Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show (note, we were joined by Shawn Foss):

Cam Newton: Wk 8 vs Sea – 6.24 pts, Wk 9 vs NO – 13.34 pts, Wk 10 @ PHI – 15.84 pts

Newton is really a test of this trend theory. Everyone sees his play as being awful, but he’s actually trending up from his season low of 6.24 against the Seahawks. Newton also gets a bye coming up in Week 12, so is he going to stumble, or put it together for the rest of the season?

We all said that Newton would score over 13.34 points and he did, scoring 20.68 (292 passing yards, 2 td, 2 int). Both touchdowns came in the fourth quarter, which is sure to make fantasy owners nervous. That being said, we don’t care when the points come, just as long as they’re before the end of the game.

Julio Jones: Wk 7 @ BAL – 5.60 pts, Wk 8 vs DET – 5.80 pts, Wk 10 @ TB – 11.90 pts

Jones has really struggled this year compared to where his draft position was, making him a top 5 WR (preseason). Jones is still serviceable this season, but has just as many single digit games as he does double digit, which means he’s probably not as reliable as you’d like. Is this a product of Matt Ryan or Julio, and will he return to greatness or be cursed to NFC South obscurity?

Jones is making us all drink! 6 rec on 11 targets for 59 yards (that gives him 5.9 points, well below our predicted 12), Jones hasn’t found the end zone since week 3 and he’s really hurting from a fantasy perspective because of it. Jones will be going up against the Browns and Joe Haden this week, so it doesn’t get any easier!

DeAndre Hopkins: Wk 7 @ PIT – 8.80 pts, Wk 8 @ TEN – 9.50 pts, Wk 9 vs PHI – 17.50 pts

Hopkins is stepping up (trying to anyway) as the number one guy in Houston. He’s trending up and has 3 100+ yard games under his belt this year and is averaging about 10 targets per game over the last 3 games. Will Hopkins continue his upward trend, or will the new QB in Houston ruin his party?

Hopkins found himself with a new QB in Ryan Mallet, and while he still had 8 targets, he only caught 4 balls for 80 yards. Hopkins is TD dependent and last week did not find the end zone. Dave & Jason called it with him going under 10 pts, Shawn will drink having said he would go over 10.

Le’Veon Bell: Wk 8 vs IND – 14.80 pts, Wk 9 vs Bal – 11.80 pts, Wk 10 @ NYJ – 6.90 pts

Bell has scored double digit points in every single week except for Week 10 now as the Steelers appear to have all but abandoned the run game. Now, these numbers aren’t disastrous, but he’s moved out of RB1 territory. Bell has only 21 carries over the last two weeks, after 24 the week before, two of those games being blowouts for the Steelers. With the passing game working so well lately, will Bell continue to be the odd man out on the Steelers?

Pretty obvious here. Bell went off for 204 yards and a TD on 33 carries in a game that his backup threw himself quite the temper tantrum. Bell will clearly be the guy going forward, and his 28.20 points in Week 11 point him firmly in the right direction.

Ahmad Bradshaw: Wk 7 vs CIN – 18.80 pts, Wk 8 @ PIT – 14.70 pts, Wk 9 @ NYG – 7.90 pts

Bradshaw is trending down, which was a surprise to me. He has 8 total TD’s this year, so he’s been putting up points and is clearly worth a start the rest of the year, right? With matchups against NE, Jax, Was, Cle, Hou and Dal to finish the year, it’s a mixture of good and bad run defenses. Bradshaw seems a bit too TD dependent, but can you really sit the top back on one of the best teams in the league?

This one isn’t quite fair. Bradshaw left the game on Sunday night against the Patriots with a fractured fibula. This will likely land him on the season ending IR, so we’ll drink to Ahmad’s future health and hope he’s better in 2015.

Alfred Morris: Wk 7 vs TEN - 5.40 pts, Wk 8 @ DAL - 14.50 pts, Wk 9 @ MIN - 22.90

Morris averaged 10.1 pts per game, first 6 games, and 14.3 pts per game last 3. He had a really rough stretch against SEA, ARI and TEN in there. Morris was on bye Week 10, so we will follow up on this next week, but we both say he will score a solid 14 points or more.

It was a rough Sunday for the Redskins and it’s already been a rough week for them, since both the QB and coach seem to be taking to the media to have a little pissing match. Morris has been better with RG3 back, last week scoring 13.20 points with 96 yards on 20 carries, adding 2 receptions for 36 yards. Morris is very close to our projection of 14, so we will have everyone drink for this one.

Branden Oliver: Wk 7 vs KC - 7.80 pts, Wk 8 @ DEN - 6.30 pts, Wk 9 @ MIA - 2.60 pts

Oliver scored just 16.7 pts in the last 3 weeks after putting up 48.6 points in the previous two weeks. With Mathews coming back off the bye, is Oliver relevant anymore? Oliver was also on bye Week 10 and both Dave and I see him continuing to fall into obscurity, especially with Ryan Mathews expected to return to the lineup against Oakland on Sunday.

Oliver did get 13 carries and 1 reception, but only turned it into a measly 3.90 points. With Mathews back, we got Oliver’s prediction just right. He’s not really rosterable in most leagues at this point. Everyone else drinks for this one!

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 11 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 12 and we will recap the results next week.

Matthew Stafford: Wk 8 @ ATL – 20.90 pts, Wk 10 vs MIA – 18.10 pts, Wk 11 @ ARI – 6.32 pts

Over the last three weeks, Stafford has gone up against one poor defense and two excellent ones. Stafford isn’t really putting up the numbers this year that we’ve come to expect out of him, but his team is also rather weird (as is tradition in Detroit) and he’s had some injury issues to the WR group. Stafford might have another tough matchup on Sunday in New England, but his matchups for the rest of the season look awesome. Home vs CHI, TB and MIN, then @ CHI for week 16.

Golden Tate: Wk 8 @ ATL – 21.10 pts, Wk 10 vs MIA – 10.90 pts, Wk 11 @ ARI – 4.90 pts

OK, so this one should be obvious, right? Tate obviously did well with Megatron out, and now that he’s back he’ll be on the back burner. But then why did he get 13 targets Week 10? So then you say: “Yes of course, it’s because Stafford has been struggling”. But then does that mean Tate will rebound? As I said earlier, the Lions have a rather cushy schedule going forward, including next week for Tate, since Calvin Johnson will be spending the weekend on Revis Island. We’ll have to see if said island is a retreat or a place with no refuge. The latter ought to benefit Tate a lot.

Torrey Smith: Wk 8 @ CIN – 0.00 pts, Wk 9 @ PIT – 12.30 pts, Wk 10 vs TEN – 13.50 pts

Torrey smith has put up his 4 highest scoring games during the last 5 games he’s played. Of course, the odd game out was a goose-egg, which nobody likes to see. The question here is definitely about Torrey’s trend though, will it continue in the double digits, or will he lost ground to Steve Smith like at the beginning of the season. Steve has really struggled, putting up less than 10 points over the last 3 games (combined total!). There’s no lack of targets for Steve Smith, which isn’t great for Torrey, but Torrey is finding the end zone and is amazing at drawing DPI penalties, which means that Flacco will keep throwing it deep to him, at least a couple of times per game.

Andre Ellington: Wk 9 @ DAL – 19.40 pts, Wk 10 vs STL – 10.20 pts, Wk 11 vs DET 6.60 pts

Ellington has had a few rough matchups the last couple of weeks, and his schedule does not get any easier. While Ellington IS the de facto #1 RB on a team that is 9-1, he is clearly not matchup proof like a Demarco Murray or Jamaal Charles. Ellington has matchups coming up @Sea, @Atl, vs KC, @ Stl and vs Sea. There’s only one defense that’s not in the top 10 in there. Just for icing on the cake, he faces San Francisco in week 17 for those of you who are still going then. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, this may be a guy to consider selling.

Mark Ingram: Wk 9 @ CAR – 23.00 pts, Wk 10 vs SF – 13.90 pts, Wk 11 vs CIN – 9.70 pts

Ingram has been the beneficiary of injuries to other RB’s on his team and it’s translated directly into touches. Ingram has averaged 26 carries per game over the last four games and he’s definitely produced during that time. The problem here may lie with the team. When the Saints are winning, they are running the ball a lot more effectively, though clearly they will run the ball whether or not they are winning. Assuming Robinson and Thomas are out again this week, Ingram will see his usual workload facing a Ravens defense that gives up the fewest points to opposing RB’s. The rest of Ingram’s schedule is much kinder, with games @ Pit, vs Car, @ Chi and vs Atl in week 16.

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 11 and we will recap the results next week.

Having officially passed the halfway point for the 2020 Fantasy Football season, it's do or die time for most team managers to really step up their decision making and pickups from the waiver wire that can make all of the difference in those close matches. Ready to make your push for the playoffs? Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Jerick McKinnon, DeVante Parker, Marvin Jones, Mike Gesicki, Ross Dwelley, and the Tennessee Titans DST.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

158.3 Passer Rating

The NFL’s all-time leader in passer rating, Aaron Rodgers (with 103.2 for his career) finally posted his very first game with a perfect passer rating on Sunday. Rodgers went 25/31 for 429 yards and 5 TDs, adding another TD on the ground in perhaps the best game of his career. This was good for 43.76 fantasy points, which is 10 more than the next closest player this week. Perhaps Rodgers has finally figured out the new system that has been implemented in Green Bay this year. While they have done fantastic in the win-loss column, they definitely have not looked like the juggernaut offense that we all expected from a team led by Aaron Rodgers, until this week. This game was domination from start to finish, with Rodgers throwing for a TD in every quarter, and also spreading the love. All 5 TDs went to 5 different players. Honorable mention goes to Marquez Valdes-Scanting, who averaged 66.5 yards per reception (2 catches for 133 yards and 1 TD).

576 Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson, after fooling us all with only 6 rushing yards in Week 1, just posted his third game out of the last 6 where we went over 100 rushing yards. This is a historic pace and projects to 1,316 yards over 16 games. If Jackson can keep this up, he will crush the single-season record by Mike Vick, which is 1,039 yards back in 2006. Jackson also continued his fantasy dominance, leading the league with 180.6 total fantasy points in 7 games. When you consider that he has not thrown for a TD in the last two games, this is just amazing. Not bad for a guy who was drafted 106^th overall on average (QB14). He’s the kind of player that allows for league dominance when you can find that kind of value. To further put Jackson’s rushing dominance in perspective, he’s on pace to break Vick’s career total of 6,109 rushing yards in only 111 games, versus Vick’s career 143 games. That’s two full seasons worth of games.

9% of Yahoo Leagues

This week’s leading RB scorer was Chase Edmonds, who was started in only 9% of Yahoo leagues on Sunday. Currently, he’s owned in 48% of leagues, which includes a 14% jump from yesterday. To me, this means that 14% of Yahoo leagues probably do not operate with a waiver system, which is bizarre to me, but I digress. Edmonds was able to dominate the Giants non-existent rushing defense, scoring 3 TDs all from at least 20 yards or more. Edmonds will definitely be the #1 waiver wire pickup this week, and deservedly so. It looks like David Johnson might wind up sitting a week or two, considering he spent almost all of Week 7 on the sideline and the Cardinals were able to win with only 104 passing yards. Edmonds’ 33 points basically doubled up the rest of his entire team combined, which was led by Kyler Murray’s whopping 6.96 points. On a side note, Murray joined Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan in the formerly high-floor group falling back to earth. At least Murray doesn’t have an injury he’s nursing.

1 of the Top 10 Fantasy Performers

Only one of the top 10 fantasy performances turned in this week was by a player owned in 100% of Yahoo leagues. To give some context, there are 23 players owned in 100% of leagues and another 15 owned in 99% of leagues. This is usually a stat that I like to track early in the season to find out who’s performing that we weren’t expecting. To see this kind of disparity halfway in the fantasy season means that we’re probably flat out ignoring some players. And I think we are – guys like Matt Stafford (58% owned) who is the QB8 in points per game, Jacoby Brissett (48% owned) who is QB10 in the same category and Kirk Cousins (64% owned), who is averaging 26 points per game the last 3 weeks. Throw in big performances by Latavius Murray and Marvin Jones and you have an average ownership of just 75% across the top 10 fantasy performers in Week 7. This is probably just a fluky week, but I think it’s time to take notice of a few of the QBs that fantasy players seem to insist on not rolling out there.

104 Rush Yards Per Game

The NFL’s rushing yards leader is currently Dalvin Cook, with 725 yards across 7 games. There’s only been one 200+ yard performance this season (Leonard Fournette, 225 yards, Week 4), so we’re lacking the gaudy totals that we have seen in previous years. But, none of that really matters to fantasy players as long as your guys are finding the end zone as well, which is what Cook is doing. Cook has scored 8 TDs on the season, which is tied with Aaron Jones for the league lead. Cook has also managed to have an amazing points floor, never scoring below 11.4 points on the season. Only Ezekiel Elliott can claim such a double-digit elite status. Even super fantasy RB Christian McCaffrey (who still leads Cook in points despite having his bye week already) cannot claim such a floor. Cook and McCaffrey sit alone in tier 1, about 30 points above the tier two guys, who all have 107-111 points. Cook’s ADP of RB10 this season makes him one of the few second round “steals” that are pretty rare any year.

First of all, how is it not the playoffs yet? This extended season suddenly feels very weird. That being said, let's have a look at players who are trending up or down over the last 3 weeks (or longer). We like to look at trends to try and identify if a player is on the right or wrong track, OR if they’re close to turning things around.

Matthew Stafford (QB-LAR) - Week 10 @ SF, 11.82; Week 12 @ GB, 22.98; Week 13 vs JAC, 24.00: Stafford had a rough stretch this year in weeks 9 and 10 where he threw only 1 TD and 2 INTs each game and put up his two lowest fantasy point totals of the season. The Rams then had a bye week and it seems like Stafford worked a few things out, because he’s thrown 3 touchdowns in each of the two games he’s had since the bye. While it does feel like he’s turned a corner, I would be very cautious with starting him against the Cardinals, especially if you have to win this week to make the playoffs. If you’re already in, then hold on to Stafford, because his schedule for the playoffs is very nice, playing Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore, all in the top half of fantasy points against to opposing QBs.

Javonte Williams (RB-DEN) - Week 10 vs PHI, 5.9; Week 12 vs LAC, 18.6, Week 13 @ KC, 26.8: Williams has been one of the most talked about rookie RBs this season due to his seemingly untapped potential. Williams has also been one of the best RBs after contact this season, and finally the Broncos have let him loose. He has had his best two fantasy weeks since the Broncos bye in Week 11. With  Melvin Gordon is out, he’s also seeing a huge amount of touches - 29 last week! He had 178 yards from scrimmage, 6 receptions and scored a TD against the Chiefs, good for 26.8 points and the RB1 spot in Week 13. Coming up, the Broncos will probably get Gordon back this week, but the RB split should now be in favor of Williams. Three of his next 4 matchups are against teams giving up top 6 points to opposing RBs. Williams is on a true trend up and will probably be a high draft pick next year.

James Robinson (RB-JAC) - Week 11 vs SF, 10.8; Week 12 vs ATL, 11.0, Week 13 @ LAR, 2.0: While this isn’t a textbook example of the trend we’re looking for, it’s clear that Robinson’s production had been sliding downward after a really nice stretch earlier in the season. This last week he only had 9 touches in a game that, while a blowout, he should have had lots more work. It appears that Robinson could be in the doghouse. There were reports that during the game, Carlos Hyde needed a breather and Robinson was not put in for him. Robinson has a rough matchup this week against Tennessee, so sitting him wouldn't be a bad move. His next two games are great matchups, so firing him up if he gets more work in Week 14 is the right move. Then he faces the Patriots in the fantasy championship, which is never a fun matchup for anyone.

Russell Gage (WR-ATL) - Week 11 vs NE, 7.40, Week 12 @ JAC, 15.20, Week 13 vs TB, 16.50: The Falcons passing game finally seems to have a focal point, and it’s Russell Gage. Gage has 22 receptions in the last 3 games to go with 27 targets (he had 26 targets in the other 5 games he played in this year). Anyone getting 9 targets per week is going to be on everyone’s fantasy radar, and it helps that he’s either scored a TD or gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games. Gage should continue to get peppered with targets as opposing defenses are forced to focus on Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.

Chase Claypool (WR-PIT) - Week 11 @ LAC, 11.90, Week 12 @ CIN, 9.70, Week 13 vs BAL, 6.40: It’s possible that Claypool is banged up - the rumor is that he has a foot injury, though he practiced yesterday and hasn’t missed any games recently. Regardless, Claypool has not had a very good season, only going over 100 yards and scoring 1 TD all season (that was the same game. He only has 2 other games with double digit points. Claypool’s targets have gone from 9 to 8 to 3 over the last 3 weeks, and last week he played only 63% of offensive snaps, his lowest total since week 5 (and second lowest total for the season). Claypool has only 10 receptions and 3 rushes (for 3 yards) over the last 3 weeks, so he’s not getting the work that you want to see from a guy who was drafted as a WR3 (26th WR taken). Claypool has fantastic matchups for the next 2 weeks, and the 2 after that are still favorable, so it’s going to be tough to keep him on the bench, despite his poor performance recently.