Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re in the home stretch of the season and have arrived at the Fantasy Semifinals for most leagues. Hopefully you still have teams alive and kicking this week and haven’t been hit by the injury bug lately. Plenty of prominent fantasy players have been sidelined in recent weeks, especially at the RB position, and you may be looking at some rookies for replacements, so I’m here to tell you what to expect from them.

I want to reiterate something I said in this space last week – the recommendations below are going to lean towards consensus with some adjustments for matchups or players I feel strongly about. If you follow the recommendations over the long haul, they’re going to work out more often than not, but at playoff time, fantasy football is very much a weekly game, and crazy things can happen in a one-week sample. It’s your lineup. Make the decisions that you can live with if they work out or don’t when choosing who to start.

Pay attention to schedules this week. Once again, the NFL decided that we need more standalone games, so there are two games on Saturday this week in addition to the normal time slots for the week. Make sure you know what time your players play, especially if they’re questionable, and have backup options available that play at the same time or later as replacements. Also, make sure to check the weather for the games. You’d hate to be eliminated because you started a QB in a snow game.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 16…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): Daniels has finished as a top-7 QB in each of his last 3 contests, and has only finished lower than QB12 three times in 14 full games played this year. It’s true one of those three games was against these Eagles in week 11, but the Eagles allowed QB8 and QB6 finishes in the next two games following that showdown, so they’re not invulnerable, and you’ll be miserable if you bench Daniels and he posts a top-5 performance. It’s not a great matchup for Jayden, but I think you have to start him even if you’re uncomfortable with it.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 16: @ Dal.): Irving has handled at least 17 touches and totaled over 110 scrimmage yards in each of his last 3 healthy games, and this week he gets to face a Dallas defense that ranks 28^th in FTN’s run defense DVOA. Bucky has been a top-18 PPR finisher in 7 of his last 8 healthy games, and the Cowboys have given up 20+ PPR points to 6 different backs this season and allow the 6^th-most RB points per game. Don’t overthink this. Bucky is a high-end RB2, even while splitting the workload with Rachaad White.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 16: @ Mia.): Guerendo picked up a hamstring injury at some point in the last week, but if it doesn’t keep him out of this week’s game in Miami, he should be a solid RB2. He handled 85% of the rushing attempts last week and was in a route on 65% of the team passing dropbacks. Monitor the injury, but if Isaac plays, he should see 15+ touches against a Miami defense that ranks 24^th in run defense DVOA.

Update: It was reported Thursday that Guerendo is unlikely to play due to the hamstring injury. Make other plans.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 16: @ Atl.): Nabers posted his first WR1 finish since back in week 4 this past weekend. It was great to see that ceiling return for the rookie phenom, but he’s had an extremely safe floor and has a decent matchup this weekend. Nabers has finished as a PPR WR3 or better in every game this season and hasn’t finished lower than the WR28 since week 7. The Giants’ offense is less than exciting, and they ‘ve rifled through 4 different QBs this year, but none of that has prevented Nabers from being a valuable fantasy starter each and every week. The Falcons rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and are not a matchup to run from. Nabers is a high-end WR2 for me this week, no matter which QB is under center.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 16: @ LV): Something apparently clicked for Thomas and Mac Jones down the stretch in week 14 when Thomas was targeted 9 times in Jones’ final 10 passes of that game, because the connection carried over to last Sunday when Thomas was peppered with 14 targets (a 32.6% target share). The Raiders don’t give up a ton of WR points – they allow the 9^th-fewest per game – but they rank just 21^st in pass defense DVOA and Thomas has finished a s top-20 PPR receiver in 3 straight games, with every catch in that span being delivered by Mac Jones. Thomas is a top-10 receiver for the season, and he needs to be in your lineup this week.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Denver allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game, but I don’t expect that to be a problem for McConkey this week. I’ve waxed poetic in this column about McConkey’s ability to cook man coverage, and the Broncos play man-to-man at the 5^th-highest rate in the league, per PFF. More importantly, since McConkey spends most of his time in the slot, he’ll be able to avoid Patrick Surtain Jr.’s coverage. Surtain hasn’t lined up in the slot for more than 7 snaps in any game this year. McConkey has finished as a WR2 or better in 4 straight games, and the Broncos matchup isn’t as tough as it looks on paper.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Week 15 was a sad one if you have Brock Bowers on your roster. He was limited to just 3-35 on 6 targets with Desmond Ridder at QB. Hopefully it didn’t knock you out of your fantasy playoffs, because he gets Aidan O’Connell back and a good matchup in week 16. O’Connell is practicing in full as of Wednesday, and the Jaguars allow the 8^th-most TE points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. With O’Connell at QB in a good matchup against Kansas City, Bowers put up 10-140-1 on 14 targets. I wouldn’t necessarily count on that strong of an outing here, but I wouldn’t let the last couple weeks deter me from firing up Bowers in lineups this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Tyrone Tracy, Jr., NYG (Wk. 16: @ Atl.): Tracy’s floor hasn’t been quite as safe since Daniel Jones was jettisoned by the Giants. He’s been held to 13 or fewer touches in 3 of the 4 games since Jones was released and held below 10 PPR points in two of them, but I like his chances to get on track this weekend against an Atlanta defense that has allowed a RB to reach 15 PPR points against them in 8 of their last 9 games. The Falcons have been especially vulnerable to receiving backs, giving up a league-high 5.9 receptions per game to RBs (tied with Buffalo), and Tracy has seen his receiving usage increase with Jones gone. From week 5 (Tracy’s first game as starter) through week 10 (Jones’ last game with New York), Tracy earned a 9% target share. He’s been at 10% or higher in each individual game since then. I’d view Tracy as a RB3 this week that I’d prefer to have in the lineup if I have room, especially in PPR formats.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 16: @ Car.): You know the drill with Harrison. He’s going to give you usage that can result in a week winning performance – a 90% route participation rate, a 20%+ target share, a 40%+ air yardage share – but it can also result in a dud if the deeper throws don’t connect. The good news: The Panthers rank 30^th in the league in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Harrison has also caught nearly half of the Cardinals’ passing TDs this season (7 of 15) and the Panthers have given up multiple passing TDs in 60% of their games this year (9 of 15). I’d say he has better TD upside than usual, and a better chance at downfield success than usual. He’s an upside WR3 for me.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Worthy got some good news on Thursday that QB Patrick Mahomes is off of the injury report and will play this weekend against the Texans. Mahomes and Worthy have had a great connection in recent weeks, with Worthy finishing as a WR3 or better in each of the last 5 games. There’s reason to be a little concerned for Worthy with the news that Hollywood Brown is being activated from IR this weekend, but I’d expect Brown’s playing time to be limited after such a long layoff, and Worthy should remain safely above a 70% route participation rate. This week’s opponents, the Texans, have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game, and while a lot of the media focus will be on DeAndre Hopkins facing his old team, I expect Worthy to keep up his strong play. We may see Xavier’s playing time or targets take a hit as Hollywood gets ramped up, but for at least this week, I’d feel comfortable starting Worthy as a WR3.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 16: @ Dal.): This is going to feel like point chasing after McMillan finished as a top-20 WR in each of the last two weeks, but it seems like a genuine change has happened in the Tampa offense, and McMillan is now a featured weapon. It was clear early on this season that the team liked him – he logged 80% or higher route participation rates in each of the first 3 weeks before battling a couple different injuries in the middle of the season, but he seems to finally be back at full strength and has taken his proper place as the #2 target in this passing attack behind Mike Evans. McMillan has been targeted 13 times in the last 2 weeks, and he turned those targets into 9-134-3, and this week faces a Dallas defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. Jalen will primarily match up with Amani Oruwariye, who has allowed 0.65 PPR points per route run into his coverage across 108 coverage routes. It’s the highest mark allowed by any projected starting corner this week. There’s still plenty of risk here, but I like taking a swing on McMillan as a WR3 if you’ve got him.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Caleb had shown signs of life in the immediate games after Thomas Brown took over as play-caller, but he’s gone backwards the last two weeks in blowout losses to the Vikings and 49ers where the offense was virtually non-existent in the first half. He still managed to throw at least 1 TD in each game, but a terrible yardage total and no rushing resulted in a QB22 finish last week. The Lions could be a great bounce back spot. Caleb posted a QB4 finish against them on Thanksgiving, throwing for 256 yards and 3 scores, and running for another 39 yards, and the Lions’ defense has taken huge injury losses since then. There’s upside for a top-10 finish, but it’s hard to erase the last two weeks from my memory. I still like him as a high-end QB2 this week, but would be gun-shy about pulling the trigger in 1-QB formats.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 16: @ LAC): It’s been a dicey couple of weeks for Bo Nix. His last two performances have included 5 interceptions and his two lowest single-game passer rating marks since week 2. He also threw 4 TDs in those games, so it hasn’t all been bad, but overall, the regression has been obvious. I’m not sure this is a great get-right spot for the rookie against a Charger defense that ranks 7^th in pass defense DVOA. Nix will still likely give you solid QB2 production, but I would probably be seeking other options in 1-QB leagues. We did see him finally run the ball a bit last week, but he managed just 23 rushing yards. It was his highest mark in 5 games, but it’s not the kind of total that moves the needle in fantasy.

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 16: @ Buf.): Things don’t look great for Maye this week on the surface. The Pats are 14-point underdogs with an implied Vegas total of just 16.25 points, and the weather will be frigid. Despite being picked apart by Jared Goff last weekend, the Bills defense allows the 10^th-fewest QB points per game. With all of that said, Maye will probably still find his way to a high-end QB2 finish this week. He’s played 8 full games this season, and hasn’t finished lower than the QB18 in any of them. I wouldn’t feel great about starting him this week, but he’s probably a fine QB2, though I wouldn’t count on a ceiling week.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 16: vs. NE): I’m very tempted to tell you to start Davis this week, but just can’t quite bring myself to do it. The matchup is a good one – the Bills are 14-point favorites, so there should be ample garbage time, and the Patriots allow the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. The weather report (freezing and maybe snowy) is ideal for a ground & pound game plan that favors Davis, but the recent breakout of Ty Johnson (178 scrimmage yards in the last 2 weeks) has me worried that this backfield is going to be a three-headed monster this week. Davis has handled more than 6 touches just twice in the last 8 games and has handled more than 12 touches just once all year. To plug in Davis as your RB3 this week means relying on him to produce on what will likely be 12 or fewer touches. There are reasons for optimism, but the downside risk is big.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 16: @ LAC): Jaleel McLaughlin has been ruled out for week 16 after leading the Broncos in backfield touches in each of the last two games, opening the door for Estime and Javonte Williams to play a bigger role this week against a slipping Chargers’ run defense. It’s hard to say definitively which back will benefit the most. In the last 2 weeks while McLaughlin led the way, Javonte out-touched Estime 13-to-9, but I fear that Sean Payton will take the dreaded hot-hand approach this week, and it wouldn’t shock me if he gets Blake Watson into the mix as well. The Chargers have allowed 6 different running backs to score 12+ fantasy points against them in the last 5 games, but it’s hard to count on Estime, or any Denver RB for that matter, to get enough work to be reliably counted on with your season at stake. LA has still allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game in spite of their recent struggles.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Vidal played more than 50% of the offensive snaps for the 2^nd straight game last weekend, but he’s totaled just 7.6 PPR points in those two games and faces a Denver defense that allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. With just 4 targets in the last two weeks on 31 routes run, it’s hard to envision Vidal doing a ton of damage as a receiver, so you’re counting on rushing production against one of the best run defenses in the league. I’d treat Vidal as an RB4 this week.

RBs Braelon Allen & Isaiah Davis, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Allen and Davis were both limited practice participants on Wednesday while Breece Hall is off the injury report entirely this week. It looks as though all 3 are going to be active against a middling Rams’ defense that allows the 15^th-fewest RB points per game. Even if the Jets want to roll back Breece’s touches with the team out of playoff contention, I’d guess the backup work ends up divvied up between Allen and Davis, making both unplayable options in your fantasy playoffs. Breece Hall is the only back here you should be considering this week.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 16: vs. NE): Coleman returned from a month-long layoff due to a wrist injury last weekend, and he handled a 54% route participation rate and 2 targets in his return. He did turn one of those targets into a 64-yard catch, but that’s not something you can count on every week. The Bills have leaned more heavily on their run game in recent weeks, with at least 30 rushing attempts in 3 of their last 4 games. Some of that has been due to game script, but as 2-TD favorites this week the game script should favor the run again, and the frigid weather should as well. The wind chill temperature is forecasted to be in the single digits for this game. Coleman is always a threat to hit a big play, but this looks like a week where that big play is less likely. Coleman is a boom-or-bust WR4 option that feels likelier to bust this week.

WRs Jalen Coker & Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Ari.): Legette is week-to-week with a groin injury and appears to be on the wrong side of questionable this week, but Coker is coming off a breakout return to the lineup where he posted 4-110-1 on 6 targets against Dallas, with most of the damage coming on an 83-yard TD. The Cardinals aren’t likely to give up a similar big play. Arizona has allowed the 6^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season, and has allowed just 6 receivers to hit 60 yards against them in their last 9 games. Coker is in play as a WR4 option, but there’s plenty of risk here in taking last week’s performance as a sign of things to come. If Legette plays, Xavier is just a WR5 option at best.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Odunze has earned at least 6 targets in 7 of his last 8 games, but he’s finished as a top-30 PPR WR just twice in that span (and one of those was in the game with fewer than 6 targets). Detroit’s defense is a walking MASH unit, and their CB1 Carlton Davis was just placed on IR this week. Odunze will face off primarily with Kindle Vildor, who has been Detroit’s most vulnerable corner of their projected starters this week, so there’s some extra upside for him, but he just hasn’t shown to be reliable enough to be anything more than a WR4 option, even in this matchup.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 16: @ LAC): I’ve talked in this column a lot about how Vele is much better against zone coverage than man. I trusted Vele last week against a defense that plays more zone than any other team in the league, and he rewarded that faith with zero catches on 1 target. Prior to last week, Vele was averaging a 22% target rate a 0.47 PPR points per route run vs. zone coverage for the year. I’m not going back to the Vele well this week, even though the Chargers play zone at the 5^th-highest rate. Vele is just a floor play option if you’re digging deep at WR this week. He has just one catch for 16 yards in the last 2 weeks and has scored just 1 TD all year.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Ari.): The Panthers haven’t allowed Sanders to go back to his full time as the TE1 since his return from a neck injury. He’s been below a 60% route participation rate in each of the last two games and has 0 catches on 2 targets to show for it. You can’t count on him against an Arizona defense that allows the 5^th-fewest TE points per game.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 16: @ GB): I’d expect Rattler to get the starting nod over Jake Haener this week at Lambeau – he did give the team a lift in relief last weekend and led a comeback effort that fell 2-points short against Washington – but I wouldn’t even consider him as a QB2 option this week. The Saints have been more than willing to pull QBs not named Derek Carr if they’re not playing well (They’ve done it 3 times this season in 5 games that Carr has missed), and Rattler has hit 200 passing yards in just 1 of his 4 appearances this year and thrown multiple TDs in none. The Packers allow the 5^th-fewest QB points per game.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 16: @ NYJ): Corum’s playing time had been creeping up in recent weeks (he logged 8 carries in both week 13 and week 14), but he was limited to just 9 snaps in week 15 in San Francisco. He did touch the ball 5 times on those 9 snaps, but you can’t expect reliable production on such limited playing time.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Wright has logged 5 touches and 16 scrimmage yards in the last 3 weeks combined. He’s been relegated to RB3 behind Achane and Mostert, and is just playing a few nominal snaps a week.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 16: @ Mia.): Pearsall has totaled just 4.1 PPR points in the last 5 games combined despite logging route participation rates of 64% or higher in all 5. Maybe the 49ers will give him a longer look once they’re officially eliminated from playoff contention, but you can’t confidently start him this week.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 16: vs. Ten.): Mitchell has been in a route on about 50% of the team passing dropbacks in the last 2 weeks, and he has negative-1 PPR point to show for it. Alec Pierce is in the concussion protocol this week, so there’s a solid chance that Mitchell will serve as the WR3 against Tennessee, but he just hasn’t had much of a connection with Anthony Richardson. The Titans allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Mitchell has caught just 7-of-28 targets from A-Rich all season, and just 2-of-11 since Richardson reclaimed his starting job from Joe Flacco. If you start Adonai, you’re just praying for a deep ball. That deep ball is a little likelier if Pierce is out, but it’s still a very low percentage bet.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): McCaffrey was limited to a season-low 11% route participation rate in week 15. He’s totaled just 12 targets and 12.4 PPR points in his last 9 games combined.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk.16: @ Buf.): Polk continues to run a route on about a third of the team dropbacks each week, but he’s scored zero fantasy points in 5 of his last 7 games.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

QB Michael Penix, Jr., ATL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): I can’t in good conscience tell you to start Penix this week in his first NFL start with your season on the line. He’s a complete wild card this week. He could play great, or he could play terribly, or anywhere in between. The matchup is a soft landing spot for his first start – the Giants rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-most QB points per game, so there’s reason to like Penix as a QB2, but that doesn’t change that it’s a roll of the dice. I expect the Falcons to try to lean as heavily on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier as possible to take the pressure off Penix. Anything over 200 passing yards and a TD would be a successful debut for Penix this week.

RB Sione Vaki, DET (Wk. 16: @ Chi.): The Lions lost David Montgomery to a torn MCL last weekend, and while that likely means Jahmyr Gibbs will play the majority of the offensive snaps, I expect Vaki to pick up the slack in the run game. The Lions are nearly a touchdown favorite against a Bears’ team that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and allows the 5^th-most RB points per game. There’s plenty of risk here. Vaki could be behind Craig Reynolds, or Jahmyr Gibbs could just get fed 90% of the backfield work, but I think using Vaki as the change of pace to Gibbs is the choice that makes the most sense. If Detroit is able to play from a couple scores in front, Vaki could see double digit touches, which is plenty of opportunity to do damage against the Bears. He’s got sneaky RB3/4 upside if things break his way.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 16: @ Car.): Benson missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury, so this could prove to be moot, but if Benson plays, there’s a lot to like about a matchup against the Panthers with no Emari Demercado around. There’s a chance the team allows DeeJay Dallas to handle Demercado’s passing down work - Dallas played 42% of the long down and distance snaps in week 15 – but Benson had out-touched Dallas 5-to-1 last week before suffering his ankle injury. This matchup with Carolina sets up more as a game with extra rushing opportunities rather than passing, and that heavily favors Benson over Dallas. The Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites, and the Panthers are the worst run defense in the league. James Conner will still handle the lion’s share of the backfield work, but Benson could get extra run if he’s able to suit up this week. He’s not really an option outside of really deep leagues, but the upside is there this week.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Washington’s role as the clear WR3 on the Dolphins was cemented this week when the team unceremoniously said goodbye to Odell Beckham, Jr., but he could be moving even higher up the depth chart this weekend with Jaylen Waddle battling a knee injury. Washington logged a 70% route participation rate last weekend after Waddle exited in the 1^st half, and he finished the day with 5-52 on 6 targets. The 49ers aren’t a great matchup – they rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-fewest WR points per game – but if Waddle sits, Washington has some PPR upside as a WR5 option.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): Zach Ertz left last weekend’s game with a concussion, and while Sinnott has largely been buried behind John Bates as the TE3 on the Commanders’ depth chart, it was Sinnott they turned to after the injury. The rookie ran a route on 54% of the team passing dropbacks last weekend, compared to just 20% for Bates. He was only targeted once, but if Ertz misses this week, Sinnott should have a full week of practice as the TE1 and should serve as the starter in his place. The Eagles are a tough matchup – they allow the 6^th-fewest TE points per game – but if you need a TD dart throw in a 2-TE league, you could do worse than Sinnott.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 16: @ Car.): I’m not sure there’s anything you can do to utilize this information, but Reiman has earned 5 targets in the last 3 games, and the Panthers have given up 10 tight end receiving scores this year – only one of which was scored by a tight end currently in the top-20 fantasy tight ends for the season (Zach Ertz). They’ve given up TDs to players like Nate Adkins, Adam Trautman, Ben Sinnott, Foster Moreau (x2), and Grant Calcaterra. If there’s ever a matchup for an unheralded backup tight end to get into the end zone, this is the one to do it. I’m not sure you can even find a book offering odds on a ‘Tip Reiman anytime TD’, but if you can, the Panthers’ track record against tight ends says it’s probably worth throwing a couple dollars on, though it would be an especially cruel blow to Trey McBride, who has zero TD catches for the year.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.