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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you were lucky enough that you get to take the week off, but if you made the playoffs and have to play this week, it’s hard to not put extra weight into every lineup decision you make. This year’s rookie crop has felt more volatile than most other classes, but that may just be because there are so many of them that have been fantasy contributors this year. We head into week 14 with 7 rookie QBs slated to start (if Daniel Jones is able to play). There are 3 rookie RBs among the top-20 in PPR points, 6 WRs in the top-43, and countless other skill players that have been useful as spot starters when injuries opened the door, and plenty more who are likely to do damage in the fantasy playoffs. Let’s dive in and talk about what to do with your rookies this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Giants have done a nice job of limiting RB production in recent weeks, but I’m betting on Sanders’ usage and the fact the Eagles are favored by 8 and a half points here. Sanders has seen 40 carries and 14 targets in the last 3 weeks and has averaged about 80 scrimmage yards per contest, and the Eagles lost all those games. I expect the Eagles to run a bit more this week if they play from ahead as expected. There is a chance that Jordan Howard returns this week, and if that happens Sanders gets a slight downgrade and would be closer to a borderline option. If Howard sits again, Miles should be a solid RB2.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Montgomery came through for fantasy players who trusted him enough to start him last week on Thanksgiving, and I like his chances to return value again this week. The Cowboys’ defense has been banged up, missing their starting nose tackle Antwaun Woods and their defensive leader in linebacker Leighton Vander Esch this week. Montgomery continues to see consistent usage with 15+ touches in 6 straight games. His production hasn’t always matched that usage, but Mitch Trubisky has been playing better of late and it is making the whole offense better. Dallas isn’t a defense to fear, ranking 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game. Montgomery should be a useful RB2 this week and is a reasonable $5,100 on DraftKings.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): You can’t sit a player with Jacobs’ locked-in usage. He’s averaging 88 yards per game on the ground and has only been held under 70 three times in 12 games. I’d be nervous to roll him out in DFS lineups this week though. The Raiders have gone in the tank as a team the last couple weeks, losing by a combined score of 74-12 in their past 2 games. It was a problem for Jacobs against the Jets, but he bounced back with a 100-yard day in a blowout loss against Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30^th in run defense DVOA. The Titans rank 4^th. If the Raiders continue the trend of getting blown out, this could be a disappointing fantasy day for Jacobs. Oakland is a 2 and a half-point underdog though, so if they keep it competitive Jacobs should see enough work to be just fine.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Murray had been playing at an improved level recently, but week 12 was a bit of a hiccup. He was able to salvage his day with a rushing score, but he gets a rough matchup again this week. The Steelers have been one of the best pass defenses in the league since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick. They’ve held 7 of the 10 QBs they’ve faced since the trade to fewer than 200 passing yards, and Murray has thrown for fewer than 250 in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s been able to keep his fantasy numbers up with touchdowns and rushing yards (he has 9 total TDs in his past 4 games and averaged 42 rushing yards per week in them), but I’d be hesitant to trust him in this matchup as a QB1. The Steelers rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. LAC): I learned my lesson with Minshew early in the season. If he’s starting, he’s in play as a QB2 even in tougher matchups. The Chargers allow the 7^th-fewest QB points per game and just got Derwin James back last week, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The Chargers have allowed at least 1 passing TD to every QB they’ve faced except Mitch Trubisky. The reason they rank so highly at limiting QB points is because they are also bad against the run and often are playing from behind. I wouldn’t expect Minshew to approach 300 yards, but he usually finds his way to the middle of the QB2 ranks.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): I’d lean towards playing Singletary this week, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens allow the 7^th-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs. With that said, the best way to attack the Ravens’ defense is with the ground game. Baltimore just allowed Raheem Mostert to run wild last Sunday, and they’ve struggled to contain the run game in other contests as well. Baltimore ranks just 25^th in run defense DVOA. It’s not an ideal matchup, but it isn’t one to run away from either if Singletary would usually be in your lineup. He’s the undisputed lead back for the Bills. He’s had at least 16 touches in each of the past 3 games and averaged 98 scrimmage yards and 13.5 PPR points per game in that stretch.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Mattison became a hot waiver wire commodity this week after Dalvin Cook left Monday night’s game with a shoulder injury. It sounds as though Dalvin is likely to play this week, but I would expect a lot of Mattison. The Vikings are favored by 2 touchdowns against the hapless Lions who allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game. The biggest surprise from Monday’s game was how involved Mattison was in the passing game. The rookie actually tied for the team lead with 4 catches and turned them into 51 yards. I’d expect Mattison to handle most of the work this week even if Cook plays, and I think it’s likely he out-produces Dalvin. I’d be willing to consider him as a flex even if Cook is able to go, and he’ll likely be a steal at his DraftKings price of just $4,500.

RB Benny Snell Jr., PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Cardinals have been a better run defense than pass defense this year, but the Steelers are likely to lean on the ground game as usual since Devlin Hodges will be making just his 3^rd pro start. Snell has totaled 37 carries in the last 2 weeks and is likely to continue to see a healthy workload in this one with the Steelers favored by 2 and a half on the road. There is a chance that James Conner returns this week, and if he does that will certainly cut into Snell’s opportunities, but Mike Tomlin openly said that Snell has earned the right to stay in the rotation even when Conner comes back. The Cards allow the 9^th-most running back points per game and rank 16^th in run defense DVOA. Snell offers little as a receiver. He has just 3 catches on the year, so he’s a much better option in non-PPR formats. If Conner is out, I’d consider him a solid flex option outside of full-PPR leagues, but he is a bit dicier in PPR.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 14: @LAR): Metcalf has become an integral part of the Seahawks passing attack as the year has gone on. He’s averaged 7.7 targets, 4.7 catches, and 61.5 yards per game in his last 6 games. The 61% catch rate in those games is a 9% improvement on what he did in the first 6 weeks of the season. He’s developed a troubling fumbling habit with 3 fumbles lost in the past 6 games, but overall the arrow is pointing up for DK. This week’s matchup could include Metcalf squaring off with Jalen Ramsey, but my guess is that he will cover Tyler Lockett a fair amount as well. The Rams are a middling pass defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest points per game to wide receivers. They’ve let other big physical receivers have success against them this year (Mike Evans, Auden Tate, Miles Boykin, and Metcalf himself in the first meeting with the Rams). DK is in play as a WR3 this week.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Slayton gets a plus matchup this week against the Eagles, who allow the 5^th-most WR points per game, but he also is likely to have a new QB under center and a more crowded pass catching group this week. Slayton didn’t record his first catch of the year until week 3, after the team had already made the switch to Daniel Jones. It remains to be seen if he’ll have the same connection with Eli. It’s also possible that Evan Engram and Golden Tate return this week. Slayton has had some productive games with Golden Tate in the lineup, but all 4 games where he saw more than 5 targets came with Evan Engram sidelined. If Engram and Tate both return, Slayton is a volatile WR3/flex option. If one or both sit, he becomes a much safer play.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 14: @NO): Samuel can’t be disregarded as a fantasy option after posting his 4^th straight game with 13+ PPR points last week in a less than ideal matchup in rainy Baltimore. He gets another difficult matchup this week in the Big Easy, but at least the weather won’t be an issue. It’s possible that Samuel draws the shadow coverage of Marshon Lattimore, the Saints’ best cover corner. New Orleans ranks an impressive 9^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game. The bigger concern for Deebo is his target share. With George Kittle back on the field, Samuel was targeted just 6 times in the past 2 weeks. I’d look for him to be a bit more involved this week, but he’s still just an upside WR3 option with all the 49ers’ main receiving weapons healthy.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Brown gets the unenviable opportunity to square off with TreDavious White’s shadow coverage this week. White has been a tough matchup for most of the receivers he’s faced, and the ones who have put up decent fantasy days against him have gotten there on volume rather than big plays. The Ravens are the run-heaviest team in the league, and the Bills rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. That’s where they’re likely to attack Buffalo. I don’t expect big volume for Brown, so you’re hoping he cashes in a big play or 2 if you start him. The Bills have allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and have given up just 3 pass plays of 40+ yards all year. Brown’s upside keeps him in consideration, but I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger this week.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): It appears that Evan Engram may return this week, but with the Giants playing to improve their draft position I wouldn’t expect them to push Engram back before he’s ready. If Engram doesn’t play, Smith should have plenty of opportunity again. He’s been targeted 14 times in the last 2 weeks and finished as the PPR TE4 and TE10 in those games. The Eagles aren’t an ideal matchup for tight ends, allowing the 9^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, but they did give up 52 yards to Ben Watson in week 11 and a 5-79-1 line to Mike Gesicki last Sunday. No matter who is at QB, the Giants will keep their tight end involved. Smith will probably be a lower end TE1 this week if Engram is held out again. If you’re thinking about playing Engram, you should have Smith as a fallback option just in case.

Rookies to Sit:

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): Blough surprised us all on Turkey Day by throwing 2 first quarter touchdowns in his first NFL start. After tallying 131 yards and those two scores on his first 6 passing attempts, he managed just 149 yards and a pick on his other 32 attempts. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat with your season on the line. The Vikings rank just a middling 14^th in pass defense DVOA, but Blough’s best shot at a decent fantasy day will come from piling up stats in garbage time. The Lions are a 13-point underdog in this game and have an implied total of just 15 points.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Lock’s NFL debut was remarkably similar to David Blough’s. He put up the majority of his production in the 1^st quarter, when he completed 9 of 13 passes for 73 yards and 2 scores. He completed just 9 of 15 for 61 yards and an interception the rest of the game. The game plan for Lock is clearly to dink and dunk as evidenced by his sub-5 yards per attempt average. Unlike Blough, Lock gets a favorable matchup this week. The Texans allow the 6^th-most QB points per game and rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. Lock could produce a nice day, but the conservative game plan will likely keep him from cashing in on a good matchup. I wouldn’t look at Lock as anything more than a desperation QB2 this week.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): There’s nothing to be excited about with Haskins this week, and likely for the rest of 2019. Through 4 starts, he’s averaging just 15 completions for 165 yards per game and has failed to throw a TD pass in 3 of them. The floor here is miserable, and we just haven’t seen any sort of ceiling yet, especially facing a Green Bay defense that allows the 9^th-fewest QB points per game.

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): I mention Jones here just to make sure you’re aware that it’s highly unlikely that he plays this week. If he does get the chance to start, the Eagles aren’t as enticing a matchup as they appeared to be last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick shredded them for 365 yards and 3 scores, but no other QB had reached 250 yards or 3+ touchdowns against the Eagles since Kirk Cousins in week 6. Jones has been a turnover machine this year with 11 interceptions thrown and 9 fumbles lost in his 10 starts. He’d be no more than a low end QB2 if he does end up starting.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): It was nice to finally see Thompson get his opportunity last week with the Williamses banged up, and he made good on it by putting up 44 yards and a TD on 11 carries, but I’m not sold that it was more than just a 1-week flash in the pan. Much of Thompson’s work came with the game already out of hand, and the team signed Spencer Ware this week to add depth to their backfield. Head coach Andy Reid is really comfortable with Ware, and LeSean McCoy still figures to be the lead back if Darrel and Damien are both out. On top of that, the Patriots allow fewer RB points per game than any other team in the league. It all adds up to Thompson being a bit overhyped this week. I’d let someone else take that risk on Darwin.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): After Kalen Ballage got hurt last week, it was the Patrick Laird show for Miami. Laird played 60% of the offensive snaps to Gaskin’s 22%. Laird is also clearly the guy the Dolphins prefer as a receiving back, out-targeting Gaskin 14 to 4 over the past 4 weeks. Gaskin is going to see more work going forward than he was seeing with Kalen Ballage healthy, but Laird is the Dolphin back to consider for fantasy purposes.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 14: @Chi.): Pollard has teased fantasy upside at times this season but has only turned in 2 useful weeks on the year. I wouldn’t be confident he makes it 3 this Thursday. He just doesn’t play enough to consider in any format this week with so many other options available. It doesn’t help his cause that he was also hit with a questionable tag this week. His status appears genuinely in doubt.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): The Detroit backfield has become the Bo Scarbrough show of late, and that has relegated Johnson to fantasy irrelevance. He continues to split 3^rd down work with JD McKissic, rendering both useless for fantasy purposes. There may be a little more work for the 3^rd down duo this week with the Lions a heavy underdog, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration for either.

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Henderson managed to get a handful of carries in last week’s blowout win, but I don’t expect him to see any work in what should be a closer game this week. Henderson totaled just 11 offensive snaps played in the 3 games prior to week 13.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Adam Thielen’s status seems to be uncertain once again this week, and Johnson continues to play a significant role in the offense with him out, but the Vikings have begun to lean even more heavily on 2-TE sets lately than usual. Both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith played 85% of the offensive snaps last Monday while Bisi played just 56%, his lowest share since week 6. He’s even begun to split some of the WR2 snaps with Laquon Treadwell. With Minnesota favored by 2 touchdowns this week, I’d expect similar personnel usage as the Vikings lean heavily on the run game. You could make an argument that Johnson is a sneaky upside DFS option. The Lions allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, Stefon Diggs is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, and Johnson’s price tag is just $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s seen similar situations several times in the last few weeks though and hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in any game this season. The last time the Vikings faced Detroit, Bisi put up 4-40-1 on 8 targets. It was his best fantasy game of the season, but without the TD it wouldn’t have been very useful.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): Haskins has torpedoed the value of any receivers that he throws to with his limited passing production. McLaurin’s 2 catches for 8 yards last week should be all you need to see to know you can’t trust him with your season on the line. Harmon has shown some value as a low upside PPR target with 11 catches for 147 yards over the last 3 weeks, but there are safer options out there for this all-important week.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 14: vs. KC): With the Patriots back at full strength at wide receiver last week, N’Keal Harry saw his snap share drop precipitously. Meyers still played 70% of the snaps and drew 7 targets against Houston, but I think it’s likely New England was easing Mohamed Sanu back from what was originally supposed to be a multi-week injury. I’d expect Sanu to play a bit more this week. If you want to roll the dice on Meyers’ usage continuing this week, keep in mind that the Chiefs rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. The only place I’d be considering Meyers this week would be in DFS tournaments, where he’ll cost just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): Mecole failed to see a single target in a matchup against one of the most burnable secondaries in the league last week. I’d look for the Chiefs to try and get him more involved this week, but I’m not confident he finds a way to fantasy relevance against a Patriots defense that has allowed just 2 offensive touchdowns in 5 games at Gillette Stadium. Hardman will need a touchdown to be fantasy relevant, and he’s not a great bet to find one.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Arcega-Whiteside did get into the end zone for the first time in his career on Sunday, but he saw his snap count cut in half with the returns of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. He split WR3 duties with Greg Ward and was targeted just twice. With fantasy seasons on the line, there’s no reason to read into that TD that his usage is going to increase. He’s caught just 5 passes all year and shouldn’t be on your radar this week.

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Isabella & Johnson continue to be afterthoughts in the Cardinals’ passing game. Isabella seemed to be breaking out with back-to-back strong games a few weeks ago, but he’s tallied just 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 targets over the last 2 weeks. Johnson didn’t play a single snap in the loss to the Rams. Both should be afterthoughts for you too as you consider fantasy options this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Like his teammate Olabisi, Irv’s best fantasy game of the year came in the Vikings’ first meeting with Detroit. He’s trended towards being a full-time player over the last few weeks, seeing his snap share climb from 61% to 74% to 81% to 85% over the last 4 games. He’s been targeted at least 3 times in 6 straight contests, but I can’t recommend him with your season on the line. As long as he’s splitting the role with Rudolph, he’s shaky as anything more than a TE2 for a season long league, and just hasn’t shown the ceiling to warrant using him in a DFS tournament this week with bigger upside options at similar prices out there like OJ Howard, Kaden Smith, and Jonnu Smith.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Knox is seeing the most extensive playing time he’s seen all year lately. He’s played more than 70% of the offensive snaps in 3 straight games after only hitting that mark once prior to week 11, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production and the Ravens have been wiping out tight ends. Baltimore has allowed the 4^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, and since week 4 they haven’t allowed any tight end to reach 35 yards against them and have given up just 1 touchdown to the position. I wouldn’t hate Knox as an option in a league that requires you to start 2 tight ends, but I would look for better options if considering him as a TE1.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Fant had shown flashes of consistent production with Brandon Allen under center and Jeff Heuerman sidelined, but Heuerman’s return and the change to Drew Lock have made Fant a less than exciting option. Fant did drop a touchdown last week, but it was one of just 3 targets he saw from rookie Drew Lock. Heuerman, meanwhile, drew 5 targets despite playing 13 fewer snaps than Fant. Noah is still the better fantasy option of the two in Denver, but this week’s opponent hasn’t been particularly giving to tight ends. They’re in the top half of the league at limiting tight end points and have given up just 3 tight end scores all year. With other options emerging like Mike Gesicki, Jack Doyle, and Jacob Hollister, I wouldn’t be inclined to take a chance on Fant this week.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): With Hunter Renfrow out last week, Moreau didn’t really see a big bump in playing time. He still played his usual amount, about half the offensive snaps, but Keelan Doss got on the field for 55% of the offensive snaps after not playing since week 7. Neither of them will be useful fantasy options as long as Darren Waller is commanding 30% of the targets like he did last week. If you play Moreau it’s with a hope & a prayer that he finds the end zone. The Titans have given up 6 tight end scores in 12 games this year.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Steelers have certainly called a conservative game plan with Hodges under center. He’s averaged just 20.5 passing attempts and 172 passing yards per start in the 2 games he’s gotten the nod, but he’s shown a willingness to take shots down field as evidenced by his 4 completions to James Washington of 30 or more yards in the last 2 weeks. He’s averaging a healthy 8.7 yards per attempt on the year. This week he takes on a Cardinals’ defense that is hemorrhaging QB points at a rate rarely seen. For the season they’ve given up a full 3 points more per game to opposing QBs than any other team in the league, and in the last 5 weeks they’ve given up an insane average of 379 passing yards per game. They’ve also given up 14 passing scores in those games and given up 26.3 fantasy points per game to QBs. Hodges is a little pricier in DFS than I would’ve expected given his limited production so far ($5,900 on DraftKings), but this is a great week to consider him as a lower priced cash-game option and a sneaky QB2 in leagues that let you start 2. Don’t count on him to approach 380 yards, but he should be in line for the best passing day of his young career.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): With Kalen Ballage going on IR, the backfield in Miami is left to Laird and Myles Gaskin. As mentioned under Gaskin above, Laird is the guy who saw the bulk of the playing time after Ballage went down. The Jets have been a solid run defense this year, ranking 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but they have allowed an opposing back to tally 4 or more receptions in 10 of their 12 games this year. Laird hasn’t been much more efficient that Ballage was as a runner, but he has topped 40 receiving yards in 2 of the last 3 games. He’s worth consideration in deep PPR leagues if you’re struggling for a running back this week.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 14: @Oak.): The Raiders have been one of the most burnable pass defenses downfield in the league, giving up 56 passes of 20+ yards, 24 of them going for 30+. The Titans have completed 14 passes this season of 30+ yards, and 6 of them have been to AJ Brown. Khalif Raymond and Jonnu Smith each caught 2, and no other Titan caught more than 1. Brown has been getting more consistent usage since the Titans made the switch to Tannehill at QB. He averaged 3.8 targets per game in Mariota’s starts, and 5.2 per game in Tannehill’s. Brown still doesn’t have a safe floor, but this looks like a spot where a smash game is possible. He’s a nice DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deep leagues.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 14: @TB): Campbell got in a full practice on Wednesday and looks on track to return this weekend in Tampa. TY Hilton said this week that he may be done for the year, and Campbell has been heavily involved whenever he’s been on the field and Hilton hasn’t. In the two games Campbell played with Hilton sidelined, he’s totaled 13 targets and 3 rushing attempts. And turned them into 10 catches and 105 scrimmage yards. The efficiency isn’t ideal, but the Buccaneers allow a full 5 more PPR points to wide receivers per game than any other team in the league. Campbell is practically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings) and could be walking into a big role against easily the worst defense in the league against the position. If you can stomach playing a guy fresh off missing a month with an injury in your fantasy playoffs, Parris could be a really nice option in deep PPR leagues.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Johnson has been disappointing in recent weeks, coming up short of 30 receiving yards in 4 of his past 5 games. Granted, he did leave a game in the middle of that stretch concussed and bleeding from his ears, but those numbers aren’t going to help fantasy owners. This is as good a spot for him to get back on track as he’s had in a while. The Cardinals have been handing out receiving yards lately like they’re candy on Halloween. The Steelers still aren’t a high volume passing attack, and Johnson is likely to be the 3^rd-best fantasy option in this passing game this week behind James Washington and Vance McDonald, but he costs just $4,300 in DraftKings and has tied Washington for the team lead in targets over the last two weeks. I’m not sure where I would use Johnson this week, but I think this is a nice bounce-back opportunity for him. There is still a chance that JuJu Smith-Schuster could return this week, which would make everything written above irrelevant.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Championship week is upon us. There are several rookies who have helped us get here along the way, but few that are easy to trust this week whether due to injury or tough matchups. This week is slated to have 8 rookie QBs under center, but unless you are in a 2QB league you probably won’t be starting any of them in your championships. The rookies that matter this week are the top tier running backs and the handful of receivers that have shown to be useful weekly options. I’ll still talk a bit about the QBs and a few deeper league guys that could help in DFS this week, but I know who you’re here to see. A lot of the rookie RBs and WRs are listed as borderline options. Keep in mind that all the guys at the same position and same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s look at which rookies could help carry you across the finish line…

Rookies to Start:

RB Alexander Mattison, Min (Wk. 16: vs. GB): I’m listing Mattison here to emphasize just how much I like him if he’s somehow able to play. He still wasn’t practicing Friday, and the Vikings don’t play until Monday night. There is a real chance that you don’t have much clarity on his status until Monday. The Packers have struggled to defend opposing backs all year, coughing up the 8^th-most PPR points to the position and ranking 25^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Dalvin Cook torched them for 191 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, and Green Bay has allowed a double-digit scorer at the position in half PPR scoring in 13 of their last 14 games. Damien Williams ended up with 9 in the other one. Mattison was considered a high value handcuff all year. This is the reason why. There has been a lot of hype this week for Mike Boone on fantasy twitter, and it’s warranted if Mattison isn’t able to play, but if Mattison does play he could win you your league. If you have other quality options that play Saturday or Sunday, I’d certainly consider starting them rather than waiting on Mattison, but if your other options are guys like Tevin Coleman or Carlos Hyde or other low-upside RB3 types, I’d move Mattison to a flex spot, pick up a Packers’ receiver as a fallback and hope he plays (assuming you weren’t able to get Boone as your fallback). Jake Kumerow should be available in most leagues. If Mattison does play, I like his chances to be a top-15 finisher at the position this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): It feels like Murray is close to turning a corner as a passer in his young career. After an up and down first half of the season, he’s posted a passer rating of 98 or better in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s also posted 12 total touchdowns in that span (10 passing, 2 rushing). The Seahawks are a slightly above average pass defense, ranking 12^th in pass defense DVOA, but this could turn into a shootout. Along with Tampa-Houston, this game is tied for the highest Vegas total of the week. Murray is a bit volatile for my tastes if I’m starting him as my QB1, but he should be a strong QB2 option this week and an interesting DFS play at a reasonable $6,100 on DraftKings.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Atlanta has been playing improved football over the past several weeks, and to be honest I’m not quite sure how they’ve pulled it off. They’re missing their top corner Dez Trufant and have their number 2 and 3 guys battling injuries as well, and this week sent leading pass rusher Takk McKinley to IR, yet they’ve managed to go 4-2 since their bye week and have held Kyle Allen, Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo to an average of just 207 passing yards in their last 3 games. I’m not sure that Minshew is the guy to break that trend. He hasn’t had quite the same magic since being re-inserted into the starting role, but he showed flashes of getting it back last week in a comeback win against Oakland. If he’s able to carry over the way he played late in that game, he should have a great chance to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week. Despite their recent improved play, the Falcons still allow the 5^th-most QB points per game for the year.

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Jones has been cleared to return this week, and he gets to face a Washington defense that can be burned by mediocre QBs. The list of QBs that have tallied 3 total touchdowns or more against Washington this year includes Mitch Trubisky, Kyle Allen, and Sam Darnold, but Jones’ Achilles heel has been turnovers and it’s one that Washington can exploit. Washington’s overall numbers aren’t terrible. They rank a middling 18^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 14^th-most QB points per game. Jones has turned the ball over 20 times in his 10 starts this year, and Washington has forced 8 QB turnovers in their last 5. There is a bit of a ceiling to chase this week with Jones, but coming off a high ankle sprain I wouldn’t expect him to augment his score much with his legs. I’d view him more as an upside QB2 than anything else this week.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): Over the last 4 weeks, Sanders has averaged almost 16 carries and just over 5 targets per game. He doesn’t always make the most of his opportunities, but he’s playing well enough to be a fantasy asset when his usage looks like that. The Eagles are going to be without Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor again, so his passing game work should be secure. The key for how big a ceiling he has will come down to how efficient he is with his rushing attempts. We’ve seen him not always show the best vision and ability to get what’s blocked. He’ll have to do a better job of that here if the Eagles hope to win. Even if he doesn’t, Sanders should be on the cusp of the RB2 range. He has a top-10 ceiling and should probably be in your lineup this week unless you have a stud to play ahead of him.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Singletary has been one of the brightest spots of the entire rookie class this year, but he gets a tough draw for championship week. He’s been held below 79 scrimmage yards just once since week 9 but must go to Foxboro to battle the Patriots’ league-best defense this week. New England has hung their hat on not letting running backs into the end zone. They’ve given up just two running back scores all year. Singletary hasn’t been putting up his points on touchdowns, so there is still a chance for him to post a nice day. If you’ve been starting him all year and have been happy with his output, you should strongly consider playing him again this week. This is unlikely to be a ceiling week for him, so he’s more of a contrarian DFS play, but the Pats have given up 90+ scrimmage yards to 6 different running backs this year. It’s probably close to a 50/50 bet that Singletary makes it 7 this week.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. KC): David Montgomery with good on-paper matchups might be one of the most frustrating things in fantasy football this year. Even when he gets good usage and runs well, the final stat line ends up being unsatisfying. Will this week continue that trend? Kansas City allows the 3^rd-most running back PPR points per game. They’re bad against the run, ranking 30^th in run defense DVOA, and they’re bad at limiting backs as receivers, coughing up the 2^nd-most RB receiving yards per game. Monty is unlikely to take advantage of their struggles to stop pass catching backs. Even as Montgomery has rattled off a stretch of 8 consecutive games with at least 15 touches, he’s been out-targeted by Tarik Cohen 47-19. It’ll likely take a touchdown for you to be happy with Monty’s output. He’s had red zone usage with 7 carries inside the 20 in the last 5 games, but none of them have ended in 6 points. Montgomery is best viewed as a high floor, low ceiling RB3.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. NO): AJ has been a revelation since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. He’s put up the bulk of his fantasy points with Tannehill in 3 blowup games against bad defenses, but he’s still averaged 77.5 yards per game across all of Tannehill’s 8 starts. The Saints rank a respectable 10^th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers. The Saints haven’t proven to be a matchup to run away from, and I don’t see how you sit a player that has put up 23.5 PPR points or more 3 times in his last 4 games. I can live with starting Brown this week and him flopping much more easily that I’d be able to live with benching him if he blows up again.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Ari.): Metcalf has been remarkably steady from a fantasy perspective in the 2^nd half of the season. He’s topped at least 11 PPR points in 6 of his last 7 games and had at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of the last 6. He hasn’t really shown the kind of ceiling that we’d hope for in recent weeks, but this may be a week where he’s able to do that. Only Detroit and Oakland allow more completions for 20+ yards than the Cardinals do. Metcalf fell flat in the first meeting between these teams with just 1 catch for 6 yards, but he’s become a much bigger cog in the offense since then. With Seattle favored by 9 and a half points, there is a chance this gets out of hand early and Metcalf winds up with a poor day, but I think it’s more likely that Metcalf comes up with a deep catch or two before things are settled.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): McLaurin made it two weeks in a row with a touchdown last Sunday and posted his best yardage day of the season, and this week he faces a New York defense that has given up the 6^th-most WR PPR points per game. They also rank an abysmal 30^th in pass defense DVOA. McLaurin seems to have re-established his connection with his college QB, but Washington’s run-first attack and inconsistent QB play always lurk as threats to Scary Terry’s opportunities. The passing game should still run through McLaurin, especially the high value deep targets, but just know that his chances to bust are a little higher than your average WR2 option.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Slayton managed to salvage his fantasy day with a touchdown Sunday, but the low volume might have been alarming for those of you who started Slayton last week. The Giants were playing the Dolphins and won easily. It isn’t something that happens often for them and they were able to lean on the run game late. This game should be a bit more competitive. Prior to last week, Slayton had been targeted 38 times in the previous 4 weeks.  Some of that came with other receivers sidelined, so don’t expect Slayton to be targeted 10+ times this week, but he should be more involved than he was last Sunday. Washington isn’t a terrible pass defense. They rank 18^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13^th-fewest WR PPR points per game, but Slayton has proven to be a threat to find the end zone in every game, and he’s scored multiple TDs 3 times this year. He’s got the kind of upside you don’t want to leave on your bench if you’re between him and a lower ceiling option.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Week 15 didn’t go according to plan for Deebo. He was held to single-digit PPR points for the first time since week 9 in what looked like a plus matchup on paper. This week’s matchup looks a little less inviting. That could change if it turns out Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Emmanuel Sanders. The Rams have deployed Ramsey in shadow coverage in spots this year, but with San Francisco being a run 1^st offense with a tight end as their leading receiver, I’d be surprised if Ramsey is deployed that way in this one. That means both receivers will see a bit of him. Samuel is still in play as an upside WR3 this week. He’s shown the ability to post solid fantasy games with limited opportunity. He may have to do so again this week.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Brown has been a volatile weekly option for fantasy lineups, and I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on starting him this week with the title at stake. The Browns gave up three 100-yard days to wide receivers in the first 3 weeks of the season and have allowed just one since. Brown was held mostly in check in the first meeting between these two teams with 4 catches for 22 yards on 7 targets. In the past 5 weeks Brown has had PPR scores of 21.2 and 14.5 points…and failed to reach 5 points in any of the other 3 games. The highs are fun, but the lows are low for Hollywood. This doesn’t look like a smash spot for him, so I would suggest thinking long and hard about it before putting him into your championship lineups.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Fant has played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games, but he also topped 50 receiving yards in each, a mark he reached just twice all year before week 14. The Lions have been better against tight ends this year than their recent history, but still allow the 15^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t look for Fant to post a blowup game this week, but he’s been utilized enough by Lock that he’s in play as a low-end TE1 for a consolation game. I wouldn’t be excited about him in a championship.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): There is an outside shot that Hodges puts up a better game than expected this week since the Jets are strong against the run and may force Pittsburgh to throw more than they typically would, but we’ve seen Hodges fail to cash in against bad pass defenses a couple times now. The Cardinals are the worst QB defense in the league; The Bengals are bottom-10; The Browns are bottom-half, and Hodges didn’t reach 15 fantasy points against any of them. Sure, the Bengals’ game is tough to count since he didn’t start and instead replaced an ineffective Mason Rudolph, but I still wouldn’t want to bet on this week being the first time Hodges posts a big day.

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 16: @Den.): Since throwing his second 1^st-quarter touchdown against the Bears on Thanksgiving, Blough has posted just 5.16 yards per attempt and thrown just 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions across almost 3 full games. This week he faces a Denver defense that allows the 9^th-fewest QB points per game. A low upside option in a bad matchup is not a recipe for fantasy success.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Last week was a fun one to have Pollard in best ball leagues as Dallas unexpectedly trounced the Rams and Pollard piled up points in garbage time. Don’t treat that as a reason to start him this week. The Cowboys are unlikely to put that kind of beating on Philly, and the Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest RB points per game. Sure, there is a chance that the Cowboys decide to give Pollard a bit more work this week after his impressive performance, but chasing last week’s unexpected points is a recipe for disaster.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): It’s been nice seeing Thompson get a chance to get on the field and produce some fantasy points these past few weeks. He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s flashed some of the talent that made people excited about him this preseason. Still, he was only playing about a third of the offensive snaps each of the past 3 weeks with Damien Williams out, splitting time with LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware. Williams is going to return this week and push him back to the bench or at least into a smaller role. I’m out on Darwin this week.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Just listing Jacobs in case you missed the news that he’s taking the week off to rest his ailing shoulder. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard will work in his place.

RBs Benny Snell & Kerrith Whyte, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): With James Conner back on the field last week, Snell & Whyte combined to play just 8 offensive snaps. The Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA and Snell still costs nearly $5,000 on DraftKings. Steer well clear of this duo.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Harry appears to have pushed Meyers and Phillip Dorsett to the bench for now, playing 38 snaps last week while the other 2 combined for 19, but we’ve seen New England switch things up before. This isn’t a great matchup to play any New England wide receivers, even Julian Edelman who is clearly playing at less than 100% and just put up a 9-yard game last week. The Bills allow the 4^th-fewest PPR points to the position and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard receiver all year and only 8 receivers to reach 10 fantasy points in half-PPR. This isn’t the week to try Harry or Meyers in DFS or regular lineups.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 16: @Chi.): You know the drill with Mecole by now. With the full complement of Kansas City receivers healthy, Hardman just isn’t playing a whole lot. He’s made some exciting splash plays in those limited snaps and gotten in the end zone a few times, but that’s what you’re banking on if you use Hardman in any format, and the Bears have allowed just 7 offensive plays of 40+ yards all year against them. Mecole isn’t even the most likely guy on his own team to cash in on a big play as long as Tyreek Hill is around.

WRs Kelvin Harmon & Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Both of these players have made some positive plays this year, but the passing volume just isn’t robust enough to consider anyone but McLaurin for fantasy lineups right now. The matchup this week is conducive to throwing the ball, but we’ve seen Haskins throw 30+ times just once in 6 starts, and the highest value targets are going to McLaurin. If I were scrounging for a deep DFS sleeper for tournaments I’d prefer Sims to Harmon as he’s been targeted 18 times in the last 2 weeks, but both have low ceilings unless they’re getting in the end zone.

WRs Hunter Renfrow & Keelan Doss, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Renfrow is on track to return this week, but the injury that sidelined him was cracked ribs and a punctured lung suffered just a few weeks ago. I’d be surprised if the Raiders throw him back into a full-time role in his first game back no matter how good they claim he looks in practice. He was just a low-upside PPR WR4 most weeks before suffering the injury. His return will also render Doss unplayable. It was Doss who had picked up the extra snaps at WR in his absence. I’d stay away from both this week as the Chargers allow the 3^rd-fewest WR PPR points per game.

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): With Adam Thielen back in the lineup, Bisi was limited to 26 offensive snaps and one passing game target. He’ll be irrelevant for fantasy purposes with both Diggs and Thielen on the field. No team plays fewer 3-wide sets than Minnesota.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Although he found the end zone last Sunday and this week faces a defense allowing the 9^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, Smith is at best a touchdown dart throw this week. He’s playing plenty of snaps, but this just remains such a low volume passing attack that he isn’t getting enough opportunity to break through to fantasy relevance when he doesn’t find the end zone. It doesn’t help Smith that the team’s number 3 tight end Tyler Conklin has been playing 40+ percent of the snaps in each of the last 2 weeks as well. Irv’s cheap in DFS, but there are higher-upside tight ends to chase.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Knox has been an afterthought in the Bills’ offense for the last month, and I don’t see this as the week where that changes. In his last 4 games, the rookie has pulled in a total of 7 passes for 76 yards on 11 targets, and New England allows the 7^th-fewest TE PPR points per game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Lock has acquitted himself pretty well since taking over as the starting QB in Denver. He struggled last week in snowy conditions in Kansas City, but he performed well against the Chargers in his debut and shredded a mediocre pass defense in Houston two weeks ago. This week he gets to face the best matchup he’s gotten so far. Detroit has allowed 5 of the last 9 teams they’ve played to throw for *at least* 320 yards and 3 touchdowns. I’m not suggesting that Lock will put up those kinds of numbers. The Broncos are a touchdown favorite and will likely lean on the run game if they get out in front, but something in the range of 15-20 fantasy points wouldn’t be surprising for Lock. He’s a sneaky QB2 this week and an intriguing cheap DFS option.

QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 16: @Ind.): The Will Grier era in Carolina is upon us, at least for the next two weeks. Grier was known as a gunslinger in college. He was willing to push the ball down the field and had great results at West Virginia. He averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and threw 37 touchdowns as a senior. He had a shaky preseason where he connected on just 1 of 11 deep passes and ultimately lost the backup job to Kyle Allen, but he’s behind Allen no more. As Carolina has fallen out of the playoff picture with 6 consecutive losses, they’ve finally decided to give Grier a shot. Grier’s debut comes in a pretty good matchup for him. The Colts allow the 10^th-most QB points per game and have given up the 5^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. They don’t give up a lot of deep balls, but this still feels like a game where Grier may connect downfield with Curtis Samuel a couple times. Grier costs barely more than the QB minimum on DraftKings, and Indy has coughed up 762 passing yards and 8 touchdown tosses in the last two weeks. There are worse options out there if you want to take a crazy swing in a DFS tournament.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Haskins had his best yardage game as a pro last weekend and gets a favorable matchup this weekend as well. The Giants allow the 8^th-most QB points per game and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. The Giants are much better against the run, ranking 8^th in run defense DVOA, so the burden to make plays will likely fall on Haskins. It remains to be seen which team will be more motivated to win this game. The winning team will get rivalry bragging rights, but the losing team will likely get to draft Chase Young. I don’t know that I expect Haskins to do enough to be trusted in lineups, but 200+ yards and 2 scores isn’t out of the question this week, and he’s only hit those marks twice in 6 starts.

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a defense to target with your running backs all year, and that will hold true even in this toilet bowl of a matchup. The question of which running back to target them with this week got a little more muddled with Gaskin playing the same number of offensive snaps as Laird in week 15, but I think both have a chance to return nice value. Cincinnati ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and coughs up the 6^th-most RB PPR points per game. Neither player would be trustworthy in your league championship, but in deep leagues and DFS tournaments both are worth looking at. I’d still prefer Laird over Gaskin. He got the start and played most of the first two drives on Sunday, but Gaskin will be involved moving forward as well. Even as the playing time evened up, Laird still handled 3 more carries and 2 more targets than Gaskin.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Johnson becomes much harder to trust if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns this week, but he’s carved out a nice role for himself with JuJu sidelined and Duck Hodges under center. Diontae has been targeted 15 times in the last 2 weeks and turned in 11-122-1 with at least 60 yards in each game. The Jets have proven to be a strong run defense and bad pass defense, which plays into Johnson’s hands a bit. They allow the 10^th-most WR PPR points per game despite playing a pretty easy WR schedule. The only top-14 WRs (in total PPR points) they’ve faced all year are Julian Edelman and Amari Cooper, and Cooper got hurt very early on in their meeting. Disregard Johnson if JuJu suits up, but if not, he’s got interesting upside for deep leagues.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): I know, talking about using JJ in any format feels like a joke at this point, and a bad one if you have him in any dynasty leagues. I don’t know if there is such a thing as a contrarian flyer in DFS, but that’s what I would call JJ this week. He costs just $3,500 in DraftKings and he’s been playing more than 90% of Philly’s offensive snaps with Alshon and Agholor out. He only has 6 targets and 2 catches to show for it in the last two weeks, but he also has 4 red zone targets in the last 5 games. It’s almost purely a gut call, but I have a feeling that Arcega-Whiteside cashes in his opportunities this week and posts a surprising 2 touchdown game. The Cowboys rank just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith became a bit of a forgotten man in the past 2 weeks as Eli Manning filled in at quarterback. That could change this week with Daniel Jones back at the helm. With Jones under center Smith was targeted 14 times in weeks 12 & 13, tallying 11-87-1. With Eli in he was targeted just 8 times in the last 2 games and ended up with just 5 catches for 47 yards. There is some threat that Rhett Ellison returns this week, but Smith seemed to have a connection with Jones, and Washington allows the 5^th-most TE PPR points per game. It would be a big leap of faith to use Smith in the fantasy championship with Ellison looming, but I could see my way to using him in DFS lineups.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most folks, the fantasy season ended last week, but I know there are leagues out there that still hold their title games in week 17. Week 17 is a tough one to navigate for fantasy lineups. There are typically only a handful teams with anything to gain by winning. The keys to success are to identify those teams and identify the stud players who play for teams that have nothing to gain. If you can avoid those landmines you’ll have a much better shot of winning. I count 12 teams that potentially could improve their playoff position, and only half of those don’t need any help from other teams to do so. I’ll give you a quick rundown of which rookies have something to play for in case you have a championship this week, but most of the advice this week will have a decidedly DFS slant.  Let’s dive in…

Rookies to Start:

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Eagles are expecting Jordan Howard to return this week, but Sanders is likely to continue as the lead back. As the Eagles’ pass catching corps has become the walking wounded, Sanders has seen his receiving usage increase. In the past 4 weeks, he’s had at least 4 catches and 5 targets in each game, and he’s found the end zone through the air in 2 of them. Even if Howard manages to siphon off a decent chunk of Sanders’ rushing attempts, the passing game usage will keep Miles as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. The Giants surprisingly rank 8^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Sanders is no worse than 3^rd in the Eagles’ current pass game pecking order. You’re banking on the upside if you use him in DFS lineups (I like him better for cash games than tournaments), but he should be fired up in season-long leagues.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou.): Brown’s lack of usage last week was a little alarming, but he still managed to put up 15.3 PPR points despite just one catch and one carry. He absolutely torched the Texans the last time he faced them (8-114-1 on 13 targets), and this week the Texans might not have anything to gain by winning. The Titans have everything to gain. A victory clinches them a spot in the playoffs. Brown should be heavily involved and can’t be left on your bench in season long leagues. The Texans rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be as keen to pay the $7,000 DraftKings price tag, but he should be a fine WR2 this week.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. SF): Metcalf managed to post a goose egg on just 1 target last week despite playing 98% of the offensive snaps in a game where Seattle threw 31 times. Don’t expect a repeat this week. Prior to week 16, DK had managed to post 11+ PPR points in 6 of the previous 7 games, and I like his odds to get back on track this week. Since the start of week 9, the 49ers have allowed 22.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (only the Dolphins and Cardinals have allowed more than that per game on the year), and they’ve given up 15+ points in half PPR scoring to 4 wide receivers in the past 5 weeks (they allowed just 3 to reach 15 before that). Their elite defense has shown cracks, and I think Metcalf exploits them this weekend. He posted 6 catches for 70 yards on 10 targets in the first meeting with San Francisco, and he should be a solid WR3 in the rematch. Metcalf is a sneaky option in DFS showdown slates for the Sunday night game.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): This will be a must win game for the Eagles, but their pass defense has been an issue for much of the year. Philly has coughed up multiple passing scores in 3 of their last 4 games, and Jones flourished in his return to the lineup last Sunday as the overall QB1 for the week. Jones has thrown for multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and 4+ in three of his last 6. Jones has been a solid starting option when his weapons are healthy and he has a real chance to be a QB1 again this week, although repeating as the QB1 seems highly unlikely.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders still have a shot at the playoffs with a win and a lot of help this weekend, but the Broncos have some positive momentum of their own and aren’t likely to roll over for Oakland. The Raiders have been abysmal defending the pass, allowing the 4^th-most QB points per game and allowing the 2^nd-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. Lock has played well through 4 starts outside of one poor performance against the Chiefs, and he is in a great spot for a strong game to close his rookie year. Lamar Jackson won’t play this week, and several other fantasy QBs like Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins will be unplayable due to the chance they won’t play for long. Lock will be a high-end QB2 option with the upside for more and is reasonably priced on DraftKings at $5,800.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Leonard Fournette has been downgraded to doubtful for this week, and Armstead has been his handcuff all year. The Colts rank 21^st in run defense DVOA and Jacksonville is one of the few teams that doesn’t employ a committee. It’s a rare occurrence that you can get a locked-in starting running back for $4,400 on DraftKings. Armstead has shown an ability to catch the ball, so he won’t be limited to just rushing output. The Jaguars have been bad as a team of late, but Armstead has plenty of appeal in DFS lineups at that price tag.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): With the Ravens locked into the AFC’s top seed, they have nothing to gain with a win in week 17. Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram will be sitting out entirely, and I would expect several other starters to not play the full game. The Steelers will be without James Conner again, so Snell will be thrust back into the early down grinder role once more. Baltimore has been stingy against the pass but ranks a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA. Snell’s lack of pass catching prowess hurts his fantasy upside, but he should be viewed as a reasonable RB3/flex play this week. He also costs just $4,500 on DraftKings.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Slayton was targeted just 3 times in week 15 against the Dolphins, then was sidelined by injury last week before recording his first catch in a game where Daniel Jones threw 5 touchdown passes. Slayton is on track to return this week and the Giants don’t really have reason to hold him back as they try to play spoiler to the Eagles. Philly has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and Slayton may be the squeaky wheel that gets the grease this week. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure that he plays and that he won’t be limited by the knee injury, but Slayton remains in play as a WR3 option this week. His price tag of $4,900 on DraftKings is really tempting in both cash games and DFS tournaments.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 17: @Sea.): The 49ers will be pulling out all of the stops to try and win this game. A victory means a week off, and a loss means a trip to Dallas or Philadelphia next weekend. The Seahawks are better attacked on the ground than through the air, ranking 26^th in run defense DVOA and 14^th in pass defense DVOA. Samuel has been productive with 6 games of 12 or more PPR points in his last 7, but his volume has been inconsistent. He’s averaged just 4.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks. He’s managed to be productive with sporadic rushing attempts (7-89-1 in the past 4 weeks), but he’ll have to continue making good on limited opportunities to have a big day this week. He’s in play as a borderline WR3 option.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Johnson has managed to produce despite the game of musical quarterbacks being played between Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, He’s put up at least 60 yards and been targeted 7+ times in each of the last 3 games, and the Ravens are likely to play their starters less than a full complement of snaps. Even JuJu’s return hasn’t slowed Johnson down. He’ll have Hodges throwing him the ball this week, but that shouldn’t keep him from posting a 4-60 type of line in this one, and possibly more.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders allow the 8^th-most TE points per game. Fant’s snap count has dropped quite a bit with Jeff Heuerman back at full strength, but Fant has been the one getting the more useful fantasy targets. He’s still risky for regular lineups, but he’s an interesting in DFS lineups at just $3,600 on DraftKings and in a plus matchup.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 17: @LAR): It’s looking more and more likely that Murray is going to be sidelined this week with a hamstring injury and it will be Brett Hundley getting the nod instead. Even if Murray plays, the first meeting with the Rams was one of his worst games of the season and they rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Only a late rushing TD got him to double-digit fantasy points in that first meeting. Hundley wouldn’t be a great option this week either.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Minshew has had a number of plus matchups since getting back under center, but he’s failed to produce meaningful fantasy games. In the last 4 weeks he’s averaged 173 yards passing and 15.5 rushing yards per game and totaled just 5 touchdowns. The Jags are basically phoning it in to close out the year, and you can’t bank on them getting out of that funk in the season’s final week. This game is likely to feature a lot of Ryquell Armstead and Marlon Mack.

QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Grier’s first NFL start was an unmitigated disaster against a below average pass defense. The offense managed to score just 6 points as Grier threw 3 interceptions and took 5 sacks. More than 50% of his passing yards went to Christian McCaffrey and he’s not going to have DJ Moore on the field this week. The Saints rank 13^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s all shaping up to be another rough week for Grier.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Don’t get cute with Hodges. In his last 2 appearances he’s thrown 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions. The Ravens’ secondary might not be playing at full strength, but that’s not a reason to get crazy and consider Hodges in any format.

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): It’s likely you weren’t considering Blough in any format, and that is the correct approach. Blough has thrown just 2 touchdowns in the last 3 and a half games, and Green Bay ranks 11^th in pass defense DVOA. There is no reason to consider Blough in week 17. It may wind up as his final career start.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): We’ve seen Monty come up small in big opportunities, and this week he faces a tough matchup. The Vikings rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Montgomery has just been too consistently mediocre from a fantasy perspective to use him this week unless you’re desperate. Monty’s best hope is that Minnesota goes to their backup defense early on and he gets in the end zone. I’m not willing to count on that even at a price tag of just $5,100 on DraftKings.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): The Bills have absolutely nothing to gain from winning this weekend. They’re locked into the 5^th seed in the AFC playoffs. They have no incentive to put a critical player like Singletary in harm’s way. If he does get the start, I would be stunned if he plays into the second half. Josh Allen is also likely to have a short day if he plays at all. TJ Yeldon is the running back I’d expect to have the best fantasy day for Buffalo. His ability as a pass catcher gives him the edge over Frank Gore, especially with the Jets being stout against the run. New York ranks second in run defense DVOA.

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): The Patriots actually care about winning this game, and they’ve allowed the fewest RB PPR points per game. Laird and Gaskin have played a much more even split of the backfield snaps in the last two weeks, making both untrustworthy for fantasy purposes. If I had to pick one it would be Laird, but both are bad fantasy plays this week.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): With the 6^th seed already etched in stone for Minnesota, I’d expect Mike Boone and CJ Ham to handle most of the running back duties against Chicago. Mattison and Dalvin Cook might both end up inactive again. Even if they don’t, I wouldn’t expect either one to see a carry in the 2^nd half. The Bears will be playing for pride and for a .500 season, and despite their struggles still have one of the better defenses in the league. Boone is the option I’d look at if considering a cheap DFS play in this backfield.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Brown has a questionable tag this week, and I can’t imagine he plays more than a few series even if he is active. The Ravens have nothing to gain by winning, so there shouldn’t be a lot of Brown, Mark Andrews or Willie Snead. There certainly won’t be enough of Brown to trust in fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined.

WR N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): I’d like Meyers quite a bit this week if the Pats had already clinched a bye in the first round, but they haven’t. The Patriots need to win this week to secure the bye, and it’s been a guessing game in recent weeks as to which receivers will get the playing time. Julian Edelman is the only receiver on the team who has played 60% of the snaps or more 3 times in the last 4 games. Sanu seems to be back to a full-time role, but it always feels like that could change at a moment’s notice. The Dolphins are a great matchup for any offense to face, but there isn’t a lot of evidence pointing to Harry or Meyers being a good option this week.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): I put my faith in JJ last week, and after posting 2-39 on the game’s opening drive he wasn’t targeted again. You’d think at some point the Eagles will have to start utilizing him more as the depth chart thins out, especially in a must-win game like this one. Zach Ertz has been ruled out for this game, so it’ll be Greg Ward, Dallas Goedert and the running backs aside from JJAW. The Giants are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so there is upside in JJ at his meager $3,700 price tag on DraftKings, but I’ve been intrigued by him before and been burned. He’s not a player I’ll be taking a flyer on this week.

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Terry McLaurin may have been ruled out for this week already, but that won’t change the fact that Harmon is mainly a low-upside PPR option who just posted his best career game at 10.8 PPR points. Don’t buy in to upside for Harmon that just isn’t there for him right now. Dallas allows the 6^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. You should probably avoid Harmon this week.

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Johnson is likely to play a lot this week, but we’ve seen him do that with Thielen out and he only mustered sporadic production. The Bears allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Johnson hasn’t reached 50 yards in any game all season. Don’t think of him as an upside DFS option just because he’s cheap and Diggs & Thielen are unlikely to play much.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Smith bounced back in a big way last weekend with 2 touchdowns against Washington, but he is unlikely to have a strong follow up. The Eagles have allowed just 3 tight ends to reach 9 PPR points all season long, and just one since week 4. Philly has struggled to contain wide receivers but has been one of the best teams in the league at stopping the tight end position. I’d look elsewhere for upside DFS tight ends this week.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Knox could get a boost from any extended Matt Barkley playing time. He caught 2 passes for 37 yards among Barkley’s 16 pass attempts in week 4. He costs just $2,700 on DraftKings, but the Jets allow the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. There are higher upside options to chase.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): With Mark Ingram sitting out, it’ll be Gus Edwards and Hill handling most of the rushing attempts. This should be the first real extended look we get at Hill all year. Hill posted 51 yards and a touchdown on 6 touches last week and should see his way to double-digit touches in this one. The Steelers boast a solid defense, but Hill’s speed makes him a home run threat at just about any time. He’s an inexpensive $4,600 on DraftKings. I’d only be thinking of him as an upside DFS tournament play.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): Pollard has been a non-factor in most games where the Cowboys are trailing or playing close, but they’re a 12-point favorite this week against a Washington defense that allows the 3^rd-most RB PPR points per game. This is a prime spot for Pollard to have a big game and he costs just $4,000 on DraftKings. There’s a low floor, as evidenced by his negative point performance last week, but he’s a very interesting DFS Tournament play.

WR Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): The matchup isn’t ideal, as I laid out with Kelvin Harmon above, but Sims has been heavily involved with 21 targets and 3 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks, and his DFS price hasn’t caught up with his production yet. With McLaurin out he should see close to double-digit targets again, and he’s a small, speedy receiver who should see a couple deep targets from Case Keenum. He’s not exactly a safe play, but he has a great chance to outproduce his $4,700 price tag on DraftKings.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Like Justice Hill, Boykin should get a chance to shine as the guys ahead of him on the depth chart get a light week to keep them healthy for the playoffs. Boykin has turned 3 of his 13 catches on the year into touchdowns, and he costs just the minimum on DraftKings. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments with the upside to be more. With the Steelers favored by a couple points, the Ravens may throw a little more than they typically do.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): The majority of the practice snaps this week for Minnesota tight ends have gone to backups Smith and Tyler Conklin. I’d be surprised if Kyle Rudolph doesn’t play a diminished role with nothing at stake for the Vikings, and the Bears allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Smith costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and may very well lead the Vikings in receiving this week. He’s a worthwhile option in DFS tournaments.

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.