Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Week 5 is in the books, and we hope your fantasy teams had a great outcome! There were the usual groupings of injuries (Dak Prescott), disappointments (Devin Singletary), and surprises (Chase Claypool), but there is always some secret sauce (spoiler alert: it's almost always thousand island) if you pay attention to the ebb & flow of each week and read in between the lines. Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Devin Singletary, Mecole Hardman, Austin Hooper, and Miami Dolphins (DST).

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Week 10, already? Listen up, that only leaves us with 4 weeks to get your team into tip-top shape for the fantasy playoffs in most leagues. Pay special attention to the rankings and news this week as you may be picking up guys that will help you on the road to the championship trophy. Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Drew Brees, David Johnson (if he can get cleared in time), D.J. Chark, Jonnu Smith, and Miami Dolphins DST.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

New England Patriots

What’s changed since last year? With superstar TE Rob Gronkowski retired (for now, anyway) along with the departure of former Colts TE Dwayne Allen, the Patriots needed depth at the Tight End position and signed former Bronco Matt LaCosse, and the aging Ben Watson (who played with the Pats / Brady from 2004-2009). While not much has changed with the RBs besides adding third-round rookie Damien Harris to push Sony Michel, the Pats are throwing WRs against the wall this year to see what sticks. New additions include N’Keal Harry (rookie), Jakobi Meyers (UDFA), former Redskin Maurice Harris, and former Bear/Saint Cameron Meredith.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Beat reporters have continued to espouse praise on UDFA Jakobi Meyers, but it’s too early to put a stamp on him as anything other than camp hype. The most likely breakout WR on the team currently is a toss-up between Phillip Dorsett (5^th year) or Maurice Harris (4^th year). Dorsett plays more outside snaps than Harris, but Harris has drawn the attention of coaches as of late due to his big body (6’3”, 205 lbs). I think it’s likely that Dorsett has the edge currently due to his speed and draft pedigree (4.33 40-time, 2015 1^st rounder).

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Again, I like Phillip Dorsett here, he is currently not being drafted in fantasy leagues with an aggregate ADP of 300 (WR100), but if you follow the money he was given a $500K bonus this offseason, which is more than Inman, Thomas, Harris, Davis, and Meyers, and with Josh Gordon out of the lineup, Dorsett was playing at a WR3/4 pace with 60% more targets than he had otherwise. Contingent on a few variables, Dorsett could be a steal in the last round of your fantasy draft.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? With the departure of Rob Gronkowski, it’s a little tougher to find the every-game studs on this offense, but that title here clearly lies between Julian Edelman (ADP 43, WR16) and Sony Michel (ADP 52, RB25). Edelman finished as a WR2 or better in 75% of his games last year and should continue to be Brady’s favorite target. Michel has been great, but there are concerns with his knee, third-round rookie Damien Harris, and the other RBs (James White, Rex Burkhead, etc) taking away work. Bottom line: Edelman will still be very attractive in PPR leagues but looking at their overall possible fantasy values for 2019 I’d go Michel by a hair.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? I can see UDFA Damien Harris being drafted (currently 12^th round ADP in standard leagues), but then dropped when Sony Michel dominates the short yardage and goal-line work on the field. Injuries happen often at the RB position though, and if Michel’s knee acts up or he gets injured in another way on the field, Harris should be the guy that gets the nod. Similarly, if Julian Edelman is unable to play all 16 games, Maurice Harris will be a popular one.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? N’Keal Harry was the #32 pick overall in the 2019 NFL rookie draft but is still having some mental issues in camp (not surprising in Belichick’s offense). UDFA Jakobi Meyers is enjoying a ton of hype right now but the WR corps are crowded this year and the veterans will likely retain the starting slots as we get closer to the regular season. Damien Harris was drafted early to get some work, but the only likely regular rookie starter for the Patriots this year is Harry – he was drafted to play right away.

Miami Dolphins

What’s changed since last year? The Dolphins tried to be a good team over the past several years – they really did! But after little to no success, they are finally entering a rebuilding phase. Jettisoning Ryan Tannehill, Miami picked up both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen to head up the offense, and recently acquired Allen Hurns from the Cowboys. They drafted some RB depth in Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin, and picked up Dwayne Allen to help out at TE.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Former Chief Albert Wilson (WR69) may fit the breakout WR role this year, as he was on his way to doing just that in 2018 before going down with a season-ending hip injury. In the 7 games he played last year, he recorded the best YAC per reception (13.3) of any WR with at least 35 targets. The 2^nd best was 7.9, which shows just how elusive and high-level he was playing at. He’s also #1 over the last 2 seasons for forced missed tackle per reception rate out of any receivers with a minimum of 25 receptions. He was trending toward a stat line of 50+ receptions for 800+ yards and 8+ TDs before going down.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Jakeem Grant (WR138) is a name to remember as a sleeper, he’s a 4^th year WR for the Dolphins that started as primarily a KR/PR specialist with breakaway speed, but they asked him to learn to be an outside receiver in 2017. He suffered an Achilles injury which ended his 2018 season, but not before becoming the 2^nd person (after Andre Roberts) in NFL history to catch a TD pass and return both a kick and a punt for TDs.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Dolphins offense does not contain any studs (which I would qualify as an approximately top-20 player at their respective position), but the closest would likely be Kenyan Drake (RB26), who scored 9 TDs last year and excels as a pass-catching RB. The issue there is the possibility of Kalen Ballage (RB45) cutting into his workload, and the uncertainty of a new coaching staff’s choices with their playmakers.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Kenny Stills (WR62) could be a monster if we get a lot of deep balls in games coming from behind this year. His ADP has him being drafted in the 19^th round, which means that quite a few leagues will still have him on the waiver wire. Here is a guy who has demonstrated solid WR2/3 seasons in the past and he could have one again. Fitzmagic, anyone?

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Both Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin were drafted for RB depth and shouldn’t provide real fantasy value this season – but watch out for UDFA Preston Williams, a 6’4”, 211 lb. receiver who has already been impressing this preseason. Note: he was forced out of his college career at Tennessee due to a domestic violence arrest.

Buffalo Bills

What’s changed since last year? The Bills need to continue building around 2^nd year QB Josh Allen, and they did that in the offseason by signing WRs John Brown and Cole Beasley, TE Tyler Kroft, and RBs Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon. They also drafted third-round rookie RB Devin Singletary, to add some youth to the RB room.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? A true 3^rd year breakout candidate, Zay Jones (ADP200, WR66) was picked by the Bills in the 2^nd round of the 2017 draft, and has steadily improved his production since then. More than doubling his output from his rookie year, 2018 (and new QB Josh Allen) saw Jones’ stats rise to 56 receptions for 652 yards and 7 TDs. Adding John Brown should help take some pressure off of Jones and allow for him to emerge as the #1 WR for an up and coming Bills team and a WR 2/3 in fantasy.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? This really shouldn’t be the case, as John Brown (ADP 167, WR59) has had terrific seasons in the past with the Cardinals, and more than a few good games with the Ravens (before Lamar Jackson took over for Flacco and passing went out the window), but Brown can and should excel as a deep threat on the Bills with QB Josh Allen. His current ADP leaves him as undrafted in some leagues, but he has plenty of spark left, especially with Allen’s deep ball being one of the best in the league.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? No studs to find here just yet, the highest drafted player in standard leagues on the Bills is LeSean McCoy (ADP 101, RB40). Younger talent is developing but needs more time to marinate!

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Look no further than the Bills’ RBs: LeSean McCoy had only 3.2 YPC last year, and Frank Gore just turned 36. Happy Birthday, Frank.. time to consider retirement, maybe? Third-round pick Devin Singletary (ADP 142, RB53) crushed it in College last year (FAU, 33 TDs, over 2000 yards from scrimmage), and he has the goods to push for the starting job in Buffalo. He was clearly drafted to take over the reins. There is certainly a scenario where the aging McCoy and Gore keep the job, but I think Singletary has a good chance to finish the season as the starting Bills RB.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Already mentioned was Devin Singletary, and fellow rookie Dawson Knox could provide some value at TE, but is not a recommendation for anything but dynasty leagues at this point.

New York Jets

What’s changed since last year? Well.. let’s start with Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder as the most impactful offseason adds – the Jets also brought in Ty Montgomery and Ryan Griffin for offensive depth (and in Giffin’s case, at least some games as the starter while Chris Herndon is suspended for 4 games).

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? He’s had some good years already, but in 2019, 4^th year WR Robby Anderson (ADP 74, WR29) may be primed to be a top 10-15 receiver in the league. Robby is not a smart man based on his constant brush-ins with the law, but he is one of the best downfield receivers out there. In fact, he was the #2 WR in the entire league over weeks 14-16, only behind DeAndre Hopkins. Over that span, he put up an average of 20+ fantasy points per game. Adding in Le’Veon Bell as an additional threat should only give Anderson more opportunities to get open in this offense.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Take a look at Jamison Crowder (ADP 213, WR71). Crowder has showcased his talents in the slot while on the Redskins (averaged 100+ targets and 66+ receptions over the 2016 and 2017 seasons), and now steps into the Jarvis Landry role with Adam Gase as the new head coach of the Jets. If he can avoid major injuries, Crowder will find a lot of success in this surging Jets’ offense pairing up with Sam Darnold. In 2017, Crowder was the WR41 in standard and WR33 in PPR leagues. He is a great speculative pickup in the late rounds of this year’s draft for a WR4/5.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? No question here, Le’Veon Bell (ADP 7, RB6)  will dominate touches in the backfield – the Jets are paying him to do so, and he still has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Chris Herndon (ADP 201, TE23) is suspended for 4 games to start the season because of his DUI arrest last June. Because of this, he likely won’t be drafted in most fantasy leagues without deep rosters, but he is definitely someone to look at acquiring in late rounds or before his suspension ends. In 2018, Herndon finished at the TE15 in standard leagues as a rookie and he played several games in TE1 territory.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Jets drafted Trevon Wesco as TE depth, but he will not likely have any fantasy relevance. Quinnen Williams was the #3 overall pick but won’t be much help to the offense as a Defensive Lineman!­­

With the NFL season yet to see a significant upset, there still remains 1065 of the 1499 members surviving in the pool. Last week we just squeaked out a victory when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Miami Dolphins 31-6.

I think I am seeing a trend developing here, and will be picking the San Diego Chargers of Los Angeles to defeat the woeful Dolphins this week. Hey, if it were not for teams playing divisional opponents twice a year, you could pick against Miami every week and you'd be right. This game checks off a couple boxes for me, resulting in the pick.

First, the Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week at -14.5, which they will cover. You also have a desperate Charger team that has let two games slip away that they should have won. Much like the Eagles last night, the Chargers will be heavily motivated for a good showing for fear of falling to 1-3 and getting left in the dust of the Chiefs who are looking to go 4-0.

Philip Rivers has too much pride to be part of the franchise that loses to two 1-15 teams in his career and will look to reignite the Charger Super Bowl hype. Lucky for me, this will be one of the local games for the San Diego market so I will get to witness first hand just how bad the Dolphins are.

Godspeed Mr. Rosen.