The 3rd year wide receiver theory has been a staple for fantasy football fans year after year. The theory is based on the idea that wide receivers take at least 2 years to fully develop at the NFL level. Players like Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Roddy White and Sidney Rice all had breakout years in their 3rd season. Players and coaches alike all agree that this is no fluke due to the learning curve associated at the wide receiver position between college and the pros. The 2014 season promises to be one of the best wide receiver break-out seasons, if tradition holds true. The 2012 wide receiver draft class was stacked with talent. That leads us to our list of 3rd year wide receivers to keep an eye and target for your upcoming draft.
Jeffery's sophomore year flew in the face of the 3rd year theory. He combined with Brandon Marshall to create the best wide receiver duo in the league under the first year of Marc Trestman's tenure as head coach. The Bears offense is only going to improve with more practice and time in the same system. Last season Alshon Jeffery showed off a skill set including crisp route running, strong hands and a highlight reel circus catches. While his 2nd season was his break out season, the 3rd year theory is still very much alive for Jeffery. He now has 2 season of experience under his belt and a full off-season of training to build on in 2014. Alshon Jeffery won't make it out of the third round in most leagues.
Floyd is the perfect candidate for the 3rd year theory. He made great strides last year while breaking the 1,000 yard mark, but fantasy owners would like to see a guy get in the end zone a little bit more. At the beginning of the 2014 regular season Larry Fitzgerald will be 31 years old and entering his 11th season. Fitzgerald didn't have a bad year last season, especially with 10 TD's, but his age is a concern. Michael Floyd stepping up last season just set the table for a break out 2014 season. Carson Palmer is going to lean heavily on the younger wide receiver after a successful 2013. As of right now Michael Floyd is an amazing value pick with an ADP of 62nd. That probably won't hold up as he continues to impress throughout the preseason, but I still expect him to be a value pick in the 5th round.
Wright is another 3rd year wide receiver who showed break out talent in his 2nd year. Where I expect to see Kendall Wright achieve official break out status is in the end zone this year. His 94 receptions last year make him an obvious choice in PPR leagues, but no matter what format you draft in you are going to want to pay attention to him. At 5'10" he is a little shorter than you would want in a wide receiver but he makes up for it by catching everything. Tennessee has no other clear cut star offensive weapon except for Kendall Wright. He is currently ranked 69th overall and early drafters are getting a lot of value with his 86th ADP.
Randle was most likely everyone's least favorite waiver pickup last season after having a strong 3 games in October before finishing the season in lackluster fashion. This season Randle is on my radar as the Giants look to find a replacement for Hakeem Nicks. Randle is a tall, well-built wide receiver with all the tools to break out in 2014. He is going to see more play time this season as the #2 on the Giants offense and I expect him to be Eli's favorite receiver in the red zone. Don't let the shaky 2013 Giant offense scare you. We saw this once before and they bounced back to a Super Bowl win. Randle is currently ranked 92nd overall with an ADP of 124th. I believe his money spot in value is somewhere in-between those two numbers right now, but that could change as we see more of him in the preseason.
Boykin had a handful of impressive games last season. He is the first guy on this list to not be a number one or number two receiver for his team, but don't let that stop you from drafting some great value on your team this year. The Green Bay offense is built around Aaron Rodgers and he likes to distribute the ball to keep defenses guessing. You will have to keep an eye on the Packers at camp to see what is going on with the number three position, but I feel that Jarrett Boykin earned his opportunity last season. Boykin is a great addition to any team especially with his current rank to ADP differential.
Streater is currently listed on the Oakland depth chart as the number two receiver with Andre Holmes. The situation in Oakland is interesting and fantasy players are going to want to keep an eye on things on the left coast if you plan on drafting a Raider. Holmes and Streater are likely to be the guys in my opinion. Streater is primed for a break out year as he has shown good improvement in each of his previous two seasons. The Raiders also upgraded their quarterback position by signing Matt Schaub. Streater is currently ranked 163rd with an ADP of 237th. You can take a flier on Streater late if you have the adequate depth at your other positions, but chances are he will go undrafted in many leagues. I recommend you keep an eye on him as one of your waiver wire targets. He could prove very valuable once we all see what Oakland's offense is going to look like.
With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford, Jamaal Charles and the game's other bigger names. However, it’s the tougher choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.
Here are a few names you might want to consider:
Ben Roethlisberger QB Pittsburgh – Big Ben and Antonio Brown have been hooking up like nobody’s business in the first few games of the 2014 season. That should continue in Week 5. This should be another big week for the Pittsburgh tandem as they hit the road to take on Jacksonville – a team that sits on the bottom against the pass. Rookie wide receiver Markus Wheaton has also begun to make his presence known giving Roethlisberger yet another speedy target. Roethlisberger is off to one of the best starts in his career already having 6 touchdown passes and nearly 1,100 passing yards in just four games. Ride with Ben as your QB1 this week and don’t look back.
Justin Forsett RB Baltimore – This week’s matchup at Indianapolis could be a decent one for Forsett. Although Bernard Pierce could be in the picture, Forsett has been the most productive and versatile runningback in Baltimore’s backfield. Last week Forsett averaged over 4.5 yards gaining 66 yards on 14 carries and also scored a touchdown against Carolina and is averaging just under 5 yards per carry in four games so far this year. Coach Harbaugh cannot ignore Forsett’s early season success and should move forward with him as his featured back whether Pierce plays or not. Forsett should get some scoring chances making him a good gamble as a RB2 this week.
Bishop Sankey RB Tennessee – Bishop Sankey is emerging as the clear cut featured runningback as most predicted he would after the first few games. Coach Ken Whisenhunt thought Sankey’s footwork wasn’t quite there a couple weeks ago but much changed a week later and the rookie back is now slated for more carries – and against a bad Cleveland run defense. Riding high after his first career touchdown last week against Indianapolis, Sankey will certainly have his sights on the endzone at home against Cleveland this week. Sankey should be looked at as a solid RB2 for Week 5.
Michael Floyd WR Arizona – It looks like Drew Stanton could be Arizona’s quarterback for the foreseeable future and though that will undoubtedly be a hit to Floyd’s overall value, he should still be a decent contributor when he takes to the road in a matchup against the high-flying Broncos. Stanton might not have Palmer’s accuracy but he does target Floyd enough to make things happen. In Week 3 Floyd got 9 targets and went off for 114 yards against a tough San Francisco defense. Stanton’s security blanket should be a good bet to top the 100-yard mark again this week and is a good bet to nab his first touchdown of the year. Maybe Palmer’s absence will pay off as Stanton probably won’t spread the ball around as much. Start Floyd with confidence as a WR2.
Roddy White WR Atlanta – White was targeted a whopping 14 times last week against Minnesota but only managed four catches. Still, it was good enough for 73 receiving yards and a touchdown grab. Though the catches don’t indicate it, the targets certainly show Matt Ryan has a renewed faith in his former number one receiver. I fully expect a shootout this week when Atlanta goes to New York to take on the Giants and White should find himself right in the middle of the action. Julio Jones has a funky ankle, which if still affected by game time could make White an even more enticing start. White enters Week 5 as a high end WR2 or low end WR1 – however you want to look at it.
Garrett Graham TE Houston – Garrett Graham was supposed to move into a bigger role with the departure of fellow tightend Owen Daniels. But a back issue has kept him out of the season opener and he hasn’t exactly taken off since his return. Still, Graham has all kinds of potential to shine in Week 5’s matchup against Dallas, a team that has given up the most points to tightends this season. Starting Graham is a stretch in leagues that start one tightend, but not the worst play in the world. In leagues that start two tightends Graham is definitely worth a shot as he should get a handful of catches, decent yards and is always an endzone threat.