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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now more than halfway through the NFL season, and that means we’re heading into the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. These games are going to start to feel more important each week if you’re jockeying for playoff position. It’ll get more important to make the right calls in your lineup each week, and that starts with the Thursday night game. This week’s Thursday night game should actually be a good one, but we were saying the same thing about the Saints vs. Bucs game before it started Sunday night. We’ll see how this one plays out. I’ll be back with a full Rookie Report for week 10 before Sunday, but here is a look at what to expect from the notable rookies tonight

Borderline Rookies:

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 10: @Ten.): It has been a trying couple weeks for folks with Jonathan Taylor on their fantasy teams. He’s played fewer than 40% of the offensive snaps in 2 consecutive weeks and was out-touched and out-gained by Jordan Wilkins in each week. Both weeks Head Coach Frank Reich had a different excuse for why Taylor was phased out of the game in the 2^nd half. Two weeks ago against the Lions it was an undisclosed injury. Last week Reich claimed negative game-script was the reason, but it seems clear that Taylor’s grasp on the starting gig is tenuous at best right now. With that said, he does have the opportunity to post a nice game this week. The Titans allow the 8^th-most RB points per game, and despite his limited usage last week Taylor still got the ball at the goal line and scored a touchdown. I would expect there to continue to be a bit of a 3-way split in this backfield with Wilkins & Nyheim Hines, but if Taylor manages to get the hot hand early, a strong RB2 day isn’t out of the question. I’d rather make a bet on Taylor than most other committee backs this week (Browns’ RBs not included).

Rookies to Sit:

K Rodrigo Blankenship, IND (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Hot Rod has run cold of late, scoring just 8 total fantasy points in the last 2 weeks, and that’s if your league didn’t penalize you for the two missed extra points against the Lions. This week he faces off with the Titans, who are much more likely to give up touchdowns than field goals. Tennessee has only given up multiple field goals in a game once this season, and in that game they allowed just 2 of them. They’ve given up just 2 kicks all year from 40+ yards, and they allow the 4^th-fewest kicker fantasy points per game. If you have Blankenship as your kicker in a season-long league, it may be wise to look into streaming someone else this week, and he shouldn’t be a target in showdown DFS slates for Thursday night.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Pittman turned in a nice performance last Sunday with TY Hilton sidelined. He finished with 4 catches for 57 yards on 7 targets against a pretty good Ravens’ secondary. This week he gets to face off with a much more vulnerable Titans defense. Tennessee has been very vulnerable to opposing receivers, allowing the 4^th-most points per game to the position and 5+ catches to 13 different wide receivers in the past 5 weeks. Only Darnell Mooney last weekend had fewer than 50 yards to go with the 5 catches among that baker’s dozen. TY Hilton should return this week, so the depth chart gets a little more crowded, but aside from Hilton I think Pittman is the guy that has the best chance at topping those 5/50 marks. Keep a close eye on the updates here to make sure they don’t come out and say that Pittman won’t start in 3-WR sets, but I think there is a great chance for the rookie to set new season highs in both catches and yards on Thursday night. He’s an interesting option in deeper leagues, and will cost a reasonable $4,400 for the Thursday night showdown slate on DraftKings, less than 3 other Colt WRs (Hilton, Zach Pascal, and Marcus Johnson).

That’s all I’ve got for the Thursday night game. Hopefully it helps you figure out what to do with these guys. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

We’re now through 10 weeks of the NFL season and if your team resembles the one that you drafted, then count yourself among the lucky few. For the rest of us, swapping players out due to ineffectiveness and injury is the only way to fill out the roster. Tonight we’ll look at several players who are being moved up the depth chart to replaced players who have been injured and will be out several weeks, or players who are just ineffective, or both!

Duke Johnson (RB-HOU) – David Johnson was put on the IR before last week’s game, paving the way for Duke Johnson (no relation) to take over the backfield. Unfortunately for Duke, his team could only muster 7 points and he did not do much with his 14 carries. Going forward for at least the next couple of weeks, I do expect Duke’s usage to remain a consistent 15-20 touches per week. This season he is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, down from last year’s 4.9 and his career average of 4.3. David Johnson was only averaging 4.0 yards per carry this season anyways, so it’s not like he was lighting up the world. While David is out, Duke’s only real challenge to carries will come from Deshaun Watson, who has 25 carries over the last 3 weeks. Getting Duke in the lineup next week against the Patriots isn’t a bad idea, and getting him in the following week against the Lions is essential. After that, they play Indy twice, separated by a game in Chicago, so you’re going to want to look elsewhere until his week 16 matchup against Cincy.

Giovani Bernard (RB-CIN) – Joe Mixon has now missed 3 straight games with his foot injury, suffered against the Colts back in week 6. Each week we get the standard ‘Mixon didn’t practice’ blurb from all the Bengals beat reporters. Zac Taylor has been cautious in general about injuries on the team, bringing people like A.J. Green and Geno Atkins back up to speed slowly, and I expect more of the same here. As of today, Mixon is not practicing or even out on the rehab field – makes me wonder if he’s headed for the IR since the Bengals are way out of the playoff picture and they just signed him to a large extension. Fine for dynasty squads, not so great for your redraft league where you most likely selected Mixon as a top-10 RB. Meanwhile, Giovani Bernard has been the 10^th highest scoring RB in half-PPR from weeks 7-10, and that is including the Bengals’ week 9 bye week where he was just playing Madden and smokin’ a joint. Shhh… don’t tell anyone I told you. Washington is middle of the road against RBs, but Bernard is a multi-faceted threat on a team that is going to dump off to him more than normal. He can be started with confidence this week. The issues here to worry about, of course, are Joe Mixon coming back this week, or even soon, which seems unlikely according to my magic-8-ball, and also 2^nd year RB Trayveon Williams capturing some of Bernard’s work. Williams was able to turn 5 rushes into 22 yards against the Steelers in week 10 and looked fresh out there. He should, those are first 5 carries he’s ever had in the NFL since he sustained a foot injury in a 2019 preseason game. Woohoo!

Salvon Ahmed (RB-MIA) – Salvon Ahmed has only appeared in 2 NFL games in his career. Last week, and Week 9 in Arizona. Last week he did see a healthy 21 carry game, turning it into 85 yards and a touchdown. Ahmed finds himself atop a depth chart that features an injured Matt Breida, a useless DeAndre Washington, and Patrick Laird, who hasn’t even been in on 20% of Miami’s snaps in a single game this season. Couple that with Jordan Howard being cut, and apparently Salvon Ahmed is second UDFA in Florida to be given the top spot of a backfield. He should be featured heavily in most games for now, considering a frequent run game is always a good compliment to a rookie QB. Ahmed may need to fight for carries with Myles Gaskin when he returns from IR and Matt Breida if he ever finds his way back into the lineup. Until then, Ahmed is the first option in the running game on the team, and could retain that spot with another strong performance this week against Denver, who gave up 20+ points to 2 different backs on the Raiders last week.

Michael Pittman (WR-IND) – Who’s the WR1 on the Colts? Because you would think it was T.Y. Hilton. And that’s what his grandma thought before the season started as well, but it looks like 2^nd round rookie Michael Pittman is making a good case for the job. Last week he caught 7 of 8 targets for 101 yards and rushed once for 21 yards. Meanwhile, Hilton has yet to break 70 yards or score a TD in any game so far this year. Yikes. After being drafted this year, experts (myself included) had Pittman behind both Hilton and 2019 2^nd rounder Parris Campbell, who injured his PCL in week 2 and may be back later this season but has yet to practice. Since Hilton has underperformed and Campbell has been unavailable, I think it’s time to call Pittman a surprise WR1 who should enjoy the lion’s share of targets going forward. I don’t see Zach Pascal as competition here, and the only 40% owned (in Fleaflicker) Pittman is a steal right now that could help you win the ‘ship.

Jameis Winston (QB-NO) – Last week Drew Brees went down, and he went down very hard. Brees looked every bit his age when he was sacked on a play that ultimately fractured several ribs and collapsed his lung. Brees will be out, conservatively, for a few weeks, and possibly for the rest of the regular season. This leads us to examine the Saints interesting QB group. Everybody knows about their favorite gadget player, Taysom Hill, but Hill does not seem to be in line to start and play every snap at QB considering he did not do so last year. When Brees went down in 2019, it was Teddy Bridgewater, and not Hill, who started 5 games in Brees’s absence.  This time around, I expect that replacement to be Jameis Winston. Right now, the Saints need to jumpstart their downfield passing game, and Winston is the perfect QB to do that. Last week, Winston was just getting his feet under him, going 6 for 10 for 63 yards, but I expect last year’s passing yardage leader to do a lot more than that against the Falcons next week. Sure it’s partly because Winston is actually an NFL QB and Taysom Hill is still just a gadget player, but I also like the fact that the Falcons are giving up the most points to opposing QBs. Their opponent the following week, Denver, is nothing special against the pass, and then they get the Falcons again in Week 13. If you’re a QB streamer, or in a 2 QB league, then Jameis Winston should be in your starting lineup this week. Now, you just need to pay attention to the news in case the Saints throw in the towel on the year and start Hill.

Jakeem Grant (WR-MIA) – Preston Williams suffered a knee injury in week 9 against the Cardinals and was put on IR. Granted, Williams wasn’t providing earth-shaking production at the position, but he has scored 4 TDs and has been an integral part of the Dolphins’ passing attack throughout the season. With Tua Tagovailoa taking over under center the offense has looked different, and as we know about the ascent of rookie QBs from over the years, they can change the whole look of the offense. Jakeem Grant came in as a new cog and immediately caught 4 of 5 targets for 43-yards and a TD against the Chargers. The speedy WR ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and is exactly the kind of big play receiver that Tua needs to continue his march toward the playoffs this year. While the Dolphins did just sign former Browns’ WR Antonio Callaway to the roster, he has yet to record any fantasy points this year and it wouldn’t be a surprise for him to now be behind a Grant that is quickly building chemistry with Tua.

Kalen Ballage (RB-LAC) – Cut from the Jets in October and picked up on the Chargers practice squad, Kalen Ballage has suddenly found himself with lots to do over the last two weeks due to the Chargers depleted backfield. In the last 2 games, he has received 33 carries and 9 targets. In week 10, he ran 22 pass routes and was in on 73% of the offensive snaps. Ballage isn’t terribly efficient right now, but he does have 186 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown over those two games. It appears that he is in line to be the Chargers workhorse back for as long as Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler are out. Jackson was just put on IR before last week’s game, so he will be out at least 2 more games. Joshua Kelley doesn’t seem to be a danger to take carries from anyone, and Austin Ekeler can only tell us “the time draws near”, as if he and Frodo are approaching Mordor. Troymaine Pope may be the best bet to take carries from Ballage, but Pope missed the last game with a concussion. The only thing that is certain is that the Chargers backfield is a mess.

Keelan Cole (WR-JAC) – Just a few years ago, Cole appeared to be the WR to own for the future of the Jaguars’ offense. Him and Blake Bortles were good buddies, going for 748 yards and 3 TDs in 2017 when he was an UDFA. But we haven’t heard from him since them. We have been hearing about guys like D.J. Chark and newly drafted rookie Laviska Shenault. Shenault has admittedly had a great start to the season, but after Gardner Minshew was injured and benched in favor of Jake Luton, Shenault had less success and then was taken out of the game with a hamstring injury in week 9. New QBs often result in chemistry and connections with new WRs, as we know, and in this case it looks like Keelan Cole is back in action, having been targeted 7 times in last week’s matchup against the Packers and coming down with 5 receptions for 47 yards and 1 TD. We’ll see if Luton remains under center for the rest of the season, but as long as he does it looks like Chark and Cole will be the targets of choice.