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Some of the shittiest teams in the league are on bye this week, resulting in a lot of unpredictable match-ups on the schedule for week 8. The largest point spread this week opened at just 5.5 points for New England over Buffalo, the first time in weeks there wasn't a double digit spread. This would be my pick if the Patriots were still available to me, as I have my highest points on them in the confidence pool as well. Without a healthy McCoy I see no way the Bills can hang with the Pats.

The next big favorites are the Broncos, Vikings, and Cowboys. I think the Broncos and Cowboys will probably take care of business in these games, but I am shying away from both of them. The Cowboys are at home vs an impressive looking Eagles team coming off an upset victory over the previously undefeated Vikings. In doing so I think they may have given teams the formula to dismantle Sam Bradford, bring the pressure! Maybe they are able to do the same thing to Dak and take control of that division.

I think a fired up Bears team with a returning Jay Cutler upset the Vikings at home on Monday night. The Bears season is essentially over, this will be one of their only opportunities to feel good about themselves this year. Like him or hate him, Jay Cutler possesses physical abilities that Brian Hoyer does not. If the Bears can come out focused and get an early lead I like their chances. Minnesota is a team that thrives on playing from ahead.

The Broncos are similar to the Vikings in their need for early leads in games. When these teams met 2 weeks ago the Chargers got an early lead and dismantled the Broncos. If it wasn't for some special teams mishaps for San Diego, the final score would have been embarrassing. Maybe Denver does much better at home with a normal NFL week to work with, but for that reason, I am not picking them either.

Last week I had the Bengals over the Browns in the battle of Ohio. The Bengals knocked the Browns 3^rd starting quarterback of the year out of the game and cruised to a two touchdown victory.

Starting their fourth quarterback of the year this week I felt like the Jets were a slam dunk pick. My confidence was reduced slightly when it was announced that Josh McCown may return for this game. At the very least he is an NFL quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a chip on his shoulder after being benched for lousy Geno Smith. Baltimore beat Cleveland, New York just beat Baltimore equals a Jets win, that's just math. Expect big numbers from him and his receivers in this one as the Browns get one loss closer to that number 1 pick in next year's draft.

Cheers! Drink Five!!

           Week Pick

         1      Seattle

         2      Carolina

         3      Miami

         4      New England

         5      Arizona

         6      Tennessee

         7      Cincinnati

Well, last week was a doozy. My Steelers tied the Browns (loss in my book), we had a few injuries, and the leading QB was Fitzmagic. Hopefully you came away with some W’s and made some moves on waivers to improve the squad!

Week 1 recap

Last week, we watched Alfred Morris and Matt Breida vs the Vikings defense. I predicted that Morris would get the goal line work and get into the end zone. Well, I was right in the fact that Morris got the redzone carries, but he fumbled while reaching for the goal line that might have cost the 49ers the game. Carries were pretty evenly split. Brieda had 11 carries for 46 years, and Morris had 12 carries for 38 yards. Missed my prediction as they are still going to be splitting carries, but Morris could be a sneaky flex play this week against the lions.

The second watch-list was on the Indianapolis backfield. Wilkins did get the bulk of the carries and didn’t look too bad considering the OL problems for Indy. He rushed 14 times for 40 yards and caught all three balls coming his way. Signs are pointing to Mack coming back this week so it will be interesting to see how this muddy backfield will work moving forward. A positive was Nyheim Hines. If you are in a PPR league I would urge you to grab Hines. He caught 7 of 9 targets (only 33 yards) but lined up all over the field. Andrew Luck passed the ball 53 times on Sunday. I don’t expect him to throw 50+ every game, but do expect the Colts to be down and relying on Lucks arm to stay in games. 

The final watch-list from week 1 was Aaron Rodgers' targets. I predicted that Allison would be the second highest targeted receiver on the Packers and he was! (tied With Adams who I expected to lead). I was wrong about Cobb. He looked great, and the connection he has with Rodgers can’t be ignored. His ankles look fantastic as well!  Cobb, Allison, and Adams all ended with good fantasy days and touchdowns. Hopefully you grabbed Allison, he has solidified his role in the offense.

Denver Backfield

Royce Freeman was the highest drafted Bronco RB and had a decent first game out there. He rushed 15 times for 71 yards but didn’t have any targets in the passing game. The surprise last week was fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay. Lindsay rushed 15 times for 71 yards and caught 2 passes for 31 yards and a Touchdown. Freeman owners were worried about Booker stealing carries, but now it looks Lindsay is the threat and this is a full-blown committee. It will be interesting to see how the carries are distributed this week against Oakland.

Prediction –Both rookie running backs continue making the most of their time on the field. Lindsay has some flashy plays but Freeman finds the end zone leaving fantasy owners scratching their heads week 3 on who the back to own is in Denver.

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets

 

One of my biggest surprises week 1 was the Jets Lions game. I expected a blowout, but did not expect the Jets to be on the winning end. Except for the very first play, Darnold looked great. He was poised in the pocket and managed the game well. He also targeted Quincy Enunwa 10 times! The next closest Jet had 3 targets. I tried to grab Enunwa everywhere this week as he is Darnold’s first read and should continue to get a good chunk of targets weekly. With Jermaine Kearse coming back this week it’ll be interesting to see how those targets are distributed.

In the Jets backfield, Powell got the start but split carries with Crowell. Powell had 13 rushes for 65 yards and Crowell (CAWWW) had 10 touches for 102 yards and 2 TDs. Most of those yards came in garbage time on a 62-yard TD run, but the Crow looked good! If the offense continues to produce both backs could be viable flex/RB2 plays.

Prediction- With the Dolphins coming to New York, Darnold has another great game but spreads the ball around a bit more this week. Crow finds the end zone twice for the second week in a row and the Jets move to 2-0.

Steelers vs Chiefs

Being a Steeler fan, they are always on my must watch list. This week is special because they are coming off a horrible week 1 and run into an offense that is arguably scary then theirs. Tyreek Hill is a freak. He went 7-169-2 and added another touchdown on a punt return. He is no doubt electric and silenced the few critics out there that didn’t think he could keep up with limited opportunities. We also got a glimpse of Patrick Mahomes cannon. In a game where Kelce and Hunt were quiet, the Chiefs still managed to put up 38 points against a stout Chargers secondary.

On the other side of the fence is the Steelers. After a heart breaking tie to open the season, there is still no Le'Veon Bell. James Conner shined in his first start rushing 31 times for 135 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also caught 5 of 6 targets for 57 yards and is a strong RB1 until Bell decides it’s time to come back. Bell was seen in Miami at a club until the wee hours of the morning on Tuesday so I do not expect that to be anytime soon. Even without Bell, the Steelers have an offense that can keep up with the Chiefs and I expect our Defense to get after Mahomes.

Prediction – In the highest scoring game of the week, the Steelers come away with a win. Antonio Brown is the #1 WR of the week and Kelce and Hunt owners can sleep well with great bounce back performances.

Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!

Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.

If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.

Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!

Cheers,

Drink Five!

New England Patriots

What’s changed since last year? With superstar TE Rob Gronkowski retired (for now, anyway) along with the departure of former Colts TE Dwayne Allen, the Patriots needed depth at the Tight End position and signed former Bronco Matt LaCosse, and the aging Ben Watson (who played with the Pats / Brady from 2004-2009). While not much has changed with the RBs besides adding third-round rookie Damien Harris to push Sony Michel, the Pats are throwing WRs against the wall this year to see what sticks. New additions include N’Keal Harry (rookie), Jakobi Meyers (UDFA), former Redskin Maurice Harris, and former Bear/Saint Cameron Meredith.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Beat reporters have continued to espouse praise on UDFA Jakobi Meyers, but it’s too early to put a stamp on him as anything other than camp hype. The most likely breakout WR on the team currently is a toss-up between Phillip Dorsett (5^th year) or Maurice Harris (4^th year). Dorsett plays more outside snaps than Harris, but Harris has drawn the attention of coaches as of late due to his big body (6’3”, 205 lbs). I think it’s likely that Dorsett has the edge currently due to his speed and draft pedigree (4.33 40-time, 2015 1^st rounder).

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Again, I like Phillip Dorsett here, he is currently not being drafted in fantasy leagues with an aggregate ADP of 300 (WR100), but if you follow the money he was given a $500K bonus this offseason, which is more than Inman, Thomas, Harris, Davis, and Meyers, and with Josh Gordon out of the lineup, Dorsett was playing at a WR3/4 pace with 60% more targets than he had otherwise. Contingent on a few variables, Dorsett could be a steal in the last round of your fantasy draft.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? With the departure of Rob Gronkowski, it’s a little tougher to find the every-game studs on this offense, but that title here clearly lies between Julian Edelman (ADP 43, WR16) and Sony Michel (ADP 52, RB25). Edelman finished as a WR2 or better in 75% of his games last year and should continue to be Brady’s favorite target. Michel has been great, but there are concerns with his knee, third-round rookie Damien Harris, and the other RBs (James White, Rex Burkhead, etc) taking away work. Bottom line: Edelman will still be very attractive in PPR leagues but looking at their overall possible fantasy values for 2019 I’d go Michel by a hair.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? I can see UDFA Damien Harris being drafted (currently 12^th round ADP in standard leagues), but then dropped when Sony Michel dominates the short yardage and goal-line work on the field. Injuries happen often at the RB position though, and if Michel’s knee acts up or he gets injured in another way on the field, Harris should be the guy that gets the nod. Similarly, if Julian Edelman is unable to play all 16 games, Maurice Harris will be a popular one.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? N’Keal Harry was the #32 pick overall in the 2019 NFL rookie draft but is still having some mental issues in camp (not surprising in Belichick’s offense). UDFA Jakobi Meyers is enjoying a ton of hype right now but the WR corps are crowded this year and the veterans will likely retain the starting slots as we get closer to the regular season. Damien Harris was drafted early to get some work, but the only likely regular rookie starter for the Patriots this year is Harry – he was drafted to play right away.

Miami Dolphins

What’s changed since last year? The Dolphins tried to be a good team over the past several years – they really did! But after little to no success, they are finally entering a rebuilding phase. Jettisoning Ryan Tannehill, Miami picked up both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen to head up the offense, and recently acquired Allen Hurns from the Cowboys. They drafted some RB depth in Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin, and picked up Dwayne Allen to help out at TE.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Former Chief Albert Wilson (WR69) may fit the breakout WR role this year, as he was on his way to doing just that in 2018 before going down with a season-ending hip injury. In the 7 games he played last year, he recorded the best YAC per reception (13.3) of any WR with at least 35 targets. The 2^nd best was 7.9, which shows just how elusive and high-level he was playing at. He’s also #1 over the last 2 seasons for forced missed tackle per reception rate out of any receivers with a minimum of 25 receptions. He was trending toward a stat line of 50+ receptions for 800+ yards and 8+ TDs before going down.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Jakeem Grant (WR138) is a name to remember as a sleeper, he’s a 4^th year WR for the Dolphins that started as primarily a KR/PR specialist with breakaway speed, but they asked him to learn to be an outside receiver in 2017. He suffered an Achilles injury which ended his 2018 season, but not before becoming the 2^nd person (after Andre Roberts) in NFL history to catch a TD pass and return both a kick and a punt for TDs.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Dolphins offense does not contain any studs (which I would qualify as an approximately top-20 player at their respective position), but the closest would likely be Kenyan Drake (RB26), who scored 9 TDs last year and excels as a pass-catching RB. The issue there is the possibility of Kalen Ballage (RB45) cutting into his workload, and the uncertainty of a new coaching staff’s choices with their playmakers.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Kenny Stills (WR62) could be a monster if we get a lot of deep balls in games coming from behind this year. His ADP has him being drafted in the 19^th round, which means that quite a few leagues will still have him on the waiver wire. Here is a guy who has demonstrated solid WR2/3 seasons in the past and he could have one again. Fitzmagic, anyone?

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Both Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin were drafted for RB depth and shouldn’t provide real fantasy value this season – but watch out for UDFA Preston Williams, a 6’4”, 211 lb. receiver who has already been impressing this preseason. Note: he was forced out of his college career at Tennessee due to a domestic violence arrest.

Buffalo Bills

What’s changed since last year? The Bills need to continue building around 2^nd year QB Josh Allen, and they did that in the offseason by signing WRs John Brown and Cole Beasley, TE Tyler Kroft, and RBs Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon. They also drafted third-round rookie RB Devin Singletary, to add some youth to the RB room.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? A true 3^rd year breakout candidate, Zay Jones (ADP200, WR66) was picked by the Bills in the 2^nd round of the 2017 draft, and has steadily improved his production since then. More than doubling his output from his rookie year, 2018 (and new QB Josh Allen) saw Jones’ stats rise to 56 receptions for 652 yards and 7 TDs. Adding John Brown should help take some pressure off of Jones and allow for him to emerge as the #1 WR for an up and coming Bills team and a WR 2/3 in fantasy.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? This really shouldn’t be the case, as John Brown (ADP 167, WR59) has had terrific seasons in the past with the Cardinals, and more than a few good games with the Ravens (before Lamar Jackson took over for Flacco and passing went out the window), but Brown can and should excel as a deep threat on the Bills with QB Josh Allen. His current ADP leaves him as undrafted in some leagues, but he has plenty of spark left, especially with Allen’s deep ball being one of the best in the league.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? No studs to find here just yet, the highest drafted player in standard leagues on the Bills is LeSean McCoy (ADP 101, RB40). Younger talent is developing but needs more time to marinate!

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Look no further than the Bills’ RBs: LeSean McCoy had only 3.2 YPC last year, and Frank Gore just turned 36. Happy Birthday, Frank.. time to consider retirement, maybe? Third-round pick Devin Singletary (ADP 142, RB53) crushed it in College last year (FAU, 33 TDs, over 2000 yards from scrimmage), and he has the goods to push for the starting job in Buffalo. He was clearly drafted to take over the reins. There is certainly a scenario where the aging McCoy and Gore keep the job, but I think Singletary has a good chance to finish the season as the starting Bills RB.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Already mentioned was Devin Singletary, and fellow rookie Dawson Knox could provide some value at TE, but is not a recommendation for anything but dynasty leagues at this point.

New York Jets

What’s changed since last year? Well.. let’s start with Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder as the most impactful offseason adds – the Jets also brought in Ty Montgomery and Ryan Griffin for offensive depth (and in Giffin’s case, at least some games as the starter while Chris Herndon is suspended for 4 games).

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? He’s had some good years already, but in 2019, 4^th year WR Robby Anderson (ADP 74, WR29) may be primed to be a top 10-15 receiver in the league. Robby is not a smart man based on his constant brush-ins with the law, but he is one of the best downfield receivers out there. In fact, he was the #2 WR in the entire league over weeks 14-16, only behind DeAndre Hopkins. Over that span, he put up an average of 20+ fantasy points per game. Adding in Le’Veon Bell as an additional threat should only give Anderson more opportunities to get open in this offense.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Take a look at Jamison Crowder (ADP 213, WR71). Crowder has showcased his talents in the slot while on the Redskins (averaged 100+ targets and 66+ receptions over the 2016 and 2017 seasons), and now steps into the Jarvis Landry role with Adam Gase as the new head coach of the Jets. If he can avoid major injuries, Crowder will find a lot of success in this surging Jets’ offense pairing up with Sam Darnold. In 2017, Crowder was the WR41 in standard and WR33 in PPR leagues. He is a great speculative pickup in the late rounds of this year’s draft for a WR4/5.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? No question here, Le’Veon Bell (ADP 7, RB6)  will dominate touches in the backfield – the Jets are paying him to do so, and he still has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Chris Herndon (ADP 201, TE23) is suspended for 4 games to start the season because of his DUI arrest last June. Because of this, he likely won’t be drafted in most fantasy leagues without deep rosters, but he is definitely someone to look at acquiring in late rounds or before his suspension ends. In 2018, Herndon finished at the TE15 in standard leagues as a rookie and he played several games in TE1 territory.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Jets drafted Trevon Wesco as TE depth, but he will not likely have any fantasy relevance. Quinnen Williams was the #3 overall pick but won’t be much help to the offense as a Defensive Lineman!­­