Yeah, that's right. The Situation Room. Welcome to Week 1 of the 2019 Fantasy Football season.. no more preseason games that don't count toward winning that big, bad championship trophy. Tonight we'll discuss situations to monitor (positional battles, contract holdouts, etc) this week as we head into the first games of the season, as well as waiver wire pickups if applicable, and players that jump out at us according to our rankings.
Can you guess the musical theme for this podcast? Contact us via email with your guess and we'll send a prize out to the first person to guess correctly. Cheers! Feel free to consult This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or ask us your lineup questions @drinkfive on Twitter. Best of luck going forward!
Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line, 9/5/2019: Week 1 Preview: The Situation Room
Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes to get notifications whenever we release a new episode. We also broadcast the shows live at http://www.mixlr.com/drinkfive on Wednesday nights. Feel free to browse over and join in the discussion in the chat room!
Week 15 played host to many more high profile injuries than fantasy players are comfortable with. Good luck going into Championship Week - hopefully there aren't too many names on this list that are also on your roster.
Marcus Mariota went down this week in New England and was replaced by Zach Mettenberger, who had 242 yds with 2 TD and 2 INT, not terrible, but mostly garbage points. There's been conflicting reports as to whether or not he will play the rest of the season. He has been ruled out this week, so his fantasy relevance is over this year. He should be a QB2 in 2016.
T.J. Yates tore his ACL on a non contact play, something we've become quite familiar with this year. With Yates on the IR Brian Hoyer is still not likely to return, Brandon Weeden has suddenly become the man in Houston. Weeden, who got cut from a 2-win team, now finds himself starting for a 7-7 team that is leading its division. Oh, what a change.
LeSean McCoy has been diagnosed with a torn MCL and won't be playing in week 16. It's irrelevant to us if he comes back week 17, really, so look for Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee to share carries, yay. Another split backfield means you might want to look elsewhere for a fill-in for McCoy.
Melvin Gordon has been disappointing all season, and now he's finally out for the season. He'll return next year with a lot of things different, probably a new coach, city and hopefully some more offensive talent around him. Danny Woodhead, who had an amazing four TD's last week, will be filling in with an increased role and will be an RB2/Flex for Thursday's game against Oakland.
Danny Amendola disappointed anyone who started him in Week 15, by fumbling the ball and promptly exiting the game, leaving us with negative points. It looks like he'll be out until the playoffs arrive. Owners who held on to Julian Edelman might see him return to your lineup in Week 16, so keep an eye on the injury reports, and get him in your lineups if he's playing. Brady has been starving for his slot receiver, and Edelman should produce well as soon as he returns.
Alshon Jeffery's injury status is top secret info here in Chicago, so we'll learn a little bit more on Wednesday. What we do know is that he left Sunday's game after his hamstring "tightened up a little bit". It's hard to tell what his status will be before Sunday, I just wouldn't recommend any other Bears WR's as a replacement for Jeffery, though Zach Miller could see a small bump in targets.
Tyrann Mathieu is done for the season after tearing his ACL, and this is definitely a big loss for the Cardinals defense. If you've been riding them all year, they have been great for you, but you might consider another pickup if something good is available. They are playing A.J. McCarron, so that's a plus, but there's still a lot of talent on the Bengals offense.
Almost Injured...
Brock Osweiler briefly left Sunday's game when he tweaked a non-throwing shoulder, but did return to finish the game, though he did not put up any points in the second half. Osweiler has been little help when it comes to winning games in Denver, so if Peyton Manning can go Week 16, the Broncos would do well to put him back in and bet on the vet to take them the rest of the way.
Adrian Peterson had an ankle sprain on Sunday, but wound up returning in the second half. This week, he'll be all systems go against a weak Giants run defense.
A.J. Green left the game in San Fran in the third quarter and didn't return, but that probably has something to do with the 24-0 score. Green did only have one catch in the game, and this is worrisome considering he has McCarron throwing him the ball. This week, they play Denver, so keep an eye on this tough matchup and his injury status.
Ted Ginn Jr. is another guy who left his game early, but he had the courtesy of putting up two touchdowns first. Ginn did return late in the game, showing that Carolina was just holding him back to be cautious. He'll be ready to go in Week 16 and has a hell of an upside.
One of our newest segments on the podcast is Pick Your Poison, where Dave, Jason and a guest pick between two close players based on the drinkfive.com player rankings. This week we were joined by site contributor Mike Mocerino. Our choices will be listed below each of the matchups. Let us know in the comments which players you would pick!
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (#6) @ PHI or Drew Brees (#7) @ TEN
Dak Prescott was limited in practice on Wednesday for the first time in his career. This really isn’t significant for his matchup, I just thought it was an interesting tidbit to illustrate his durability. Don’t worry about Prescott’s availability for Sunday – he has a decent matchup. The Eagles are somehow giving up the 19th most points to opposing QBs, while giving up the 3rd most points to opposing WRs. Regardless of any anomalies you may find with Prescott, he should be in shape to have a very high floor this week against the Eagles.
Last week Drew Brees broke two impressive records, the all-time TD record and the single game completion percentage. What does he do for an encore? I suspect he’s going to throw the ball to Michael Thomas an awful lot. The Titans are giving up the 18th most points to opposing QBs, and have only surrendered more than 22 points to one player all year, Patrick Mahomes. Brees has 9 TDs in his last 2 games, and 16 in his last 5 – I expect him to continue to ride high going into the playoffs, though his ceiling in this game is probably a little lower than the last 2 weeks.
Mike: Drew Brees, Dave: Dak Prescott, Jason: Drew Brees
Matt Ryan (#11) vs JAX or Ryan Fitzpatrick (#12) vs CIN
Ryan gets the struggling Jaguars at home, a team that gives up the 11th most points to opposing QBs. Last week he targeted Julio Jones a whopping 20 times, and if he wants to win this completely meaningless game, then he might as well target him another 20 times. The Jaguars have given up big games to Rivers, Mahomes and Tannehill this year, and have recently kept Winston to under 11 points, so they’re kind of all over the place. Matt Ryan has a range of just 18.5-21.3 over his last 3 games, and has not put up a really big game since he went down with an injury in week 7.
Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball an awful lot this year, with at least 37 attempts each of the last 5 weeks. He has 2 games with no TDs in that span, however he did manage to rush for 65 yards in one of those. Regardless, they were against tough defenses, Buffalo and the Jets – his opponent on Sunday, the Bengals, are definitely not that. They are giving up the 9th most points to opposing QBs. They have given up 7 games of 20 points or more this season, including Lamar Jackson’s 2-30 point games. I expect Fitzpatrick to throw the ball a ton – he’s averaging 38 attempts per game since week 7 and he’s the QB7 over the last 4 weeks.
Mike: Matt Ryan, Dave: Matt Ryan, Jason: Matt Ryan
RB
Melvin Gordon (#17) or OAK or Devin Singletary (#18) @ NE
Melvin Gordon’s snap share has dipped lately, hitting a season low of 40% last week after a high water mark of 65% just a few weeks prior. Gordon also carried the ball only 7 times, the fewest he’s seen all year. The one bright spot is that he’s had 5 receptions in each of the last 2 games, and that’s his high on the season. He’ll be facing Oakland, who give up the 13th most points to opposing RBs, though they did surrender 19.3 to Gordon when they played back in week 10.
Devin Singletary, aka the TRUTH, has been used a lot more on the Bills. He’s seeing a 70+% snap share every week since week 11, after having a max of 68% before that. He’s got almost 18 carries per game over that time period as well and is the RB18 over the last 4 weeks. Singletary has good volume that you can chase, however his biggest problem is his opponent this week, the Patriots. New England is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing RBs, though last week Joe Mixon set a season high mark against them of 15.6 points.
Mike: Mike Singletary, Dave: Melvin Gordon, Jason: Melvin Gordon
Le’Veon Bell (#24) vs PIT or Raheem Mostert (#25) vs LAR
There’s been lots of flippant talk of #RevengeGame(s) this year, but this one could be real. Bell will face his former team, and probably better for him that this is in New York (Jersey) rather than Pittsburgh. Bell has struggled both on and off the field with his team lately, but he needs to have an impressive showing in order to market himself to a new team for next season. The Steelers are giving up the 6th fewest points to opposing RBs. They have only given up 5 double digit performances all season, and several of those were very flukey, like to David Johnson in week 14, Rashaad Penny in week 2 and Jeff Wilson (the week doesn’t matter there, it’s just an anomaly). Bell still hasn’t broken 100 rushing yards this season, and the Steelers haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher either.
Mostert is the kind of player that you picked up late and probably helped many teams make and win in the playoffs. Last week he disappointed with a 9.9 point performance, but his role on the 49ers should still be pretty safe. The game against the Falcons was something to forget for the Niners, and considering they fumbled the ball 4 times, I don’t expect a repeat. Since Matt Breida had 2 of those fumbles, I don’t see him overtaking Mostert, and Tevin Coleman has very clearly moved from the Guest House to the Dog House, with only 4 carries last week and only 13 touches in the last 3 games. The Rams are giving up the 14th most points to opposing RBs, a number that is skewed by the fact that they gave up 48 points to Zeke and Pollard just last week.
Mike: Raheem Mostert, Dave: Le'Veon Bell, Jason: Le'Veon Bell
WR
Kenny Golladay (#14) @ DEN or Stefon Diggs (#15) vs GB
Kenny Golladay is a very talented receiver, in fact, he broke a record that even Megatron didn’t have – he’s the first Lions receiver to have 1,000 yards in two of his first three seasons. Unfortunately, his QB is David Blough (that name again is David Blough) and that really sucks from a fantasy perspective. Blough has only 3 TDs in his 3 games, but he is throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging about 41 attempts per game (probably because the Lions are always losing). It doesn’t get any easier against Denver this week, who are giving up the 8th fewest points to opposing WRs. The silver lining is that Denver is giving up big numbers to a lot of #1 WRs since Week 11 to guys like Diggs, Hopkins, Hill and Allen.
Speaking of a fellow NFC North wide receiver, Stefon Diggs has not been lighting it up lately, averaging only 7.5 points per game over the last 3 weeks. Diggs has had the volume, with 24 targets over that time, but his matchups have been tough. This week against Green Bay is kind of a middle-of-the-road matchup. They are giving up the 14th fewest points to opposing WRs and held Diggs to 8.9 points back in Week 2. With Adam Thielen returning to the mix, Diggs is a mixed bag and more of a risk to than he was in the middle of the season.
Mike: Kenny Golladay, Dave: Stefon Diggs, Jason: Kenny Golladay
Anthony Miller (#31) vs KC or John Brown (#32) @ NE
Anthony Miller has been lighting it up lately, well, for a Bears WR anyways. Over his last 3 games, he has 42 total points and his target volume has been very high. He saw 13 targets in Wk 13, then just 4 the next week, but scored a TD. Finally he had another 15 targets last week in Green Bay. Over the last 5 weeks, he is averaging over 10 targets per game, so it’s clear that he’s becoming a favorite of Trubisky. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have really fixed their secondary this season and are giving up the 4th fewest points to opposing WRs. Since Week 3, they have only given up 3 double digit performances. The Chiefs are much weaker against the run, though they’re also likely to get out to an early lead, so I do expect the Bears to continue to throw the ball, even against a tough passing D.
John Brown has had a breakout season this year (he was even our sleeper pick on the Bills during the preseason). He’s broken 1,000 yards for the second time in his career, and is easily having the best season of his career, with high marks in receptions, yardage and yards per game with 2 games still left to go. Unfortunately for him this week, he’s going to be shut down by Stefon Gilmore and the Patriots league leading pass defense. They give up the fewest points to opposing WRs by almost 3 points compared to the next team on the list. They’ve only given up 5 double digit performances all year, all of them to guys who scored TDs. They’ve allowed just 3 receiving TDs to WRs, which means that one of those performances contained a rushing TD, and the other contained a passing TD. This defense is really good.
Mike: Anthony Miller, Dave: Anthony Miller, Jason: Anthony Miller
TE
Tyler Higbee (#5) @ SF or Austin Hooper (#6) vs JAX
Higbee has 3 straight 100 yard games over the last 3 weeks, and he’s just been tearing it up since taking over for Gerald Everett. Going in to week 13, Higbee had 884 career yards, and he’s increased that number by 37% since then. He’s already the TE14 on the season, and is the TE4 over the last 4 weeks. Higbee will be facing the 49ers defense, who give up the 2nd fewest points to opposing TEs this season, though in weeks 13 and 14, they gave up big games to both Mark Andrews and Jared Cook.
Austin Hooper was leading all TEs in fantasy scoring when he went down with an injury and sat out Weeks 11-13. He has not produced since coming back, though he’s had 6 targets per game and probably scored a TD last week that was not ruled a TD. This week Hooper faces the Jaguars, who give up the 10th most points to opposing TEs. Just last week they gave up a 10 catch, 122 yard performance to Darren Waller, so I expect that Hooper can get open and go back to his production that he had earlier in the year, especially since Jacksonville is likely to focus on Julio Jones.
Mike: Tyler Higbee, Dave: Tyler Higbee, Jason: Austin Hooper
O.J. Howard (#11) vs HOU or Dallas Goedert (#12) vs DAL
OJ Howard has not been a stellar TE this season, but he’s basically the default #2 target on the Bucs after their WR group has been decimated by injury, with 3 guys going down in the last 2 weeks. Howard has 19 targets in his last 3 games, and that number should just go up this week against Houston. The Texans give up the 6th most points to opposing TEs, including double digit performances each of the last 2 weeks. I expect Howard to be used a lot and Houston will be able to focus on him since there’s not a lot of other options, however Howard is an ok spot start if you’re in a pinch.
Dallas Goedert has been a TD dependent TE on a team that also has a depleted WR group, but he’s way behind Ertz when it comes to a share of the targets. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks, though his high is only 8. Goedert is a high floor, low ceiling type player, just remember that the floor for most TEs is still pretty low. Dallas is giving up the 11th most points to opposing TEs, and just last week got torched for 111 yards by Tyler Higbee. Dallas has given up 5 TDs to TEs this year, and Dallas will have to score a TD against Dallas to make Dallas a good start. Confused yet? Well I’m done, so good luck this week!
Mike: O.J. Howard, Dave: O.J. Howard, Jason: Dallas Goedert
It is that time of year again. The time when fantasy football players start waking up from a long Winter slumber and taking a look at NFL rosters with a mix of surprise, excitement, and terror. In this two-part feature, I will take you on a trip through every team in the NFL to highlight some of the major fantasy-relevant offseason personnel moves. We'll start with the AFC. From Stefon Diggs to Melvin Gordon, quite a few big names have seen changes of scenery this offseason.
New England Patriots: Obviously, Tom Brady skipping town to join the Buccaneers is the big news here, but an arguably more interesting turn of events is that 2nd year QB Jarrett Stidham is now the incumbent starter. The Pats did not select a QB in the draft, but there are a few veterans floating around in free agency: Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, and Blake Bortles among them, but it is not likely that New England moves in that direction. Mohamed Sanu was not cut as some expected, leaving last year’s cast of characters plus recent acquisition from the Chiefs, Damiere Byrd, as well as 2020 draft pick Devin Asiasi as this season’s primary pass-catchers.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills brought in some talent from out of town in Stefon Diggs, a major offensive gain for Josh Allen’s offense. They also let Frank Gore walk in free agency, getting signed by the Jets in what will likely be Gore’s last residency (how many times have we said that before?).
New York Jets: Frank Gore is back together again with Adam Gase to find some way to string together a few more 100-yard games as depth to incumbent RB Le’Veon Bell, and wide receiver Breshad Perriman was signed from the Bucs. This helps, but they will still need more help at the receiver position with Robby Anderson departing.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins acquired RBs Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, and drafted Tua Tagovailoa to be the QB of the future. Maybe it is looking up in Miami?
Baltimore Ravens: Traded TE Hayden Hurst to the Falcons for two draft picks this year, including the 2nd round pick they used to select RB J.K. Dobbins who will be groomed as the feature back in Baltimore. The rest is business as usual for a team that did not need much help on offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The surging Steelers defense can’t win games by itself, and so Pittsburgh added more offensive components to try and compete in 2020, bringing in TE Eric Ebron and drafting both RB Anthony McFarland Jr and WR Chase Claypool as high-upside depth at those positions who will both likely see regular snaps in their rookie years.
Cleveland Browns: Case Keenum was solidified as the Browns’ backup with a three-year contract, and Cleveland signed former Falcons TE Austin Hooper for a stunning $44 million dollar contract with $23 million guaranteed. Good luck, Cleveland – you will need it.
Cincinnati Bengals: Clearly the big conversation centers around #1 draft pick Joe Burrow becoming the new signal caller in Cincinnati. Out with Andy Dalton. The Bengals also drafted a new target in WR Tee Higgins.
Houston Texans: It has been quite the offseason for Bill O’Brien and the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins is now an Arizona Cardinal, and in his place the Texans acquired Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. David Johnson will take over duties as the primary ball carrier from departing free agent RBs Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde.
Tennessee Titans: Delanie Walker and Dion Lewis were cut, carving a more prominent role for incumbent TE Jonnu Smith and the Titans drafted RB Darrynton Evans in order to try and bolster what is a very thing depth chart behind featured running back Derrick Henry. Newly re-signed Ryan Tannehill will try to come close to the high bar he set for himself in the 2019 season.
Indianapolis Colts: Washed up? Ha! The Colts signed Philip Rivers to lead the offense in 2020 for a $25 million price tag. If he fails, they will go right back to Jacoby Brissett. Indianapolis also drafted RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman who should immediately slot into the starting lineup. Should we mention former Bears TE Trey Burton? I guess.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Needing a starting TE, the Jaguars signed former Bengal Tyler Eifert, which will reunite him with OC Jay Gruden in Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew will retain the starting role, although the Jaguars did draft QB Jake Luton but it would be a surprise to see him making starts this season.
Kansas City Chiefs: Fantasy football managers should be excited about the Chiefs drafting RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who will have an immediate role in the offense. Kansas City also acquired TE Ricky Seals-Jones and some made some other depth positional signings, but not much else has changed on offense. Why mess with a good thing, right?
Denver Broncos: Melvin Gordon is now a Bronco, which likely minimizes the fantasy value of Phillip Lindsay and relegates Royce Freeman to a backup role. Starting QB Drew Lock got some new toys in the draft in WRs Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The Broncos have very little excuse not to improve on their 7-9 record from 2019.
Las Vegas Raiders: It is going to be tough to say ‘Las Vegas’ when referring to the Raiders but we will do our best. Henry Ruggs III was the fastest receiver at the combine, so clearly the Raiders had to draft him. Regardless of how that pans out it will improve the talent in the receiver room in Las Vegas. The Raiders also acquired Marcus Mariota and Jason Witten, but maybe the latter signing was just so that Gruden could have someone closer to his age to hang out with on the sideline.
Los Angeles Chargers: Let us start with replacing Philip Rivers at QB. Ok, insert Justin Herbert. The Chargers also drafted RB Joshua Kelley who should get some work right away behind starter Austin Ekeler, and WR K.J. Hill who I have seen talked up as one of the steals of the 2020 draft. We’ll see Chargers, we’ll see.