Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

Week 1 is upon us and like many of you, my work week is going to suffer, and I have no plans on coming into the office on Friday. After doing player profiles and random articles for drinkfive over the last few years I wanted to change things up a bit and do a weekly post on key situations each week. We will look at three different matchups and their fantasy implications. I will also make a prediction. Hopefully we can find a dark horse or two to ride into the championship.

 

Alfred Morris/Matt Breida vs Vikings Defense

 

With Jerick McKinnon going down with a torn ACL, the door is open for a potential RB2 in a revamped San Francisco offense. Since news broke, owners quickly moved to claim either Morris or Breida. Neither is going to produce the way McKinnon was expected to, but there is some value to be found.

 

Last year in 16 games, Breida caught 21 passes. In his 3 years at Georgia Southern, he caught 22 passes. As the smaller back, I have seen a few experts say he is the PPR running back to own. I'm not saying Morris is going to get the passing down work (just 57 receptions in 90 career games), but temper expectations. I expect Garcon and Kittle to see an uptick in receiving targets.

 

Morris WILL get the goal line work and should get the early down work as well. At 5’ 10” and 224 pounds, Morris is better built to handle running between the tackles. Not to mention Morris’ history with Kyle Shanahan. One more fun tidbit…..Morris averaged 4.8 YPC on 115 carries last year.

 

If either are available in your league, I would recommend a stash. Tough matchup, but game script will be the thing to watch.

 

Prediction: Both backs look good against a tough defense. Morris capitalizes and gets in the end-zone and is named starter week 2.

 

Indianapolis Running Backs

 

The dreaded hamstring injury has Marlon Mack questionable for the opener. This leaves the door potentially open for rookie Jordan Wilkins and Christine Michael. This is not Christine Michael's first chance - I was drinking the Kool-Aid in Seattle. Looking strictly at upside, I am taking a stab at Jordan Wilkins. If he looks good week 1, he could end up keeping the job even when Mack returns. Michael is expected to split carries week 1 if Mack misses time, but we have been down that road before.

 

Do not forget about Nyheim Hines (4.38 forty at the combine). He fumbled 4 times in 2 preseason games, but the Colts drafted him as their ‘Alvin Kamara’ back. I expect to see him on the field in passing situations but will be on a short leash.

 

Whoever emerges as the RB1 on the Colts could be a steal. Highest chance is Marion Mack, but I would take a stab at rookie Jordan Wilkins since he is most likely available. If you are in a deep PPR league, keep an eye on how they use Hines and IF he can hold onto the football.

 

Prediction: Wilkins is the most impressive runner after Mack is ruled out. Does not do enough to keep the job from Mack who returns week 2, but does eat into his carries and this turns into a timeshare.

 

Packers Wide Receivers

 

The number 1 on Green Bay’s offense is Davante Adams. His ADP has him pegged as a mid-first round pick which is great value! But what about the other guys? Green Bay brought in Jimmy Graham in the offseason and some would argue he is going to be the number 2 target in the passing attack. I am buying Jimmy Graham as the top red zone target for Aaron Rodgers, but do not think he will be the number 2 option between the 20’s.

 

Randall Cobb. Dreamy eyed Randall Cobb is listed as the WR2 on the Packers depth chart. In recent news, the Packers have been shopping him for a trade. He is owed a little over 8 million and has had a nagging ankle injury so I do not expect him to depart Green Bay. Watching him last year, it looks like he has been running in quick sand. He does have a history with Aaron Rodgers, but Cobb’s best days are behind him. I am avoiding Cobb this year and looking to see who Aaron builds a connection with that has two good ankles.

 

Next up on the depth chart is Geronimo Allison. With an ADP in the 13^th round, there is a chance that Geronimo is a free agent in your league. Since Cobb is primarily playing in the slot, Allison could be the WR2 opposite Adams, who will draw the most attention. Allison is also entering his 3^rd year in the league, historically a break out year for wide receivers. I am willing to take a chance on anyone in the Green Bay offense that could potentially be 2^nd in targets (Maybe even first IF Adams were to go down. He did have 2 concussions last year.)

 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. Yes, those are the next two rookies in line behind Allison. I also just wanted to type those fabulous names out. MVS showed flashes in the preseason and is listed at 6’ 4” with a 4.37 40 time. Out of the remaining packer WRs he will be the one to keep an eye on. He could see some playing time week 1, but historically Aaron relies on his vets.

 

Prediction: Allison is the 2^nd most targeted WR on the Packers week 1 and is one of the hottest waiver wire adds going into week 2.

 

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

80 Touchdowns

 

With 10 TD throws in his first two games of the season, Patrick Mahomes is now on pace to throw a cool 80 touchdowns on the year. Give him the MVP right now, because he's going to beat Peyton's record by 25. On a serious note, he's going to need to keep this pace up if his defense keeps playing like...well, like crap. The Chiefs D have given up 65 points in two weeks, and sure, those opponents were playing catch-up, but giving up over 1000 yards is alarming to say the least. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are 2-0 behind the strength of a historic start. Mahomes joins only Drew Bledsoe with at least 4 TD in each of his first 2 games to start the season...and also our next, magic man.

 

4 TD and 400 Passing Yards

 

The Fitzmagic is real, folks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the only QB in league history to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs in the first two games of the season. Along the way, he's thrown 4 TDs of at least 50 yards or more and even put one in on the ground - all by himself! The Buccaneers season so far has consisted of blowing out their division rivals New Orleans, and then taking down the Super Bowl champs, two events that really mean that Jameis Winston will not be returning to the starting lineup in Week 4. The Bucs are one of several 2-0 teams that are a surprise, like Miami and Cincy. Unlike those two teams, the Bucs look like they could actually be the best team in their division. Finally, congrats to DeSean Jackson, who tied Jerry Rice for the most 60+ yard TDs, notching his 23rd against his old team on a 75-yard catch and run on the first offensive snap of the game.

 

28 Receptions in Two Games

 

If you own Michael Thomas in a PPR league, you're definitely happy with his two straight 30+ point performances. His 28 catches in two games are 10 more than the next closest players - a 3-way tie between Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Adam Thielen. Thomas has been targeted 30 times and he is catching everything that comes his way. He's basically the entire receiving core of the team. Aside from Alvin Kamara's 15 catches, Thomas has more receptions than the rest of the team combined (21). He's a cool 20 points ahead of the next closest WR, and is second overall in PPR fantasy points, only behind the afore mentioned Fitzmagic. He's on pace for well over 200 catches, smashing the record of 143 by Marvin Harrison. This is, of course, an absurd (but fun) extrapolation.

 

8.4 Yards per Carry

 

This year's early season rushing leader is not one that many people predicted. Matt Breida has 184 yards on only 22 carries. His usage is mostly thanks to the absence of Jerick McKinnon, but he's making the most of it. The 49ers have given him 11 carries in each game, and I expect that number to go up. They should have given him more carries in the 4th quarter to help ice the game away, so I expect his production to continue improving. His next three games are against the Chiefs, Chargers and Cardinals - all teams that have a very porous defense. Breida is only owned in 61% of Yahoo leagues, so while not a hidden gem by any means, he is a guy who needs to be in starting lineups in most, if not all leagues.

 

1 out of 10 Tight Ends

 

This season, the top 10 TEs have been the model of inconsistency. Only one of the top 10, Eric Ebron, has more than 6 points in both games this season. Most guys have one big game and one dud, not great, but you'll take it. What makes Ebron's consistency surprising is that he went into the season and wasn't considered the top TE on his own team - that belonged to Jack Doyle. Doyle has been targetted more than Ebron, but hasn't been productive. Meanwhile, Ebron has managed to find the end zone in each game and may become a favorite target of Andrew Luck, who had a good showing in Washington on Sunday. Only Will Dissly has a chance to save some face for his positional group, when he suits up tonight in Chicago.

It’s time for the playoff push in fantasy football - the last two weeks of the regular season are upon us. We’ll take a look at Dave’s rankings and compare them to the ECR (expert consensus rankings) on Fantasypros.com. Some players we like more than the crowd, some of them are ranked lower, but I’ll do my best to justify why I like them.

Boston Scott (RB-PHI), Rank 20, ECR 27 (+7) - Scott is in a committee in the Eagles backfield, but he’s been getting a decent share of work. Since being added to the rotation back in Week 6, he’s averaging 10 carries per week and has scored 4 touchdowns. Jordan Howard was also inactive last week due to an injury, and Miles Sanders tweaked his ankle during the week 12 game, so his status needs to be monitored. If Sanders does not go, then Scott’s stock goes up even more. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the second place team isn’t even close. The Jets have given up double digit points 18 times in 11 games this season. For a single week spot start, you could do a lot worse than Boston Scott.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-NE), Rank 25, ECR 28 (+3) - This week, the Patriots will play the Bills on Monday night football. The Bills just got torched by Jonathan Taylor for over 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago. While I’m not saying that there will be anything like a repeat of that, what I am saying is that the tape on how to run on the Bills is out there, and Bill Belichick is the coach who is most likely to be able to repeat that. Stevenson has led the Patriots backfield in carries in 2 of the last 3 weeks, and he’s a good flex play. The Bills are better at defending the pass than the run, so the Patriots will definitely lean on the run game instead of leaning on their rookie QB to defeat this stout defense.

Rex Burkhead (RB-HOU), Rank 30, ECR 33 (+3) - Burkhead is leading the way in the Houston backfield the last two weeks. While that hasn’t translated to a lot of fantasy points, he does have 33 touches over that time, and one thing we like to see from RBs is the opportunity to score points. If you’re getting the ball, you’re more likely to score. Simple as that. Burkhead is a touchdown dependent dart throw this week against the Colts.

Jamaal Williams (RB-DET), Rank 27, ECR 23 (-4) - Williams has moved up the charts due to the likely absence of D’Andre Swift coming up in week 13. This is an area where I disagree with Dave and I would go ahead and start Williams if you’re short at RB or need a flex play. Williams should see plenty of usage - last week he saw 20 touches, and Week 1 with Swift limited, he had 17 touches (8 receptions!). This will be the first full game where Williams has the backfield all to himself, and the Vikings are giving up the 9th most points to opposing RBs, after having just been dominated on the ground last week by the 49ers. 

Matt Breida (RB-BUF), Rank 33, ECR 30 (-3) - Breida has only been used in the last 3 games, but he’s scored in two of them and is averaging 12.07 points per game during that span. He has 1.57 points per touch in these three games, so he’s being very efficient during this time and has earned the right to get more work. I could definitely see his touches per game get into the 12-15 range very soon. This week they play the Patriots, who traditionally focus on shutting down the best weapons on the opposing team. Breida is probably the 4th best weapon the Bills are presenting at the moment, so this could be a sneaky good matchup for him if the primary offensive weapons are not effective. 

CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL), Rank 7, ECR 10 (+3) - Lamb is back in the lineup for this week, now practicing in full after being in the concussion protocol and missing the Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys play on Thursday night (with normal rest!) and will likely be missing Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson. Lamb should be in line for a ton of volume against the Saints, who give up the 5th most points to opposing WRs. Fire up Lamb in all formats as a very solid WR1.

Hunter Renfrow (WR-OAK), Rank 31, ECR 25 (-6) - Here’s a spot where I disagree with Dave. Since the Raiders bye in week 8, Renfrow has led the team in receptions and/or yardage in 3 of 4 games. He’s averaging 6.5 receptions over that span, and has 12.9 points per game during that time. Renfrow’s matchup this week is against the Washington Football Team, who give up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr throws for 300+ yards, so I expect them to air the ball out as much as is reasonable for the rest of the season. That, or we’ll just have to trust in the coin to deliver their victory this week. I like Renfrow as an easy WR3, even better than just a flex option.

Kendrick Bourne (WR-NE), Rank 38, ECR 34 (-4) - Here’s a spot where I suspect I see more value than Dave does. Bourne is certainly boom or bust, but he’s boomed in two of the last three weeks, scoring over 20 points in weeks 10 and 12. Bourne gets a consistent amount of targets, 4-6 each game, and does get a few handoffs occasionally, which helps, but doesn’t exactly provide him with a higher floor. There are no dominant receiving options on the Patriots, so it’s not like Bourne will get crowded out. He has a chance go really go off each game, so treat him as a high risk, high reward flex play, especially in a standard or half PPR format.

Van Jefferson (WR-LAR), Rank 33, ECR 31 (-2) - Van Jefferson has emerged as the #2 option on the Rams, albeit a distant second behind Cooper Kupp. Jefferson seems to only excel when scoring a touchdown, but the opportunities are definitely there. The Rams throw the ball about 37 times per game, and Jefferson is averaging 7.7 targets per game in the last 3 games. Jefferson has developed into a proper downfield threat, even with the addition of Odell Beckham. The Jaguars are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, so it’s a plus matchup for Van as the Rams look to beat up on the Jags after losing to the Packers.