRs due to their exposure and frequency to big hits. A team that drafts RB heavy in the first few rounds may start off strong but not be able to get over the mid-season or playoff hump as the injury issues begin to take their toll. This is not to say that WRs are immune to injury themselves, of course!

If we look at statistics from past years, it’s common that the top RBs at the end of the season are not even close to the top RBs that were drafted – according to research by 4for4.com, for example, less than half of RBs drafted in the top 10 in the last 5 years ended up providing top 10 value.

Contingency-Based Drafting – Another way to draft which can piggyback on the Zero RB strategy is to draft against injuries. Author and former day trader Nassim Taleb came up with a term for this – something that benefits from chaos – called antifragility. This would refer to a team that is built so that if a random injury, etc was to happen the team may actually get better, or at least doesn’t struggle. If RBs touch the ball more than WRs than we wouldn’t want to draft them using high picks because they would be more likely to succumb to the randomness of injuries. RBs are also more replaceable by their counterparts.. with some exceptions, an average running back can become a fantasy stud if you put him behind a great offensive line. If your 1^st round pick tears an ACL, that is far more damaging than an 8^th, or 9^th, or 10^th round pick.

This strategy, therefore, champions drafting multiple RBs in a committee, or grabbing RBs from the waiver wire during the season. The other teams that are drafting RBs early are the same ones that pick up handcuffs that may not be worth anything, and have weak WRs because of their early dependency on RBs.

Grab pass-catching RBs – Whether in PPR or not, grabbing RBs that also have a role in the passing game like Charles Sims, etc is a good bet for teams that want to wait for most of the draft before picking up players in the RB position. Also guys that may be in a committee but are behind a strong offensive line.

Each week, there are hundreds if not thousands of news articles, opinion pieces, injury reports, and more written about the NFL. It's my hope to try and sort out some of these and bring to the top the most relevant and interesting headlines that you can use to set your weekly fantasy lineup with confidence. Want to send me questions/comments/suggestions? I can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

- Kirk Cousins was a top fantasy football QB over the last half of the 2015 season. Looks like he's trying to duplicate that effort again. At 349 passing yards per game with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio, Cousins is making it happen. For most fantasy leagues it's past the trade deadline, but if you're a Cousins owner you should be starting him until he proves otherwise.

- Thomas Rawls was on waiver wire lists everywhere last week. Finally healthy and ready to resume his role on the Seattle offense, he was picked up in most leagues where he was not already owned. It was assumed that he would slowly take carries away from rookie C.J. Prosise, but after Prosise suffered a scapula injury and Seattle dropped their black sheep former starting RB Christine Michael, Rawls is thrust once again into the spotlight (where he performed so well last season). I would expect more of the same this season.. Rawls may take a few lucky teams to the championship.

- Andrew Luck may not start this week as he's in the league's concussion protocol. What will this do the offensive gems from the Colts like Moncrief, Hilton and Allen? From my perspective, it gives them a bit of a hit. If Luck does miss Week 12, Scott Tolzein will start and his impact is not very clear (limited sample size) but it's a definite downgrade from Luck. On the plus side, this may actually be a boost to Frank Gore, who the Colts will likely lean on.

- A.J. Green went down early in the Bengals' game, clutching his leg in obvious pain. After what was feared to be a severely torn hamstring, the latest news is that it was just a strain (partial tear) which should only keep him sidelined for a few weeks instead of the rest of the season. But with all of the injuries to other Bengals' players as well - is it worth it to even bring him back in what could be a lost season? My fantasy teams would sure love to have him back out on the field!

- Stefon Diggs did not practice on Tuesday and that should be a concern to both his owners and also to those who may have or be picking up Adam Thielen from the waiver wire. He went for 65 yards and a touchdown this past week and has been productive in general but much more so when Stefon Diggs has been out (Week 5 vs. HOU - 127 yards and a touchdown). In other news, do the Vikings turn it back around at the end of the season? They play Detroit this week to determine the King in the North.

- David Johnson has 30 less receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins. Yep. That's a thing.

- Jordan Howard has been a welcome surprise from a Bears' offense that has otherwise been blown up from both injury and general lack of talent and coaching ability (that last one is questionable, but there is still a strong possibility that there are changes made there). He's rushed for over 100 yards on average these past 3 games. Now with Cutler and Miller out (in addition to Jeffery), will his production go up, or down? I think we'll see some kind of rotation there going forward which may not be a great thing for fantasy owners.

- LeSean McCoy dislocated his thumb and the medical staff was unable to pop it back in for McCoy to go back out in the game last week - signs point to him starting this week but injuries like this one can sometimes cause players to be limited or held out. Mike Gillislee again becomes a good flex play regardless of whether or not McCoy plays in Week 12.

- Giovani Bernard tore his ACL at the end of the game last week, which puts Jeremy Hill in the forefront of a team that no longer has its major offensive assets available. What are the odds that Hill's fantasy production increases? Pretty good.

- Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles both suffered injuries last week (knee and ribs, respectively), which allowed for rookie RB Wendell Smallwood to step into the driver's seat. He performed fairly well, running for 48 yards and catching 4 passes for 31 yards. Smallwood will have a role this week regardless of whether or not Sproles suits up, as Mathews' MCL will likely leave him sidelined.

- Jay Cutler suffered a torn labrum in the game on Sunday, which may land him on IR. The Bears' quarterback situation does not lead to any fantasy relevance, but this will curb any thoughts of playing Bears' offensive options besides Jordan Howard.

- T.J. Yeldon went down with an ankle injury, which should cement Chris Ivory as the lead back in Jacksonville.. that should lead to more fantasy points, but it certainly wasn't a great omen when Ivory fumbled just after Yeldon exited the game. Yikes!

Each week, there are hundreds if not thousands of news articles, opinion pieces, injury reports, and more written about the NFL. It's my hope to try and sort out some of these and bring to the top the most relevant and interesting headlines that you can use to set your weekly fantasy lineup with confidence. Want to send me questions/comments/suggestions? I can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

- Colin Kaepernick had a regular season fantasy high with 32 points in Week 12. That's Kaepernick, with a 'K'. Hard to believe after the guy was not even going to be a starter this year, but this is how it goes. Looks like Kaepernick will now be in the starting QB discussion from week to week. Shocker!

- Drew Brees is a fantastic QB. We all know that already, but he sits at #2 just below Aaron Rodgers and above Matt Ryan in standard scoring leagues this year. Yes, he plays better statistically at home.. but it seems like he's an every week start from here on out.

- Taylor Gabriel has been a surprise, putting up his 4th double-digit performance in as many weeks. The issue here is that they have mostly been big plays and he is still trailing in targets to other receivers on the team. Can we trust him going forward? Coin flip! Yeah, baby!

- LeSean McCoy had a dislocated thumb and there were many voices out there saying that he might not be a suggested start. Well, those voices be damned, McCoy has been a stud almost every outing and this past week was not any different. He also now has 3 matchups upcoming against teams that have not been great against the run this season (Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland).

- Brandin Cooks should have had points this past week. Right? Not in this reality.. while 9 other individual Saints players scored at least 5 points each.. Cooks had 0. Should we be worried about Cooks? I don't think so - the Rams had gameplanned to take away Cooks and they did.. but they also forgot to play football.

- Julio Jones was held to just 3 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues (for the 4th time this season, actually). Can this be attributed solely to the coverage that he received in those games, or is something else going on there?

- Rob Gronkowski was active and, in fact, looked ok for a bit - before injuring his back on an attempted diving catch. Unfortunately, he exited the game afterwards and was even seen gingerly going down a set of stairs. Ouch, Rob. Will he play next week? Fantasy owners want to know! Personally, I might wait a week even if he does start.. chest/lungs injury and back injury? Doesn't sound great for a receiver. By the way, Bennett has an ankle sprain and is not an option to start in his stead, should he not play.

- Thomas Rawls is taking over the backfield for the Seattle Seahawks.. but Seattle was just awful offensively. He should recover going forward if his track record last year is any indication.

 - Robert Griffin III has been cleared for contact.. how soon will he take over for McCown? How will this affect the Browns' offensive players for the rest of the season if he does make starts during the fantasy playoffs? Positively or negatively? A healthy Griffin should be a boost to the offense in general, if all goes right.

- Sammy Watkins is back and catching 60-yard passes. What's up! He is a much-needed component of the offense and will be producing fantasy points for owners during the playoffs. A good time for him to come back healthy? You're damn right! But is he a WR2 or a WR1 going forward? That's the question.

- Adrian Peterson is back sprinting - if he's available should you pick him up in a league? Duh!

- Jordan Matthews is a watch going forward.. if he's limited, he should not be considered a good play in this writer's opinion. 

Each week, there are hundreds if not thousands of news articles, opinion pieces, injury reports, and more written about the NFL. It's my hope to try and sort out some of these and bring to the top the most relevant and interesting headlines that you can use to set your weekly fantasy lineup with confidence. Want to send me questions/comments/suggestions? I can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

- Jordan Howard is who we thought he was. And that was especially apparent when snow became a factor in the game for the first time this season. Usually a run-heavy game in this type of situation, Howard did not disappoint optimistic prognosticators when he put up 117 yards and 3 TDs on 32 carries. The Bears play Detroit this week, who have a better-than-average rushing defense and have only allowed 6 TDs on the ground this season. Still, with the rest of the Bears' offense a mish-mash of inexperience and disappointment (for the most part), he should be highly ranked this week.

- Tyrell Williams has a torn labrum in his shoulder, but he still played 96.4 percent of the snaps this past week for a season-high. During his senior year at West Oregon (2014) he also played with the same injury before having surgery in the offseason, so there is a precedent there - seems like the Chargers would not have had Williams out on the field the whole game one week removed from an injury if they were not intending on starting him going forward!

- Julio Jones has turf toe, according to reports, and that injury brings with it a hugely variable amount of outcomes. For some players they can push through it, but sometimes it causes an athlete to sit out for weeks at a time. This is shaping up to be one of those situations where Jones could be playing more as a decoy and would not be a good play for your fantasy team. Both Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu could benefit a great deal from Jones being out, and may be worth a speculative grab if they're available in your leagues.

- Colin Kaepernick was putting up top-10 fantasy points at his position for a few weeks before the Bears' game fiasco (1/5, 4yds before being benched for Gabbert). A lot of that can be attributed to other shortcomings of the 49ers offense, but it was apparent that Kaepernick was not doing them any favors. The 49ers will roll the dice again with Kaepernick this week against the Jets. Mostly because they really don't have any better options.

- Joe Flacco was a boon to anyone who may have started him last week in fantasy (surely a very small number). 36/47, 381 yards & 4 TDs / 1 INT are pretty impressive numbers. He won't be repeating that performance against New England this week, but it can't be denied that Flacco is occasionally brilliant. Just like the Ravens.

- David Johnson rushed 18 times for 84 yards and a touchdown along with 9 receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown. Yep. David Johnson is the shit. Any questions?

- Travis Kelce is now the TE1. After a somewhat slow start to the season, his last 3 games he has gone over 100 yards (140 yards last week) receiving. Jeremy Maclin is coming back soon though (perhaps this week) - will his return impact Kelce's performance negatively? I think it will remain similar or even increase when Maclin comes back from his injury.

- Ladarius Green finally put to rest all of the rumors swirling around him at the beginning of the season regarding health concerns. He broke out in the Giants' game for 110 yards and 1 TD on 6 receptions.. and he still only played for less than half the snaps. Green should be a TE1 for the rest of the season - the Steelers finally found a complement to Antonio Brown.

- Thomas Rawls was back in late-2015 form against the Panthers. With a rotating door at RB this season, Rawls is finaly healthy and should provide a burst for owners down the stretch. It's hard to find a RB with fresh legs this late in the season!