There were 5 ejections out of 3 fights in the games on Sunday - and they featured some superstar names like Mike Evans (suspended 1 game), A.J. Green, and Carlos Hyde. T.Y. Hilton killed it in week 9 - was anyone expecting that?! Join us at 8pm CT every Tuesday night to talk turkey about the fantasy football. Good luck!
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Welcome back to the Rookie Report. We’re all feeling the sting of bye weeks right now, but there were plenty of fill-in options that came up big last week. Martavis Bryant was at it again with another 2 TDs, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham had breakout games, and Jeremy Hill made people who had stashed him during the first half of the season feel really smart with a monster game in his first start. There should be plenty more rookies helping you survive the week 10 byes. Let’s take a look at what to expect this week…
Rookies to Start:
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): As I just mentioned, the Bengals’ rook was excellent in his first start last week, piling up over 150 yards and 2 TDs. Gio will likely be out again. The Browns give up 140 rushing yards per game, 2nd most in the NFL behind only the Packers. Hill is a must-start with RB1 potential. If by some miracle Bernard plays, Hill would still see extended work and be at least a strong flex play.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Cincinnati has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards in the league and the 6th most fantasy RB points. It looks like West is going to get the starter’s share of the work this week and for the immediate future, which makes him an RB2 this week. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be more successful than Tate’s been behind a line that has struggled since Alex Mack went down for the year. In this matchup, he’ll still be useful.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Evans is coming off his best game as a pro, and gets the piss poor Falcons defense next. It’s the perfect scenario for a big follow-up game, except that Lovie Smith has made the decision to switch quarterbacks and return to Josh McCown. The change casts some questions for Evans’s outlook this week, but with so many byes this week he’s at least a WR3.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 10: @Phi.): Philly has one of the worst defenses in the league against WRs, allowing 25.6 points per game. The Panthers will have had 10 days to get ready for the Eagles, which is plenty of time to find ways to get Kelvin involved. The Eagles’ best CB plays in the slot, so there is a big chance for one of KB’s best game of the season. Get him in this week.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. KC): Kansas City is a pretty tough matchup, so don’t expect a repeat of what he did against the Jets, but he will continue to be the focal point of the Bills’ passing game and is a safe WR2 this week. Temper expectations, but fire him up again.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 10: @NYJ): It’s hard not to ride the hot streak while it lasts. Bryant has played just 3 games so far, and already has 5 TDs to show for it. He does have just 10 receptions in those games, so he’s a better option for standard leagues than PPR. The Jets’ secondary is atrocious and Big Ben is throwing smoke right now. Bryant is a solid WR3 this week and is a good bet for another TD.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Carr has slowly been rounding into form since Tony Sparano took charge, and he threw 2 TD in Seattle last week. This week’s game has a ton of blowout potential, so Carr should be throwing plenty. The Broncos allow the 5th most QB fantasy points and 2 TDs per game. Carr has some appeal as a low-end QB2.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Mason has some flex appeal despite having a really tough matchup this week. There are still questions about his role in the offense since Jeff Fisher insisted that they will still employ a committee approach, but Mason has shown himself to clearly be the most talented back on the team. Over the last 3 weeks, Mason has had 46 touches, compared to 19 for Benny Cunningham and 8 for Zac Stacy. Fisher did mention before last week’s game that it should provide a little clarity into the running back situation, and Mason saw the lion’s share of the work. He should see the same going forward. His upside is limited this week, but could be a solid flex with so many byes.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 10: vs. Ten.): Zo’s fumble in week 9 certainly doesn’t help his outlook, but he should remain the clear number 2 behind Forsett. Against the Titans’ porous run D, that position has value. He should see 10+ touches this week and is always a threat for a red zone TD.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 10: @Sea.): The only reason Beckham isn’t a must-start is because he faces the Legion of Boom in Seattle. The Giants line Beckham up all over the field and I don’t expect Richard Sherman to shadow him. Odell is already becoming the go-to guy for the G-Men due to Rueben Randle’s inconsistency that was on full display on Monday night. Randle and Eli just seem to never be on the same page. Beckham is still a really decent flex option this week, but there’s always a risk when you take on the Seahawks.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 10: vs. SF): Cooks has settled in as a weekly boom-or-bust WR3 option, but he’s alternated good and bad weeks. He’s due for a good week, and SF has struggled against slot WRs over the last couple seasons. I think he’s a decent bet for 6+ catches this week and a solid option for PPR leagues.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): In his worst game since week 1, Robinson was still targeted 8 times. His role isn’t diminishing. He remains a decent WR3 option each week. I’d expect a minor bounce back this week.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Chi.): Adams has hit 75 or more yards in 2 of his past 3 games and scored a TD in the other one, and he’s playing on almost every snap. He’s still a boom-or-bust WR3 option each week, but he’s been gaining consistency. He’s actually a pretty safe option this week with so many teams on byes.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): The Panthers’ pass defense isn’t very good, but the Eagles’ pass catchers fight for scraps after Jeremy Maclin eats. Things might change a little bit with Mark Sanchez under center, but the scheme funnels targets to Maclin. Matthews has a high enough floor in PPR leagues to be a fill-in WR3 with the byes this week, but probably needs a TD to make you happy.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys have limited opposing passers all year by playing keep away with DeMarco Murray. The Cardinals put a stop to that last week by holding Murray in check, but the Jags likely won’t do the same, especially if Romo plays. Bortles just hasn’t been efficient enough to be a good play with limited opportunities.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Do you have any confidence in Bishop Sankey when he has a good matchup? I don’t, so why would I have any when he’s taking on the number 1 defense in the league against fantasy RBs? He’ll get work, but the Titans just don’t seem to have any idea how to get him going. I’m playing Sankey in one league because I simply have no other options, but I really don’t feel good about it. Sit him if you can.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 10: @Sea.): I’m not sure of Rashad Jennings’s status for this week, but even if he doesn’t play, I wouldn’t want to trot Williams out there. He hasn’t piled up yards, topping out at just 66 yards in any game this season. The Seahawks have allowed just 3 rushing scores on the year. I don’t think Williams gets one this week. If you play him, you’ll likely be disappointed.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Crowell has become a forgotten man in the Cleveland backfield, even though coach Mike Pettine insists he isn’t in the doghouse. His decreased role seems a harsh punishment for one game where he struggled with ball security. Terrance West is unlikely to be much more effective than Ben Tate, so Crowell’s time may still be coming this year. He’s easily the most talented back on the roster and should be stashed if you have the space to do it.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 10: @NO): Hyde hasn’t had enough work to really merit a spot in your lineup, but his long term stock did get a bit of a bump this week with the announcement that Marcus Lattimore is retiring. The 49ers signed Kendall Hunter to a one-year extension to be the 3rd back, so Hyde is quickly looking like the obvious heir apparent to Frank Gore, who has to be approaching the end of his great career.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. StL): I wasn’t big on Brown last week, thinking it was due to be a Michael Floyd week. It didn’t quite work out that way for Floyd, but Brown did have a miserable fantasy week. I feel the same way this week that Palmer will want to get Floyd going. The Rams do give up a lot of fantasy points to WRs, but I wouldn’t feel good about taking a chance on Brown this week.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Don’t chase last week’s points. Hurns’s monster game in week 9 was an outlier, and it’s unlikely he repeats those numbers again this season. I’d expect a return to his normal production this week and would keep him benched.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 10: @Det.): Facing off with Detroit’s stingy D this week, this isn’t the time to get Landry in the lineup. He’s a low-end WR4 this week and is unlikely to make a big splash against the league’s best D vs. WRs.
WR Paul Richardson, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Richardson has the tools to fill the Percy Harvin role, but it’s a boom-or-bust role that will bust more often than it booms. There are better options available.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Pit.): Considering that Amaro had ZERO targets in Michael Vick’s first start, it’s tough to have a lot of faith in a bounce back this week. Eventually they will build a rapport, but I don’t see it happening this week.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): After Mike Evans’s breakout game last week, the rookie wideout should garner more defensive attention this week, which could free up ASJ a bit more. With that said, Seferian-Jenkins caught just 1 of 3 targets last week for 3 yards, and the Falcons allow less than 5 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. I wouldn’t roll the dice here.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Mett acquitted himself well in garbage time in his first start, and he might have some more garbage time again this week. The Ravens are the number 1 defense against RBs in fantasy, but they are in the bottom-10 against QBs. They have given up 263 pass yards per game on the year, and just lost their top corner Jimmy Smith for the year 2 weeks ago. Mett has some very sneaky upside this week in 2QB leagues.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): It’s hard to trust a guy that we haven’t seen play a regular season down, but the Bucs have talked up Sims a ton and the Falcons are the worst defense in the league against running backs. Sims will at the very least play on passing downs. It will take a leap of faith to play Sims, but he could be a week-winning flex play in this matchup.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 10: @Oak.): Ronnie Hillman didn’t have his best game last week against the Patriots, and Montee Ball might not be active for this game in his return from a groin injury. If Ball is out again, there is a ton of blowout potential in this game. Thompson could see extended run in garbage time against a defense that gives up 22 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. He’s already vulturing Hillman TDs, and he could steal a little more early game work after Hillman’s rough week 9.
WR Corey Washington, NYG (Wk. 10: @Sea.): Washington isn’t a consideration for this week, but considering the injury to Victor Cruz, and how clear it is that Rueben Randle and Eli are not on the same page, Corey’s role may grow before long. He’s certainly more talented than Preston Parker, and is a name to know if Randle continues to run the wrong routes and kill drives.
TE Crockett Gillmore, BAL (Wk. 10: vs. Ten.): Gillmore is a better shot in the dark option than the other rookie tight ends this week if your starting TE is on bye. Look first for a Jared Cook or Joseph Fauria type, but the Ravens have a tight end friendly O and a plus matchup. Gillmore has to be getting more comfortable with his extended PT, and he did find the end zone last week.
Rookies on Byes: QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN, RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN, RB Branden Oliver, SD, RB Alfred Blue, HOU, WR Donte Moncrief, IND
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hope it helps. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the rookie report! While week 11 saw many of the phenomenal crop of rookie WRs continue their dominance (most notably Mike Evans), it was the rookie runners who surprised this past week. Alfred Blue and Jeremy Hill both topped 150 yards, Tre Mason topped 100, and Isaiah Crowell saw his most extended work of the season and put up 90 total yards. The only way it could have been better would be if some of them found the end zone.
Before we dive into this week’s games, I just want to make a point to remind everyone to check the status of their lineup throughout the week, or at least one final check before the games get started on Sunday. Last week I didn’t even mention Alfred Blue in this column and recommended Terrance West as a starter. By Sunday, Arian Foster was out for the Texans and Crowell was announced as starter for the Browns. Pay attention so you don’t miss the boat when these sorts of things happen. There are a lot of borderline rookies this week, so make sure to pay attention to the details. With that, let’s dive into this week’s rookie matchups…
Rookies to Start:
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 12: @SD): The Rams have found the formula that works for them over the past few weeks, and it includes a lot of Tre Mason. The Rams have won 2 of 3 in a brutal stretch (@SF, @Ari, Den.), and Mason averaged 84 yards from scrimmage in those 3 contests. The Chargers are just a middle of the road run defense right now, so Mason is poised for what should be a solid RB2 day.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): This call hinges entirely on the health of Arian Foster. There’s been talk that Foster is expected to play in week 12, but if he doesn’t, Blue is in line for another big day. Mallett’s willingness to take shots downfield opens up some room to run, and the Bengals already allow the 6th most RB points in the league. If Foster does suit up, you’d probably want to keep Blue on the pine. The Texans haven’t really eased Foster’s workload if he plays, even when nicked up.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Tell me one thing that you’ve seen from the Chicago defense that makes you think they can stop Mike Evans. Go ahead. I’ll wait. The truth is, they haven’t done anything to show that, and Evans has at least 7-100-1 in each of his past 3 games, and while he’s not a lock to hit those marks again this week, the upside is just too immense to sit him.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys’ defense has been really good against opposing WRs, but it’s been more of a product of their run-first offense and high time of possession. They don’t have anyone who can cover OBJ, and as long as the G-Men can keep the ‘Boys from from holding the ball for 40 minutes, OBJ should be a safe WR2 yet again.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): The matchup isn’t quite as good as you’d think, but J-Matt will continue to be a safe WR3 as long as Sanchez is under center. He’s topped 100 yards in each of Sanchize’s 2 starts and has 3 TDs to go with those yards. Expect the good times to keep rolling.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Mett’s going to continue to suffer through some rookie growing pains, but his big arm and porous Philly D should make him an upside QB2 option this week. The Eagles have allowed 287 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. If Mett approaches those stats, He’d be a borderline QB1.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ind.): Bortles has had an extra week to get ready for the Colts, and their defense isn’t imposing (10th most QB points per game allowed), but he’s still no better than a QB2 option without Allen Robinson. He’s been too turnover prone to trust as a number 1, even with decent matchups.
RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 12: @Atl.): The Browns’ backfield situation got a little less crowded this week when Ben Tate was waived by the team, but there still isn’t a ton of clarity as to who the starter will be. The plan seems to be to watch and see who practices best and let them start each week. Crowell is the more talented back, but until Sunday we probably won’t know for sure which guy will get the nod. Whichever back starts will be worth a start on your fantasy squad. The Falcons allow the 2nd most fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs, and Josh Gordon’s return should keep them from stacking the box. I’d expect Crowell to start, but check on Sunday. The back that doesn’t start will be a dicey flex play at best.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 12: @Hou.): Gio should be back this week, but Hill has undoubtedly earned a bigger role in the offense going forward. His carries will take a hit this week, which makes him more of a flex option than a safe starter, but if he gets a hot hand the Bengals know they can ride him. Bengals' beat writers expect Hill to continue to see the most carries on the team for the immediate future, but there’s a lot of volatility with Gio back in the mix.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. GB): I’d expect Ben Tate to need at least a week to get up to speed on the playbook and be a part of the offense, so McKinnon remains the best bet to see lead back carries for the Vikes. Without a bunch of byes this week, he’s just a borderline option. The game flow is likely to keep him from piling up carries, and he still hasn’t scored his first TD, but his workload keeps him in the flex mix.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Sankey’s role has stabilized over the past few weeks, even as his yards per carry have dipped a bit. He finally scored his 2nd TD of the season last week, but he’ll likely need another TD this week to be considered a successful flex play. I would expect over 60 total yards against a suspect Philly run defense.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): The Buffalo snow storm couldn’t have come at a worse time for Watkins. He’s coming off back-to-back down games, and this week gets to do battle with the Jets’ awful secondary, which he torched for 3-157-1 the last time he faced them. If weather isn’t a factor, Watkins would be a safe WR2. If things aren’t totally cleaned up by Sunday, it could be a run-heavy football game that will make it really tough for Watkins to blow up the way he could against New York. Pay attention to the field conditions on Sunday.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 12: @Sea.): Larry Fitzgerald is fighting through an MCL sprain, and although he plans to play through it, he will undoubtedly be limited. The Seahawks defense is outstanding against WRs, but the small, quick guys like Brown are the ones that give them trouble. Stanton clearly likes him. Until this past week, every Stanton TD pass was to Brown and he hit him 5 times in the game against the Lions. Expect 4-5 catches and an ok shot at a TD for Brown this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 12: @Den.): Landry is still just fodder for PPR leagues, but as usual he’s in the conversation for WR3 for those leagues. Denver should be playing angry after losing to the Rams, and they won’t take their foot off the gas pedal if they get ahead. That should keep the Dolphins throwing, and should help Landry to pull in at least 5 receptions. He’s more of a WR4 in standard leagues.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ind.): Allen Robinson is done for the year, and it was announced this week that Hurns will start with Marqise Lee playing in 3-WR sets. Hurns has put up some blowup games with other Jaguar receivers sidelined, and there’s a chance he does it again this week. He’s very much a boom-or-bust option with Cecil Shorts likely to see a lot more volume, but Hurns’s deep threat skills give him some appeal as a WR3. Lee isn’t worth a play.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): Adams appeared to be gaining consistency headed into the Packers’ bye week, but he has just 3 catches for 23 yards and a TD in the 2 games since. Aaron Rodgers said he expected Adams to have some chances going into the Philly game, but it didn’t really play out that way. You’d have to be pretty ballsy to play him, but Adams still has some boom-or-bust WR3 appeal. You just get the feeling that Rodgers has to start looking his way sooner or later.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Seferian-Jenkins is an excellent streaming option this week if you’re missing Dwayne Allen, Julius Thomas, Heath Miller or Greg Olsen. The Bears give up a league-worst 12 points per game to opposing tight ends, and ASJ plays on just about every snap for the Bucs. He disappointed last week against the ‘Skins, but the Bucs should be throwing a bunch to keep pace with the Bears’ offense. He’s a low end TE1 option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. GB): Teddy’s likely to be throwing a bunch, but he still has a bit of a low ceiling. He still hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in one game, and although they should be playing from behind, you can’t have any confidence that he’ll do so this week. He’s a dart throw low-end QB2 at best.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 12: vs. KC): The Chiefs’ defense has been stingy during their current 5-game win streak, and there’s no reason to expect that to stop against the winless Raiders. KC has allowed the fewest pass yards per game in the league. Carr isn’t a great option in good matchups. This is a really bad one. The KC defense is an ideal streaming play if they’re available.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 12: @NO): The 49ers and Bengals showed over the past two weeks that the way to win in the Superdome is to run the ball down the Saints’ throats, but there’s no way to know if it’ll be ‘Zo or Pierce who will see primary backup work behind Justin Forsett. Taliaferro is only worth considering for a flex spot if you know he’ll get the number 2 RB work for Baltimore.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 12: vs. StL.): With Ryan Mathews back, Oliver still saw the same 13 carries he handled in the previous 2 contests, but he just hasn’t been doing much with those carries lately. The Rams’ D is stingy vs. running backs, so I’d keep Oliver benched this week. There isn’t enough upside for the risk.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): The ‘Skins do defend the run effectively, and the 49ers have still been using a lot more Gore than Hyde. You can do better than Carlos this week. At best, he’s a roll of the dice for a TD.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): This is an easy call, but I just wanted to point out that with Jennings back from injury, Williams saw just 3 touches for 6 total yards. Don’t even consider him.
WR Paul Richardson, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): There are no changes for Richardson’s outlook this week. He just won’t see enough volume to make an impact, and he should see a lot of Antonio Cromartie this week. It’s just not a good situation for him.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Buf.): Amaro had a decent number of targets come his way in his last game, but he has just 2 catches for 6 yards and a TD in Vick’s 2 starts. Even with TE being incredibly shallow this year, I wouldn’t bank on much from Amaro this week.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 12: @NE): The matchup is decent with the Pats allowing 9 points per game to opposing TEs, but the Lions have 3 capable tight ends. Even if the Pats are able to slow down Megatron, I haven’t seen anything that makes me think Ebron will pick up much of that slack. Don’t roll the dice here.
Rookies on Byes: WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR, WR Martavis Bryant, PIT
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): He hasn’t overwhelmed since returning from injured reserve, but he seems to have taken the lead back role from Bobby Rainey. The Bucs want to see what they have in Sims, and the Bears’ D is certainly beatable. Sims should be a dart throw flex option in deeper leagues.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Ball and Hillman are both out for the next couple of weeks. C.J. Anderson undoubtedly has the lead back role going in, but Thompson is still capable of vulturing a TD or 2. He will at the very least see change of pace work.
WR Cody Latimer, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): RB isn’t the only position where the Broncos are banged up. Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both are questionable for next week, and if one or both don’t play, I think this is the week Denver finally unleashes Latimer. If he gets his chance, he could really benefit from Brent Grimes playing on Demaryius Thomas. It’ll be hard to pull the trigger without more official news from the Broncos about his role, but his talent is real and his time may be coming.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): With Bradshaw out and Allen banged up, Colts may look for a spark from Moncrief. We saw in the first meeting with Jacksonville that the Colts won’t let up when they get a lead, and I could see Moncrief getting some extra snaps. He did catch 4 balls for 55 yards in garbage time in the first meeting, and a similar stat line this time wouldn’t shock me at all.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you win this week. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.
Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:
Ryan Tannehill: Wk 10 @ DET – 11.28 pts, Wk 11 vs BUF – 16.80 pts, Wk 12 @ DEN – 27.6 pts
We tend to always look at the downward trends, but let’s start off with an upward trend. Tannehill has gotten through a tough stretch and had a great showing last week against a tough Denver defense. Tannehills remaining schedule is split. This week he faces the Jets, then has to face Baltimore and New England, before getting Minnesota in Week 16. Our question, though, is for Week 13. Will Tannehill score 20 or more points (yahoo projection)? The Jets are giving up 21 points/game to opposing QB’s.
Both of us predicted he would go over 20 points in a game against a weak Jets secondary. Well, what better way to start off the segment than by both drinking? Tannehill really struggled, but came out with a win. 235 yards passing with 1 INT and adding only 13 yards on the ground is not going to cut it when it comes to fantasy, but this was his low point of the year and I do not expect it to be repeated.
John Brown: Wk 10 vs STL – 13.30 pts, Wk 11 vs DET – 6.90, Wk 12 @ SEA – 6.10 pts
Brown has really been flashy for the Cardinals, but not consistent at all. He is very touchdown dependent so far this year. With Fitzgerald out of the lineup, it was expected that Brown would pick up the slack, but that wasn’t the case last week. Brown has a plus matchup this week in Atlanta, but then faces KC, @ STL and SEA to finish off your fantasy season. This guy has fool’s gold written all over him. We’ll set the over/under at 8 points.
John Brown's dependence on the TD is very apparently and we both picked him to go under 8 points for the week. HIs 2 catches for 40 yards against Atlanta will only get him halfway to our line. Until there is a proper QB in Arizona, none of their WR's are every week starts. Everybody else drinks five!
LeSean McCoy: Wk 10 vs CAR – 7.70 pts, Wk 11 @ GB – 10.60 pts, Wk 12 vs TEN – 19.10 pts
McCoy has definitely not lived up to his expectations this season. He had an ADP of 1, but is 14th overall for RB points.McCoy struggled at the beginning of the year with a constantly changing offensive line, it has really solidified in the last few weeks. McCoy is trending up, but has not broken 20 points in a single game all season. With Sproles in there vulturing touchdowns and Polk spelling him, is McCoy ever going to return to his former status as the top back in the league? This week he faces Dallas on Thanksgiving, a team with a vastly improved (though still middle of the pack) run defense. We’ll set the over/under at 12 points.
Both of us predicted that he would go over 12 points and he was the Real McCoy this week, carrying the ball 25 times for 159 yards and 1 TD. His 1 fumble kept him below the 20 point mark (19.9), but I suppose I can live with that. McCoy now finds himself in the top 10 RB's (10) for the season. Everybody drinks!
Frank Gore: Wk 10 @ NO – 14.30 pts, Wk 11 @ NYG – 9.40 pts, Wk 12 vs WAS – 1.60 pts
Gore is pointed in the wrong direction. Though he’s had plenty of work the last three weeks, 55 carries total, he’s only managed 212 yards in that stretch which is good for only 3.85 yards per carry. Getting a solid 18+ carries per game should spell success for a back like Gore, but the 49ers offense has really struggled lately. Gore plays host to Seattle this week, and has games coming up in Oakland, Seattle and home against the Chargers. We’ll set the over/under on Gore at 8.50 points.
Both of us said Gore would stay under 8.5 (Dave says he never scores over 12 points in his life). I think Dave might be on to something. 10 carries for 28 yards, 2 targets for 1 catch and 8 yards receiving does not make a good game. 3.6 points total is just brutal, and Gore has only 4 games in double digits all year. He's a sit for me the rest of the season.
Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts
Wright had a great game against the Lions, outscoring even the great Gronk. Why do I include a player such as Tim Wright in this list? Frankly, I don’t like starting tight ends that are going to catch a TD or do nothing, so why is he relevant? He is currently the most picked up TE in yahoo leagues. If you need to pick up a TE, you probably need to win since it’s Week 13. Tim Wright cannot be relied upon to be the guy who helps you win. Instead look elsewhere for guys like Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Cameron or Delanie Walker if you have to fill a need at TE. We’ll set the over/under at 6.10 points for Wright.
Dave has a rather specific prediction that says he will score between 6.1 and 8.0, I said under 6.1. Wright had just one target in an exciting game, netting him just 12 yards and no touchdowns. Wright is only played for his TD scoring (6 on the season) and really is only a last minute option. Dave drinks five for this one
Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 13 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!
Joe Flacco: Wk 10 vs TEN - 10.56 pts, Wk 12 @ NO - 13.92 pts, Wk 13 vs SD - 23.30 pts
Flacco hasn't been lighting up the world since his 5 TD game back in week 6, but his 23+ points against SD is the third time he's gone over 20 points this season. Flacco will go to Miami for Week 14, a team that is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing QB's. Flacco is clearly in the QB2 conversation, but does he need to be a sit this week? We will set the line at 14 points.
Mike Evans: Wk 11 vs ATL - 32.90 pts, Wk 12 @ CHI - 10.70 pts, Wk 13 vs CIN - 4.90 pts
Evans is a member of this year's stellar WR rookie crop and was on his way to rookie of the year consideration for a while there. He scored 86.5 points in a 4 week stretch (9-12) and had 6 TD's in that time. Last week he struggled, catching only 4 of 9 targets for 49 yards against the Bengals. This week it gets even harder, playing the Lions in Detroit. We'll set Evans's line at 11 points - can McCown get him the ball enough?
DeSean Jackson: Wk 11 vs TB - 3.70 pts, Wk 12 @ SF - 3.90 pts, Wk 13 @ IND - 14.40 pts
Jackson is the victim of one of the more volatile QB situations in the league. The Redskins have had 3 starting QB's this season, though it does appear that they will stick with Colt McCoy for the remainder of the season. This is good news for Jackson as he has 14 points per game when McCoy starts and he's under 10 per game on average when he does not. This week, Jackson faces the Rams whom are giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR's. Can Jackson keep his trend going upward? We will set the line for him at 12 points.
Jeremy Hill: Wk 11 @ NO - 16.50 pts, Wk 12 @ HOU - 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts
Side note before we start, the Bengals just had 3 road games and won all 3 of them, a first in franchise history. Hill has been a big part of two of those wins, racking up over 30 points in the first two games, but only carrying the ball 13 times for 40 yards last week (3.1 ypc). That's quite disappointing, compared to the 4.9 ypc he had going into the game. Hill criticized the play calling, his OC promptly called him out, saying he needs to break more tackles and block better. Perhaps the fire has been lit under Hill's ass and he has a home game against the Steelers this Sunday to show he deserves time on the field instead of Giovani Bernard. We'll set the line for Hill at 10 this week, due to the Steelers only giving up 16 to opposing RB's and Gio getting back into the swing of things.
Rashad Jennings: Wk 11 vs SF - 6.70 pts, Wk 12 vs DAL - 12.00 pts, Wk 13 @ JAX 21.40 pts
Jennings returned to the Giants lineup three weeks ago, and has been trending up ever since. His first game was shaky against the 49ers, but since then has been the RB2 you expected him to be. Andre Williams is basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes and all but being a goal line back for the Giants. Jennings will see the bulk of the work going forward, as his 26 carries in Jacksonville can attest. We'll set the line at 12 points for his Week 14 matchup in Tennessee.
Jason Witten: Wk 10 @ JAX - 9.30 pts, Wk 12 @ NYG - 9.00 pts, Wk 13 vs PHI - 0.80 pts
Tight Ends don't really seem to trend like QB/WR/RB, but let's give it a shot anyway. Witten has been a disappointment all season and while 30 yards and a TD in weeks 10 and 12 may seem acceptable, those are the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring weeks this season. Witten plays the "soft enough for a bear in the woods" Chicago Bears defense, so can we expect 9 points, or is he a definite sit?
Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 14 and we will recap the results next week.