Dion Lewis has exploded onto the fantasy scene as the newest versatile running back on the Patriots. There always seems to be room for a guy who can run and catch on the New England offense, and this year, it's Lewis's turn to give it a go. Thus far, Lewis has averaged almost 15 touches per game, not having fewer than 13 in any game. He's in the top 10 of fantasy scoring for RB's, and he's played fewer games that everyone except Adrian Peterson and Le'Veon Bell....not bad company.
Lewis was drafted by the Eagles in 2011 in the 5th round. Though he had played well in college, he had to take a back seat to a dominant LeSean McCoy. Lewis is definitely undersized for the NFL, checking in at only 5'8", 195lbs. This has never really been a problem for the Patriots, as they've had a few good ones recently, like Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead.
So, how does Lewis shape up for the rest of the season? Well, he's currently sharing backfield duties with LeGarrette Blount. Blount has 19, then 13 touches in his two games this year. The only danger in Blount and Lewis not at least splitting touches comes whenever the Patriots are blowing out their opponent and they just go with Blount all game. Lewis winds up with a decently high floor every game since he catches passes out of the back field and can line up as a wide receiver. He has 23 receptions in only 4 games, which will continue because Tom Brady knows how to get the ball to his backs.
Lewis should be a safe play most of the remainder of the season, and I'm predicting right now that he finishes in the top 10 RB's in standard leagues. That's pretty good for a guy who was the 59th ranked RB in the preseason on FantasyPros, and had an ADP that was way lower than that. It looks like Dion Lewis is the lucky waiver pickup of the early part of the season.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
300 Yards
Julio Jones became the 6th player ever to hit the 300-yard mark in a single game, putting up the monster stat line of 12 rec, 300 rec yds, and 1 TD. Everyone who panicked after week three's 16-yard performance can direct their fears elsewhere (Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick come to mind). Jones will be fine going forward, namely because his QB is the best so far in 2016. Matt Ryan currently leads the league in passing yards (1473), passing TD's (11), has only 2 INT's and even has 2-2 pt conversions. His 109.62 fantasy points are 20% higher than the second highest scoring QB, Drew Brees.
0 Points
The Patriots were shut out for the first time at home since 1993, which predates the Belichick era. The last time the team was shut out was in Miami in 2006. Of course, most people would agree that the lack of points comes from a distinct lack of Tom Brady. Brady's suspension is over now and he'll be eager to get going after leading the league in touchdowns last season. It's time for the Tom Brady Middle Finger tour, you almost feel bad for the Cleveland Browns.
152.5 QB Rating
Ben Roethlisberger put up a 152.5 QB rating against the Kansas City Chiefs, who had been giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QB's. Ben's 300 yards, 5 TD performance will certainly put a dent in those numbers. This is the 8th game of his career where he finished with a QB rating over 150 - he has 3 games with a perfect score of 158.3. The Steelers struggled last week, but with the return of Le'Veon Bell, expect full steam ahead with the best QB-RB-WR punch in the league.
19 Points
No kicker has put up 20 points yet this season. Mike Nugent and Dustin Hopkins both share the top spot with 19 points. Why bring this up, you ask? Throwing darts at a wall is as good an option as any when it comes to picking a kicker week to week. Nobody is that consistent - AHEM, Stephen Gostkowski and your zero points. Well, this column is called Statistically Insignificant, after all. This stat is pretty useless. The third best kicker this season is only owned in 11% of leagues - there's a stat you can use. Now go pick him up, or throw a dart at the wall, I don't care - it's a kicker!
77.60 Points
DeMarco Murray has 77.60 points already this season, helped along by his 5 touchdowns. He's first among non-QB's, and 8th overall among all players. He's got the number 2 guy, Melvin Gordon, beat by 10 points. Stand up if you had these two guys leading the league after 4 weeks, even above the stud WR's. Of course, one person did have them - my opponent this week, damn you ReDraft!
Well the Vegas fix was in last Sunday in full force. More importantly, I will consider my pick a win since I was picking in a rigged week. Exhibit A can be see here:
This Duke Johnson phantom fumble undermined my premonition of the Browns first win. In all my years watching football I have never seen a play more baffling than this fumble. Duke insta pops out of the pile with the ball as the ref signals Redskins football.
The second fix came in the 4th quarter of a tight Rams Cardinals game. The powers that be made the call that Carson Palmer had to come out of the game because he took a big hit and could have a concussion. Surely somebody bet the house on the Rams money line and stood to make a fortune on the 8.5 point dog. I have no doubt that a brain-dead Carson Palmer would have outperformed Drew Stanton and led the Cardinals to a 4th quarter comeback win at home.
As it stands 128 of the 163 eliminated this week were on that Cardinals pick, trimming the survivor total list down to 314 from the original 871. This coming Sunday I will be fully endorsing the pick against Cleveland strategy. The New England Patriots should be a no brainer. An angry Tom Brady will be making his 2016 debut as a 10.5 point favorite on the road vs the Browns.
Cheers, Drink Five!
Seven months. Seven…long…months. We’ve had to go seven months without football!
No more though! Football is back!
We are just days away from the Super Bowl Champion Patriots kicking the season off against the Chiefs. With the return of football comes the return of the confidence pool! Have no fear, we are back for another year of picks to help you win your pool…you’re welcome, by the way!
We’ve been waiting long enough, so let’s get to it!
Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – NEW ENGLAND over Kansas City – Patriots play game…Patriots win game. Stiiiiiiil waiting for this process to stop!
14 – HOUSTON over Jacksonville – Football is obvious not on the top of the priority list in Houston right now. But you can be that those fans will be rocking as they will finally have a positive break for a couple hours.
13 – Atlanta over CHICAGO – Did you know that the Falcons had a sizeable lead in the Super Bowl last year? Did you know that they didn’t hang on to that lead and lost the Super Bowl? Yeah, they remember too.
12 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – These two teams are just going to be BAD this year. Unfortunately for the Jets, they just traded away their one hope of stopping LeSean McCoy, the only person who will be able to move the ball forward on a consistent basis this game.
11 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – The Redskins are a dark horse to win the tough NFC East this year. The Eagles won’t have enough to slow Kirk Cousins down.
10 – Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND – Ben Roethlisberger flirted with retirement this off-season. Martavis Bryant might not have been reinstated this off-season. Le’Veon Bell’s holdout might go into the regular season! Well, Big Ben is back, Bryant is reinstated and Bell signed his tender…sorry Cleveland.
9 – GREEN BAY over Seattle – Week 1 gives us a potential NFC Championship to some with this matchup. Not me know, I think Seattle is starting to slip.
8 – MINNESOTA over New Orleans – Adrian Peterson comes home and has a point to prove against his old team. Unfortunately, his new team can’t stop an offense to save their lives.
7 – DENVER over Los Angeles Chargers – It was hard enough last season remembering that there was a Los Angeles now – now I have to remember to put the team name too? Geez this is hard! Denver will take this battle of the bottom half of the AFC West.
6 – Oakland over TENNESSEE – I had mentioned earlier that the Patriots pattern of winning needed to stop…it will in January. My first BOLD PREDICTION of the 2017 season is that THE OAKLAND RAIDERS WILL WIN THE AFC AND GO TO THE SUPER BOWL.
5 – Carolina over SAN FRANCISCO – Some are saying that the 49ers should be favored in this game. What did I miss? I understand that there is a new regime in San Fran but it won’t be enough to stop the Panthers and their new toy Christian McCaffrey.
4 – DALLAS over New York Giants – This pick is based on Ezekial Elliot NOT playing. If, for whatever reason, Elliot plays, bump the ‘Boys up a few lines.
3 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – If either of these two teams want to show that the division is just “Pittsburgh and Friends” they will need to do so right off the bat. The Bengals get the nod here with the game being played in Cincinnati.
3 – Tampa Bay over Miami – Sooooooooo I would put thought into the reasons for my pick here. But there’s a good chance that this game won’t be happening Sunday. Thanks a lot Irma!
Editor's Note: The NFL has officially moved the game to Week 11, and so you can disregard this pick.
2 – DETROIT over Arizona – Matthew Stafford is now the highest paid player in the league. He will need to start showing why against top teams like the Cardinals.
1 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Indianapolis – Thanks to a horrible defense and an Andrew Luck injury, the Rams should look like a legitimate professional football team this week.