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Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Trey Lance

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has said throughout the offseason after selecting rookie QB Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 rookie draft, that Lance will have a “tough time” becoming the starter this year. But is that just coach-speak for “he’ll be starting after a few regular season games”?

Well, let’s take a look at the details here: Garoppolo was the QB just two seasons ago when the surging 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl to lose to the Chiefs 31-20. Lance, on the other hand, has been flashing some highlights in practice and impressed the world with an 80-yard touchdown play to wide receiver Trent Sherfield in this past weekend’s preseason game.

That said, news from the 49ers beat reporters has remained consistent: Trey Lance continues to show his upside in loose practices, but Garoppolo is far better at situational football. It’s important to remember that when you’re constantly blowing out teams (like Lance generally enjoyed in college at North Dakota State), you don’t get a ton of real world practice in high-pressure, two-minute drill, game-winning, come-from-behind types of situations.

Garoppolo will make over $24 Million over the 2021 NFL season and provide the 49ers with a stable, veteran structure to make it to the postseason and compete for another Super Bowl with a win-now stable of talent.

The 49ers traded up to get Lance in this year’s draft - trading 3 first round picks and leaving them without a first round selection until 2024. But Garoppolo is playing for his life and a future home in another NFL city. My money is on Jimmy G retaining the job this year, barring injury. Trey Lance’s era in San Francisco most likely begins in 2022.

Cam Newton vs. Mac Jones

When asked about whether he was going to start Week 1 for the Patriots at a press conference this past Monday, Cam Newton said: “Y’all sitting up here asking silly questions to me and I’m looking at y’all with the same thing. I don’t know what y’all want me to say…You know, you know that. You know he hasn’t said that, so for you to just ask the question, it is what it is.”

It’s clear that the QB1 spot for the Pats is still up in the air with the team drafting Mac Jones as the 15th overall pick this year and Cam Newton’s less-than-stellar performance at the position last season. Stats after the first preseason game? Newton went 4-7 for 49 yards while Jones went 13-19 for 87 yards. Admittedly Jones had more playing time.

Yesterday’s scrimmage session with the Eagles resulted in good numbers from both of them, with Newton going 13-15 and Jones going 13-14 on the day. Notably, the Eagles kept calling Cam the ‘Checkdown King’. We have a lot of preseason football to go and plenty of Patriots fans are calling for Jones to get the nod in Week 1, but if we look at Belichick historically it’s much more likely that Cam will be the one lining up to start on September 12th against the Dolphins.

Belichick and the Pats in general tend to favor the more experienced players unless the competition is head & shoulders above them. Interestingly, there are reports out of camp of Newton/Jones being slotted in for quick plays inside of each others’ series so there may be some extra trickery at foot. This one is still anyone’s game based on preseason performance.

A few big upsets in week 4 and the field has dwindled to 790, a little less than half of the original entrants. If the Bengals wouldn't have been able to complete their comeback Thursday against the Jags half of the remaining survivors would have been eliminated. As expected, the top pick Buffalo Bills with 420 selections blazed their way through the Texans 40-0. But sadly my secondary pick fell short when the Titans couldn't pull out a late comeback against Jets in OT. To my surprise the Jets 1^st win was only the second biggest eliminator of the week, with 146 losing on the Saints compared to 123. The Titans showed me they are too weak to trust against the Jaguars even with all the distractions. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice.... you can't get fooled again.

A team that did impress me last week were the New England Patriots and there stout defense against the Tom Brady and the Bucs. This defense will give the rookie Mills fits and the Pats offense will score enough to pull off this road win. I went back and forth between Pats and Vikings for this pick. But last week the Vikings offense got shut down and for some reason I'm not comfortable picking against Detroit here. The Pats won out here because picking against Houston and getting to use a middling team like the Pats was too good to pass up.

Another strong pick is the Cowboys, but I think I'll be able to find a better spot to use them.

Cheers DrinkFive!

ENTRY #1                               ENTRY #2

            RAMS                                   BUCCANEERS

            BUCCANEERS                       BROWNS

            BRONCOS                            CARDINALS

            BILLS                                  TITANS

            PATRIOTS

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

7 of the Top 12 QBs

Quarterback continues to be a volatile position in fantasy football. This certainly has not been the case in years past, but this week alone, 7 of the top 12 QBs by fantasy points are not owned in the Drinkfive league. Part of the issue is that many top guys were out with injury, bye weeks, or...other issues. Another problem is that many top guys under performed - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes combined for fewer points than Josh Johnson. Of course, credit must go to Josh Johnson, who put up big numbers in the (garbage) time he had vs the Colts on Thursday night. Colt McCoy and Trevor Siemian also get big kudos for turning in good performances in their first starts of the season, finishing as the QB11 and QB12 respectively. Overall, the 7 QBs that are unowned in the top 12 represent just 38% average ownership (in Fleaflicker leagues) - that number also is heavily weighted by Matt Ryan’s 81% ownership rate - he’s a free agent in our league right now. So, the lesson here is that volatility can happen in any fantasy football market, including at the traditionally stable quarterback position. If you planned on streaming QBs this year and didn’t invest draft capital in a QB, you’re definitely benefiting from that decision now.

31.4 Fantasy Point Average for the Top 4 RBs

I’ve been pointing out the lack of production from the top of the running back position over the last few weeks, and especially how there’s tons of production from wide receivers. This week was the opposite of that - maybe they got my message? Anyways, we saw huge performances from James Conner (37.8), Jonathan Taylor (33), Nick Chubb (29.3), and Joe Mixon (25.5). This was better than any wide receiver for the week so far. In fact, the best wide receiver owned in 90% or more of Fleaflicker leagues is Keenan Allen, who finished as the 15th best flex player this week (RB/WR/TE). The top 4 RBs on the week combined for 9 touchdowns, 646 total yards, and averaged nearly 8 yards per touch. Quite the week from all 4 guys, all of whom put up their best fantasy game of the year. Final note - even after that huge week, Jonathan Taylor remains the RB2. Derrick Henry still has both more points and more rushing yards than Taylor.

3 WRs with 2 TDs

It was a down week for wide receivers for sure. Only 3 of them managed to find the end zone twice, and stop me if you’ve heard these names on this column before (you haven’t). Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Malik Turner all found the end zone twice this week, and none of them managed to go over 100 yards receiving. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from any of those three - they are owned in an average of 16% of Fleaflicker leagues. Most of that ownership is probably Elijah Moore in dynasty leagues. Only 4 wide receivers did reach the century mark for receiving yards - the same number of RBs who reached that number of rushing yards. This is the first week where the RBs were able to pace the WRs when it came to games over 100 yards - usually it’s close to a 2:1 ratio in favor of the wideouts. 

17.1 Fantasy Points

George Kittle returned to the lineup on Sunday, giving the TE position a much needed boost. In fact, we saw the top 3 drafted tight ends finish 1-2-3 so far on the week. George Kittle was the top finisher, scoring a touchdown and gaining over 100 yards, leading all tight ends in week 9. Travis Kelce was right behind him, and Darren Waller made the most out of his 11 targets, which led all tight ends this week. This is the first time since week 1 of this season that all 3 guys have finished in the top 10 scorers. Of course, after them, 4 of the next 5 TEs were owned in an average of less than 4% of Fleaflicker leagues. This just goes to show that all it takes to be a decent fantasy tight end is that you find the end zone. In fact, 8 of the top 10 TEs did find the end zone, and the #10 guy who didn’t, Jared Cook,  at least was able to get a few points from a 2-point conversion

10 D/STs over 10 points

10 points is a great benchmark for your defense/special teams slot. If you can get 10 or more points, you should definitely be happy. This week, there were plenty of opportunities for you to land a D/ST that could do that for you, but only if you chose wisely. The top team this week were the New England Patriots, the team that consistently just drinks Sam Darnold’s milkshake. The Pats put up 20 points with 3 picks (one of them a pick-six), a sack, and only 6 points allowed. Then it gets interesting. If you had the guts to pick against some of the top offenses in the league, then you stood a great chance of doing well. The Browns (vs CIN), Jaguars (vs BUF), and the Titans (@ LAR) all were able to score at least 16 fantasy points for you. Those three D/STs combined for 6 interceptions, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TDs, 2 fumble recoveries, and an average of just 13 points allowed. One other crazy thing about this week’s D/ST stats - the Texans and Dolphins played against each other and both teams scored at least 15 points against the opposing offense. Truly, that was a game that should have been played on Thursday night.