We finally made it to Week 1! Football starts this week with the Texans @ Chiefs on Thursday night and I will be just one of millions waiting for the kickoff - beer in hand - that signals the start of the fantasy football season. This is going to be a tricky one, with flexible COVID-19 IR slots and constant testing at the forefront of the discussion, but that's all the more reason to be deep in research and statistics as we start the season. Best of luck to you all!
Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.
7 Games of 60+ Rushing Yards
It’s hard to pick just one stat to lead with for Lamar Jackson, so let’s go with the one that nobody else has done in league history. Jackson is now the first QB in the NFL to have 60+ rush yards in 7 straight starts, as he continues his march towards Michael Vick’s single season record. Jackson added 86 yards on just 9 carries on Sunday. He’s now on pace for 1,260 rush yards and at this rate will easily break the record before Christmas. Jackson is amazingly efficient and playing so well for his team. His fantasy totals are gaudy, but don’t exactly feel like they would be if you look at just his passing stats. Another 4 passing TDs yesterday brought his season total to 19 – congrats to you preseason bettors, his Vegas over/under was just 15. He has had over 30 pass attempts just 4 times this season (2 of them were his team’s losses), and is just magnificent this year, especially for fantasy. He has zero fumbles, something that only Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray and Mason Rudolph can claim, though none of them run the ball like Lamar.
0.36 More Fantasy Points Than Lamar Jackson
Only one player in the NFL had more fantasy points than Lamar Jackson through Sunday, and it was Josh Allen, as he dismantled the Dolphins. The difference between the two is really that Allen had a rushing TD, his 7th on the season, which leads all QBs and is tied for 6th among all players in the NFL. Allen is showing plenty of growth in his second season. Last year he started 11 games, and this year he has 10 under his belt and he already has more pass yards, more pass TDs and fewer INTs. His completion rate has improved significantly and he is the QB6 on the season. Allen hasn’t thrown a pick in the last 5 straight games. He has played very well and just might hold on to make the playoffs. With a solid QB and a good defense, they might even be able to win a game there.
3 TDs in 3 Straight Starts
I don’t mean to only talk about QBs so far, but I would be remiss if I did not gush a little about the play of Dak Prescott, who has quietly been awesome this year. Unfortunately, his team does not beat good teams, but damn he’s played well against everyone since New Orleans in Week 4. Over the last 3 weeks, Prescott has 9 passing TDs and 1,098 passing yards over that time – he now leads the league with 3,221 passing yards. Prescott has reduced the frequency that he runs, but he’s gaining a lot more per run on the ground this year, up to 5.8 yards per carry, the second highest total of his career. These smarts also help keep him on the field – he hasn’t missed a start in his 4 seasons. So, Dak sits as the QB3 in fantasy football and the 4th player overall. He’s having a great season and would be in the MVP talk if it wasn’t for the couple of QBs ahead of him, who are just a little bit better and winning a few more games. That being said, don’t count him out – there’s still lots of football left to play.
19.10 Points Without a Touchdown
OK, enough about the QBs, let’s dive into the RBs, who admittedly, had a down week. Leading the pack was Mark Ingram, who is the only RB to break the 20-point barrier as of Sunday in Week 11. He found the end zone twice through the air and was the week’s RB1, despite only gaining 85 yards from scrimmage. The guy who did rack up gaudy totals was, of course, Christian McCaffrey, who added another 191 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches. McCaffrey has 1,576 yards from scrimmage on the season, and he’s still on pace to just squeak by the single-season record of 2,510. Considering he put up another 19 points without finding the end zone, he’s clearly the fantasy MVP outside of QBs. He has 32 more fantasy points than the 2nd place team and is beating the RB8, the aforementioned Mark Ingram, by over 100 points on the season.
94 Receptions in 10 Games
Congrats to Michael Thomas, who continues to be an absolute beast for Drew Brees and the Saints. Thomas now has 94 receptions through 10 games, obviously a league lead, but also a milestone that no one else in league history has reached. He’s leading the league this year with 1,141 receiving yards and is on pace for 150 receptions on the season, which would break Marvin Harrison’s record of 143. Heck, Thomas is already 5th on that list with his 125-catch effort last season, a number he’s certain to break soon. Thomas now has 11 or more targets in all but 2 games this season, and has done the majority of his damage without Brees under center. Yesterday’s effort of 114 receiving yards exactly matches his 114 yards per game average this season. I’m all for players who like to express themselves, as we have seen at WR in the last few years, but there’s something awesome about the quiet dominance we get from guys like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
95% Completion Rate
Minshew Mania is alive and well in Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew led the Jaguars to victory over the much-hyped Colts. So much for the tank in Jacksonville, though if we learned anything from the Dolphins last year, a tank mentality is generally only present in the front office. The players and coaches never want to tank. I say bravo Minshew. He was brilliant, completing 19 of 20 passes for a 95% completion rate. He has the third highest passer rating so far in Week 1, behind only the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, and perennial MVP candidate Russell Wilson. Minshew’s 20.82 fantasy points are only good for 12th best this week, but he finished ahead of Mahomes and is very much in the conversation as an every week QB2 and a good streaming QB option.
14 Receptions
DeAndre Hopkins had a career high 14 receptions in his first game with the Cardinals. By contrast, the Texans WRs had only 13 total receptions. Hopkins’ previous career high was 12 receptions, which he achieved only once. Sunday’s performance with his new QB Kyler Murray is just a signal of what’s to come on this high-powered offense that now has a true #1 option. It also highlights how much the Texans missed their former #1 option on offense. Back to Arizona, who were very impressive in defeating last year’s NFC champs. Kyler Murray did not need to do a ton in the passing game – only 12 of his 26 completions went to someone not named DeAndre. Murray’s real contribution to this game came on the ground, he had 91 rushing yards along with another TD. Murray and Hopkins both finished as the 5th highest scoring fantasy player at their respective positions.
3 WRs in the Top 11
Perhaps the Packers brass knows what they’re doing after all, when it comes to WRs. Aaron Rodgers’ attitude towards his team was the subject of a lot of offseason talk. They did not acquire any new talent for Rodgers to play with, which was seen by many as a mistake. Rodgers, the true professional that he is, just poured himself a tall glass of tequila and made the best out of what he had to work with. 3 of his WRs finished in the top 11 at their position this week, with Davante Adams holding the top spot with a gaudy stat line of 14 receptions for 156 yards and 2 scores. Marquez Valdes-Scantling put up 17.6 points, good for 9th and Allen Lazard was right behind him at 16.2 points and 11th on the week. As for Rodgers, he was just the QB2 on the week, throwing for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns, totaling 30.76 points. Next up for Rodgers is Detroit, who just made Mitchell Trubisky look like the right choice for the Bears. Look out NFC North – Rodgers is about to rampage through your division.
3 of the top 11 TEs
Over the course of a season, the better TEs generally will rise to the top, but it’s often very hard to predict them outside of maybe a handful at best. This season appears to be no different. Only 3 of the top 11 TEs in Week 1 are even rostered in our drinkfive fantasy league. These top 11 TEs all scored at least 10 points, so they would have all ben fantastic starts, if you were able to take the leap in Week 1 and avoid many of the bigger names that were drafted higher. Week 1 saw Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson and David Njoku all put up at least 50 yards and a TD – all now hot waiver wire pickups. Speaking of the wire, 4 guys in the top 11 are owned in 27% or fewer leagues on Fleaflicker – David Njoku, Logan Thomas, Jordan Akins and Jimmy Graham. Good luck picking the right guys on the waiver wire and not the ones who are a flash in the pan. I’m sure next week this column will feature another bunch of TEs putting up points that nobody started.
3 First Round Duds
Of the top 12 players drafted in 2020 (ranked by ADP), 3 of them were duds this week. We’re still waiting to see the results from Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley’s games tonight, but so far only 3 guys have disappointed out of the first round, and I think that’s a good consistency. The rest of the players drafted in the first round turned in really respectable to great stat lines, including the top RB and WR. We got disappointing performances from Michael Thomas (3 rec, 17 yards), Joe Mixon (69 yards, 1 rec for 2 yards and 1 fumble) and Nick Chubb (60 yards, 1 rec for 6 yards and 1 fumble). I expect all 3 players to recover nicely, especially Michael Thomas, who has now been held below 5 receptions in consecutive regular season games for the first time since Weeks 11 & 12 in 2018. Meanwhile, both Mixon and Chubb will need to help their teams find some sort of groove, as both teams combined for only 19 points.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
8 Rushing Attempts
The best running back in fantasy football received as many carries as the third-string QB slash gadget player on his team. Don’t worry, Alvin Kamara is still the best RB in fantasy, but his 8 carries for 15 yards is kind of funny to look at. He did find the end zone twice on those carries, but his 1.9 yards per carry versus Taysom Hill’s 5.6 yards per carry. Kamara owners are most thankful for the passing game, where he led the team with 7 receptions for 83 yards and another touchdown. This puts Kamara 56.1 fantasy points ahead of all but Dalvin Cook, who plays tonight and is the only other RB with any distance between him and the rest of the league. Cook has his work cut out for him, trying to keep up with Kamara. Kamara put up his third 30+ point performance this week, despite being out-rushed by a gadget QB. Cook has to face a Bears defense that hasn’t allowed 100 rushing yards to an opponent’s entire RB group since week 3.
14.5 Fantasy Points
Sounds like an OK game, right? What if it was a season total? What if this total was from a player who was drafted in the first round? What if this player, though injured, did manage to play 3 games this season? Well, this would be one of the more epic busts of the year, I suppose. Michael Thomas has a grand total of 18 targets with 10 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns in 3 games this season. Last season Michael Thomas had 300.1 fantasy points, so he’s not even reached 5% of those points so far this year. Let’s compare, for a moment, another first round pick who has played only 3 games. Christian McCaffrey, also facing a terrible disappointment of a season after having missed a majority of the season, has managed to put up 81.9 fantasy points in just 3 appearances, good for the RB31 on the season. He’s at least looking at nearly 20% of his points from last season. Thomas’s outlook for the rest of the season just looks bleak, with Drew Brees looking at a possible multi-week injury. Perhaps the injection of last year’s passing yards leader, Jameis Winston, can get him going again.
163 Fantasy Points in 5 Games
Kyler Murray has taken over the NFL in the past few weeks. His team now sits atop the toughest division in the league (by tiebreaker), he’s in the MVP conversation now, and he’s far and away the QB1 on the season. Over the past 5 games, Murray has averaged 32.6 points per game and scored at least 1 rushing and 1 passing TD in each game, an NFL record. He’s only thrown 3 interceptions during that stretch, compared to 10 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs. Murray is now 32 points ahead of the pack at the QB position and has already had his bye week. Checking in on the running back, Kyler Murray, he’s currently sitting at 604 rushing yards, good for 8th in the league. He has an average of 6.9 yards per carry, which leads the league and his 10 TDs are 2nd in the league on the ground. His 120.4 points on the ground would make him the RB11 on the season. We all get to watch Kyler on Thursday night in Seattle, so tune in to see what ridiculous shit he can come up with!
3-50+ Yard Field Goals
Tyler Bass (who?) had a hell of a day for the Bills. He finished the week as the top kicker, netting his owners a cool 19.7 points. Of course, the problem here is that he’s only owned in about 25% of fantasy leagues. Bass went 3 for 3 on Sunday, both in extra points and field goals, from 54, 55, and 58 yards. With this performance, Bass now finds himself on top of the kicker list, and hey, who doesn’t want to be K1? As the weather starts to really turn – we saw at least a couple of games really affected by the weather yesterday – nabbing kickers who will be indoors could be a very smart streaming move. We all also need to stop worrying about a name when we grab kickers. Of the kickers who have made 20 or more field goals this year, the highest ownership rate is Jason Sanders of Miami, only at 68%. Justin Tucker will not save you, or your fantasy team, especially since he’s outdoors in crummy weather cities for all but one game to close out the season.
728 Days
It’s been basically two full years since the #1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft, Alex Smith, started a game. To celebrate, he went ahead and put up career highs in pass attempts (55), pass completions (38), and passing yards (390). Unfortunately for his Football Team, he was unable to find the end zone, and ultimately, they fell to the Lions after some exciting back-and-forth in the 4th quarter which saw 5 scores between the two teams. Smith looks like he’s set to start the rest of the season in Washington, and in an incredibly down NFC East, they could make the playoffs if they could just win a couple of games. The Eagles are currently in 1st place with only 3 wins on the season. This is the latest into a season that a division winner has had only 3 wins. So, congrats to Alex Smith, for completing his return to the NFL. Now he’s got the first game out of his system, he can focus on the work of actually turning his team around, and with great young players like Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson in a division as historically bad as the NFC East, no Football Team can be counted out.