Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

157 Yards

Thursday night, David Johnson set the season high for rushing yards with a 157 yard, 2 TD performance - adding 3 catches for 28 yards. Johnson was the focus of the offense with Carson Palmer out, running the ball 27 times. The Cardinals were able to roll over the 49ers and start to right the ship. They'll get 11 days to recover before playing next Monday night, so look for Palmer to be back and the team to continue to improve.

3 Punt Return TDs

I complained after two weeks that we weren't getting enough returns. Things have started to average out, but the totals are still below where they should be. This week, Red Zone watchers were treated to three punt return TDs in the first half of the noon games. The Dolphins, Redskins and Vikings all rewarded their fantasy owners (probably just Vikings owners out there) with a return TD. This brings us to 7 of the most exciting plays in football we've seen this year.

406 Yards

The Tom Brady Middle Finger Tour 2016 kicked off with a bang in Cleveland. Brady lead the week in passing yardage, getting his 8th career game over 400 yards. This game also featured the proper 2016 return of Rob Gronkowski, going over 100 yards, though Gronk owners squirmed while Martellus Bennett got 3 TD's. The Bengals are the next victim on Brady's list, as he gets some good home cookin' against a team that just can't catch a break.

81 Years

The two top kickers this week have a total of 81 years between them, and they are outperforming all of their younger counterparts. Adam Vinatieri was the first kicker to pass the 20 point mark, going 5/5 with 2-50+ yarders and tacking on an extra point as well. Meanwhile, Sebastian Janikowski went 4/5 after having only 4 attempts through the first 4 weeks. Congrats gentlemen, you're the best fantasy kickers this week.

5-0

The Minnesota Vikings are the last undefeated team in the 2016 season. This is a team that has replaced it's starting QB before the season started, lost its hall of fame running back, yet they're just rolling over everyone in the NFC. Minnesota is on bye for week 6 and has a big matchup against the Eagles coming off the bye. The Bears and Lions in the following weeks means that at least a 7-1 start is all but wrapped up for the Vikings.

Relatively safe slate of games last week, with only Carolina claiming 4 victims, bringing my big pool down to 58 survivors. The Bears might be up for spoiler of the year award this season by only showing up for games they have no business winning.

Congratulations if you went with my pick last week. Dallas delivered in a big way winning 40-10 against the 49ers.

This week's pick is the Minnesota Vikings in their match-up against the Cleveland Browns. There is so much I love about this game. First, it has been proven through repeated testing that only half the teams scheduled ever show up in London for the game. Next, this is a great spot to use your Vikings pick. They are normally a tough team to be confident in since they are lacking their starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, and have been borderline inept on offense since.

It's tough to have faith in a team that is usually in close games, but this week they get the Cleveland Shit Browns and will roll to a double digit victory. Fortunately for west coast fans this game will be on at 6:30 am and can be completely ignored.

You will not have any easier pick all year than when you pick the Minnesota Vikings as 16.5 point favorites this week home against the winless Buffalo Bills. I'll keep this part short and sweat. The Bills are very, very bad, and their best player, LeSean McCoy, has injured ribs. I will be surprised if they manage to score a touchdown against a tough Vikings defense.

Just in case you have already taken the Vikings, my next suggestion would be the New England Patriots, 6.5 point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Patriots rarely lose consecutive games and Bill Belichick relishes at the opportunity to crush former assistants. I am staying away from this one only because the Vikings have shown me more at this point of the season and are facing a rookie QB in Josh Allen rather than former pro bowler Matthew Stafford. I am planning on holding on to the Patriots until at least midway through the season when they really get rolling.

Cheers!

Drink Five!

Minnesota Vikings

What’s changed since last year? The core of the Vikings will remain the same this season, with just a few minor changes. Latavius Murray is gone, he’s on the Saints now. That leaves Dalvin Cook as the main running back, though rookie Alexander Mattison (3^rd round) is someone who could see a decent share of carries this season, but more on him and fellow rookie Irv Smith Jr. in a moment. The most important change for the Vikings this year will come if Dalvin Cook can stay healthy all year. He’s only played 14 games in his first two seasons and he needs to stay on the field to be worthy of his ADP 20 (RB11) current draft spot.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? There’s not much here as the main core of the Vikings is already well established, but you could keep an eye out for WR Chad Beebe, an UDFA from last year. He’s gotten a lot of hype during practice for making some big catches, but wasn’t heard from in the first preseason game. He also returns punts and holds for the kicker (during practice), so he’s at least making himself valuable for special teams. That being said, he’s not even listed on fantasypros’ ADP list, so no, there are not really any breakout candidates on the Vikings this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? The main fantasy names on the Vikings – Diggs, Thielen and Cook, are all being drafted in the first 4 rounds, so sleepers they are not. I do propose that Kirk Cousins is a sleeper with an ADP of 144 (QB19). Cousins has the talent to be a top 10 guy (the 2^nd highest paid QB this year) and you could essentially just draft him at the very end of a draft and get reasonable production from the QB slot while adding more depth to your other positions. You like that?

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There are potentially 3 fantasy studs on this team, but the one I like the most is Adam Thielen (ADP 26, WR11). Thielen had 142 targets in 2017 and 153 in 2018, showing that he has ridiculous volume coming to him, regardless of who’s at QB. His catch rate went from 64.1% in 2017 to 73.9% in 2018 and his TDs went from 4 to 9 over the same time period. He’s clearly got a good rapport with Cousins and I feel that if he and Cousins are healthy, a WR10 finish is basically his floor for this season.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? If you’re into streaming QBs, keep an eye out for Kirk Cousins, as his draft spot currently could leave him undrafted in some 10 team leagues. Alexander Mattison is also a guy who could wind up on the waiver wire early in the season. He’s a great handcuff for Dalvin Cook and might just be used in a 2 RB system anyways, similar to the rotation they had with Murray/Cook last year.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Two offensive rookies, Alexander Mattison (ADP 153, RB52) and Irv Smith Jr (ADP 240, TE281) are the guys to check out this year. Mattison was drafted in the third round and he’s not quite relevant at his draft value, however, he is likely to get a decent share of carries this year based on Dalvin Cook’s injury history. He’s certainly going to be involved in the offense and not just taken out of moth balls once Cook gets hurt. Irv Smith Jr was drafted in the 2^nd round and was a bit of a surprise, considering the Vikings have Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph did sign a big contract this year, but the team has an out in 2020 and just has to eat the rest of his signing bonus against their cap. Smith should be slowly introduced into the offense and will be relevant in dynasty drafts, but is unlikely to be involved in redraft leagues this season.

Chicago Bears

What’s changed since last year? The RB group in Chicago has had a shake-up – Jordan Howard was unceremoniously dumped on the Philadelphia Eagles for a sixth-round pick. The Bears then acquired Mike Davis, formerly of the Seahawks muddled backfield. Then, to cap it off, they drafted David Montgomery with their first available pick in the 2019 draft (third round). Montgomery showed some flash and we’ll get to him more in a bit. For now, it looks like the QB, WR and TE groups are the same as last year, while the RBs have received a decent upgrade.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Last year’s rookie WR, Anthony Miller, appeared in 15 games, had catches in 12 of those games, but scored a whopping 7 TDs. He saw the bulk of his work in the middle of the season – he only had 4 catches over his last 5 games. Miller is definitely a guy who can benefit from a larger number of targets and might wind up being fantasy relevant this year. He’s definitely trusted by Mitch Trubisky to get the ball into the end zone.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Anthony Miller is also the sleeper that has some good draft value. His current ADP of 141 (WR53) is far below his consensus ranking of 113 (WR45), so he can be drafted in the late rounds and has some great potential to make it to WR3 status this season. Allen Robinson also has a discrepancy between his ranking and ADP. His ADP is listed at 75 overall (WR31), but he’s ranked 61. If you can grab Allen Robinson in the 8^th round of your draft, that’s a good value for a #1 WR on a team that will likely want to throw the ball more than the 512 times they did last year. Other Bears like Montgomery (ADP 42, RB22), Tarik Cohen (ADP 69, RB31) and Trubisky (ADP 152, QB21) will be fantasy relevant, but are probably right about where they should be on the draft boards.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Bears will have an improved offense, but honestly, they don’t have any studs on this offense. I wouldn’t even recommend the DST as a “stud”, considering that they have a new coordinator this season and that last year’s league-leading 36 turnovers will be hard to replicate.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Taylor Gabriel (ADP 293) is not being drafted anywhere and will be available during the first few weeks of the season. He current is listed as a starting WR on the team’s depth chart, so if he has early success, he may be able to hold off Anthony Miller from overtaking him. I also think that Cordarrelle Patterson could wind up as a heck of a gadget player, but is probably only worth owning in leagues that give points for return yards.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? David Montgomery is the rookie to know on the Bears in 2019. The team traded up with the Patriots to acquire him, and he was widely regarded as the 2^nd best RB talent in the draft. In his first action (week 1’s preseason game vs the Panthers), he had 3 carries for 16 yards and 1 TD, 3 catches for 30 yards in very limited play. Montgomery’s draft stock will continue to rise as the preseason goes on and he’s shown more and more with the first team. Currently, his ADP of 42 matches his consensus rank of 48, (he’s risen 10 spots in each category since last week) but when you consider he’s just the RB22, I think that’s probably good value considering his upside. If he winds up with a similar rookie year as say, Kareem Hunt (whom scouts have compared Montgomery to, and was drafted around the same spot), he could have over 300 touches and finish as a top 5 RB.

Detroit Lions

What’s changed since last year? The Lions offense may not wind up looking a lot different in terms of results, but at least there’s several new names on the jerseys. Golden Tate was traded mid-way through last season and they signed Danny Amendola to take his place. They also got rid of 3^rd down back Theo Riddick, paving the way for Kerryon Johnson to be the guy, and possibly turn into a proper three down back. Finally, the Lions have changed their OC – Darrell Bevell is going to be calling plays this year. Known for his great running teams from Seattle, Bevell should provide a positive jolt to the offense. Of course, Bevell is also the guy who called a pass from the 1-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX .

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Third year WR Kenny Golladay (ADP 46, WR18), while technically not a breakout candidate (he had 70 receptions for 1063 yards last year and 5 TDs) could take another step forward and has a ceiling of being a top 10 guy. The third year with Matt Stafford will help him out, as well as having two other decent receivers to draw attention away from him.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I have two guys in mind for sleepers on the Lions, based on their current draft positions. Danny Amendola (ADP 306, WR104) is available at the end of the draft or as a waiver pickup. He will play in the slot for the Lions and will be trying to fill the Golden Tate role. Tate had over 90 receptions each year he was in Detroit (he was extrapolated to have over 90 in the year he was traded). In a PPR league, Amendola is someone who could easily wind up as a WR3 just based on volume alone. I also like the value of T.J. Hockenson (ADP 143, TE13), especially given the scarcity at TE. He’s a rookie, so we’ll get to him in a moment.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Gone are the days of Megatron in Detroit, and with him the last stud fantasy player that the Lions have had. There are no players I recommend drafting that are definitely going to become studs. Kerryon Johnson comes the closest, however I see his ceiling as maybe a top 15 guy at best.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? As I mentioned earlier, Danny Amendola will likely be available as a waiver pickup early in the season, but he’s likely to be snatched up quickly in PPR leagues, so if you like him, take him at the end of your draft instead. Another waiver possibility will be (the ageless?) C.J. Anderson. Anderson was nothing short of a fantasy stud in the last two games of 2018, filling in for Todd Gurley. 150 yards from scrimmage and a TD (each game) are hard to ignore, and probably got more than a few people a surprise championship to finish out 2018.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? With the 8^th overall pick in the 2019 draft, the Lions took tight end T.J. Hockenson from Iowa (now known as tight end U). Hockenson’s scouting report is glowing and he has a very high ceiling in the NFL. I do worry that the Lions have a history of drafting TEs high and not knowing what to do with them, but there’s a new regime in Detroit (new HC last year, new OC this year), so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that they’re getting this right. Hockenson is currently being drafted as the 13^th TE, but he could wind up as a top 5 guy easily, given the depth of the position.

Green Bay Packers

What’s changed since last year? The biggest change in Green Bay is the play caller. Out with Mike McCarthy and in with Matt LaFleur. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers was going to win that power struggle against McCarthy and I expect the Packers offense to be better this season. The Pack also parted ways with Randall Cobb, thus clearing the way for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be the #2 WR behind Davante Adams. Aaron Jones (ADP 28, RB15) is also, supposedly, going to be the lead back this season, not really splitting with Jamaal Williams. There is a new coach, but I’m not sold on this increased usage and think that he’s being drafted too high right now.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? The Packers have a WR core full of young guys just itching to break out. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ADP 112, WR44) leads the pack and is the most likely to reach the 1000 yard milestone this year. Equanimeous St. Brown (ADP 290, WR97) probably has the best measurables of the group, but is currently banged up and questionable for week 1. Geronimo Allison (ADP 118, WR 46) is in his 4^th season on the Packers and he is no secret in drafts. He had good numbers last year, but was only able to play 5 games. If we extrapolate his numbers, he winds up just shy of 1000 yards with 6 TDs. Filling out this group is Jake Kumerow (ADP 375, WR128) who has made some big plays during in preseason, but didn’t get a lot of playing time last year. Of these four guys, I think that Valdes-Scantling has the best chance to break out and be big deal in fantasy.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I would argue that Valdes-Scantling and Allison are not sleepers since they are being taken in almost all drafts. With them taken out of the picture, I would recommend Equanimeous St. Brown as a sleeper you can nab at the end of the draft. This offense is led by Aaron Rodgers which means they’re going to throw the ball nearly 600 times, and that’s a ton of targets available, allowing for several WRs to thrive.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? This one’s easy – Davante Adams (ADP 8, WR2). Last season, Adams finished as the 3^rd WR in PPR scoring. His worst game was 16.1 points – if he had scored his floor all season long, he would have still be the WR12 on the season. He’s a hell of a wide out and don’t hesitate to grab him, PPR or not. Aaron Rodgers (ADP 48, QB3) gets an honorable mention here, but I don’t endorse taking a QB that early in single QB leagues.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? I could see Jake Kumerow being a waiver pickup later in the year, especially if injuries crop up in the WR group. Kumerow is probably the odd man out to start the season, but will stay on the roster and will see more action as other players wind up having to sit at different points of the season. Jimmy Graham (ADP 165, TE19) is a guy with a big name who fell off the fantasy radar the last few seasons. He’s in a good spot for a comeback player of the year type season, but isn’t currently being drafted. As we keep saying, with the positional scarcity at TE, anyone is a viable option, really.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? New TE Jace Sternberger is the only skill player that the Packers drafted who has a chance at being fantasy relevant this season. Sternberger was a 3^rd round pick this year and is not currently listed in Fantasypros’ ADP list. He will need to pass Jimmy Graham on the depth chart, because the Packers are unlikely to run a lot of two tight end formations.