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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the first 11 weeks of the season have put you in a good position as we head into the closing stretch of the fantasy regular season, because byes are going to make two of the next three weeks pretty hairy. It starts this week, with 6 teams on byes in week 12 that include 2 of the top-5 QBs, 4 of the top-13 RBs, 4 of the top-14 WRs, and 3 of the top-12 TEs in points per game. If your teams aren’t impacted in week 12, consider yourself extremely lucky, though I’m guessing that means you’ll be impacted in week 14.

With so many byes this week, you may have to dig a little deeper to fill starting spots than usual, so you’re going to see some rookies below with more favorable recommendations than they’d normally get with a full slate of games, and quite a few more rookie deep league sleepers than usual. I’m going to harp on it a lot, but when there are this many byes, the standards of what guys you should be considering get lowered.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 11…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): After a few down weeks for Jayden Daniels, it’s now Bo Nix who is the safest weekly fantasy start among the rookie QBs. Nix has rattled off 5 top-12 finishes in his last 7 games, including weekly finishes as the QB2, QB3, QB8 and QB9 in that span. He finished as a mid-range QB2 in both games where he failed to crack the top-12, so the floor has been solid as well. This week he faces a Vegas defense that has allowed the 8^th-most QB points per game and ranks 26^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA stat. The Raiders have given up multiple passing scores and 23+ fantasy points to 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced, including to Bo Nix in week 5. With Joe Burrow and Josh Allen on byes this week, Nix is a top-10 QB play for me.

RB Tyrone Tracy, Jr., NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): There’s no reason to overthink this one. Tracy has a clear lead back role and is about to face a Tampa defense that allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. The switch to Tommy DeVito shouldn’t be a problem for Tracy. It could mean they lean harder on the run game, but DeVito also has shown to be more willing to throw to running backs than Daniel Jones when he’s had chances to play. Jones targeted RBs on 18.3% of his passes in 2023, and on 14.5% in 2024. For DeVito, that rate in 2023 was 23.2%. More targets against the Bucs would be a huge boost to Tracy, as Tampa allows the 3^rd-most RB receptions per game and the most RB receiving yards per game. You also don’t need to worry about Tracy ceding that receiving work to Devin Singletary. Tracy has logged route participation rates of 55% or higher in 3 of the 4 games he’s started when Singletary has been active. It’s Tracy’s backfield. With 6 teams on byes, the rookie is a solid RB2 this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): The QB changes for the Giants this week, but I don’t think it’s any worse than a lateral move for Nabers. Daniel Jones was providing arguably the worst QB play in the NFL, and Head Coach Brian Daboll has already been gushing about Tommy DeVito’s ability to make anticipation throws, telling Nabers to “get your head around, because he will throw it before you break.” Nabers has been a WR3 or better in every single game he’s played this year, but in recent weeks he’s sort of hovered around the WR2/3 borderline. I’d expect his floor to remain in that range, but the hope is that DeVito brings back some of that top-10 upside that Nabers showed earlier this year. You know he’s going to continue to see 30% of the targets, and the Bucs allow the 6^th-most WR points per game. Nabers should continue to be started with confidence.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Bowers is coming off his best performance of the season, and is easily pacing to post the best rookie tight end season since Mike Ditka’s 12-TD rookie campaign back in the 60s. The matchup here isn’t a great one – Denver allows the 12^th-fewest TE points per game – but Bowers racked up 13-126-1 last weekend against a Miami team that entered the week allowing the 8^th-fewest. Bowers has earned 10+ targets in 4 of his past 6 games, and he’s an easy call as a top-3 option at tight end this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Daniels has been slipping in recent weeks. He still ranks as the QB6 by total points, but he’s finished as the QB24 or worse in 3 of the last 5 games. On paper, Dallas looks like a great matchup to right the ship – the Cowboys allow the 5^th-most QB points per game and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA – but Dallas’ defense has been badly hampered by injuries and is getting healthier. Micah Parsons returned last week after a 6-week absence, and Marshawn Kneeland and DaRon Bland could both be active this week. Kneeland, like Parsons, was hurt in week 4, and Bland would be making his season debut. The Cowboys have allowed 25+ points to an opposing QB 4 times this year. 3 of them were with Parsons & Kneeland sidelined. They’ve held 3 of the 5 QBs they’ve faced with Parsons active below 13 points. With that said, the Dallas defense remains really bad against the run, and they’ve especially struggled with mobile QBs. The 5 QBs that have scored 20+ fantasy points against Dallas this year have averaged 10.1 fantasy points against them from just rushing production, and that includes 0.5 points from Jared Goff. Daniels should have success running the ball, and I think he finds his way back into the ranks of the QB1s this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): Irving has finished as a top-18 PPR back in 4 of his last 5 games, and now gets to face a Giants’ defense that has allowed 773 rushing yards in their last 4 contests. Irving has posted those performances in a stretch where Tampa has played mostly from behind, which tends to favor Rachaad White. During the current Tampa 4-game losing streak, White has run 31 more receiving routes than Irving, but carried the ball 9 fewer times. This week, Tampa is favored by 5.5-points and should be playing from ahead for a change. That should slant this backfield in Irving’s favor for the week, and against a terrible Giants’ run defense, he should have no trouble putting together an RB2 finish. It’s worth mentioning though that the Bucs have talked about wanting to get Sean Tucker involved again, but I think we likely won’t see Tucker for more than a couple plays unless we get into garbage time late.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): In all honesty, I could probably move McConkey up to the section above, and you probably wouldn’t bat an eye. Touchdowns and ceiling weeks haven’t been easy to come by for the rookie – he has just one top-12 fantasy finish all year – but he’s been a top-30 finisher in 5 of his last 7 games, and this week sets up really nicely for him against a Ravens’ team that is significantly better defending the run than the pass. Baltimore allows the most WR fantasy points per game, and they play man-to-man coverage at the 12^th-highest rate in the NFL. No WR has been better against man coverage than McConkey this year. Per PFF, he’s averaging 0.82 PPR points per route run against man coverage, the best rate in the league this year (minimum 50 routes run), and he ranks 5^th in yards per route run against man coverage with 4.02. With all the byes this week, it’s hard to see him as anything less than a solid WR2 play.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 12: @Sea.): Rostering Harrison has been much more of a roller coaster ride than it should be for a player who has a 42% air yardage share for the season and has been above a 20% target share in 8 of his last 9 games (he left the other game early with a concussion). In the 8 games where he’s seen over a 20% target share, he’s finished as a top-25 PPR WR 5 times, and he’s finished outside the top-45 3 times. There hasn’t been much of a middle ground. With all of the byes this week, I find it hard to believe he’ll finish outside the top-45 WRs in week 12, especially against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 12^th-most WR points per game, and they’re in the top half of the league in man coverage rate. Harrison has done his best work against man coverage – per PFF, he ranks in the top-10 receivers in the league in fantasy points per route run vs. man coverage (minimum 25 routes), and he earns a target on a third of his routes against man-to-man defenses. I’d treat him as a fringe WR2 option this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Odunze gets the benefit of the doubt this week because of the bye-pocalypse. The Bears’ passing game looked competent for the first time in weeks last Sunday now that Thomas Brown is calling the plays, and since week 8 Rome has a 26% target share and 40% air yardage share, both team highs. They’ve finally started to run the passing game through him a bit more, and the Vikings allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game. I wouldn’t view Odunze as anything more than a WR3 option given how inconsistent the Bears’ passing game and Odunze’s production have been, but if you’ve got the fortitude to start him, there’s a solid chance it’ll pay dividends.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): In all honesty, Worthy probably isn’t a great option this week, but if you’re impacted by byes, there aren’t a lot of players who offer a higher ceiling than Worthy. The likeliest way this game plays out is that the Chiefs lean on a returning Isiah Pacheco and the run game and easily beat a Carolina team that they’re favored to beat by double-digits, but part of me believes Mahomes and the Chiefs are itching for an opportunity to finally have an offensive explosion, and Carolina may offer the perfect matchup to do it. The Panthers rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in run defense DVOA, and Kansas City hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game this year. We know Mahomes and the Chiefs have a 40-point game in them, and if that happens, the chances are pretty good that Xavier Worthy scores one of the TDs. Worthy’s targets have been down since DeAndre Hopkins joined the team, but he turned 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt into a top-20 finish against a strong Buffalo defense last weekend. A similar workload against a bad Panthers’ defense could be on tap this week. I see Worthy as a boom-or-bust WR3/4 play this week. If you believe the Chiefs’ offense explodes, he’s probably worth rolling the dice on.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): Obviously, you probably don’t want to start Maye in single QB formats against the Dolphins, who allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game, but don’t let that defense scare you off of him if you’re considering him for a QB2 spot. Miami was dominant against QBs early in the year, but they’ve been much more vulnerable in recent weeks and now rank 16^th in pass defense DVOA. In their last 4 contests, Miami has allowed nearly 280 passing yards per game and gave up multiple TD passes 3 times, including to Gardner Minshew last weekend. There are going to be rookie mistakes with Maye – he’s thrown 6 INTs in 5 full games played – but we know he’s going to be aggressive and make plays as well, and he provides a boost with his legs that can offset some of the mistakes (Maye averages 41 rushing yards per game in his 6 starts). I’d view Maye as a mid-range QB2 this week in a matchup that isn’t quite as tough as it seems on paper.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): The switch to Thomas Brown at OC proved to be a fruitful one for Caleb for at least one week. The Bears’ offense looked much sharper than they had in weeks under Shane Waldron, and Caleb was more decisive and willing to take off and run when he didn’t get the looks he wanted in the passing game. Caleb finished with his 2^nd-highest completion percentage of the season, 231 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards, but was just the QB21 for the week due to lack of touchdowns. I’m hopeful the positive strides continue this week, but the Vikings’ defense is a different animal than Green Bay’s. Minnesota ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA, allows the 10^th-fewest QB points per game, and allows the fewest QB rushing yards per game. In fact, no QB they’ve faced has run for 20+ yards against them. Caleb is going to have to win throwing the ball against the best pass defense in the league. With only 26 teams in action, Caleb is of course in consideration for superflex spots if you’re in a pinch, but I wouldn’t consider him as a fill-in QB1 this week.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Sean Payton loves to mess with us on a weekly basis, doesn’t he? The Broncos’ head coach had teased bigger workloads for Estime multiple times earlier this season without following through, so it was a surprise when Estime handled 14 of the team’s 17 RB carries in week 10 despite Payton talking him up that week. When Payton continued to talk him up into week 11, it was only natural to believe that his large workload would continue, but Payton pulled the rug out from under us last Sunday. Estime was one of the most added players in fantasy leagues last week, and is one of the most dropped players this week after finishing with just 25 yards on 9 touches against Atlanta. 9 touches may sound like a decent workload, but 7 of those touches came in 2^nd half garbage time after Denver had opened up a 28-6 lead. Javonte Williams served as the clear lead back, and Estime handled mop up duty. This week’s matchup is another one that the Broncos could win comfortably – they’re 5.5-point road favorites in Vegas – and the Raiders allow the 7^th-most RB points per game, but you’re taking a huge risk if you’re relying on Estime in lineups this week. I know there are a lot of byes this week and you may be desperate for RB help, but with Payton in charge, Estime could see 20 touches or he could see 3. If I had to pick a Denver back to start this week, I’m picking Javonte.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 12: @ Sea.): Benson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in each of his last two games, but Arizona has had a strange habit of playing in lopsided games this year, and most of Trey’s playing time has come in garbage time. He’s logged 4 games this year with at least 9 touches, and all 4 of those games were decided by 20+ points. Just 14 of his 54 touches for the season have come in situations where the margin on the scoreboard was less than 14 points. I bring this up because the Cardinals are 1-point underdogs in Seattle. If this game is as close as Vegas thinks it’ll be, Benson likely will be limited to just a few touches. Seattle isn’t a daunting matchup for running backs, allowing the 11^th-most RB points per game, but starting Benson is a bet on this game being more lopsided than it should be on paper.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Legette has been serving as the Panthers’ de facto WR1 since the Diontae Johnson trade, and while that’s a good thing for him in general, it’s not great when you’re facing the Chiefs because it means a head-to-head matchup with Trent McDuffie. McDuffie has allowed just 5.6 yards per target on throws into his coverage this season, and he’s a big part of the reason why Kansas City allows the 3^rd-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers. Legette only has one top-24 fantasy finish this season, and in this tough matchup it’s likely he will finish below his normal production. I’d view him as a WR4 option this week at best.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): It’s always difficult to trust a player in your lineup the week after he puts up a goose egg. In his first 3 games played, Pearsall finished as the PPR WR46, WR35, and then WR12 before being blanked last Sunday on 2 targets. I don’t expect Pearsall to get shut out again, but he’s comfortably behind all of Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, CMC, and George Kittle in the team target pecking order, and that’s going to make him hit-or-miss on a weekly basis. This week he faces the Packers, who allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander in this contest, so Pearsall gets a small bump, but I’m not sure it’s enough to make me comfortable starting him when he could be limited to just a few touches.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Franklin found the end zone last weekend and has seen his route participation rate increase in each of the last 3 weeks, but he’s still limited to a part-time role, he’s not earning targets at a high rate, and Sean Payton could pull the rug out from under us at any moment and cut his involvement in half. Franklin hasn’t earned higher than a 10% target share since week 7, and even with the TD last weekend, he finished as the PPR WR40 for the week. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, do play man-to-man coverage at a significantly higher rate than the Falcons do, and Franklin does his best work against man coverage, but the Raiders are still only playing man-to-man at a league average rate. I wouldn’t want to trust Franklin this week, even in deeper leagues.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): Noah Fant is questionable again this week, so the door is open for another Barner start in Seattle, but I would look for other options this week, even if you’re desperate for a fill in. The Cardinals allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all year to catch for 40+ yards (George Kittle and Will Dissly), and only Kittle to reach the end zone. Barner’s average target has been just 3.3 yards downfield in his two games as starter, so you’re banking on a TD or a bunch of targets to get a respectable performance if you start him.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Wright has seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert in this backfield, but there’s a chance that’s due to a groin injury Mostert has been dealing with. Wright has out-snapped Mostert in each of the last two games, but so far it hasn’t resulted in a large workload, as he’s logged just 6 touches in each of those contests. The last time he handled more than 6 touches in a game was back in week 5 when he tallied 13 carries for 86 yards against these same Patriots he’s facing this week. In that game, De’Von Achane suffered an early concussion and Wright split the backfield work with Mostert. I wouldn’t expect a repeat here. Tyler Huntley was at QB in that game, and the Dolphins called a run-heavy gameplan. I’d be surprised if Wright gets to double-digit touches this time around, and I wouldn’t view him as anything more than a desperation option. 

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): Steele has now been held under 20% of the offensive snaps in 7 straight games, and Kansas City is expected to welcome back Isiah Pacheco this week. It’s possible Steele doesn’t lose additional snaps with Pacheco’s return since he offers a different skill set than the other KC backs, but he’s not playable now, and he won’t be playable with Pacheco back.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Corum was allowed to play for one glorious 2^nd quarter drive last weekend where he rushed for 21 yards on 4 carries and pulled in a 7-yard reception as well, but he spent pretty much the entire rest of the game on the sideline. He had just 1 rush attempt for zero yards outside of that drive. He continues to be nothing more than a change of pace back for Kyren Williams, and the Rams don’t like to change pace a whole lot. Philly allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, so I wouldn’t count on a surprising spike game on limited touches here.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): Guerendo has played just 5 offensive snaps and touched the ball just once in the two games with Christian McCaffrey back on the field. He’s off the fantasy radar until there’s another injury in this backfield.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): Vidal has now been a healthy scratch in two straight games with Gus Edwards back. He’s not on the fantasy radar in non-dynasty formats.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): The Patriots got Kendrick Bourne back into the mix in week 11 and Polk operated as the team’s WR5. He was in a route on nearly a third of the team dropbacks but wasn’t targeted. He’s now earned just 2 targets in the last 3 games. You can’t have any confidence in plugging him into lineups.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Mitchell was under a 20% route participation rate for the 2^nd time in the last 3 weeks last weekend (also for just the 2^nd time in the last 8 games), and he turned that limited playing time into 1-33 on two targets. He was tripped up a yard short of a touchdown on that one catch. He hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any game Anthony Richardson has started this season, and is a distant WR4 on the depth chart at the moment. Detroit allows the 7^th-most WR points per game, but Mitchell isn’t going to be the receiver to take advantage of that matchup.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Washington was in a route on 37% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 11, his 2^nd highest route participation rate of the season, and equal with Odell Beckham Jr.’s rate for the week as well, but he finished with just 18 yards on 4 touches. He’s still too deep down the pecking order in this offense to be considered for fantasy lineups.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): McCaffrey was in a route on just 31% of the team passing dropbacks last week against the Eagles. It was his lowest route participation rate of the season. He hasn’t played more than 50% of the snaps in any game since week 5, and he’s totaled just 2 catches in his last 5 games.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Whittington has run just one route in the last two weeks since returning from injury. He’s being used almost exclusively on special teams at this point.

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Stover remains at least modestly involved in the offense – he logged right around a 30% route participation rate in week 11, even with Nico Collins back – but he’s still yet to reach 3 targets or 4 PPR points in any game this season. He remains a Dalton Schultz injury away from relevance.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Sinnott remains the TE3 in Washington. He ran just a handful of targetless routes in week 11 while John Bates was targeted 3 times against Philly. Sinnott was the second TE off the board in the draft in April, but he continues to be a non-factor as a rookie.

Rookies on Byes in week 12: RB Ray Davis, BUF, RB Braelon Allen, WR Keon Coleman, BUF, WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX, WR Mason Tipton, NO, WR Jermaine Burton, CIN, WR Malachi Corley, NYJ

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Laube has spent his rookie season mostly languishing as a healthy scratch on game days. He’s been active just 3 times this season, and played only one offensive snap in those 3 games – a snap where he fumbled the ball away. He may finally get his second touch of the season this week with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison both battling injuries. Both players missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Ameer Abdullah has been the 3^rd RB for much of the season, and will undoubtedly see an expanded role if both players are out, but there really aren’t any Vegas running backs left who are built to run between the tackles. Between Abdullah, Laube, and the team’s two practice squad RBs (newly signed Chris Collier and rookie Sincere McCormick), Vegas has 4 backs who all weigh 210 pounds or less. Because of that, I don’t expect either practice squad player to leapfrog Laube into a big role. I think we’re going to see Abdullah play something like two-thirds of the snaps, and Laube fill in the rest of the time. The Broncos rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 4^th-most RB receptions and 5^th-most RB receiving yards per game, so that’s the place the Raiders backs should be able to do damage, and both Abdullah and Laube are capable in that area. I’m not sure I’d want to count on more than 5-6 PPR points out of Laube this week, but if White and Mattison both miss this game, he’s likely to be at least modestly involved. He’s still just a desperation option in deep PPR leagues this week.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): I mention Brooks here more as a stash for future weeks than as a guy to plug in for week 12. Brooks is expected to finally be activated this week and see his first NFL action, but he enters a backfield that has largely been dominated by Chuba Hubbard, so he’ll be fighting for RB2 work alongside Miles Sanders. There is a sliver of hope for Brooks this week as the Panthers figure to play from behind as 10.5-point underdogs, and Brooks’ clearest path to playing time is in the passing game. For the season, Chuba Hubbard has played 72% of the offensive snaps, but he’s played just 34% of the long down & distance snaps and has ceded much of that work to Sanders. If Brooks can take over that Sanders role, he could have some receiving upside in a game where the Panthers should be forced to throw a lot. It’s worth nothing though, that the Chiefs have allowed the 12^th-fewest RB receptions and 6^th-fewest RB receiving yards this year. Brooks is only worth a look out of desperation, but better weeks could be ahead with Tampa in week 13 and Dallas in week 15.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Vele has finished as a WR3 or better in back-to-back games and seems to have established himself as Denver’s clear WR2. The potential return of Josh Reynolds this week could throw a wrench into things, but Vele again feels like a reasonable WR3/4 option in PPR leagues against a Vegas team that ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA and has been more vulnerable in the slot than on the perimeter. Slot corner Nate Hobbs has allowed the most fantasy points per route run into his coverage among the Raiders’ starting corners, and that’s who Vele should face most often. There’s always risk in trusting a Sean Payton skill player that isn’t named Courtland Sutton, but Vele has shown a nice floor in recent performances.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Coker’s outlook this week is really going to depend on how Adam Thielen is used upon his return. Thielen is expected to be active this week, and in his tenure with the Panthers he’s been used primarily as a slot receiver…the same role that Jalen Coker has been playing for the last couple months. Per Mike Clay from ESPN, the Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot, but the 3^rd-fewest to receivers on the perimeter, so it’s kind of a big deal which guy will play in the slot. If Thielen is held out for another week, then we know Coker has sneaky WR3 upside in this matchup as the primary slot guy. If Thielen returns, pay close attention to the reporting on how these players will be used. I find it hard to believe that David Moore will remain a starter in 3-wide sets with Thielen back, which means one of Thielen or Coker will be lined up on the outside. The one who stays in the slot has a chance at a strong fantasy performance.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): McMillian has been kind of a forgotten man in Tampa since he’s been sidelined and hasn’t played since week 8, and now his return to the lineup will be overshadowed by Mike Evans returning the same week. With that said, I expect McMillan to play a full-time role this week and push Ryan Miller and Rakim Jarrett back to the bench. Mike Evans will undoubtedly be the WR1 this week, but the Bucs are a pass-first team, and the Giants rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA. McMillan still hasn’t caught for more than 35 yards in a game this season, so the ceiling probably isn’t huge here, but in a week with so many byes, McMillan has some appeal if you’re desperate for a fill-in WR. I’d expect Evans to get some extra defensive attention, which could open up opportunities for splash plays for McMillan, who has a 14-yard aDOT for the season.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): You might not realize it, but Ja’Tavion has finished as a top-15 PPR tight end in 4 of his last 5 games and has become an integral part of the Panthers’ passing attack, and this week he faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed the 5^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t bump Sanders up to a top-12 play this week, but he’s certainly a serviceable option if your seeking a spot-starter this week because your tight end is on a bye. It’s worth noting that Tommy Tremble is off the injury report this week and is expected to return, and the Panthers have stubbornly treated Tremble as the starter when he’s been healthy. I’d like to believe that Sanders has shown enough over the last month that he should remain the full-time tight end with Tremble back, but we’ve seen Sanders play second-fiddle to Tremble as recently as week 8. Keep an eye on team reports this week to see if the team hints at Sanders being ‘the guy’ at tight end moving forward.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Just like Sanders above, Johnson gets a favorable matchup this week that makes him worth considering if you need a fill-in TE streamer. It’s hard to say with certainty how the switch to Tommy DeVito will impact Theo, but DeVito targeted tight ends on 17.3% of his throws last year, and much of that was with rookie Daniel Bellinger as his starting tight end, so I think similar usage to what we’ve seen with Daniel Jones is a reasonable expectation for the new rookie. Johnson has reached at least 3 catches and 30 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games and 4 of his last 5, and Tampa allows the 4^th-most tight end points per game. The passing game will still run through Malik Nabers, but Johnson should see at least a few targets come his way as well. Starting Theo probably shouldn’t be the goal this week, but if you’re struggling to find a spot starter, he probably won’t kill you.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 12: @ Was.): Jake Ferguson left Monday night’s game early with a concussion, and it seems unlikely he’ll get cleared in time to play this weekend. Luke Schoonmaker is the TE2 in Dallas, but both Schoonmaker and Spann-Ford were heavily involved after the injury. Brevyn finished with just a 39% route participation rate, but he hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets as Cooper Rush threw the ball an absurd 55 times. The passing volume should be high again this week as Dallas is a 10.5-point underdog in DC. Washington allows the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, so this is a middling matchup for tight ends. I wouldn’t consider Spann-Ford as a TE1, but if you’re in a pickle for a bye week fill-in for a TE2 or flex spot in TE premium formats, there is some upside here for a player who is rostered in just 2% of dynasty leagues on Sleeper. He’s more likely to be available on the wire in the deepest leagues than Ja’Tavion or Theo.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. What I’m thankful for this holiday weekend is that there are no byes for my fantasy teams to account for. We’ve got 6 of them next week to work around, so enjoy this reprieve from the bye weeks while it’s here. Because all 32 teams are in action, the bar to clear to be worthy of a starting lineup spot this week is higher than it’s been in recent weeks, so I want to warn you that I’m going to sound like a broken record referencing that fact throughout the column. There are several rookies who fall on the wrong side of the borderline this week that probably wouldn’t if there were a few byes. Keep in mind as you read through the list of wide receivers I’d lean toward sitting this week that being listed under that header just means I don’t see them as top-36 options at the position this week. If you’re in deeper leagues with more than 3 wide receiver slots or multiple flex spots, several of them can be useful.

This week is a unique one when it comes to the NFL schedule. Thanks to 3 games on Thanksgiving and a Black Friday game, there are 8 different start times for NFL games this week (9 if you count 3:05 CT and 3:25 CT on Sunday as separate start times). If you have any players that are questionable this week that you’re planning to start, you need to be hyper aware of their start time and the start time of the replacement options. Make sure you don’t wind up in a position where your backup plan plays earlier than the questionable starter, and keep your Thursday/Friday starters out of the flex spots wherever possible. With all of that in mind, let’s talk about this week’s rookies.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 13…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Like it or not, Bo Nix is a weekly top-12 QB play. He’s finished in the top-12 in 3 straight games and in 6 of his last 8, and nothing about this week’s matchup should scare you away from expecting similar production this week. The Browns have allowed multiple TD passes in 6 of their last 7 games, and 270+ passing yards in 3 of the last 4. They also allow the 9^th-most QB rushing yards per game. They play man-to-man defense at one of the highest rates in the league, which should allow for some opportunities for Nix to run. I’d treat Bo as a top-10 QB this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 13: @ Car.): There may have been a long overdue changing of the guard in the Bucs backfield in week 12. Both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White finished last week’s game with the same 12 rushing attempts, but it was Bucky who served as the clear lead back. It was the first time all season that Irving ran more receiving routes than White in a game where both played, and it was by a sizable margin (19 routes to 11). Bucky also out-targeted White 6-to-1, and while the rushing attempts were equal, more than half of Rachaad’s rushing attempts came in 4^th quarter garbage time. Bucky dominated the work while the game was still in doubt, with even Sean Tucker mixing in ahead of Rachaad. Irving has been the more efficient back all season, and it seems as though the Bucs have finally redistributed the backfield work accordingly. White isn’t going to go away entirely, but Bucky should continue to lead the way against a Carolina defense that allows the most RB points per game and ranks dead last in FTN’s run defense DVOA. Irving has been a top-24 PPR back in 7 of the last 9 games, and his increased workload in this matchup means he’s probably a top-12 play this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 13: @ Dal.): We haven’t seen top-5 upside from Nabers in weeks, but we also haven’t seen him finish as worse than a WR3 in any game this season. He’s finished right around the WR2/3 borderline for 4 straight weeks, and as we saw last week, a new QB didn’t change that. I would expect similar results this week with Drew Lock likely to start. Nabers could get some squeaky wheel treatment after he complained about not getting any targets until late in the first half last week, so he could see even higher volume than usual. Dallas allows the 12^th-most WR points per game, and I don’t expect them to offer enough resistance to keep Nabers out of the top-24 receivers this week.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 13: @ KC): Bowers is coming off a down game in week 12, finishing with just 4 catches for 38 yards, but he earned 10 targets in the process. He’s not going to have many games with that kind of production when he gets 10 targets. Unfortunately, Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone in that game, so the Raiders go back to Aidan O’Connell at QB, but O’Connell shouldn’t put much of a dent into Bowers’ upside. Brock has earned a 23.7% target share from O’Connell for the season, and in the one game that Aidan played from start to finish, he posted 9-71 on 10 targets against the Steelers. Kansas City allows the 5^th-most TE points per game, and they’ve struggled to slow down tight ends who serve as an offensive focal point. George Kittle, Cade Otton, Mike Gesicki, and Isaiah Likely all posted 75+ yards against KC. Bowers put up 5-58 in the first meeting, and I’d expect even more this time around. Bowers remains a top-5 TE option this week in a decent matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Daniels seemingly righted the ship last weekend, finishing as the overall QB1 for the week after being outside the top-20 at the position in weeks 10 & 11, but some of the underlying issues in the passing game still remained. Prior to a long TD to Terry McLaurin in the final 30 seconds, Daniels had thrown for just 183 yards and 1 TD. If that pass falls incomplete, it would’ve been the lowest passing yardage total of the season for Daniels despite the fact that he matched his season-high with 38 pass attempts. Without that late TD, he still would’ve had a top-12 finish for the week thanks to a fantastic rushing day, but the passing struggles are worrying as he faces a Titans’ defense that has only allowed 250+ passing yards in a game once all year. That’s not to say the Titans are invulnerable – they’ve given up multiple QB scores in 6 of 7 games and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the 7^th-most QB rush yards per game and 4 QB rushing scores on the year. Daniels’ rushing upside in this matchup means he probably finishes among the top-10 QBs for the week, but the passing struggles give me at least a little bit of pause before calling him an auto-start. He has a QB1 overall ceiling, as we saw last week, but a lower floor than Bo Nix.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 13: @ Dal.): Tracy’s production was hurt last week with Tommy DeVito at QB as the Giants struggled to get much going offensively until late in the game. The team did lean on the run game when they could, and Tracy finished with a respectable 70 scrimmage yards and 4 catches, but he also lost a 3^rd quarter fumble and was benched for the following drive, a drive that ended with a 1-yard Devin Singletary TD. This week, it looks like Drew Lock will be under center for New York, which could prove to be an upgrade for the offense. Any improvement would mean more TD upside for Tracy, but the thing I’m most excited about for Tyrone this week is the matchup. Dallas ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game. They’ve given up at least 140 rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games, and Tracy should get the bulk of the rushing work. He let you down last week, but I like Tracy’s chances to get back to the RB2 ranks in this one.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): This recommendation is entirely dependent on the status of Breece Hall this week. Hall developed knee soreness during the bye week, and his status for Sunday is genuinely up in the air. With the Jets sitting at 3-8, there’s no need to rush Breece back if the soreness lingers, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this is a multi-week absence. Braelon will serve as RB1 if Hall sits, and Seattle has been just a middling RB defense. They’ve allowed the 17^th-most RB points per game and rank 14^th in run defense DVOA. Hall has averaged 14 rushes and 5.5 targets per game this season. I’m not sure Allen takes on that full workload – fellow rookie Isaiah Davis and 2^nd-year pro Izzy Abanikanda could take a bigger share of the workload than Allen has been getting as RB2 – but I would treat Allen as a fringe RB2 this week if he starts, even with no byes. If your choice is between Allen and a back that plays on Thursday or Friday, and we don’t have clarity on Breece Hall yet, play the Thursday/Friday player. If Hall isn’t out, Allen won’t be worth the wait. Braelon has scored 5+ fantasy points just once in the last 7 games.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 13: @ Atl.): McConkey has been a rock-solid weekly fantasy starter, finishing as a top-30 PPR WR in 6 of his last 8 games, but if you’ve read this column before, you know McConkey does his best work against man coverage – he averages nearly two and a half times as many fantasy points per route run vs man-to-man as he does vs zone – and Atlanta plays man-to-man at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. The Falcons’ pass defense is bad. They rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game, so McConkey should be just fine in fantasy lineups as a fringe WR2 option, but be aware that Quentin Johnston has been the most productive Chargers’ WR vs zone coverage.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 13: vs. Hou.): It appears that Trevor Lawrence is going to play this week, but we saw ahead of the bye that Thomas can produce with Mac Jones under center as well, tallying 5-82 against the Lions with Mac at QB. We saw a dip in Thomas’ production for a couple weeks due to a chest injury and the adjustment to Jones, but he’s still the PPR WR14 on the year and he faces a Houston defense that allows the 6^th-most WR points per game. It’s likely he faces shadow coverage from Derek Stingley in this one. Stingley has been solid this season, but far from unbeatable. If Lawrence returns, Thomas should be a solid WR3 with upside for more. If It’s Mac Jones again, I’d downgrade him a bit.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 13: @ Min.): Harrison has been one of the most maddening players to roster in fantasy football this season. We’ve seen tantalizing upside, but we’ve also seen a scheme that doesn’t always make him the focal point of the passing game. Far too often, he’s been out-targeted by Trey McBride. Still, Harrison Jr. is the clear WR1 and about to face a defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game and was picked apart by the Bears last weekend. Harrison was held below a 20% target share last weekend for the first time since week 1 (not counting his concussion game). I expect the ball to come his way a bit more this week, and in this matchup I’d treat him as a volatile WR2/3 option.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Maye has sneaky QB1 potential facing a Colts’ defense that allows the 13^th-most QB points per game and has been shaky vs. the pass in recent weeks, but I’d view him as more of a mid-to-high end QB2 rather than a QB1. The Colts have allowed 260+ passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games, and Maye has finished as the QB18 or better in every full game he’s played, but many of those weeks included byes for other teams, so there were fewer QBs Maye had to beat out to finish that high. All 32 teams are in action this week. There may be a little bit of extra rushing upside for Maye this week as well. The Colts haven’t faced many mobile QBs this year, but they’ve allowed 40+ rushing yards to 3 of them – Malik Willis, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 13: @ Det.): We’re now two weeks into the OC Thomas Brown era in Chicago, and the results so far have been two of the most efficient performances we’ve seen from Caleb since early October. Things seem to be back on track for the rookie and this offense as a whole, but they run into a buzzsaw this week in Detroit. The Lions’ defense has been playing as well as any unit in the league in recent weeks. Detroit has allowed just 4 QB touchdowns since their bye in week 5, and a total of just 1 touchdown to opposing QBs in their last 4 games. They’ve also held 3 straight opponents below 250 passing yards. I wouldn’t write off Caleb’s ability to keep up his recent strong play, but in this matchup, I still would treat him as just a mid-range QB2.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 13: @ Min.): Benson finished as a top-24 PPR back in both week 9 and week 10, but last weekend was a reminder that he just isn’t involved enough in competitive games. Benson has logged at least 9 touches in 4 games this season, and every one of those games was decided by 20+ points. Arizona is a 3.5-point underdog this week against a Minnesota team that hasn’t been quite as dominant in recent outings as they were early in the year. If the Cards keep this game competitive, Benson will likely be limited to just a few touches. Even if it does turn into a blowout, the Vikings allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. I’m not sure 10 touches makes Benson even an RB3 against that defense.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): There’s no way you can reliably start Estime given the recent RB usage in Denver. Over the last 3 weeks, Estime has seen his snap share go from 45% to 22% to 8% last weekend. It’s possible he suddenly gets a bunch of work again this week, but the Browns allow the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and there are no byes this week. That’s the kind of bet I’d only make if Estime had a good matchup, and I was desperate for a fill-in.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Davis has been as boom-or-bust as can be for a backup running back this season. He’s scored 11+ PPR points in 3 of his last 8 games, but he’s scored fewer than 3 points in each of the other 5. The 49ers have been a dicey run defense, ranking 21^st in run defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-most RB points per game, but Davis hasn’t reached a 25% snap share in a game since week 6. He’s just not getting on the field enough to be counted on in a week with no byes.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 13: @ Det.): Odunze has been much bigger part of the Bears’ passing game over the past month or so than he was early in the year. He’s earned a 24% target share since week 8, averaging 7.8 targets in that span and posting 3 top-40 PPR finishes in spite of scoring zero TDs in those games. I expect his increased usage to continue going forward, but Detroit’s defense has been on a heater for the past several weeks. The Lions have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game for the season, but their recent hot streak has moved them all the way up to 1^st in pass defense DVOA, and the last time they allowed two pass catchers to put up 40+ receiving yards against them in the same game was week 7 against the Vikings. If that pattern holds, how good do you feel about Odunze being the one Bears’ WR to top 40 yards? Odunze is still in play as a WR4 option this week, but he’d have to snap the Lions’ hot streak to pay off on Thursday.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): The Diontae Johnson trade and Bryce Young’s recent improved play have made Legette a viable weekly WR3/4 option, but I’d view him as more of a WR4 than WR3 in this one. The Bucs are certainly a burnable defense – they rank 21^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game – but they play zone coverage at a top-5 rate, and Legette is much better vs. man-to-man. Legette averages more than twice as many fantasy points per route run vs man coverage as he does vs. zone. We know he’s been on the field for close to 100% of the team passing dropbacks in the last 3 weeks, and his recent production makes him a reasonable fantasy start in this good matchup, but his struggles vs. zone are just enough for me to lean against starting him this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 13: vs. LV): Worthy’s production all but vanished in the first two games with DeAndre Hopkins on the roster (he totaled just 1.1 PPR points in those two contests), but he’s seemingly found an equilibrium since, finishing as the PPR WR19 and WR35 in the last two weeks. Xavier is worthy of consideration this week (pardon the pun), but his volume (11 targets and 2 rushes in the last 2 weeks) is low enough that he remains a volatile weekly option. He’s at his best when he hits splash plays – he’s finished as a top-24 receiver 3 times, and he had a catch for 30+ yards in all 3 of those games – but the Raiders don’t allow many splash plays. They’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards and the 2^nd-fewest of 40+. If Worthy doesn’t hit a big play, he’s likely finishing the week as no better than a WR3, and likely worse than that since all 32 teams are in action.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Coleman hasn’t suited up since week 9, but he’s practicing in a limited capacity this week and should be able to return on Sunday. He might not immediately play a full complement of snaps though, and he faces a 49ers’ defense that gets Charvarius Ward back this week and has allowed the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. We saw Coleman have a mini-breakout with PPR WR12 and WR16 finishes in weeks 7 & 8, but he was limited to just 1-21 on 2 targets in week 9. His bread and butter all season has been splash plays, and the 49ers have allowed the 3^rd-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season. There’s upside here – a player with Coleman’s skills playing with Josh Allen always has upside – but I think he’s just a volatile WR4 who is a better option in non-PPR formats.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Vele has established himself as Denver’s clear WR2 behind Courtland Sutton in recent weeks, but his Achilles’ heel remains man-to-man coverage. Vele has finished as a WR3 or better in 3 straight games - a top-20 WR in two of them – but for the season he’s totaled just 4 catches for 22 yards against man coverage, and the Browns play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. I wouldn’t write off Vele completely this week, but I’d view his as more of a PPR WR4 option than WR3 in this one.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 13: @ Car.): McMillan led the Bucs’ receivers in routes run in his return to the lineup last weekend, but he was targeted just twice and finished the game with 1 catch for 11 yards. With Mike Evans back in the mix, it’s going to be harder for McMillan to make an impact on the perimeter, as the running backs and Cade Otton will likely remain heavily involved in the passing game. The Panthers rank just 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Most teams attack them on the ground first. I wouldn’t treat McMillan as anything more than a WR5 option this week.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 13: @ Buf.): Even if I told you to start Pearsall, I can’t imagine you’d listen after he put up back-to-back zeros in his last two games. The expected return of Brock Purdy should help this week, but Buffalo allows the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. He’ll likely see just 4-5 targets or so in this one as the team WR3, so if you start him, you’re betting on him producing with those limited opportunities. He has some big play potential, but it’s tough to roll those dice with no byes to fill in for this week.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): Coker was inactive in week 12, and he’s not practicing ahead of week 13 as of Wednesday. There’s no reason for the Panthers to rush him back after David Moore put up 6-81-1 last weekend, and it’s hard to envision any of Moore, Adam Thielen, or Xavier Legette going to the bench to make room for Coker to play a full-time role this week. If Coker plays, look for him to play a smaller snap share than we’re used to, which makes it hard to start him even against a Tampa defense that allows the 8^th-most WR points per game.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 13: @ Dal.): Theo has put up at least 3 catches and 30 receiving yards in 6 of the last 7 games, but he’s reached 40 yards in only 2 of them, and 10 PPR points in just 1. Dallas is just a middling TE defense, allowing the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, but we haven’t really seen much of a ceiling here. I don’t think Johnson’s outlook changes much if Drew Lock is under center…he’s a mid-range TE2 with around a 6-point PPR floor no matter who starts.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 13: @ NYJ): Barner has filled in well enough while Noah Fant has been sidelined the last few weeks, but he isn’t seeing the kind of workload that can make him a fantasy starter. Fant is practicing in full as of Wednesday, but if for some reason Noah is held out again, Barner has totaled just 42 air yards on 14 targets in the last 3 weeks, hasn’t finished higher than the PPR TE19 in any of those games, and the Jets have allowed the 4^th-fewest TE points per game. He’s a fringe TE2 if Fant sits.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): It’s hard to imagine that Sanders gets cleared to play this week after being carted off with a scary neck injury late in the first half last Sunday, but the only update we’ve gotten so far is that the injury isn’t serious. He was on track to have a solid game against the Chiefs, racking up 3-49 on 3 targets in that first half. If he’s somehow able to suit up this week, I’d view him as at least a mid-range TE2 against a Bucs’ defense that allows the 5^th-most TE points per game. Sanders had finished as a top-15 TE in 4 of 5 games prior to last week, and seemed to be on his way there again before the injury. I would expect Sanders will be out this week, but he’s playable if not.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 13: @ GB): Wright has handled at least 5 touches in all but two games this season, but he’s only topped 4 PPR points once, and that was in a game where De’Von Achane was sidelined. Wright tallied 7 carries last Sunday against New England, but 6 of them came in garbage time after the ‘Phins had opened up a 24-0 lead. With all 32 teams in action this week, a change-of-pace back (who doesn’t catch passes) like Wright doesn’t merit real consideration.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 13: @ NO): Corum was limited to his usual pittance of snaps in week 12. He was on the field for just 10% of the offensive plays against Philly and touched the ball just once. The Saints are a great matchup if Corum had any kind of workload to speak of, but he doesn’t.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): Brooks finally made his NFL debut last weekend, but was limited to just a handful of snaps and 2 rushing attempts as Chuba Hubbard dominated the backfield work as usual. This week’s opponent, the Bucs, are much more giving to running backs than the Chiefs – they allow the 9^th-most RB points per game while KC allows the fewest – but it’s clear the Panthers are going to bring Brooks along slowly. I think 4-5 touches is a reasonable expectation here for Brooks, barring injury for Hubbard.

RBs Sincere McCormick & Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 13: @ KC): I was hopeful for Dylan Laube to play a meaningful role last week with both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White sidelined, but he didn’t log a single offensive snap against the Broncos. Instead, fellow rookie Sincere McCormick was elevated from the practice squad to serve as the RB2 behind Ameer Abdullah, but he didn’t play much either. Abdullah handled nearly 90% of the snaps and McCormick got the scraps. It’s worth nothing that McCormick did manage to put up 33 yards on 5 rushes (Abdullah rushed just 8 times), and the team has talked up getting him more involved going forward, but it’s hard to envision him putting up a useful fantasy performance on an RB2 workload against KC. The Chiefs allow the fewest RB points per game. Alexander Mattison is expected to return this week – he got in a limited practice to start the week, so it’s possible McCormick just splits the RB2 work with Abdullah. Laube isn’t in consideration, and at best, McCormick is a TD dart throw.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 13: vs. LV): The last time Carson Steele scored 3 or more PPR points was week 3, and Andy Reid has said that, barring a setback, Isiah Pacheco will be active against the Raiders. Steele’s already small role is likely shrinking further.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Franklin might have a little extra upside this week since he’s proven to be better vs. man coverage than zone (he averages more than twice as many fantasy points per route run vs. man as he does vs. zone), and the Browns play a lot of man-to-man, but the rookie hasn’t earned more than 4 targets in a game in any of his last 5 contests, and he’s topped 20 receiving yards in just one of them. You can’t reasonably rely on him for more than a couple of targets each week.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 13 : vs. Pit.): The Bengals have tried to make Jermaine Burton happen in the last few weeks, but just have not had success doing so. He got extended run in 2 games that Tee Higgins missed, and then was still in a route on 25% of the team dropbacks in week 11 (his highest mark in any game that Higgins has played), but all of that playing time has resulted in 3 catches for 60 yards on 12 targets. His only path to usefulness is catching a deep ball or a TD, and the Steelers rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Burton’s not a good bet this week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): McCaffrey continues to play about the same amount as Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown, which is to say, not much. He’s been under a 40% route participation rate in 4 of the past 5 games, and he’s been alternating goose eggs with 1-catch performances for the last 7 games. If the pattern holds, he’s due for a zero this week. If it doesn’t, the upside here is still just 1-2 catches. 

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 13 : vs. Ind.): Polk is routinely logging route participation rates in the mid 30’s, and he’s been held below 3 PPR points in 6 of his last 7 games, including goose eggs in 3 of the last 5. His season has been entirely downhill since his game-winning TD against Miami was ruled out of bounds. Before long we may see fellow rookie Javon Baker pass him on the depth chart. Baker set a season-high with a 17% route participation rate in week 12.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 13: @ GB): Washington is getting on the field just enough that he should be on our radar, but he’s averaged just 19 scrimmage yards per game over the last 3 weeks. There isn’t a good reason to start him with all of the firepower ahead of him in the pecking order.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): Corley remains a distant 4th on the WR depth chart in an offense where 90% of the WR targets over the last month have gone to two players – Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. There’s no reason to roll the dice on the 1-2 targets Corley will get this week.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 13: @ NO): After Demarcus Robinson was arrested on suspicion of DUI this week, I thought there was a chance for Whittington to get back into the WR3 mix here if the team held Robinson out of action, but Sean McVay announced that he expects Robinson to be active in week 13. Whittington can continue being ignored. 

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 13: @ Jax.): Stover posted the best game of his career last Sunday, finishing as the TE11 for the week, but over 80% of his fantasy points were scored on the first play from scrimmage – a 19-yard TD catch. He was in a route on just 23% of the team’s passing dropbacks while Dalton Schultz logged a 75% rate. Stover is a TD dart throw who scored a TD last week. The Jaguars are a good TE matchup, but it’s a low-percentage bet that Stover finds the end zone again.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 13 : @ Atl.): JK Dobbins left Monday night’s contest with a  sprained knee ligament, and he’s already been ruled out for week 13. Vidal has been a healthy scratch in every week where both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were active, but he was the clear RB2 during the 4 games that Gus Edwards missed this season. That will likely be the case again with Dobbins out, but it’s worth noting that Gus is a less well-rounded player than Dobbins, so that RB2 role could be larger than it was earlier in the season, and it’s not impossible (though not terribly likely) that he takes over a lead back role. I don’t know that you can start him anywhere this week – Vidal scored fewer than 3 PPR points in 3 of the 4 games Gus missed and the Falcons allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game – but he’s worth a speculative add in deeper leagues in case his role is bigger than we think. He could be a difference maker in a week 15 fantasy playoff matchup when he faces the Bucs.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 13: @ NE): Josh Downs is dealing with an injury and seems like a longshot to play this week. If he sits, that means Mitchell gets to play a full complement of snaps. Yes, Mitchell has more upside when Joe Flacco is at QB, but if we get the version of A-Rich that showed up against the Jets in week 11, Adonai is a swing-for-the-fences option in deep leagues. The Patriots allow the 10^th-most WR points per game, and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. If Downs sits, I expect Mitchell to see at least 4-5 targets, and New England is vulnerable to splash plays – they’ve allowed the 6^th-most completions of 20+ yards this season.

WR Johnny Wilson, PHI (Wk. 13: @ Bal.): With DeVonta Smith sidelined last week, Wilson was in a route on 69% of the team’s passing dropbacks, and while he was targeted just once, that target was in the end zone. Smith isn’t practicing yet this week and seems likely to miss Sunday’s game as well. That would mean Wilson will be on the field quite a bit against the team that allows the most WR points per game. The Eagles were largely in control for most of last Sunday’s game and they were able to lean on the run. That might not be the case in Baltimore. I don’t think Wilson will see more than a few targets, but he’s an interesting ‘anytime TD’ dart throw this week.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Jake Ferguson has already been ruled out for this week, and while that means Luke Schoonmaker will serve as the TE1 on Turkey Day, Spann-Ford has played a significant amount behind him and finished as the PPR TE15 and TE24 over the last two weeks. The Giants have allowed the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game this season, but they rank just 29^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve largely limited tight ends because teams have been able to pick them apart with wide receivers. With Cooper Rush under center, Dallas’ primary passing weapons have been CeeDee Lamb and the tight ends, so I don’t expect them to go completely away from Schoonmaker and Spann-Ford this week. There isn’t a big ceiling here, but don’t be surprised if Brevyn puts up 5-6 PPR points and finishes as a top-24 TE again.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

*A couple updates this morning -

• Mostert is inactive, so J. Wright gets a bump up to RB2 role this week. Wright is still a long shot bet for fantasy production behind De'Von Achane.
• Malachi Corley is a surprise inactive with Lazard back.
• Sincere McCormick isn't technically a rookie, but if he were, I'd have him slotted just below Braelon Allen this week.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the final week of the fantasy regular season, and the NFL schedulers haven’t done us any favors. Week 14 is Bye-pocalypse 2: The Reckoning. 6 NFL teams are off this week, and they’re teams that feature some of the most reliable fantasy weapons in the league this year – Denver, Baltimore, Washington, Indianapolis, Houston, and New England all have the week off.

As we talked about during Bye-pocalypse 1 back in week 12, having 6 teams on byes means you’re digging a little deeper for fantasy starters, and you may have to consider some players you normally wouldn’t. Fill-ins could come from unexpected places, and if you have a playoff spot at stake this week, those lineup decisions become magnified. I can’t make those crucial lineup decisions for you, but I can provide a little guidance if you’re considering any rookies for those spots.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 14…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 14: vs. LV): The Bucs finally gave Irving managers what they wanted in week 12, making Bucky the clear lead back in this backfield. It was the first time all year that he ran more receiving routes than Rachaad White, and it was White carrying the ball in garbage time when the starters were out. Unfortunately, they seemed to reverse course a bit in week 13, with White re-establishing his advantage in passing situations, but it ultimately didn’t matter as Bucky pushed his advantage in the run game to new heights. Irving carried the ball 25 times last Sunday compared to just 11 carries for Rachaad, and while the route participation rate favored White (49% to 33%), Bucky still out-targeted White 3-to-1. None of those usage notes matter nearly as much as what Bucky did with his opportunities. The rookie piled up 185 scrimmage yards last week, his 2^nd week in a row with over 150, and he’s now finished as a top-7 PPR back in 3 straight games. There’s no reason to treat him as anything less than an RB1 this week against a Vegas defense that ranks 22^nd in FTN’s run defense DVOA.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Chi.): Guerendo is a player you should’ve emptied out the FAAB budget for this week after the 49ers placed both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve. Guerendo is now thrust into the starting role in one of the most running back-friendly offenses in the league. The 49ers rank 9^th in the league in rushing attempts per game, and 6^th in yards per rush attempt, and this week Guerendo gets to face a Chicago defense that allows the 10^th-most RB points per game and ranks 30^th in run defense DVOA. Isaac is a lock for 15+ touches, barring injury. I’d be telling you to start him even if there weren’t 6 teams on byes this week, but with so many teams off, Guerendo has clear RB1 upside.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. NO): Tracy’s ceiling has been limited and held back by the Giants’ poor QB play – Tommy Cutlets and Drew Lock have somehow been even worse than Danny Dimes – but Tracy has a very stable workload and a great matchup this week. Tracy has had double-digit touches in 7 of his last 8 games, and the Saints rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game. Tracy’s hold on the starting job is still firm. His 71% snap share in week 13 was his 3^rd-highest of the season, and while the Giants’ offense might not be sustaining drives and getting Tracy 20-touch outings any time soon, a full-time RB1 role against one of the worst run defenses in the league should be enough to make Tracy an easy RB2 this week.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 14: @ KC): McConkey has finished as a top-20 PPR WR in 3 straight weeks and in 4 of the last 6, and this week gets to face a middling KC pass defense that has allowed the 15^th-most WR points per game and ranks 19^th in pass defense DVOA. Ladd was truly amazing in week 13, as he was on the receiving end of 105 of the team’s 115 first half passing yards, and he finished the game with a whopping 52% target share. We know Ladd excels against man coverage – he ranks 5^th in the league with 3.44 yards per route run vs. man – and the Chiefs play man-to-man defense at the 6^th-highest rate in the league. There’s no reason to shy away from starting Ladd this week, especially considering the limited slate of games. One word of warning – McConkey is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury after logging 3 limited practices this week. I expect that he’ll play, but with this game scheduled for Sunday night, you may want to have a backup plan ready to go just in case (Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks, Kavontae Turpin, Andrei Iosivas would all be reasonable options if available).

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 14: @ TB): You already know what to do with Bowers. How many tight ends in the league can draw a 30% target share for even one game? Well Bowers has drawn a 40% or higher share in 2 of the last 3 games, and he topped 30 PPR points in both of those contests. The Raiders know to get him the football, and he’s producing when they do. There’s always the risk of a down game, but no tight end has a higher weekly ceiling right now than Bowers. The cherry on top this week as that he gets a strong matchup with the Bucs, who allow the 7^th-most TE points per game. Bowers is a top-3 TE play this week, and I don’t think he’s #3.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 14: @ Mia.): Breece Hall has been officially ruled out for week 14, which means Braelon Allen likely steps into the RB1 role against a Miami defense that has allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game. My only hesitation in calling him a guy you know you should start is that we don’t know exactly how big his RB1 workload will be, and the Dolphins have been much better against RBs in recent weeks. From what we saw last week, I’d expect fellow rookie Isaiah Davis to play a much bigger role on passing downs. He was on the field for 45% of the team’s long down & distance snaps last weekend compared to just 9% for Allen. That means Braelon is going to have to do most of his work in the run game, and the Dolphins haven’t allowed a running back to rush for 65+ yards against them since all the way back in week 5. There are still 6 byes this week, so any team RB1 is in play as a fantasy starter, but I’d view him as more of an RB2/flex option. If Breece Hall gets held out longer than this week, the Jets do get two plus matchups for RBs during the fantasy playoffs against Jacksonville and Buffalo, so Allen could have big value going forward.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. NO): Starting Nabers hasn’t felt nearly as exciting in recent weeks as it did in September, but he continues to compile his way to useful performances, no matter the QB, and no matter the opponent. Nabers hasn’t finished as a  top-20 PPR WR since all the way back in week 4. He also hasn’t finished lower than the WR26 since week 7. He’s earned a 30% target share in 9 straight games, and week-after-week he finishes as a fringe WR2. This week he faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 8^th-most WR points per game, and I’d expect similar production to what we’ve seen for the last month and a half. Nabers doesn’t get the auto-start treatment this week because he's listed as questionable, and it was reported on Saturday by Adam Schefter that he could play a limited role due to a hip flexor injury. Keep an eye on reports on Sunday morning, but my feeling is that if he’s active, he should probably be in your lineup.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 14: @ Ten.): It’s hard to argue that Thomas’ ceiling isn’t lowered a bit with Mac Jones at QB, and the Titans allow the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, but I’m going to give the rookie the benefit of the doubt in a week with so many byes. Aside from a 2-week stretch where Thomas was playing through a chest injury, he’s been a top-30 PPR WR in 8 of 10 games this season, including in each of the last two weeks when all of his receptions were delivered by Mac. I like his chances to finish as a WR2 this week as the Titans have struggled to contain wideouts in the past few weeks, allowing 6-81 to Justin Jefferson, 3-61-1 to Jordan Addison, 5-92-1 to Nico Collins, 3-72 to Tank Dell, and 8-73-2 to Terry McLaurin all in the last 3 weeks.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): If Harrison is on your roster, you know the drill by now. You know he’s going to be on the field for 90%+ of the snaps, and he’s going to have a 20%+ target share, but a few of those targets are going to be downfield, low-percentage opportunities. If he hits on a couple of those, it’ll be a game you’re happy he was in your starting lineup. If they don’t, you’ll probably be at least a little disappointed. With only 26 teams in action, the upside here is probably too great to leave Harrison on your bench unless you have great options ahead of him. Seattle allows the 16^th-most WR points per game, so this isn’t a matchup to be intimidated by, but you know how the Harrison roller coaster goes. He’s a volatile WR3 this week for me.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 14: vs. LAC): It seems as though Worthy’s connection with Patrick Mahomes may be turning a corner in the last 3 weeks. His playing time has slowly been declining as the team added DeAndre Hopkins and got Juju Smith-Schuster back from injury – Worthy’s 67% route participation rate last Friday was a season-low – but that dipping playing time hasn’t kept him from finishing as a PPR WR3 or better in each of the last 3 games. Xavier has caught 4+ passes in a game 4 times this year, and 3 of them were in the last 3 weeks. In the first 9 games of the year, Worthy caught just 20 passes on 43 targets (a 46.5% catch rate), but over the last 3 weeks he’s caught 13 of 18 (72.2%). We already know Worthy is always a deep threat, but if his recent performances are indeed a signal of an improved connection with Mahomes, he may now be an efficient deep threat. There’s still risk here – the Chargers allow the 13^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA - but with 6 teams sitting at home this weekend, Worthy could easily be worth that risk as a WR3.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 14: @ SF): The Bears have now had Thomas Brown calling the plays for 3 games, and since he took over Caleb has completed 64% of his passes, averaged 275 passing yards and 47 rushing yards per game, and posted a 5-0 TD:INT ratio. In fact, he hasn’t thrown an interception since the team’s week 7 bye. Brown takes over as interim head coach this week, but I don’t expect that to change much with the offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Caleb’s recent run of strong play continues, but I wouldn’t count on a QB1 fantasy day in this matchup even if he does play well. Only 2 QBs all season have thrown for 250+ yards against the 49ers, only 1 has run for 40+ yards, and Josh Allen is the only QB to score 17+ fantasy points against them in their last 7 games. They rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA. It’ll be an uphill fight for Caleb to post a top-15 performance this week, even with such a limited slate of games. Treat him as a mid-range QB2.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: @ LAR): Ray Davis had some fun in the snow last weekend, didn’t he? Davis was on the field for 32% of the offensive snaps (his highest mark in any game James Cook has played), and he piled up 67 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 12 touches in a drubbing of the 49ers. He gets to face a Rams’ defense this week that allows the 9^th-most RB points per game and ranks 21^st in run defense DVOA, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance by Davis. The conditions last weekend were perfect for a big game – the snowy, windy weather in Buffalo made throwing the ball difficult, and the team leaned on Davis much more than usual as a result. Davis had handled 6 or fewer touches in each of the 5 games prior to last week’s snow game. This week, the Bills will be playing indoors in sunny Los Angeles. Davis could see some carries late if the Bills are up big (they’re 5-point favorites), but I would expect him to be closer to the 5-6 touches we were used to than the 12 he saw last week.

RB Jonathon Brooks, CAR (Wk. 14: @ Phi.): Brooks’ playing time increased in his 2^nd game of NFL action. He was on the field for 21% of the team’s offensive snaps, but he handled 9 touches compared to just 12 for starter Chuba Hubbard. The expectation has been that Brooks would handle some of the passing down work that Miles Sanders was handling earlier in the year, and his 3 catches last weekend (compared to zero for Hubbard) would seem to confirm that, but I’m not sure the usage numbers back that up. Hubbard was on the field for 86% of the long down & distance snaps, 100% of the 2-minute drill snaps, and was in a route on 60% of the team passing dropbacks. He’s on the field more than Brooks in the obvious passing situations. That usage is why I’m not more excited about Brooks this week in a game where the Panthers are 12-point underdogs and should be passing a lot…well, that usage and the fact that the Eagles allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. I expect Brooks’ playing time to remain limited in a bad matchup, and I think he has less receiving upside in this one than you might expect.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 14 : @ KC): As expected, Vidal served as the RB2 behind Gus Edwards last weekend with JK Dobbins now on IR, but unfortunately, his role behind Gus was smaller than I expected, especially in the passing game. Vidal played just 27% of the offensive snaps and was in a route on just 21% of the team passing dropbacks. He gave way to Hassan Haskins in long down & distance situations, typically so Haskins could stay in to pass protect. Haskins was in the game for 7 snaps where the Chargers dropped back to throw, and he was pass blocking on 4 of them. Vidal finished the game with just 4 rushes for 20 yards. If he’s not getting more involvement in the passing game, it’s hard to find a reason to start him even in deep leagues, especially against a Kansas City defense that allows the fewest RB points per game.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 14 : vs. Sea.): I mention Benson in the borderline section this week because we’ve seen him handle 9+ touches 4 times this year, and you may be digging pretty deep in the RB pool for fill-ins due to all of the byes, but as I’ve written in this space before, Benson is very game script dependent. Every time he’s handled 9 or more touches, it was in a game that was decided by 20+ points. The Seahawks and Cardinals will be battling for 1^st place in the NFC West this week, and the Cards are favored by 2.5 points. That’s not a wide enough spread in my opinion for you to roll the dice on Benson. If this game stays tight, Benson likely handles just 4-5 touches, and you’d basically just be praying for a touchdown. Trey hasn’t scored 3+ PPR points in any game where he got less than 9 touches.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 14: @ SF): Odunze’s usage has been fairly consistent in recent weeks – he’s been targeted at least 6 times in 6 straight games – but his production has been anything but consistent. He’s only reached double-digit PPR points twice in that 6-game span, and he hasn’t scored a TD since week 3. The 49ers’ playoff hopes seem to be crumbling beneath their feet, but their pass defense hasn’t been to blame for their struggles. They rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. The 49ers also get safety Talanoa Hufanga back from IR this week. If you’re in a pinch for a starter, you could do worse than a WR who is a virtual lock for 6+ targets, but the ceiling just hasn’t been there very often. I’d be trying to find more upside than Odunze has this week if possible.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 14: @ Phi.): The Panthers’ passing game has been improved in recent weeks since Bryce Young returned to the starting lineup, but that improvement hasn’t led to much of a bump in production for Legette. He’s been more consistent than he was early in the year, reaching at least 7 PPR points in all 5 games since Young’s re-instatement as the starter, but he hasn’t topped 4 catches or hit 60 receiving yards in any of those games. He’s been a TD-dependent WR4 and this week he faces a Philly defense that has erased perimeter WRs. Only 4 receivers have reached 10+ PPR points against the Eagles in 8 games since their week 5 bye, and Legette is not on the same level as any of those WRs (Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Zay Flowers). Another game in the realm of 4-50 is probably reasonable to hope for here, but he’ll need a TD to really make you happy.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 14: @ LAR): It’s now been more than a month since Keon Coleman’s last game action, and as of Saturday night it’s still unclear if he’ll return this week. Coleman was wearing a red non-contact jersey at practice all week, and is reportedly still struggling to catch with his wrist injury. The Rams are a decent matchup for WRs – they allow the 12^th-most WR points per game – but I’d expect Coleman to be playing a smaller role than usual if he’s able to play at all. He’s going to need to pull in a long ball to return value this week. The Rams have allowed the 6^th-most completions of 20+ yards this season, so it’s not impossible that Coleman comes through, but it’s a low percentage bet.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 14: vs. LV): McMillan has been a frustrating player in his rookie season. He’s been basically a full-time player in a top-10 passing offense all season long, but he has just 2 games of 6+ PPR points to show for it. When it finally appeared he had an opening to produce with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans hurt, McMillan got hurt himself a week later. Now that Mike Evans has returned, McMillan’s opportunity has likely passed him by. He was in a route on 87% of the team’s passing dropbacks last Sunday (his 5^th time above 80% in 8 games played), but he hasn’t earned a target share higher than 11% in any game that Mike Evans has been fully healthy for this season. He’s on the field enough that he could deliver a bye-pocalypse miracle, but you can’t count on more than a few targets.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 14: @ Phi.): Sanders is practicing this week, and it sounds like he’ll be able to return from his neck injury against the Eagles, but this is not a great matchup for tight ends, as Philly allows the 8^th-fewest TE points per game. They’ve shown cracks in recent weeks, allowing 6-47-1 to Zach Ertz, 6-67-1 to Mark Andrews, and 5-38-1 to Isaiah Likely in the last 3 weeks, so there’s at least some hope for Ja’Tavion, who was starting to pick up steam before his injury. Sanders finished as a top-15 TE in 4 of his last 5 games before the injury, but after Tommy Tremble filled in so admirably last weekend (5-77 on 8 targets), I think there’s some risk that Sanders doesn’t step back into the same 75%+ route participation rate he was seeing prior to getting hurt, at least not for his first game back. He’s a mid-range TE2 for me.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Wright has shown flashes when he’s gotten chances this season, but he was limited to just one snap and zero touches on Thanksgiving as Raheem Mostert largely had the RB2 role to himself. The Dolphins were trailing for most of that game, and it’s possible that game script contributed to Wright’s limited role – Mostert has been more involved in passing situations than Wright all year. Their playing time could flip this week with the Dolphins 6-point favorites against the Jets, but New York allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game, but Wright hasn’t reached 3+ PPR points in a game since week 7. Mostert is listed as questionable this week, but he’s expected to play.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 14: vs. LAC): Steele was on the field for just 4% of the offensive snaps in Isiah Pacheco’s first game back. He’s not worth rostering in anything but deep dynasty leagues.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Chi.): I want to believe that Pearsall has fantasy upside this week against a slipping Chicago defense. He’s logged route participation rates of 64% or higher in all 6 games he’s played this year, but he hasn’t caught a single pass in the last 3 contests. Even with all of the byes this week, it would take a crazy amount of faith in Pearsall to plug him into lineups given the recent lack of production.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 14: @ Phi.): Coker has been sidelined the last two weeks with injury, and in the meantime David Moore and Adam Thielen seem to have cemented their roles in a much-improved Panthers’ passing attack. If Coker returns this week (he’s listed as doubtful), I’d expect him to serve as the WR4 against Philly. If by some miracle he’s able to play a significant number of snaps, the Eagles allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Washington continues to run just enough routes to be intriguing, but he’s at best the 5^th option in a passing game where no one outside of the top 4 options has reached 20 targets, 120 receiving yards, or even 1 receiving TD for the year. Washington was in a route on 46% of the team passing dropbacks last week, nearly double Odell Beckham’s rate of 25%, but he finished with just 2 catches for 8 yards, and this week’s opponent allows the fewest WR points per game.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 14 : @ Dal.): Burton had seen increased playing time for a few weeks prior to last week, but didn’t earn much production in the games with that increased playing time, and last Sunday he was in a route on just 5% of the Bengals’ team passing dropbacks. Burton could see more playing time once the Bengals are officially eliminated from playoff contention, but I don’t expect that increase in playing time to start this week.

WR Jamari Thrash, CLE (Wk. 14: @ Pit.): The Browns have ruled out Cedric Tillman again for week 14, and while that means Thrash will likely be on the field a bit, we saw last weekend that he’s clearly behind Michael Woods for the WR3 spot. Thrash was in a route on just 17% of dropbacks last week while Woods was at 76%. Anything more than a catch or two for Thrash would be a surprise.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 14: @ Ari.): Noah Fant returned from injury last week after a 3-game absence, and that meant Barner was limited to just a 26% route participation rate and 2 targets. He did catch both, for 14 total yards and a TD, putting up more fantasy points in this game than he did in any during Fant’s absence, but you can’t rely on a TD every week on limited playing time. The Cardinals allow the 7^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Reiman has seen a small bump in playing time in recent weeks – he’s been at a 20% or higher route participation rate in each of the last 3 games after only hitting that mark twice prior this stretch – but he’s only got 1 target and 1 reception to show for it. He’s not in consideration without injuries ahead of him.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Spann-Ford played a much more distant second fiddle to Luke Schoonmaker in week 13 than he did in week 12. Brevyn was in a route on just 24% of the team passing dropbacks (Schoonmaker was at 73%), and the rookie wasn’t targeted once. The Bengals are a primo matchup for tight ends, allowing the 2^nd-most points per game to the position, but it appears that Jake Ferguson will return this week, and Spann-Ford’s role isn’t big enough to be relied on even if Ferguson sits again.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. NO): In case you missed the news, Theo is now on injured reserve with a Lisfranc injury and will miss the remainder of the season. It’s the sort of injury that could impact his 2025 season as well – recovery from Lisfranc surgery can take anywhere from 6 months up to a year. It’s a tough break for Johnson, who had reached at least 3 catches and 30 yards in 5 straight games and 7 of his last 8.

Rookies on byes in week 14: QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, QB Bo Nix, DEN, QB Drake Maye, NE, RB Audric Estime, DEN, WRs Troy Franklin & Devaughn Vele, DEN, WR Adonai Mitchell, IND, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE, WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS, TE Ben Sinnott, WAS, TE Cade Stover, HOU

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Isaiah Davis, NYJ (Wk. 14: @ Mia.): Breece Hall has been ruled out for week 14, and could possibly be out longer than that with the Jets’ season over, and that opens the door for Davis to serve as the RB2 for at least this week, and possibly the rest of the way. If last week is any indication, I’d expect Braelon Allen to get most of the early down work, with Davis serving as the passing down specialist. We could see Davis have a bigger workload as the RB2 than Braelon had behind Breece Hall as the Jets try to evaluate their rookie RBs for the future. Even if Isaiah is used exclusively in passing situations, the Dolphins have allowed 3 different backs to catch for 50+ yards in their last 5 games, and have given up 2 RB receiving TDs in that span. If you’re desperate at running back, Davis could be a sneaky option in full PPR leagues, and he could be a Braelon Allen injury away from being a postseason RB1.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 14: vs. Buf.): Corum’s usage probably doesn’t warrant getting him into lineups, but it’s worth noting that his playing time has slowly started to creep up as Kyren Williams has fumbled the ball 4 times in his last 5 games. We’ve seen Corum get the backfield to himself for a full drive here or there, but in week 13 he got the Rams’ first carry of the game and played a season-high 33% snap share in a competitive game with the Saints. He also matched his season-high with 8 rushing attempts. There haven’t been a lot of PPR points coming with that playing time since the Rams don’t throw to their running backs much, but we know this is an offense that can score points, so TD upside is there if Corum can continue to increase his playing time. I’d view him as more of a stash than a player to start this week, but the Rams do face a Buffalo defense on Sunday that allows the 3^rd-most RB points per game. If the Rams lose this week, and next week on the road in San Francisco, they’ll likely fall out of the playoff picture, and we could see Corum take on a much bigger role, and he’s a weekly RB2 if anything happens to Kyren. If you’ve got space to stash Corum, it’s a move worth considering.

RB Will Shipley, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): There’s probably not a good reason to consider Shipley, but in a week like this with so many byes, all ideas are on the table. Philly is favored by 12 points over Carolina, and if things get out of hand, we could see Shipley getting garbage time touches against a Carolina defense that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and allows the most RB points per game. The Eagles have won 2 games this season by more than 20 points. Shipley carried the ball 8 and 9 times in those 2 games. If things get out of hand here, the Eagles could look to get Shipley his first career TD. This is obviously a long shot that should only be considered out of extreme desperation, but there’s a non-zero chance that it works out.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 14: @ Mia.): Corley isn’t a guy you can start this week…Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson still dominate the targets in this offense, but it’s worth being aware that Corley was in a route on 60% of the Jets’ passing dropbacks last weekend. He’s now moved ahead of Xavier Gipson into the WR3 role. The Jets are out of playoff contention, and their future is in flux with Aaron Rodgers potentially retiring or wanting out, so there’s a chance that at some point in the next few weeks they try to take a longer look at their 3^rd-round rookie. At the very least, he could be a great buy low option in dynasty leagues. If Aaron Rodgers chooses to depart the Jets, I’d guess Davante Adams will do the same, possibly opening up more playing time for Corley in year 2. His round 3 draft capital probably won’t carry a ton of weight with a new front office regime, but the WR room will be pretty wide open behind Garrett Wilson if Adams moves on.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! After a long, arduous season, we’ve finally arrived at the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve made enough of the right moves to still have something to play for going forward. Week 14 served as a stark reminder of just how volatile this game can be in a one-week sample size. From Bucky Irving departing early with injury, to Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze both scoring 2 TDs out of nowhere, crazy things can happen when you boil this game down to just one week, and that’s what we do in the playoffs.

If you always lean towards consensus with your start/sit decisions, those decisions are going to work out in your favor more often than not in the long run, but these playoff matches are not played in the long run. My recommendations below are going to lean closer to consensus with some small tweaks here or there if there’s a matchup, player, or role I feel strongly about for the week, but you don’t have to adhere to these recommendations. It’s your team, and everything is on the line this week. Don’t be afraid to go against consensus if you’ve got players you feel strongly about starting. There’s nothing sweeter than getting a win because you went against the grain and made a bold lineup decision that worked out. Just be prepared for a little extra trash talk if those bold choices don’t work out. With all of that in mind, let’s get to this week’s rookies.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 15…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 15: @ NO): Daniels had appeared to hit a rookie wall a few weeks ago, but has righted the ship in his last two games finishing as the QB1 and QB2 in weeks 12 & 13. We know he has a huge weekly ceiling, and while the Saints allow just the 10^th-fewest QB points per game, they also give up a ton of yardage. They’ve allowed the 5^th-most passing yards per game (261 ypg), and they’ve given up rushing lines of 4-49 to Justin Herbert, 10-75 to Bo Nix, 3-29 to Baker Mayfield, and 5-59 to Drew Lock just last week. Daniels should have no trouble putting up both rushing and passing yards in this game. If he throws for 1 TD, he’ll probably be a fringe QB1. Any more than that, and he’s going to be a solid top-10 option. The ceiling here is too big to bench for anything but an elite QB.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 15: vs. LAR): Guerendo is battling an injury suffered late in last Sunday’s game against the Bears, but he practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday and has a real chance to play. If he plays, he needs to be in your starting lineup. Guerendo put up 128 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs against the Bears last week, and the Rams are not much better against the run than Chicago. LA ranks 22nd in FTN’s run defense DVOA and has allowed the 14^th-most RB points per game. Isaac has top-10 upside if he’s active.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Bal.): For 6 consecutive weeks, Nabers has finished no higher than the PPR WR22, and no lower than the WR28. Tommy DeVito stepping back in at QB this week doesn’t change much. The Ravens allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game, and Nabers will almost certainly hit a 30%+ target share again in a pass-heavy game script. If his streak of 20-something finishes comes to an end this week, I think it’s more likely to happen because he scores too many points rather than too few.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. TB): If McConkey plays this week, he should be playing for you. The rookie has finished as a top-30 PPR receiver in 5 of his last 6 games, including four top-20 finishes, and he’s the WR14 in points per game over that span. Tampa Bay allows the 10^th-most WR points per game, so McConkey should have no problem posting a useful performance Sunday as long as he’s able to return from the injury. He should be treated as a WR2 this week.

TE Brock Bowers. LV (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Bowers posted his lowest target share since week 4 last week at just 15%, and he still finished just 1.3 PPR points short of a top-12 finish. I expect a bounce back this week against a Falcons’ defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Even if Desmond Ridder gets the start this week, I expect the Raiders to make a point to scheme the ball to Bowers more often than it went in his direction last week. He’s a top-6 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): Nix posted one of his worst games of the year ahead of the bye against an inconsistent Browns’ defense. He threw for just 1 TD in a game where the Broncos scored 41 points. I like his chances at a bounce back against a mediocre Colts’ pass defense this week. Indy ranks just 18^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20+ fantasy points. It’s a little worrisome that Nix’s rushing upside has all but vanished in recent weeks – he’s totaled 5 or fewer rushing yards in 5 of his last 6 games, but he’s also finished as a top-12 QB in 4 of those games. He’s a fringe QB1 for me this week despite the recent lack of rushing production.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 15: @ Min.): I wouldn’t be thrilled to start Caleb in single QB formats, but think he could be a great QB2 option this week. Williams has posted a 95.0 passer rating or better in all 4 games with Thomas Brown calling the plays, and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in each of the last 3 games, all against defenses that haven’t been allowing passing TDs. He threw for 2 scores last week against the 49ers, something only 4 QBs did before him. The week before that, he threw for 3 TDs against a Detroit defense that hasn’t let any other QB this season throw for more than 1. And the week before that, he threw for 340 yards and 2 scores against these Vikings. He threw half of the passing TDs the Vikings have allowed in their past 6 games. The matchup still isn’t a great one – Minnesota is 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 13^th-fewest QB points per game – but I’m not sure I want to bet against Caleb’s recent hot streak. I’d view him as a high-end QB2 this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 15: @ LAC): Bucky aggravated his back injury last week against the Raiders and aggravated his fantasy managers in the process. Hopefully he can return this week, but he’s not practicing as of Wednesday. If Bucky is able to play, I would treat him as a solid RB2 option. He’s finished as a top-20 back in 6 of his last 7 healthy games, and top-10 in each of his last 3. The Chargers are a tough defense – they allow the 6^th-fewest RB points per game – but two of Bucky’s recent top-20 finishes came against top-8 RB defenses (Baltimore and Atlanta). Unfortunately, the injury is a real concern this week, and Bucky doesn’t play until the late afternoon Sunday. If you have comparable options that play earlier, and we don’t have clarity on Irving’s status yet, start them.

RBs Braelon Allen & Isaiah Davis, NYJ (Wk. 15: @ Jax.): This is contingent on Breece Hall being out again, but both Allen and Davis are viable RB3 options this week in a good matchup. With Hall out in week 14, both Allen and Davis were on the field for more than 50% of the snaps and handled at least 13 touches. They split the playing time almost down the middle. The Jaguars allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, so there should be enough points to be had for both backs. If I had to choose one to start, I’d lean slightly towards Davis, who played the majority of the long down & distance snaps and out-targeted Braelon 6-to-4. He also got 3 opportunities in the red zone compared to two for Allen, but we’re really splitting hairs to pick one. Both are playable if Hall is out again.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 15: vs. NE): If you have Harrison on your roster, you likely have to ride the roller coaster again this week. Harrison has had a lot of ups-and-downs this season, largely due to Trey McBride’s constant presence as the #1 option in the passing game, but Harrison has finished as a WR3 or better in 3 of the last 4 games and gets a favorable matchup this week. New England has allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. He’ll likely face shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, but that hasn’t prevented other WR1s from putting up strong games against the Pats. Per ESPN, New England has allowed the 7^th-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers over the last 8 games. Harrison remains a boom-or-bust WR2/3 option.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr. JAX (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Thomas has been a picture of consistency for much of this season. – he’s been the PPR WR10 since week 4 and finished as a WR2 or better in 6 of 10 games in that span. He should be a solid WR2/3 option this week, but I have a little concern over the matchup and the QB situation. The Jets allow the fewest WR points per game and have a pair of excellent perimeter corners in DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner, and while Thomas has put up strong performances in each of his last 3 games with Mac Jones at QB, there are long stretches where Jones seems to forget Thomas is even on the field. Last Sunday, Thomas finished with 8-86 on 12 targets. Mac Jones threw 31 passes. In the first 21 pass attempts, Thomas had 0 catches on 3 targets. He put all of his production and garnered 9 of his targets in Mac’s final 10 attempts of the game. He didn’t look Thomas’ way until the Jaguars got desperate. If that happens again this week, against this secondary, the production might not live up to what Thomas has been doing in recent weeks. I’d still start him this week, but if you’re torn between Thomas and another option, I might err on the side of the other option.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 15: @ Cle.): Worthy has now finished as a top-36 WR in 4 straight weeks, and while some of those finishes have been aided by bye weeks, he’s pulled in at least 4 catches in each game and has a 75% catch rate in that span (he had just a 46.5% catch rate prior to that stretch). This week he faces the Browns, who play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. Worthy’s target rate vs. man coverage is 10% higher than his target rate vs. zone. The Browns also have allowed the 3^rd-most completions of 20+ yards this season, which plays right into Worthy’s strengths as well. I’d view him as a WR3 with upside to finish even higher if he’s able to catch a deep ball or two.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 15: @ Ari.): I don’t think Maye’s outlook for this week is all that much worse than Caleb Williams or Bo Nix, but unlike that duo, I wouldn’t consider Maye if I were looking for a fringe QB1. We know he’s got a safe floor – he’s finished as a top-20 QB in every full game he’s played this season – but he hasn’t finished higher than the QB12 in any of his last 5 games. In their last 6 games, the Cardinals have allowed just 1 QB to throw for multiple TDs, and just one QB to throw for 250+ yards. The Patriots have a Vegas team total below 20 points this week, so I wouldn’t count on Maye to break through and give you a QB1 performance. I’d treat him as a mid-range QB2.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Bal.): Tracy continues to see the bulk of the Giants’ backfield work, but the offense has somehow regressed since moving on from Daniel Jones. They’ve played 3 games with Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock under center. All 3 were against mediocre or bad run defenses, and Tracy has averaged 15 touches and 73 scrimmage yards per game in those contests.  He salvaged his fantasy days with TDs in the last two weeks, and finding the end zone will be especially important against the Ravens this week. Baltimore ranks 5^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 8^th-fewest RB points per game. I don’t expect Tracy to have the same level of efficiency he’s had in the last 3 games, and with a Vegas team total of just 13 points, counting on any Giant to score a TD this week feels like wishful thinking. Obviously, Tracy is still in the RB3 mix this week due to his workload, but I don’t feel good about his outlook this week.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 15: @ SF): Corum has handled 8 touches in 3 games this season, and 2 of them were in the last 2 weeks. He’s seen his role grow to the point where he has some RB4 appeal on a weekly basis (non-PPR leagues), but it’s not nearly enough to consider him in lineups in most normal 12-team leagues, even against a 49ers’ team that allows the 10^th-most RB points per game.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. NE): The Cardinals have played 5 games this season that were decided by 20+ points, and Benson has handled 8 or more touches in 4 of them. In the last two games where he got to 8+ touches, he finished as an RB2. I’m not saying it’s likely that the Cards will win by 20+ this weekend (they’re 6-point favorites), but the Patriots are an opponent where it’s at least possible. Regardless of the margin, a positive game script favors Benson for the RB2 touches over Emari Demercado, and the Patriots allow the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 28^th in run defense DVOA. It’s a great matchup where Benson should see a little more usage than usual, but it’ll likely take a blowout win for him to get enough work to be at all useful in your lineup.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 15: @ Det.): Davis has handled more than 6 touches just once in the last 7 games, in the snow game against the 49ers. I expect his role to be limited again this week unless the Bills win in a surprising blowout (they’re 2.5-point underdogs in Detroit). This game has the highest projected point total of the week, so there could be some additional TD hope for Davis this week, but the Lions are one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. The matchup seems to favor Ty Johnson for backup work over Davis.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 15: @ Min.): From week 8 through week 13, Odunze earned at least 6 targets every game, but he finished as the PPR WR20 or worse in all 6 of those games. In week 14, he was targeted just 5 times, and he finished as the WR12, scoring his first two TDs since week 3. The volume has been there for Odunze, even if the production hasn’t, and it’ll probably be there again this week. The Bears are 7-point underdogs this week and attempted 48 passes in the first meeting with the Vikings. Unfortunately, that turned into just 5-39-0 for Odunze on 10 targets in that first meeting, even though Minnesota allows the most WR points per game. I’m hopeful he’ll produce more this time around if the volume is similar, but you’re likely going to need a TD for a performance that helps you win this week since he’s averaged just 4 catches and 48 yards per game in his last 7 contests.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 15: @ Det.): Coleman hasn’t played since November 3^rd. He’s practicing this week and looks to be on track to return, but I wouldn’t expect him to jump into a full-time role in his first game back. We know Coleman can provide production via splash plays – 10 of his 22 catches this year have gone for over 20 yards – and the Lions have allowed the 7^th-most completions this season of 20+ yards, so there is upside to chase. Putting him in your lineup means taking a leap of faith that he’ll get enough opportunities to cash in on a couple explosive plays.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Legette has finished outside the top-40 PPR receivers in 3 of the last 4 weeks. Bryce Young’s connection with Adam Thielen and David Moore has been improving in recent weeks, but he and Legette have connected on just 13 of 26 targets over the last month, and pass volume could be a touch lower than usual this week with the Panthers favored to win for the first time in 33 games. The Cowboys allow the 11^th-most WR points per game, but I wouldn’t expect anything beyond the normal 50 or so yards Legette has been putting up in recent weeks. Whether or not he helps your fantasy lineup will depend on if he gets into the end zone. I’d bet against it as the Panthers haven’t thrown for multiple TDs in a game since October.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 15: @ LAC): McMillan’s 4-59-2 performance last week would qualify as at least a mild shock since he hadn’t scored a TD since week 1, and hadn’t topped 40 receiving yards in a game all season. It would take some stones to push in the chips to bet on a repeat performance this week against a Charger defense that ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA. The 7 targets for McMillan last weekend were a promising sign moving forward, but I’m not sure one spike game is enough for me to overlook the other 8 games he played this season and plug him into the lineup with my season at stake. Last week was McMillan’s first finish as a WR3 or better this season.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Sanders returned from his neck injury last week, but as expected he split the workload with Tommy Tremble after Tremble showed out the week prior. Sanders was in a route on 59% of the team dropbacks, but was limited to just 1 target. Dallas allows the 13^th-fewest TE points per game. With a full workload, Sanders is a mid-range TE2, and we don’t know if he’ll have a full workload.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Rattler has started 3 games this season. He was benched with fewer than 7 fantasy points in two of them. He finished as the QB20 for the week in the other, in a week with 4 teams on byes. It would be optimistic to hope Rattler finishes as a top-24 QB this week.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): For a fleeting moment in early November, it seemed Estime was taking over the Denver backfield, but that seems like a distant memory now as Audric has handled just 6 of the Broncos’ 48 backfield opportunities in the last 2 games. You never know how Sean Payton will reshuffle the deck in this backfield, especially after a bye week, but I wouldn’t count on any significant changes for Estime this week. The Colts do allow the 5^th-most RB points per game, so there is upside here if Estime had any kind of significant workload.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 15: @ Hou.): Even with Raheem Mostert sidelined last week, Wright was on the field for just 12 snaps and handled 4 touches. That workload against the Texans’ defense, which allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA, is not a recipe for fantasy success.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 15: vs. LAR): In the last 4 weeks, Pearsall has 1 catch for 5 yards on 5 targets, despite running 84 routes in that span. He’s running wind sprints, and if any WR on this team will get squeaky wheel treatment this week, it’s Deebo Samuel.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Coker has been sidelined for about a month with a quad injury, and in that time the Panthers have been playing their best football of the season. They seem to have the WR roles pretty well worked out, and there isn’t really a great fit for Coker to step back in seamlessly. If Coker takes on a full-time role, David Moore is the likeliest receiver to go to the bench, but Moore plays on the perimeter, and Coker is better suited to the slot, where WR1 Adam Thielen resides. I wouldn’t feel comfortable plugging Coker into lineups in his first week back, even though this is a decent matchup. I’d rather see how his usage shakes out for a week first. His return could serve as a downgrade for Thielen as well.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): Franklin has caught more than 2 passes in a game just once all season. There’s no compelling reason to expect that to change this week.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 15: @ Den.): Mitchell is mostly an afterthought whenever the other Colts receivers are healthy, and Josh Downs looks ready to return this week after missing the team’s week 13 contest. If Downs somehow does sit again, Mitchell is nothing more than a WR5 dart throw against a Denver defense that allows the 11^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 15: @ Hou.): Washington has been more involved in recent weeks, totaling 12 targets in the last 5 weeks, but he’s topped 20 scrimmage yards just once all season. The floor is low, and there isn’t much of a ceiling to chase.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 15: @ NO): McCaffrey has totaled just 5 catches in the last 7 games and hasn’t hit 5 PPR points in a game since week 3.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 15: @ Ari.): Polk has earned just 5 total targets in the last 5 games. There’s nothing to see here.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 15 : @ Ten.): Burton has earned zero targets on 8 routes run in the last 2 weeks, and faces a Titans’ defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 15: @ Jax.): Corley went from a 60% route participation rate in week 13 to being a healthy scratch in week 14 as Allen Lazard returned from IR. The Jets might change things up now that they’re officially eliminated from playoff contention, but Corley is off the radar for now.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 15 : vs. TB): Vidal’s role grew dramatically in LA’s 2^nd game without JK Dobbins, as he was on the field for 53% of the offensive snaps. He was still out-carried by Gus Edwards 10-to-8, but he ran 5 more receiving routes than Edwards and was on the field significantly more in passing situations. This week’s opponent, Tampa Bay, allows more RB receptions and receiving yards than any other team in the league. The Chargers don’t throw to running backs all that often, but JK Dobbins averaged 3 targets per game this year. If Vidal can earn 3+ targets this week, and be close to a 50-50 split in carries with Edwards again, he has RB3 upside in this matchup.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): Vele was a disappointment in week 13, putting up just 1-16 on 4 targets after finishing as a WR3 or better in the 3 games prior, but I like his chances at a bounce back performance coming out of the bye. Vele has excelled against zone coverage this season, averaging nearly a half a PPR point per route run against zone, and no team plays zone at a higher rate than the Indianapolis Colts. The Browns are a man-heavy pass defense, so it wasn’t a shock that they were able to slow Vele down a couple weeks ago. The Colts should have a lot more trouble containing him. I expect he’ll score double-digit PPR points this week, and he’s a passable WR4 if you don’t love your other options this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.