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28
December

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2019 - Week 17

Folks, this is what we have been preparing for!

We have reached the last week of the NFL season, and the last week of the Confidence Pool. If you have been following along with my picks, you should be in pretty good shape right now and just need one more solid week to clinch a win in your season-long pool. But hey, might as well throw in a weekly payout on top of that as well, right?

Normally, Week 17 is always a tricky one. With only one week to go, playoff spots and seeds are almost entirely figured out already, which means that star players end up getting a Sunday off. Obviously, this adds a degree of difficulty when making your Confidence Pool picks.

Not this year!

Heading into the final week of the season it seems like only 2 or 3 of the 12 playoff seeds have been determined. No need to worry about whether Tom Brady will be in all game – he will. Will Patrick Mahomes be under center from start to finish in KC? Absolutely!

It has been another great football season! Thank you all for following along all year!

We’ll see you in September!

WEEK 17 – HERE WE GO!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – I’m pretty sure the Patriots could play their practice squad and still win this one.

15 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – This may be the last game with the Chargers as we know them – I see big changes ahead.

14 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – Take a deep breath, Bears fans…its almost over!

13 – DALLAS over Washington – The Cowboys should be able to pull out an easy win to end the year … buuuuut …

12 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK GIANTS – …the Eagles will still win their game and win the NFC East.

11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – After revamping The Curse of the Super Bowl loser, the Rams appear to be stuck in salary cap hell for the next few years, so this may be the last taste of victory they have for a while!

10 – New Orleans over CAROLINA – It’s a close call with the Bears, but I think the Panthers, with everything they have gone through, may be the most disappointing team this year.

9 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – The division is wrapped up, but the Texans are still playing for the 3 seed.

8 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – The 9ers were one of the last teams to lose a game this year, and now they may not even win their division.

7 – Green Bay over DETROIT – The Packers are still playing for the 1 seed in the NFC, that’s bad news for the Lions.

6 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – The Bills are set at the 5 seed in the AFC, but still should be able to pull one out against the Jets.

5 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Baltimore is in rest mode, but the allure of knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs is still something for them to play for.

4 – Oakland over DENVER – It’s a crazy scenario, but my BOLD PREDICTION to end the 2019 season is that THE RAIDERS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR.

3 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – One more chance for the Falcons to make me look like an idiot this year.

2 – Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – It’s funny that both these teams are out of playoff contention, but the outcome still matters to the Raiders playoff hopes!

1 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – Now that they have locked up the first pick in the draft, the Bengals can win a game without sacrificing their future.

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08
October

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 5

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

This was supposed to be the first week of Bye Weeks. Thanks to the Titans though, we have already gotten a good taste of missed games.

And thanks to their collective irresponsibility, navigating through Bye Weeks and just weeks teams don’t play will be as easy as navigating Minesweeper – and as easy to understand as well.

Nevertheless, games are currently on slated to be played this week, so we need to decide our confidence in their victors!

Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – PITTSBURGH over Philadelphia – Aren’t too many games you’d think an NFC East team will win outside of a divisional game!

14 – NEW ENGLAND over Denver – Still no Cam this week – doesn’t really matter when going up against…I don’t know, whoever is under center for the Broncos.

13 – BALTIMORE over Cincinnati – I really think Joe Burrow will be a solid franchise quarterback – he just doesn’t have enough to keep up with the Ravens offense.

12 – SEATTLE over Minnesota – You can’t play Bill O’Brien every week, Vikes!

11 – Tampa Bay – over CHICAGO – I know this is technically a battle of 3-1 teams…but…I mean…come on…

10 – DALLAS over New York Giants – Lucky for the Cowboys you don’t need to have a solid defense when playing the Giants. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE COWBOYS WILL WIN THE NFC EAST… WITH A LOSING RECORD.

9 – Los Angeles Rams over WASHINGTON – It was smart for Washington to move away from Haskins, but it won’t be enough to have a chance this week.

8 – HOUSTON over Jacksonville – I don’t think the Texans have been this motivated to win a game in quite some time!

7 – KANSAS CITY over Las Vegas – Obviously this game should be higher, but we all saw the picture of Stephon Gilmore with Patrick Mahomes. There are still a few days for a positive Mahomes test.

6 – Indianapolis over CLEVELAND – Just like the Bears, the 3-1 record for the Browns is pretty deceiving.

5 – Buffalo over TENNESSEE – This could be the easiest points you get this year if the game is a forfeit!

4 – Arizona over NEW YORK JETS – The Cardinals definitely NEED a game against the Jets to right their ship

3 – SAN FRANCISCO over Miami – Yes the 9ers are the better team, but my Fitzmagic senses are tingling…

2 – NEW ORLEANS over Los Angeles Chargers – Yes, the Saints are the better team, but my Herbmagic sense are tingling…(wait, that sounds like something different…)

1 – ATLANTA over Carolina – At no point can you have a large amount of confidence is you think the Falcons will win.

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16
October

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 6

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

So, for some reason, the league is still deciding to have a week 6 even though the Raiders aren't playing. I'm as confused as you surely are!

so here are the picks :)

You know, thinking about it, the schedule complications created from COVID has actually added a degree of intrigue for the confidence pool.

If you are anywhere but first in your season long pool, obviously you need points (that’s not the new part). Throughout the week, we will hear about practice facilities being shut down due to positive tests. When you hear that, red flags are thrown up regarding that teams scheduled game for that week.

You have to keep this in mind when filling out your sheet. For example, with the fiasco the Titans went through, you may have wanted to drop their game down a few lines in the event that the game gets canceled after your picks are submitted. Game gets cancelled – you lose the chance at points! Better to lose out on gaining 5 points than gaining 10 points.

That being said, let’s keep it rolling!

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – NEW ENGLAND over Denver – If Cam is ready to go this is a cinch. If he’s not, well, its still a pretty game to call.

13 – MIAMI over New York Jets – Speaking of easy games to call – the Jets are playing someone!

12 – INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati – All signs point to this game happening, so the Colts will have a chance to easily get back on track.

11 – MINNESOTA over Atlanta – I mean, the Falcons…I know Dan Quinn is out now…but…why have confidence in them?

10 – TENNESSEE over Houston – The Titans made a big statement against the Bills last week and should be able to further their hold in the AFC South this week.

9 – JACKSONVILLE over Detroit – The Lions have a lot of work to do, that’s for sure.

8 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – The Browns and Bears (as we’ll see a little later)...are both 4-1…don’t believe in either of them.

7 – Los Angeles Rams over SAN FRANCISCO – It looks like the Super Bowl Loser Curse is definitely a thing this year.

6 – Green Bay over TAMPA BAY – If you can score a lot of points, you can beat the Bucs – the Packers are more than capable of that.

5 – CAROLINA over Chicago – Remember what I said earlier, well, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that BOTH THE BROWNS AND BEARS WILL MISS THE PLAYOFFS.

4 – BUFFALO over Kansas City – Remember in Rocky IV when Drago got cut and showed he can be beat, well the league should thank the Raiders for the right cross they gave KC last week!

3 – PHILADELPHIA over Baltimore – Pure hunch…puuurrrrreeeee hunch!

2 – Arizona over DALLAS – Kyler gets to shine on the Monday Night stage for the first time and won’t waste the opportunity.

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – Congrats, city of New York! It takes a home game against a team that doesn’t even have a nickname to get your first win between your two teams!

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07
December

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 13

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

statistically insignificant header image

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

3 Safeties

Safeties are coming in bunches this season. Yesterday, there were three scored by three different teams - the Indianapolis Colts, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Seattle Seahawks. The first two were via sacks and the last one was a blocked punt that was nearly recovered for a TD instead of a safety. But, as I said, these things come in bunches. Of the 15 safeties that have been scored this season, two came in Week 2, three came in Week 3, and three more came in week 11. Minnesota has been involved in 3 of them - giving up 2 of them early in the season and finally returning the favor this week against the Jaguars - a must-have score that came in a game that wound up going to overtime. Indianapolis has been involved in 4 safeties this season - 3 in their favor and one against them, on a flag for intentional grounding in the end zone. The Seahawks have also been involved in 3 safeties this season - all 3 of them in their favor and all 3 of them occurring in weeks where 2 other teams have managed to score a safety.

1,039 Receiving Yards

Vikings rookie WR Justin Jefferson is now third among all wide receivers in the league (through Sunday's games) with 1,039 receiving yards. As expected, as a rookie, he started the season slow with only 70 yards in his first two games. Since then, he's averaging 97 yards per game, has put up 5 games over 100 yards, and scored 7 touchdowns. He's now the #4 fantasy wide receiver with 178.6 points on the season, averaging about 15 points per game. With drop-offs of all the rookie QBs who were once playing well this season, Jefferson's name is now coming up in offensive rookie of the year conversations, and he could definitely be a strong contender if he keeps up this pace to close out the season. Jefferson's pace is rather historical, he has the second-most receiving yards by a rookie WR through his first 12 games. He's quite behind Odell Beckham's pace of 1,305 in 2014, but he's slightly ahead of Randy Moss in 1998 and Anquan Boldin in 2003. All three of those guys won the offensive rookie of the year award.

1,114 Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce turned in another huge game on Sunday night and is now just 5 yards behind the league leader in receiving yards - DK Metcalf with 1,119 yards. Kelce is 4th in the league with 82 receptions and naturally leads all tight ends with 8 touchdowns. Kelce is leading all TEs is all statistical categories and is just shy of 200 points on the season. His average of 16.5 points per game is almost 4 points ahead of the second-best TE, Darren Waller. Waller had a historically great game on Sunday against the Jets, scoring 38.5 fantasy points, the best mark on the season for a TE by almost 6 points (and the high-water mark for Week 13 so far). In the Raiders' last-second victory over the Jets, Waller had 13 receptions for 200 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. This is the 4th time in NFL history that a tight end has had a game with 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. He'll need a lot more games like this if he wants to catch Travis Kelce for the points total this season - Kelce still has roughly a 45-point lead with just 4 games to go in the NFL regular season.

31 Fantasy Points on a D/ST

The New England Patriots turned in the D/ST performance of the season on Sunday while visiting the Chargers in Los Angeles. Their 31 points tops the Falcons' 28 points they got just last week. The Patriots tore apart rookie QB Justin Herbert and held him to a 49.1% completion rate for 209 yards and 2 interceptions. Along the way, the Patriots returned a punt for a touchdown and also blocked a field goal attempt at the end of the 2nd quarter, and returned that for a touchdown as well. Add 3 sacks and zero points allowed to all of that and you arrive a 31 fantasy points for a D/ST that had a decent chance at being on the waiver wire, as they're only 66% owned in Fleaflicker leagues. This performance sort of came out of nowhere considering the Patriots D/ST has scored 32 total points since Week 4. Next up for the Patriots, the other Los Angeles team, again in Los Angeles, coming up on Thursday night. A quick turnaround might mean that the defense is still pumped up for this rematch of Super Bowl LIII.

4 of the Top 10 QBs

I like to use our drinkfive.com fantasy league as a way to find interesting or noteworthy stats, but often I find us a bit lacking in some areas. Often this comes in the form of nobody owning a kicker worth a damn on any given week (The top 3 this week are owned! But only 4 of the top 10). D/ST is another position where this crops up, this week nobody had the Patriots and only 5 of the top 10 teams were rostered. This also occasionally happens at the tight end position, but what I never find is a staggering lack of ownership at the quarterback position. This week, only 4 of the top 10 QBs (so far, there are 6 guys left to play) are on rosters. This is mostly due to the fact that there were lots of big performances from the middle and lower tiers of QBs. Derek Carr led the way with 4 total touchdowns, one of them a last-second bomb to keep the Jets winless. Baker Mayfield’s 4 first-half touchdown passes vaulted him into the QB2 spot of the week, scoring a Browns record 38 first-half points.